The S&P/TSX SmallCap Index rallied 5.1 per cent in November, closing out the month at a record high. Surging gold and silver stocks helped the index outperform the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index, which advanced a respectable 3.7 per cent.
The SmallCap Index’s strong performance was concentrated in three sectors. The materials sector rallied 15.1 per cent, communication services jumped 5.5 per cent, and the energy sector gained 4.3 per cent.
Amongst the sector laggards were utilities, technology, consumer discretionary, industrials, health care and real estate with negative price returns of 9.4 per cent, 8.4 per cent, 4.9 per cent, 4.6 per cent, 3.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively.
Year-to-date, the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index is up 43.9 per cent as of Nov. 28. In comparison, the S&P/TSX Composite Index delivered a price return of 26.9 per cent.
The top 10 performers in the TSX SmallCap Index during the month were:
- Aris Mining Corp. (ARIS-T), up 42 per cent
- Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T), up 38 per cent
- Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM-T), up 36 per cent
- Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T), up 35 per cent
- PMET Resources Inc. (PMET-T), up 35 per cent
- Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T), up 35 per cent
- Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T), up 33 per cent
- Discovery Silver Corp. (DSV-T), up 32 per cent
- Lithium Argentina AG (LAR-T), up 31 per cent
- Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T), up 28 per cent
Stocks with the largest positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- Cogeco Inc. (CGO-T), up 40 per cent
- Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF-T), up 30 per cent
- Stingray Digital Group Inc. (RAY-A-T), up 29 per cent
- Baytex Energy (BTE-T), up 25 per cent
- Sprott Inc. (SII-T), up 24 per cent
- Extendicare (EXE-T), up 23 per cent
Looking ahead, historically December has delivered mixed results but tilted to the upside. The S&P/TSX Composite Index has rallied in six of the past 10 years, and in 14 of the past 20 years. Most recently, the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index declined 3.6 per cent in 2024, advanced 3.4 per cent in 2023, fell 2.1 per cent in 2022, climbed 1 per cent in 2021 and rallied 5.5 per cent in 2020.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX SmallCap Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income).
The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value. Data is as of Fri. Nov. 28.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return.
In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
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