2026 started off strong with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing at a record high of 33,176 on Jan. 28. However, during the last two trading sessions of the month, the index plunged over 1,200 points, erasing most of its month-to-date gains. The index closed out the month at 31,924 with a modest 0.67-per-cent price return.
In January, six sectors delivered positive price returns and five sectors reported losses. Sectors that rallied were energy, materials, communication services, utilities, real estate and industrials with price returns of 10.6 per cent, 8.9 per cent, 3.6 per cent, 1.8 per cent, 1.4 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. Sectors with the largest declines were technology, consumer discretionary, health care, consumer staples and financials with negative price returns of 17.6 per cent, 5.4 per cent, 4.4 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
The top 10 performers in the TSX Composite Index in January were:
- Energy Fuels Inc. (EFR-T), up 53 per cent
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T), up 48 per cent
- MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T), up 44 per cent
- Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T), up 37 per cent
- 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T), up 36 per cent
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T), up 35 per cent
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T), up 34 per cent
- Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T), up 33 per cent
- Sprott Inc. (SII-T), up 24 per cent
- First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG-T), up 24 per cent
Stocks with material positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM-T), increased 45 per cent to $18.90 from $13.02
- Taseko Mines (TKO-T), increased 45 per cent to $10.56 from $7.28
- Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T), increased 41 per cent to $28.39 from $20.14
- First Majestic Silver (AG-T), increased 41 per cent to $33.40 from $23.72
Outside of the materials sector, the target price for the following consumer stock jumped.
- Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T), increased 26 per cent to $151.31 from $120.39
As of Jan. 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.9 times the 2026 consensus earnings estimate, according to Bloomberg. Earnings estimates have been rising, albeit only slightly, with earnings growth of 15.3 per cent now expected over the next 12 months.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income). The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
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