March was a volatile and challenging month for equity investors. The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed out the month with a loss of 4.6 per cent with only one sector delivering strong returns – the energy sector.
In March, three sectors reported gains. Energy, technology and utilities delivered positive price returns of 7.6 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively. Sectors detractors were materials, consumer discretionary, health care, industrials, real estate, financials, consumer staples and communication services with negative price returns of 16.6 per cent, 8.5 per cent, 8.4 per cent, 7.3 per cent, 6 per cent, 3.2 per cent, 2.7 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.
The top 10 performers in the S&P/TSX Composite Index in March were:
- Strathcona Resources (SCR-T), up 41 per cent
- Boralex (BLX-T), up 32 per cent
- Vermilion Energy (VET-T), up 31 per cent
- Parex Resources (PXT-T), up 28 per cent
- Athabasca Oil (ATH-T), up 28 per cent
- Bird Construction (BDT-T), up 25 per cent
- Cenovus Energy (CVE-T), up 21 per cent
- International Petroleum (IPCO-T), up 21 per cent
- Methanex (MX-T), up 20 per cent
- Suncor Energy (SU-T), up 19 per cent
Stocks with material positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- SSR Mining (SSRM-T),increased 31 per cent to $57.27 from $43.69
- CES Energy Solutions (CEU-T), increased 30 per cent to $20.19 from $15.56
- Brookfield (BN-T), increased 29 per cent to $71.92 from $55.66
- Bird Construction (BDT-T), increased 25 per cent to $43.63 from $35
- Aecon Group (ARE-T), increased 24 per cent to $44.36 from $35.67
As of March 31, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.6 times the 2026 consensus earnings estimate, down from 17.8 times last month, according to Bloomberg. Earnings estimates have been rising with earnings growth of 19.65 per cent expected over the next 12 months, up from 16.1 per cent forecast last month.
Year-to-date, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 3.3 per cent led by strength in the energy sector with a price return of 29 per cent.
Now, here’s a look at analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index grouped by sector and ranked according to their expected price returns (excluding dividend and distribution income). The posted target price for each security is an average of all available target prices from analysts. A target price typically reflects an expected share or unit price 12 months from now based on an analyst’s financial modelling, such as a discounted cash flow or sum-of-the-parts model. For the yield provided, Bloomberg calculates this figure by annualizing the most recent announced dividend or distribution value.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier (extreme target price) can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low. Don’t let a huge projected gain lure you into a position – it is critical to look at the company and industry fundamentals.
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