Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
El Nino strikes crop prices
Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson forecasts higher global crop prices that will benefit these related stocks,
“We believe higher crop prices are on the way, driven by a variety of factors ranging from the fallout of the Iran war to a Super El Niño formation by the end of the year. Rising crop prices into ‘27 are a good set-up for fertilizer stocks, which benefit from improving farmer margins and therefore NPK crop input investment. On that basis, we recommend a basket of NA fert stocks as they bottom post spring and Iran war: CF, MOS, and NTR. But, it’s not all good news, as higher crop prices will pressure ethanol margins, livestock margins, and ultimately, food prices. Geopolitical disruptions add further pressure through transport, energy, and packaging. For the food producers, we expect some level of input cost inflation to materialize in ‘27, incremental to those already surfacing in the supply chain. While this dynamic typically points to owning grocers over food producers, we believe this is outweighed by competitive concerns at retail. We recommend all of MFI, AGTF, PBH and SAP, though profitability risks lead us to prefer other names (ATD, DOL) in the consumer sector.
Higher for longer crude
BofA Securities commodities and derivatives strategist Francisco Blanch explains why crude prices could stay higher for longer,
“A full reopening of Hormuz could mean Brent prices average $82/bbl this year, compared to our prior expectation of $93/bbl … Clearing mines and restoring flows to normal levels is likely to take months, not days, given the logistical challenges, implying that oil markets could remain in deficit until 4Q26. We estimate that production losses since the start of the war have averaged 11–14 million barrels per day, with the supply gap being covered by demand rationing and inventory draws. These losses have made the Iran war the largest supply disruption on record, exceeding the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the first Gulf War in 1991. Regarding oil balances, our best assessment is that they will show a deficit of 2.6mn b/d on average in 2026 compared to a 2mn surplus pre-war … A combination of factors, including cancelled plans in 1H26 and major restocking demand, should support oil prices in 2027. Thus, we expect 2027 Brent prices to average $70/bbl in 2027 despite a likely surplus, if the peace deal holds, of 1mn b/d.
Long-term copper bulls
Citi analyst Max Layton’s extensive update on the copper market forecasts much higher commodity prices,
“In our most extensive Copper Book yet (and our first since 2023), we update the structural investment case for copper by incorporating the rising role of energy transition, AI/datacentre demand, and evolving marginal cost dynamics driven by scrap. We analyse the macro backdrop, inventory and arbitrage dynamics, and the growing influence of investor positioning on price formation, alongside detailed outlooks for consumption, mine supply, and scrap. We conclude that copper has entered a structurally higher price regime, with $14–15k/t needed to balance the market over the medium-term, even with modest cyclical growth. We forecast a deficit from 2027 basis current prices amid a rising Call-on-Scrap as demand continues to outpace constrained supply. We recommend investors and consumers maintain a bullish posture, with our base case targeting $15,000/t within 6–12 months (and ~$17,000/t in a bull case), acknowledging vulnerability to a pullback in the event of a global risk-off event”.
US$15,000 per tonne equates to US$6.80 per pound.
Bluesky post of the day
30-year yields are now down 30bps over the past 4 weeks:
— Conor Sen (@conorsen.bsky.social) June 18, 2026 at 7:36 AM
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Diversion
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