Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
industrial REITs
Scotiabank analyst Himanshu Gupta sees supply normalization in the industrial REIT sector,
“CBRE’s Q2/26 stats came out yesterday … We are now entering the normalization phase of the cycle, after periods of excess supply (Q4/22 to H1/26) and COVID-induced excess demand (Q3/20 to Q3/22). We expect vacancy to likely remain stable in H2/26, and coming down in 2027 … Industrial REITs are trading at parity with the REIT sector on P/AFFO multiple vs 3 turns [+ 3 Price to adjusted funds from operations multiple] premium on an average and peak of 6 turns. We believe 3-turn valuation premium is warranted, reflecting strengthening fundamentals, improving investor sentiment, the third-highest FFO growth outlook across real estate asset classes, and a lower leverage profile. Maintain SO rating on GRT and DIR. GRT remains our top pick given high-single-digit FFO growth. Both names screen similar on PEG ratio now”.
Copper earnings ahead
RBC Capital Markets analyst Sam Crittenden provided guidance ahead of copper miner earnings reports,
“Our view: Copper prices have found support around $6.00/lb with resilient demand despite geopolitical volatility. For Q2, we expect the U.S./Iran conflict to be an unavoidable cost burden for producers, to $6.06/lb, and quarter-end prices were up 9 per cent providing positive provisional pricing adjustments. While positive on copper’s fundamentals, we believe key uncertainties have recently weighed on equity sentiment, namely geopolitical risk driving elevated fuel/acid costs, the overdue Section 232 tariff decision could lead to supply flowing back to the market if not implemented, and moderating AI sentiment also now has readthrough into the copper equities. Copper equities under coverage were up 11 per cent in Q2, in-line with the commodity up 9 per cent, however we’ve historically seen ~2x leverage to the commodity price which has led to improving valuations and opportunity to add to select names. We’ve refined our estimates ahead of Q2 results. Valuations have improved: The copper equities trade at 6.4x NTM [next 12 months] EV/ EBITDA (vs 6.6x 3y avg), 0.9x NAV (vs 1.0x 3y avg) with an implied copper price of $4.98/lb, a 17-per-cent discount (vs 11-per-cent 3y avg). Our preferred names are Hudbay as they generate strong FCF and de-risk Copper World, Capstone’s operations can improve into 2027, while we see upside in First Quantum on a potential restart in Panama”
Corning
Corning interests me as a picks and shovels way to play the AI trend. BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan published a report on the stock Monday and raised the target price,
“Much of the recent bullishness on Corning has centered around the strong outlook around the optical segment that benefits from the AI buildout themes of scale up, scale out and scale across. Additionally, Corning is making progress in the areas of advanced packaging of semiconductor chips including the use of glass substrates (2029-2030) and in the area of GlassBridge (a tech that can support easy alignment of high density fibers in the era of Co-packaged optics). While these do not move the needle in the near term, they all potentially support a higher SpringBoard plan,and upside to longer term valuation. Reiterate Buy on structurally higher revs in Optical. Raising ests; PO moves to $243 on 37x C28E EPS of $6.50 (prior $223 on 37x C28E EPS of $5.95) on stronger Optical demand over the m-t [medium term]”
Bluesky post of the day
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. the character of the market has changed noticeably. .. the past few weeks have featured a serious reversal in momentum, .. this is clearly illustrated by our flagship momentum pair, which .. is down 22% from the June highs (even after yesterday’s bounce).”
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 7, 2026 at 7:54 AM
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Diversion
“Bryan Johnson Spent Tens of Millions Trying Not to Die, Gets Diagnosed With Incurable Disease” - Futurism