Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Top oil and gas ideas
CIBC analyst Dennis Fong previewed earnings season in the energy sector and provided top picks,
“We continue to see significant macro volatility amid the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Canadian oil equities delivered strong performance in the second quarter. Oil prices declined by US$39/Bbl from their early-April peak to US$70 toward the end of the quarter. Crack spreads remained strong, sitting $9 above the high end of their historical range and supporting realizations for Canadian integrateds. We expect the WCS-WTI differential to remain narrow through the third quarter, supported by low diesel inventories. For natural gas, demand drivers in the U.S. remain robust; however, a resilient production profile and above-average inventory levels have prevented NYMEX prices from rallying. In Canada, the supply and demand balance continues to tighten, which is expected to help Western Canada inventories narrow the gap with the five-year average. Furthermore, we observe a favorable political and regulatory environment, which should support increased intra-basin demand for natural gas over the long-term. Our top ideas for Q2/26 include CVE, KEL, PD, SDE, and TVE”.
Population growth and the economy
BMO economists Doug Porter and Robert Kavcic published some interesting context around population growth and the economy,
“After soaring to century highs in 2023/24, the number of residents dropped in 2025, marking the first annual decline on record dating back to the 1867 Confederation. While StatCan has indicated that these recent figures could be revised somewhat higher, the shift in population growth in the past two years has no doubt been dramatic. For the economy, this has slashed the growth in the number of potential consumers (from more than 3 per cent to about zero), as well as the growth in the underlying labour force from almost 4 per cent in late 2023 to barely anything now … The Prime Minister pointed directly to the cooler population as a factor behind the “uneven data” of the two-quarter drop in Canada’s GDP around the turn of the year … But is it really that straightforward a link, particularly over the short run? In the past 50 years, there is, in fact, zero correlation between year-over-year population growth and real GDP growth (in fact, it’s a slightly negative correlation); and, likewise, population growth is not a leading indicator of near-term economic growth … The main takeaway is that, yes, much slower labour force growth will ultimately dampen potential output growth—but only over the longer haul, and the relationship is likely not one-for-one.”
Space the new railway?
BofA Securities head of global research Candace Browning Platt compared space infrastructure to railway construction in the 19th century while marketing a research report by Ronald Epstein,
“We initiate coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with a Buy rating and $235 PO [currently US$145.30’], derived by a long-term DCF considering base, bear, and bull cases (see inside). SpaceX has evolved from a launch company into the foundational enabler of the space economy and the leading provider of space-based applications as a result. SpaceX’s extensive moats on reusable launch and proliferated space applications are in our view laying the foundation for Starship and future applications to drive another paradigm shift in capabilities … SpaceX has demonstrated a unique ability to convert launch and manufacturing capabilities into market-leading, recurring applications businesses, notably Starlink. The result is a powerful flywheel, where launch enables space applications, applications generate cash flow, and those cash flows support further infrastructure investment … The central debate is whether Starship can achieve the reliability, cadence, and economics required to unlock the next phase of growth. Much of SpaceX’s long-term opportunity, including Starlink v3 deployment and future compute infrastructure, depend on Starship successfully commercializing full reusability. If achieved, we believe launch costs could decline by an order of magnitude while capacity expands dramatically”
Bluesky post of the day
“.. Bloomberg data, which does not capture ships who have turned off their transponders, has declined but not fallen to zero.” - JPM desk
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 13, 2026 at 7:17 AM
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Diversion
“Chinese Spacecraft Approaches Mysterious Object Near Earth” - Futurism