A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The Bank of Canada provided its decision on interest rates Wednesday, choosing to stand pat and leave rates where they are. The accompanying comments in the statement were read slightly more dovishly than expected by currency markets and the Canadian dollar stood lower by more than half a cent at mid-day. The two year government of Canada bond yield was lower by about five basis points. The Canadian dollar sank immediately about half a cent on the bank decision, from 79.70 cents (U.S.) to about 79.12.
“@SBarlow_ROB CIBC on BoC : “in still stressing that inflation is higher than previously expected due to “transitory” impacts such as gasoline and minimum wage, they’re clearly in no rush still regarding the pace of future increases” – (research excerpt) Twitter
“Bank of Canada holds rates steady, remains ‘cautious’ on future hikes” – Report on Business
“Traders Begin to Rethink Bank of Canada’s Divergence from Fed” – Bloomberg
“The dynamics underlying the loonie’s value could be changing” – Barlow, Inside the Market (April 16)
“@LJKawa U.S. consensus growth forecast for 2018 exceeds Canada’s by the most on record” – Twitter
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Metals prices, led by aluminum, are ramping higher,
“ Goldman Sachs Warns Rusal Shock May Drive Aluminum to $3,000” – Bloomberg
“@tbiesheuvel Nickel prices are going nuts. +4% today “ – (chart) Twitter
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Global crude inventories are burning off but, unlike Bloomberg, I think it’s too early to declare the glut to be over in light of rising U.S. inventories,
“OPEC and Russia will meet in Saudi Arabia this week after all but banishing a global oil glut. While looming political crises threaten to tighten supplies further, the group seems determined to keep its cuts in place. ... ‘Would they declare victory now and stop? No way,’ said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA. ‘They’re happy to see inventories continue to go down, to see prices of $70 or $80. In the end, it’s about revenues. The question is at what point do they become uncomfortable with higher prices?’”
“OPEC-Russia Talks Set to Keep Oil Cuts Even as Glut Vanishes” – Bloomberg
“@tina_davis Pretty chart on U.S. shale output” – Twitter
“Major dilemma: oil companies hedge bets on low-carbon future” – Financial Times
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Tweet of the Day:
Diversion: “Report: Metal Fatigue May Explain Catastrophic 737 Engine Explosion on Southwest Flight” – Gizmodo