Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Canaccord Genuity analyst Luke Hannan described Aritzia Inc.’s (ATZ-T) fiscal first quarter results as a “clean beat and raise” as he increased his price target to C$95 from C$84 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
Aritzia reported quarterly earnings results Thursday evening that came in ahead of expectations across the board. Net revenue of $663 million beat Canaccord’s $641 million forecast and the consensus estimate of $639 million, while adjusted EBITDA of $95 million similarly beat the consensus and his estimate of $89 million.
“Aritzia’s outlook for both Q2/F26 and F2026 indicate momentum remains strong. For Q2/F26, revenue is expected to be $730-$750 million (consensus: $744M), reflecting YoY growth of 19-22%. Gross margin is expected to increase by 100 bps YoY, while SG&A as a percentage of revenue is expected to fall by 100 bps YoY; the 200 bps of operating margin expansion is well ahead of consensus’ flattish expectation,” Mr. Hannan noted.
“Aritzia raised the bottom end of its F26 revenue guidance, now standing at $3.10- $3.25 billion ($3.05-$3.25 billion previously), reflecting the Q1/F26 performance and the strength QTD. Notably, the company’s EBITDA margin guidance was increased to 15.5-16.5% (14-15% previously); 17-18% absent of all tariff pressure. Capex and depreciation are expected to remain the same, at $180 million and $110 million, respectively. The company now plans to open 11 boutiques (10 previously), while the two expected repositions remain unchanged. The guidance implies low-teens YoY comparable sales growth for the entire year, further implying a slowdown in H2/F26 to the mid-single-digits reflecting tougher comps and conservatism.”
Mr. Hannan continued: “In our view, the rally of the shares into the print clearly reflected elevated expectations, though Aritzia met them with a clean Q1/F26 beat, in line Q2/F26 revenue guidance (and operating margin guidance ~200 bps ahead of Street numbers), and a revised EBITDA margin guidance for F2026 that appropriately reflects the lower tariffs between the US and China. Additionally, there were plenty of other data points from the conference call that leave us positive on Aritzia’s near- and medium-term prospects. Specifically: (1) newest boutiques in the fleet continue to exceed payback target of 12-18 months (with newly expanded 22k sq. ft. boutique in Vancouver beating sales expectations in its first two months by 50%); (2) management is well on its way to having China represent a mid-single-digit portion of its overall sourcing by Spring 2026; (3) Aritzia’s inroads in digital marketing continue to pay off in the form of heightened brand awareness, with spend remaining within the targeted range (i.e., low single-digit % of sales), helping lead to e-commerce traffic growth of 50% YoY in the US; and (4) further top-line tailwinds are expected from international e-commerce (launching next month) and the Aritzia mobile app (launching in H2/F26). Perhaps the biggest takeaway was management’s conviction that it remains on the path to achieve its 19% EBITDA margin target for F2027 even when considering the current impact of tariffs.”
In other analyst moves on the stock, Raymond James’s Michael Glen raised his target to C$87 from C$78 while maintaining an “outperform” rating. RBC’s Martin Gravel raised his target to C$94 from C$85. Stifel raised its target to C$82 from C$67. TD Cowen raised its target to C$93 from C$81.
And Desjardins analyst Chris Li raised his target to C$91 from C$84, commenting that the company “is firing on all cylinders.”
“As expected, results show ATZ navigating through macro uncertainties from a position of operational and financial strength, with momentum continuing in 2Q. We have increased our FY26/27 EPS estimates by 8–10%, mainly due to a lower tariff impact and strong sales growth," said Mr. Li, who has a “buy” rating on the stock.
The average analyst price target on Aritzia is now C$87.40, up from C$70.90 a month ago, according to LSEG data.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Yuri Lynk downgraded North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) to “hold” from “buy” while slashing his price target, cautioning investors that another underwhelming quarter is on tap.
He believes the company needs more operating consistency to earn a higher valuation.
His price target was cut to C$24.50 from C$33.
“We think it’s only fair to question whether there are structural issues negatively impacting NACG’s business in Canada. Our change of view is based on three distinct issues. Firstly, continued weakness in the once stable Canadian oil sands business where revenue dropped 28% in 2024 and doesn’t appear to be rebounding materially. Secondly, continued weakness in the Nuna joint venture, where revenue dropped 191% ($106 million) in 2024, and we continue to await new contract awards. Lastly, we expect a modest negative cost reforecast on the Fargo-Moorhead project, which is still ~30% incomplete and could see additional charges, in our view, before completion.
As for the oil sands business specifically, he thinks the negative issues that began in 2023 will be persistent.
“Since then, NACG’s oil sands customers have taken a different approach to contract renewals. Gone are the days of five years’ worth of committed overburden volumes, which allowed NACG to plan ahead to the benefit of fleet utilization and, ultimately, margins. Now contracts are shorter and typically include just one year of committed volumes. However, this doesn’t fully explain the 28% year-over-year decline in NACG’s Heavy Equipment - Canada segment’s revenue in 2024. With the second-largest mining contractor in Alberta filing for insolvency in December 2024 (following the cancellation of its contract by an oil sands customer), we thought 2025 would see a material bounce back for Heavy Equipment - Canada, but it’s not happening. We forecast H1/2025 Heavy Equipment - Canada’s revenue to increase just 8% year-over-year against a (31%) comparable,” the analyst said in a note.
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Fresh back from the company’s investor day and a Calgary property tour, National Bank analyst Matt Kornack upgraded Boardwalk REIT (BEI-UN-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform”.
While the rental market has cooled, he’s seeing signs of an inflection in rental rates, largely owing to strong population growth in Alberta and less non-permanent residents than in the rest of the country.
“Since our move to sector perform, market risk has somewhat moderated, the InterRent privatization was announced, bond yields have moved modestly higher, but spreads have compressed and population figures for Q1 were reported showing continued outperformance of Alberta vs. the rest of the country,” Mr. Kornack said in a note.
“Recent rental stats point to a moderating but still solid growth profile for BEI with its older vintage / more affordable properties outperforming and blended leasing spreads inflecting. Given the relative valuation gap to peers the total return setup looks favourable,” he added.
National Bank’s price target was raised to C$77.5 from C$74. Elsewhere, Raymond James raised its target to C$86 citing similar catalysts.
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Scotiabank analyst Kevin Fisk downgraded Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” following an update to the bank’s commodity price forecast along with company estimates.
The downgrade was “due to our weak oil price outlook and the company’s strong share price performance,” Mr. Fish told clients.
His price target is unchanged at C$6.50. “In our view, this implied return is more in line with a Sector Perform rating. Additionally, our commodity price forecast is calling for weak oil prices for the next few quarters which is a headwind for the stock given its high torque to oil prices. As a result, we will look for a better entry point on the name (either on share price performance, improved commodity outlook, or a catalyst to boost our valuation),” Mr. Fish said.
He made other changes to targets in the energy sector.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ-T): Raises price target to C$54 from C$50
Imperial Oil (IMO-T): Raises target price to C$110 from C$100
Parex Resources (PXT-T) Raises target to C$16 from C$14
Suncor Energy (SU-T) Raises target to C$60 from C$57
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National Bank made some slight cuts in price targets as it looked ahead to the upcoming earnings season for Canadian life insurance stocks.
Its target for Manulife Financial (MFC-T) was trimmed to C$48 from C$49 while Sun Life Financial (SLF-T) target went to C$93 from C$94.
“Lifecos have underperformed the market by ~650 bps so far in 2025. Notably, they have underperformed the Big-6 banks by ~800 bps. We believe the latter comparison is relevant to explain their lagging performance,” National Bank analysts led by Gabriel Dechaine said in a note to clients.
“That is, despite headwinds faced by the Canadian banks, the market has favoured these stocks so far this year, which we believe has come at the expense of the Canadian lifecos. In our view, the lifecos are relatively attractive and offer strong EPS growth potential, robust excess capital positions, relative insulation against economic risks and attractive valuations (i.e., 10.3x 2026E EPS on average vs. 11.7x for the Big-6 banks). Our top picks are MFC and SLF. MFC has been weighed down, in our view, by concerns related to its Asia exposure, which hasn’t been reflected in the valuations and performance of Asia-focused life insurance companies. SLF, more recently, has been underperforming due to concerns related to its Medicaid exposure, despite the “at risk” elements of it representing a small proportion of its consolidated earnings."
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Doug Taylor raised his price target on MDA Space Ltd (MDA-T) to C$45 from C$36, commenting that the risk profile for the company has improved. He’s maintaining a “buy” rating.
“We highlight several positive developments in recent weeks that provide improved visibility into MDA’s near- to medium-term growth profile,” the analyst said in a note to clients. ”This includes the recent confirmation of CanadArm3 funding, the successful acquisition of SatixFy, and two new awards, which we view as materially de-risking MDA’s backlog and securing the company’s product leadership in the digital satellite market. Despite strong recent share performance, we believe that the improved backlog visibility, alongside growing defense spending priorities, merits a higher valuation. New LEO constellation program conversions ($15B pipeline) and a successful satellite facility ramp represent material potential catalysts to propel MDA further."
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In other analyst actions:
TFI International Inc (TFII-T): National Bank of Canada raises price target to C$142 from C$138
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (FFH-T): BMO raises PT to C$2800 from C$2500
IA Financial Corporation Inc (IAG-T): BMO raises target price to C$160 from C$148
Intact Financial Corp (IFC-T): BMO raises target price to C$335 from C$330
Standard Lithium Ltd (SLI-X): Raymond James initiates coverage with target price C$2.75 and “outperform” rating
Starbucks (SBUX-Q): Stifel raises target price to US$105 from US$92