Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé thinks Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NOU-T) is poised to establish itself a “key player in the North American supply chain” with its Matawinie Mine and the Bécancour Battery Material Plant becoming “one of the only vertically integrated sources of graphite with assets all located in North America, supplying plants in the U.S. within a tariffed wall.”
“Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NMG) is advancing one of the only fully permitted, shovel-ready, vertically integrated graphite supply chains in North America combining the Matawinie Mine and the Bécancour Battery Material Plant in Québec,” he explained.
“Despite the extremely positive set-up provided by the recent U.S. anti-dumping duties and the previously signed offtakes, our model only currently reflects a probability weighing benefit from the anti-dumping duty at 65 per cent which once final ruling is applied could be lifted higher and requires the closing of project financing prior to seeing our NAV upside unlocked. We also note that a possible phase could exist between current Phase 1 and the future Phase 2 – we call it Phase 1.5 – that could unlock the ability to accelerate production and sequence the financing needs in more manageable tranches. More details, expected in Q4/25, are required on this scenario to assess what it could mean to our NAV, but we expect the impact to be positive as it could lower dilution and accelerate revenue generation if properly backed by strategic offtakes."
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Sidibé initiated coverage of the Montreal-based company with a “sector perform” rating, emphasizing “preliminary anti-dumping duties on China level the playing field” but seeing it “fairly valued vs. peers currently with its premium valuation underpinned by the quality of its portfolio, offtake partners and location.”
“North American cathode demand is expected to grow from 130 GWh in 2024 to 261 GWh in 2030 when NMG will be fully ramped up,” he said. “With close to 100 per cent of the U.S. graphite needs being imported in country, NMG is well poised to provide a cleaner localized source for active anode material (AAM).”
“Even if we were to see a material slowdown in the growth of future battery production in the U.S. as a result of delayed investments and costs escalation from tariffs, the U.S. currently imports close to 100 per cent of its graphite needs with 35 per cent of its natural graphite and 75 per cent of its synthetic graphite imports coming from China according to CRU. Replacing this alone would be a key winning case for a company like Nouveau Monde. The tariffs which could culminate to 130.1 per cent (93.5-per-cent anti-dumping, 11.6-per-cent countervailing duty, 25-per-cent Section 301 tariffs) would effectively set a new price floor for materials that NMG will be looking to sell, creating a policy premium. Over the last two years, the U.S. imported on average 100 kt of coated spherical purified graphite and synthetic graphite parts which could be replaced by local sources like NMG.”
The analyst set a target of $3.50 per share. The current average on the Street is $4.28, according to LSEG data.
“We remain constructive on the story and focus on the upcoming key catalysts, the execution of which would provide shares with a clear path to rerate and the market fully ascribing value to NMG’s cost-competitive positioning: Final U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties ruling in December 2025; Update on customer strategy mix with the potential for new customer offtakes that could facilitate a sequenced development to Phase 2 (H2/25); Update from Canadian Government and Bill C-5 outcomes on critical mineral projects; Binding financing package expected in early 2026; Project FID in mid-2026,” he said.
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National Bank Financial analyst Ahmed Abdullah sees Richards Packaging Income Fund (RPI-UN-T) now reaching “an inflection point as its management team, led by John Glynn (CEO since March 2025), drives a transformation focused on reinvesting cash to drive growth through M&A.”
In a research report released Friday titled A Healthy Transformation, he initiated coverage of the Toronto-based fund with an “outperform” recommendation, caling it a “niche distributor with solid positioning offering added value services.”
“Richards Packaging holds a leading position in the Canadian distribution market, with top rankings in glass/plastic packaging, aesthetic devices, surplus packaging, and medical devices,” said Mr. Abdullah. “It has built a wide-reaching portfolio, offering 7,000+ SKUs from 450+ suppliers and serving 24,000+ clients. By focusing on small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and providing value-added services ranging from packaging design to logistics, RPI established dependable relationships and a stable base.
“New leadership [is] driving transformation, healthcare to lead future growth .... The company is midway through its three-year plan that aims to enhance organizational functions, stabilize its packaging business, foster growth in healthcare, and introduce an updated version of the company. RPI is also focused on augmenting its Healthcare segment by adding OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) capabilities via contract manufacturing. The strategy involves acquiring brands and IP, in addition to internally developing ones, to increase margins and expand the segment’s reach beyond Canada all while reducing distribution risks.”
The analyst sees Richards’ “strong cash flow generation on low capex intensity” providing it flexibility during its period of change, touting an “attractive valuation with upside on rerate potential as RPI executes.”
“RPI maintains capex below 1 per cent of revenue, mainly for maintenance, allowing it to convert adjusted EBITDA to distributable cash flow at a 68-per-cent average rate over three years (33 per cent after distributions),” said Mr. Abdullah. “Its 9-per-cent distributable cash flow yield surpasses the 6-per-cent peer average, reflecting strong cash generation. The company is shifting focus from distributions to M&A, completing three purchases in 1H25 with leverage still at 1.1 times. Given the robust cash flow, we expect RPI to revert back to net cash by 2027E (absent further M&A/capex), preserving flexibility.”
“RPI trades at an EV/EBITDA of 7.4 times for 2025E and 6.3 times for 2026E, below packaging peers (8.3 times/7.6 times), healthcare distributors (13.5 times/12.1 times), and other distributors (9.4 times/8.4 times) for the same periods. RPI’s fundamentals stack up well versus peers with EBITDA margins in line with manufacturers and distributors (roughly 13 per cent) but excels versus peers on cash flow conversion. While execution risks remain as strategies evolve, strong fundamentals suggest its valuation gap should narrow, with potential for a higher rerating as it moves toward healthcare distribution.”
He set a target of $43 for Richards units, implying an estimated total return of 36.2 per cent. The other analyst on the Street covering the company, Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne, has a “buy” rating and $38 target.
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Seeing “momentum continuing to build in the business” after better-than-expected third quarter results, Acumen Capital analyst Nick Corcoran upgraded Haivision Systems Inc. (HAI-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously, touting “improved visibility.”
Shares of the Montreal-based provider of real-time video networking and visual collaboration solutions soared 10.9 per cent on Thursday after it reported quarterly revenue of $35-million, up 14.2 per cent year-over-year and exceeding the analyst’s $32.9-million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 per cent and earnings per share of a penny also came in better than anticipated ($2.6-million and a loss of 1 cent, respectively) as cost management improved.
"The two-year strategic plan remains on track with double digit organic growth,“ he said. ”Sales are expected to accelerate through the end of FY/25 and approach $150-million in FY/26. Gross margins are expected to show a sequential improvement with the current quarter being impacted by timing of Navy deliveries. The sales pipeline continues to grow with the number of larger opportunities also growing. This is supported by new products, such as the Kraken X1 encoder and Falcon X2 transmitter. Tariffs have had a limited impact to-date. Products manufactured in North America are covered under USMCA. Transmitters manufactured in France are subject to a U.S. tariff. Management indicated that this has had a relatively small impact, and they are evaluating options to mitigate the impact going forward."
Mr. Corcoran now anticipates a “strong” end to the current fiscal year and sees “potential upside” to his fiscal 2026 estimates if management’s momentum continues.
He raised his target for Haivision shares by $1 to $6. The average on the Street is $6.09.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Carey MacRury thinks Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) deserves a premium valuation as it moves developer to producer with its flagship Koné Gold mine in Côte d’Ivoire, "given that the project is permitted, financed, and almost halfway through construction."
In a research report titled Koné-cting the pieces; a new West African gold producer, he initiated coverage of the Vancouver-based company with a “speculative buy” recommendation, pointing to the support by strategic shareholders including the Lundin Group (19.6-per-cent stake) and Zijin Mining (9.5 per cent) and touting its long-term vision to “build a premier West African gold producer in the world’s fastest-growing gold producing region.”
“Koné is a fully permitted, conventional open-pit project. The 2024 Feasibility Study (FS) outlines life-of-mine (LOM) average annual production of 223koz (more than 300koz for the first 8 years) at a mine-site all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,081/oz (at $3,000/oz) over an initial 16-year mine life based on 4.01Moz of reserves,” he said. “The FS generates an after-tax NPV5-per-cent of $3.1-billion and an IRR of 66.2 per cent at $3,000/oz gold. Construction is well advanced and progressing on time and on budget, with 44 per cent of the $835-milllion capital budget committed with first gold pour targeted for Q2/27. Montage owns 90 per cent of the project with the government of Côte d’Ivoire holding a 10-per-cent free carried interest.
“Fully financed. Montage secured a $955-million financing package in 2024, which included a $130-million equity raise at $1.75/sh and a $625-million gold stream and $75-million loan facility from Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM-TSX, ”buy" rating, $144.00 target price) and a $75-million gold stream and $50-million loan facility from Zijin Mining. The Zijin stream is fully redeemable and the Wheaton stream has terms to accelerate the reduction of the initial stream rate from 19.5 per cent to 5.4 per cent life-of-mine. The company is in advanced discussions to add a $50-million working capital facility with West African banks."
Expecting first gold production expected in 2027, Mr. MacRury also emphasized the exploration and resource growth potential at Koné while pointing to the company’s experienced management team and “strategic partnerships and regional opportunity.”
“Montage has expanded its footprint in the region through partnerships with Sanu Gold (Guinea), African Gold, and Aurum Resources (Côte d’Ivoire), gaining access to high-potential exploration properties,” he noted. “West Africa is the largest and fastest growing gold-producing region globally, with Côte d’Ivoire offering geologic potential, rapid permitting timelines and a relatively attractive regulatory regime.”
The analyst set a target of $7.50 for Montage shares. The current average is $6.54.
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In other analyst actions:
* Following in-line third-quarter results, ATB Capital Markets’ Martin Toner bumped his Blackline Safety Corp. (BLN-T) target to $11 from $10 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $9.29.
“The Company continues to grow profitability, though noted that the year-over-year product decline was a result of some customers delaying purchase decisions “as international trade environments continue to evolve”. Despite recent macro challenges, management noted that the pipeline remains strong, with focus moving forward being put on mitigating delays in customer purchasing decisions. We believe investors should look at current uncertainty as an opportunity to accumulate a high-quality growth story at a reasonable price (4.0 times 2025 sales). We raised our long-term margin estimates given momentum seen in software margins,” said Mr. Toner.
* Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne, currently the lone analyst covering Toronto-based Currency Exchange International Corp. (CXI-T), raised his target to $30 from $28 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the Q3/FY25 results as positive for the shares given the strong margin improvement relative to last year and the first half of 2025. The company delivered strong growth in its payments business as they focus on the U.S. business,” he said.
* CIBC’s Erin Kyle raised her target for Kitchener, Ont.-based educational software maker D2L Inc. (DTOL-T) to $23 from $20, keeping an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos to $20 from $16 with a “market perform” rating, Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to $22 from $20 with a “buy” rating and RBC’s Paul Treiber to $21 from $18 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $19.67.
“D2L reported Q2 revenue and adj. EPS above RBC/consensus,” said Mr. Treiber. “The upside stems from solid momentum in corporate and international markets, along with the ‘stabilizing’ U.S. higher-ed market. While there are some continued headwinds to FY26, we believe these are temporary and visibility has improved to growth acceleration towards D2L’s medium-term targets. Maintain Outperform, given D2L’s discounted valuation and attractive long-term opportunity.”
* In response to its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release, Scotia’s John Zamparo cut his Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T) target to $58 from $53 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $56.
"We anticipate the majority of EMP’s EBITDA and EPS growth in the next two years comes from lower SG&A growth and GM-percentage gains. Meanwhile, we expect SSS to soften somewhat, due to lower inflation expectations, and the end of EMP’s ecomm tailwind by FQ3. EMP is seeing a mostly stable market with minimal change to competitive behaviour. We continue to keep on our radar some concerns about accelerating square footage growth concurrent with lower population growth, though this may not play out until late C26. The trade-down picture is unclear; however, we project healthy EBIT growth from EMP (a 6.9-per-cent 2-year CAGR), even if a meaningful portion is coming from reduced stock comp. We maintain our SO rating and reduce our target price to $58 (from $63) on a lower multiple (now 16x; 18x prior) to reflect what could be more competitive industry conditions moving forward," said Mr. Zamparo.
* Roth MKM’s Sean McGowan bumped his target for Guru Organic Energy Corp. (GURU-T) to $4 from $3.75 with a “buy” rating, while Stifel’s Martin Landry moved his target TO $4 from $2.50 also with a “buy” rating. The average is $4.
"GURU reported its best quarterly results in more than two years with strong revenue growth combined with profitability expansion,“ said Mr. Landry. ”Investors sent shares up 27 per cent on the day and GURU crossed the $100-million market cap for the first time since late 2022. Management exhibited confidence during the earnings call, as innovations are getting traction, while industry demand has rebounded from its lows last year. However, generating strong profitability levels as in Q3FY25 may be difficult to replicate given the low marketing dollars spent during the quarter. Nonetheless, with better control over its destiny, following the transition of distribution, management appears in a good position to grow the GURU brand and take market share. We increase our FY25 and FY26 revenue forecasts by 8 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. Our target increases to $4.00 on higher valuation multiples to reflect the current momentum and larger market cap.“
* Seeing U.S. tariffs adding new-term pressure but its pricing “should mitigate risk,” National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu hiked his Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (HPS.A-T) target to $150, matching the average on the Street, from $140 with an “outperform” rating.
“HPS is focused on high-value opportunities, supported by M&A and strong demand. Data centers now account for approximately 15 per cent of sales, while EV infrastructure remains a long-term growth driver,” he said. “With flexible operations, HPS is well-positioned to scale while defending pricing power. 2/3 of its backlog is custom, carrying a 5-per-cent margin premium to standard, underscoring strategic focus on higher-value growth that supports visibility and profitability. Its growth via power quality products will also drive margin accretion.”
* National Bank Financial’s Vishal Shreedhar raised his target for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) to $39 from $36 with an “outperform” rating after analyzing the impact of the completion of the spin-out of its pork division. The average is $40.07.
“MFI is a company undergoing transformative change, and we are intrigued by the prospects,” he said. “We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution (given a long-term track record of underperformance); recent results, notwithstanding, have been strong.
“The opportunity with RemainCo centres on more stable and possible stronger growth, buoyed by capital return to shareholders, higher margins and possible multiple expansion. In addition, MFI has recently undergone a period of heightened investment, and we anticipate lower capex intensity going forward, coupled with ongoing improvement initiatives.”
* Lowering his fourth-quarter estimates for Transat A.T. Inc. (TRZ-T) “to reflect a softer revenue and margin environment” following its Thursday’s earnings release, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier trimmed his target for its shares to $3 from $3.25, reiterating a “hold” rating. Elsewhere, Scotia’s Konark Gupta bumped his target to $2.25 from $2 with a “sector underperform” rating. The average is $3.23.
“While we recognize TRZ’s deleveraging efforts and benefits from the Elevation Program initiatives, we maintain a cautious stance and prefer to stay on the sidelines as the effects of Canada’s economic slowdown continue to intensify. Reflecting this more conservative outlook, we forecast only a modest $35-million year-over-year EBITDA increase in FY26. That said, Pierre Karl Péladeau’s reported interest in acquiring TRZ (alongside potential support from FTQ and Investissement Québec) could offer near-term upside for the stock,” said Mr. Poirier.
* With its commitment to financing to Carcetti Capital Corp. to support a proposed acquisition of the Hemlo Mine from Barrick, CIBC’s Cosmos Chiu increased his Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-N, WPM-T) target to US$130 from US$125 with an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to US$114 from US$112 with an “outperform” rating and Berenberg’s Richard Hatch to US$108 from US$102 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$115.24.