Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following “solid” fourth-quarter financial results from Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T), Scotia analyst Mike Rizvanovic raised his earnings expectations through fiscal 2027 to “reflect broad-based improvement across most business lines and a slightly higher level of share buybacks given the bank’s elevated CET 1 ratio that we expect will only be run down gradually.”
“TD’s solid Q4 results featured much better-than-expected top-line growth in both lending and market-sensitive businesses that drove a sizable 6-per-cent beat on PTPP earnings relative to our forecasts, while credit performance was cleaner than what we’ve seen from the banks peers in the quarter with F2026 guidance suggesting a similar loss ratio that is very manageable in the context of the bank’s earnings power,” he said in a client report.
Shares of TD rose 2.1 per cent on Thursday after it reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.18, exceeding both the $2.01 estimate of both Mr. Rizvanovic and the Street. He attributed the beat to higher net-interest income and non-interest income as well as lower tax rate, partially offset by higher-than-anticipated expenses.
“Our F2026 EPS estimate rises by 2 per cent to $9.10, while for F2027 we are now at $10.15 (up 7 per cent), reflecting strong momentum in the bank’s Canadian Wealth Management and Wholesale Banking units, as well as an improved outlook in U.S. Retail,” the analyst said. “Our forecasts imply 9-per-cent EPS growth in F2026, which is a touch higher than management’s guidance of 6-8 per cent, followed by 12-per-cent growth in F2027 helped by a bit more share repurchases.”
Reaffirming a “sector perform” rating for TD shares, he raised his target $125 from $114. The average on the Street is $120.36, according to LSEG data.
“Our SP rating is unchanged in light of TD’s revaluation and sizable share price outperformance this year,” he explained.
Elsewhere, analysts making target changes include:
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine to $124 from $116 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Expense growth should moderate in 2026,” said Mr. Dechaine. “At 10 per cent, TD overshot its 5-7-per-cent targeted expense growth rate in 2025. However, within the context of much stronger than expected revenue growth that impacted variable compensation expenses and which provided additional capacity to accelerate investment initiatives, we believe this outcome was acceptable to investors. Nonetheless, we believe investors still expect expense growth to moderate, if only to justify the investment spending and restructuring charges (incl. another $125-million to be recorded during Q1/26) that TD is incurring. On that front, outlook commentary is supportive, with TD targeting a 3-4-per-cent expense growth rate in 2026, alongside positive operating leverage. We note this target includes the benefit of cost savings related to restructurings and technology initiatives outlined at the recent Investor Day.”
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $122 from $119 with a “market perform” rating.
“While TD left its FY26 guidance unchanged from its recent Investor Day, management highlighted ‘upside’ to the ROE and EPS guidance previously announced (13-per-cent ROE; 6-8-per-cent Adj. EPS growth),” said Mr. Boland. “We view this as a reflection of management’s increased confidence in the US outlook, the potential for improved credit, along with ongoing benefits from the bank’s recent cost restructuring initiatives.
“While TD continues to excel under new leadership, the stock appears fairly valued with the bank trading near the peak of its historical P/E range, notwithstanding ongoing risks related to the US remediation process (regulator/monitor approval still required).”
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young raised his target to $126 from $120 with a “buy” rating.
“Cash EPS and adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were above our estimates and consensus. Management remains confident in delivering the FY26 targets given at its recent investor day, even citing potential upside if the macro environment improves. We increased our estimates and target price,” he said.
* Barclays’ Brian Morton to $118 from $114 with an “underweight” rating
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National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine thinks Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) laid out a very optimistic outlook for the year to come alongside Thursday’s release of its fourth-quarter results despite setting a “high bar” in 2025.
“After a year during which CM delivered 16-per-cent adjusted EPS growth, 2026 growth guidance was surprisingly bullish: 1) targeting the high end of the 7-10-per-cent EPS growth range, ‘or even higher’; and 2) achieving the 15-per-cent ROE objective,” he said.
CIBC shares closed up 4.2 per cent on Thursday after it reported core cash earnings per share for its final quarter of fiscal 2025 of $2.21, exceeding both Mr. Dechaine’s $2.04 estimate and the consensus projection on the Street of $2.08. The beat was driven largely by higher pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings from trading revenues, wider spreads and market-related fees as well as a lower tax rate offset by higher PCLs.
Mr. Dechaine now thinks the bank’s objectives are “achievable” despite being aggressive, pointing to the potential for lower credit costs, positive operating leverage and capital deployment.
“Another area of surprise has been CM’s credit performance in 2025,” he said. “On one hand, CM was the only bank that reported above forecast performing provisions this quarter, which we view as acceptable considering the macroeconomic outlook. In terms of impaired PCLs, CM’s Q4/25 losses were only slightly above forecast. More importantly, at 33 bps on a full-year basis, CM is the only bank generating impaired PCLs below its historical average. And guidance for 2026 is for the impaired PCL ratio to fall to the low-30 bps level (vs. mid-30s guide in 2025), with loss rates improving over the course of the year. Of course, if the USMCA re-negotiation stalls or fails to secure an extension, this second half improvement scenario will likely not materialize.
“Organic growth, dividend increases, buybacks and M&A are CM’s capital deployment priorities, in order. On buybacks, CM repurchased 18.5 million shares in 2025, and we expect a similar amount to be repurchased in 2026, unless organic growth rebounds more than expected. On M&A, we believe its focus is on tuck-in acquisitions, rather than riskier/larger deals that could derail the bank’s organic growth success and progress towards a 15-per-cent-plus ROE.”
After revising his forecast to reflect higher fee income growth and increased his valuation multiple based on CIBC’s “strong growth outlook and track record of execution thereof,” Mr. Dechaine bumped his target for its shares to $128 from $121, reiterating a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is $123.37.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $133 from $123 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Our forecasts increase for CM following another strong quarterly result that was once again driven largely by top-line strength that showed up in both net interest income, on higher margins at the all-bank level and on a segment basis, and fee-based revenue that was fueled by a sizable beat in the Capital Markets business. Credit performance, which was a bit elevated in Q4 relative to our expectations, was only a modest headwind, and based on management commentary, is expected to remain at very manageable levels and below what we anticipate from CM’s peers next year. Margin upside, which should show up in both the Canadian and U.S. lending businesses remains a strong tailwind for CM that is likely to last throughout F2026. Our TP moves along with our EPS forecasts and we continue to see relative upside for CM’s shares as the bank takes another step towards potentially achieving a premium valuation multiple,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $132 from $127 with a “market perform” rating.
“This was another positive quarter and the 2026 guidance was a positive surprise in our opinion. We are adjusting our target price ... to reflect our updated FY2026 EPS estimates though we retain our Market Perform rating. Our main concern remains valuation with CM trading at near record high P/E levels, notwithstanding the bank’s consistently positive operating performance,” said Mr. Boland.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $132 from $126 with a “buy” rating.
“Cash EPS and adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were above our expectations and consensus. It was a clean quarter, there were no changes to CM’s strategy and management believes it can achieve an adjusted ROE of 15-per-cent-plus in FY26,” said Mr. Young.
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca to $134 from $124 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the quarter favourably in several respects: a) stability in PCLs; b) strong growth in Canadian P&B PTPP; c) strong capital markets; and d) ongoing NIM expansion. In our view, results support a P/E better than most peers. CIBC repurchased 3.5 million shares in the quarter. We raised our estimates 1-3 per cent following results,” said Mr. Mendonca.
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While the quarterly results from Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) topped expectations, TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca lowered his earnings expectations to reflect higher expenses, warning his “loan growth outlook remains soft in the near term, with improving momentum in H2/26.”
BMO reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.28 for the quarter, up 73 per cent year-over-year and above both Mr. Mendonca’s $3.06 estimate and the consensus forecast of $3.04 on what the analyst called “lower quality items. Relative to his estimates, a lower tax rate and lower PCLs helped EPS by 4 cents and 8 cents, respectively.
“While PCLs were slightly lower than our estimates, we continue to observe greater pressure on BMO unsecured consumer book than peers,” said Mr. Mendonca. “This is apparent in cards where we see 90+ delinquencies and impaired PCLs rising materially faster than peers. We are also seeing greater pressure in the bank’s RESL and personal loan book. We attribute this to BMO’s exposure to mass market (discussed in our preview). BMO guided to impaired PCLs remaining at elevated levels in H1/26 largely because of the unsecured domestic consumer. We believe this outlook was weaker than investors expected.”
“We believe investors have been less focused on earnings quality than in the past. This quarter, however, BMO’s weaker earnings quality was hard to ignore. EPS benefited from higher securities gains ($0.07/sh.) and lower PCLs and taxes.”
Maintaining his “hold” rating for BMO shares, the analyst bumped his target to $184 from $182. The average is $181.66.
“Our view on BMO reflects: a) good progress in optimization efforts in the US, b) outlook for higher PCLs (exposure to Canadian mass unsecured credit), c) strong capital markets performance (though with inevitable lumpiness), d) strong capital levels (supporting buybacks), e) higher expense outlook. We believe investors will pay closer attention to quality of earnings (PCLs, one-time securities gains) which may be an overhang on the stock,” said Mr. Mendonca.
Others making target changes include:
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $187 from $179 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We have a constructive view on BMO’s Q4 results, particularly given the bank’s strong revenue performance in market-sensitive businesses and surprising upside in net interest income, which drove solid double-digit year-over-year growth in PTPP earnings that exceeded our expectations. And so we come out of the quarter more positive on the bank’s EPS trajectory through F2027. The market, however, had a muted reaction to the EPS beat that appeared to be driven by a few factors, namely PCL-related noise that included a reserve release in the U.S. and a sizable buildup in Canada, and lingering headwinds in the U.S. Banking segment around a lack of commercial loan growth and an ROE that was little-changed sequentially and did not get much of a boost from the inclusion of the U.S. Wealth business. While our estimates and PT move up, our SP rating is unchanged as we await a more favorable ROE to materialize in U.S. Banking. As such, we continue to see stronger upside potential with more Canada-focused names among the peer group,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $180 from $177 with a “hold” rating.
“Cash EPS and adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision (PTPP) earnings were above our estimates,” said Mr. Young. “Management’s #1 priority remains the ROE rebuild, and it ruled out US acquisitions unless they meet its strategic and ROE targets. While the progress on ROE expansion has been meaningful in FY25, the bank is still 3–5 years away from its 15-per-cent-plus medium-term objective.”
* Barclays’ Brian Morton to $181 from $177 with a “equal-weight” rating.
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While emphasizing trade-related risks continue to linger, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen upgraded BRP Inc. (DOO-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” to reflect an improving growth outlook.
“Our chief remaining concern for the stock is the risk of substantive changes or threats around the USMCA agreement,“ said Mr. Doerksen in a client report. ”While headline risk around the USMCA review will likely result in some share price volatility in the coming quarters, we believe the balance of positives for BRP outweigh this risk. Importantly, better aligned dealer inventories, improving end market conditions and further share gains should drive strong EPS growth over the next two years for BRP.
On Thursday, shares of the Valcourt, Que.-based recreational vehicle manufacturer jumped 6.5 per cent after it reported third-quarter revenue of $2.25-billion, a rise of 14 per cent year-over-year and above both the analyst’s $2.092-billion estimate and the consensus projection of $2.086-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.59 also blew past expectations ($1.17 and $1.24, respectively).
Mr. Doerksen thinks BRP is now poised to increase its market share as industry conditions continue to show signs of improvement.
“With BRP’s dealer inventory levels nearly fully rationalized (just snowmobiles have further de-stocking to go) and industry dealer inventories also progressively improving, we believe that we are past the trough in the powersports industry ... Assuming flattish retail, BRP management sees a $400-$500 million revenue tailwind (up 5 per cent) in F2027 just from retail demand aligning with wholesale demand (which in itself would be a $1.25 EPS tailwind to EPS next year),” he said. “While overall consumer health is still a concern, lower interest rates in the U.S. next year could give retail a boost while a solid snow season this winter could provide incremental upside in the snowmobile market.
“Driven by the introduction of the new Defender HD11 model in August, BRP gained 4pp of market share in the Utility SSV segment in Q3 while its new ATV model launches resulted in 11pp of share gains. As we have seen BRP accomplish in the past, we expect new model introductions in the coming years to drive further share gains, especially on the ORV segments.”
Touting a “credible path” to the now “realistic” target BRP laid out of $8 in EPS by fiscal 2028 and seeing its valuation as increasingly “attractive,” Mr. Doerksen raised his target for its shares to $125 from $105. The average on the Street is $107.84.
“On our updated fiscal 2027 estimates, BRP shares are trading at 8.1 times EV/EBITDA and 16.9 times P/E, which is above the historical (10-year) forward averages of 7.8 times and 14.5 times for the stock,” he explained. “However, on calendar 2026, BRP’s closest peer Polaris, trades at 10 times EV/EBITDA and a P/E of over 40 times
“We previously valued the stock by applying an 8.0x EV/EBITDA multiple to our F2027 forecast. Given improving industry conditions and the positive earnings growth trajectory for BRP over the next two years, we are comfortable increasing our target multiple to 9.0x, which results in a new target.”
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* Stifel’s Martin Landry to $120 from $106 with a “buy” rating.
“For the first time in nine quarters, BRP reported a year-over-year increase in its EPS,” said Mr. Landry. “The increase comes from strong sales growth of 14 per cent year-over-year, boosted by successful new product launches, particularly the new Defender SSV. This translated in the strongest October retail performance for side-by-sides in the company’s history. Momentum continued post quarter-end with November sales reportedly strong. Investors welcomed the earnings recovery, sending shares up 7 per cent on the day. With capacity utilization at roughly 70 per cent, BRP could experience significant earnings leverage if sales continue to grow substantially. Management has reinstated its share buyback program and intends to be active, signaling confidence in the near-term outlook. We are raising our FY27 forecasts by 4 per cent and increasing our target price.”
* Citi’s James Hardiman to $122 from $102 with a “buy” rating.
“DOO has done a commendable job, in our view, in its inventory management in the face of tariffs, macro uncertainty, and heightened promotions from competitors on non-current units. We feel more confident in the BRP story as the outlook provided simultaneously charts a path to upside vs. the Street yet feels conservative, with potential avenues of upside including factors beyond nominal industry improvement,” said Mr. Hardiman.
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $117 from $102 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We raised our F2027 (C2026) EPS to $6.19 (from $5.64), or up 23 per cent year-over-year, ahead of preliminary commentary for EPS to be up mid-to-high teens next year,” said Mr. Goldman. “For context, F2026 (C2025) guidance calls for EPS of $5.00 (with upside on Snow) while narrowing of the wholesale/retail gap should add $1.25 and lower finance costs should add $0.20 incremental. We’re not saying $6.45 is the starting point, as management called out some headwinds, namely moving Ryker facility to Vietnam, investments in products/tech, still elevated industry promo and non-current inventory, higher D&A, and higher taxes. But it’s easy to formulate a bull case predicated on: 1) improving retail demand (rate cuts, $2,000 handout cheques, consumer confidence); 2) regaining share loss (company aims to get back to 30-per-cent SSV share by F2028); 3) more balanced dealer inventories, which should boost wholesale demand and limit promotional activity; and 4) capital allocation (company expects to generate FCF of $650 million to $700 million this year, which supports buybacks; see renewal of NCIB).”
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $131 from $107 with an “outperform” rating.
“Although competitors are still carrying high levels of non-current inventory (resulting in elevated promotional pressure, which is expected to continue over the coming quarters), BRP has continued to execute, reporting a record October as it relates to SSV and ATV retail performance (supported by new product introductions), with this momentum continuing into November (SSV retail was noted as being “quite positive”). Overall, while the macro/ industry backdrop remains somewhat uncertain, we believe the cleaner inventory setup positions the company well going forward,” said Mr. Khan.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $130 from $117 with a “buy” rating.
“We were impressed by BRP’s robust ORV retail performance in 3Q, particularly in light of ongoing competitive OEM promotional activity and the persistent presence of discounted non-current inventory across the industry. Coupled with the continued strength of the premium products category, these results reinforce BRP’s market share recovery thesis. We now have increased confidence in BRP’s ability to regain a 30-per-cent-plus share in SSVs and achieve 25 per cent in ATVs by FY28,” said Mr. Poirier.
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $118 from $115 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Q3 marked another step toward a more normalized demand and competitive environment, with BRP delivering revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion together for the first time in ten quarters. We update our estimates with a higher tax rate a net negative, but are comfortable ticking up our target multiple again,” said Mr. Petrie.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $119 from $106 with a “buy” rating.
“BRP handily exceeded Q3/F26 consensus and raised F2026 guidance, inclusive of a Q4/F26 outlook ahead of pre-quarter consensus EBITDA/EPS. Management’s ‘high-level’F2027 guidance drivers on the call appear prudently conservative, that may moderate upward revisions post Q3/F26, and provide a cushion to exceed consensus upon the formal introduction of F2027 guidance upon the Q4/F26 release,” said Mr. Morrison.
“Strong Q3/F26 results and outlook support our increased financial forecast/target price. Potential forthcoming catalysts include strong Q4/F26 results, upward revisions to F2027 consensus/progress toward M28 targets, an active NCIB, and declining interest rates improving industry demand and providing upside to our forecast.”
* BMO’s Tristan M. Thomas-Martin to $115 from $105 with an “outperform” rating.
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ATB Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello thinks “near-term uncertainty clouds longer-term upside” for Calfrac Well Service Ltd. (CFW-T).
“While we believe CFW offers significant medium-to-long term upside potential as it has significantly de-risked its balance sheet and its H1/25 results showcased the potentially transformational upside of its Argentina operations; we believe CFW’s 2026 outlook is somewhat tenuous amid sub-US$60/bbl WTI, and as pipeline constraints in Argentina are likely to temper activity until late-2026 or 2027,” he said. “Further, we believe upside realization remains dependent on CFW’s ability to demonstrate improving North American activity and margins in H1/26 and visibility to more consistent activity levels in Argentina where earnings volatility has been extreme.”
In a client report released Friday, Mr. Monachello resumed coverage of the Calgary-based company with a “sector perform” rating, emphasizing Argentina “offers significant torque, but risks remain.”
“CFW’s Argentina operations are a sizable and high torque exposure to the Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the world’s most prolific onshore unconventional oil and gas resources, that is just beginning to gain momentum,” he noted. “While activity levels have been volatile, CFW’s Argentina business demonstrated its outsized potential in H1/25, when it delivered roughly $50-million/quarter of adjusted EBITDA on an average asset base of just $325-million including just two fracturing crews (plus cementing and coiled tubing operations). While we believe Argentinian activity is likely to be tempered by pipeline constraints in 2026, an additional 550 kbbl/d (roughly an 89-per-cent increase) of Vaca Muerta crude egress is expected be commissioned in phases from late-2026 to through 2027, which should unlock fracturing demand. While geopolitical risk remains elevated, recent economic reforms have materially eased controls on capital flows.
“North American Operations Looking for Traction in 2026: Following an acute decline in North American revenue and profitability since 2023, we forecast moderate margin expansion in 2026, based on a strategy to optimize labour costs going forward and following the completion of its fleet modernization initiative that upgraded five fleets to Tier IV DGB spec. Nevertheless, we believe CFW’s ability to materially grow in North America remains somewhat tenuous amid a tepid activity environment, and may require additional fleet upgrades over the coming years.”
He set a target of $4.25. The current average is $4.
In a separate report, Mr. Monachello resumed coverage of Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) with an “outperform” rating, calling it “a high-quality pure-play in Canadian completions.”
“As a pure-play Canadian completions company with high exposure to Canada’s most service intensive plays, we believe TCW faces a relatively stable outlook over the medium-term, and is well positioned to benefit from longer-term LNG related activity growth in Canada. Further, we believe TCW is well positioned to outperform industry growth over our forecast horizon given 1) its recent scale-enhancing acquisition of Iron Horse that also provides organic growth opportunities, 2) plans to deploy an additional 100-per-cent natural gas fleet, likely in Q4/26; and 3) TCW’s strong balance sheet and advantaged cost of capital that should enable some combination of organic growth opportunities, and potential acquisitions. Additionally, we believe TCW will maintain a steady pace of share repurchase activity, driving additional growth on a per share basis and tactically supporting funds flow. Fundamentally, TCW has demonstrated a track record of top-tier FCF conversion, returns on capital, and cash returns to shareholders, which we believe justifies its premium valuation compared to Canadian public drilling and completions companies.”
He has a $7 target, exceeding the average on the Street by 8 cents.
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In other analyst actions:
* Citing the presence of multiple potential catalysts for the next 12 months or longer, including a CEO change, a Preliminary Economic Assessment for Fourmile project and the resolution of its issues in Mali, BNP Paribas Exane’s Allan Spence upgraded Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N, ABX-T) to “outperform” from “neutral” with a US$50 target, rising from US$34.50 and exceeding the US$44.48 average on the Street.
* Conversely, pointing to valuation concerns, Mr. Spence downgraded Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM-N) to “neutral” from “outperform” with a US$97 target, down from US$107 and below the US$105.85 average.
* National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his target for DPM Metals Inc. (DPM-T) to $46 from $43.50, keeping an “outperform” rating, after attending its Investor Day on Thursday, seeing its Čoka Rakita development in Serbia as a “high grade jewel in the crown of an emerging Cu-Au district.” Other changes include: CIBC’s Cosmos Chiu to $44 from $40 with a “neutral” rating and Scotia’s Eric Winmill to $43 from $36.50 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $40.44.
* While noting its fourth-quarter miss was credit-driven and that “overhang weighing on the stock will persist,” National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine raised his target for EQB Inc. (EQB-T) to $98 from $96 with a “sector perform” rating, seeing its acquisition of PC Financial from Loblaw Cos. Ltd. (L-T) as “financially attractive.” Elsewhere, other changes include: Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $91 from $93 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $102 from $94 with a “sector perform” rating, Desjardins’ Doug Young to $107 from $100 with a “buy” rating and TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $103 from $96 with a “hold” rating. The average target is $97.52.
“We believe the PC Financial acquisition is positive for several reasons: 1) it pairs EQB with an industry leader that sounds very committed to this partnership, as evidenced by a pro forma 17-per-cent ownership stake in EQB with the potential to increase it to 25 per cent; 2) the transaction should easily be accretive in the mid-single digits, with upside from funding synergies; and 3) it expands EQB’s brand and distribution capabilities across 2,500+ Loblaw group grocery stores,“ said Mr. Dechaine. ”On the other hand, we are skeptical of cross-sell potential. We do not see EQB’s alternative mortgage customer base as a “target rich environment” for PC Financial credit card products. There should be, however, a good opportunity for EQ Bank to expand its deposit base in the Loblaw in-store kiosk network.”
* National Bank’s Dan Payne bumped his Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX-T) target to $10.50 from $9 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $9.
“The company announced a very solid 2026 outlook that is reflective of continued momentum within the business, with approximately $185-million in spending to deliver 8-per-cent annual production growth within the context of a 60-per-cent payout ratio ($60/bbl) to imply a 5-per-cent FCF yield (redirected through its base dividend), for a 10-15-per-cent total return,” said Mr. Payne.
“Its annual outlook continues the momentum of its value trajectory, with solid outcomes (incl. waterflood) continuing to backfill its reinvestment ratios, in support of accelerating value creation (principally through exploration); HWX is poised for a 17-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 11 per cent) on a leverage of negative 0.3 times (vs. peers 0.7 times), while trading at a 2026 estimated EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] of 6.2 times (vs. peers 3.0 times).”
* Ahead of the release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 10, TD Cowen’s Steven Green, currently the lone analyst covering Major Drilling Group International Inc. (MDI-T), raising his target for its shares to $16 from $13 with a “buy” rating.
“We have updated our estimates ahead of MDI’s FYQ2 results, reducing near-term EBITDA to reflect muted margin expectations, due to higher spending to support increased drilling activity, while raising our 2027E on a stronger outlook, as activity builds and junior financings accelerate,” said Mr. Green.