Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Entering the new year, National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé recommends investors in uranium and lithium equities prioritize “quality over beta in a volatile upcycle” and prefers companies with both scale and strategic positioning moving forward.
"2026 is about power, not just prices,“ he said. ”AI, data centres and electrification have turned uranium and lithium into strategic inputs for national security and industrial policy. Both markets are entering the next phase of the cycle: prices remain volatile, but credible new supply is harder and more expensive than investors assume.
“Across both commodities, we want to own the left side of the cost curve and the assets governments and hyperscalers need, not the marginal production that only works in a blue-sky price deck. In practice, that means a core tilt to Cameco plus Athabasca developers (DML, NXE, ISO) on the uranium side, and to low-cost brines and policy-backed names in lithium (LAR, NOU, LIRC), while treating high-cost ISR and early-stage hard rock as trading vehicles rather than core holdings.”
In a research report released Friday titled 2026 Critical Minerals Year-Ahead: Fuelling the AI Power Grab, Mr. Sidibé emphasized “policy has caught up with the narrative” and declared “government backing is here to stay.”
“The U.S. has designated uranium a critical mineral and launched large-scale reactor and stockpiling initiatives. In battery materials, IRA/FEOC rules, G7 critical-mineral pacts and U.S./Canadian programs are pushing OEMs to “friend-shore” supply,“ he explained. ”The state is now a direct capital partner in our space. This backdrop favours companies that already sit inside the policy tent: Cameco as the default Western fuel-cycle champion, UEC as a U.S. policy optionality play, and NOU, LAC and PMET as clear beneficiaries of Western funding, offtakes and de-risking capital flowing into non-Chinese battery materials."
“AI and BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) are now in the driver’s seat. Hyperscalers are signing multi-decade nuclear PPAs and exploring fuel offtakes; BESS demand is compounding off a small base and is set to triple by 2030. Data centre load and grid stability needs are pulling uranium and lithium into the heart of the AI stack. We see Cameco, NexGen and Denison as the most credible uranium counterparties for future potential AI-linked fuel contracts, which would be a seismic event in the market, and LAR and NOU as well positioned on the lithium side to supply BESS and EV growth from low-cost, policy-aligned projects.”
Mr. Sidibé made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in his coverage universe. They are:
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T, “outperform”) to $5 from $4.50. The average target on the Street is $4.46, according to LSEG data.
- IsoEnergy Ltd. (ISO-T, “outperform”) to $20 from $18.75. Average: $25.
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T, “outperform”) to $18 from $15.50. Average: $16.25.
- Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-T, “sector perform”) to $7.50 from $10. Average: $8.38.
- Lithium Argentina AG (LAR-N/LAR-T, “outperform”) to US$6.50 from US$4.75. Average: US$4.74.
- Lithium Royalty Corp. (LIRC-T, “outperform”) to $8.50 from $8. Average: $8.
- PMET Resources Inc. (PMET-T, “outperform”) to $7 from $6.25. Average: $7.
- Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC-A, “outperform”) to US$16.50 from US$15.50. Average: US$17.04.
- Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC-T, “sector perform”) to $5.50 from $5. Average: $5.90.
"From here, performance should be driven by asset quality, contract book structure, execution, and – increasingly – government involvement and policy headlines that can underpin rerates for names like Cameco [’outperform’ rating and $145 target] and Uranium Energy," he concluded.
National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack was “surprised” by Dream Industrial REIT’s (DIR-UN-T) announcement of a $1.1-billion joint venture with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Dream Asset Management Corp. to buy domestic industrial properties.
The joint venture is launching by acquiring 12 Canadian industrial properties for $805-million from Dream Industrial that cover a total of 3.6 million square feet of space in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta.
“We had been waiting for something like this to occur in Europe (although apparently this outcome was a result of that process and more news will likely come out on that front in time),” said Mr. Kornack. “Nonetheless, the signals are positive as it sees Maple-8 capital flow to domestic industrial assets at a price that supports NAV while achieving solid accretion on a leverage neutral basis. We are taking our target 9-per-cent higher to reflect NAV accretion and reduced discount.”
Resuming coverage, he raised his target to $15.75 from $14.50, exceeding the $14.30 average. with an “outperform” rating.
Weaker-than-expected 2026 financial guidance from North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) “creates more questions than answers,” according to TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil, who thinks its overshadows the $115-million acquisition of Australia’s Iron Mine Contracting.
“We view 2026 guidance as a negative surprise, presumably driven by the Canadian asset rationalization and pro forma Canadian outlook (although not directly addressed in release), in what should have been a positive M&A event,” he said in a client note.
After the bell on Thursday, the Acheson, Alta.-based company reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization guidance for 2026 of $380-million to $420-million, which is “roughly” flat year-over-year with the midpoint falling 5 per cent below Mr. MacNeil’s projection and 2.5 per cent under the consensus forecast despite a partial year contribution from IMC.
“This clear miss is not specifically explained in the press release, although we infer that the Canadian outlook has again decreased given the sale of assets in this region,” he noted.
“NACG highlighted potential momentum into 2027, including an EPS target of $4.00/share (above our revised estimate of $3.64/share), which is predicated on 15-per-cent growth in Western Australia, a 10-per-cent win rate on near-term infrastructure opportunities and securing at least one large resource-based workscope in northern Canada.”
The analyst thinks that news will lead investors to ignore the acquisition in Australia, which he emphasized has “been a strong source of growth for NACG.
“We understand the industrial logic of this transaction,” he said. “NACG discloses a 2026E EV/EBITDA purchase multiple of 2.5 times, and a project backlog exceeding $1 -illion. The acquisition will be financed entirely by debt, including a $40-million upfront payment, assumed equipment financing of $35-million and a $40-million earn-out. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1/26.”
After reducing his 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 5 per cent each to reflect NACG’s guidance and his expectations for its oil sands operations, Mr. MacNeil dropped his target for its shares to $19 from $21, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $24.33.
“Recall that we had to revise our investment thesis with Q2/25 results, given the significant miss and second consecutive annual guidance miss,” he concluded. “Although not specifically defined in the press release, it appears that NACG’s oil sands operations continue to face challenges, and will again be a drag on corporate performance into 2026. This miss on 2026 guidance was not expected and management did not clarify the drivers of the miss in the press release, which will create room for negative investor narratives, in our view. We continue to believe that NACG will need to deliver a series of strong quarters before the stock can generate positive momentum as it relates to valuation.”
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li thinks "the tug of war" between Canadian consumer staples and discretionary will continue in 2026.
“Against a backdrop of cautious consumer spending and persistent macro uncertainties, high-quality defensives (DOL, L and MRU) with consistent earnings growth will likely outperform at the start,” he said. “But premium valuation could limit absolute return.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Li named a trio of “recovery candidates” for the year ahead, citing valuations that he thinks “largely reflects near-term challenges, but catalysts are likely one or two quarters away.” They are:
- Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) with a “buy” rating and $85 target. The average on the Street is $86.20.
- Premium Brands Holdings Corp (PBH-T) with a “buy” rating and $120 target. Average: $119.50.
- Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) with a “buy” rating and $38 target. Average: $37.50.
“While we caution that catalysts are likely one or two quarters away, we believe valuation largely reflects near-term challenges,” he said. “For ATD, continuing improvement in U.S. merch SSSG (successful commercial initiatives and a better lower-income consumer) is key. For PBH, margin inflection in 4Q, non-core asset sales, deleveraging and acceleration in OVGR are key catalysts. For PET, while promo intensity remains elevated, we expect EPS inflection in 4Q and 2026 (high-singledigit percentage); at only 16 times 2026 EPS, valuation is not too far from the recent trough of 15 times P/E when the outlook for SSSG and EPS growth was even more cautious (flat/negative).”
Mr. Li acknowledged “clear winners are once again difficult to identify,” but he selected Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) as his preferred name for the year ahead. He has a “buy” rating and $95 target for its shares versus the $100.55 average.
“At approximately 14 times EPS, we believe valuation is attractive vs GIL’s expectation for more than 20-per-cent CAGR (three-year) and strong FCF conversion supporting an increase in capital return,” he explained. “We believe depressed valuation reflects a wait-and-see perspective from investors for better visibility on the HBI integration and synergies. Following the recent closing of the deal, we expect management to provide more details, likely with 4Q results in February. This could be a catalyst. We believe the majority of the EPS growth is ‘controllable’ (cost synergies, debt refi, share buyback, etc) with upside to cost synergies. Another potential catalyst is the divestiture of non-core/underperforming assets that would accelerate debt reduction, enabling GIL to recommence its NCIB sooner.
“The two biggest risks: (1) Integration challenges resulting in lower-than-expected EPS growth and valuation multiple remaining stagnant or even trending toward HBI’s historical level of less than 10 times P/E. (2) Given the economically sensitive nature of activewear and innerwear products, worsening of market conditions impacting demand.”
Mr. Li made a trio of target price adjustments in the note:
- Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T, “buy”) to $125 from $95. The average is $111.67.
- Saputo Inc. (SAP-T, “buy”) to $45 from $40. Average: $39.80.
- George Weston Ltd. (WN-T) to $110 from $103. Average: $105.
In a research report released Friday titled Hitting the Gas and Drilling Fast, ATB Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello said the macro outlook for the North American energy services sector in 2026 is “defined by a divergence between oil and gas activity, and rising drilling and completions efficiency.”
“Crude markets face a tenuous outlook with WTI crude prices trending toward US$55/bbl and a consensus view of increasing global oversupply in 2026,” he added. “Conversely, we believe the outlook for natural gas remains robust, supported by demand from growing North American LNG export capacity and AI data centres, and improved natural gas pricing across major North American benchmarks. We believe the outlook for North American oil production, crude pricing and oil basin activity levels will be dictated meaningfully by the pace of drilling and completions productivity increases relative to the pace of Permian basin resource degradation which our analysis suggests have largely offset over recent years. Overall, we forecast the North American rig count to decline 2.5 per cent year-over-year on average in 2026, as modest downside in oil basins is largely offset by activity growth in gas basins.
“Consequently, we believe the most compelling macro backdrops lie with companies that have 1) high leverage to natural gas production growth, 2) differential leverage to gas vs oil drilling and completions activity, and 3) positive exposure to rising drilling and completions productivity. Geographically, we believe Canada offers a more resilient outlook for activity in 2026 than the U.S., while we forecast stronger medium-term growth in the U.S.:
Mr. Monachello thinks outperformance will be seen in companies that are able to “deliver a healthy combination of above average EBITDA and FCF growth, strong and/or inflecting return to shareholder profiles, and that trade at compelling valuations.”
“Furthermore, we believe robust return to shareholder profiles, and rising FCF conversion ratios, will serve as potential catalysts for multiple expansion,” he said.
Mr. Monahello named three companies as his top picks for the 12 months ahead:
* Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $26 target. The average is $22.42.
Analyst: “EFX was the top performing company in our coverage in 2025, up 51 per cent year-to-date. We believe its strong performance was a function of both positive consensus EBITDA revisions through the year and multiple expansion as EFX demonstrated robust end market demand for natural gas compression and processing systems, delivered strong FCF generation, and enhanced returns to shareholders. Looking to 2026, we believe EFX’s leverage to North American natural gas production growth offers among the best underlying demand profiles in our coverage, with minimal direct exposure to lower WTI crude prices, a positive exposure to Permian resource degradation (higher gas-to-oil ratios), and is positively exposed to growing production from U.S. gas basins. Further, we believe EFX’s ability to continue to exceed margin expectations, execute on promising growth opportunities in modular power generation, and grow in its U.S. compression rental and aftermarket service business, offer upside to our forecasts over the coming years.”
* Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) with an “outperform” rating and $120 target. Average: $119.62.
Analyst: “PD is the only pure play drilling-oriented company in our 2026 top picks. Despite a relatively tenuous outlook for North American conventional oil activity, we believe PD is well-positioned to outperform given 1) its relatively high exposure to, and top market position within, the tier-1 Canadian liquids rich gas drilling market, and the thermal/heavy oil super-single market, both of which we believe are likely to outperform the average North American oil rig count in a weak crude price environment; 2) its outsized weighting to U.S. gas basins relative to U.S. industry activity; we calculate PD has grown its market share in U.S. gas basins to roughly 13 per cent in Q3/25 from roughly 5 per cent in Q1/25, providing both relative insulation to potential downside in U.S. oil basin activity and upside to likely increases in U.S. gas basin activity in 2026; 3) modest downside exposure to U.S. oil basin activity levels; for context, we estimate PD’s U.S. oil basin drilling activity accounts for just 15-20 per cent of 2026 EBITDA and 4) despite modest EBITDA growth expectations (0.6 per cent in 2026e), we forecast PD’s FCF before growth capex to increase roughly 10 per cent year-over-year to roughly $296-million, providing strong visibility for PD to achieve its deleveraging target, fund high-return growth opportunities (rig upgrades), and accelerate returns to shareholders over the next 12-18 months. We believe strong visibility to enhanced returns to shareholders and improving FCF conversion as catalysts for multiple expansion over the coming years.”
* Total Energy Services Ltd. (TOT-T) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target. Average: $19.50.
Analyst: “TOT is up 29 per cent year-to-date in 2025, and remains a top pick for 2026 given its 1) top-tier EBITDA growth profile (16 per cent 2026e); 2) its exposure to robust demand for natural gas compression and processing systems through its Compression and Process Services (CPS) segment that reported record backlog at Q3/25 ($381-million, up 102 per cent year-over-year), underpinning 47% of 2026e EBITDA growth; 3) exposure to idiosyncratic growth opportunities, most notably in its Australian drilling and well servicing businesses; 4) low exposure to US oil basin D&C activity; we estimate U.S. D&C exposed service lines comprise just 5 per cent of 2026e revenue; 5) clean balance sheet (0.3 times net leverage) and growing FCF profile sufficient to fund robust shareholder returns, high-return organic growth opportunities, and potential acquisitions. TOT trades with among the most attractive valuations in our coverage.”
After adjusting his model to reflect “moderately lower North American rig activity estimates given oil market headwinds, offset to some degree by lower CAD/USD FX assumptions in 2027,” Mr. Monachello reduced his target for these stocks:
- ACT Energy Technologies Ltd. (ACX-T, “outperform”) to $6.50 from $6.75. Average: $6.75.
- AKITA Drilling Ltd. (AKT.A-T, “sector perform”) to $2.25 from $2.50. Average: $2.50.
- Ensign Energy Services Inc. (ESI-T, “sector perform”) to $3 from $3.25. Average: $3.
- Total Energy Services Inc. (TOT-T, “outperform”) to $20 from $20.50. Average: $19.50.
- Western Energy Services Corp. (WRG-T, “sector perform”) to $2.50 from $2.75. Average: $2.75.
He raised his targets for these companies:
- CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T, “outperform”) to $14.50 from $14. Average: $12.70.
- Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T, “outperform”) to $26 from $25. Average: $22.42.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod raised his Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) target to $136 from $133, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $111.67.
“Our Nov/25 web traffic, app, and in-store sales analysis takeaways are positive,” he said. “Robust total traffic growth continued (up 44 per cent); both Canada (up 20 per cent) and U.S. (up 69 per cent) remained strong in the seasonally strongest month of the year; traffic growth reflected customer engagement with winter launches and the Aritzia app launch, which we expect to be a meaningful comp driver; Bloomberg Second Measure data shows FQ3/26 U.S. in-store sales up 56 per cent, which has led to our higher estimates and target price.
“We believe Aritzia remains well-positioned to execute on its significant U.S. growth opportunity.”
* Stifel’s Ingrid Rico reduced her Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) target to $31.50 from $33 with a “buy” rating. The average is $25.
“This week, Aya filed an updated technical report for its Zgounder silver mine, which updates reserves and resource estimate along with a LOM-plan that captures the changes to the mine plan compared to the prior mine plan projections. To us, Zgounder’s new mine plan is a de-risking element to go-forward expectations. Importantly, we see an independently prepared, updated resource model with increasing understanding of the deposit informing the mine plan that substantiates a path towards annual 6Moz silver production. Some differences compared to our Zgounder estimates drive a change to our target price to $31.50. We emphasize that heading into 2026, AYA’s cash flow leverage in this silver-price environment + growing Zgounder production make it an ideal candidate for multiple expansion and re-rate in 2026. De-risking and exploration upside at Boumadine also add to AYA’s NAV growth potential with Aya shares currently reflecting modest value priced-in for this value-driver project,” she said.
* In response to the release of the results of the Feasibility Study for its wholly-owned DeLamar gold and silver heap leach project, Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur raised his Integra Resources Corp. (ITR-X) target to $6.50 from $5.75 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $6.83.
“Integra’s producing asset is the Florida Canyon mine in Nevada. In addition, ITR plans to use cash flow from Florida Canyon to develop the DeLamar project in Idaho (a lower-risk jurisdiction with a Governor that is pro-mining, and near infrastructure) and the Nevada North project in Nevada (another lower risk jurisdiction) to create a multi asset U.S. producer. Given the lower jurisdictional risk, potential for resource and production growth we rate the shares Outperform,” he said.