With his outlook for the aerospace industry remaining positive, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen reaffirmed Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) and CAE Inc. (CAE-T) as among the top ideas in his coverage universe, seeing the conditions for a “multiyear period of growth” for both companies.
“Valuations have expanded, but [are] still relatively reasonable,” he said. “The Dow Jones Aerospace & Defence index is up approximately 58 per cent since the beginning of 2025 and while CAE has underperformed the index over that time (but still up 26 per cent), Bombardier has significantly outperformed with the stock up over 170 per cent. Despite the large move in the share price, we note that Bombardier’s valuation is still relatively reasonable with the stock trading at 14.0 times 2026 EV/EBITDA versus the peers trading at closer to 15.0 times on average (excluding high valuation outliers). CAE also remains at a relative discount to the peers trading at 13.3 times F2027 EV/EBITDA.”
In a client note released late Thursday, Mr. Doerksen justified his bullish stance by arguing both companies are poised to benefit from a “positive” outlook for the commercial aerospace market outlook and the expectation global defence spending will continue to rise
“With global airline traffic forecast to grow 4.9 per cent in 2026 and aircraft deliveries potentially growing 30 per cent over the next 2–3 years the Civil aerospace backdrop remains highly supportive for CAE,“ he explained. ”Business jet flying activity was up 5% in 2025 and the industry backdrop is also positive, which underpins our constructive outlook for Bombardier.
“In the U.S., which is by far the largest spender on defence, spending is planned to be up 12 per cent in F2026. The President recently indicated that he would like to see the U.S. defense budget increase to US$1.5 trillion in F2027, which would be a 50-per-cent-plus increase year-over-year. In our view this is an unlikely scenario, but it seems likely that military spending in the U.S. and around the world (including in Canada) will continue to be on an upward trend, supporting growth at both CAE’s and Bombardier’s defence segments.”
Maintaining “outperform” ratings for both, Mr. Doerksen raised his target for Bombardier to $290 from $263 and CAE to $52 from $48. The average targets on the Street are $238.37 and $46.69, respectively.
Scotia Capital analyst Robert Hope sees “attractive” growth accelerating in his North American pipeline and midstream coverage universe.
“Tailwinds from strong power demand and LNG exports are driving increased opportunities to put capital to work and improve returns from existing assets,” he said. “Given these factors, we believe there is an upward bias to our estimates longer-term. We roll forward our target valuations to be based on our 2028 estimates, which increases our target prices by a median of 4 per cent for the Canadian names and 6 per cent for the U.S. names.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Hope introduced his 2028 estimates for the sector as well as rolling forward his target valuation to 2028. He’s now forecasting a 2026-2028 EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 5-6 per cent for the North American pipeline group.
“Overall, we see the strongest 2026-2028 growth from ENB-T in the Canadian pipeline group, KEY-T in the Canadian midstream group and KNTK-US in the U.S. pipeline and midstream group,“ he said. ”This growth is largely backed by the incremental contribution from new projects, the expectation of volumes growth, and to a lesser extent some improvement in Marketing margins (off a relatively soft 2026). We expect the group will continue to be active in announcing new projects in 2026, though given lengthening development timeframes, the associated cash flows from such projects could start beyond 2028. Generally speaking, our pipeline / midstream growth outlook is comparable to the remainder of our coverage universe including a 6 per cent 2026E-2028E EPS CAGR for the Canadian utility group and 6-per-cent CAGR for the power and renewables group.”
Citing “a strong and visible growth outlook and an attractive relative valuation,” the anayst upgraded Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We have been impressed with the number, quality, and returns of projects that Enbridge continues to secure, which in 2025 tallied $12-billion,” he explained. “Looking forward we expect the company will continue to secure attractive projects with the majority relating to its natural gas pipeline and utility businesses. While the oil environment is expected to be volatile in 2026 (and beyond), we expect Enbridge’s Mainline crude oil system will continue to operate at capacity even as it is further expanded. In the coming months we expect Mainline Optimization II will be sanctioned (est.US$2.5-billion cost). Out to 2028 we see very consistent 5-6-per-cent EBITDA growth driven largely be the incremental contribution from its $35-billion project backlog. Enbridge’s 6-per-cent dividend yield is the second highest in the TSX 60, which could make it attractive to income oriented investors, and we expect the company will continue to increase its dividend 3 per cent per annum. Looking at valuation, our Enbridge target multiple is in-line with its 10-year average, whereas the targets for its gas-levered pipeline peers (TRP-CA, WMB-US) are well above their averages. We believe there could be further upside as the market is increasingly confident in its gas levered growth profile.”
Mr. Hope’s target for Enbridge shares rose to $73 from $70. The average on the Street is $69.34.
His other target adjustments include:
- Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP-N/BIP-UN-T, “sector outperform”) to US$44 from US$41. Average: US$41.
- Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T, “sector perform”) to $27 from $26. Average: $28.15.
- Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, “sector outperform”) to $55 from $54. Average: $52.33.
- Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T, “sector outperform”) to $31 from $29. Average: $31.84.
- South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N/SOBO-T, “sector perform”) to US$30 from US$29. Average: US$28.74.
- TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “sector outperform”) to $86 from $81. Average: $84.04.
“Our favourite Canadian midstream and infrastructure names are BIP-US, KEY-CA, and TRP-CA. Our favourite U.S. names are TRGP-US followed by OKE-US,” he said.
In response to share price appreciation following its “re-brand” with the sale of its U.S. Eagle Ford assets, TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof downgraded Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T) to a “hold” recommendation from “buy” previously.
“We like that BTE is aggressively getting after the buyback with the disposition proceeds ($800-million initial cash nest-egg, but now getting whittled down) and consider it a strong vote of confidence in a streamlined portfolio/strategy that really comes to life at US$65/bbl+ WTI,” he added.
In a note titled Buybacks In Full Swing But Intersecting with Fair Valuation, Mr. Hulshof said the Calgary-based company’s cross-border model had “clear benefits” and Eagle Ford “served an important role historically,” however he thinks those positive attributes were “no longer recognized by investors.”
“Looking a lot more like the pre-2014 version of BTE, but with a pristine balance sheet: As promised, management did not waste any time in getting after the buyback, with the EF transaction closing on Dec. 19, 2025 and reinstatement of the NCIB on Dec. 24,” he said. “We estimate 14.7 million shares have been repurchased since then (or 22 per cent of total NCIB). On our math, BTE could complete the NCIB by early spring, assuming it hits the maximum daily limit allowed by the exhange. In our view, there is a probability of an SIB following the NCIB.
“While we really like that BTE is aggressively buying back stock (clear vote of confidence in revised new portfolio and strategy; US$55/bbl WTI covers maintenance + divvy), the valuation on strip is now fuller, in our view, while the business model really starts to come to life in a US$65+/bbl WTI world (admittedly not too far off today with the 2026 strip at US$60/bbl).”
Now seeing Baytex “targeting appropriate level of growth against backdrop of numerous macro uncertainties,” Mr. Hulshof maintained his $5 target for the company’s shares. The current average is $5.03.
“We like this far more streamlined, nimble and well-capitalized version of BTE,” he said. “The set-up looking forward is attractive: 1) a net cash position with a unique opportunity to make significant share repurchases, 2) a return to organically funded growth of 3-5 per cent annually (vs. a prior largely sustaining capital budget for 2026), and 3) an opportunity to create value in the PDuv (one-rig program, 18-20 wells/yr with prod’n ramping to 20-25mboe/d by late-decade), and a host of heavy oil plays (some old, some new) where it continues to opportunistically add acreage. At US$65/bbl+ WTI, we see the most option value in its legacy heavy oil portfolio (1,100 drilling locations, 24-per-cent 2P).”
Kinross Gold Corp.’s (K-T) announcement that it plans to proceed with the construction of three important organic growth projects “better define” its long-term production profile, according to National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle.
On Thursday, the Toronto-based miner said it will progress with the Round Mountain Phase X and Bald Mountain Redbird 2 projects in Nevada, and the Kettle River-Curlew project in Washington, which it is “expected to meaningfully extend mine life and will benefit long-term costs within Kinross’ United States (U.S.) portfolio.” It revealed a projected combined internal rate of return of 55 per cent and an incremental post-tax NPV4of US$4.1-billion.
“We reiterate our Outperform rating, supported by an attractive valuation, strong FCF yield supporting increasing shareholder distributions, above-average sensitivity to gold prices and relatively low/improving geopolitical risk profile,” said Mr. Nagle. “[Thursday’s] technical reports provide more conviction in mine life extensions and long-term growth outlook for the company beyond development of Great Bear. Our target has increased slightly as we now model lower costs and higher EBITDA for 2026.”
The analyst incorporated the projects into his financial model and now sees cumulative free cash flow of US$9.4-billion between 2026-2028, which he thinks is sufficient to cover the capex costs of US$1.45-billion associated with them.
“Kinross has guided to capex of US$425-million in 2026 (NBCM estimate: US$431-million), with total attributable capex expected to be US$1.5-billion (plus/minus 5 per cent) compared to NBCM at US$1.5-billion (was US$1.57-billion),” he added. “We have delayed the growth spending at Lobo-Marte, which is likely now be sequenced after these projects and delayed Great Bear sequencing by 6 months from our previous estimates as well.
“Strong balance sheet supports continued capital returns: Kinross has completed its 2025 share repurchase program, achieving its target of US$600-million and reducing its share count by 2.5 per cent. The company will continue to prioritize its strong balance sheet, liquidity and capital return program. Kinross is expected to be in a net cash position of US$1.10-billion as of Q4/25.”
With his “outperform” rating, Mr. Nagle increased his target to $52 from $50. The average target is $43.77.
Energy equity analysts at Raymond James updating their commodity price deck on Friday ahead of the release of fourth-quarter financial results.
“In C$ terms, WTI/WCS are down 8 per cent/10 per cent sequentially for 4Q25, which is a big driver of negative estimate revisions for producers this quarter,” they said. “Similarly, C$ strip pricing for WTI comes in 1 per cent/3 per cent lower than our previous deck for 2026/2027, while WCS comes in 4 per cent/6 per cent lower on wider heavy differentials. Meanwhile, AECO continues to struggle given egress challenges, warm weather, and seasonally-high inventories, resulting in strip coming in anywhere from 11-25 per cent lower than our previous deck. We make a number of estimate and target revisions.”
Analyst Luke Davis made the lone rating revision based on the changes, upgrading Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $29 target, up from $27 and exceeding the $26.71 average on the Street.
“Paramount has demonstrated strong operational momentum backstopped by solid execution building out new facilities - a key differentiator that we expect could continue to drive estimates higher,” said Mr. Davis. “Further, the company has a long list of highly economic projects to be phased in over the next decade plus, combined with a balance sheet that is equipped to fund the next several years of development. With a net cash position, the company also has the ability to weather any near-term price volatility if the macro environment deteriorates from here. Finally, the company has a deep portfolio of assets that are largely free options at the moment, which we expect could be developed or monetized over time - particularly compelling given management’s long history of strategic transactions. Overall, we expect Paramount to continue bringing forward latent value across its portfolio, which likely continues to be rewarded, providing continued valuation support despite its already premium multiple.”
For senior producers, the analysts’ target revisions are:
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T, “outperform”) to $53 from $57. The average is $51.65.
- Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “strong buy”) to $30 from $33. Average: $29.93.
- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, “underperform”) to $106 from $110. Average: $114.89.
- Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T, “outperform”) to $73 from $75. Average: $66.63.
“In Senior Oil & Gas we expect broadly uneventful quarters,“ they said. ”With some pre-released ops updates and two months of public data, consensus volume estimates look reasonable across the board. It’s also too early in the year to expect much in the way of changes to recently-released FY26 guidance despite macro volatility. Our estimates and targets come down slightly across the board on a lower near-term commodity price deck, but our pecking order remains unchanged with CVE leading the pack, SU a close second, CNQ rounding out the Outperforms, and IMO at the bottom of the pecking order. While we like CVE best longer term, we do note that SU has the most exciting story du jour, with a positive rate of change in the in situ business heading into the March Investor Day.”
Citi analyst Bryan Burgmeier lowered his forecast for North American waste service companies on Friday, seeing fading pricing power.
“Waste stocks underperformed in 2025 (up 3 per cent vs. S&P 500 up 15 per cent) as inflation expectations crumbled in 2H, partially driven by less-than-feared impact from tariffs, along with a gradually worsening economy, and a sharp drop in commodity prices,” he noted. “The stocks have further lagged in Jan, and we see another challenging set-up for ’26 with expectations for continued deceleration in CPI and soft volume.
“We model ’26 group EBITDA up 6.7 per cent year-over-year, down from 8.2 per cent year-over-year in Sept, driven by net price gains. While we acknowledge the headwinds, we see catalysts from potential recovery in recycled commodities (currently near trough, 30 per cent below 5-yr avg) and significant dry power for M&A and buybacks; valuation is supportive with the group trading at a rare discount to the S&P 500. Our top pick is WM; we’re further Buy-rated on RSG and GFL.”
Mr. Burgmeier reduced his estimates for both 2026 and 2027 by an average of 1 per cent to reflect lower inflation expectations in the second half of last year “potentially rolling through Waste contracts in 2H’26 and 1H’27.”
“Market-implied CPI forecasts crumbled in 2H’25 on less-than-feared inflationary impact from tariffs, along with a gradually worsening economy that has prevented/delayed some price increases for consumer goods & services,” he explained. “The Fed has firmly pivoted towards rate cuts, although the market is not expecting a hard landing for the economy, meaning Waste stocks are seemingly missing out on a “Goldilocks” economy benefiting more cyclical/economically sensitive companies.
“In July ’25, the market was pricing in a reacceleration in CPI from 2.5 per cent year-over-year in 2Q’25 to low-3’s by 4Q’25, and potentially low/mid-3’s throughout ’26, as higher cost of goods from US tariffs was passed along to end consumers. By Sept, expectations ticked slightly lower, implying low-3’s CPI throughout ’26, and then fell to high-2’s by November and eventually mid-2’s by Jan ’26. Considering 40-50 per cent of Solid Waste contracts are directly tied to CPI or an alternative index, lower inflation expectations are negative for Waste; open-market pricing typically holds up better but could still follow a similar trajectory as restricted pricing.”
With his changes, Mr. Burgmeier made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in sector. They include:
* GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-N/GFL-T, “buy”) to US$56 from US$58. The average is US$55.63.
Analyst: “We are Buy rated on GFL as the current valuation does not reflect medium-term growth potential and a pure-play Solid Waste portfolio. We forecast 9-per-cent’24-’27 EBITDA CAGR [compound annual growth rate] from a positive net price spread, EPR contracts, and internal investments. With only mid-single-digits market share and a cleaner balance sheet, GFL is positioned to grow revenue low single digits per annum. from roll-up acquisitions for the next decade, in our view.”
* Waste Connections Inc. (WCN-N/WCN-T, “neutral”) to US$183 from US$196. Average: US$204.98.
Analyst: “We are Neutral on WCN despite best-in-class waste assets as margin expansion and consistently strong pricing appear baked into consensus estimates and valuation appears fair.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to its privatization offer of $2.22 per share, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier moved Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (TTNM-T) to “tender” from “buy” and trimmed his target to $2.25 from $3.25, while Raymond James’ Steve Hansen moved Titanium to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $2.22 target, down 3 cents.
“Overall, while the offer is below our target price (based on 2027 estimates), we view it as fair given the limited institutional interest,” Mr. Poirier said. “The company had lost investor momentum due to its small size alongside a prolonged freight recession, limited acquisitions and a recent dividend cut. We also see a low likelihood of a superior bid given support from rolling shareholders/management and the current lack of appetite for Canadian TL and cross border–exposed assets facing ‘Driver Inc’ and tariff headwinds.”
“In light of the fair valuation, immediate liquidity and low probability of a superior bid, we are moving our recommendation.”
* Believing MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) offers attractive value and possesses several catalysts for the year ahead, Morgan Stanley’s Kristine Liwag upgraded its shares to “overweight” from “equal-weight” with a $46 target, rising from $32. The average on the Street is $40.83.
* Following a “solid” fourth-quarter beat, Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young upgraded Haivision Systems Inc. (HAI-T) to “speculative buy” from “hold” and raised his target to $8, matching the average, from $5.60.
“With exposure to secular growth themes such as defense and space emerging as a driver, we are increasingly confident in continued growth and progress toward long-term targets of 20-per-cent revenue growth and 20-per-cent EBITDA margin. We are raising our target to $8.00 (from $5.60) and moving to SPEC BUY (from Hold) on the improved outlook. We have applied a SPECULATIVE qualifier to reflect higher risk on our forecast given it is early in the recovery to growth. Our target price is based on a 10.0 times (previously 9.0 times) NTM [next 12-month] EV/EBITDA multiple. With continued execution, we see potential to re-rate higher,” said Mr. Young.
* Stifel’s Ingrid Rico hiked her Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) target to $45 from $35 with a “buy” rating. The average is $40.50.
“Last week, we had the opportunity to attend a site-tour that showcased the construction progress of AAUC’s Kurmuk project in Ethiopia. Kurmuk’s site visit left us with positive impressions as this key value driver project is rapidly approaching first gold (targeted for July 2026). Ethiopia is relatively new to large-scale gold mining but with a strong desire to exploit its largely untapped geological potential. In our view, Allied has done a commendable job on construction execution despite having to navigate some logistical challenges. Kurmuk underpins the company’s near-term, high-margin, production growth, and we see Kurmuk lowering remaining capex risk given construction progress, contracts awarded for remaining construction activities, and capital committed. Despite AAUC’s strong share price performance, we believe it remains a strong candidate for further rerate as it continues to execute well on its near-term growth,” she said.
* Seeing product volatility persist, Ventum Capital Markets’ Amr Ezzat reduced his Blackline Safety Corp. (BLN-T) target to $8.25 from $8.75 with a “buy” rating. The average is $9.
“Blackline closed out the year with record ARR of $84.5-million, positive adjusted EBITDA for the sixth straight quarter, and tangible progress toward a platform-driven model as G8 approaches commercial launch and ADNOC momentum continues to build,” said Mr. Ezzat. “Services once again did the heavy lifting, up 30 per cent year-over-year with gross margins expanding to 67 per cent, driving EBITDA to $2.2-million and a clear beat versus expectations.
“That said, product revenues were the weak point in the quarter at $13.8-million, down 14.4 per cent year-over-year and below what we would normally expect in the seasonally strongest period. Management attributed this to a combination of delayed fire and hazmat orders tied to the US government shutdown, elongated refresh cycles, and ongoing macro caution. We continue to view BLN as a long-term platform compounder, but the near-term narrative remains one of strong fundamentals paired with choppy hardware timing.”
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne raised her Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) target to $166 from $165 with a “buy” rating and lowered her Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) target to $116 from $119 with a “hold” rating. The averages are $160.40 and $119.62, respectively.
Elsewhere, ATB’s Chris Murray raised his target for CN to $153 from $151 with a “sector perform” rating and CPKC to $127 from $125 with an “outperform” recommendation.
“Q4/25 EPS estimates have drifted higher for CN/lower for CPKC based on actual volumes. 2026 volume prospects look modest, with U.S. rail M&A a big focus. Investors still favour CPKC, but it has yet to hit its 15-per-cent EPS growth CAGR and faces USMCA renegotiation risk. We prefer CN, which we see as a value stock. Repeated guidance cuts have damaged investor sentiment, but we think Q3/25 was a turning point,” Ms. Rico said.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine raised his Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) target to $71 from $66 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to $76 from $75 with a “buy” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $72 from $71 with a “hold” rating. The average on the Street is $88.88.
“The US cable winter appears to persist, as fibre network build-outs continue unabated and additional spectrum is being allocated to incumbent wireless operators, boosting FWA capacity. Nonetheless, CCA’s US turnaround seems to be gaining traction, as it reported its lowest Internet losses in 15 quarters with meaningful cost cutting. While CCA generates a 18-per-cent FCF yield, we remain on the sidelines given our view of the outlook for the U.S. business,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* In a fourth-quarter preview for software companies, CIBC’s Stephanie Price cut her targets for Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T, “neutral”) to $4,668 from $5,260, Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q/OTEX-T, “neutral”) to US$37 from US$40 and Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q/TRI-T, “outperformer”) to US$183 from US$198. The averages are $5,080, US$39.11 and US$186.15, respectively.
“Calendar Q4 is typically seasonally strong for the tech sector and the majority of names in our coverage universe,” said Ms. Price. “Consensus is forecasting 7-per-cent revenue and 8-per-cent EBITDA year-over-year growth on average. We are slightly below consensus on almost all names under coverage for calendar Q4 given elongated enterprise sales cycles. AI-disruption concerns and delayed enterprise sales cycles continue to impact stock performance in the sector. Software names in our coverage were down an average of 12 per cemt in Q4 and 22 per cent in 2025. We expect a focus this quarter will be on guidance for calendar 2026. We would not be surprised to see some companies guide to a back-half-weighted 2026, as demand remains uncertain, and expect such guidance will likely receive a negative reaction from investors.”
“We like CSU and TRI heading into earnings and see both as attractively valued. We believe that CSU’s key drivers remain unchanged post Mark Leonard’s retirement, and with the stock trading at a 6 times discount to its two-year EV/EBITDA average, we see it as attractive at these levels. We see AI-related revenue opportunities for TRI, in addition to potential divestiture opportunities, and will be looking for details on the 2026 outlook. We view Docebo as attractively valued at current levels and see upside from the company’s recent FEDRamp authorization.”
* To reflect its fourth-quarter 2025 preliminary production results and 2026 guidance, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé lowered his Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) target by $1 to $25 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.11.
“Overall, our model now shows lower contribution from Brazil in Q1/26 than we previously expected, trimmed production at Greenstone and in Nicaragua, while Valentine is largely unchanged with total production decreasing from 836 koz to 792 koz (770 koz excluding Brazil). Our AISC [all-in sustaining cost] of $1,935/oz and capex of $668-million increase 9 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively to reflect the guidance provided. As a result of our changes, our 2026 EBITDA decreases 12 per cent to $2.05-billion (down $271-million) and our 2026 FCF decreases 24 per cent to $1.13-billion (down $352-million),” said Mr. Sidibé.
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar raised his First Capital REIT (FCR.UN-T) target to $22 from $21.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $21.94.
“For 4Q, we are now forecasting OFFOPU of 33 cents (down from 34 cents previously), representing 4-per-cent growth year-over-year. The tweaks to our forecast largely reflect financing activities in 4Q25, including the issuance of $500-million of unsecured debentures and the redemption of its $300-million Series T debentures. We expect 4Q operating results to reinforce our positive outlook for the REIT (2025 SPNOI target of 5 per cent plus), and will be looking for updates on its disposition program ($60-million forecast for 4Q25),” said Mr. Kalmar.
* In response to Thursday’s release of in-line fourth-quarter 2025 results, National Bank’s Zachary Evershed bumped his target for Richelieu Hardware Ltd. (RCH-T) to $41 from $40.50, acknowledging a “softer” margin guidance but still seeing a “positive” trajectory for the Montreal-based company.
“Though Q4/25 sales to retailers were down in Canada due to a large customer not placing a typical seasonal order, the effects should not bear any impact on quarters ahead,” said Mr. Evershed. “Q1/26 thus far is tracking flat on the retailers side, in line with commentary from large, publicly traded renovation stores. On the other hand, sales to manufacturers (approximately 90 per cent of sales) are trending in the mid-single digits range organically, with a little more strength in the U.S. vs. Canada. Looking beyond Q1, the sales from a large U.S. customer previously lost in mid-2024 have now been recaptured, and will begin contributing starting in Q3/26e to the tune of $10-12 million in annual sales to retailers.”
* Ahead of quarterly results for Canadian midstream companies, TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil raised his Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T) target to $29 from $26 with a “hold” rating. The average is $31.84.
“For Q4/25, we expect that Canadian midstream companies will deliver relatively in-line results with few surprises, as most have recently reaffirmed guidance and/or provided corporate updates,” said Mr. MacNeil. “However, we are focused on updates for commodity-linked businesses given recent volatility, and would specifically highlight a weakened NGL Frac spreads (KEY, PPL), narrow crude oil differentials (GEI), and widening in Cdn natural gas seasonal spreads, which we expect will positively impact RGSI. Macro headwinds – particularly the U.S. intervention in Venezuela – should prompt a more cautious, risk-adjusted approach to crude-oil-focused growth outlooks among large Canadian heavy oil producers, which may result in delays to projects that are pending a FID. Companies with secured, regulated capital programs are best positioned for durable growth, while those with greater commodity price exposure or reliance on new project sanctioning face more uncertainty. Specifically for Rockpoint, we are increasing our estimates and price target due to wider-than-expected Canadian seasonal natural gas spreads, driven by higher production and a slower LNG Canada ramp. However, we expect Rockpoint’s quarter to be an outlier given its recent IPO and its business model, which results in greater quarter-to-quarter variability versus peers due to direct commodity price exposure."
* Citi’s Alexander Hacking raised his Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) target to $76 from $60 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $69.86.
“We update our TECK model to reflect latest commodity price forecasts from Citi’s global commodity team ($12,375/ton copper for 2026),” he said. “We raise our target price to $76/sh (from $60/sh), which matches the GBP 33/sh target price on Anglo American from our UK mining team translated at the proposed merger terms. Our rating remains Neutral, in line with the Anglo American rating. The only potential major hurdle remaining to the proposed merger appears to be regulatory approval from China (which previously asked for large copper asset divestment in a large merger). 4Q25E EBITDA is set at $1.1-billion (in line with Bloomberg consensus), and we expect the call to focus on progress at QB2.”