Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Seeing a fair valuation, pointing to a total return of 9.6 per cent, following “challenging execution across the Attachie asset with limited growth catalysts ahead,” National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood downgraded Arc Resources Ltd. (ARX-T) to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously.
In a report titled Growth Prospect Put on Hold, he reiterated his view of Arc’s Montney asset base “as some of the highest quality across the WCSB,” however he said “unclear future capital allocation leaves us unsure on future growth and project initiatives.”
“While reaffirming 2026 guidance and targeting average annual production of 405–420 mboe/d [thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day], supported by capex within $1.8–1.9 billion, management has decided to remove asset-level production guidance for Attachie this year on account of sustained underwhelming and variable performance (recall: latest public disclosure in conjunction with Q3 release pointed toward 30–35 mboe/d in 2026, Q4 average production landed around 28 mboe/d),“ explained Mr. Wood.
“Attachie has been embedded in the portfolio for around 15 years and has been expected to provide the company with up to five phases of longer-term liquids growth. Although Kakwa could backfill Attachie growth under certain capital scenarios in the interim, the transparency and certainty of future growth and economics out of Attachie and elsewhere are unclear, adding what we believe to be inherent risk.”
Emphasizing corporate production is expected to remain flat over the next several years, the analyst said he will wait for an eventual update around Attachie development to “gain greater certainty on the company’s future growth plans and trajectory.” He kept his long-term forecast largely unchanged (we have left our longer-dated forecast for the Calgary-based company unchanged.
“For now, based on current valuation, we expect the stock to perform largely in line with the market, with the company likely to use FCF to lean more heavily on buyback activity (2026 estimated FCF Yield of approximately 6 per cent),” he said.
Mr. Wood reduced his target for Arc shares by $1 to $26. The average target on the Street is $29.71, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, ATB Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke cut his target to $29 from $31 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the event as negative, after the Company withdrew its formal asset-level Attachie guidance (previously 30-35mboe/d with Q3/25 results; as well as removed Attachie Phase 2 capital/production from the multi-year plan in the updated investor deck) on the back of the most recent Upper Montney Attachie well results coming in variable and below expectations - likely to be the near-term focus for investors from the update,” he said.
Despite Thomson Reuters Corp.’s (TRI-Q, TRI-T) fourth-quarter 2025 financial results falling in-line with his expectations and its 2026 outlook getting reiterated “as expected,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds said another reduction to his valuation multiple and target price for its shares “acknowledges a further widening in the gap between public market valuations and intrinsic values given the evolving AI disruption narrative,.”
However, he does expect shares of the Toronto-based company, which has been one of the biggest victims of this week’s software sell-off and has now fallen almost 32 per cent over the last month, to “finally find a firmer floor at current levels.”
Thomson Reuters CEO says plunge in software stocks driven by anxiety, not fundamentals
“Not unlike other information services companies, disconnecting from the broader AI disruption narrative in 2026 remains the key catalyst for the stock,” said Mr. McReynolds.
“While our Canadian media experience in how public market valuations react to structural concerns suggests such disconnection will be easier said than done, we expect the stock to finally find a firmer floor reflecting: (i) the provision of 2026-2028 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance (100 basis points of annual expansion) that further underpins a mid-teen NAV CAGR [net asset value compound annual growth rate] capable of absorbing 1.5-2.0 times points of additional annual EV/EBITDA multiple compression before annual total returns turn negative thus in our view implying a more attractive upside versus downside trade-off; (ii) the high likelihood of more substantial NCIBs being instituted on any further meaningful share price weakness given US$11-billion in excess balance sheet capacity through 2028; and (iii) what should be steady deployment and early monetization in 2026 of an agentic AI roadmap delivering proof points that Thomson Reuters is sustaining (or strengthening) its competition position as customers gravitate to the best agents and most integrated platforms.”
Maintaining a “sector perform” rating for Thomson Reuters shares, Mr. McReynolds cut his target to US$126 from US$155. The average is US$166.50.
“As we continue to better understand the nature of TAM [total addressable market] evolution and the competitive landscape in an agentic AI environment, our conviction levels on Thomson Reuters sustaining or strengthening its competitive position within legal and tax verticals over the next 3-5 years has increased,” he explained. “While such higher conviction aligns with management’s ‘growing confidence’ in the company’s competitive position, we believe the ability for Thomson Reuters to begin to disconnect from an AI disruption narrative that with ongoing LLM/frontier model progression is unlikely to get less negative (at least in the near-term) boils down to some combination of: (i) further acceleration in the Big 3 organic revenue growth trajectory (albeit off what is an almost double-digit trajectory that clearly reflects successful ongoing AI monetization); (ii) the provision of additional KPIs/disclosures highlighting proof points of superior agents and unmatched end-to-end integrated workflow automation; (iii) evidence of accelerated TAM expansion driven in part by increased share of wallet; and/or (iv) the announcement of strategic partnerships and/or acquisitions that reinforce competitive positioning, accelerate execution capabilities and/or solidify existing content moats.”
Elsewhere, other revisions include:
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to US$156 from US$189 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“TRI stock pulled back 6 per cent [Thursday] despite a strong 2026 outlook as investor fears of AI startups disrupting SaaS businesses continue to linger. Competition is rising in areas that are non-core to TRI’s business and we think that TRI continues to have competitive advantages from their domain expertise and proprietary content to grow in core areas. To reflect the significant multiple compression we have seen for data service/software stocks from AI disruption fears, we have once again, lowered our EV/EBITDA multiple target from 24 times to 15 times. We continue to believe that the company will achieve 7-8-per-cent annual revenue growth over the next few years, with a long-term growth rate of 4 per cent. The current stock price however, implies only 1-per-cent medium and long-term growth. We believe this discrepancy signals a dramatic shift in expectations to levels becoming hard to ignore from a valuation perspective. While we did not see a new buyback program today (we believe the company should undertake a significant stock buyback at these levels) we continue to like TRI based on fundamentals and consistent execution,” said Mr. Yaghi.
* CIBC’s Stephanie Price to US$140 from US$183 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Investor sentiment has been impacted in recent months by AI disruption concerns, worsened earlier this week by Anthropic’s new legal-focused Claude plug-in. TRI was an early mover on AI and continues to integrate AI enhancements into its product suite, driving organic growth acceleration in its core segments. We view TRI as attractive at these levels and expect that continued execution on organic growth, a focus on shareholder return, and potentially increased disclosure around AI growth and/or a longer-term revenue outlook can help improve investor sentiment,” she said.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini to $175 (Canadian) from $285 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe the selloff in TRI shares is overdone, and we are moving it to top pick in our coverage universe, despite resetting our target multiple much lower to reflect weakness for most software services comps. Q4 results (just as in Q3) showed no signs of disruption from new AI competitors. Management reiterated 2026 guidance and confident messaging about growth in 2027 and beyond,” said Mr. Valentini.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine to $175 (Canadian) from $190 with an “outperform” rating.
“Forecast now reflects 100 basis points of margin expansion through 2028, but we more conservatively trimmed valuation metrics (AI risks),” said Mr. Shine.
While investors didn’t meet Lightspeed Commerce Inc.’s (LSPD-N, LSPD-T) third-quarter 2026 financial results with an enthusiastic reaction, pushing its TSX-listed shares down 7.3 per cent on Thursday, TD Cowen analyst John Shao predicts further “consistent” execution should drive a valuation re-rating.
“While continued sales momentum reduces the execution risk on mid-term targets, the stock’s intraday performance [on Thursday] seems to suggest investors are still sensitive to the soft near-term outlook. Beyond that, we expect a track record of outperformance to drive investor confidence.”
Lightspeed generated US$312.3-million in revenue in the quarter ended Dec. 31, up 11.5 per cent year-over-year and exceeding the Street’s forecast of US$311.5-milliom. Adjusted earnings per share of 15 US cents was a gain of 25.3 per cent and a penny above the consensus expectation.
Despite reporting better-than-anticipated results, the Montreal point-of-sale software company became another victim of the broader sell-off in the tech sector.
“FQ3 saw no lack of positive developments including the fastest merchant location growth, rising strength in its growth engines, and healthy FCF conversion,” said Mr. Shao. “We particularly like the 13-per-cent year-over-year software growth among its growth engine markets, which is higher than the 9-per-cent year-over-year location growth, suggesting LSPD has secured large customers.
“The offset? Intraday weakness [on Thursday] was likely due to FQ4 guidance: We believe the soft FQ4 guidance was largely due to the post-holiday seasonality and a certain degree of conservatism. In our view, we don’t think that momentum will easily break within just one quarter.”
Pointing to “sales momentum across core geographies and verticals, Mr. Shao expects “incremental” improvements in fiscal 2027 towards its 3-year strategic goals announced at its investor day. However, he reduced his 2026 forecast “in accordance with
updated guidance," while revising his 2027 estimates to “reflect the current pace of execution relative to its F28 targets.”
That led him to lower his target for Lightspeed’s NYSE-listed shares to US$11 from US$15, keeping a “hold” rating. The average target on the Street is
“We rate Lightspeed HOLD, given the challenged growth and KPIs relative to peers,” he explained. “Although we believe Lightspeed will remain cost-disciplined, it could take time to prove its strategic pivots and high-touch go-to-market strategy is working in an increasingly competitive landscape. We believe the company needs to demonstrate clear and consistent execution before sentiment improves.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* RBC’s Daniel Perlin to US$13 from US$15 with an “outperform” rating.
“Lightspeed delivered an in line F3Q26, with some upside to adj. EBITDA, and provided a positive proof-point to its go-to-market efforts, as new location growth within its growth markets accelerated to 9 per cent year-over-year, with more momentum brewing as it continues to ramp its outbound sales teams and begins to benefit from its partnership sales channel later in FY27. We view the negative optics of Software revenue slowing to 5.5 per cent year-over-year and the expected headwinds in F1H27 from lapping pricing as transitory, with potential to build throughout FY27 as a function of new location growth with larger customers,” said Mr. Perlin.
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to US$12 from US$15 with a “hold” rating.
“LSPD reported a modest FQ3 beat and FY guide raise vs. our/Street expectations. Strength this quarter was largely payments and hardware driven while subscription software revenue - a key focus for us/investors – decelerated, reflecting headwinds from lapping last year’s price increases and increased discounting as the company makes a bigger push on annual customer contracts to drive better long-term revenue visibility. While encouraging location and subscription growth in the company’s core growth engine markets (NA retail, EUR hospitality) serves as an early proof point on improving GTM execution post recent sales investments, we continue to look for visibility to a more consistent re-acceleration in overall subscription software revenues and customer location growth back to the double-digits to reaffirm LSPD’s ability to sustain market share gains. We remain on the sidelines in the meantime,” said Mr. Sukumar.
* Barclays’ Raimo Lenschow to US$12 from US$14 with a “hold” rating.
“Q3 does not change the fundamental story for LSPD. The slightly better GTV and profitability are progress. Though, the mixed full-year guide and lower software revenue indicate that there is still work to be done before investors get more incremental,” he said.
* BTIG’s Andrew White to US$15 from US$16 with a “buy” rating.
Heading into fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canada’s industrial sector, Stifel analyst Ian Gillies thinks the underlying trends across his coverage universe “seem to be improving” after an “eventful” start to the near year of investors can’t “ignore the political noise.”
“The U.S. manufacturing is above 50 for the first time since February 2025, management commentary around end market demand suggests sequential improvement, but the one metric we are waiting to inflect positively is non-resi spending in the U.S.,” he said.
“In Canada, large capital projects appear to be moving forward, which should provide a 2H26E and 2027E tailwind. Valuation entry points remain attractive in certain instances (e.g. WSP, ADEN, BDT, NEO and SES). Our best large cap idea remains WSP and our best small cap ideas are BDGI and ZDC.”
In a report released before the bell titled Turn and face the strange, Mr. Gillies argues economic trends are “starting to perk up” and he expects the current earnings season to “be void of significant surprises.
“What really matters is if revenue growth is going to accelerate in 2026E after a choppy 2025,” he said.
“4Q25 will be well in the rear view as companies report results in late February and early March. Our coverage universe has seen strong performance year-to-date at 10 per cent. There are pockets of strength forming outside the typical data centre, power, onshoring and defense themes. This view has been supported by positive commentary by U.S. listed companies such as Fastenal, ITW (welding/general industrial equipment) and several mentioning upbeat MRO outlooks. For the E&Cs, we are expecting an acceleration in organic growth in 2Q26E, while policy announcements could aid an acceleration in activity for housing related stocks in 2H26E and 2027E.”
Mr. Gillies made one rating revision, downgraded Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T) to a “hold” recommendation from “buy” based on valuation concerns.
“We believe RUS’ end market demand is improving, and we have increased our 2026E EBITDA forecast by 7.8 per cent,” he said. “However, the stock’s 2027E P/Book valuation properly reflects this improvement in the company’s outlook. The current 27E P/B implies a forward 12-month return of 7.6 per cent. We believe operational catalysts could be limited in 1H26E as RUS integrates recent acquisitions. Due to these considerations, we are moving our rating to HOLD from Buy.
“We launched coverage of RUS on 3/15/2022 with a BUY rating. Since that time, the stock has generated a total return of 94.0 per cent, compared to the S&P/TSX at 53.7 per cent and S&P 500 at 61.5 per cent. Our increased target price of $50.50/sh (prior: $49.00/sh) reflects a potential 12-month total return of 6.0 per cent. RUS remains a very well run company, and we expect 4Q25 results to meet/exceed expectations with a potential lift to consensus 26E EBITDA, but we await a better entry point.”
The analyst’s new $50.50 target for the Toronto-based company’s shares falls below the average on the Street of $51.17.
Mr. Gillies made these other target revisions:
- Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T, “buy”) to $51 from $47. The average is $47.66.
- Aecon Group Ltd. (ARE-T, “hold”) to $34.25 from $30. Average: $35.
- AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “buy”) to $121 from $120. Average: $120.11.
- Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T, “buy”) to $85 from $88. Average: $83.47.
- Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T, “buy”) to $11.75 from $11. Average: $11.
- Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NEO-T, “buy”) to $23 from $22.50. Average: $22.50.
- Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T, “buy”) to $23.50 from $23. Average: $20.
- Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “buy”) to $173 from $169. Average: $169.50.
“What to own in the here and now: WSP’s valuation continues to screen very attractively, in our view, given it is now behind ATRL and STN while also 12 per cennt below its 10-year average, on a P/E basis. We view the stock as our Best Idea as we believe the company is best positioned to manage key risks facing the sector: 1) U.S. organic growth acceleration; 2) the bifurcation in capital spending between data centre/AI themes and everything else; and 3) the emergence of AI as a key operational consideration for the engineering space,” he said.
“We anticipate there will be headwinds facing BDGI into 4Q25 results on concerns that near-term opex investment will not induce margin improvement in 2H26E. In our view, the company’s track record of instituting successful new operational plans (e.g. national accounts, dynamic pricing, etc.) should allow for some flex. We view the recent sell-off as overdone and would be buyers of the stock given the 2027E valuation is 16.5 times P/E.
“We believe ZDC [’buy’ rating and $7.25 target] has at least a five-year runway to add $20-25-million of EBITDA per annum and potentially more. This sort of growth profile has manifested into an expensive 2026E EV/EBITDA of 18.8 times but reasonable multiple of 11.7 times in 2027E. We believe the company is well positioned to deliver a beat and raise, which will provide continued support for the company’s elevated valuation.
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier sees the news that Elon Musk’s SpaceX is developing its own mobile device to connect to its StarLink constellation as “clearly positive” for MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T), prompting him to raise his valuation multiple and target price for shares of the Brampton, Ont.-based company “as recent developments derisk the MDA story and enhance visibility on forward outcomes.”
“[Thursday] morning, Reuters reported that SpaceX plans include making a mobile device connected to its Starlink constellation that could rival smartphones, according to three people familiar with the plans,” he explained. “Specifics on the device’s design or when Elon Musk plans to develop the product are unclear. Responding last week to an X user musing over a hypothetical Starlink phone, the SpaceX CEO stated that it was ‘not out of the question at some point’.
“While a SpaceX phone has been speculated for some time, confirmation in [Thursday] morning’s article (combined with the upcoming IPO) points to more concrete and material plans. If SpaceX pursues this path, it would place the company in direct competition with Apple. That, in turn, suggests prior reports of a potential Globalstar sale to SpaceX or an Apple–SpaceX partnership may have fallen apart (particularly given the absence of any news since the October Bloomberg report). If this is true, the Globalstar constellation now becomes strategically critical for Apple as it seeks to defend its offering against a potential SpaceX-branded phone. This would materially reduce the risk of Apple pivoting away from Globalstar/MDA in favour of an alternative solution, in our view. Moreover, when viewed alongside reports of a SpaceX–xAI merger, an upcoming IPO and plans for spacebased data centre expansion, a partnership with Apple or a Globalstar acquisition does not appear to be a near-term focus, looking from the outside."
David Berman: Relaunch: Is MDA Space firing up again?
Maintaining his “buy” rating for MDA shares, Mr. Poirier hiked his target to $48 from $39. The average on the Street is $45.
“Since 3Q, investors have gained line of sight on four incremental opportunities (South Korea, Canadian Arctic, RADARSAT+ and CSA-funded European work), have seen a favourable valuation comp with the approximately 12-times sales IPO of peer York Space (vs MDA trading at 3 times), in addition to reports that potentially signal that Apple–SpaceX talks may have stalled,” he noted.
With uranium prices rallying, National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé sees valuations for related stocks to benefit from " a tight market, quality assets and scale to lead to multiples expanding beyond those ranges."
“Spot prices criefly cross $100/lb in January 2026, moving rapidly from the low-$80s to over $100/lb with Sprott Physical Uranium Trust and other buyers entering the market before prices retreated to $85.25/lb as of February 5, 2026,“ he said. ”This continues to underscore how sensitive the spot market has become to marginal flows in an environment where discretionary supply remains limited.
“Term market continues to grind higher with utilities slowly showing up: Beneath spot volatility, the clearer signal is in the term market. Long-term prices have reset higher to $91/lb per TradeTech ($88/lb per UxC) from $87/lb at Dec. 31, 2025, contracting has shifted toward early 2030s deliveries, and terms are increasingly supplier-friendly with higher floors and more market-linked pricing. TradeTech notes utilities are prioritizing security of supply over price, extending coverage further out the curve despite thin spot liquidity.”
Emphasizing primary production remains in deficit with restarts “slower and costlier than promised” for even tier-one assets, “structural shift” in the need for both critical minerals and energy in the West is expected, Mr. Sidibé sees uranium equity multiples expanding beyond historical levels “with nuclear tailwinds still intact.”
“We expect uranium equities to be driven as much by ex-commodity catalysts (policy support, new builds, and hyperscaler demand) as by the uranium price, supporting multiples at the higher end of historical ranges as electrification boosts the need for reliable incremental power,” he said. “While we could see bouts of sharp volatility, such as on February 4-5, as broader AI-related risk-off sentiment weighs on parts of the market, we expect governments to remain focused on expanding the supply of electrons, with nuclear (and, by extension, uranium) positioned as a core component of the solution. In this environment, uranium equities are being rerated based on where the market anchors acceptable forward multiples for long-duration assets, not on the latest spot print.”
Raising valuation multiples for most names in his coverage universe, the analyst made these target revisions:
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “outperform”) to $175 from $145. The average on the Street is $152.79.
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T, “outperform”) to $6 from $4.85. Average: $5.11.
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T, “outperform”) to $19 from $18. Average: $17.75.
- Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC-A, “outperform”) to US$17 from US$16.50. Average: US$17.95.
“In this environment, uranium equities are being rerated based on where the market anchors acceptable forward multiples for long-duration assets, not on the latest spot print leading to target multiples exceeding prior historical peaks,” said Mr. Sidibé .“With this note, we raise our multiples for most names in our coverage universe and continue to see Denison Mines and NexGen Energy as our top picks on a future re-rate toward producer-level valuations on a discounted basis, while Cameco remains the most liquid, integrated and quality way to express the theme.”
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing it “in the midst of a strategic reset, pressured by high fixed-cost stores and SG&A despite the company’s success in growing sales and plans to turn the business” Barclays’ Adrienne Yih downgraded Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS-N, GOOS-T) to “underweight” from “equal-weight” with a US$10 target, down from US$12 and below the US$14.79 average on the Street.
“We expect shares to trade rangebound. We expect GOOS to lag our Positive view of broader retail due to structural and transitory challenges: 1) brand resonance challenged as competition intensifies; 2) DTC execution and related margin pressure; 3) seasonality and still-narrow product mix; 4) lack of guidance limiting visibility; and 5) Saks Global exposure with uncertain impact in the near-term. In our view, the combination of these issues will lead to continued volatile and inconsistent results. We expect top-line gains and inventory and promotional discipline to be overshadowed by fixed-costs pressuring margins, despite aggressive actions to reset their cost structure in FY27. Note, our UW rating of GOOS is relative to our sector. We remain Positive on the industry and believe there are higher-returning stocks in our coverage universe.,” she explained.
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo’s Ike Boruchow lowered his target to $19 (Canadian) from $22 with an “overweight” rating.
* In a quarterly earnings preview for fertilizer and chemical companies, CIBC’s Hamir Patel downgraded Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a US$52 target, rising from US$46 but remaining below the US$53.57 average.
“Since late-November, MEOH has been the best-performing name across our ferts and chems coverage universe, with shares rising 35 per cent, while also outperforming North American chemical peers by 10 per cent. While we have increased confidence in the company’s approach to capital allocation, as well as its ability to deliver more consistent operating performance and successfully integrate the OCI assets over the coming year, we believe that this has largely been reflected in MEOH’s share price following the positive momentum over the past two months. Additionally, we see limited upside risks to realized methanol prices as macro headwinds and a tough olefins cycle weigh on demand, pressuring margins amid rising gas costs. As a result, our 2026 EBITDA estimate is 6 per cent lower than consensus,” said Mr. Patel.
* Scotia Capital’s John Zamparo downgraded Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI-T) to “sector underperform” from “sector perform” with a $6 target, down from $6.50 and below the average on the Street of $6.83.
“Several risks for RSI have emerged or intensified that lead us to downgrade to Sector Underperform. The following summarizes our bearish thesis. 1) This year’s volume guide, previously at down 4.5 per cent (excluding an extra week) was now lowered to down 6 per cent; other guidance changes were negative as well (domestic sales lower, SG&A higher). 2) Though FQ1 looked like a sizable beat, this was from one-time items. Absent these, we estimate EBITDA was a double-digits miss and double-digits year-over-year decline. 4) GLP-1s are having a greater impact and we expect this to increase through F26 due to lower pricing. We believe RSI has limited ability to offset this. 5) Lower population growth is playing out as expected. 6) RSI should see higher costs in F27 from a new labour contract. 7) Some level of trade risk exists from upcoming CUSMA negotiations. Management deserves credit for finding cost savings, taking pricing, and managing a massive renovation. We don’t see material downside, though we believe earnings potential has taken a more negative turn, all while the stock reacted positively [Thursday] and, on a P/E basis, RSI trades near its long-term average,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* In a report titled 40 is the New 30 with Hemlo Upside in View, National Bank’s Don DeMarco initiated coverage of Hemlo Mining Corp. (HMMC-X), a Toronto-based single-asset gold producer which commenced trading on the TSX Venture Exchange on Dec. 2, with an “outperform” rating and $9 target, matching the average on the Street.
“Multiple de-risking catalysts are on deck including an updated resource in Q1/26 [for its flagship 100-per-cent-owned Hemlo Gold mine], with expectations for resource accretion firmly in place as noted above. 2026 operating guidance and Q4/25 financials are pending release in H1/26, providing initial validation of operating metrics,” he said. “An updated Technical Report is tracking H2/27, bearing the fruits of production and costs optimizations, a larger resource and mine life extensions. HMMC also plans to begin the process of listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in H1/26, targeting potential listing in 2027 providing sightlines to broaden investor appeal and lift trading liquidity.”
* Scotia’s Francesco Costanzo initiated coverage of NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG-T) with a “sector outperform” rating and $21 target. The average is $19.18.
“As NOVAGOLD continues to advance the Donlin project through receipt of final permits and project financing, we believe there is a significant valuation re-rating opportunity. As a single-asset developer, we expect the company’s valuation to re-rate higher as it advances through major near-term development milestones,” he said.
* BMO’s Michael Markidis initiated coverage of Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target, The average is $19.
“Our constructive stance reflects PMZ’s strategic positioning as a leading owner of enclosed malls across Canada, and potential growth through occupancy upside and portfolio optimization. Lease-up risk and PMZ’s tenant mix, which skews more discretionary than other retail-focused peers, are two idiosyncratic concerns,” said Mr. Markidis. “In our view, these risks are mitigated by PMZ’s strong financial position and attractive relative valuation.”
* In response to Thursday’s quarterly release, National Bank’s Adam Shine raised his BCE Inc. (BCE-T) target by $1 to $39 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $39.50 from $40.25 with a “sector outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $40 from $41 with a “buy” rating. The average is $37.37.
“Amid the market’s rotation toward tangible assets and increased market volatility, telecom companies offer defensive properties. That said, we are concerned by the increase in promotional activities in recent weeks. We nonetheless believe telecom investors — who typically focus on FCF — will view BCE’s FCF growth story favourably,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* Believing “muted” guidance is “no match for strong metal pricing,” ATB Capital Markets’ Stefan Ioannou raised his Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) target to $50 from $37 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $47.74.
“We continue to view Ero as a ‘staple’ mid-tier copper producer that also offers significant gold exposure, noting the precious metal accounts for more than 25 per cent of the company’s 2026E revenue in our model. With Tucumã ramp-up now nearing completion, and other organic growth opportunities at existing operations taking shape, the stage is set for strong FCF generation over the foreseeable future, augmented by longer-dated Furnas development potential. Conversely, notable risks to this thesis include sustained, or lack thereof, (ramp-up) operational performance and (negative) metal price volatility,” said Mr. Ioannou.
* While its second-quarter was “better than feared as cloud bookings growth continues,” RBC’s Paul Treiber trimmed his Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) target to US$30 from US$33 with a “sector perform” rating, while Raymond James’ Steven Li cut his target to US$42 from US$48 with an “outperform” rating, thinking “the software sell-off is overdone for OTEX.” Other changes include: Barclays’ Raimo Lenschow to US$30 from US$39 with an “equal-weight” rating and Citi’s Steven Enders to US$26 from US$36 with a “neutral” rating. The average is US$36.50.
“Due to negative investor sentiment regarding AI disruption, OpenText’s valuation has dropped to 5 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E, which is at the low-end of its 10-year historical range (12 times average, 5-16 times range) and below peers at 19 times. OpenText intends to increase its share buybacks ($50-million last quarter), which may help support the stock. We believe the company needs to deliver consistent bookings growth, cRPO [committed remaining performance obligations], and organic growth to drive improved sentiment,” said Mr. Treiber.
* In a note titled The whey it should be done, RBC’s Irene Nattel emphasized Saputo Inc.’s (SAP-T) “strong momentum [was] sustained” in its third quarter of 2026, leading her to raise her target for its shares to $50 from $47 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $44.71.
“With another solid and better than expected earnings release, it appears that green shoots of recovery at SAP have become green leaves,” she said. “Adjusted EBITDA $492-million (up 18 per cent year-over-year) 2 per cent/4 per cent above consensus/forecast. All geographies again delivered volume growth, biggest contributors to EBITDA $$ growth were USA and international. Tone of F26 outlook remains constructive despite heightened commodity market volatility in the US. SAP active on NCIB, underscoring commitment to returning capital to shareholders. EBITDA/EPS estimates rise modestly, EPS up 2.5-5 per cent, F25-F28E EBITDA/EPS CAGR’s 11 per cent/20 per cent.”