Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Heading into first-quarter earnings season for Canada’s banks, CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden is “positive” on the outlook for the sector, seeing similar “upside drivers” to 2025, including capital markets, wealth and operating leverage.
“Credit losses may tick higher, but are unlikely to disrupt the positive narrative,” he added. “The biggest challenge for the group is elevated valuation multiples. Rotating some money out of banks into lifecos makes sense at this juncture. Within banks, we favour the names with strong ROE expansion stories.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Holden raised his quarterly earnings per share estimates by 2.3 per cent and by 1.6 per cent for the full year, pointing to the impact stronger nominal interest rates through capital markets and wealth.
“Key themes this quarter include: strong capital markets supported by investment banking, ROE expansion, modestly higher credit losses, NIM expansion and positive operating leverage. The banks that can deliver the most ROE expansion over the next two to three years are most likely to be the best performing stocks. We like BMO, NA and TD on this theme,” he added.
Citing its “current premium valuation and to maintain a balanced rating distribution across our coverage universe,” Mr. Holden downgraded Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $136 target, up from $129. The average target on the Street is $131, according to LSEG data.
“Our fundamental outlook has not changed and we still see potential for upside to consensus earnings, including in U.S. Retail Banking. After a period of significant outperformance, there is less room for relative upside to the group, in our view,” he said.
Conversely, Mr. Holden raised his rating for National Bank of Canada (NA-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $189 target, up from $179 and exceeding the $173.70 average.
“NA has lagged the group year-to-date and is no longer trading at a valuation premium,” he said. “We like the ROE expansion story, which is largely premised on realizing the financial benefits of the CWB acquisition. NA has the second strongest capital position (after TD) and has started to buy back a meaningful amount of stock. Trading revenue might be a bit of a headwind to start the year, but investment banking and wealth management should be meaningful offsets. We also expect a better NIM trajectory for NA in F2026 vs. F2025. There is potential for material upside to 2027 consensus EPS as NA delivers on the CWB integration.”
The analyst also made these target revisions:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “outperformer”) to $209 from $199. Average: $192.18.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “neutral”) to $108 from $103. Average: $103.35.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “neutral”) to $242 from $229. Average: $238.
"We are increasing our price targets for all the big banks to reflect multiple expansion for the group," explained Mr. Holden. “Our price targets are based on a group average P/E of 12.8 times (where the banks are currently trading on F2027 consensus) and applying a premium/discount for each bank. Our assumed valuation premiums/discounts in most cases are close to where each bank is trading today. The biggest difference is for NA, which is trading at a 1-per-cent discount to the group, but we assume it trades at a 5-per-cent premium. We are also different on TD, which is trading at a 3-per-cent premium to the group, but we assume it should trade in line."
Seeing contributions from its U.S. wealth management “gaining stream,” Jefferies analyst John Aiken raised his rating for Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) to “buy” from “hold” following the release of “impressive” quarterly results.
“Coming out of the third quarter there were questions about whether Great-West could maintain the improved profitability that were answered in solid fourth quarter earnings,” he said in a client note. “Earnings momentum was maintained as its engine for future outsized growth in the U.S. appears to be gaining traction. We expect that the fourth quarter results should be sufficient to gain back some of GWO’s lost valuation since the start of the year and we are upgrading our rating.”
The Winnipeg-based company’s shares rose 1.1 per cent on Thursday after it reported 12-per-cent year-over-year growth for the quarter and a fiscal year gain of 11 per cent for 2025. Mr. Aiken attributed the increases to “continued strength in the U.S. as Empower maintained its momentum.” Core earnings per share of $1.36 topped his estimate by 5 cents and the Street’s expectation by 7 cents.
“Great-West sustained the improved performance it demonstrated in the third quarter and should go a long way in reversing the recent decline in its absolute and relative valuation. The earnings trajectory that Great-West has been enjoying has resulted in another 50bps lift in its trailing four quarter ROE [return on equity] to 18.2 per cent, up from the 17.5 per cent reported a year ago.
“Earnings did decline sequentially from a standout third quarter (as anticipated), largely as positive insurance experience eased. Each of GWO’s operating segments demonstrated growth against the prior year, except for Europe, which saw earnings decline largely on the back of the impact of lower investment returns based on remittances to the holdco. The performance out of the U.S. stood out with a 15-per-cent increase from the prior year. The U.S. retirement platform stagnated from the third quarter (after a significant jump) but the burgeoning U.S. wealth operations continued the strong trajectory from the third quarter and was up 42% from a year ago. We note that the Capital and Risk Solutions segment also demonstrated strong growth and led on a fiscal year growth basis.”
With “increased confidence in U.S. growth,” Mr. Aiken bumped his target for Great-West shares to $70 from $67. The average target on the Street is $68.17, according to LSEG data.
“Great-West has developed a unique growth profile, taking a long-term view of its operations as it benefits from the stable ownership from its parent, Power Corporation,” he added. “GWO has historically shown greater resiliency to periods of economic stress, given a conservative approach to running its businesses and balance sheet. Further, after the sale of Putnam, Great-West has closed the door on a challenged part of its business and is no longer encumbered with the negative sentiment associated with its underperformance. Empower is a key driver for Great-West’s growth moving forward; it is capital-light and can be used as a springboard for growth in its wealth operations, augmenting its Personal Capital platform.”
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* BMO’s Tom MacKinnon to $66 from $68 with a “market perform” rating.
* RBC’s Darko Mihelic to $64 from $60 with a “sector perform” rating.
While he saw Russel Metals Inc.’s (RUS-T) fourth-quarter results as “solid” with “few surprises,” National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev now sees “few catalysts on the horizon as [the hot rolled coil] rally is already priced in,” leading him to downgrade his recommendation to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“RUS management is executing admirably well; buying back stock when it matters, doing accretive M&A, investing in value-add projects, etc.,” he explained. “From a trading perspective, however, our 2026 and 2027 EBITDA projections are essentially the same as the actuals in 2023 when HRC spiked. RUS’ share price is inextricably linked to commodity movements as organic volume growth has been in the low-single digits; with a 30%+ move up off early November 2025 lows, we believe the risk/reward now is more balanced. Note also that over the last three years, we have pronounced HRC moves up into the spring only to be deflated as the year progresses. History does not repeat itself exactly, but it certainly rhymes.”
Shares of the Toronto-based metal distribution company dropped 8.8 per cent on Thursday after it reported revenue for the quarter of $1.094-billion, up 5 per cent year-over-year but below both Mr. Sytchev’s $1.145-billion estimate and the consensus forecast of $1.13-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of 59 cents matched the analyst’s projection and topped the Street by 6 cents.
“With Q1/26E to include a full contribution from Kloeckner and rising metals prices, revenues should continue their upward trajectory (we forecast a 27-per-cent year-over-year increase in the core MSC segment),” said Mr. Sytchev. “On a pro forma basis, the U.S. market now accounts for more than half of revenues and non-ferrous exposure is at a low-double-digit run-rate. In addition, reduced working capital has lowered the effective purchase price to US$95-million (vs. US$118.6-million initially). That said, integration and operational optimization will take a number of quarter, constraining margin expansion for 2026 (management expects roughly flat year-over-year margins for the current quarter).
“End-market commentary generally optimistic. Management noted that RUS continues to gain share across North America, and is encouraged by recent rising manufacturing PMIs in Canada and the U.S. In addition, mill utilization rates continue to rise and lead times are lengthening, implying solid end-market demand (quite strong in the U.S., mixed in Canada) and potentially higher pricing (given the pass-through nature of RUS revenues, this would raise RUS’ nominal gross margin dollars in a roughly linear fashion).”
After fine-tuning his cost structure and margin profile, he raised his target for Russel shares to $56 from $54. The average target is $52.38.
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* RBC’s James McGarragle to $55 from $51 with an “outperform” rating.
“Russel Metals reported Q4 EBITDA of $72-million excluding net $3-million of one-time charges, above consensus of $69-million (RBCe: $65-million). Key for us from the quarter though was commentary that recent positive PMI readings are consistent with conversations management is having with its customers, pointing to a solid demand backdrop to start the year. This combined with higher steel pricing as well as integration upside from Kloeckner point to an inflection in ROIC, which we expect to be an important driver of earnings growth in 2026. Therefore, we’re surprised to see the shares trade down today and continue to flag an attractive investment opportunity,” he said.
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman $54 from $52 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“All key earnings drivers are moving in the right direction: 1) volumes are benefitting from data center build out (i.e., structural steel, racking) while other end-markets ex Ag are doing well (tone was bullish on call); 2) HRC is up 5 per cent year-to-date while lead times are extending and mill utilization rates are nearing 80 per cent, a level that typically supports pricing power; and 3) the company continues to build dry powder and deploy capital effectively (reduced shares outstanding by 5 per cent in 2025; ended up paying closer to 3 times EV/EBITDA for Kloeckner vs. initial headline multiple of 4.2 times).”
“RUS trades at 8.3 times on our 2026/2027 estimates; we think that’s especially attractive given the company is at low risk of AI disruption amid indiscriminate selling.”
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $50.50 from $49 with a “hold” rating.
“We reiterate our thesis that the stock is properly valued at this level with P/Book at 1.45 times. We think the business quality remains high, and the capital allocation strategy is well-defined, but we await a better entry point for the stock,” said Mr. Gillies.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $57 from $50 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4 EBITDA was in line with expectations. Encouragingly, RUS noted improving demand in most end-markets. Meanwhile, recent steel price gains are supportive of improved underlying Service Centers margins q/q. While margins at recently acquired Kloeckner locations are expected to act as an offset near-term, there is an opportunity to drive improvements over time. We see RUS’ valuation as attractive,” said Mr. Tupholme.
Following the conclusion of Advantage Energy Ltd.’s (AAV-T) strategic review, National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne thinks investors should “refocus on fundamental returns, with a view to establishing an optimized view of value to come through its organic program and structurally improving gas prices.”
After the bell on Thursday, the Calgary-based company’s board of directors announced it has completed its strategic review and dissolved the special committee, concluding none of the proposals received or strategic alternatives evaluated, including a sale, merger, and other transactions, were the best path to maximize shareholder value.
With the removal of uncertainty hanging over the company, Mr. Payne raised his recommendation for Advantage shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, which he said is “a reflection of a transition to a long-term valuation paradigm and commensurate 50/50 target multiple ascribed to 2026 & 2027, from a prior near-term (2026) valuation matrix that was in anticipation of a near-term value outcome.”
“Admittedly, running a strategic review through a generationally challenged commodity price environment probably didn’t surface a high-degree of attractive alternatives, and management’s vision has been vindicated (high-efficiency cash flow per share growth),” said Mr. Payne. “For now, the resolution to this long-outstanding (year-long) process should allow investors to refocus on the organic fundamental value creation and opportunity looking into a potentially structurally improving gas market (as opposed to what had been mired under a lens of near-term valuation outcomes). While mild shareholder recirculation may be expected, that risk is limited given the stock had not priced in a successful outcome (trading in line with a discount with peers).”
“With that, we acknowledge the strength of execution by the company over the past year, with Q4/25 production reported at 79.8 mboe/d (up 12 per cent quarter-over-quarter, although liquids down 11 per cent quarter-over-quarter) and current volumes trending 4 per cent ahead of expectations at 80 mboe/d. That comes on the back of continued high-efficiency results in both the Montney & Charlie Lake at Glacier. Furthermore, the company has continued to optimize its positioning, high-grading its capital program (by $20-million or 6 per cent), disposing of minor non-core ($12-million), rationalizing processing (in support of costs), securing new transport (in support of realizations) and expanding its hedge position (1/3rd of gas hedged for 2026). That serves to position the company well to execute its 2026 budget, to provide for 6 per cent per annum growth (11 per cent net of downtime) within the context of a 60-per-cent payout to suggest an incremental 10-per-cent FCF yield. Highlights of that program will see it realize meaningful value milestone in H2/26, upon which it will achieve production of 90 mboe/d while maximizing FCF (given a H1-weighted spend; flexibility remains should gas prices remain low) that should compound the opportunity for a meaningful return of the buyback (and increased momentum), and each of which, under improved gas pricing, will be better measures of the ultimate value potential here.”
Mr. Payne moved his target for the company’s shares to $15 from $14. The average is $14.50.
“AAV is poised for a 16-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 11 per cent) on leverage of 1.1 times (vs. peers 0.8 times), while trading at 4.9 times 2026 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 5.6 times),” he noted.
Elsewhere,ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Kalvin Baim trimmed his target to $14 from $15 with an “outperform” rating.
“Despite near-term sentiment headwinds, the company is driving capital efficiency through a $20-million budget reduction and remains positioned for a significant free cash flow inflection in the back half of 2026,” he said.
While he thinks Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust’s (AP.UN-T) $560-million capital raise should “help alleviate some of the balance sheet pressure,” Desjardins Securities analyst Lorne Kalmar is “skeptical that it is enough to provide a full reset for the REIT.”
“The action plan and outlook are not without risk and, in our view, IFRS values are still too high,” he said. “While we believe the stock still screens somewhat expensive on a P/FFO, P/NAV and implied cap rate basis, and that the path forward to recovery is far from certain, we are moving our rating to Hold from Sell following this week’s sell-off.”
David Berman: The case for Allied Properties is fading, but not gone
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Kalmar thinks the equity raise is “at least is not far off” from providing “a sufficient reset” for the REIT, which owns workspaces in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary and Kitchener, “assuming everything goes according to plan.”
“However, several components of AP’s action plan and outlook are beyond its control, which means there is risk that things do not materialize as contemplated,” he warned. “While the cadence of occupancy recovery in management’s outlook is more modest than it has been in past years, there are still risks to achieving those targets, in our view. The capital repatriation plans, comprising dispositions, the sale of a majority interest in 150 West Georgia and KING Toronto closings, carry some level of uncertainty as well. This implies that maintaining its IG credit rating is also not guaranteed. Additionally, the $560-million raise is only expected to have a 1.5 turn impact on ND/EBITDA, and at its target of low-9 times ND/ EBITDA by 2028, leverage would still screen high vs other Canadian commercial REITs and its U.S. office peers.”
With his rating revision, Mr. Kalmar lowered his target for Allied units to $9.50 from $12.50. The average is $14.30.
Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks Bombardier Inc.’s (BBD.B-T) new US$1.18-billion order from Dubai-based private jet provider Vista Global for 40 Challenger 3500 business jets “further strengthens visibility into the company’s FCF algorithm through decade-end and ”increases conviction in [his] 2030 blue-sky $432 target."
“It also reinforces our view that BBD has no medium-term need for a clean-sheet midsize aircraft,” he added. “Finally, we do not view the near-term engine supply-chain challenges as affecting the company’s long-term trajectory. These issues are temporary and industry-wide, not specific to BBD.”
In a client report reviewing Thursday’s release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results titled Flight plan unchanged, Mr. Poirier now thinks Bombardier’s 2026 free cash flow guidance is “overly conservative.”
“BBD said on the call that its US$600–1,000-million FCF guidance assumes book-to-bill normalizing to approximately 1.0 times (down from 1.4 times in 2025), partial recovery of supply chain disruption costs in 2H (but offset by strategic investments in defence and R&D) and a range of working capital outcomes," he explained.
“While the Vista order is unlikely to be a major FCF swing factor in 2026 (limited advances), with the strong fundamentals we are seeing in the supply constrained bizjet market (record flights, fleet market share gain, bonus depreciation, lower interest rates, wealth creation/K-shaped economy and tight pre-owned inventory), we expect another robust year for bookings (plus the defence pipeline). We have only slightly reduced our FCF estimate for 2026 to US$875-million (from US$909-million).”
With its reduced leverage, Mr. Poirier now thinks Bombardier can now “begin shifting away from a sole focus on debt reduction.”
“However, management does not yet believe it can commit to returning cash to shareholders,” he said. “The strategy is to continue lowering debt and interest expense, targeting 1.5 times leverage, while remaining opportunistic under a ROIC-driven framework. Management noted it has a pipeline of aftermarket M&A opportunities that it is actively evaluating. We now forecast BBD will end 2026 at 1.3 times leverage and 2027 at 0.6 times, providing plenty of dry powder.”
Reiterating his bullish stance and a “buy” rating for Bombardier shares, Mr. Poirier hiked his target to a Street high of $304 from $260. The average is $265.23.
Elsewhere, other revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Tim James to $280 from $276 with a “hold” rating.
“Bombardier fundamentals are strong based on Q4 results, 2026 guide, and implications from backlog growth and defense spending environment. Valuation and remaining risks (supply chain, USMCA, geopolitical) only reason for caution and maintaining HOLD despite recent pullback. Q4 another reminder of the solid progress at what has become a high quality industrial with long-term upside,” said Mr. James.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $286 from $290 with an “outperform” rating.
“Although recent tariff threats may weigh on the stock in the near-term (we see this as a low probability event), we still see upside potential supported by the following: (1) Business jet end-market conditions remain positive with growth in flight activity and solid new business jet orders (Bombardier unit book-to-bill at 1.4x in 2025 with order activity continuing to be healthy), which gives us confidence that Bombardier can sustain aircraft deliveries at current or slightly higher levels over a multi-year period and also deliver on higher-margin aftermarket growth; (2) Bombardier is enjoying strong momentum in its Defense segment ($1.0 billion in revenue in 2025), and we expect further growth ahead supported by defence spending increases globally; (3) With leverage continuing to come down (1.9x at the end of 2025 with a target to hit 1.5 times) and free cash flow expected to be strong in the coming years, we see the potential for capital to be deployed towards NCIB and tuck-in M&A to bolster the company’s position in the aftermarket and defence sectors (acquisition of Velocity Maintenance Solutions announced earlier this week supports aftermarket growth),” said Mr. Doerksen.
In other analyst actions:
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski moved his target for Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) to US$60 from US$58 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Sohrab Movahedi to US$51 from US$49 with an “outperform” rating and Scotia’s Mario Saric to US$52 from US$49 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$54.43.
“BN’s focus on real assets including laying the backbone infrastructure for AI position the company well in the current environment, which is characterized by AI disruption fears across virtually all sectors. Longer-term, BN continues to have multiple potential catalysts to deliver multi-year growth in DE and value per share: (1) growth in Brookfield Wealth Solutions; (2) cash carried interest that management expects to step-up in 2026 and beyond; (3) selling down Core Plus/Value Add/Opportunistic real estate assets; and (4) continued accretive share buybacks. Increasing price target from $58 to $60 to reflect strong real estate fundamentals,” said Mr. Dziarski.
* Ventum Capital Markets’ Rob Goff hiked his Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) to $84 from $72 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: RBC’s Paul Treiber to $78 from $66 with an “outperform” rating and Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne to $85 from $70 with a “buy” rating. The average is $73.88.
“Q1/F26 represents an encouraging second consecutive quarterly beat,” said Mr. Goff. “Both quarters reflected 12-per-cent revenue growth evenly split between organic and acquisitive gains. The conference call narrative was encouraging, reflecting plans to return to 8-10-per-cent annual revenue growth. Management noted that its acquisition pipeline is strong and Calian is optimistic it will successfully complete deals in the year. ... We believe the Q2/26 outperformance, building pipeline, and macro lead tailwinds support a further PT raise. We are not pulling back our bullish view despite recent moves.”
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland trimmed his Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T) target to $72 from $74 with a “market perform” rating, while Barclays’ Alex Scott bumped his target to $81 from $80 with an “equal-weight” rating The average is $83.75.
“We are introducing our 2027 estimates and moving our valuation to that year. The integration [of the Canadian operations of The Travelers Companies Inc.] will be ongoing for the next two years, and we believe we will not see a material increase in ROE over that period. We continue to believe the valuation is fair at these levels,” said Mr. Boland.
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack bumped his First Capital REIT (FCR.UN-T) target to $23.50 from $23 with an “outperform” rating, while RBC’s Pammi Bir moved his target to $23 from $22 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.44.
“FCR put up solid Q4 results capping off a strong year of earnings growth supported by improved SPNOI [same-property net operating income] performance,” said Mr. Kornack. “2026 will build upon this foundation, albeit with some temporary vacancy that will be back-filled over the course of the year and for which the REIT received termination income in Q4/25. Early refinancing activity is expected to reduce near-term earnings but nonetheless we expect organic top-line growth combined with dispositions of low or no yielding assets to result in moderate 2-yr earnings improvement. Recent trading outperformance has expanded multiples but there is still room to the upside relative to historic levels and with the portfolio achieving peak operating performance metrics.”
* RBC’s Maurice Choy increased his Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) target to $80 from $79 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Ben Pham to $77 from $74 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to $80 from $79 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Theo Genzebu to $78.50 from $75.50 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler to $81 from $79 with a “buy” rating. The average is $71.99.
“Fortis continues to show momentum, with solid Q4/25 results and signs that there is further growth ahead relative to its recently upgraded base plan. Macro events may ultimately drive fund flows in and out of the stock and sector, but we like that its credible management team is pushing forward on matters within its control across its diversified portfolio. With the stock performing in line with North American peers on a YTD basis, market sentiment remains positive on Fortis’ shares, offering investors a tried-and-tested defensive exposure at a fair valuation, with upside from data center growth in Arizona,” said Mr. Choy.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Jeff Fenwick reduced his goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) target to $185 from $200 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $173.
“TGSY has yet to issue details of its Q4 results release. Q4 is set to be a ‘coin toss’ quarter, where a ‘clean’ result could trigger a big rally, while any negative headlines could trigger a meaningful sell-off, and we can find few data points to help inform our expectations. We believe GSY’s business is far sturdier than what many believe, providing a potentially rich reward for patient investors,” said Mr. Fenwick.
* Mr. Fenwick raised his Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) target to $52 from $46.75 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $54.50.
“TSU’s Q4 results came in closely in line with our forecast, with Operating EPS at $0.75, a penny better than our estimate and above consensus of $0.72. Importantly, strength came across virtually all fronts. In 2026, we believe significant growth investments made over the last two years are set to drive stronger earnings performance and begin to lift ROE further, which should benefit valuation,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil increased his Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) target to $56 from $52, keeping a “buy” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Ben Pham to $54 from $51 with an “outperform” rating and “top pick” designation, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $52 from $49 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $63 from $62 with an “outperform” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $48 from $46 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $52.63.
“Keyera’s intraday share price performance has exceeded what we view as a relatively neutral Q4/25 print, which we attribute to the tuck-in Simonette acquisition and reiteration of expectations around the Plains transaction close. We reiterate Keyera as our top pick and note that our increased $56 PT reflects broader multiple expansion across our coverage,” said Mr. MacNeil.
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan trimmed his Killam Apartment REIT (KMP.UN-T) target to $21 from $22, remaining above the $18.50 average, with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to $20 from $21 with a “buy” rating, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Sairam Srinivas to $20 from $21 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $20 from $20.25 with an “outperform” rating.
“In the context of tougher operating conditions, we view KMP’s 2026 outlook to be relatively positive. KMP’s low in place rent, steady renewal rate growth and MTM in the high single digit range imply 3-per-cent-plus revenue growth is still achievable in 2026, despite elevated supply and low population growth. Moreover, we think increased defence spending is a tailwind in the medium term. At an implied cap rate of 5.9 per cent and 17 times AFFO, valuation remains attractive, especially relative to other asset classes,” said Mr. Shan.
* RBC’s Darko Mihelic raised his Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) target to $55 from $52 with an “outperform” rating, while Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic bumped his target to $56 from $55 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $57.18.
“MFC’s results included better than expected insurance experience in corporate not “high quality” earnings, but still we see earnings as solid and we are not fussed on Asia. MFC suggested recent U.S. mortality experience is within expected ranges but the U.S. has seen negative experience for quite some time, prompting some skepticism. Asia sales were down year-over-year due to regulatory changes in broker channels (and it was a tough comp), but we still see solid upside there. We view the launch of a new NCIB favourably,” said Mr. Mihelic.
* Mr. Mihelic also raised his Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T) target to $95 from $83 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Tom MacKinnon to $100 from $95 with an “outperform” rating, Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $96 from $93 with a “sector perform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $101 from $96 with a “buy” rating. The average is $91.34.
“SLF’s results were above our expectations especially in the U.S. where experience was far better than expected. SLF seemed content with its pricing initiatives in stop loss and even picked up market share which suggests a good improvement in earnings power next year. MFS continues to have sizeable net outflows, the largest quarterly net outflows this year, but with a more robust U.S. earnings estimate (and continued strength in Asia) our core EPS and ROE estimates rise significantly,” he said.
* Stifel’s initiated coverage of Halifax-based Maritime Launch Services Inc. (MAXQ-NE) with a “buy” rating and 75-cent target.
“Maritime Launch Services (MLS) is a spaceport-as-a-service provider of infrastructure for rocket launch,” he said. “Our investment thesis on MAXQ: 1) Canada has pledged commitment to sovereign space launch capability to advance national security and trade objectives –MLS is currently the only viable domestic spaceport option implying strong potential for Canadian military commercial support, 2) U.S. launch demand outstrips supply – Canada-US TSA Agreement allows MLS to service US launch providers, 3) fast tracked regulatory approvals, operational and utility support agreements, adjacent deep port access, and optimal geographic location all suggest superior spaceport economics, 4) medium-lift pad expansion optionality provides a material potential future catalyst. We are initiating coverage of MAXQ with a BUY rating and $0.75 target – we think the high cash flow and strategic importance of infrastructure provides downside support."
* National Bank’s Dan Payne hiked his Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) target to $140 from $120 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $143 from $131 with an “outperform” rating and RBC’s Keith Mackey to $124 from $119 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $124.90.
“Very sound & stable earnings reflect the resilience of returns, and underlying value, in a stock that continues to present very compelling value within a sector where multiple expansion is increasingly evident; PD trades at 4.3 times 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA (vs. peers 4.6 times), on leverage of 0.8 times (vs. peers 1.8 times). We reiterate our SP rating and raise our target to $140/sh, on continued visibility & stability of a high-quality earnings base that is actively translating in to meaningful free cash and accelerating return of capital,” said Mr. Payne.
* Following a “mixed” fourth-quarter report, RBC’s Logan Reich lowered his Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) target to US$80 from US$82 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Andrew Strelzik to US$81 from US$83 with an “outperform” rating, Barclays’ Jeffrey A. Bernstein to US$82 from US$86 with an “overweight” rating and Scotia’s John Zamparo to US$71 from US$74 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$78.53.
“QSR beat on top- and bottom-line in 4Q, but BK SSS [Burger King same-store sales] missed higher buy-side bar and TH [Tim Hortons] SSS came in below consensus. Key positives include: 1) International SSS beat by 233 bps with strength across several key markets. 2) AOI beat consensus expectations by 2.0 per cent and management reiterated outlook for 8-per-cent-plus growth in FY26. The less positives include: 1) BK beat by only 70 bps which was likely below buy-side and smaller beat than MCD’s 152 bps. Further, management noted pace of remodels will slow, though capex was guided up. 2) TH SSS missed by 84 bps and decelerated on 1, 2, and 3yr stack. 3) PLK SSS missed by 227 bps as elevated competition and operational execution remain challenged,” said Mr. Reich.
* In response to Thursday’s announcement of an agreement to divest 80 per cent of its Argentinian operations to Gloria Foods, TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst moved his target for Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) to $52 from $51, exceeding the $47.38 average, with a “buy” rating. Elsewhere, Scotia’s John Zamparo raised his target to $49 from $47 with a “sector outperform” rating
“Valuation should react positively to sale of SAP’s most volatile business unit, particularly since capital is likely to be redirected to support N.A. growth, be it organic or M&A. ARG assets were nearing capacity and required material capex to continue growing — given the political/economic environment in the country, SAP must have determined that this capex would be better spent elsewhere," said Mr. Van Aelst.
* Citi’s Tyler Radke reduced his Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) target to US$172 from US$195 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$162.03.
“We are updating our Shopify model following strong Q4 results. Q4 saw total revenue growth 3pts ahead of expectations (more upside from MS segment than Subscription) and GMV [gross merchandise volume] growth of 31 per cent year-over-year. An impressive 1Q26 revenue guide of low-30s (despite typically slower GMV) shows Shopify can continue to accelerate growth into 2026 and may be benefiting from early Agentic commerce tailwinds both in terms of explosive growth and continued strength in international/up-market share gains. We view the sell-off in shares as overdone for a one-of-a-kind asset with highly defensible network/infrastructure effects and a business that continues to accelerate growth at scale with ramping profitability,” said Mr. Radke.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini cut his Telus Corp. (T-T) target to $21 from $25 with a “buy” rating, while ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ David McFadgen cut his target to $19 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $20.95.
“We expect some volatility for T shares until there is certainty on potential asset sales (seems unlikely over the next 1-2 months, but we are optimistic over 6-12 months), and until the incoming CEO provides some clarity on the dividend. We now model a 30-per-cent dividend reduction in 2027, but even with that we see enough upside over 12 months to retain our BUY rating,” said Mr. Valentini
* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman raised his TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) target to $187 from $184.50 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $187.38.
“TVK shares are typically volatile around earnings with the average up/down move in the 10-per-cent range,” said Mr. Goldman. “We see the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity as there was nothing in the results that shifts our positive view of the story. Rather, the 1Q miss was mostly a modeling issue: we believe EnTrans is still run-rating at trough EBITDA, but that 1Q should be the weakest quarter and gradually improve through the year, similar to the cadence of trailer peer Wabash (WNC-US). Conversely, we were modeling a linear contribution from EnTrans in F2026. We lowered our fiscal 2026 estimates and raised our 2027 estimates.”
* Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne raised his Vecima Networks Inc. (VCM-T) target to $16 from $15 with a “buy” rating. The average is $18.50.
“The long-term growth story from the upgrades of the broadband network appears to be intact,” said Mr. Byrne. “The company anticipates solid annual revenue growth in FY26 and improved margins over the next year.”