Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While he sees Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.’s (PEY-T) execution remaining “strong,” TD Cowen analyst Aaron Bilkoski thinks its valuation is now “fair.”
Accordingly, in response to the stock’s strong outperformance since he named it his “Top Pick” on Dec. 4, he lowered his rating to “hold” from “buy” after it exceeded his target price of $25.
“Although we continue to view Peyto as one of the highest quality operators in the basin, with a disciplined capital framework and consistent execution, we believe these strengths are increasingly reflected in the current share price,” he said in a client note following Thursday’s release of its year-end 2025 reserves and formalized 2026 capital budget.
“Based on our gas price assumptions (US$3.85/mcf HH, C$2.95/mcf AECO), Peyto’s current share price equates to a hedge-adjusted valuation of 7.0 times 12-month forward EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] and 8-per-cent sustaining 12-month forward FCF yield. Under strip pricing (US$3.87/mcf HH, C$1.87/mcf AECO) these figures become more elevated - 8.7 times 12-month forward EV/DACF and 5-per-cent sustaining 12-month forward FCF yield.”
Mr. Bilkoski reiterated his $25 target for shares of the Calgary-based company. The average target on the Street is $24.75, according to LSEG data.
“We believe near term upside is limited under our current assumptions, but could improve with higher-than-forecast gas prices, accretive M&A, or operational outperformance,” he said.
“Peyto is well-hedged through 2026, which provides stability to its currently high dividend yield. We expect Peyto to continue to post stronger-than-historical well performance from the Repsol assets, drive down unit costs, and benefit from a unique supply agreement with the Cascade power plant. We are downgrading our rating to HOLD (from Buy) given our view that the current premium represents fair valuation and the 20-per-cent outperformance versus peers since December.
Elsewhere, RBC’s Michael Harvey increased his target to $27 from $24 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Peyto provided its annual reserves summary (full AIF with detail will be provided prior to April), which highlighted reserves up 6 per cent year-over-year ... Of particular note was the company’s recycle ratio of 3.8 times (PDP), which we expect will be amongst the strongest in the gas group and underpinned by favorable hedging/diversification. PEY is scheduled to release its full-year results on March 10, 2026. We raise our price target to $27 on the back of increased estimates and strong operational performance through 2025 and into 2026,” said Mr. Harvey.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski upgraded Sprott Inc. (SII-T) following “strong” fourth-quarter results that he thinks highlighted “the operating leverage inherent in the business to constructive commodity pricing compounded by net inflows and a product set that is hitting inflection points on growth and profitability,” which he expects will continue into 2026 and beyond.
Shares of the Toronto-based alternative asset manager surged 5.7 per cent on Thursday following the premarket release of its quarterly report, which included earnings per share of $1.11 that blew past both Mr. Dziarski’s 68-cent estimate and the consensus projection of 72 cents due to higher performance fees. Assets under management of US$59.6-billion was a jump of 89 per cent year-over-year “driven primarily by precious metals (i.e. gold, silver) price appreciation and strong net flows.”
“Our biggest takeaway from the quarter was the flywheel effect of products scaling within the business: i) every single fund in Sprott’s ETF line-up is now above its break- even AUM level implying high incremental margins we view as accretive to Sprott’s mid-80s EBITDA margins in Exchange Listed Products and ii) institutions wait for a certain size threshold before allocating to funds given concentration limits and Sprott is seeing more momentum in this regard (e.g. in its Uranium Trust which has reached $6-billion AUM),” he said.
“Potential upside to our carried interest estimates. Q4/25 carried interest of $38-million could give us a glimpse into the potential earnings power of this earnings stream as Sprott’s managed equities team and private lending strategies continue to outperform with constructive commodity markets. While management did not give any guidance on this number, we have increased our performance fees in 2026 and 2027 from $20-million/year to $40-million/year which is equivalent to what SII delivered in Q4/25.”
Moving Sprott to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, Mr. Dziarski raised his target to $218 from $186. The average is $174.75.
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $192 from $162 with an “outperform” rating.
“Rising net flows, stable fee rates, and expanding margins; constructive fundamentals across Sprott’s three key drivers of value remain intact. We highly value Sprott’s business model as a focused, scalable, and capital-lite alternative asset manager.
“Despite the stock nearly tripling over the past year, valuation remains consistent with historical averages and is well-supported by mid-single-digit net flow prospects. SII remains one of our best ideas for investors seeking diversification in turbulent markets.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $200 from $130 with a “buy” rating.
“Sprott reported Q4 results [Thursday] with a beat on all fronts, driven primarily by strong market appreciation across the entire precious metal portfolio. We note that the underlying material trends have largely continued into Q1 with AUM jumping from $59B to $70B quarter-to-date. While the rising price of gold has been a persistent trend, we note that the demand for silver has more recently become a significant tailwind with net inflows over the last six months three times larger than the entirety of F24. While Uranium has taken a breather, we remain constructive on the material going into F26 with a widening gap between demand and supply. Given the firm’s three-pronged AUM growth momentum, we have raised our forecasts for net inflows while our underlying material prices have increased based on the forecasts of the Canaccord Genuity Mining Team. The net result is a significant increase in our F26 and F27 AUM. We note that our forecasts do not contemplate performance fee revenues even though Q4’s EPS beat was partially driven by $23-million in net performance fees this quarter,” said Mr. Lee.
* TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding to $180 from $176 with a “hold” rating.
“Sprott beat our Q4/25 estimates and consensus on stronger than expected performance fees and margins. Strong AUM growth and flows have continued year-to-date given the elevated investor demand for precious metals/critical materials. Given the AUM growth we forecast healthy earnings growth in 2026,” said Mr. Ryding.
A pair of analysts on the Street downgraded shares of Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) in response to its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release on Thursday.
Citing reduced medium-term growth expectations, BMO’s John Gibson moved the stock to “market perform” from “outperform” and reduced his target by $1 to $8. The average target is $9.10.
“SPB reported in-line Q4/25 results, although its lowered medium-term growth expectations, combined with its reduced NCIB in 2026 causes us to downgrade the shares to Market Perform (Outperform prior),” said Mr. Gibson. “In tandem with our reduced estimates, we are also trimming our target price to $8.00 ($9.00 prior), which reflects approximately 6 times 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA.
“The company continues to transition its business. That said, we now believe the combination of lower growth and reduced share buybacks limits catalysts in the near-term.”
CIBC’s Robert Catellier moved the Toronto-based company to “neutral” from “outperformer” and dropped his target by $1 to $8.
“We view Superior’s Q4/25 results as a slight miss; however, revised guidance that includes a one-year delay in the Superior Delivers initiative causes us to reduce our outlook,” said Mr. Catellier.
“The timeline to realize the full benefits of this operational improvement plan has been extended by a year to 2028. While we believe in the merits of the plan (delivering more propane with a leaner cost structure), the delay in realizing full benefits introduces more risk. In Q4, management indicated an $11.2-million benefit to EBITDA, resulting in a $44-million run-rate benefit. The implementation of a new delivery methodology temporarily reduced capacity, resulting in modest volume gains compared to 15-per-cent colder weather year-over-year in the company’s U.S. markets.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil cut his target to $7 from $8.50 with a “buy” rating.
Following fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded his expectations, driven by beats from both its Retail and Financial Services segments, TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison sees several positive drivers stemming from Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.’s (CTC.A-T) “True North” transformation strategy, “notably the Retail gross margin strength and revenue growth at SportChek/Mark’s.”
“To be more excited, we require improved top-line performance at CTR its largest segment and SG&A Retail operating leverage,” he added.
On Thursday, the retailer’s shares slid 1.2 per cent despite reporting normalized earnings per share of $4.47 for the quarter, topping both Mr. Morrison’s $4.08 estimate and the Street’s forecast of $3.87.
“We are positive on True North drivers including loyalty/partnerships, new store formats, and DaiVID supporting growth at SportChek/Mark’s, and upward revision to its gross margin target (35-per-cent plus),” the analyst said. “Headwinds factored into our forecast include ongoing operating expense investments, higher dealer spring/summer inventory, and Q4/25 benefits from weather/Blue Jays.”
Maintaining his “hold” rating, Mr. Morrison increased his target to $205 from $194. The average is $191.50.
“The positive we take from the Q4/25 results was the Retail gross margin strength and outlook for it to be sustainable,” he said. “To garner further multiple expansion however, it is our view investors require True North to support heightened revenue growth at CTR (more than 70 per cent of ex-petroleum revenue), and the realization of sustainable SG&A leverage to support ‘higher quality’ EPS growth in a competitive Retail environment. Target increases to $205 on rolling forward our valuation to our 2027 EPS forecast.”
“We see attractive value in CTC at the current level over the midterm as it takes positive steps toward becoming a better retailer aligned with the required trends of the future. That said, we require improved visibility upon its ability to drive sustainable top-line growth within CTR (in its 3-5-per-cent range), and operating leverage as a result of its True North strategy/investment. The latter we feel remains more likely weighted toward the back half of our investment horizon, that we believe limits its ability to significantly outperform consensus in the near term. This in turn should likely be a headwind to multiple expansion. We continue to see more compelling alternatives in our coverage at this time.”
Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s John Zamparo upgraded Canadian Tire to “sector perform” from “sector underperform” with a $180 target, up from $160.
“Our upgrade of CTC.A to Sector Perform is a product of both our more favorable view of Canadian consumer health, as well as accelerating top-line growth,” said Mr. Zamparo. “We’ve increased our 2026 and 2027 estimated EPS by 5 per cent & 4 per cent, now projecting a 4-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through 27. The stock’s not without its risks: SSS comparisons get more difficult in 26, Q4’s organic growth was lower than the headline number (the extra week contributed much more than we expected), SG&A growth remains elevated, and the multiple is above longer term averages. That said, Qs 1 and 2 could have tailwinds behind them in the form of favorable weather, fanwear (Olympics + World Cup) and perhaps a lower headwind from lapping Buy Canada than previously thought.”
Analysts making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $203 from $190 with a “buy” rating.
“Setting aside transitory factors such as favourable weather and an extra week, we believe results reflect solid execution and early benefits of True North, including continued Retail gross margin strength and modest operating leverage. Improving revenue visibility is a key catalyst given tougher comps this year. Over time, True North should drive share gains in a highly fragmented market and is key to achieving CTC’s long-term 3–5-per-cent revenue target. We believe patient investors should be rewarded,” said Mr. Li.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $211 from $201 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Given uneven operating performance and ongoing disruption related to the implementation of the True North strategy, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $194 from $180 with a “market perform” rating.
“With the retail business trading at an implied 5.0 times EBITDA (i.e., midpoint of historical range), we see a balanced risk-reward on the shares,” he said.
TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof is now “confident” Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) can achieve synergies from its $8.6-billion acquisition of MEG Energy Corp. last year.
“Management outlined plans to delineate the former boundary lands across CL [the Christina Lake oil-sands area] to optimize operations. In our view, this likely ultimately drives synergies more than $400-million,” he explained in a report following Thursday’s release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results, which propelled its shares higher by 4.4 per cent.
“In addition to the accelerated Q4 tax benefit of $189-million, management noted that $120-million of its $150-million near-term synergies target was realized within six weeks, post-close. CVE’s focus now shifts to field-level and operating synergies, primarily driven by reservoir delineation and seismic programs, drilling of 42 redevelopment wells with production uplift expected in 2026/2027, application of CVE SAGD [steam-assisted gravity drainage] best practices and facility debottlenecking (3 projects underway).”
Before the bell on Thursday, Cenovus reported quarterly upstream production of 917,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the 914,000 boe/d estimate of both the analyst and Street. Funds from operations per unit of $1.27 also topped expectations ($1.19 and $1.20, respectively).
Mr. Hulsof said the Calgary-based company displayed impressive U.S. downstream market capture while also emphasizing its “Asia-Pac resource tail [is] extending; gas contracts successfully renegotiated.”
“Strong Q4 U.S. downstream market capture driven by asset reliability and capitalizing on temporary regional supply disruptions: Commercial optimization was supported by synergies between Lima/Toledo and increased dock access to enhance market reach,” he added. “CVE also leveraged its gasoline/diesel flex and broad product slate to exploit crack spread seasonality to direct products into the most valuable markets.
“We remain constructive on the H1/26 U.S. downstream setup given limited TAR activity and hope to see 70-per-cent-plus market capture on a more sustained basis while acknowledging seasonality.”
Also seeing it “leveraging transportation/export contracts to mitigate WCS exposure,” Mr. Hulshof hiked his target for Cenovus shares to $35 from $28, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $29.35.
“Q4 results represented a much-needed strong print, and the stage remains set for a potential step-change in performance through 2028, including positive FCF inflection,” he said. “FC [Foster Creek] optimization was completed several months ahead of schedule while West White Rose is still tracking to first oil in Q2 (although ‘tight’ per management). We see positive inflection driving a discounted valuation in 2027+. We are increasing our PT to $35/sh on an increase to our target EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] multiple to 7.5 times, which yields a 13.4-per-cent total return. While a bit light for a BUY-rated stock, we highlight: 1) significant oil price volatility, 2) our new PT being underpinned by US$62/bbl WTI (for now, appears conservative), 3) our new target multiple representing the low end of the peer range (7.5-9.0 times), 4) rising Street confidence in management and its ability to execute, and 5) potential further positive inflection as Street 2028 estimates start to get rolled out. We plan to revisit our commodity price deck and estimates in late March.”
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk to $34 from $30 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“CVE’s CFPS beat the Street by 22 per cent, due to strong upstream netbacks, a current tax recovery, and a one-time payment from a pipeline dispute. Roughly 55 per cent of the beat was due to the tax recovery and pipeline settlement. Production was in line while downstream throughput and margin capture were stronger than expected,” said Mr. Fisk.
* BMO’s Randy Ollenberger to $35 from $28 with an “outperform” rating.
" Cenovus posted solid results, ending the year on a positive note. Downstream strength was underpinned by reliability gains, with utilization above 95 per cent over the past two quarters. The next leg of improvements could stem from reducing U.S. downstream operating costs, which remain elevated versus peers. Upstream growth is well under way, supported by progressive oil sands growth and first oil at West White Rose in Q2/26. Notably, near-term synergy upside could emerge from redevelopment well performance," he said.
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $33 from $30 with a “strong buy” recommendation.
“We’re reiterating our Strong Buy rating following another solid quarter and plenty of positive operational momentum into 2026. The entire energy space has performed well, but CVE has lagged the group since we upgraded to Strong Buy in early-October (CVE is up 28 per cent vs peer group at up 34 per cent). In fact, on our price deck (US$60/bblWTI in FY26, andUS$65/bblWTI long term), CVE is the only large capnot trading through our target. We continue to believe that risk/reward is attractive here: commodity prices are currently sitting above our deck; momentum in U.S. refining continues, and we believe margin capture could surprise to the upside; MEG integration is going well, and we expect additional synergies as they reconfigure the development plan; and, we expect new growth opportunities to get unveiled at an Investor Day anticipated for late-2026/early-2027, including potential solvent applications and growth at Sunrise," said Mr. Barth.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch to $36 from $33 with a “buy” rating.
“We are increasing our target on Cenovus ... reflecting positive estimate revisions and multiple expansion following [Thursday’s] release of robust 4Q25 financial results, which capped off a transformative year for the company. Going forward, we see clear visibility toward operational catalysts, particularly with respect to growth projects and synergy realizations, which should support achievement of the interim $6.0-billion net debt target later this year. We continue highlighting the stock as a top pick,” said Mr. MacCulloch.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy to $32 from $31 with an “outperform” rating.
“What stood out most to us on the company’s conference call was its gravitation away from major projects towards capital efficient debottlenecking/brownfield expansions supporting upstream growth of 3-5 per cent per annum, anchored by overall capital programs of $5 billion or less (including turnarounds),” said Mr. Pardy. “These projects are aimed at supporting acceptable returns in a US$45 WTI world.”
“Our constructive stance towards Cenovus reflects its capable leadership team, shareholder alignment, free cash flow generation and enhanced portfolio via the MEG Energy acquisition/WRB disposition.”
National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack says he’s “looking past the earnings minutiae at a positive broader picture” for RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (REI.UN-T) following an in-line quarterly report.
On Tuesday, the Toronto-based REIT, which owns, manages and develops retail-focused, mixed-use properties, reported funds from operations per unit, excluding termination income, of 39 cents, down 2 cents year-over-year and meeting the analyst’s expectation. Net operating income grew 0.5 per cent, topping forecasts largely due to higher-than-anticipated disposition activity.
“It took a while to sift through the weeds on changes to the REIT’s earnings methodology (nail-biter hockey and curling matches didn’t help in the matter), in the end the variances were relatively minor and represent a temporary distraction relative to the positive outlook on ops and long-term above inflationary growth prospects for REI’s core portfolio,” said Mr. Kornack. “On the latter, spreads remained at peer leading and exceptional levels with an expectation for a long-term tailwind on strong MTM potential across the portfolio (an 8-year WALT means this will take time to capture, but will provide for consistent performance).
“Elsewhere, balance sheet improvements through ongoing capital recycling combined with lower interest rates / spreads will mute the near-term earnings headwind from maturing debt with COVID-era interest rates.”
Emphasizing RioCan’s “core fundamental performance remained exceptionally strong ... with spreads remaining at recent highs while occupancy remained essentially full,” Mr. Kornack adjusted his forecast to better align approach wise with management’s new core methodology.
“The differences were fairly modest and in terms of quarterly results NOI tracked us closely (even more so when taking into account disposition activity in excess of what we were modeling),” he explained. “The net result was a slight reduction to the top-end of management’s guidance range on FFO but largely stable NAV (as this is primarily driven by NOI from the IPP [income producing properties] portfolio). We took our target slightly higher to maintain a 5-per-cent premium to our NAV.”
Maintaining an “outperform” rating for RioCan units, Mr. Kornack raised his target to a Street high of $22.75 from $22.50. The average is $21.
Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch attributes the recent significant appreciation in the price of Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) shares to “a short squeeze on the back of capital rotation into the sector.”
“The market shrugged off weather-related hiccups at Kearl as the stock continued its meteoric ascent to record highs as the best-performing name in the Desjardins E&P coverage universe this year.
Despite those gains, which have led to a 40.9-per-cent jump thus far in 2026, the analyst says he continues to “see more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the integrated space.”
In a report released before the bell titled The truck got stuck (but the stock went up), Mr. MacCulloch explained:
“Following several years of smooth sailing, IMO faced choppier conditions in 4Q25, suffering its first operational headwinds at Kearl since a deep freeze in early 2022. This time, rainfall was the primary culprit, dumping the equivalent of nearly a full season of precipitation on the mine site in October. These conditions turned the mine into a mud-soaked quagmire, bringing shovel and haul truck activity to a crawl for what had been one of the most reliable performing mining assets in the Canadian oil sands. That said, we view the quarterly miss at Kearl as a speedbump for the company, with management already identifying opportunities to adjust operating strategy to mitigate future rain impact, building on its previous success implementing an enhanced winterization strategy following the 2022 deep freeze.
“At this point, we believe it will require a larger operational misstep to rattle investor confidence within the context of a short squeeze that has propelled IMO to fresh heights on a near-daily basis. By extension, valuation metrics have stretched beyond most of the company’s global integrated peers on most metrics, with strip FCF yields compressing toward the 5.0-per-cent level. From a return-of-capital perspective, while we applaud the punchy 20-per-cent dividend increase announced with the quarter, we see limited scope for an SIB without leaning into the balance sheet.”
He reaffirmed a “sell” rating for Imperial shares given the negative potential return to his revised $132 target, rising from $120. The average is $118.25.
In other analyst actions:
* CIBC’s Cosmus Chiu downgraded Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO-N, ELD-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a US$54 target. The average is US$49.09.
“With Q4 production pre-released, Eldorado Gold reported adjusted earnings of $0.63/sh, ahead of our estimate and consensus of $0.57/sh, due to favourable variances in income tax expense. However, this earnings beat will likely be overshadowed by the release of a three-year outlook that was below expectations, with first concentrate production at Skouries delayed by approximately one quarter to early Q3/26, and commercial production now expected in Q4/26. This is not the first delay at Skouries, and highlights the risks of start-ups, which is now further compounded by the proposed acquisition of Foran Mining, announced on February 2. The proposed acquisition of Foran Mining, expected to close in Q2/26, brings with it a second start-up with a similar timeline to Skouries. Shares of Eldorado Gold have actually held up well since the acquisition announcement, up 12 per cent during this period, despite the transaction proposed as an almost all-share transaction (with only a small $0.01/sh cash component). With an implied return of only 13 per cent to our price target of US$54, we downgrade shares,” said Mr. Chiu.
* After reducing his forecast to reflect higher life-of-mine operating costs and capex for its Kamoa-Kakula mine, Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto downgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) to “hold” from “buy” and reduced his target to $15 from $18. The average is $20.
“[Wednesday] night IVN released its full Q4/25 financial and operating results,” he said. “Production results were previously disclosed, along with 2026 and 2027 production guidance, but we note that last night’s release included cost and capex guidance for 2026 and 2027. A full updated mine plan for Kamoa-Kakula is expected in March, reflecting changes required following the major seismic activity at Kakula in May 2025 (from which the operation is still recovering).
“Given that production and 2026/2027 guidance was previously disclosed, we do not see the full Q4/25 financial results as overly meaningful to the investment thesis (particularly ahead of the updated Kamoa-Kakula mine plan). That said, we view the elevated costs and capex at Kamoa-Kakula as a harbinger of things to come - we believe the new mine plan will present lower grades, higher mining and ore transportation costs, and potentially a reserve cut as larger pillars are left behind for support (perhaps reclaimed at the end of the Kakula mine life). In addition, we believe the full Phase 4 expansion could be delayed, with a tailings re-processing stage ahead of it. While Kipushi is now running well, IVN is in the process of a staged handover to partner Gecamines over the coming years, with IVN owning just 20 per cent of the asset post the current mine life. Platreef is expected to be a significant consumer of cash over 2026 and 2027, before becoming self-funding in 2028.”
* BMO’s Raj Ray initiated coverage of Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NEO-T) with an “outperform” rating and $30 target, exceeding the $26.50 average.
“We believe rare earth magnets are the key bottleneck in the rare earth supply chain and think Neo is attractively positioned as a leader in the space,” said Mr. Ray. “With 30+ years of magnet production experience, and well-established supply and customer relationships, we believe Neo is differentiated versus other aspiring magnet producers. Additionally, we believe Neo trades at a significant discount to peers, and our valuation is based on 13 times modeled 2027 EBITDA.”
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 6, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Chris Murray raised his Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) target to $35 from $32 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $34.75.
“We are updating ATB estimates to reflect the expected near-term impact from challenged civil projects combined with the expected margin impact associated with ARE’s evolving project mix. While shares have benefited from enthusiasm surrounding nuclear and a rotation away from AI-linked sectors, valuations have moved notably above typical levels, creating a less favourable setup heading into earnings, particularly with legacy/civil project risk extending into H1/26,” said Mr. Murray.
* Mr. Murray also raised his Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) target to $35 from $31 with an “outperform” rating prior to its quarterly release on March 11. The average is $36.
“We are revising our Q4/25 estimates upward to reflect the revenue/project mix, given the recent acquisition of Fraser River Pile & Dredge (FRPD) and the delayed industrial projects. While the delayed capital projects are expected to remain a headwind in H1/26, the $10.0-billion total backlog, strong booking trends, and margin accretive revenue from FRPD give us confidence that growth should reaccelerate in H2/26,” he said.
* Mr. Murray bumped his WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T) target to $335, above the $332.25 average, from $330 with an “outperform” rating in a preview of its Feb. 25 quarterly release.
“We have lowered our revenue outlook for the quarter to account for the timing of the acquisition, seasonality, and FX rates, with ATB estimates remaining in line with full-year guidance. We remain constructive on WSP’s outlook entering 2026 and see the recent weakness in the shares, driven by fears surrounding potential AI-based disruption, as a buying opportunity,” he said.
* Following a “noisy fourth-quarter as the software transition takes hold,” RBC’s Paul Treiber cut his Altus Group Ltd. (AIF-T) target to $50 from $56 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Gavin Fairweather to $54 from $65 with an “outperform” rating and BMO’s Stephen MacLeod to $48 from $61 with a “market perform” rating. The average on the Street is $60.
“Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA slightly exceeded consensus, after adjusting for the Appraisals divestiture,” said Mr. Treiber. “Software ARR growth was solid (11 per cent year-over-year). However, FY26 guidance, which assumes no rebound in market conditions, fell short of consensus. In light of the shares trading at multiyear lows, Altus has increased its capital return program from $500-million to $800-million, which is likely to help support the stock.”
* National Bank Financial’s Giuliano Thornhill raised his target for units of Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (CHP.UN-T) to $16 from $15.50, maintaining a “sector perform” rating, despite a narrow fourth-quarter miss, calling it “steady by design.” Other changes include: Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to $16.50 from $16 with a “sector outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $16.50 from $16.25 with a “market perform” rating. The average on the Street is $17.51.
“Overall, results were slightly shy on retail NOI due to lower occupancy (down 10 basis points) than anticipated and higher G&A on year-end timing,” said Mr. Thornhill. “CHP introduced 2026 guidance of 2–3-per-cent same-asset NOI growth and FFO/u of $1.08–$1.10, reinforcing the stability of returns algorithm at 8-9 per cent. Incorporating this outlook, we revise our retail occupancy assumption to up 30 basis points in 2026, reaching 98.3 per cent, on similar renewal spreads to 2025 levels. Absent a material shift in interest rates and spreads, we view units priced accordingly for the stability offered to investors."
* National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé moved his target for Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) to $26 from $25 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.50.
“We are updating our model following Equinox Gold’s preliminary Q4/25 financial results released on February 19, and to reflect updated commentary around Greenstone and Valentine ramp-up, capital allocation priorities, and the strengthened balance sheet,” said Mr. Sidibé. “We have revised our model to incorporate the financial results, inaugural dividend and NCIB. As noted on the call, we expect EQX to be conservative on its buybacks and only model an implementation of 50 per cent of the program announced. We have also fine-tuned our throughput and grade assumptions at Greenstone to reflect commentary provided on the call, as well as cost and strip ratio assumptions in Nicaragua to better align with the outlook. While our Valentine gold production profile remains unchanged, we are modelling a slightly more pronounced H1/H2 split to reflect the expected ramp up. We model production of 791 koz (including 1 month of Brazil) at AISC [all-in sustaining costs] of $1,911/oz (including 1 month of Brazil).”
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen hiked his Firan Technology Group Corp. (FTG-T) target to $20, exceeding the $17.25 average, from $17.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Firan Technology Group (FTG) ... and reiterating our Outperform rating based upon the company’s: 1) accelerating Aerospace & Defense tailwinds; 2) new defence program wins; 3) record backlog; 4) attractive growth pipeline; 5) pristine balance sheet (0.2x); & 6) increasing bizdev. (M&A) optionality,” said Mr. Hansen.
* Beacon Securities’ Bereket Berhe hiked his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) target to $18, exceeding the $14.80 average on the Street, from $12, reaffirming a “buy” rating.
“We had a chance to catch up with Montage Gold at the Indaba Mining Conference,” he explained. “Additionally, MAU previously provided an update on its Koné project in Côte d’Ivoire, announcing that it is expecting first gold pour from the oxide circuit to be brought forward. MAU highlighted that given the advancements in site construction, the company now expects this first gold pour to take place in late Q4/26. The hard-rock comminution circuit remains on schedule for completion in Q2/27. Given the potential for earlier cashflow than we were modeling, we have updated our model and have raised our target price.”
* In a note reviewing its largely in-line fourth-quarter results titled Some Green Shoots Emerging, RBC’s Ryland Conrad increased his target for MTY Food Group Inc. (MTY-T) to $48 from $45, which is the current average on the Street, with a “sector perform” rating. Others making changes include: Scotia’s John Zamparo to $46 from $41 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $46 from $44 with a “market perform” rating, National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $49 from $43 with an “outperform” rating and TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $45 from $37 with a “hold” recommendation,
“While the outcome of the recently announced strategic review could be a catalyst for the shares, there remains considerable uncertainty with respect to scope, probability, timing and valuation of any potential transaction(s),” Mr. Conrad said. “As such, our focus remains on the organic growth trajectory, and although we believe the company is working through recent challenges and making progress strengthening its network, we expect sustained macro and competitive headwinds to limit any meaningful improvement in the near-term. We continue to see value in the shares at 6.8 times FTM [forward 12-month] EV/EBITDA and the 2026E FCF yield of 12 per cent provides some downside protection from current levels, but we remain on the sidelines pending greater visibility.”
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme bumped his Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) target to US$81 from US$80 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Joel Jackson to US$85 from US$75 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to US$74 from US$68 with a “market perform” rating. The average is US$70.08.
“Q4 EBITDA was 2 per cent below consensus. 2026 Potash/Nitrogen volume guidance midpoints were broadly in line with consensus (after normalizing Nitrogen for Trinidad/New Madrid shutdowns), while Retail’s 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint was a bit soft vs. consensus,” said Mr. Tupholme. “Overall, we continue to like NTR’s medium to long-term Retail EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume growth prospects and see the stock’s valuation as reasonable.”
* RBC’s Robb Mann bumped his Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE-T) target to $10, exceeding the $9.50 average, from $9, keeping a “sector perform” rating, while BMO’s Jeremy McCrea moved his target to $12 from $10 with an “outperform” rating.
“Obsidian’s fourth-quarter 2025 results closed the books on a busy year for the company as it now looks ahead to its Willesden Green and Peace River development plans in 2026, including the progression of waterflood initiatives in the Dawson/Nampa areas,” said Mr. Mann. “The company has positioned its drilling program this year to maximize its exit rate production, reflective of its view of a more constructive commodity price environment in the second-half of the year and into 2027.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams increased his target for OceanaGold Corp. (OGC-T) to $65 from $63 with a “buy” rating. The average is $59.34.
* Raymond James’ Daniel Magder reduced his Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. (PIF-T) target to $18.25 from $20, which is the average, with an “outperform” rating.
“We maintain our view of Polaris Renewable Energy as an attractive small-cap idea in our coverage universe based on a combination of their healthy balance sheet, discounted valuation, strong returns on capital projects/M&A, and an attractive niche in Latin America. We are reducing our target price ... due to model assumption updates and potential near-term headwinds,” said Mr. Magder.
* Seeing it “transitioned to [a] multi-asset producer,” National Bank’s Shane Nagle trimmed his Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T) target to $12.75 from $13.50 with an “outperform” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto raised his target to $13.50 from $12.75 with a “buy” rating. The average is $11.25.
“Our Outperform rating is based on transformational growth outlook from completion of the Florence development project, lower unit operating costs in 2026 at Gibraltar given higher grades, and surfacing value from development assets within the portfolio. We have made some adjustments to near-term operating assumptions and adopted more conservative target multiple owing to current volatility in copper prices impacting our target,” said Mr. Nagle.
* Barclays’ Theresa Chen raised his TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) target to $88 from $80 with an “overweight” rating. The average is $90.47.
* Following better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results and seeing its balance sheet remaining “well positioned,” Mr. Nagle raised his target for shares of Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) to $85 from $80, reaffirming a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto to $80 from $72.50 with a “hold” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams to $84 from $74 with a “hold” rating and Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $78 from $77 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $74.98.
“We updated our model to incorporate Q4 financial results and updated capital cost guidance. Our target has increased given lower operating/capital cost assumptions for 2026 as well as increased NAV multiple to reflect increased confidence in operational turnaround at QB. Our S/P rating stems from lower operational leverage as the market awaits completion of the merger with Anglo American. We have lowered our 2026 operating/capital costs in light of more clarity on QB operational improvements throughout the year, resulting in a modest increase to our target price,” said Mr. Nagle.
* National Bank’s Dan Payne bumped his target for Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) to $8 from $6.50, keeping a “sector perform” rating, following in-line fourth-quarter results. The average is $7.26.
“Looking ahead through the outlook, management remains optimistic in a market that should firm-up in H2/26, with continued trends towards higher intensity (previously referenced growth in sand pumped per annum in a flat frac environment) in support of structural long-term trends (LNG vs. minor customer/macro risks), and towards which it will be deploying new capacity ($122-million budget with 50-per-cent allocated to growth, including 8th high-graded spread to be deployed in Q3/Q4; uncontracted) in support of earnings momentum (normalized EBITDA growth of $20-million per spread, or 5-10-per-cent growth),” said Mr. Payne. That orientation, and its intact capital allocation priorities, should provide continued tailwinds to value.
“Its pure-play opportunity in Canada is strong, with high-quality & diverse assets that should see it maintain high-utilization, pricing & margins through a market that continues to experience structural change, where the value opportunity should be magnified by tactical reinvestment & growth.”
* Raymond James’ Daryl Swetlishoff raised his Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T) target to $13.50 from $12 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $15.67.
“Our Market Perform rating on Western Forest Products (WEF) reflects ongoing uncertainty surrounding its FCF-challenged BC coastal lumber business. We highlight, however, that the company continues to demonstrate visible progress in shoring up liquidity, announcing the sale of a 100-per-cent ownership interest in the assets comprising Western’s Stillwater Forest Operation, located on the BC mainland near Powell River, for an aggregate purchase price of $80.0-million (estimated $60-million net proceeds). This transaction brings Western to a pro forma net cash position of $26-million. We also note that pending real estate sales related to the fire-destroyed Columbia Vista mill, along with associated insurance proceeds could provide incremental cash inflows in 2026. The sale of Stillwater follows several additional steps WEF has previously taken to weather softwood lumber tariffs, restrictive B.C. Government forest policy, and challenged fibre availability. Specifically, the company previously suspended its dividend and completed the sale of several public and private non-core assets – underscoring asset value not reflected in the current share price. We expect this transaction represents another positive step forward, further solidifying First Nations partnerships in a manner that aligns well with B.C. Government priorities. While only 30 per cent of WEF’s total shipments cross the U.S. border, we note the high relative and absolute tariff exposure associated with the company’s higher-value lumber mix remains a key headwind to a sustained return to FCF-positive territory. Nonetheless, with another accretive asset sale completed, we are comfortable raising our target,” said Mr. Swetlishoff.