Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
With its new debt falling below $16-billion exiting 2026, TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof emphasizes Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T) now sits “on the 75-per-cent return of free cash flow bubble” as laid out by the Calgary-based company.
“When asked about the impact of the $765-million Peace River acquisition [from Tourmaline Oil Corp.] and whether that meant 75-per-cet returns were already in play today, management indicated that it expected ‘slightly higher and slightly lower” ND over Q1/Q2 - we suspect it could get to 75 per cent sooner than later given the very material rally in spot oil prices," he said in a client report.
CNRL shares closed up 2.9 per cent on Thursday after it reported 1.659 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter, falling in-line with the estimates of Mr. Hulshof (1.645 million boe/d) and the Street (1.651 million boe/d). Adjusted fully diluted funds flow per share of $1.79 topped expectations ($1.66 and $1.67, respectively).
“Management indicated that liquids-rich natural gas areas are currently capable of generating payout periods comparable to multilateral oil (12–13 months or less), and described its balanced 21-rig program across the WCSB, with the intention of avoiding ‘self-inflicted’ cost inflation while prioritizing value returns,” he noted.
“On heavy oil, management indicated that while WCS heavy diffs initially widened amid fears of VZ barrels flooding the USGC, they’ve tightened by $1.50-$1.60 per barrel since war broke out last Saturday. It stressed its competitiveness through a cost structure focus and diversified heavy-oil marketing footprint of 256 mbbl/d [thousand barrels per day] split between the USGC and Canada’s West Coast. Looking to nat gas, management said the AECO market “appears full,” citing LNG Canada processing 1.5 Bcf (‘not that far away from full capacity’) alongside strong
liquids-rich gas production. It suggested tight conditions already exist and reiterated the need for additional LNG export capacity and associated infrastructure."
Maintaining his “buy” rating for CNRL shares, Mr. Hulshof hiked his target to $64 from $51. The average is $49.85.
“CNQ boasts one of the most sustainable business models in our coverage, and we recommend it as a core energy holding,” he said. “Significant capital flexibility given best-in-class portfolio diversity and infrastructure dominance are key tenets of our investment thesis, where infrastructure dominance drives a material cost structure advantage, and an abundance of highly economic, half-cycle, drill-to-fill opportunities. We see significant momentum on high-margin SCO production following closing of the cashless SHEL asset swap and potential upside to AOSP/Horizon synergies guidance of $30-40-million/annum. Given the update to its RoC framework, a return to 75 per cent of FCF from 60 per cent when ND hits $13-16-billion appears imminent.
“Our target price increases to $64/sh on revised estimates and a higher EV/DACF multiple. While our modeled return is below the 15-per-cent threshold for a BUY rated stock, our commodity price assumptions generally sit below the current forward strip. We intend to revisit our price deck in the coming weeks.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk to $62 from $58 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Strong performance from CNQ’s mining and upgrading assets drove a 7-per-cent CFPS and 1-per-cent production beat. The company also enhanced its shareholder returns by increasing its dividend by 6.4 per cent and raising its net debt targets, which allows for more free cash flow to be used for buybacks. CNQ’s 2026 guidance was updated for the acquisition of TOU’s Peace River assets and reduced capital spending. We have increased our target price to $62 to reflect CNQ’s solid operational performance and enhanced shareholder return profile,” said Mr. Fisk.
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $55 from $53 with an “outperform” rating.
“While we acknowledge that CNQ is likely to be light on catalysts for the next couple of years and is going through a multi-year debt repayment journey (which lowers buyback cadence relative to most peers), it also has one of the longest 2P RLIs in the country, one of the lowest sustaining free cash flow breakevens, and we still view the stock as offering attractive value at these levels,” said Mr. Barth.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy to $65 from $61 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our bullish stance towards Canadian Natural Resources reflects its top-drawer leadership team, shareholder alignment, best-in-class operating performance, abundant shareholder returns and free cash flow generation throughout the cycle. ... CNQ remains our favorite senior producer in Canada and is on our Global Energy Best Ideas List,” said Mr. Pardy.
* National Bank’s Travis Wood to $59 from $54 with a “sector perform” rating.
“CNQ posted a solid quarter driven by strong execution and improving cost efficiencies. Management has (rightfully, in our view) loosened the return of capital framework while revising 2026 guidance (more details within the report), and we believe this is structurally positive given the leverage profile (2026 estimated D/CF of 1.0 times) and cash flow generation outlook,” said Mr. Wood.
* BMO’s Randy Ollenberger to $70 from $50 with an “outperform” rating.
“CNQ delivered another strong quarter, highlighted by record production and positive guidance revisions. Stronger operating performance and disciplined execution supported a revision to the company’s FCF allocation framework, with CNQ now returning 75 per cent of FCF to shareholders. Following a sharp repricing in crude oil, the shares have outperformed peers, benefitting from the lack of downstream exposure and premium SCO production, which mitigates the impact of potential widening in Canadian heavy differentials.”
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $65 from $56 with an “outperform” rating.
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Harvey says he continues to be a “fan” of the long-term potential of Tourmaline Oil Corp.’s (TOU-T) asset base, but he thinks it’s important for investors to be “mindful of near term weak gas prices and [their] impact to free cash flow generation.”
“TOU reported an in-line quarter, with the Peace River High asset sale [to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.] completed ($765-million) as expected,” he added. “Low gas prices are impacting the business - guidance was reduced on several factors including the sale, lower activity levels and termination of an Ethane supply agreement.”
On Thursday, shares of the Calgary-based company dropped 6.4 despite reported fourth-quarter 2025 volumes of 659,204 barrels of oil equivalent per day and cash flow per shares of $2.29. Both exceeded Mr. Harvey’s estimates (657,817 boe/d and $2.22) while falling in-line with the Street’s expectations (659,250 boe/d and $2.22). Capital spending of $828-million was narrowly higher than he anticipated ($800-million).
“Guide for 2026 was revised downward, with the capital budget reduced to $2.550-billion as $350-million of E&P and $50-million of non-E&P capital was stripped out,” he noted. “PRH account for $175-million, while expenditure for gas complexes accounted for an additional $175-million. Guidance volumes shift downward to 630,000 boe/d from 690,000 boe/ d reflective of the PRH sale and the termination of an Ethane supply agreement in the Deep Basin. The 5-year plan has also been updated and features longer term capex and production down 5-7 per cent.”
“Details regarding the PRH sale were announced, with the asset divested for a sum of $765-million; we believe this sale price is largely in line with current market expectations. The region accounted for volumes of 25,000 boe/d, with the majority of proceeds to be utilized for debt repayment and ongoing NEBC project build out.”
After reducing his 2026 and 2027 production and cash flow projections to reflect Tourmaline’s new guidance, Mr. Harvey cut his target for its shares by $4 to $72, keeping an “outperform” rating, noting “the high likelihood for weak regional gas prices in the near term.” The average on the Street is $69.22.
“We rate Tourmaline shares Outperform due to its high-quality assets, strong management, and flexible balance sheet,” he added.
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke reduced his target to $73 from $74 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the event as modestly negative, and are taking our price target to $73.00/sh (from $74.00) following the disposition, reflecting a modest reduction in 2027-2028 FCF in our model on a gassier production mix (3-4 per cent) following the Peace River Charlie Lake asset sale, as the company redirects a portion of the proceeds toward its NEBC complex buildout,” he said.
Citing its “top tier FFO growth, healthy yield, attractive valuation,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan upgraded Automotive Properties REIT (APR.UN-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” following better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter 2025 results.
“APR delivered its highest FFO/unit growth since IPO of 7 per cent, driven by active acquisitions ($195-million). “While APR remains disciplined, we expect acquisition momentum to continue given wider scope and U.S. expansion and expect 4 per cent/5 per cent FFO/unit growth in 26/27, at top end of retail peers. With P/FFO [price to funds from operations] of 11 times (0.7 times wider than historical spread to peers), healthy 7-per-cent distribution yield, longest lease term (9 years) among peers and positive sentiment to essential retail in a de-risking environment, we see solid risk-adjusted total return in the high-teens.”
After the bell on Wednesday, the Toronto-based REIT, which now possesses a portfolio of 92 income-producing commercial properties, reported funds from operations per unit of 25.9 cents, up 9.6 per cent year-over-year and ahead of both Mr. Shan’s 24.6-cent estimate and the Street’s 25.4-cent projection, driven by higher net operating income and lower expenses. Same-property NOI rose 1.9 per cent due to contractual rent growth.
“Ended 2025 with 2nd most active acquisition year since IPO: 1) In Q4, APR closed on four dealerships in Dorval and in Île-Perrot for a total of $57-million; 2) post Q4, APR closed on a Hyundai dealership in Québec City for $13.3-million ($339 PSF) on 6 acres of land, will acquire an automotive and service property in Vista, San Diego County for US$16-million, US$267PSF on 3.75 acres of land,” he added. “APR can still acquire in the 6.5-per-cent to low 7-per-cent cap rate, earning 200-275 bps over cost of debt. While APR has proven to be disciplined in the last few years and likely will continue to be, we see the momentum continuing given wider scope and U.S. expansion.”
Mr. Shan raised his target for Automotive Properties’ units to $13 from $12.50. The average is $13.50.
Elsewhere, others making target changes:
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $13 from $12.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“APR successfully expanded into 2 new avenues of growth through recently executed acquisition activity, including: 1) Canadian infrastructure heavy equipment dealership properties; and 2) U.S. automotive dealership assets. Supported by its long-term contractual cash flows, APR’s underlying commercial real estate value can be further supported by APR’s prime urban location focus within its land constrained Canadian VECTOM markets that may allow APR to strategically pursue higher and better use land intensification development opportunities over the long-term,” said Mr. Sturges.
* BMO’s Tom Callaghan to $12.50 from $12 with a “market perform” rating.
“2025 marked a notable acceleration in acquisition activity for the REIT, including APR’s entry into the U.S. market and the heavy equipment vertical,” said Mr. Callaghan. “Early momentum points to potential for another active year in 2026, while valuation (11.0 times FFO) screens as undemanding in the context of the trailing five-year average multiple of 11.7 times.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $13.50 from $13 with a “buy” rating.
In a client report reviewing its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results titled A Story That Gets Better With Age, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman predicts Savaria Corp.’s (SIS-T) momentum will “spill over into 2026 as Europe has turned a corner under new leadership and the rollout of Savaria One Part Two in April 2026 will focus on acceleration of top-line growth.”
“We think it’s reasonable to assume the company will already have some wins under its belt by the time it unveils the plan as it is already actioning elements of its growth plan,” he added.
Shares of the Laval, Que.-based accessibility solutions provider closed 1.1 per cent lower on Thursday, giving back earlier gains, after it reported quarterly revenue growth of 8.3 per cent, falling back within its long-term target of 8-10 per cent, leading to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $51.3-million. That exceeded the Street’s expectation of $48.9-million, which Mr. Goldman noted had already been revised higher several times over the past year.
“SIS grew EBITDA/share at a 15-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] over the past two years – with limited organic growth (2.7-per-cent CAGR), no contribution from M&A (given divestiture of Europe Adapted Vehicles business), and no operating leverage,” he said. “Earnings growth has been driven by structural margin expansion on the back of Savaria One initiatives. Margin expansion has more legs as the company is annualizing profitability improvements implemented in 2025, and it plans to implement 100 new initiatives in 2026.
“We’re not sure why there was so much confusion on the [post-earnings conference] call because the company discloses organic growth excluding FX, which was up 5.2 per cent in 4Q, including: 5.8 per cent in North America Accessibility, 1.7 per cent in Europe Accessibility, and 10.2 per cent in Patient Care.”
The analyst now thinks M&A activity is likely to “figure prominently in the growth plane,” noting management said it can “easily invest $200 million [in M&A] over the next few years.” He thinks those gains ould fund primarily with free cash flow ”assuming a 6-times acquisition multiple, that implies 20-per-cent EBITDA growth.
“We will roll forward at the IR Day in April, but expect the current trend to continue/accelerate through at least the medium-term, which implies upside to our target price,” Mr. Goldman added. “SIS remains one of our top picks in 2026.”
Reaffirming his “sector outperform” rating for Savaria shares, he bumped his target to $30 from $29. The average target on the Street is $30.50.
“SIS shares trade at 10.3 times EV/EBITDA on our 2026 estimates, compared to the company’s 10-year average of 11.7 times,” said Mr. Goldman. “We think that’s inexpensive for a defensive business, benefitting from secular tailwinds, with little risk of AI disruption, and accelerating earnings growth. The B/S is in the best shape at 1 times since the transformative acquisition of Handicare 2021. FCF should ramp in 2026 as consultant fees have fully rolled off. The company has sufficient capacity to achieve the growth plan per management; capex is expected within the 2.5-3-per-cent range in 2026 vs. normal run-rate of 2.5 per cent.”
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Kyle McPhee to $32 from $30 with an “outperform” rating.
“The Q4/25 update landed with revenue and margins slightly better than expected. This trend is consistent with results from recent quarters, and the update is largely confirmatory for our forecast that calls for ongoing organic growth at a mid-single-digit rate, alongside incremental margin expansion that is largely related to opex leverage and remaining optimization/efficiency runway,” said Mr. McPhee.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay to $32 from $27 with a “buy” rating.
“Savaria closed a transformative period on a strong note, underscoring both the success and durability of the Savaria One initiatives in enhancing profitability,” said Mr. Tremblay. “We were also pleased with growth in 4Q, including in Europe, which bodes well for a multi-pronged growth plan to be introduced at an investor day on April 14.”
* Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $32 from $27 with an “outperform” rating.
“We see a number of catalysts on the horizon for Savaria, the most substantial will be the April 2026 unveiling of the ‘Savaria Two’, which will represent the next iteration of the company’s operational excellence plan,” said Mr. Glen.
* Stifel’s Justin Keywood to $29 from $28 with a “buy” rating.
“The next iteration of Savaria One will be revealed at the Investor Day, April 14, where new targets are to be conveyed but anticipated to be growth-tilted vs. margin-focused (albeit still expansion opportunity). Organic growth progression is expected throughout 2026 with secular strength, new product introductions and a Europe leadership change. The pipeline for M&A is also robust, both dealer assets and product opportunities with a strong balance sheet to support (only 1 times levered). As Savaria continues to execute well with new scale ahead, valuation should re-rate towards peers,” said Mr. Keywood.
* National Bank’s Zachary Evershed to $30.50 from $30 with an “outperform” rating.
“With S1 initiatives continuing to prove out and the next phase in the works, we reiterate our Outperform rating, and SIS remains our top pick for the year,” said Mr. Evershed.
TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison sees a “compelling” risk-reward proposition in Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) following the release of fourth-quarter 2025 results that met his expectations as well as “reasonable” 2026 guidance.
After the bell on Thursday, the Vaughan, Ont.-based automotive parts manufacturer reported quarterly adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $136-million and earnings per share of 42 cents. Both largely met the estimates of the analyst ($135-million and 40 cents) and the Street ($140-million and 41 cents).
“The Q4/25 results were in line with our forecast, through a combination of higher sales offset by a lower operating margin,” he said. “Sales benefited from program mix, a foreign exchange benefit, and higher than forecast acquisition contribution. The operating margin drivers were as expected albeit a timing of a customer settlement into H1/25 accounts for the margin shortfall.”
“The introduction of 2026 guidance, implies midpoint EBITDA of $595-million, that is 3-4 per cent below consensus. That stated consensus falls within the highend of the guidance range. The discontinuation of the Ford Escape was a larger top-line ($200-million) contribution then we had forecast. That stated the mid-point, and inputs deriving the guidance, appear reasonable that translates to a valuation sub-3 times, representing the lowest valuation within our peer group.”
Mr. Morrison continues to see the company committed to asset optimization and positive FCF generation., which he thinks “appears to be discounted by investors, with a valuation at the low-end of its average rang and upon considering its relative underperformance to MGA/LNR [Magna and Linamar] in 2025.”
“Prior explanations for Martinrea trading at a 1.0-1.5 times multiple discount was justified by customer concentration risk, being a serial acquiror of distressed assets, FCF volatility, and capital allocation in a public company,” he said. “We believe management is now more disciplined in its acquisition criteria, including its focus upon optimizing the performance of its current portfolio. Positive FCF generation is a key priority today, that management has established a track record of consistency, supporting a strong balance sheet while maintaining an NCIB. Yet the discount to the peer group now exceeds 2-turns currently.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating for Martinrea shares, Mr. Morrison raised his target to $15 from $14. The average target is $12.50.
“We summarize the Q4/25 release as neutral, albeit it could lead to modest downward revisions to consensus this morning,” he said. “Shares have notably underpeformed its key peers the past year, creating a valuation discrepancy that is getting increasingly difficult to justify. We maintain a conservative 3.0 times multiple upon rolling forward our valuation to 2027 that increases our target to $15.00. Our revised pecking order, based upon recent relative performance/valuation/market liquidity is updated to be MGA/MRE/LNR.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard to $10.50 from $11 with a “market perform” rating.
“The profitability of Martinrea’s operations outside North America continues to be challenged and remains a quarterly swing factor,” said Mr. Ricard. “While the introduced 2026 outlook is moderately below expectations (i.e., contract timing), the ‘cadence of launches should contribute meaningful organic sales growth’ leading to 2028. “MRE’s valuation remains inexpensive although improving margin visibility is needed for multiple expansion, in our view.”
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $15 from $14 with a “buy” rating.
“[Thursday] night, Martinrea reported Q3/25 results in line with our forecast. While its initiation of mid-point 2026 EBITDA guidance is marginally below consensus, it appears reasonable. This implies a valuation well below peers, that given its developing track record of positive FCF seems punitive. With the sensitivity to a multiple turn of $8.25, we view the share price as a compelling risk/reward,” said Mr. Morrison.
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Gavin Fairweather upgraded Tecsys Inc. (TCS-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” while reiterating a $40 target, while National Bank’s Richard Tse raised his target to $32 from $29 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $28.75.
“Q3 results delivered a solid beat on both the top line and margins, with the headline ARR miss primarily driven by FX and temporary non-core churn. Encouragingly, underlying sales velocity improved meaningfully after several quarters of elongated cycles, and leading KPIs point to sustained momentum as those churn headwinds abate. Additionally, Management announced a 7-per-cent headcount reduction in redirect savings toward growth, effectively offsetting required F27 investments while reaffirming full-year F26 guidance. Given this improved sales execution, increased visibility into the margin ramp, and the recent pullback in shares, we are upgrading Tecsys,” said Mr. Fairweather.
* With a fourth-quarter 2025 “beat across the board” alongside the announcement of an agreement with Defence Construction Canada to deliver the Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar Program Stage 1 project, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier increased his Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) target to a high on the Street of $43 from $35 with a “hold” rating, while BMO’s Devin Dodge bumped his target to $40 from $35.50 with a “market perform” rating. The average target is $33.08.
“We have updated our risk qualifier to ‘Average’ from ‘Above-average’ following the opening of the Eglinton and Finch LRTs, a reduction in fixed price exposure, two consecutive quarters of solid execution, a reduction in leverage, and improved visibility on outer year revenue (Arctic OTHR Stage 1 and other large cost plus projects not yet in the backlog),” said Mr. Poirier. “That said, after the AI-driven pullback in engineering shares, we favour WSP, STN and ATRL given their stronger return potential relative to ARE.”
* National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah increased his target for AirBoss of America Corp. (BOS-T) to $7, exceeding the $6.50 average, from $5 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The strategic review is complete and BOS is sharpening priorities around vertical integration and defense-led growth,” said Mr. Abdullah. AirBoss is leaning harder into its defence platform, framing higher NATO/allied spending as a durable tailwind. ADG is actively engaging Canadian and European counterparts and sees a growing pipeline as budgets rise ... We track recently announced defence contracts that total a potential value of $235M. The plan is to scale current and next-gen defence programs while still diversifying AMP’s rubber molded products and building ARS specialty compounding. Defense is being positioned as a multi-year growth engine, but we’d like to see a pickup in contract awards before underwriting upside into our multiples. BOS aims to see new defence revenue in 2H26 and into 2027."
* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof increased his target for shares of Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) to $8 from $6.50 with a “hold” rating (unchanged). The average is $8.67.
“Q4 headline results in line; Leismer expansion continues to track well and has now been almost entirely de-risked, in our view,” said Mr. Hulshof. “Management remains fully committed to disciplined spending and selectively funding growth. Corner Phase 1 almost certainly next in the queue with H2/26 FID feeling increasingly likely. DEC growth forecast could arguably creep higher with higher sustained oil prices.”
* Seeing franchisee profitability improving but expecting macro crosswinds to weigh on 2026 same-store sales growth, RBC’s Logan Reich reduced his A&W Food Services of Canada Inc. (AW-T) target to $40 from $42 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $41.50.
“AW’s 4Q25 print was mixed and FY26 top-line guidance came in below our estimate coming in, though EBITDA guidance was in-line at the midpoint,” he added.
* BMO’s John Gibson reduced his Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) target to $80 from $85 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $82.20.
“BDGI Q4/25 results were modestly below expectations, with higher costs impacting margins,” said Mr. Gibson. “The company also announced its 2026 truck build guidance, which implies net fleet growth of 7-10 per cent (vs. 5 per cent in 2025). Post quarter, we trim our target price ... reflecting 9 times 2027 EV/EBITDA and maintain our Market Perform rating. Overall end market demand remains strong, although tariff-related impacts could weaken economics around its newbuilds. That said, we expect the company to realize some margin expansion as it improves legacy franchises.”
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2026 fiscal results on March 24, National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar trimmed his Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) to $225 from $226 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $224.28.
“Our forecast of sequentially lower same-store sales growth (Q3/F26 was 6.0 per cent) largely reflects 180 basis points of headwind from the Halloween shift to Q3 vs. Q4 last year, among other factors,” he said. “Our data suggests that sssg moderated slightly quarter-over-quarter. Our review of peer commentary and NIQ data suggests: (i) consumer spending remains focused on value and trading down amid a pressured macroeconomic backdrop, and (ii) incremental trip frequency from higher-income households.”
“We hold a positive view on DOL’s shares reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance.”
* Touting a “high-calibre asset mix” following in-line results National Bank’s Dan Payne increased his Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX-T) target to a Street high of $13 from $11.50 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Jeremy McCrea to $13.50 from $11 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch to $11.75 from $11 with a “hold” rating. The average is $10.50.
“The ultimate value proposition of the pure-play conventional heavy oil player, magnified by the complements of waterflood, continues to be significant as we note the materiality of FCF translation and shareholder returns,” said Mr. Payne. “HWX is poised for a 12-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 10 per cent) on leverage of negative 0.2 times (vs. peers 1.0 times), while trading at 8.9 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 4.6 times).”
* In response to in-line quarterly results and a “strong” reserves update, Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds moved his InPlay Oil Corp. (IPO-T) target to $17.50 from $17, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average is $19.83.
“Outlook remains intact following the recently released guidance with a continued focus on free cash flow generation near term,” he said.
“Overall, we believe IPO is well positioned moving forward with a flexible and disciplined capital program, sustainable dividend (6.6-per-cent Yield), and significant financial flexibility ($190-million undrawn credit facility) with a strategically aligned 32.7-per-cent shareholder in Delek Group.”
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 26, National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah raised his Lassonde Industries Inc. (LAS.A-T) target to $258 from $247 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $251.
“Commodity costs are relatively stable,” he said. “Apple juice concentrate prices are up year-over-year but down sequentially, while orange juice concentrate prices continue to comp against elevated 2024 levels year-over-year, though they are also down quarter-over-quarter. LAS noted that growth should torque down as it laps 1) Summer Garden purchase, 2) deployment of its single-serve line in North Carolina (July/August 2024), and 3) last year’s price increases that were instated in 2H25.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil increased his Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X) target to $39 from $36 with a “buy” rating, while TD Cowen’s David Kwan raised his target to $39 from $36 with a “buy” rating. The average is $40.50.
“LMN reported a solid quarter, with beats on revenue, EBITDA and FCFA2S [Free Cash Flow Available to Shareholders]. EBITDA grew 27 per cent year-over-year and FCFA2S grew 48 per cent in 4Q25 before the Synchronoss numbers even started contributing to LMN’s results. We do not see AI easily disrupting LMN because Tier-1 telecom companies (LMN’s most important clients) rely on highly customized, ultra-reliable core systems with long, restrictive vendor cycles. This makes rapid displacement unlikely, but does not preclude LMN from leveraging AI internally,” said Mr. Dubreuil.
* In response to “strong” quarterly results, National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar raised his Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) target to $34, matching the average, from $33 with an “outperform” rating ahead of its Investor Day event on March 10. Other changes include: Scotia’s John Zamparo to $30 from $27 with a “sector perform” rating and Stifel’s Martin Landry to $35 from $32 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe that MFI can improve profitability and deliver amongst the highest EBITDA margin within branded protein peers, in conjunction with low-to-mid-single digit top-line growth. We acknowledge heightened risk, largely due to execution and commodity volatility. In our view, valuation can re-rate higher if MFI demonstrates stable sales growth and EBITDA margin improvement over time,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* RBC’s Andrew Wong hiked his NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) target to $20 from $15 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw to $18 from $16 with a “sector outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur to $20 from $18 with an “outperform” rating and Stifel’s Ralph Profiti to $30 from $22 with a “buy” rating. The average is $19.20.
“We see CNSC approval of NexGen’s Rook I project clearing the path for construction to start mid-year and opening up a window for potential strategic partnerships and/or take-out offers. We believe NexGen has the cash available on hand to begin the early stages of construction while management has indicated strong financing interest for the Rook I project. At PCE, recent drilling indicates promising mineralization, and we think further exploration may eventually culminate in a sizable deposit nearby Rook I, enhancing the company’s long-term optionality and strategic value.”
* Stifel’s Martin Landry reduced his target for Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) by $1 to $21 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $20 from $22 with a “hold” rating, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ David McFadgen to $39 from $36 with an “outperform” rating and RBC’s Drew McReynolds to $25 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $25.25.
“Spin Master is capping a difficult year as EPS declined 35 per cent year-over-year, bottoming to the lowest levels of the last five years,” said Mr. Landry. “The company’s 2025 revenues were impacted by a shift in retailers’ ordering patterns which delayed revenue recognition. This dynamic was exacerbated as retailers also reduced inventory. Looking forward to 2026, the year appears to be a tale of two halves, with a difficult first half where revenues and earnings will be down significantly, and with a second half, for which management is hopeful will bring growth. Spin Master continues to test investors’ patience with a stock price below 2016 IPO levels. The company’s valuation looks appealing at less than 5 times 2027 EBITDA and less than 10 times 2027 EPS, a significant discount to peers. The time will come to turn more positive on TOY but given the limited catalysts near-term we remain on the sidelines.”
* National Bank’s Dan Payne bumped his Yangarra Resources Ltd. (YGR-T) target to $1.25 from $1, keeping a “sector perform” recommendation. The average is $1.20.
“The company continues to manage the long-term option value of its resource, which should come into view more fully over the medium term upon adequate deleveraging,” said Mr. Payne. “YGR is poised for a 6-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 11 per cent) on a leverage of 1.3 times (vs. peers 0.7 tims), while trading at 2.8 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 4.7 times).