Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Seeing oil prices as a “major headwind” for Air Canada (AC-T) in the near term, Canaccord Genuity analyst Mark Neville downgraded its shares to “hold” from “buy” after assuming coverage of the airline on Friday, despite touting its “unmatched scale and revenue diversity.”
“We see a clearly defined bull case: a modernized fleet and expanded network, in addition to actions taken to permanently remove costs, could drive structural margin and FCF improvements in the years beyond our forecast horizon,” he said in a client report. “However, with oil prices now mor ethan US$90/barrel, we believe near-term results will be challenged.”
Mr. Neville thinks Air Canada will likely need to reduce its 2026 guidance as the price of oil has risen by more than US$30 per barrel since its latest targets were revealed on Feb. 12.
“Our revised F2026E adjusted EBITDA sits 16 per cent below the mid-point of guidance and 11 per cent below the low-end of the guided range,” he added. “While we expect FCF to remain constrained through our forecast period, even with the benefit of sales leaseback proceeds, we believe AC has the balance sheet strength (1.7 times) and liquidity ($7.5-billion) to manage through a period of higher WTI/fuel prices.
The analyst set a target of $21 per share, down from the firm’s previous $28 target. The average on the Street is $24.70, according to LSEG data.
“We value AC shares at 4.25 TIMES EV/EBITDA on our 2027 estimates,” said Mr. Neville. “Historically, the stock has traded at an average of 3.5 times EV/EBITDA (next 12 months). We believe a premium is justified given the counter cyclical relationship between WTI/fuel prices, earnings, and the trading multiple. Moreover, while earnings will be negatively impacted in the N/T, in a lower oil price environment (1) our current forecasts would be too low, and (2) current company actions shoul
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman says he remains a buyer of NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) following its fourth-quarter earnings release, expecting its shares to “grind higher in the near-term as investors digest results/guidance and profit-taking clears out.”
“Near record backlog valued at approximately $13-billion between firm orders and options provides high revenue visibility (equates to 4-plus years of Manufacturing revenue at 2025 levels), just at a time when execution is improving,” he said in a client report titled You Get a Bus, and You Get a Bus, and You Get a Bus!
“We raised our valuation multiple to 8 times EV/EBITDA on our 2026 estimates (was 7.5 times) to account for upside to our estimates/guidance. Our target price goes up $1/share to $22. NFI remains one of the most attractive risk/rewards in our coverage universe.”
On Thursday, shares of the Winnipeg-based bus manufacturer jumped 6.6 per cent after it reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $121.3-million, which is a quarterly record and 18 per cent above the Street’s $102.4-million on higher-than-anticipated margins (11.8 per cent versus 9.6 per cent). It logged deliveries of 1,233, a height now reached since the second quarter of 2024.
Its 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA calls for a midpoint of $390-million (from a range of $370-410-million), which is narrowly below the consensus projection ($395-million) and called “conservative” by Mr. Goldman given the quarterly results, “strong” free cash flow generation and “underlying trends.”
“Between the 4Q EBITDA run-rate of $484-million annualized and midpoint of guidance $390-million, there is plenty of upside,” he said. “We’ve taken a more modest tact to 2026 deliveries at 5,000 ... while backlog ASPs suggest pricing will be net positive despite lower mix of ZEBs and higher mix of U.K. EBITDA/EU should improve significantly off of $52k in 2025 on higher throughout as the company is lapping the seat supplier issue, the battery recall, and should benefit from its All Canadian Build facility. Aftermarket is expected to grow low-single-digits. Put it altogether, and we see $390-million EBITDA as a floor for 2026, which should accelerate deleveraging close to target range of 1.5 times to 2.5x exiting 2026.”
Maintaining his “sector outperform” rating for NFI shares, Mr. Goldman’s new target of $22, up from $21, matches the current average on the Street.
Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Chris Murray bumped his target to $28 from $27 with an “outperform” rating.
“NFI reported better-than-expected Q4/25 results driven by improving contract pricing, which supported a significantly better-than-expected margin in Manufacturing. Management issued guidance calling for mid-teens EBITDA growth (at the midpoint) in 2026, which, in our view, appears conservative given the backlog, rising selling prices, and improving supply chain conditions. NFI is positioned to deliver meaningfully stronger profitability in 2026/2027, and we continue to see value at current levels (6.5 times 2026e) with improving ROIC supportive an upward re-rating toward historical trading multiples (9.0 times) over the medium term,” said Mr. Murray.
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees “excellent” revenue and earnings visibility amid an inflecting end-market" for Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T).
“When combining groWing infrastructure activity, resumption of turnaround work in the industrial space, and nuclear/defence/data centre opportunities, it’s hard not be excited about the company’s prospects,” he said. “We continue to see more upside in the shares while still believing that the gap vs. U.S. construction peers on an EV/EBITDA basis is too large; hence we are comfortable to increase our target EV/EBITDA multiple to 8.0 times (from 7.0 times) and with confident language around margins, we are now in line with the company’s guide of 8 per cent for EBITDA in 2027E.”
After the bell on Thursday, the Mississauga-based construction and maintenance company reported revenue for its fourth quarter of 2025 of $877-million, which was a decline of 6 per cent year-over-year and 4 per cent under the Street’s projection of $912-million, though Mr. Sytchev emphasized “negative organic growth was already telegraphed last quarter due to delays in certain Industrial/Buildings work programs.” Adjusted EBITDA of $66-million and adjusted earnings per share of 57 cents both topped the consensus estimates ($62-million and 54 cents, respectively).
The analyst said Bird’s “broad-based strength” in demand is driving a record backlog as well as revenue visibility, and he now expects a major inflection in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
“Bird’s accelerating new project awards continue to drive the backlog upwards amid strong end-market demand across the company’s core sectors – including nuclear (now approximately 10 per cent of revenues and likely to grow further; formal announcements of new builds in Ontatio would be a big catalyst), defence (Arctic dual infrastructure buildout), data centers (40 proposals are being tabled in Alberta and management believes we are 3 to 4 years behind the U.S. here),” he added. “BDT’s electrical capacity and expertise (it is the largest electrical contractor in the country) and extensive experience with smaller-scale projects in Western Canada is especially helpful in securing data center work, and the rapid multiple expansion of U.S. firms in this space is an encouraging sign. The ramp-up of ‘nation-building’ projects and Dow’s Path2Zero projects also provide additional material, multi-year revenue visibility (the best in management’s memory) through the end of the decade, creating a significant growth runway for traditional infrastructure work. In total, management sees a $275-billion TAM [total addressable market] for BDT, split evenly between the company’s core Industrial/Buildings/Infrastructure segments (the recent FRPD [Fraser River Pile & Dredge] acquisition has bolstered the latter vertical significantly).
“As a result, management expects a return to topline growth around the middle of the year, with 2026E revenues expected to be up by double-digits year-over-year on a very strong second half (yes, comps are easier but momentum is objectively very strong and the contracted backlog is up 36 per cent year-over-year). As a result, management remains confident in achieving 8-per-cent to 12-per-cent organic growth through 2027E. Likewise, EBITDA margins are expected to expand by 150 basis points in the next 2 years and hit the corresponding 8-per-cent target, anchored by positive operating leverage, a higher proportion of self-perform work, an increased mix of higher-margin infrastructure revenues, and operational streamlining (ERP rollout is now complete). On the latter front, management noted increased usage of AI/digital tools to streamline back office processes and improve the project management framework (improved planning through better visibility as well as earlier/faster identification and mitigation of potential issues).”
Mr. Sytchev kept an “outperform” rating for Bird shares with a $39 target, rising from $34 based on his estimates for the next two fiscal years. The average is $36.50.
“We raised our estimates (more weighted towards H2/26E) as the company pointed to increased momentum being observed in key end-markets discussed above, along with the fact that there is now more optimism in management’s tone for the delayed industrial work getting back on track this year,” he explained. “2025’s flat revenue growth should provide easier comps for next year’s revenue inflection (and also bolstered by the fact that contracted backlog is up +36 per cent year-over-year - comprised of relatively higher margin work), and 54 per cent of the backlog is expected to be completed in the next 12 months. These factors give us more confidence in raising our 2027E margin expectations to align with Bird’s Investor Day target of 8 per cent. Higher Federal stimulus (via Govt. Budget 2025 disclosure), Canadian mega-projects getting fast tracked, potential for more M&A akin to the highly-accretive FRPD and Jacob Bros, and higher demand for Canadian data center and Power/Nuclear markets should all provide further upside to our 2027E projections.”
Elsewhere, others tweaking their targets include:
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to a Street high of $55 from $36 with a “buy” rating.
“We are increasing our target price ... which reflects 16.6 times 2027 estimated P/E (prior: 11.5 times),” said Mr. Gillies. “This valuation multiple is well above the company’s 10Y average of 11.4x. In our view, an unprecedented amount of end market demand in Canada stemming from Federal and Provincial government spending to reindustrialize the nation (particularly tied to defense, energy, health care and transportation) is going to create a long tail of double-digits organic revenue growth for BDT. This is partially represented in the 25-27 estimated EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 30.7 per cent, but will likely push out to 2030. Meanwhile, the company offers an outstanding 2026E/2027E ROIC of 22.0 per cent and clean balance sheet (1.4 times 2026E ND/EBITDA). Lastly, AI is unlikely to negatively impact BDT’s business. With this combination of factors in mind, we expect valuation expansion to become a key tenet of positive stock performance over the next 12-months, alongside a recovery in EPS growth.”
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $38 from $35 with an “outperform” rating.
“BDT delivered better-than-expected Q4/25 results, driven by an improving project mix and a contribution from Fraser River Pile and Dredge (FRPD). Management expects to deliver double-digit revenue growth in 2026, reiterating its view that growth will favour H2/26 and extend into 2027. Bookings remained active in Q4/25 with the $11.1-billion backlog and improving underlying margin trends, positioning the Company to deliver meaningful EPS growth. We remain constructive on Bird and see potential for estimates and valuation multiples to trend higher given the improving growth and margin outlook,” said Mr. Murray.
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to $44 from $34 with an “outperform” rating.
“We reaffirm our Outperform rating on Bird after the contractor delivered a strong quarter and an even stronger outlook. Our positive stance rests on the firm’s record backlog, healthy balance sheet, leading self-perform capabilities, and strong alignment with long-term national investment themes. After a 2025 somewhat tainted by project delays and a client’s expected bankruptcy, BDT is starting 2026 with flexibility, visibility, and momentum,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $37 from $33 with a “buy” rating.
“Bird is well positioned in Canada’s robust infrastructure, industrial, and buildings markets where demand is strong for LNG, mining, defense upgrades, infrastructure renewal and expansion, mission-critical buildings (healthcare and data centres), and power generation (nuclear). We see double-digit revenue growth this year based on record backlog, a full year of FRPD, and the resumption of previously delayed projects,” said Mr. Lynk.
National Bank Financial analyst Mike Stevens thinks Kraken Robotics Inc.’s (PNG-X) $615-million acquisition of Covelya Group Ltd. is an accretive transaction that brings “diversified scale.”
Coming off research restriction following the March 3 deal for the U.K. provider of underwater technology solutions and a concurrent bought deal public offering that raised $400-million in gross proceeds , he raised his rating for St. John’s-based Kraken to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“Kraken’s (revenue) scale is set to jump approximately 3 times alongside a far more diversified revenue mix, product set, and customer base, without much sacrifice to its growth/margin profile,” said Mr. Stevens. “The transaction is highly accretive. Kraken is acquiring Covelya at 2.3 times revenue and 9.7 times Adj. EBITDA on FY25 (last 12-month) estimates, while trading at 26.8 times and 110.6 times (LTM), respectively, at the time of the announcement.
“We believe considerable revenue synergy opportunities exist.”
The analyst raised his target to a high on the Street of $13 from $8.75. The average target is $9.40.
“Recall that in January we moved to Sector Perform after shares surged 36 per cent to begin the year absent any fundamental drivers (or obvious near-term catalysts), which we believed increased valuation risk meaningfully,” he concluded.
“That said, we noted (upfront) three potential risks to our call: “1) the potential for Kraken to land a large defense (program) order; 2) M&A - either a meaningful accretive acquisition or alternatively a take-out development; and 3) Further escalation in global geopolitical tensions (and thus, sentiment for defense stocks).” Suffice to say, the latter two events materialized in a profound way with Kraken’s scale set to triple on the back of a highly accretive acquisition, while the U.S. war with Iran has ratcheted up broader sentiment for defence-related names.”
Conversely, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Nicholas Boychuk lowered Kraken to “underperform” from “sector perform” with a $6.50 target, up from $5.50.
“PNG’s acquisition of Covelya deepens customer relationships and meaningfully expands the product offering and TAM. It expands geographic reach into new markets and diversifies the revenue profile, bolsters technical capabilities and is accretive financially. But it was necessary and defensive; PNG’s core business is underperforming expectations and needed material downward revisions in our forecast. Further research into the company’s legacy moat also highlights significant tail risk that is in no way factored into the current valuation and may explain the lack of recent wins and underwhelming near-term guide. As one of the earliest champions of PNG we remain constructive of the business and team long-term but see considerable risk in the stock price rationalizing should investor enthusiasm and momentum wane,” said Mr. Boychuk.
Elsewhere, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier resumed coverage and hiked his target to $14 from $9.50 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the Covelya acquisition positively as it transforms Kraken into a globally-scaled, dual‑use subsea platform company, broadening its offering and positioning it as a one‑stop supplier to unmanned OEMs. The deal expands TAM, triples manufacturing capacity, deepens customer entrenchment (notably with Anduril), reduces concentration risk and preserves profitability—relevant amid the accelerating adoption of unmanned systems, and real proof points such as rising mine risks near Iran and Ukraine’s first UUV use," said Mr. Poirier.
Following a 28-per-cent sell-off in shares of North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) on Thursday following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results, ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello now sees “a tactical buying opportunity for investors ahead of a catalyst rich 2026.”
That led him to upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“Results ... included a 22-per-cent adj. EBITDA miss ($78-million vs $99-million consensus, $98-million ATB estimate), that stemmed from a $13-million cost variance vs. budget on construction aspects of the FargoMoorhead JV project that were outside NOA’s scope, and reduced Australian activity late in Q4/25 due to abnormally wet conditions ($7-$8, ATBe),” said Mr. Monachello.
“While we believe both of these variances were largely out of NOA’s control, investors have endured numerous quarters of adverse earnings impacts over recent quarters, and this is weighing on investor confidence. Nevertheless, NOA’s deleveraging outpaced our model in Q4/25 (partially due to a revaluation of contingent consideration), FCF generation was in-line with guidance, and its 2026 guidance and opportunity set remain intact. Overall, we believe the market’s reaction to NOA’s headline miss represents a buying opportunity for investors as NOA’s 2026 outlook is largely in backlog and its diverse opportunity set provides a catalyst rich environment for investors in 2026. We expect NOA’s earnings volatility to compress in moving forward as the Fargo project winds down, complemented by the operational breadth of IMC and a diversifying pipeline of potential contract awards.”
Mr. Bastien trimmed his target to $21 from $23. The average is $24.69.
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk upgraded his rating to “buy” from “hold” with a $20 target (unchanged).
“This comes on the heels of a 27-per-cent drop in the stock in reaction to another disappointing quarter,” said Mr. Lynk. “While we still contend NACG’s results are far too unpredictable, its Canadian oil sands business is set for further contraction (recall, it sold 26 trucks last quarter), and it is difficult to get positive with the CEO search still ongoing, we cannot ignore NACG’s deep value potential. Furthermore, we posit these worries are less relevant to the investment case when we consider oil sands is only 12.5 per cent of EBIT (pro forma) and Australia, where results have featured consistent growth and predictable margins, is now 75 per cent of the business. Yes, there is still some tail risk associated with the Fargo infrastructure project, but it is manageable, in our view, and the project is more than 85 per cent complete. Despite the Q4/2025 miss, our 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts are largely unchanged, as is management’s guidance and the backlog and bid funnel are very healthy. We chalk today’s stock price action up to capitulation on behalf of frustrated shareholders. As always, this creates an opportunity for highly risk tolerant, patient investors to buy on the cheap.”
Meanwhile, Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien cut his targetto $24 from $26 with an “outperform” rating.
“We maintain our Outperform rating on North American Construction Group after another dismal quarterly print. As painful as it was to watch the stock lose over a quarter of its value amid an already volatile tape, it is this exact performance that inspired the series of changes recently implemented at NACG. From where we sit, this rearview mirror of 4Q25 has little bearing on our forward expectations. We see the acquisition of Iron Mine Contracting diversifying NACG’s Australian business and positioning it for outsized growth in critical minerals. Combined with a right-sized domestic fleet, accelerating infrastructure and nation-building activity, and a firmer oil sands outlook, we see a credible path to a more stable 2026. Accordingly, we believe the risk-reward remains skewed to the upside and encourage value-oriented investors to stay engaged,” said Mr. Bastien.
Following “a busy 2025 on the transaction front,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Greg Pardy believes Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T) is focused on “executing its organic growth plans as a pure play oil sands and heavy oil producer.”
In the wake of “solid” fourth-quarter 2025 results, Mr. Pardy, who is the firm’s Head of Global Energy Research, reaffirmed his “constructive stance” on the Calgary-based company, which he said “reflects its solid operating performance, robust shareholder alignment and extensive RLI [reserve life index].”
After the bell on Thursday, Strathcona reported result that included broadly in-line production of 117,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day and lower operating costs versus Mr. Pardy’s outlook (an estimate of 117,300 boe/d).
“The company’s net debt stood at roughly $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2025, following its circa $2.14 billion special distribution to shareholders in the quarter, partly offset by the complete disposal of its marketable securities (MEG Energy & Tourmaline Oil positions),” he added.
“Alongside the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, Strathcona highlighted that its Board of Directors has approved the filing to commence a NCIB which, upon approval by the TSX, will allow the company to repurchase up to 5 per cent of its common shares outstanding (10.7 million common shares) over a twelve-month period,” he added. “As highlighted in the company’s 2025 letter to shareholders , Strathcona intends to repurchase shares opportunistically rather than follow a formulaic approach based upon its view of the intrinsic value of its shares over time. This additional prong to the company’s shareholder returns approach comes following another share pass-through transaction by the Waterous Energy Fund (WEF) on March 5, 2026, disposing of 7.1 million Strathcona shares and increasing the public float, as well as average daily trading volumes that have grown since the company went public. WEF now holds roughly 66.6 per cent of Strathcona’s common shares (vs. 69.9 per cent as of December 31, 2025). As a reminder, Strathcona also maintains an annualized base dividend of $1.20 per share (3.1-per-cent yield).”
Keeping a “sector perform” rating for the company’s shares, Mr. Pardy raised his target by $1 to $36, exceeding the average of $35.67.
“Under futures pricing Strathcona is trading at a 2026E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 4.5 times (vs. our Canadian Intermediate E&P peer group avg. of 5.1 times) and a free cash flow yield of 14 per cent (vs. peers at 10 per cent),” he said. “We believe that Strathcona should trade at a modest valuation discount vis-à-vis our peer group given its early-stage track record in public markets and limited public float, partly offset by its extensive reserve life and robust shareholder alignment.”
Elsewhere, National Bank’s Travis Wood hiked his target to $41 from $32 with an “outperform” rating.
“We note Strathcona’s operating leverage to rising oil prices, which accelerates deleveraging efforts while backstopping growth ahead of a step change in FCF generation beginning next year,” said Mr. Wood.
Pointing to a “strong relative share price performance this year” combined with a reduction to his forecast following an in-line fourth quarter of 2025, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Harvey downgraded Freehold Royalties Ltd. (FRU-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“Our estimates are revised downward for both 2026 and 2027 reflective of update 2026 guide. Production shifts down in 2026/27 (down 4 per cent/down 3 per cent) on lower guidance vs our prior expectations; our CFPS estimates fall largely as a result of lower volumes in 2026/27 (down 8 per cent/down 6 per cent),” he said.
After the bell on Wednesday, the Calgary-based company reported adjusted funds from operations for the quarter of 31 cents, missing the 33-cent estimate of both Mr. Harvey and the Street, while volumes of 16,294 barrels of oil equivalent per day were in line with projections (16,302 boe/d and 16,180 boe/d, respectively).
However, its guidance for 2026 points to production of 15,500-16,300 boe/d, falling short of the Street’s forecast of 16,443 boe/d. The analyst said the gap was “largely due to an expectation of weak Canadian gas pricing into 2026 and the impact of winter storms in the U.S.”
“FRU expects softer volumes in the first half of the year with recovery in the back half,” he added, reducing his forecast through 2027.
With those cuts, Mr. Harvey maintained a $17 target for the company’s shares. The average is $18.16.
Elsewhere, other revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to $21 from $22, remaining the high on the Street, with a “buy” rating.
“While Q4 and the ’26 guide were modestly below expectations, given surging oil prices, a CF windfall beyond higher netbacks could also show up in higher activity levels,” said Mr. Bilkoski. “We believe the equity still offers an attractive total return in 2026 under strip pricing (6-per-cent dividend which only consumes 61 per cent of CF), slight exit-to-exit volume growth, and debt reduction equal to 4 per cent of the current market cap.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch to $16 from $16.50 with a “hold” rating.
“While acknowledging that the near-term production outlook is softer than previously anticipated, we are inclined to view the update as an opportunity to reset expectations, rather than a structural setback. And with oil prices strengthening, we see potential for a gradual acceleration in operator activity, particularly in the U.S.,” he said.
Citing “near-term earnings choppiness” with its 2026 guidance falling short of estimates and a valuation being higher than its large-cap U.S. Sunbelt peers, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Jimmy Shan lowered his rating for BSR REIT (HOM.U-T, HOM.UN-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“2026 is not reflective of its earnings power and given the portfolio quality and operating platform, we remain confident in the material upside to FFO/ unit to pre-2025 levels from absorption of excess supply, lease-up of newly acquired/developed assets and various operational initiatives,” he said. “That said, we think this will take some time and in the context of a fragile market, investor patience is in short supply.”
Units of the Toronto-based REIT, which owns multifamily garden-style residential properties largely in the “Texas Triangle” markets of Austin, Houston, and Dallas, fell 6.6 per cent on Thursday after it reported quarterly funds from operations per unit of 14 US cents, down 36 per cent year-over-year and under both Mr. Shan’s 19-US-cent estimate and the consensus forecast of 20 US cents. The miss came largely due to higher operating expenses and a lack of benefit from tax appeals versus other quarters.
“2026 FFO guide implies 2-per-cent year-over-year decline at midpoint,” said the analyst. “We lower our ‘26E FFO to $0.75 from $0.83 and ‘27E FFO to $0.83 from $0.93. 2025 & 2026 are ‘transition’ years and BSR maintained the previously-guided incremental FFO upside of $0.13-0.22 by 2028, implying $0.90-$1.00.”
With a drop in his forecast through fiscal 2027, Mr. Shan cut his target to US$13 from US$14.50. The average on the Street is US$12.50.
Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges dropped BSR to “market perform” from “outperform” with a US$12.50 target, down from US$14.
“We adjust our rating for BSR to Market Perform (prior: Outperform), reflecting our revised our FFO/unit and AFFO/unit estimates that imply slightly negative 2026E AFFO/unit growth year-over-year based on a subdued U.S. Sunbelt MFR leasing demand environment,” said Mr. Sturges. “We expect an extended timeline for BSR’s recent US MFR acquisitions to reach estimated stabilized NOI levels. As such, we assume that BSR’s annualized NOI may not reach full stabilization until 1H27, based on the estimated time required for amortized leasing incentives to be fully eliminated.”
Analysts making target revisions include:
* TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to US$13 from US$15 with a “buy” rating.
“[Thursday’s] stock reaction is more muted than expected post the Q4 miss and ’26 guide, in our view reflecting management’s confidence in sticking to its 3-year growth targets (albeit off a lower base),” he said. “Our estimates now reflect what we view as trough earnings, that should start to accelerate in H2/26, benefiting from an improving macro and company specific NOI generators.”
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack to US$12.50 from US$13 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Q4 was significantly weaker than expected, although a sizable variance on property taxes was a meaningful contributor and these figures can move around a fair bit based on the timing of reimbursements. There were also signs of continued competitiveness of the leasing environment as new leasing spreads remained deep in negative territory, bringing down the blended figure, while occupancy was largely stable. Between the top-line pressures and weaker margins, the REIT put up its worst year-over-year organic growth since going public. The outlook for 2026 calls for slight improvement in NOI over that achieved in 2025 but taken together, this was well below consensus expectations,” said Mr. Kornack.
* Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley to US$13 from US$14 with a “buy” rating.
“4Q25 results missed expectations, while 2026 FFOPU guidance disappointed, coming in 14 per cent below expectations,” said Mr. Stanley. “In response, we reduced our FFOPU outlook by 13–15 per cent through 2027. We are maintaining our Buy rating, despite trimming our target ... as although likely a bit early, BSR has proven its ability to deliver on a portfolio transformation in the past. Given limited trading liquidity, investors may need to position in 2H26 to benefit from a substantial 14-per-cent FFOPU growth inflection in 2027.”
In other analyst actions:
* Touting the potential of its transformation plan, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Neville upgraded CAE Inc. (CAE-T) to “buy” from “hold” upon assuming coverage and raised the firm’s target to $49 from $38. The average target on the Street is $48.43.
“As an independent operator, CAE is the global leader in simulation and training solutions in both Civil and Defense—markets with strong long-term secular tailwinds,“ he explained. ”Moreover, the company’s global footprint, large installed base, and technical know-how create prohibitive switching costs for customers, making for a highly durable business. The company is in its early days in its transformation plan, aimed at driving structural improvements across the business. The opportunities for improvement are plentiful with order of magnitude-type potential gains, in our view. In essence, an out-sized opportunity to harvest past investments. If successful, we believe this also should translate into a structurally higher trading multiple, in addition to a more cash-generative business.”
“We value CAE at 15.0 times EV/EBITDA on our F2028 estimates (lease adjusted), which is equivalent to a 4.0-per-cent FCF yield. The shares are currently trading at 13.4 times on our F2027E estimates (lease adjusted). Historically, CAE has traded at an average of 11.9 times EV/EBITDA (NTM), so we’re using a premium on EV/EBITDA. However, on a FCF basis, CAE has historically traded at an average 3.5-per-cent yield—so, in our view, we’re not actually valuing CAE at a premium. Moreover, while we are giving CAE credit for certain improvements (in margin, capital intensity, working capital, etc.) in our estimates, we believe there are additional opportunities for structural improvements beyond our forecast horizon, providing further support to our multiple."
* In response to a “slow start to 2026, but remaining optimistic,” National Bank’s Zachary Evershed reduced his Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T) target to $52 from $54.50, remaining above the $49.01 average on the Street, with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark’s Kyle McPhee to $61 from $50 with an “outperform” rating and Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $49.50 from $51 with a “buy” rating
“The pullback in sales thus far into February is primarily driven by volumes, and can very much be laid at the feet of the blizzard causing several lost days of sales. Management does not foresee any pressure on pricing from the change in tariff framework, and volumes should improve m/m in March assuming no weather disruptions and reflecting typical seasonality with the approach of spring selling. We drop our Q1 organic growth assumption to negative 1.5 per cent (was 2.3 per cent) given the slow start to the year, while hoping for a pickup in March,” said Mr. Evershed.
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur bumped his Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) target to $48 from $47 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $47.40.
“Altius has a high-margin, scalable business model with a quality, diversified asset base that gives investors exposure to potash, base metals, renewables, and premium iron ore,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams initiated coverage of Halifax-based Axo Copper Corp. (AXO-X), which is focused on copper and gold assets in Mexico, with a “buy” rating and $2 target, representing 135-per-cent upside from current trading levels.
“Axo recently closed its acquisition of the past-producing San Antonio gold project in Sonora, Mexico. Axo also owns the La Huerta copper exploration property in Jalisco, Mexico. We expect a name change in the near term and for Axo’s focus to be on the low-capex restart of San Antonio. In our view, successful permitting updates and exploration drilling are medium-term value drivers,” said Mr. Adams.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his Decisive Dividend Corp. (DE-X) target to $10.50 from $9.50 with an “outperform” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk bumped his target to $8 from $7.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $10.75.
“We are increasing our target price on Decisive Dividend ... and reiterating our Outperform rating based upon: 1) the company’s solid 4Q25 print; 2) robust demand across key end-markets (Hearth, Wear Parts, Ag); 3) prospect of increased M&A activity in 2026; & 4) attractive total return prospects,” said Mr. Hansen.
* Stifel’s Martin Landry trimmed his target for Montreal-based beverage maker Guru Organic Energy Corp. (GURU-T) target to $5.50 from $6.50 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.25.
“GURU reported good Q1FY26 results with breakeven EBITDA, representing the company’s third consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA. While Q1FY26 revenues were in-line with expectations, EBITDA came-in higher than expected on better gross margin and lower SG&A expenses. POS increased 15 per cent year-over-year in Canada, a slight deceleration vs the 20-per-cent growth in Q4FY25, but better than industry growth of 10-15 per cent for the same period. This is notable given the intense competition in the energy drink industry. GURU appears well positioned to capture market share with recent product launches and elevated marketing activities in the coming months. In our view, valuation already reflects the company’s good growth prospects. At current valuation levels, we would revisit our neutral stance upon seeing retail revenue growth exceeding 20 per cent or EBITDA margins exceeding mid-single digits on a TTM [trailing 12-month] basis,” said Mr. Landry.
* National Bank’s Alex Terentiew increased his Highlander Silver Corp. (HSLV-T) target to $14 from $11 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $12.
“Following closure of the BCM [Bear Creek Mining Corp.] acquisition and a review of our estimates in light of management’s objectives for the newly acquired Corani silver project and Mercedes gold mine, we adjusted our estimates, which were first presented in our note Incorporating Bear Creek. Overall, we added more value than we initially ascribed to the transaction (NAVPS is up 5 per cent), and correspondingly increased our target price,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski raised his Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL-T) target to $11, exceeding the $10 average, from $9 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Jeremy McCrea to $10 from $9 with an “outperform” rating and RBC’s Michael Harvey to $10 from $8.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“The quarter was largely as anticipated. With third-party infrastructure challenges now in the past, we see Kelt ramping volumes significantly though the rest of this year and into 2027,” said Mr. Bilkoski. “Meanwhile, currently elevated WTI pricing provides a meaningful CF tailwind which leads to future flexibility.”
* TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison trimmed his target for shares of Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. (LIF-T) to $29 from $30, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $36.
“LIF reported a Q4/25 EPS miss; however EBITDA (excluding IOC) was roughly in line with our estimate,” said Mr. Hutchison. “While production was pre-released, LIF noted that Q4/25 mined material moved was 34 per cent lower year-over-year due to multiple truck chassis failures. Furthermore, 2026 IOC capex guidance of US$290-million is lower than expected.”
* Following visits to its Vicuñas and Caserones projects, National Bank’s Shane Nagle moved his Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) target to $42 from $40, reiterating a “sector perform” rating. The average is $35.55.
“Phase 1 of the Vicuña JV will start with the development of Josemaria and associated infrastructure. Beyond Phase 1, there are additional infrastructure requirements, bi-national permits and design optimization before advancing. We continue to model Phase 2 development beginning in H2/32 and Phase 3 in 2038; however, the ultimate process/design may be revised. What is clear is, despite the significant investment needed for the region, Vicuña has the ability to produce more than 700,000 tpa CuEq (100% basis), well beyond the initially conceived 70+ year mine life.
“While several process optimization initiatives at the mill and dump leach are taking place, the primary focus of the team at Caserones is further exploring the district to support higher-grade mill feed/possible future mine expansions. The focus for 2026 will be continued extension drilling of the main pit, identifying higher-grade breccia zones within Angelica and exploration around the newly acquired interest in Los Helados.”
* RBC Dominion Securities’ Greg Pardy increased his Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T) target to $28 from $23 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $24.24.
“Parex’s $750 million cash acquisition of Frontera Energy’s Colombian upstream assets will see the company become the largest independent E&P in Colombia. The transaction serves to meaningfully increase the scale of Parex’s portfolio, taking advantage of its strong balance sheet position to outbid GeoPark and get the transaction over the line,” said Mr. Pardy.
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 18, TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding bumped his Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T) target to $74 from $73 with a “hold” rating. The average is $75.33.
“Our new forecast incorporates Q4/25 results and our most recently published estimates for core holdings GWO and IGM and higher buybacks .. We acknowledge the healthy 18-per-cent potential return, and we will revisit our outlook with Q4/25 results,” he said.
“We continue to view Power Corp. as a solid defensive name with an attractive dividend yield. We are constructive on the core operating companies (Great-West and IGM). Momentum remains intact for the alternatives AUM platform. We expect buybacks to persist. Valuation is reasonable, in our view, but not sufficient for a Buy rating at this time.”
* In response to a “headline financial beat vs. NBCM and Street estimates, record FCF buoyant as cash flow harvesting continues offsetting a one-time high-cost quarter at Eagle after opportunistically mining lower grade ore to open up more stopes,” National Bank’s Don DeMarco raised his Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) target to $32 from $28 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $29.70.