Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
At least two analysts upgraded Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T) in the wake of this week’s earnings and share price weakness.
TD Securities analyst Graham Ryding raised his rating to “buy” from “hold”, believing that the recent selloff makes for an attractive entry point.
The company this week reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of C$1.36, below consensus of C$1.44.
“Despite the Q4/25 earnings miss, we view Power Corp.’s fundamentals as solid,” Mr. Ryding said in a note. “The core operating companies (GWO and IGM) are performing well (solid earnings growth and capital returns), and Power Corp. intends to lean in on buybacks. With the sell-off (13% year to date), more attractive valuation, and Power Corp. being a large cap defensive name, we are moving to a buy rating.”
While maintaining a C$74 price target, he says valuations are attractive.
“Power Corp. is currently trading at a 23.5% discount to net asset value and 10.5x P/E (4QF). This compares to a last 5 year average of 22.5% and a 1.0x premium to its last 5 year P/E average of 9.5x. We note the comparables for Power Corp. are trading at 12.0x P/E on average, a 1.5x premium to their L5Y averages,” he said.
“We model buybacks to be 1.9% of shares o/ s in 2026 ($840mm), similar to the healthy 2025 levels (1.9% or $711mm). The dividend was increased by 9% (reflecting 10% dividend increases from GWO and IGM). Management indicated they will continue to lean in on the buyback at Power Corp. given the elevated cash balance ($2.2bln as of Q4/25 compares to an average of $1.6bln over the L3Ys), intention to continue to participate in the GWO buyback, and their view of the 23.5% discount to NAV as attractive. We use a 15% discount in our target price,” he said.
Meanwhile, RBC analyst Bart Dziarski upgraded his rating to “outperform” from “sector perform” while raising his price target to C$73 from C$69.
“POW shares declined 4% yesterday primarily driven by sizable one-time items (~$0.70/share) impacting reported EPS while adjusted EPS was slightly below our forecast and consensus,” Mr. Dziarski commented in a Friday note. “We believe the sell-off was overdone and POW shares currently trade at a 21% discount to NAV with an attractive ~4% dividend yield. POW increased its dividend 9% and with $2.2 billion of cash, remains in a solid position to remain active on its normal-course issuer bid.”
ATB Cormark Capital Markets upgraded Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” following the company’s fourth quarter results. He also raised his price target to C$7 from C$5.25.
Calfrac early Thursday reported results that included adjusted EBITDA that was 21% above consensus, ATB analyst Tim Monachello noted.
Key to the upgrade, however, was guidance.
“CFW outlined an improved outlook for 2026 including 1) expectations for stronger y/y industry activity in Canada which should provide tailwinds for CFW, 2) improving margins in the US alongside a more flexible labour model that should be evident in Q1/26, and 3) expectations for its two large Argentinian fleets to be well utilized through 2026 following a relatively tepid activity period in H2/25 with replenished customer budgets and traction with new customers. While visibility to H2/26 activity levels remains somewhat speculative, we believe elevated crude prices amid Middle East supply outages have fundamentally improved CFW’s medium-term risk profile, replacing downside risk with upside potential to activity and pricing,” Mr. Monachello said.
He said the upgrade reflects “an improved near-term outlook, a more favourable macro backdrop, and a significantly improved balance sheet (1.1x net debt) following CFW’s Q4/25 refinancing. All told, we believe CFW offers a unique investment opportunity.”
Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T) delivered a fourth-quarter earnings report and outlook that had some analysts surprised by the negative stock reaction on Thursday. They fell 6.5%, well outpacing the S&P/TSX Composite’s 1.4% drop.
Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $180 million, modestly above consensus at $168 million and well above the $149 million of a year ago
Desjardins analyst Chris Li suggested the negative market reaction reflected concerns about macro headwinds that could pressure demand. Higher beef prices could also be agitating investors.
“4Q results reflect solid ongoing US Specialty Foods organic volume growth, partly offset by high beef costs,” commented Mr. Li. “Revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2026 of C$9.25–9.55b and C$870 910m is in line excluding the sale of Shaw Bakers (~C$170m revenue/C$20m EBITDA).
Meanwhile, “PBH reiterated its goal to lower leverage to the low-3s by end-2026/early-2027 through growth in EBITDA, debt reduction supported by free cash flow improvement and the sale of Shaw (reduces leverage by 0.2–0.3x). PBH is in advanced discussions to divest other non-core businesses, which could accelerate leverage reduction," Mr. Li noted.
“While beef inflation is likely to remain elevated, PBH manages the impact through pricing and cost-plus arrangements. Demand remains strong despite high beef prices. PBH’s diversified customer base helps capture consumer trade-down from mainstream retail to club channels,” he said.
Mr. Li believes Premium Brand’s valuation is inexpensive, and maintained a “buy” rating and C$120 price target.
National Bank analyst Vishal Shreedhar is less bullish. He trimmed his price target to C$108 from C$115 and reiterated a “sector perform” rating. He is assigning the stock a lower multiple, resulting in the decreased price target, and said balance sheet improvement will be key.
“Over the medium term, we believe PBH’s outlook will be supported by organic growth and EBITDA margin expansion (to 9.5% in 2026; ~50 bps higher y/y). We value PBH at 9.2x (from 9.5x; reflects heightened consumer caution) our 2027E EBITDA,” Mr. Shreedhar said.
Elsewhere, Raymond James analyst Michael Glen cut his price target to C$115 from C$125 but reiterated an “outperform” rating. He termed the fourth quarter results as “mixed”.
“2026 guidance appeared slightly below forecast when initially provided, but backing out the divestiture of the Shaw Bakeries facility, it appears to be closer to in line,” Mr. Glen commented. “We use a forward P/E multiple of 18.0x (was 20.0x) on our 2026E EPS which implies a price target of $115. We are lowering our multiple to reflect ongoing input cost uncertainty and the potential impact this has on Specialty Food Group margins. As we track through 2026, as we see the company progress on margin expansion initiatives, free cash inflects, and we see leverage return closer to the 3.0x target level, we believe our target multiple has potential to expand into or above the historical average of 21.0x.”
And Scotia analyst John Zamparo reiterated a “sector outperform” rating while cutting his price target to C$100 from C$120.
“We have some concerns about the environment for broader commodity inflation and timing it takes to pass on pricing, and believe there’s added risk to all food production businesses. PBH’s challenge has never been achieving top-line targets, but rather margins, and an array of costs growing sharply,” Mr. Zamparo said.
Desjardins analyst Benoit Poirier raised his price target on MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) to C$53 from C$51 after updating his model for the U.S. public offering and increased clarity on Canadian government awards. He is maintaining a “buy” rating.
“MDA’s US IPO should lower barriers for incremental buyers, with the upcoming SpaceX IPO further boosting sector visibility/interest. Trading at a discount to US space peers, MDA offers multiple expansion potential, and we expect a satellite constellation win outside Canada to be a catalyst. We have updated our model for the US offering while raising our 2027 estimates and introducing 2028 forecasts based on stronger conviction in the forward revenue trajectory following recent government developments,” Mr. Poirier said in a note to clients.
Ventum Capital Markets downgraded Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ-T) to “neutral” from “buy” and lowered its price target to C$4.75 from C$7 after disappointing fourth quarter results.
“Revenue of $14.4M missed both our $15.3M forecast and the Street at $15.3M, while EBITDA of just $1.0M came in well below our $2.4M estimate and Street at $2.3M. Part of the miss came from lower capitalized R&D, which improves earnings quality but does not explain the full shortfall. The bigger issue was sharp gross margin compression in Project Services, which turned negative as implementation-related investment for new VSS customers in SylogistGov collided with a sharp drop in higher-margin PS revenue in Education and Mission,” said Ventum analyst Amr Ezzat.
“While we continue to see meaningful value in the shares, we are moving to a NEUTRAL rating, reflecting limited near-term visibility on growth and margins, continued execution risk around the partner model, and a lack of clear evidence that bookings and NRR have stabilized at levels consistent with a sustained SaaS inflection. We remain constructive on the long-term direction of the business, but this quarter reinforces that SYZ is still in the messy middle of its transition rather than at the start of a clean inflection,” he said.
More to come