Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen mining equity analyst Craig Hutchison thinks the first quarter of 2026 will “mark the highest quarterly copper and gold prices on record which should support solid earnings, despite what is expected to be the softest production quarter for the year.”
In a client report released before the bell, he made “modest” metal price forecast revisions for the year while increasing his cost assumptions to reflect energy prices, “which should start to impact earnings in Q2.”
“Overall, Q1 production volumes are expected to be the softest quarter of the year, similar to 2025, due to a combination of factors including seasonality, grades, and ongoing optimization work (QB, Tucumã, Mantoverde optimization) which should start to bear fruit in the back-half of the year,” he said.
“Middle East conflict will drive higher input costs, but these costs are very manageable, with strong gold price offsets. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, oil prices increased 60 per cent, with extreme volatility driven by the resolution uncertainty. We expect higher energy costs to have modest impacts in Q1, with cost pressures building in Q2 as diesel inventories are replenished. Diesel typically represents between 5-10 per cent of costs, with open-pit operations at the higher end of that range. Most companies have factored a $60-80 per barrel oil price in their guidance assumptions, and we expect approximately a $0.02-0.05-per-pound impact on C1 costs for every $10/bbl increase in the oil price. Several companies have also factored in lower gold prices in their guidance which should help offset energy costs.
Mr. Hutchison said higher energy prices will weigh on global growth, which he emphasized is a “headwind to demand.” However, he thinks there are ”some offsetting factors including supply disruptions out of the Middle East and recent cuts to IVN’s Kamoa-Kakula mine.“
The analyst made one rating revision, downgraded Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T) to “hold” from “buy” based on valuation “following the recent share price strength, with shares now fairly valued in our view, trading close to the top end of its historical trading range.”
His target for the St. John’s-based royalty company’s shares increased to $54 from $52. The average target on the Street is $47.75, according to LSEG data.
“Altius’ business model is largely insulated from cost pressures, although higher energy prices are pressuring global growth and weighing on some metal prices which impacts Altius’ top line,” said Mr. Hutchison. “Our target price for Altius has increased to $54 from $52 following minor changes to reflect slightly higher lithium revenue assumptions.
“Altius shares are up 30 per cent year-to-date, which is among the best-performing companies in our coverage universe. We believe the recent share price strength is a combination of factors, including the timely acquisition of a lithium portfolio into a strengthening lithium price environment and stable to slightly higher potash prices triggered by supply constraints out of the Middle East. The company has also been repurchasing shares in the last few weeks of March, which is consistent with its capital returns strategy. ”
He also made “modest” changes to his target prices for several other companies in his coverage universe. They are:
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “buy”) to $16 from $17. Average: $17.23.
- Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T, “hold”) to $47 from $45. Average: $48.68.
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “hold”) to $43 from $42. Average: $42.71.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “buy”) to $44 from $45. Average: $37.62.
- Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T, “buy”) to $12 from $13. Average: $12.36.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T, “hold”) to $80 from $82. Average: $80.70.
“Capstone remains our top pick, followed by Lundin and Cameco,” he said.
Seeking further clarity from on its action plan to replace CEO Darren Entwistle when he retires at the end of June, Scotia Capital analyst Maher Yaghi lowered his rating on Telus Corp. (T-T) to “sector perform” from “sector perform” previously.
How Telus’s unexpected CEO change came about
“We are downgrading our rating on TELUS to SP from SO as the current setup remains too clouded by what-if scenarios to offset the continued high and unsustainable dividend distribution model,” he said. “Management has provided a medium-term outlook on FCF that should, if realized, materially resolve ongoing pressure on use of FCF. However, given ongoing growth pressures on Canadian telecom subscriber growth and pricing, which we discussed in a note last week, we believe a dividend cut might be required to placate the market. As we indicated previously, asset sales to reduce leverage – while helpful – do not solve the payout ratio, and waiting one to two years for this ratio to drop enough organically will likely keep market participants uncommitted to taking ownership in what we believe is an operationally well-run company. Our view on the stock could turn more constructive once we hear the incoming CEO’s vision and upcoming action plan. We have slightly adjusted our target by reducing our multiple on the stock to 7x from 7.5x given ongoing growth pressures on the telecom business.”
Mr. Yaghi reduced his target for Telus shares to $21.50 from $23, remaining above the $19.90 average on the Street.
“What could change our views? TELUS does not have a FCF generation problem,“ he added. ”Actually, it has quite healthy FCF production compared with other Canadian telcos. It does have, however, a cash commitment problem when it comes to its dividend, which has grown much faster than FCF/share. Hence, two options could be in the toolbox for the incoming CEO: Either cut the dividend (by half would be our preference) and/or material reduce opex/capex similar to what Verizon has done recently. In an environment where (1) the regulator forces operators to lease both their wireline and wireless infrastructure to competitors at rates set by the same regulator and not on a commercial basis as in the U.S., (2) any investment in network technology made by an operator provides the same advantage to its competitors, and (3) companies such as TELUS have high leverage, wouldn’t it make sense for incumbents to materially reduce capex to levels closer to those of challengers like Quebecor?
“The case for a dividend review. Fundamentally, we believe telecom stock valuation is a representation of the extra yield that these stocks pay above 10-year government bonds in relation to their payout ratios. This relationship... has very high correlation within North American telco stocks. The relationship shows that dividend yields on stocks adjust based on what investors believe a firm’s payout ratio to be. Given the linear relationship between the payout ratio and dividend yields, why not look to accelerate the return to a much lower payout ratio by reviewing the dividend, which could lead to a faster DRIP elimination and potentially the initiation of a multi-year stock buyback program?”
National Bank Financial analyst Ahmed Abdullah sees K-Bro Linen Inc. (KBL-T) possessing “meaningful upside from current levels, supported by strong free cash flow generation and a consistent dividend.”
In a client report released Friday titled Rinse & Repeat: Scaling a Clean, Contracted Compounder, he initiated coverage of the Edmonton-based laundry and linen processing company with an “outperform” recommendation, pointing to the “potential for further upside as the company executes on its roll-up strategy and drives a valuation re-rating toward high-quality outsourced service peers.”
“K-Bro’s acquisition of Stellar Mayan (June 2025) marks an inflection point as it establishes a national UK platform, materially expanding its addressable market and accelerating its shift into a larger, more fragmented geography,” said Mr. Abdullah. “Beyond M&A, it has demonstrated a strong track record of compounding, delivering 16-per-cent pro forma sales CAGR [compound annual growth rate] since 2016, with organic growth in the high-single digits and EBITDA growth outpacing revenue (high-single-digits, potentially up to 10 per cent), highlighting the embedded operating leverage in the strategy.
“This combination of consolidation and organic execution is supported by a capital-efficient model with significant latent capacity, enabling margin expansion as volumes scale. As K-Bro becomes less reliant on episodic outsourcing wins and increasingly driven by repeatable tuck-ins and internal optimization, the business transitions toward a more durable, visible growth profile that supports both earnings expansion and potential multiple re-rating.”
In justifying his bullish stance, the analyst pointed to K-Bro’s “strong” free cash flow generation, which he thinks is supported by a “highly scalable” business model with facilities currently operating at 50–60-per-cent utilization, “providing meaningful capacity for incremental growth without significant capital investment.”
“Capex intensity remains low (3–5 per cent of revenue), enabling strong free cash flow generation, with $40-million expected in 2026,“ said Mr. Abdullah. ”This has been driven by a healthy adj. EBITDA to FCF conversion profile that averaged 35 per cent historically. The business benefits from embedded pricing escalators, centralized processing efficiencies, and operating leverage, supporting margin expansion over time. Strong cash flow provides flexibility to delever post-acquisition (3.9 times peak at 2Q25 post-purchase: 2026E less than 2.5 times) while continuing to fund accretive tuck-ins and maintain consistent dividend payments ($0.10 per share monthly).“
Pointing to an “attractive risk/reward profile given valuation discount versus peers with re-rating potential,” the analyst set a target of $51 per share, pointing to an estimated total return of 50.6 per cent. The average target on the Street is $50.
“K-Bro trades at an EV/EBITDA of 6.5 times 2026E and 5.8 times 2027E, a 34-per-cent discount to peers at 9.8 times and 9.0 times,” he noted. “These multiples are below its historical average range (7–11 times) and below recent M&A multiples in the industry (7.5–8.0 times). This discount appears unwarranted given the near 19-per-cent EBITDA margins (vs. peer average at 13.5 per cent) and strong free cash flow generation; 9-per-cent FCF yield versus peers at 6 per cent. As the company executes on integration, realizes synergies, and continues to scale its UK platform, we expect the valuation gap to narrow. While execution risks remain, KBro’s improved growth profile and defensive characteristics support a multiple re-rating over time.”
While TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison thinks the fourth-quarter 2025 results from Roots Corp. (ROOT-T) were “solid,” attributing the performance to “a combination of new product, client favorites, and heightened marketing investment supporting strong DTC sales,” he lowered his rating for the retailer to “hold” from “buy” previously, seeing its shares approaching “fair value” following recent price appreciation.
“We remain constructive on Roots’ financial outlook given its improving brand momentum, supported by marketing investments and key product lines resonating with the consumer. With recent share price appreciation, we feel a monetization event is being appropriately factored. Due to the return to share price now not meeting our threshold requirements we have lowered our recommendation to HOLD,” he explained.
On Thursday, Roots reported adjusted earnings per share of 42 cents, exceeding his projection by a cent and up 2 cents from the same period a year ago.
“Management provided incremental detail on the strategic review announced earlier in March, noting that the Board is ‘pleased with the level of interest and engagement in this process’,” said Mr. Morrison. “We reiterate our view that Roots is an iconic Canadian brand with a proven ability to generate consistent, attractive FCF. We believe there is a high probability for a potential monetization event, that we believe should support a valuation multiple toward the low end of its peer group.
“Should a transaction come to fruition, we maintain our view that fair value is likely in the $4.00-$4.25/share range. Due to the limited return to our target price and liquidity volume in the name, we feel it is appropriate to revise our recommendation lower at this time. Based on a slight increase to our FCF forecast (impacting EBITDA valuation monetization price), and a roll forward in our valuation, we are increasing our target price.”
Currently the lone analyst on the Street covering the Toronto-based company, Mr. Morrison bumped his target is $4.25 from 4.
Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien lowered his rating for Blackline Safety Corp. (BLN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” in response to his agreement to be taken private by U.S. private equity firm Francisco Partners for $9 per share in cash in a deal valued at up to $850-million, seeing the proposal as “compelling given the highly uncertain macro environment.”
“We expect the deal to close,” he said. “While our long-term DCF analysis implies an intrinsic value of $10, we see the current offer (2027E EV/EBITDA of 27-28 times) as attractive amid a volatile market, driving investor support alongside the rollover shareholders. We also see limited risk of a competing bid as key peers such as MSA, Dräger, and Honeywell remain focused on their own connected device strategies or entirely different product lines. In addition, the company’s targeted sales process did not identify any alternative buyers.”
Mr. Bastien emphasized insiders are already supporting the deal, which was announced before the bell on Wednesday.
“In connection with the transaction, DAK Capital and affiliates, the Lowy Family Group, and CEO Cody Slater have entered into equity rollover agreements with Fransico Partners to exchange their BLN shares for equity in the purchaser. The 26.7 million rollover shares represent ~31% of shares outstanding. The transaction requires approval from two-thirds of shareholder votes, as well as a majority of votes excluding those held by the rollover shareholders,” he said.
The analyst’s target for Blackline shares moved to $9.38 from $10. The average is $9.48.
When AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) reports first-quarter 2026 financial results before the bell on April 14, Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho is expecting to see “steady retail flows offset by conservative alt assumptions,” but he’s forecasting a 4-per-cent dividend increase, “which should be viewed positively” by investor.
For the Toronto-based asset manager, Mr. Ho is currently projecting adjusted earnings per share of 47 cents, which is a penny lower than the same period a year ago and 3 cents under the consensus projection on the Street.
“We anticipate $143-million of retail net inflows given decent mutual fund industry momentum in 1Q,” said Mr. Ho.
“Industry trends (per SIMA) maintained positive momentum in 1Q, with long-term net inflows totalling $18.5-billion vs $11.9-billion in 4Q and $11.1-billion in 1Q25. 1Q includes the important RRSP season; however, recent market volatility might temper retail flows in 2Q to date. We remain constructive on the SMA [separately managed account] build-out trajectory (not within retail flows), with SMA/ETF AUM up 63 per cent year-over-year to $4.1-billion in 4Q, increasing further to $4.5-billion in 1Q26. Fund performance continued holding well. 53 per cent of strategies outperformed peers on a three- and five-year basis in 4Q.”
While he cut his full-year 2026 and 2027 EPS projections to $1.98 and $2.15, respectively, from $2.04 and $2.20 after taking “more conservative stance given recent uncertainties across private asset classes,” he raised his target for AGF shares by $1 to $20, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $20.05.
“We foresee a few near/medium-term positive catalysts: (1) retail net flows trending at/above industry; (2) redeployment of capital for organic growth to seed new private alt strategies and for share buybacks; (3) growth in fees/earnings from its private alt platform; and (4) M&A should be EPS-accretive,” said Mr. Ho/
Haywood Capital Markets analyst Pierre Vaillancourt thinks Blue Moon Metals Inc. (MOON-X) is “is well positioned to become a multi-mine producer of base and critical metals starting in 2027, leading to consolidated production of 60kt of CuEq production from 7 metals within five years, including a significant component of tungsten and germanium.”
In a client report released Friday, he initiated coverage of the Toronto-based company, which is developing brownfield polymetallic projects (two in Norway and 3 in the United States), with a “buy” recommendation, touting an “attractive valuation based on diverse metals mix.”
“OON has assembled a diverse portfolio of brownfield assets with a range of base, precious and critical metals. With four mines and one mill slated for production over the next four years, MOON has an aggressive development plan,” said Mr. Vaillancourt. “But reasonable development costs for modest sized brownfield mines and help from capable contractors to execute mine plans should allow for MOON to establish operations that could eventually exceed production of 60ktpa of CuEq. While the diversity and composition of the metal mix may deter some investors looking for a focused metal producer, this portfolio of mines offers multiple revenue sources, and we note the strong profitability of tungsten, and germanium-gallium.”
The analyst set a target of $15 per share. The average is $12.25.
“Production will come from copper, zinc, lead, gold, silver, germanium, gallium and tungsten from four moderate sized mines. This metals and mine diversification may take some adjustment from investors who are used to a more concentrated production base with one or two metals, but the potential for cash flow, especially from tungsten and germanium-gallium, provides a unique opportunity for Blue Moon shareholders,” he noted.
In other analyst actions:
* In response to a first-quarter beat, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his target for shares of Firan Technology Group Corp. (FTG-T) to $24 from $20 with an “outperform” rating, citing the firm’s “1) accelerating order intake; 2) record backlog; 3) attractive growth pipeline; 4) pristine balance sheet; & 5) increasing M&A optionality.” The average target is $18.50.
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar reduced his target for Toronto-based data and analytics company NowVertical Group Inc. (NOW-X) to 22 cents from 25 cents, which is the average, with a “sell” rating on lower estimates, while Ventum’s Rob Goff cut his target to 50 cents from 65 cents with a “buy” rating.
“FQ4 revenues were largely in line, reflecting sequentially stronger growth but still a year-over-year deceleration owing to persisting FX and reseller segment headwinds, while better EBITDA relative to expectations primarily reflects timing of anticipated growth investments,” Mr. Sukumar. “We view NOW’s progress in growing wallet share with large enterprise clients positively, but at nearly 3-times net leverage, we continue to see little room for error in execution and remain cautious around prospects for more rapid deleveraging in light of softer near- to medium-term revenue trends and a more aggressive investment outlook.”
* Barclays analyst Manav Patnaik lowered his Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N, TRI-T) target by US$40 to US$170 with an “overweight” rating. The average target on the Street is US$130.86.