Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Equity analysts at National Bank continue to see a “favourable” market backdrop for precious metal prices through the remainder of the year with several key drivers remaining presence, including “rising levels of sovereign debt, persistent inflation, USD volatility, geopolitical tensions and strong physical demand from Central Banks/stablecoins.”
In a client report released before the bell, they trimmed their gold price assumption for 2026 to US$5,000 per ounce from US$5,200 previously with their silver projection dipping to US$80 per ounce from US$90. They reaffirmed their long-term estimates of US$3,200 and US$42, respectively.
“While not anticipated to be that material of an impact on Q1/26 financial results, we are modeling some degree of cost inflation throughout the remainder of the year to account for ongoing unrest in the Middle East. Names with more exposure to these oil price shocks are larger open pit mining operations,” they said. “Regional exposure to areas with potential for supply shortages (SE Asia, Eastern Africa and Australia) creates the greatest uncertainty in near-term with respect to operational outlooks.”
“Commodity price and share price volatility throughout the quarter presented an opportunity for select companies to be more aggressive on discretionary share buybacks. In particular, we see DPM, EDV, IMG, TXG and WDO, among others, and expect to see more positive updates on capital returns across our coverage throughout Q1 reporting.”
Alongside the changes to their price deck, the analysts made one rating revision with Shane Nagle downgrading Newmont Corp. (NEM-N) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a US$130 target, down from US$140, citing a “cautious” outlook and expecting an “increase to cost guidance and M&A risk partially offset by increasing pace of share buybacks.” The average target on the Street is US$154.56, according to LSEG data.
The analysts also made a large number of adjustments to target prices across their coverage universe. For senior producers, their changes are:
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “outperform”) to $345 from $330. Average: $356.25.
- Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T, “outperform”) to $72.50 from $75. Average: $81.94.
- B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T, “outperform”) to $10 from $10.25. Average: $9.56.
- Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T, “outperform”) to $113 from $93. Average: $102.26.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) to $57.50 from $60. Average: $61.66.
Kinross was named to the firm’s “top picks” list on a “valuation/FCF basis” along with Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T, “outperform and $39 target from $36), Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-T, “outperform” and $116), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD-Q, “outperform” and US$340 from US$350) and Versamet Royalties Corp. (VMET-T, “outperform” and $21).
From a “growth outlook” perspective, their “top picks” are: Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T, “outperform” and $87 from $88), Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T, “outperform” and $28) and Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T, “outperform” and $19 from $16).
“Overall, with respect to Q1/26 reporting, based on material differences between our estimates and Consensus, pending catalysts or analyst views, we are constructive on ARTG, EQX and K and cautious on ARIS, FVI, NEM and OGC. Our estimates for the majority of the silver producers are below Consensus, with Q1 anticipated to be one of the weakest quarters of the year for many companies, with corporate/asset transactions clouding quarterly results for CDE and HL.”
“Despite reductions to near-term commodity prices, targets for some growth-oriented companies remained unchanged (HSTR, KNT and OLA) or moved incrementally higher (AUGO, DPM, EDV, MAU and OMG) as we rolled forward a quarter with NTM EBITDA estimates concurrently rising.”
Stifel analyst Ian Gillies thinks the first quarter of 2026 for Canadian industrial companies will prove to be “not reflective of the current operating environment.”
Instead, he thinks “what really matters is how companies may deal with customer hesitation and cost inflation.”
“A dramatic change in leadership has occurred in our coverage with ‘HALO’ [heavy asset, low obsolescence] stocks broadly outperforming what has traditionally worked (low capital intensity and/or fast growth),” said Mr. Gillies in a report titled The King is Dead, Long Live the King.
“We think this trend will remain in place until there is better certainty around AI impacts on low capital intensity businesses. The stock that best fits in the ‘HALO’ theme, but has been sold off since 4Q25 results, is BDGI. We continue to have a very bullish stance on the stock and would be adding aggressively at these levels. The other stock that is out of favour and sits outside of the “HALO” bucket is WSP, who we think will inevitably be a winner through this technology transition. Key investments themes such as utility and power spending have fallen to the background with recent geopolitical news, and we would be using this period as an opportunity to continuing to add to stocks that have underperformed such as ATRL, BDGI and WSP."
Ahead of earnings season in the space, Mr. Gillies emphasized average return in his coverage was 8 per cen, but those gains were “dominated by four SMID cap companies that fit well within the ‘HALO’ theme as AI risk continues to challenge professional services businesses such as engineering (which were down 9.3 per cent on average in 1Q26).”
“We are constructive on DBM and NEO results heading in 1Q26E reporting, as we believe beat and raises are possible. We are concerned about ATRL’s 1Q26 consensus EBITDA forecast, but believe the full-year outlook is well positioned,” he added.
The analyst named three stocks to own in the near term:
* Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) with a “buy” rating and $82 target, up from $81. The average is $79.21.
Analyst: “Our best idea in our coverage. If we fast-forward 12-months, our view is that the company will have disproven the narrative that it is increasing its truck build program into the peak of the market. We believe T&D activity, data center and other large projects in the U.S. provide a strong demand backdrop that will allow for very strong margin expansion in 2H26E. At 15.0 times 2027 estimated P/E, this is an attractive entry point, in our view, given that we believe a fair value multiple is 20.0 times and our NAV is $82.81.”
* WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T) with a “buy” rating and $320 target (unchanged). Average: $310.
Analyst: “This BUY thesis could take longer to play out as the company works through the negative AI narrative that its business will be harmed. In our view, this is a best in class operator that stands to benefit from AI through higher employee products and back office cost realizations. This should help WSP achieve its 20-per-cent EBITDA margin target in 2027E and its longer-term goal of 22 per cent. We believe WSP has a ‘blue chip’ management team while the stock offers a discounted 2027E P/E of 17.1 times P/E.“
* Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) with a “buy” rating and $55 target (unchanged). Average: $44.86.
Analyst: “This stock has worked year-to-date, increasing 56 per cent, and we acknowledge the return profile is skinnier from here. With that said, the bid environment in Canada for large projects is higher, which we believe could lead to a string of large contract wins for Bird. This would help solidify 8-12-per-cent organic growth past the end of its current business plan in 2027E. The valuation remains inexpensive at 14.1 times P/E in relation to its return profile and peers.”
Mr. Gillies’s other target adjustments are:
- Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T, “buy”) to $51 from $49.50. Average: $49.63.
- Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T, “hold”) to $44.50 from $44. Average: $46.13.
- AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T, “buy”) to $114 from $113. Average: $119.14.
- Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T, “buy”) to $12 from $11.50. Average: $11.83.
- Neo Performance Materials Inc. (NEO-T, “buy”) to $26 from $25.50. Average: $28.57.
- Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “buy”) to $160 from $154. Average: $162.11.
Elsewhere, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk cut his AtkinsRéalis target to $116 from $121 with a “buy” rating and raised his target for Bird Construction to $50 from $37 with a “buy” recommendation.
“We expect the group to produce 11-per-cent year-over-year EPS growth in Q1/2026, led by Aecon and WSP,” said Mr. Lynk. “We are in line with consensus on most E&Cs under coverage less ATRL, where we see some downside to consensus estimates. Key EPS drivers in the quarter include record/near-record backlogs, inorganic contributions, and margin improvement initiatives.
“The macro remains supportive: Year-to-date civil construction starts dropped 3 per cent through February but remained strong in water/sewage (up 17 per cent) and electric power (up 7 per cent). Airport (down 70 per cent), bridge (down 10 per cent), and road (down 6 per cent) were offsets. Non-residential building starts increased 80 per cent year-over-year through February on data centre strength.”
In a client report released before the bell previewing first-quarter earnings season for critical minerals companies titled Shock, Rally, Repeat, National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has reinforced the strategic role of nuclear power (and uranium) alongside the building data centre demand.
“During Q1/26, uranium spot prices strengthened quarter-over-quarter, averaging US$86.70/lb versus US$78.30/lb in Q4/25, and currently sit at $87.00/lb, off the January high of $101.50/lb,” he noted. “Long-term prices also moved higher, ending Q1/26 at $93.00/lb from $86.00/lb in Q4/25, reinforcing the constructive long-term outlook and improving term-contracting backdrop.
“The move in spot was driven largely by heavy buying from Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which briefly pushed prices above $100/lb before easing. Spot activity has since slowed as buyers and sellers assess the Iran conflict and evolving U.S. policy signals. In contrast, term-market activity has continued to improve, with more utilities stepping back in. We remain bullish on uranium’s long-term fundamentals. While the market looks relatively balanced near term, we expect prices to remain supported by improving utility contracting, persistent geopolitical and supply-security concerns, and the need to incentivize new production as secondary supply declines. We have modestly increased our near-term price outlook, while leaving our medium- and long-term uranium price unchanged at US$85/lb.”
From an investing perspective, Mr. Sidibé continues to be focused on “must-run assets,” pointing to Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) plus Athabasca developers Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T) and Nexgen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) for value.
“Higher-cost ISR names and smaller U.S. producers remain more tactical beta vehicles than core holdings,” he added.
For lithium, he predicts prices will “stay elevated in 2026 before easing toward incentive levels.”
“Lithium prices rallied in Q1/26 on delayed restarts and curtailments in Jiangxi, Zimbabwe’s concentrate export ban, and continued strength in BESS/ESS demand,” he said. “Spodumene prices rose 92 per cent quarter-over-quarter on average, while lithium carbonate increased 72 per cent, to US$2,004/t SC6% and US$21,418/t LCE, respectively. We have updated our model accordingly, lifting demand by 10 per cent over the next decade, largely on stronger ESS demand. On the supply side, while we partially reflect Chinese curtailments and the Zimbabwe ban, we have also incorporated restarts, expansions, and greenfield projects that are now economic at current prices, driving a 7-per-cent supply increase over the same period. Overall, we continue to forecast deficits from 2026 onward, with prices staying elevated through 2026 (up approximately 30 per cent vs. prior forecast) before easing toward our unchanged long-term incentive price of US$18,500/t LCE by decade and as new supply comes online.
“Lithium 2026 Playbook Favours Brines. As we have highlighted previously, we still expect another year of volatility, driven by critical-mineral policy, government intervention, rising BESS and EV demand, and recurring headlines around Chinese supply and trade restrictions. At current price levels, that volatility should continue to favour producers already generating, or nearing, positive FCF, including LAR.”
With changes to his forecast for both uranium and lithium, Mr. Sidibé made several target price adjustments to stocks that he covers. They are:
- American Lithium Corp. (LI-X, “sector perform”) to 70 cents from 95 cents. The average is 70 cents.
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “outperform”) to $175 from $170. Average: $171.57.
- Denison Mines Corp. (DML-T, “outperform”) to $6.50 from $6. Average: $6.37.
- Lithium Argentina AG (LAR-N/LAR-T, “outperform”) to US$12 from US$9.50. Average: US$10.78.
- Nexgen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T, “outperform”) to $20 from $19. Average: $21.83.
Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young expects “decent” first-quarter results from Canadian life insurance companies, projecting core earnings per share growth of 11 per cent year-over-year on average.
“However, once again we are forecasting reported EPS to be below core EPS for the group, and we would expect the market to reward cleaner results,” he added.
“Otherwise, we’ll be watching for momentum and commentary on key international businesses (eg Empower, Europe and CRS for GWO; U.S. life and dealer services for IAG; Asia and US life for MFC; and Asia and U.S. group for SLF), capital allocation priorities (eg acquisitions vs buybacks as well as how to measure excess capital), and how core/base/underlying ROEs are trending relative to each lifeco’s target.
In a client note released Friday, Mr. Young said macroeconomic headwinds continue to exist, but he sees “concerns tempering.”
He noted: “(1) Lower than assumed returns for alt assets may continue; however, we expect improvements quarter-over-quarter. (2) While there could be credit bumps quarter to quarter, we are expecting a benign credit environment. We expect lifeco exposures to private credit to continue to be topical (see our report here). (3) The positive view of lifeco international exposure turned sour in 2025 (tariff noise); however, we believe this sentiment begins to shift back to being a positive in 2026. (4) We don’t see any further disruptions from a macro or regulatory standpoint outside of the impact from potential Medicaid funding cuts (impacts SLF) and regulatory changes in the Hong Kong MPF market (impacts SLF/MFC).”
Mr. Young raised his targets for Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T, “hold”) to $71 from $68 and IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T, “hold”) to $174 from $173. The averages on the Street are $69.33 and $178.33, respectively.
He maintained his targets for top pick Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T, “buy”) at $101 and Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T, “buy”) at $58. The averages are $98 and $55.71, respectively.
Citing “improving fundamentals and lagging performance,” TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil raised Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc. (RGSI-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“We believe the stock is pricing in potential weakness later this year resulting from likely secondaries following the expiry of Brookfield’s lockup on October 15, 2026 and is missing the fundamental improvement occurring in the business. These prevailing themes present an opportunity for us to get more constructive on this name,” he said.
The analyst made the move ahead of earnings season for Canadian energy infrastructure companies, calling Rockpoint “a notable positive estimate revision story in our coverage.”
‘Since we initiated coverage on November 10, 2025, our FY2027 EBITDA estimate has increased by 7.4 per cent, well above the peer average which has featured an average CY2026 EBITDA decline of 2.5 per cent (range: a loss of 7.5 per cent to up 0.3 per cent) after normalizing for acquisitions,“ he explained. ”Importantly, we see the potential for positive estimate revisions given the collapse in natural gas price fundamentals year-to-date and the potential for optimization-related upside if market dislocations present themselves. Longer-term, Canadian egress expansions are limited, E&Ps continue to pursue modest production growth and the potential emergence of a ‘Super El Nino’ in the 2026/27 winter season may negatively impact winter seasonal natural gas demand and prolong a recovery in this market (positive for storage).
“Prevailing Valuation Screens Attractive in a Premium Space: Interest in the IPO exceeded our expectations, reflecting Rockpoint’s pure-play gas storage exposure, favourable macro backdrop, high regulatory barriers, visible embedded growth via contract resets to prevailing storage rates, attractive yield, and an increasingly investment-grade customer mix. While early trading was strong, the stock is now only up 8.5 per cent since our November 10, 2025 initiation, materially lagging peers, which are up 14.5 per cent on average (range: 7.2-20.6 per cent). In this context, we note that Rockpoint’s FY2027 EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.4 times is virtually unchanged since our initiation, whereas peer average CY2026 EV/EBITDA ratios have expanded by an average of 1.4 times. In this context, Rockpoint’s valuation has become increasingly attractive relative to peers.”
Mr. MacNeil’s target for Rockpoint shares remains $32. The average is $31.17.
National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé sees Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE-T) “at an inflection point” following its recent accretive deal for the Casa Berardi gold project in Quebec from Hecla Mining Co. for up to US$593-million, believing the acquisition “materially improves jurisdictional mix, lifts consolidated production and free cash flow, and adds meaningful medium-term optimization and exploration upside.”
In a client report titled More Ounces, More Options with Casa Berardi, he initiated coverage of the Vancouver-based miner with an “outperform” rating, touting the “attractive” terms of the move.
“The asset was acquired at a valuation of below comparable North American producer multiples,” said Mr. Sidibé. “In our view, the transaction is 25-per-cent accretive to NAV, 41 per cent to production, 38 per cent to EBITDA, and 15 per cent to free cash flow at our price deck, while the Franco-Nevada stream financing also provides external validation of the asset’s underlying value and optionality.
“A better jurisdictional profile should support a higher valuation. With Casa Berardi now accounting for 28 per cent of our NAV and adding exposure to Québec, which ranks 22nd out of 82 jurisdictions on the 2024 Fraser Institute Investment Attractiveness Index versus Burkina Faso at 67th, we believe the pro forma company should re-rate higher from its historical trading range of 0.2-0.5 times P/NAV previously, weighed down by the Burkina Faso risk. That shift is already starting to show, with the multiple moving to 0.59 times (NBCM) from 0.43x (consensus) pre-transaction.”
The analyst emphasized the company’s 85-per-cent-owned Bomboré gold mine, with the government of Burkina Faso owning the remaining stake, “remains the foundation of the story. That project continues to be the principal source of Orezone’s production growth, representing more than 110 per cent of the analyst’s estimated 200-per-cent growth by 2028 (from 2025).
“The principal pushback to our positive view is straightforward, despite the clear benefit of adding Casa Berardi, Orezone will remain meaningfully exposed to Burkina Faso through Bomboré,” he acknowleded. “While the extreme security risks in the region are always associated with Burkina, these risks are typically more concentrated in the northern and eastern regions of the country, whereas the Bomboré asset is located 85 km east of the capital city of Ouagadougou which is located in the centre region. We account for this heightened security risk in our DCF model by applying a 10-per-cent discount rate, in line with how we value assets held by Endeavour Mining in our model. This represents a discount of C$328 million or $0.48/sh vs. our estimate using a 5-per-centdiscount rate. However, the other risk we focus mostly on as it relates to Bomboré, and which is not reflected in our model is related to the recently announced interest of the Government of Burkina Faso to increase its interest in the Kiaka mine owned by West African Resources by an additional 25 per cent from its current stake of 15 per cent.
“While the market initially viewed the announcement as raising expropriation concerns, we think it is better understood as a negotiation between the Burkina Faso government and West African Resources that could result in an increase in state ownership in exchange for consideration. We had previously checked with other covered companies operating in Burkina Faso, and none indicated that the government had approached them on a similar basis, which Orezone has also confirmed. Our understanding is that the government’s focus has been on newer assets and, with Bomboré only in its fourth year of production, we do not view the risk of potential government interest as immaterial. That said, we do not currently view this as outright expropriation risk, as any change in ownership interest would likely come with compensation.”
Mr. Sidibé set a target of $3.75 per share, pointing to an estimated total return of 47.6 per cent. The average on the Street is $3.67.
“Versus peers with similar production profiles, Orezone trades at a discount on both a P/NAV and EV/2026 EBITDA basis with P/NAV of 0.59 times and EV/EBITDA 2026 of 2.0 times, sitting below the group weighted averages of 0.83 times and 4.0 times, respectively, across both valuation metrics, which we view in the context of its smaller scale and lower relative market capitalization,” he said. “While 2026 production is toward the bottom of the peer group, consistent with its positioning, the company distinguishes itself through a 2026 FCF yield of 26 per cent that ranks near the top of the group and above the weighted average of the selected peer group of 15 per cent, suggesting stronger near-term cash generation than implied by its discounted valuation.”
In other analyst actions:
* ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather moved his Altus Group Ltd. (AIF-T) target to $58 from $54 with an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $52.80.
“This week, we attended the Altus Connect user conference in Los Angeles. Clients we spoke with were impressed by the pace of product innovation as new features and releases drive meaningful efficiency and capture more workflows within the system. That said, most customers we spoke with were early in the journey of adopting Argus Intelligence’s more advanced capabilities. We think this setup positions the firm for accelerated upsell momentum in the years ahead and derisks the pathway to HSD growth outlined at the investor day,” said Mr. Fairweather.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Zachary Weisbrod initiated coverage of Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp. (AI-T) with a “buy” rating and $13.50 target. The average on the Street is $13.12.
“Our investment thesis is based on: a high-quality mortgage portfolio with significant exposure to first mortgages and conservative loan-to-value (LTV) ratios; a compelling yield relative to risk-free rates; dominant exposure to the GTA; and an experienced management team,” he said.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen predicts CAE Inc.’s (CAE-T) transformation will “accelerate in fiscal 2027, but patience will be required.” He raised his target to $53 from $52 with an “outperform” rating ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2026 next month.
“Although CAE’s Civil segment is facing some near-to-medium-term market headwinds, we remain bullish on Civil segment growth over the longer term with CAE well positioned as the global leader in pilot training,” said Mr. Doerksen. “With global defence spending on the rise and CAE’s positioning as Canada’s largest domestic defence company, we expect outsized growth (and ongoing margin improvement) to support earnings growth for CAE over an extended period. Most importantly, the company is taking concrete actions to optimize its portfolio of businesses, to improve Civil training margins and to drive better returns on capital and free cash flow generation. CAE will provide further details of its transformation as well as longer-term financial targets with the Q4 report.”
* ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray increased his targets for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) to $150 from $146 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $155.16.
“The company delivered better-than-expected volume growth in Q1/26, driven by grain and intermodal, with our EPS estimate of $1.83 remaining slightly above consensus,” he said. “A challenging outlook for several core freight types keeps us neutral on CN, particularly with valuations expanding in early 2026 in response to increasingly encouraging macro data, limiting near-term upside,” he said.
Mr. Murray’s target for peer Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP-T) moved to $130, exceeding the $126.62 average from $127 with an “outperform” rating.
“Despite delivering better-than-expected volumes, we are lowering ATB estimates to better reflect FX/mix/fuel-based pressures on yield and margins. While volume conditions remain unbalanced and reinforce a challenging backdrop, strong grain volumes, synergy realization, and improving execution remain supportive of low to mid-teens EPS growth in 2026, and we continue to see value in CPKC at current levels, particularly on a relative basis,” he said.
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar expects Maple Leaf Foods Inc.’s (MFI-T) momentum to continue when it reports first-quarter results on May 7 and expects “strong” earnings growth through the remainder of the year, leading him to raise his target for its shares to $35, matching the average of his peers, from $34 with an “outperform” rating.
“We believe that MFI has opportunity to improve profitability (benefits from Fuel for Growth initiative, etc.), and operate amongst the highest EBITDA margin within branded protein peers, in conjunction with mid-single digit top line growth,” said Mr. Shreedhar. “We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution and commodity volatility. In our view, valuation can re-rate higher if MFI demonstrates stable sales growth and EBITDA margin improvement over time. A key investor concern is margin volatility due to commodity inflation. Encouragingly, our proprietary index of select pork cuts suggests input costs have sequentially improved.”
* Coming off research restriction following Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.’s (NOU-T) recently completed equity public offering of US$96.5-million as part of a broader equity raise of US$309.5-million to support the development of the Phase-2 Matawinie mine, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé trimmed his target for its shares to $4.50 from $4.75, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.89.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland bumped his TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) target to $61.50 from $61 with a “strong buy” rating, while TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding increased his target to $63 from $60 with a “buy” rating. The average is $61.25.
“We are updating our TMX Group Limited model to reflect stronger market-driven revenue in 1Q26,” said Mr. Boland. “TMX trading and equity financing statistics point to a solid quarter for transactional revenue, supported by robust activity across both equity trading and derivatives. Equity markets remained active, with volumes and value traded up double-digits year-over-year. Derivatives activity also stepped up, with MX volumes reaching multi-year highs amid elevated volatility, supporting sequential revenue growth in the segment.
“Capital formation remained healthy, with financing activity up materially year-over-year across both value and volume, while IPO activity rebounded through the quarter. Activity moderated modestly relative to the elevated levels seen in 4Q25, but remains supportive of the near-term outlook.”