Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
As second-quarter earnings season for Canada’s banks approaches, National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine warns betting against the sector has been “unwise” with the group “consistently beating expectations over the past two years” and their stocks jumping 13 per cent thus far in 2026, outperforming the S&P/TSX by 5.5 per cent during that period and 8 per cent since the last reporting period.
“Trading at 14 times on forward EPS, the group is priced for positive EPS surprises/revisions,” he added. “Barring a margin or credit surprise, the onus falls on the Capital Markets to deliver this outcome, which isn’t impossible considering several favourable market conditions.
“Our top picks are RY and TD, though our bias ahead of the quarter is tilted towards the latter. We believe continued turnaround of its Canadian P&C segment performance, combined with a potentially more bullish outlook for U.S. loan growth could be rewarded by the market. The U.S. loan growth factor would also be supportive of BMO, considering the importance of its U.S. P&C segment’s top-line expansion towards achieving the 12-per-cent ROE mark sometime in 2027.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Dechaine increased his estimates across te sector to reflect stronger-than-forecast buyback activity, higher Wealth Management assets under management due to market movements as well as “modest” revisions to trading revenue.
He also predicted the group could positively adjust their guidance for credit, while margin performance could “flatten.”
“In our recent report on credit, we suggested that banks could need to record above average performing provisions during Q2/26,” he said. “Discussions with banks downplay this risk. However, what is more important is the outlook beyond Q2/26, which could extend the ‘higher for longer” impaired PCL time horizon. Several banks have suggested that lower PCLs [provisions for credit losses] will start during H2/26, though we believe this guidance will be deferred.
“Margins have been on an upward trajectory for eight consecutive quarters. Spreads could flatten this quarter due to seasonality (e.g., lower card balances, declining cash balances in deposit accounts). Beyond Q2/26, banks have been guiding to a positive NIM trajectory, reflecting higher reinvestment rates, a favourable deposit origination mix and widening mortgage spreads. The latter two elements could become vulnerable to competitive factors, which will likely be discussed on earnings calls.”
Mr. Dechaine also believes the banks’ Capital Markets businesses, which have been a “a big driver of sector ROEs and positive EPS revisions over the past two years,” will “need to surprise once again to offset potential growth headwinds from flatter margins and stubbornly high impaired PCLs, for example.”
With his adjusted forecasts, he made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in the sector. They are:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “sector perform”) to $223 from $205. The average on the Street is $210.97, according to LSEG data.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “sector perform”) to $106 from $100. Average: $108.79.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “sector perform”) to $152 from $150. Average: $150.72.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “outperform”) to $271 from $257. Average: $255.05.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “outperform”) to $157 from $146. Average: $144.74.
Mr. Dechaine kept a $120 target for shares of EQB Inc. (EQB-T, “sector perform”), which falls below the $123.14 average.
RBC Dominion Securities’ Irene Nattel thinks the first-quarter earnings report from Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) was “consistent with broader retail trends: consumers are discerning, value-oriented, and leaning into essentials; and visibility is clouded by the macro backdrop and related impact on wallets, sentiment, and supply chain costs.”
Shares of the retail giant slid 4.1 per cent on Thursday after its flagship Canadian Tire stores reported weaker-than-expected same-store sales, which the analyst says proves a “thesis underpinned by evidence of resilient, albeit cautious consumer trend.”
Despite the shortfall, which she attributed largely to weather, Ms. Nattel thinks the quarterly results “underscore the resiliency of the offering.”
“Q1 CTR SSS down 2.3 per cent broke the streak of 5 consecutive quarters of acceleration, largely reflecting weather (prolonged winter, late spring) lapping a tough Q1/25 comp (up 4.7 per cent boosted by Buy Canadian sentiment and favourable weather),” said Ms. Nattel. “That said, results continue to underscore the resiliency of the business, notably reflecting: i) good/better/best product tiers with increased focus on products priced below $50 (more than 50 per cent of CTR sales); ii) multi-category assortment at CTR with automotive and fixing representing 27 per cent and 16 per cent of CTR sales; iii) CTR as destination for seasonal categories (21 per cent of CTR sales); iv) strong owned brands penetration (37 per cent of annual retail sales, stable year-over-year) that provides consumers with proprietary offerings at exceptional value. Fixing division was the standout (tool storage, organization, home repair/maintenance all up), while Seasonal & Garden experienced the largest decline (snow blowers, patio furniture) given weather comps. The gap between essential and discretionary sales performance is narrowing; spend per basket was up despite fewer units and more deeply discounted items. CTR’s data-driven initiatives around offering/promotional effectiveness resonating with Canadians, while simultaneously delivering strong and better-than-expected gross margin $$ and margins.”
Emphasizing spending “remains resilient,” pointing to RBC card data-measured core retail sales (excluding gas stations) rising 1 per cent in April, Ms. Nattel thinks there is ‘evidence that households are absorbing higher energy costs rather than reallocating budgets, and with a gradually improving labour market supportive of the outlook."
Acknowledging investor sentiment will ”likely to remain cautious,” she reiterated her “constructive” stance on Canadian Tire shares, believing its “valuation understates strong positioning and solid profitability.”
Keeping a “outperform” rating, Ms. Nattel cut her target to $216 from $220. The average is $201.35.
Elsewhere, other analyst revisions include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $205 from $211 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Consumers are noted be resilient, discerning and value driven. CTC believes it is gaining share of lower income customers, while higher income customers are also increasing spending. (2) CTC has suggested long-term annual retail sales growth target of 3-5 per cent (NBCM models 3-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] between 2025-2028E; adj. for extra week in 2025); and earnings growth ahead of that (NBCM models retail EPS CAGR of 13 per cent year-over-year). (3) Notably, Q2/26 quarter-to-date trends are slow (due to weather and patriotic purchases last year; 2/3’rds of quarter left). H2/26 may see de-stocking given heightened dealer inventory. (4) 2026 SG&A should benefit from run-rate savings of $100-million, which we view to be achievable. (5) Our EPS estimates are revised lower (dealer destocking, higher SG&A and interest, and lower gross margin, etc.): 2026 is $15.33 from $15.94 and 2027E is $16.83 from $17.57,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $200 from $205 with a “hold” rating.
“We summarize Q1/26 results as mixed. On the positive, Q1/26 results were in line, inclusive of strong Retail GM/encouraging SG&A progress aided by True North initiatives. On the negative, unfavorable weather, a slight inventory build and promotional intensity modestly temper our go-forward outlook - a key catalyst in our view as accelerating CTR Retail growth may be delayed as a result,” said Mr. Morrison.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $200 from $203 with a “buy” rating.
“While True North initiatives are expected to support solid Retail operating margins despite rising cost pressures and investments to drive value, top-line results are temporarily constrained by tough yoy comps (weather, patriotic buying etc) and ongoing macro uncertainty. We expect this to keep near-term valuation rangebound. There is potential for improvement in 2H from an acceleration in CTR’s top line, Retail SG&A leverage and Financial Services earnings growth (lapping SG&A investments),” said Mr. Li.
In a client report titled Good Things Come to Those Who Wait, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman says Stantec Inc. (STN-T) is likely to see organic growth “reaccelerate through the year as management described larger projects have longer ramp periods.”
“End-market demand remains strong in all regions, particularly Global where outperformance seems sustainable supported by Water and Germany; and margins continue to surprise to the upside,” he added.
On Wednesday, the Edmonton-based engineering and design firm reported a 1.5-per-cent beat to adjusted EBITDA supported by higher margins of 16.9 per cent (versus the Street’s expectation of 16.5 per cent), which offsetting narrowly lower-than-anticipated revenue. It maintained its full-year organic growth guidance in the mid-to-high-single-digits range and “expects organic growth to accelerate through the year as larger projects ramp up (similar to commentary from WSP).”
That lack of change to its guidance proved to be a cause of concern for investors on Thursday, causing a 6.6-per-cent drop in its share price as broader worries about the engineering and construction sector intensify globally.
“We left our 2026/2027 estimates largely unchanged, but reduced our valuation multiple to 13.25 times EV/EBITDA (from 14 times), a parity multiple with WSP,” said Mr. Goldman.
“More near-term M&A optionality was one of the differentiators in the STN story, but with seller expectations remaining elevated and private valuations having not reset like their public counterparts, we see that as lower probability. E&C valuations have fully round-tripped to 2019 levels, wiping out five years of gains, due to AI fears. At this point, we view the buyback as an attractive use of capital for all the E&Cs, and STN management said the option is ‘becoming increasingly hard to ignore.’”
Reiterating his “sector outperform” rating, Mr. Goldman trimmed his target to $138 from $146. The average target is $160.88.
“STN shares are trading at 9.9 times EV/EBITDA on our 2027 estimates,” he concluded. “If we had told you a year ago that there was an opportunity to buy a scale player with a leading E&C franchise growing at a double-digits clip for less than 10 times, you would have thought we were joking.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $132 from $158 with a “buy” rating.
“We lowered our target multiple (modest expansion still assumed), as we do not expect meaningful re-rating near term, with investors focused on AI disruption risk. While we see AI as a net positive, few near-term catalysts disprove bear views. Still, we remain constructive on STN and view 2026 as supportive. We maintain our Buy rating and see healthy upside, but
some AI-driven volatility likely," said Mr. Tupholme.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $171 from $178 with a “buy” rating.
“While we are modestly lowering our multiples to reflect the sector-wide valuation de-rating, we view STN’s organic growth slowdown as temporary rather than structural, driven by transitory factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs. Encouragingly, backlog grew 3.7 per cent organically sequentially, including 3.3 per cent in the U.S., with larger projects set to ramp and notified awards still outside the backlog. We expect growth to improve, providing the key catalyst for STN shares to re-rate,” said Mr. Poirier.
Following Thursday’s release of its first-quarter results, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) provides the “best downside protection in engineering, backed by fortress balance sheet and non-AI disruptable nuclear business.”
“At the current share price, applying our 25-times multiple to our 2027 estimated nuclear EBITDA implies ATRL’s engineering business is valued at just 5.1 times, a 50-per-cent discount to STN and WSP,” he said. “We are encouraged by management’s materially stepped-up buyback activity in March, April and May after being inactive in February, deploying $170-million. This creates an attractive asymmetric setup, with buyback support in place while investors await the OPG/Bruce reactor decision in 2H, plus potential M&A upside.”
Shares of the Montreal-based firm, formerly known as SNC-Lavalin, rose 2.2 per cent on Thursday reported revenue for the quarter of $2.998-billion, exceeding both Mr. Poirier’s $2.785-billion estimate and the consensus of $2.754-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents was 5 cents higher than the projection of both the analyst an Street as its Nuclear business is “shining internationally.”
“International commercial momentum is building in the nuclear segment, with management highlighting an MOU with Turkey Nuclear Energy Company,” said Mr. Poirier. “Meanwhile, the Polish government is expected to decide on its second largescale plant in 2027, with current assumptions indicating interest in the CANDU EC-6 reactor. On the nuclear side, we raised outer-year revenue estimates to $2.6-billion in 2026 and $2.8-billion in 2027, implying a 10-per-cent organic CAGR.
“Softer U.S. and Middle East should keep growth weighted in 2H. On the Engineering Services side, 1Q weakness reflected lower U.S. federal emergency response work and the reprioritization and wind-down of higher-margin Middle East projects. Meanwhile, Canada and the UK were the bright spots in 1Q, and management said both regions should continue to see growth through the year. We forecast margins to improve sequentially in 2Q to 12.3 per cent and to 13.5 per cent in 2H.”
Maintaining his “buy” rating, Mr. Poirier raised his target for the company’s shares by $1 to $131. The average is $117.37.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $117 from $127 with a “buy” rating
“ATRL remains our top pick,” he said. “We like its nuclear exposure and view MONARK as well positioned for Ontario new builds. We see an H2/26 nuclear tech. decision in Ontario as a re-rating catalyst. Also, we believe the 2026 Nuclear revenue guide could be conservative, given Q1/26 growth of up 37 per cent year-over-year vs. vs. FY2026 guide of up 9 per cent year-over-year. ESR organic growth is strong and FY2026 ESR margin expansion remains intact.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to Thursday’s premarket announcement of a deal to be acquired by Elemental Royalty Corp. (ELE-T), Raymond James’ Craig Stanley moved Vizsla Royalties Corp. (VROY-X) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $3.90 target, down from $5.25 and below the $4.20 average.
“Though [Vizsla’s 100-per-cent-owned Panuco Project in Sinaloa, Mexico] is an exceptional asset, we do not expect a higher bid given the valuation plus uncertainty in permitting and security.
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien raised his Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) target to $60 from $54 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $48.57.
“We reaffirm our Outperform rating on Bird Construction on the back of solid 1Q26 results and a strengthening growth outlook. For proof consider that BDT announced earlier today it would lead the construction of Bell AI Fabric’s 300 MW data centre in Sherwood, Saskatchewan, further boosting its record backlog and accelerating demand across its buildings, industrial and infrastructure segments. With revenue growth expected to accelerate through 2027, we are raising our target price on the stock to $60,” said Mr. Bastien.
* Raymond James’ Daniel Magder moved Boralex Inc. (BLX-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $37.25 target, down from $38 and above the $36 average.
“With the upcoming shareholder vote, which we anticipate will approve the transaction, BLX is moving towards closing its take-private transaction with Brookfield Renewables (Brookfield) and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) for cash consideration of $37.25 per share. Post vote and court approval of the transaction, the focus will be on obtaining regulatory approvals as the company marches towards a 4Q26 closing. As such, we are reducing our target to $37.25/sh and moving our recommendation to a Market Perform rating,” said Mr. Magder.
* With his ”confidence in [its] outlook reaffirmed” with its first-quarter release, National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn raised his Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) target to US$60 from US$58 with an “outperform” rating, while RBC’s Bart Dziarski cut his target to $61 from $63 with an “outperform” rating.. The average on the Street is US$58.70.
“Stronger than expected income from asset management and realized carried interest drove the beat to the Street. Management reiterated no exposure to private credit/software, and reaffirmed bullishness in real estate (in particular rents/occupancy moving significantly higher), realized carried interest picking up in H2, and the BWS outlook following JUST closing. Our PT increases on slightly higher estimates,” said Mr. Gloyn.
* RBC’s Paul Treiber bumped his Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) target to $90 from $78, which is the average, with an “outperform” rating.
“Calian reported a solid quarter, with revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS all above RBC/consensus. Organic growth strengthened and bookings were strong, primarily due to increasing demand from defence customers, along with a recovery in U.S. commercial. We believe acquisitions in the defence segment are potential catalysts for the stock,” said Mr. Treiber.
* RBC’s Arthur Nagorny raised his CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T) target to $100 from $99 with an “outperform” rating, while National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah increased his target to $104 from $102 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $101.07.
“CCL reported Q1 results above consensus, with organic growth in the CCL segment coming in at a solid 3.1 per cent despite tough comps. Looking ahead, CCL segment orders were noted as being ‘solid’, which we view favourably given the inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East disruption (i.e., no signs of demand pulling back thus far). In turn, our organic growth forecasts move higher for the balance of the year as we expect CCL to be able to pass through the inflationary cost pressures,” said Mr. Nagorny.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy increased his target for Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) to $60 from $55 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $67 from $65 with an “outperform” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $50 from $48 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $56.22.
“: While much of the upcoming investor discussions will likely center on the ongoing Competition Tribunal process, we see tailwinds that can drive the stock meaningfully higher over the coming months/quarters. These include potential for the stand-alone Marketing business to perform better than Keyera’s newly-released 2026 guidance, favourable updates on its synergies from the now-completed acquisition, a new fee-based EBITDA guidance for the combined business that maintains Keyera as one of the fastest growing Canadian Midstream companies, and progress on its major development projects. Overall, we remain constructive on Keyera’s stock,” said Mr. Choy.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay raised his KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T) target to $12.50 from $12 with a “hold” rating, while TD’s Sean Steuart bumped his target to $12 from $11 with a “hold” rating. The average is $11
“Despite a modest top-line miss, KP delivered a margin beat led by strong Consumer segment performance. Continued deleveraging leaves the company well-positioned ahead of the anticipated western U.S. TAD facility announcement, a project we believe will enhance the company’s long-term growth profile in the U.S. market. Near-term, the rise of certain input costs will need to be monitored closely, but KP’s margin discipline is encouraging,” said Mr. Tremblay.
* Updating his financial model after its first-quarter results to reflect the capital spent to date at its Thacker Pass asset and an increase of $110-million to reflect potential inflationary pressures, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibe lowered his target for Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC-T) to $7.25 from $7.50 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $7.97.
* With its “strong execution showing through,” National Bank’s Nathan Po increased his Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) target to $14.50 from $12 with an “outperform” rating, while RBC’s Arthur Nagorny to $13 from $10 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $12.05.
“With the business beginning to march to a steady drumbeat of internal and commercial initiatives supportive of margin improvement, we reiterate our Outperform rating as the company continues to execute,” said Mr. Po.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury raised his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) target to $18 from $16, keeping a “speculative buy” rating, while National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibe bumped his target to $20 from $19. The average is $17.63.
“The Koné project continues to advance towards first gold production in Q4/26 (approximately 72 per cent of the capital has been committed to date) and Montage has closed its acquisition of African Gold, which sets up the Didievi project in Côte d’Ivoire as next in Montage’s development queue following Koné and puts Montage on a path to becoming a multi-asset producer,” said Mr. MacRury.
* National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu moved his Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) target to $28 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Daniel Magder to $26 from $25.50 with an “outperform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler to $23 from $24 with a “hold” rating and TD Cowen’s Sean Steuart to $25 from $24 with a “hold” rating. The average is $24.86.
“The quarter was more or less in line with expectations and a solid start to the year; however, offshore wind speeds to start 2Q have been soft and we’ve modestly reduced our 2Q estimates. Hai Long and Baltic Power remain on track with NPI expected to provide a Hai Long refinancing update in the summer. While NPI remains in execution mode, we are still looking for a bit more clarity on the next leg of material growth. We maintain our Hold rating and bumped select discount rates, which trimmed our target,” said Mr. Sadler.
* RBC’s Drew McReynolds increased his target for Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to $64 from $60 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini to $69 from $63 with a “buy” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Jerome Dubreuil to $66 from $61 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Adam Shine to $67 from $59. with an “outperform” rating. The average is $60.86.
“Despite strong share price performance driven mainly by multiple expansion (from 6.1 times FTM [forward 12-month] EV/ EBITDA at the beginning of 2025 to 8.0 times currently), we continue to see a reasonable risk-adjusted return profile for the stock,” said Mr. McReynolds. “We believe the driver of further upside in the shares from current levels will be primarily NAV growth bolstered by healthy FCF generation and a relatively low payout ratio. While the bar of expectations at current valuation in our view is now notably higher, a more constructive pricing environment (for the most part) combined with steady execution on a variety of tactical initiatives and cost-efficiencies should enable this bar to be met as 2026 progresses.”
* Seeing data centre demand “breathing new life” into its compressed natural gas outlook, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny increased his Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) target to $7.50 from $6 with a “sector perform” rating, while Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his target to $7.75 from $7 with a “hold” rating The average is $8.
“SPB currently trades at 6.5 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA compared to its 10-year average trading multiple of 7.0 times, implying 20-per-cent upside potential should the company deliver on its ‘Superior Delivers’ initiative by 2028, while also confirming attractive terminal value related to the recently inked data centre contracts. Overall, we maintain our Sector Perform rating acknowledging further upside from management looking to bolt on additional CNG data centre contracts over the next 6-12 months,” said Mr. Kenny.
* National Bank’s Nathan Po trimmed his target for Terravest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) to $170 from $175 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $186.50.
“Subsequent to the quarter, we believe shipments of data centre tanks began rolling off the line at a more reasonable pace. While the larger size of data centre projects will increase the financial impact of delays, this is a price worth paying given the larger dollar value of orders and the accretive margins on these products. As such, we maintain our estimates for excess data centre revenues largely intact, only lowering our near-term estimates to account for recent S232 amendments,” said Mr. Po.
* Making “more conservative” revisions to his forecast after a “weak” quarter, National Bank’s Adam Shine lowered his target for VerticalScope Holdings Inc. (FORA-T) to $4.25, matching the average on the Street, from $4.50 with a “sector perform” rating, while RBC’s Drew McReynolds cut his target to $5 from $6 with a “sector perform” rating
“1Q delivered softer than anticipated results amid ongoing programmatic pressures that are still expected to continue through 1H following mid-March 2025 changes to the classification of programmatic video ads and Google updates to its core search algorithm,” said Mr. Shine.