Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco thinks last week’s extensive updates from Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) reinforces its multi-year growth outlook, leading him to raise his rating for its shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“After market close [on June 24], WDO released a three-year outlook; an updated MRE (effective December 31, 2025); highlights from updated Tech Reports at Eagle River/Kiena (effective December 31, 2025); an inaugural dividend and expanded share buyback program,” he said.
“Impact: Expected milestone delivered on time, shows initial fruits of increased exploration campaign, as the three-year outlook lends de-risking over the medium term; inaugural dividend and upsized NCIB reflects discipline and confidence going forward; while updated MRE and mine plans represent a first step in building out global endowment toward now-defined sizable resource goalposts.”
In a client report titled De-Risking Meets Organic Growth, Mr. DeMarco said he expects the Toronto-based company to “execute on their exploration target of 2.4–6.3 million ounces and ... the self-imposed annual reporting scorecard reflect confidence.
“The exploration foundation has been set, and the next few years expect the company continue to harvest resource accretion,” he explained. “A constructive gold price provides support.
“Shifts the narrative to an organic growth story from a prior focus on mine life extension. We expect WDO to deliver into the upper end of the broad outlook ranges from FY26e 192k oz (unchanged) to FY27e 210k oz (vs. NBCCM old 192k oz, FY27O 185-220k oz, mid-point 203k oz); FY28e 215k oz (vs. NBCCM old 170k oz, FY28O 185-230k oz, mid-point 208k oz) which implies P/CF28 of 5 times.”
With adjustments to his forecast through 2029, Mr. DeMarco raised his target for Wesdome shares to $37 from $34. The average target on the Street is $31.83, according to LSEG data.
“Our upgrade considers (i) target increase on higher N12M [next 12-month] EBITDA with commensurate boost to return to target; (ii) broad-based de-risking specifically with respect to N3Y [next-three-year] outlook, mine life extension and dividend/buyback; (iii) confirmed fruits of exploration efforts over the last few years aligned with company messaging incl. at the exploration teach-in; and (iv) after model updates our NAVPS increased 3.3 per cent to $27.27 (was $26.41).”
“Where could we be wrong? We recognize the ‘Global Model’ converted lower grade mineralization into reserves which contributed to the mine life extensions. Yet these ounces are largely longer dated; WDO maintains the high-grade nature of Eagle has not been diluted as reserves above 15 g/t and 20 g/t increased year-over-year; Kiena high-grade depletion was replaced; capital efficiency moderates timing of drilling out the high-grade core; and WDO fully expects to add more high-grade ounces. We also recognize the tight labour market remains, though do not weight as a differentiating factor as its sector-wide."
National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu sees “regulatory momentum building” for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N, AQN-T) ahead of the release of its second-quarter results early next month.
“Q2 was a busy regulatory quarter for AQN, with several constructive rate case filings across its portfolio, bringing total pending revenue requests to $250-million,” he said. “The company filed a $38.1-million revenue request for New York Water and an $8.4-million filing for Empire Electric (Arkansas). AQN also filed a notice of intent for its EnergyNorth Gas rate case, pointing to a $40-million request; we expect a formal filing by year end. Together, these filings support AQN’s execution on its ‘back-to-basics’ strategy, driving recovery of regulated capital investment and continued earned ROE improvement.
Given the “active regulatory backdrop” during the quarter, Mr, Sidhu made adjustments to his forecast for the Oakville, Ont.-based company to “reflect updated assumptions across several proceedings, including incorporating newly filed rate cases (i.e., New York Water, Empire Electric Arkansas), using reasonable assumptions based on recent precedents.” He also made “modest” adjustments to “better align” operating costs and revenue recognition with his expected rate case approval cadence.
He is now projecting adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter of 4 US cents, down from 5 US cents, which is the current consensus on the Street. He also lowered his full-year projection by a penny to 34 US cents, which is 2 US cents under the Street’s expectation.
“We continue to expect the remainder of the year to remain active on the regulatory front, which should position the company for a steady cadence of earnings catalysts over the coming 12-24 months,” he added.
“Long-term growth opportunities continue to build. Beyond the current rate case cycle, AQN continues to build its long-term regulated growth pipeline. Key opportunities include its $770-million SPP transmission program, with 80 per cent of spending eligible for recovery under FERC formula rates, and a potential 250 MW natural gas generation project to support growing demand in Missouri. We also expect the company to file its proposed Missouri large-load tariff by year end, further positioning Empire Electric to capture data centre-driven load growth. Together, these initiatives provide additional visibility into long-term rate base and earnings growth.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Algonquin shares, Mr. Sidhu trimmed his target to US$7 from US$7.25. The average is US$6.64.
“Overall, while these changes modestly reduce our valuation, they do not alter our constructive long-term view on AQN, underpinned by a visible multi-year regulated capex pipeline, an active regulatory agenda supporting future rate base growth, and potential upside from incremental large-load/date centre opportunities,” he said.
“AQN continues to execute on its strategy to improve regulatory returns while advancing a visible regulated investment pipeline. With regulatory activity accelerating and long-term growth opportunities expanding, we believe the company’s earnings profile should steadily improve.”
Following Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s (PPL-T) announcement that it has achieved positive financial investment decision on the on 932MW gas-fired combined cycle power generation Greenlight Electricity Centre on Thursday, Desjardins Securities analyst Brent Stadler thinks it “has a hyperscaler PPA [power purchase agreement] in hand, and thus we expect a large datacentre FID announcement near term.”
“In our view, this FID is great news for the Alberta (and Canadian) datacentre industry, providing clarity that hyperscalers are coming to the province/country,” he said in a client note. “In our view, this first hyperscaler should be the catalyst to more datacentres coming to Alberta, essentially opening the floodgates. Given our view that we have confirmation of a hyperscaler coming to Alberta and more clarity to $100+/MWh CONE, we have increased our run-rate power price on both CPX and TA to C$85/MWh starting in 2029.”
“What we found positive. (1) The FID and 60-per-cent project-level debt financing suggest Pembina has a datacentre offtake in hand and thus we expect a 1–2GW datacentre FID announcement in the near term; (2) we expect that the datacentre will tighten the Alberta power market (along with traditional load growth) as it is likely the datecentre load can be a demand driver starting in 2028; and (3) the release confirms an elevated Cost of New Entry (CONE) in Alberta, which we estimate is around $110/MWh, based on Pembina’s $4.6-billion build cost and 932MW of generation ($5-million/MW). Given the expected load growth and our view that the price of power will migrate closer to CONE, we have increased our run-rate power price assumption in Alberta to $85/MWh (from $80/MWh) starting in 2029. "
With those bullish expectations, Mr. Stadler made these target adjustments, recommending “investors should be buying ahead of the datacentre FID announcement.”
* Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) to $88 from $82 with a “top pick” rating. The average is $84.48.
Analyst: “In our view, it is likely that in order for CPX’s 250MW MOU in Alberta to be executed as a PPA, we need to see the datacentre FID, which we expect near term. Given we expect PPA pricing discussions to start with CONE, we have more confidence in our expectation that the PPA will have attractive pricing (likely $85–90/MWh, a 20–25-per-cent discount to CONE) and that term could be in the range of 15 years, contracting almost 20 per cent of our 2026 estimate of CPX’s merchant gas volumes."
* TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) to $19 from $18.50 with a “hold” rating. The average is $25.
Analyst: “The FID is positive for the Alberta power market as a whole, which should benefit TA. While we have increased our run-rate power price assumption to $85/MWh, at this point in time we only ascribe value to TA’s Keephills 2 and 3 CTG assets, at 50-per-cent and 60-per-cent capacity factors. It is possible we are being overly conservative, but we look for more clarity on the supply/demand dynamics before ascribing value to additional volumes.”
Mr. Stadler added: “What we are looking for next. (1) Over the near term, we expect the announcement that the datacentre has FID’d, and we expect the name of the hyperscaler to come to light (rumoured to be Meta). This could be the catalyst the market is waiting for; and (2) we expect clarity on the timing of the load entering the market. We continue to believe it takes around 15–20 months to build a datacentre and that we should see load enter the market in 2028."
Meanwhile, ATB Cormark’s Nate Heywood raised his target for shares of Pembina Pipeline to $72 from $70 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $69.94.
“We are revising estimates in 2030+ to capture the now sanctioned GLEC project and confidence in Management’s growth strategy. With these revisions, we are increasing our price target,” said Mr. Heywoood.
Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien upgraded Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” in response to its selection to build the multibillion-dollar Greenlight Electricity Centre facility.
“Owners Pembina Pipeline, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners and Kineticor Asset Management have appointed TRA, a consortium in which ARE holds a majority stake, for the 932 MW natural gas-fired combined-cycle power generation project in Sturgeon County (AB),” he said. “The site will supply electricity to a co-located data centre, supporting accelerating demand from AI and broader electrification trends. Already expected to be one of Alberta’s largest new sources of dispatchable power generation, GLEC has the potential to be expanded to double its permitted generation capacity.
“Another boost to backlog. Aecon’s $1.7-billion share of the contract will be added to its work program in 3Q26. It calls for ARE and partner Técnicas Reunidas to perform civil works for existing and future power islands, as well as piping, mechanical, structural, electrical and instrumentation work for the balance of plant, gas metering station, switchyard and substation. Construction will ramp up later this year with most significant construction activity stretching over 2027-2029.”
Mr. Bastien thinks the contract “adds another growth vector” to what he thinks is “already the most significant power infrastructure opportunity” for Aecon in his more than two decades covering the stock.
“With additional announcements likely to serve as catalysts, we believe the path of least resistance for the stock is higher,” he added.
The analyst raised his target for its shares to $60 from $52, exceeding the $53.44 average on the Street.
“The fixed-price award follows an extended period of collaborative design and development with the client, which we see supporting a de-risked execution,” he said. “GLEC also comes unexpected, leading us to raise our 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by 7 per cent and 9 per cent , respectively. Concurrently, we are tweaking our near-term forecasts for revenue and personnel costs to align with 1Q26 trends, and layering in higher interest expense expectations post acquisition of Oaktree’s preferred stake in Aecon Utilities.These changes lower our adjusted EPS estimate for 2026 by 3 per cent, while bumping our 2027 projection up by 3 per cent."
National Bank Financial analyst Mike Stevens thinks a “compelling setup remains” for Kraken Robotics Inc. (PNG-X) following Thursday’s close of its $615-million acquisition of Covelya Group Ltd. and an update to its fiscal 2026 guidance.
The Mount Pearl, N.L. company, which makes sonar systems and underwater batteries for ships and submarines, also revealed its intention to uplist its shares to the TSX, expecting the process to be completed by year-end 2026 or early 2027.
“Kraken’s updated FY26 guidance came in slightly below Consensus estimates and our (internal) expectations; recall that we had not published formal consolidated forecasts while the acquisition was pending,” said Mr. Stevens. “The delta comes from lower expected (Kraken) Services revenue as there’s an Acoustic Corer project that hasn’t materialized yet along with the removal of KATFISH from the Services business, as customer demand is centred on purchases rather than rentals.
“On the Covelya side, Sonardyne’s On-Demand Ocean Bottom Node (OD OBN) program with partners Shell, Petrobras and SENAI CIMATEC sees a pause in 2026 before commercial operations ramp in 2027. As a result, we’re now looking for (pro forma) growth closer to 20 per cent year-over-year in FY26 before inflecting higher in FY27 toward high-twenties growth, with total revenue approaching $570-million – we’d consider this growth quite impressive at this scale."
The analyst said he now sees Kraken’s valuation as “much more attractive” following the closing of the acquisition, but he trimmed his target for its shares to $10 from $13 to reflect lower near-term expectations (in fiscal 2026). The average is $9.50.
“Kraken’s valuation multiple moves to approximately 4.2 times EV/Sales and 17.9 times EV/EBITDA on our FY27 estimates (from 8.0 times and 30.4 times, respectively, as a standalone entity). We believe this remains a compelling entry point for the shares.
“All in, we continue to believe Covelya represents a potentially transformational acquisition that essentially triples the Company’s scale and meaningfully diversifies its overall business and customer base, while also de-risking its valuation multiple in the process.”
He added: “We continue to believe that the market is underappreciating the combined company’s scale, diversification improvements and future growth prospects, while maintaining a similar margin profile. Shares have declined 40 per cent from highs in early March and are now trading at 17.9 times EV/EBITDA on our FY27 estimates; those estimates imply 31-per-cent pro forma Adj. EBITDA growth.”
Elsewhere, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier lowered his Street-high target to $13.50 from $14 with a “buy” rating.
“We view the closing as neutral given the guidance was in line with consensus but slightly below our estimates. We took the opportunity to tweak our estimates to reflect product orders weighted more toward 2H and temporary softness in services. We remain confident in Kraken’s ability to integrate Covelya and secure incremental orders in 2H,” said Mr. Poirier.
In other analyst actions:
* In a report previewing the release of its second-quarter results on July 30 titled Could be Time to Revisit Spin, TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison increased his target for Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) shares by $1 to $27 with a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $23.67.
“A return to historical retail ordering patterns, compelling offering including stabilization of M&D, clean channel inventory, and stable POS trends could support Spin outperforming Q2/26 consensus. We forecast year-over-year growth to accelerate in the seasonally strong Q3/26, improving investor confidence in 2026 guidance, that leads to a narrowing of its valuation discount currently at historical lows,” said Mr. Morrison.