Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
In a “call to action” and seeing “no need for further delay,” National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine thinks a dividend cut from BCE Inc. (BCE-T) is “inevitable” and raised his recommendation for its shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“A ‘stable’ dividend in 2025 was incorrectly telegraphed last November with news of the Ziply deal,” he said in a research report titled Time to Cut Dividend, It’s Already Arguably a Year or Two Delayed. “The band-aid could have been pulled then, but it wasn’t. Moving annual hikes to a pause ahead of a cut might appear as a prudent approach to further assess corporate and macro conditions, but the rear-view mirror has reflected steadily weakening conditions for the past two years and what’s beyond the windshield isn’t showcasing blue sky or a meaningful climb higher. Discipline is absent in wireline and especially wireless, immigration changes are exacerbating pressures, and Trump tariffs now loom larger on consumers and businesses.
“It might be nice to wait to close the MLSE deal or Ziply buy, but that’s prolonging a seemingly inevitable cut by just a quarter or two. If BCE can telegraph a stable dividend in 2025, it can telegraph a cut for 2026 if not to take effect post-1Q25 reporting. We’ve been modelling a 50-per-cent cut in 2026, but a cut that kicks in post-1H25 (DRIP discount could also be quickly eliminated) could set the stage for leverage to drop to 3.0 times in 2027 even ahead of other monetization initiatives being considered.”
Mr. Shine said he’s now awaiting the close of several high-profile deals, including its stake in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment to rival Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI-B-T), from the Montreal-based telecom, but he also wants to see more progress on non-core sales.
“Besides opex/capex cuts, Bell’s targeting $7-billion in asset monetizations 2024-2025 (pending Northwestel sale for up to $1-billion, MLSE sale for $4.7-billion or net $4.2-billion expected to close in 2H), with possible sales this year including its 20-per-cent stake in Montreal Canadiens, smart home business and/or two-way mobile radio business,” he said. “A key parallel priority is whether to add a partner before/after the Ziply closing to help fund its capex plans and/or future U.S. growth. Other efforts include how to surface value from Bell’s infrastructure as we watch Big 3 peers exploring options.”
He kept a $36 target for BCE shares. The average target on the Street is $35.27, according to LSEG data.
“The stock has priced in a weak start to a tough 2025 per guidance, but it doesn’t yet reflect opportunities to reduce leverage and its out-of-whack payout ratio,” said Mr. Shine. “BCE looks like a relatively safer stock amid Trump-induced market/economic uncertainty, as we await action by the Board & management.
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In a separate research report, Mr. Shine downgraded Quebecor Inc. (QBR.B-T) to a “sector perform” recommendation from “outperform” after its shares reached his target price.
“We’re not making any changes to our estimates ahead of our 1Q preview nor any valuation adjustments at this time,” he explained. “The downgrade arises from an outperforming stock that is up nearly 20 per cent year-to-date and moved above our target earlier [Thursday] as it hit a record high of $38.26. Looking out to a later pushing forward of our valuation by six months, metrics currently point toward $41 with downside risk to $39-$40 if we need to revise estimates or trim multiples as we already did for BCE and Rogers in our recent 1Q previews,”
While emphasizing he’s still reviewing his estimates ahead of its first-quarter release, Mr. Shine is currently projecting revenue to fall 1.3 per cent year-over-year to $1.345-billion, narrowly under the Street’s expectation of $1.354-billion. He sees adjusted EBITDA rising 1.1 per cent to $566-million, matching the consensus view.
He reaffirmed his $38 target for Quebecor shares. The average is $39.04.
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Citi analyst James Hardiman sees BRP Inc. (DOO-T) as “the biggest Liberation Day winner” in his North American leisure and travel coverage universe, leading him to raise his rating for the Valcourt, Que.-based recreational vehicle manufacturer to “neutral” from “sell” previously.
“At its core, BRP is a Canadian company that manufacturers product overwhelmingly in Mexico and sells product overwhelmingly in the U.S.,” he said. “While the tariff landscape remains fluid, this supply chain setup appears to have dodged the worst-case scenario, as tariffs on Mexico and Canada (at least for USMCA-compliant products) appear to be on the backburner (at least for now), postponing – if not eliminating – a potentially existential threat. Meanwhile, BRP competes with companies that import a significant amount of product (relative to DOO) into the U.S. from China/Japan, a supply chain setup that was disproportionately punished on Wednesday. Hence, running somewhat counter to the aims of Liberation Day, this Canadian company is arguably the biggest winner in our group, staving off the single-largest threat in our coverage and potentially gaining price/margin advantages in its primary end market.”
Mr. Hardiman said his last two downgrades of BRP, which came in February and then again two weeks ago and moved it from “buy” to a “sell” recommendation, were in both cases due to “a combination of deteriorating end-market fundamentals and the existential threat represented by promises of 25-per-cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada.” While emphasizing the fundamental outlook “remains challenged (arguably more so),” he thinks “the tail risk appears to have been greatly diminished.”
“So while BRP faces a great many challenges, we would put them back on par with the rest of the leisure products/powersports space,” he said.
“Mexico and Canada tariff policies were notably excluded from the Liberation Day announcement, with our reading of the White House statements suggesting USMCA compliant product is safe for now (likely until the June 2026 renegotiation). — We also believe (based on our reading of tariff documents) that ORVs should be excluded from automobile-specific tariffs. When coupled with the incremental tariffs on China (34 per cent) and Japan (24 per cent), while DOO will see a modest hit, this is dwarfed by the hits being taken by most of their competitors (namely Polaris, Honda, Kawasaki, and Suzuki among others).”
While he lowered his fiscal 2026 earnings per share forecast to $3.09 from $3.45 to an estimate additional 36-cent penalty from the incremental 34-per-cent China tariff, Mr. Hardiman noted “this is a relatively small cut in the context of our tariff-impacted companies, and a small price to pay relative to the doomsday scenario of a 25-per-cent Mexico tariff.”
His target for BRP shares jumped to $52 from $39, believing a “higher multiple is warranted give a substantial flattening of DOO’s tail risk.” The average target on the Street is $66.28.
“In a number of categories then (most notably utility vehicles and ATVs, but to a lesser degree recreational side-by-sides), BRP could now see a tariff-born competitive advantage due to Chinese import exposure that is a small fraction of that at its competitors,” he concluded.
“Hence, running somewhat counter to the aims of Liberation Day, this Canadian company is arguably the biggest winner in our group, staving off the single-largest threat in our coverage and potentially gaining price/margin advantages in its primary end market.”
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CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden thinks a “defence over offence” strategy for investing in North American banks continues to make sense, but he said his preference for U.S. over Canada has ended.
“CIBC Economics estimates the average effective tariff rate for Canadian goods exported to the U.S. could potentially be below 10 per cent depending on USMCA compliance,” he said. “We were expecting something closer to 20 per cent, which is roughly the average tariff rate that the U.S. is applying to all imports. In other words, Canada, along with Mexico, should shoulder less economic pain than most of the rest of the world. Also, given the breadth and magnitude of tariffs applied to the rest of the world, it is expected that the U.S. economy will face a challenging economic transition in the near term. Global tariffs with a relatively lower average rate imposed on Canadian exports is not a positive story for the Canadian banks, but it does change our view that overweighting banks with more U.S. earnings is the best defence.”
In response to that view, he made three rating revisions on Friday.
He upgraded Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $168 target, rising from $167. The average target is $180.51.
“RY is the bank that typically performs better in down markets,” he said. “RY generates a lower proportion of revenue from NII, which means less EPS downside risk from slower loan growth, NIM compression and higher PCLs. Earnings and balance sheet diversification are positive attributes when economic conditions worsen. RY is already trading at a bit of an extra premium valuation multiple relative to the group, but it tends to experience less multiple compression when stocks are trading down.”
Conversely, Mr. Holden downgraded Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a target of $141, down from $152. The average is $153.80.
“BMO generates the highest proportion of earnings from the U.S. (approximately 45 per cent) among the Canadian banks,” he explained. “We no longer view that as an advantage, at least not in the near term. BMO generates a higher proportion of revenue from NII than RY does and also has more earnings sensitivity to PCLs. The P/E multiple is at the higher end of the range for the group, implying that there is additional valuation risk as forward expectations shift to a less positive economic outlook.”
He also reduced National Bank of Canada (NA-T) to “underperformer” from “neutral” with a $115 target, down from $127 and below the $134.79 average.
“Our downgrade is centred on ABA Bank and the potential negative consequences from U.S. tariffs on Cambodia,” said the analyst. “A 49-per-cent tariff rate on Cambodia is likely to have a material impact on the economy given its dependence on U.S. exports. NA does not have a lot of direct exposure to the manufacturing sector, but second-order impacts through GDP growth and unemployment have the potential to be significant. We think it is best to sidestep this potential pitfall.”
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Believing its valuation is becoming more enticing to investors, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen upgraded TFI International Inc. (TFII-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“Although trucking market conditions remain soft overall and the tariff uncertainty and the associated impact on North American economic growth will likely remain a headwind for the broader freight markets, the significant sell-off in TFII shares (down 46 per cent year-to-date versus DJ Trucking Index down 18 per cent) has created a more compelling entry point, in our view,” he said.
Emphasizing the Montreal-based transportation and logistics company’s markets will “eventually improve,” Mr. Doerksen thinks TFI’s valuation has now “reset to a more interesting level.”
“On our updated 2025 estimates, for which we forecast a modest decline off of an already trough-like 2024 earnings performance, TFII shares are trading at 7.3 times EV/EBITDA, a discount to the stock’s five-year forward average of 9.7 times and the long-term average (going back to 2008) of 8.0 times,” he said. “TFII is also trading well below the weighted average peer group at 9.2 times EV/EBITDA. On our 2025 EPS estimate, TFII shares are currently trading at 13.5 times P/E versus the five-year average of 18.4 times and the long-term average of 14.6 times. The weighted average peer group trades at 22.7 times 2025 P/E.”
“Near-term results for TFII will remain depressed, and we are not optimistic for an earnings rebound this year. However, end markets will eventually rebound and TFII does have some self-help initiatives underway in both its LTL and TL segments to lower costs even if underlying volumes do not improve.”
After making a notable reduction to his valuation, Mr. Doerksen cut his target for TFI shares to $132 from $178. The average is $156.40.
“We continue to value TFII shares using a sum of parts based on our 2026 forecast, which we have lowered to reflect a weaker economic outlook,” he explained. “We have also lowered our valuation multiples to reflect lower peer multiples and the higher risk that the current trucking downturn persists for longer. For our LTL [less-than truckload] segment valuation, we now apply an 8.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple versus 9.0 times previously. For the TL segment, we lower our multiple to 6.0 times from 7.0 times and for the Logistics segment we lower our valuation to 11.0 times from 12.0 times. Our new target is $132.00 versus $178.00 previously. Even after this significant valuation reduction, our new target is 28-per-cent upside from the current share price.”
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After Thursday’s release of better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, Stifel analyst Martin Landry expects “continued strong operational performance” from Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T), however he thinks its “shares are fully valued and also reflecting a safety premium” and recommends investors “await a better entry point to add to positions.”
“Dollarama reported strong Q4FY25 results that were better than expected,” he said. “The company introduced a guidance reflecting a cautious consumer environment and a more rapid entrance into Mexico than anticipated. As a result, despite the Q4FY25 earnings beat, we have decreased our FY26 EPS slightly. Dollarama’s shares performed extremely well, up 14 per cent year-to-date, a reflection of the continued strong performance operationally but also the defensive nature of the business. In these uncertain times, in our view, Dollarama represents a safe haven for investors. This has driven Dollarama’s valuation upwards, trading at 36 times next twelve months earnings, near the highest level seen in the last 10 years.”
Despite the broader market selloff, shares of the Montreal-based discounted retailer rose 0.4 per cent on Thursday after it reported quarterly revenues of $1.9-billion, up 15 per cent year-over-year and in-line with Mr. Landry’s expectations. EBITDA of $670-million topped the analyst’s $643-million estimate and the consensus projection of $637-million, leading to earnings per share of $1.40, rising 22 per cent from the same period a year ago and surpassing forecasts ($1.32 and $1.31, respectively).
“F26 guidance reflects a cautious view on consumers,” said Mr. Lanry. “Dollarama introduced a guidance calling for FY26 same-store sales growth of 3-4 per cent year-over-year, compared to our estimate of 4 per cent and consensus of 3.7 per cent. Management’s guidance reflects a slow start to the year as well as a frugal consumer, even in the value channel. Dollarama’s FY26 gross margin guidance range of 44.2-45.2 per cent, suggests a potential erosion over FY25 levels of 45.1 per cent, reflecting headwinds from higher shipping costs, a weaker Canadian dollar, and less revenue leverage on fixed costs. Dollarama expects to benefit from improved store productivity, with guidance for FY26 SG&A as a percentage of sales at 14.2-14.7 per cent, a modest improvement over FY25′s 14.5 per cent.
“Dollarcity’s Mexico entry happening sooner than expected. Dollarama announced that Dollarcity’s entry into Mexico is happening sooner than expected, with the first location set to open in the summer of CY25. This earlier-than-expected opening will, however, bring forward concept testing and ramp-up costs and investments. As a result, Dollarama anticipates a loss of US$10-20 million for the ramp-up of operations in Mexico, with 80 per cent of this loss to be reflected in Dollarama’s P&L under the share of net earnings of equity-accounted investments. We expect the Mexican operation to be dilutive to earnings for the next three years.”
After raising his valuation multiples to “reflect better visibility on Mexico market entry and longer-term optionality from Australian expansion,” Mr. Landry increased his target for Dollarama shares to $162.50 from $140. The average target is currently $166.50.
Elsewhere, others making target adjustments include:
* National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar to $176 from $166 with an “outperform” rating.
“We hold a positive view on DOL’s shares reflecting a stable, long-dated high-growth, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance. We acknowledge execution and the macro backdrop are key,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $183 from $159 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q4 results reinforce our view that DOL remains a best idea and core holding in 2025. Strong Q4 performance, dividend up 15 per cent, and solid F26 guidance in an environment of heightened macro uncertainty, supportive of our constructive view and investment thesis. Sector-leading growth trajectory, strong free cash flow and consistent capital returns, supportive of DOL premium valuation, in our view,” she said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $165 from $160 with a “buy” rating.
“As expected, 4Q results and the FY26 outlook showed growth normalization and strong FCF at both Dollarama and Dollarcity. While our target offers a limited potential return, our positive view reflects relative near-term outperformance within our coverage given DOL’s strong earnings visibility against economic uncertainty, investors’ preference for safety, attractive long-term growth from Dollarcity, Mexico and Australia, and a solid balance sheet with financial flexibility,” said Mr. Li.
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $175 from $150 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“DOL will likely see some negative impact from softer discretionary spending, though we suspect the business likely holds in better than the majority of consumer names. The stock may prove even more resilient, as we suspect few investors will seek to jettison the safety of DOL despite what is now an all-time high valuation at 35 times NTM [next 12-month] EPS. We expect valuation to matter little near-term, as there are enough positive narratives — taking market share, Dollarcity dividends/disclosure/Mexico, Australia — to keep the stock moving,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison to $185 from $160 with a “buy” rating.
“Dollarama reported Q4/F25 results ahead of consensus, with key metric guidance for F2026 in line with our forecast. The Dollarcity contribution handily exceeded expectations cementing our view of the portability/standout relative value proposition of the business model. This increases our confidence to ascribe greater value to its early stage international growth operations,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to US$168 from US$146 with a “hold” rating.
“In our view, Dollarama continues to demonstrate resiliency through volatile market conditions. While the softer consumer backdrop and retaliatory tariffs have introduced an element of uncertainty for the year ahead, we believe Dollarama’s focus on delivering everyday value will continue to resonate with its customer base. As a price follower, we expect Dollarama to offset any tariff-related cost increases through pricing adjustments alongside other retailers, as it has historically. Given the continued strong performance from Dollarcity, we remain optimistic on management’s ability to successfully execute on its international expansion plans,” said Mr. Hannan.
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $174 from $145 with a “neutral” rating.
“DOL delivered strong Q4 results with sales trends improving through the period as seasonal sales picked up and narrowed the gap to consumables. Tariffs and the wave of global uncertainty have clipped consumer sentiment, though we believe DOL’s strong value positioning will be insulating. Dollarcity continues strong growth, and Australia now offers additional potential,” said Mr. Petrie.
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In a research report released before the bell titled You Get What You Pay For – Premium Assets at Premium Price, Citi analyst Spiro Dounis initiate coverage of TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T) with a “neutral” recommendation.
“TRP uniquely offers investors among the purest exposure to two of the fastest-growing segments of the energy market: natural gas and power,” he said. “We expect these secular macro tailwinds to drive over 30-per-cent EBITDA growth over the next 5 years, which equates to a 6-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate]. While these tailwinds are highly constructive for growth, we identify two partially deflating features: (1) TRP’s leverage likely remains elevated, and (2) we forecast slightly slower relative growth vs peers. At an less than 1.0 times premium to peers, we believe TRP is largely receiving credit for its peer-leading low volatility and exposure to strong, multi-decade tailwinds.”
Mr. Dounis said the Calgary-based company is displaying a similar growth profile to its peers with “way less volatility,” but he did warn it comes with a cost.
“We believe TRP offers more growth per unit of risk. On growth, TRP is positioned to grow EBITDA at a 6-per-cent CAGR over the next 5 years and benefit directly from secular tailwinds, including: LNG, power, data centers, and coal-to-gas switching,” he said. “While that growth rate is slightly shy of peers, TRP’s meaningfully lower volatility is the key distinguishing factor here. Specifically, TRP’s earnings volatility is half that of midstream peers, making TRP among the least volatile companies under coverage.”
“We see the potential to grow the natural gas business by over 30 per cent in the next decade. Similarly, we see the potential for Bruce Power to grow EBITDA by over 170 per cent to meet the growing call for Ontario power by 2050. In order to meet these demand needs, we expect TRP to outspend its cash flows and rely on leverage. Thus, we expect TRP to continue to rely on higher leverage to fund growth and boost returns, albeit at much more manageable levels.”
Noting its valuation is among the highest in his coverage universe, “reflecting its peer-leading low earnings/stock volatility,” Mr. Dounis set a target of $75 per share. The average is $72.04.
In a separate report, he initiated coverage of Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T) with a “buy” rating and $75 target. The current average is $64.65.
“ENB uniquely offers investors a one-stop-shop to benefit from global energy growth in all forms due to its diversified liquids, gas, and renewables platform which is expected to fuel more than 70 per cent of energy demand,” he said. “In fact, ENB has outpaced global energy demand by 400bps, something we expect to continue. Secular tailwinds in natural gas and power underwrite 80 per cent of ENB’s capital backlog and drive 90 per cent of near-term growth. ENB’s liquids business is critical to funding this growth, driving more than 70 per cent of ENB’s FCF generation relative to its 50-per-cent EBITDA contribution. Not only do investors not have to choose which fuel wins the future, but ENB also provides a low-risk option. In fact, ENB’s earnings and stock volatility are among the lowest in midstream. Thus, we believe ENB offers greater return per unit of risk.”
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In a research report released Friday, CIBC World Markets analyst Mark Jarvi raised his target prices for a group of Canadian utility companies in his coverage universe.
“The recent outperformance of regulated utility stocks reminds us that bond yields are not the only key macroeconomic/market factor that impacts performance,” he said. “While bond yields have been drifting lower (more so in the last few days), we believe the relative outperformance has been driven by a shift in risk-sentiment and a flight to stability/predictability in these volatile times. In this report, we set out to see which (if any) other macro and capital markets metrics/factors can be used to help identify when or why utility stocks outperform. Our analysis shows that credit spreads (BBB corporate and high yield) are often as strongly (if not more) correlated with utility relative performance. Moreover, we’ve parsed differing yield curve change conditions to show that flattening coupled with declining yields is when utilities perform the best, and that in Canada there’s a stronger negative correlation with oil price changes and utility performance than there is in the U.S. Finally, given our analysis and the current macro/market conditions, we believe a modest increase in our valuation multiples (0.5-1.0 times increase to P/E) for regulated utilities under coverage is warranted. Our price targets for ACO.X, CU, EMA, H and FTS increase by 6 per cent on average.”
His changes are:
- Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T, “outperformer”) to $62 from $59. The average is $53.67.
- Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T, “neutral”) to $40 from $38. Average: $38.83.
- Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “outperformer”) to $63 from $59. Average: $59.09.
- Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “neutral”) to $68 from $65. Average: $65.13.
- Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “neutral”) to $49 from $46. Average: $45.79.
“Our two Outperformer-rated names remain ACO.X and EMA—we believe these two firms offer the best risk-adjusted returns,” he said.
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Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams has a positive long-term outlook for copper pricing, viewing “the red metal as a key input for global decarbonization efforts, data centre demand and EV use.”
In a research released Friday, he initiated coverage of seven Canadian-listed copper companies.
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) with a “buy” rating and $12 target. The average on the Street is $12.22.
Analyst: “Capstone is our preferred copper equity for its near- and long-term growth options, above-average leverage to copper prices, strong management team and takeout potential. Key to share price appreciation over the near term is continued success at its MVDP ramp-up and expansion to 45ktpd.”
* Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) with a “hold” rating and $25 target. Average: $25.82.
“Hold-rated Ero has near-term growth and a strong FCF yield in 2025, but it lost operational momentum in 2024 and needs to regain operational consistency for meaningful share price appreciation, in our view.”
* First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) with a “hold” rating an $23 target. Average: $21.86.
Analyst: “We rate First Quantum a Hold due to the ongoing resolution in Panama, but we acknowledge that the company has improved its balance sheet and that the S3 expansion appears to be on track.”
* Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) with a “buy” rating and $16 target. Average: $15.
Analyst: “We view Hudbay as well-positioned to develop Copper World in the coming years. Due to Pampacancha high-grade ore in Peru and strong gold output in Manitoba, its balance sheet has improved, with net debt reduced to US$641-million as of December 2024 from US$1,020-milllion two years ago. Key upcoming updates include a Copper World partner announcement and feasibility studies ahead of a construction decision.”
* Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) with a “buy” rating and $17 target. Average: $15.91.
Analyst: “Lundin is a notable long-term growth name in our view, as the company continues to derisk Vicuña Corp. (50/50 joint venture with BHP); we view Vicuña as a high-quality, emerging copper region. We expect a maiden resource for Filo del Sol in 1H25, which could be a near-term catalyst, and an integrated technical report in 2026.”
* Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) with a “buy” rating and $74 target. Average: $70.51.
Analyst: “. Teck has near-term growth as QB ramps up, as well as several longer-dated growth options in its portfolio. The company is now focused on industrial metals and has a large share buyback program, in which we expect it to stay active in 2025. Key stock drivers this year will be the company accelerating QB to nameplate capacity and operational consistency following ramp-up efforts in 2024 which were below expectations, as well as continued buyback activity.”
* NGEx Minerals Ltd. (NGEX-T) with a “buy” rating and $20 target. Average: $17.29.
Mr. Adams also assumed coverage of Atex Resources Inc. (ATX-X) with a “buy” rating and $3.50 target. The average is $2.79.
“In the exploration space, we rate both ATEX and NGEx Buy–Speculative,” he said. “In our view, both have strong resource upside potential, but in terms of market capitalization NGEx has already had a remarkable run to current trading levels of $2.9-billion whereas ATEX trades at $600-million. We note that ATEX reported an inferred resource of 1.4bt at Valeriano, while NGEx has a 3.2bt resource at Los Helados and our model includes a further 1.7bt at the high-grade and pre-resource Lunahuasi exploration property. We see upside potential in both stocks, but given a lower starting base ATEX shares could react faster to market catalysts, in our view.”
Mr. Adams added: “For exposure to near- and medium-term copper pricing, we recommend Buy-rated stocks Capstone, Teck, Hudbay and Lundin. For exposure to longer-term prices and for significant resource upside potential, we recommend both ATEX and NGEx in the exploration space with Buy ratings.”
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In other analyst actions:
* In response to its capital allocation “clean-up,” including a 75-per-cent dividen cut, Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch upgraded Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (PNE-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a 95-cent target (unchanged). The average is $1.04.
“While the stock reacted negatively to the announcement, the damage was better contained on a relative basis, occurring within the context of broader macro headwinds. In any event, we view the adjustment to capital allocation positively, and we highlight that returns to target have improved sufficiently to warrant a Buy rating following several weeks of market underperformance,” he said.
* Scotia’s Phil Hardie lowered his AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) target by $%1 to $12 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $13.25.
“We expect AGF to report a relatively solid first quarter, but believe the results are backward-looking following a dramatic shift in the market backdrop,” he said.
* RBC’s Douglas Miehm cut his Bausch + Lomb (BLCO-N, BLCO-T) target by US$1 to US$17 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$18.50.
* In a first-quarter earnings preview, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier lowered his target for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) to $169 from $179 and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) to $129 from $134 with a “buy” rating for both. The averages are $170.93 and $126.21, respectively.
“Despite the tariff overhang and increased capital markets uncertainty, we expect CN and CP to maintain guidance for the year. For 1Q, we have slightly lowered our estimates and now forecast adjusted fully diluted EPS of C$1.79 for CN (was C$1.81) and C$1.06 for CP (was C$1.10). Its slightly greater crossborder exposure notwithstanding, we maintain our preference for CP. Its aggressive buyback activity in March, despite its higher leverage, sends a strong signal that there has been no change in the degree of visibility or in CP’s confidence that it can achieve the higher end of its EPS guidance range of 12–18 per cent,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Canccord Genuity’s Peter Bell hiked his Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL-T) target to $14.50 from $10.25 with a “speculative buy” rating. The average is $14.67.
“We reiterate our SPEC BUY rating on Collective Mining and increase our target ... following (1) the company’s Q4/24 results, (2) the company’s recently completed financing and our near-term financing assumptions, and (3) our estimated development timeline where we have shifted production to begin in 2031 (previously 2030). The net result of these changes is a 40-per-cent increase in our NAV/sh to $16.51 from $11.75. We note the increase per share is largely driven by the reduced dilution impact of our near-term financing assumptions,” he said.
* Mr. Bell also increased his K92 Mining Inc. (KNT-T) target to $13.75 from $13.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $14.16.
“2024 was an impressive year with strong financial performance driven by higher grades and record production, resulting in both higher revenue and lower per ounce metrics,” he said. In addition, the company bolstered its cash balance to $140-million, positioning it well as it heads into the final stages of its Stage 3 Expansion project at Kainantu.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Doug Taylor lowered his target for D2L Inc. (DTOL-T) to $20 from $22 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar to $20 from $24 with a “buy” rating, RBC’s John Shuter to $18 from $22 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Brian Peterson to $18 from $20 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $18.75.
“While U.S. higher-ed deals are getting pushed out amidst uncertainty around the Dept. of Education, weighing on near-term growth, D2L’s other growth drivers are sustaining, namely (1) increased upsell with a differentiated AI-led product suite, (2) deeper international penetration, and (3) new corporate learning share gains, allowing the company to keep its prior target growth profile in view (10-15-per-cent revenue growth with 200 basis points EBITDA margin expansion) as per new medium-term targets. While it may take longer than we expected to hit the upper-end of the range with the incremental slowdown in U.S. higher-ed, we believe our thesis is largely intact and continue to look for D2L’s strengthened competitive position to fuel continued share gains, alongside continued NRR and ACV expansion, particularly as key comps are distracted under PE ownership. We lower our target on more conservative revenue estimates to reflect the lower F26 guide,” said Mr. Sukumar.
* Following the announcement of its new $11-billion, 12-year deal for National Hockey League rights in Canada, TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini trimmed his Rogers Communications Ltd. (RCI.B-T) target to $60 from $62 with a “buy” rating. The average is $53.36.
“Disclosure from Rogers remains limited on both the new 12-year deal and the prior 12-year deal, other than consistent claims that the prior contract has been profitable,” he said. “Consequently, we do not claim to have perfect visibility, so some of our assumptions and estimates are definitely going to differ a bit from reality. What we are doing is our best attempt to estimate the key moving pieces in this opex obligation, and we actually think we could be using certain assumptions that are generous to Rogers. If we are even close to reality on a directional basis, then we can clearly conclude that this new $11-billion contract is way too expensive, and thus it will negatively impact future EBITDA and FCF. Is it possible that Rogers is willing to lose money on this deal because it believes benefits in other areas of its business could offset those losses? Yes, that is possible ... However, we believe these benefits would have mostly still existed if Rogers renewed for $8-billion instead of $11-billion, so the direct net loss that we expect on this contract is still a new element in our forecasts, which we believe needs to be factored into our outlook and valuation.”
* Coming off restriction following the close of its bought deal offering, National Bank’s Rabi Nizami raised his Snowline Gold Corp. (SGD-X) target to $15, above the $12.88 average, from $10 with an “outperform” rating, while Scotia’s Eric Winmill increased his target by $1 to $9.50 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“The increase in target price reflects an increase in our long-term gold price forecast to US$2,500/oz from US$2,300/oz,” Mr. Nizami said. “We continue to believe Snowline is an attractive M&A target for Senior players looking to add a world-class deposit (Valley) with credible upside on a district-scale exploration play, in a safe Canadian jurisdiction where it can stand apart from more challenging assets in Africa, Latin America or elsewhere. Our rating considers the high quality of exploration results to date, an impressive maiden resource of over seven million ounces with a high-grade, zero-strip starter pit, heightened M&A appeal given the rarity of large-scale gold discoveries in safe jurisdictions and management’s first-mover positioning for further discovery potential in the large, 100-per-cent-owned district.”
* In response to Wednesday’s U.S. reciprocal tariff announcement, National Bank’s Adam Shine lowered his Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) target to a Street low of $26 from $32 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $38.57.
“April 2 disclosures by the U.S. administration raised the tariffs on China to 54 per cent and spread reciprocal tariffs around the world, including for other countries in which TOY has strived to further diversify its manufacturing operations,” he said. “These other countries are Vietnam (new 46-per-cent tariff), India (26 per cent), Indonesia (32 per cent) and Hungary/Poland/Netherlands (20 per cent for EU),” he said. “The totality of tariffs now look like an aggregate of at least US$220-million (we have TOY doing US$474-million of Adj. EBITDA in 2025E which needs to be revisited) or $12/share for a 3 times effect to prior calculations and ahead of mitigation efforts as well as considerations of these tariffs potentially pushing the United States into a recession.
“Hasbro [HAS:NASDAQ, not rated] and Mattel [MAT:NASDAQ, not rated] are currently down 13 per cent and 14 per cent [Thursday], with a 14-per-cent drop pointing TOY to $21.30. Management has said that it will update its guidance for the effects of tariffs when it reports its 1Q on April 30 (call on May 1), but with Trump tariffs remaining quite fluid, it’s difficult to truly get a handle on things. The toy sector was carved out of China tariffs during the first Trump administration, so we’ll see if we move from blanket tariffs to some sector exceptions, but this is not a given, so we must remain focused on the more negative implications of what’s afoot until the sands possibly shift again over coming days or weeks. In the meantime, we remain quite cautious on TOY.”