Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar attributes the “solid” fourth-quarter 2025 results from Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T) to the “Buy Canada” movement as well as “helpful” year-over-year comparables and customer trends.
On Thursday, shares of the Nova Scotia-based grocery chain operator jumped 5.3 per cent after it reported “solid” food same-store sales growth of 3.8 per cent, up from 0.2 per cent during the same period a year ago and exceeding the analyst’s 3.0-per-cent forecast.
Earnings per share rose 11 cents year-over-year to 74 cents, also topping both his 70-cent estimate and the consensus projection on the Street of 71 cents. That gain came despite a 15-cent hit from long-term incentive program expenses, which Mr. Shreedhar thinks “suggests strong momentum.”
The company also announced a 10-per-cent increase in its quarterly dividend paid to shareholders.
“EMP noted market share gains, improving conventional performance, higher basket, trading up to fresh, and declining promotional penetration, among other factors,” he added. “Also, EMP suggested the Buy Canadian consumer shift (banner and product) is sticky. We view these factors to be constructive amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.
“EMP expects F2026 capex of $850-million (NBF models $850 mln), with 50 per cent allocated to renovations and store expansion (approximately 1.5-per-cent square feet growth from new stores; add 24 new stores vs. historical average of 8. EMP continues to target 10-20 bps of annualized gross margin improvement and noted SG&A leverage will be a key focus. We made revisions to our EPS estimates: F2026 goes to $3.40 from $3.27 and F2027 goes to $3.71 from $3.55.”
With the increases to his earnings expectations, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target for Empire shares to $59 from $53, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average target on the Street is $56.50, according to LSEG data.
“Looking forward, we believe that EMP has opportunity related to ongoing improvement initiatives and inexpensive valuation,” he said. “That said, an elevated mix of lower growth conventional stores and less pharmacy exposure limits growth/margin potential versus peers.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $60 from $55 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe the positive share price reaction reflects EMP’s better-than-expected SSSG and gross margin (percentage) and increased confidence that it can achieve its medium-term framework of 8–11-per-cent EPS growth again in FY26,” he said. “This would be largely in line with MRU and L [Metro and Loblaw]. EMP trades at 17 times NTM [next 12-month] P/E vs 21–23 times for MRU and L, or a 5 times discount vs the 3–4 times average. While there is potential for the discount to narrow further if EMP continues to achieve outsized SSSG, the key risk is weakening economic fundamentals causing consumers to trade down to discount.”
* RBC’s Irene Nattel to $61 from $56 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Q4/F25 results in line with forecast with ongoing stabilization of consumer value-seeking behaviour,” she said. “EMP executing its strategy to maximize revenues in full-service while simultaneously growing its modest discount presence, improving GM% management through better mix, lower shrink, and tighter execution, and controlling costs. Improving market conditions encouraging, but we maintain our view that given current uncertain macro backdrop and accelerating food CPI, shifts in consumer behaviour in favour of EMP’s positioning that skews to full-service likely to be modest and gradual.”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $62 from $49 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“EMP.a has shown clear momentum on comp sales and EPS growth from a variety of drivers. Moreover, it may occupy a sweet spot in the current economic environment in which consumers’ perceived worries from the macro picture have little impact on actual spending, at least not yet. Growth has accelerated sharply, and we expect another constructive year in F26 after a healthy bounceback in F25,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie to $59 from $55 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Strong same-store sales (SSS) momentum is the highlight of the quarter and is aligned with our thesis on Empire outperforming as shifts in consumer behaviour (in food) stabilize. Higher share-based comp obscured what could have been even better earnings growth, though we see further margin expansion in F2026,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst to $58 from $48 with a “hold” rating.
“Q4 strong ex-SBC, but unclear how much is sustainable as management did not help much in that matter on conference call,” he said.
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong sees Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) “uniquely well-positioned to benefit from accelerating growth in the nuclear industry and a tight uranium market.”
In a research report released Friday, he touted potential gains brought by the “nuclear energy revival underway to meet rising energy demand.”
“In just the past month, we have seen several significant announcements highlighting nuclear energy’s revival including - 1) Germany no longer opposing nuclear energy for deployment in the EU; 2) Belgium reversing its nuclear phase-out policy and keeping current reactors online; 3) the U.S. supporting growth of the domestic nuclear industry via four White House Executive orders calling for streamlined regulation and new nuclear capacity; 4) major tech companies signing long-term power purchase agreements for nuclear energy, highlighted most recently by Meta/Constellation and Amazon/Talen,” he said.
Mr. Wong thinks Westinghouse, which is Cameco owns a 49-per-cent stake in (with Brookfield Renewable Partners owning the remaining portion), should benefit from renewed growth, seeing it in “a pole position within the nuclear industry with a ubiquitous nuclear services business, widely considered large reactor design in the AP1000, and a mutually beneficial partnership with Korean nuclear builders.”
“The company’s nuclear services core business (fuel fabrication, turnarounds, maintenance, extensions, parts) provides service to 50 per cent of the global installed base of reactors while 20 per cent of all global reactors are a legacy Westinghouse design,” he added. “The Westinghouse AP1000 reactor is also widely considered for new build projects globally, and we think the most likely design to be selected for any potential large US reactor build program (potential for up to 10). Additionally, Westinghouse participates in Korean-led new large reactor builds through an agreement that allows KHNP (Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power) to use legacy Westinghouse nuclear technology for export.”
Also seeing Cameco’s uranium mines as “low-cost tier 1 assets that continue to operate well,” Mr. Wong said he expects the market to remain tight “with supply risks and long-term deficit forming.”
“We see the uranium market staying tight, with purchases from the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust adding upward pressure near term, while we continue to see the need for more supply to meet steadily rising demand, especially into the 2030s,” he said. “Contracting activity has been moderate through H1/25 given macro uncertainty and contract/inventory coverage, but we expect activity to improve through H2/25 and into 2026 as utilities will need to contract more volumes for late-2020s/early-2030s.”
With an increase to his full-year earnings expectation, Mr. Wong hiked his target for Cameco shares to $100 from $90, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average is $91.90.
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber thinks BlackBerry Ltd. (BB-N, BB-T) may report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on June 24 that “slightly” exceed both his expectations and the Street’s estimates and provide a raise to his full-year guidance, noting “the bar is low” as it provided a “conservative” forecast on “liberation day”.
“The company has provided conservative guidance in the past, averaging actual revenue 13 per cent above consensus and actual adj. EPS $0.02 above consensus over the last 4 quarters. We believe BlackBerry’s Q1 may exceed RBC/consensus, as the macro environment was likely more stable than anticipated in guidance, provided on April 2 (i.e., ‘liberation day’),“ he said. ”Therefore, we believe Q1 revenue may exceed RBC/consensus at $114-million/$112-million and guidance for $107-115-million. Excluding Cylance, our revenue estimate implies negative 7-per-cent year-over-year growth. Q1 adj. EPS may also come in above RBC/consensus at $0.00.”
“BlackBerry’s FY26 guidance appears conservative to us, as guidance for $230-240-million Secure Communications revenue (down 14 per cent year-over-year mid-point) only implies $27MM non-recurring revenue, down from $70-million in the prior year. We believe BlackBerry may increase FY26 Secure Communications revenue guidance by $10-30-million (4-13 per cent), given likely more stable renewals and incremental license revenue. Due to higher revenue, we believe BlackBerry may raise FY26 adj. EPS guidance to $0.10-0.12 from $0.08-0.10 previously.”
Despite that optimism, Mr. Treiber kept a “sector perform” rating for the Waterloo, Ont.-based company’s shares, believing its valuation will “remain discounted pending improved visibility to sustained growth.” He reiterated a US$3.75 target, which is below the US$4.24 average.
“BlackBerry is trading at 4.7 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/S, which is an 11-per-cent discount to auto tech peers, above BlackBerry’s 5-year average (4.0 times and 35-per-cent discount),” he said. “We believe a sustained upwards re-rating is dependent on: 1) strengthening IoT growth; and 2) realization of improved profitability.”
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In other analyst actions:
* In a research report released Friday titled From Colombia, With Love, Raymond James’ Luke Davis initiated coverage of Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE-T) with a “market perform” rating and $10 target. The average on the Street is $10.20.
“Gran Tierra Energy Inc.’s (GTE-TSX) repositioning and entrance into Canada provides a platform for differentiated growth across multiple plays combined with geographic diversification,” said Mr. Davis. “The acquisition of i3 Energy also led to elevated financial leverage, which to some degree limits near-term development potential. That said, if oil pricing holds current levels or management executes a meaningful divestment, we see a path to outsized relative returns alongside deleveraging, although we note a preference for gas-weighted equities given an increasingly tight North American market, while acknowledging escalating global geopolitical tensions could shift balances. Given integration and balance sheet improvement will likely be the primary investor focus for the foreseeable future, we currently see better opportunities amongst Canadian peers.”
* Ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on June 25, Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan trimmed his Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) target to $81 from $84, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average is $82.93.
“We forecast YoY same-store sales (SSS) growth of down 0.5 per cent, up 2.0 per cent and 1.0 up per cent in the U.S., Canada, and Europe and other regions, respectively,“ he said. ”The overall tepid consumer spending backdrop in the U.S. has likely continued to have a negative impact on the traffic Couche-Tard has witnessed at its sites during the quarter, while in Canada the opening up of beverage alcohol distribution in the province of Ontario towards the end of Q2/F25 should continue to provide SSS tailwinds for both Q4/F25 and the first half of F2026, more than offsetting softer consumer spending. In Europe and other regions, regulatory changes related to cigarette sales in the Netherlands should provide a modest tailwind to the segment’s overall SSS; recall that as of February 2025 the company has now also lapped the tobacco tax increases in Hong Kong last year.”
“We believe Couche-Tard’s organic growth initiatives should be supportive of consolidated margin expansion over the course of our forecast period, while structural market dynamics suggest fuel margins over the medium-to-long term should remain healthy. In our view, Couche-Tard remains well-positioned to deliver low-teens EBITDA growth over the course of our forecast period.”
* Following a tour of International Petroleum Corp.‘s (IPCO-T) Blackrod project in the Alberta oil sands, Scotia’s Kevin Fisk raised his target for its shares to $23 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $23.24.
“[We] were impressed by the progress being made on the facility’s construction and IPCO’s solid execution,“ he said. ”The start-up of Blackrod in late 2026 represents a key inflection point in IPCO’s production and free cash flow profile. Between 2025 and 2028 we model a 56-per-cent increase in production and 2028 free cash flow generation of $205-million at strip prices (approximately 11 per cent of current market cap). We have increased our target price to $23 per share due to the strong execution at Blackrod."
* In response to the close of its acquisition of Induction Healthcare, Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne bumped his target for VitalHub Corp. (VHI-T) to $14.50 from $14 with a “sector outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Michael Freeman moved his target to $14 from $13.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $14.06.
“Our updated forecast mainly reflects contributions starting in H2, with Adj. EBITDA margins scaling from slight losses initially toward VitalHub’s company average of 20 per cent exiting 2026 through planned cost rationalization and operational synergies,” Mr. Krishnaratne said. “We raise our target price by $0.50 to $14.50 to reflect incremental recurring revenue contributions, though we see potential for further upside as management executes on cross-selling opportunities between Zesty’s patient engagement platform and VitalHub’s existing suite of offerings, and as we gain better visibility into other revenue contributions beyond just the recurring revenue components we have modeled.”