Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Following “another strong” quarter, National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood sees Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T) possessing a “diverse portfolio with many levers,” however he warned its valuation continues to remain an obstacle for investors.
Shares of the Calgary-based energy company rose 1.4 per cent on Thursday after it reported average production of 1.47-million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 8 per cent from the previous quarter and 4 per cent year-over-year while falling in line with expectations of both Mr. Wood (1.44-million_ and the Street (1.437-million). Cash flow per share of $1.97 was a gain of 7 per cent sequentially but down 2 per cent from the same period a year earlier, exceeding expectations ($1.88 and $1.78, respectively) due to stronger-than-expected natural gas realized pricing and lower-than-anticipated costs.
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“CNQ achieved robust production volumes with quarterly records across the board (but in line with expectations),” Mr. Wood said. “The company has been successful on the implementation of enhancement projects (e.g., reliability and debottlenecking), which in addition to the recent acquisition of CVX assets (closed last December) have contributed incremental SCO barrels (realizations in line with WTI). This momentum has continued into 2025 with net SCO volumes on pace to meet our Q1 expectations of approximately 570-575 mbbl/d [thousand barrels per day] as compared to Q4 of 535 mbbl/d. Earlier than expected on-stream dates for several thermal pads helped contribute to sequentially strong Q4 volumes as well (up 2 per cent from Q3).
“Guidance was reiterated with the expectation for the asset swap to close sometime in the first half of the year, slightly later than the original plan of Q1.”
With the results, the company announced a quarterly dividend increase of 4 per cent to 58.75 per share (up from 56.25 cents), implying a dividend yield of 6 per cent.
“CNQ exited the quarter with net debt of $18.7 billion (1.3x D/CF) and we currently expect the company to reach its net debt target of $15 billion sometime in 1H26, accelerating the return of FCF to shareholders to 75 per cent at that time (up from 60 per cent),” the analyst said.
Expecting a guidance revision with it closes its asset swap deal with Shell Canada Ltd. related to the Athabasca Oil Sands Project, Mr. Wood trimmed his cash flow projections for 2025 and 2026, leading him to cut his target for Canadian Natural shares to $49 from $51, keeping a “sector perform” recommendation. The average target on the Street is $55.31, according to LSEG data.
“Operationally, the company continues to deliver on expectations with momentum to start the year,” he said. “Valuation remains the primary driver around our Sector Perform rating which we initiated following Q2/23 results, and our continued belief that the shares are fairly valued underscores that rating. The company continues to deliver solid operations and cash flow; however, we believe the expectations for much of this year are reflected in the current valuation. Our 6.5 times target multiple (down from 7.0 times) is aligned with the company’s long-term average and drives our $49 target price.”
Elsewhere, others making target changes include:
* RBC Dominion Securities’ Greg Pardy to $63 from $62 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our bullish stance towards CNQ reflects its strong leadership team, shareholder alignment, free cash flow generation throughout cycles, best-in-class operating performance and abundant shareholder returns,” he said. “We also like the fact that investors are getting paid to wait—via a 6-per-cent dividend yield — for the potential Duration Trade we framed to unfold.”
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth to $52 from $51 with a “market perform” rating.
“CNQ had another solid quarter and finished the year off with several new records across its assets in 2024, including record annual production, liquids production, and Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading SCO production,” said Mr. Barth. “These record production rates led to upgrader utilization of 99 per cent in 2024 (including plant turnarounds) and 105-per-cent utilization in 4Q24. Valuation has become more attractive (12-per-cent 2025 FCF yield), but we maintain our Market Perform rating. Despite our Market Perform rating, we do note that CNQ is one of the better operators to gain oil exposure in Canada, driven by low sustaining breakevens, decades of 2P reserves, reasonable leverage, and best in class capital allocation.”
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In the wake of fourth-quarter 2024 financial results that exceeded his expectations, Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil moved his recommendation for Converge Technology Solutions Corp. (CTS-T) to “tender” from “buy” previously, seeing no indication that its deal to be acquired by H.I.G. Capital in a $1.3-billion will not close.
“As expected, the company did not hold a conference call and has suspended its practice of providing a revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA outlook as a result of the proposed transaction,” he said.
“We continue to expect the proposed acquisition of CTS by H.I.G. Capital announced on February 7 to close as we do not anticipate regulatory hurdles. We also believe the probability of a higher bid is low, due to the following: (1) shareholders representing 24 per cent of outstanding shares have entered into voting support agreements; (2) CTS has agreed to a $34.4-million break fee (approximately 18 cents/share); (3) this was a competitive process; and (4) there is a no-shop provision in the agreement. The special meeting of shareholders will be held on April 10 and we expect the transaction to close shortly thereafter.”
After the bell on Wednesday, the Toronto-based IT and cloud computing company reported revenue of $681-million, exceeding previous guidance of $600-$646-million, as gross sales organic growth came in at 3 per cent year-over-year, which was a “significant” improvement from a 8.4-per-cent drop in the previous quarter. Gross income of $179-million and adjusted EBITDA of $47.9-million also topped the company’s expectations ($165-$178-million an $36-$47-million, respectively).
After increasing his revenue and earnings forecasts through fiscal 2026, Mr. Dubreuil moved his target for Converge shares to $5.50 from $5. The average is $5.45.
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreehar views Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd.’s (CTC-A-T) “True North” transformation strategy, announced Thursday, with “interest,” however he warned “as with any strategy, execution is key and recent operating performance has been uneven.”
“CTC’s True North strategy is expected to accelerate retail growth and loyalty expansion,” he explained. “The strategy includes: (i) Accelerating Triangle Rewards through more personalization, more brand partners and a new retail-focused bank strategy to acquire/engage more Triangle Mastercard holders, (ii) Aggregating CTC’s banners/systems/data (customer engagement and eliminate siloed/redundant back-office), and (iii) Reorganizing senior leadership.
“CTC aims to invest over $2 bln over 4 years and generate savings from 2025 ($100-million run rate from 2026). I/T investments will impact 2025 opex by $60-million. (3) Post the sale of Helly Hansen, CTC expects: (i) 2025 capex at the upper end of $525-$575-million (NBF is $575-million), (ii) 2025 share buybacks of up to $400 mln (NBF is $400-million), and (iii) Debt repayment of $200-million.”
Mr. Shreedhar emphasized the retaile did not provide targets for sales or earnings, which he said would have indicated “strong confidence in its approach.”
“Given soft consumer demand and uneven operating performance, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,” he said. “That said, green shoots appear to be emerging relating to sales performance.
“Our EPS estimates are revised: 2025 goes to $13.87 from $14.19 and 2026 goes to $16.29 from $15.96.”
Reiterating a “sector perform” recommendation, Mr. Shreedhar moved his target to $174 from $70. The average target is $160.36.
Other analysts making target adjustments include:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan to $154 from $153 with a “hold” rating.
* Jefferies’ Jonathan Matuszewski to $140 from $145 with a “hold” rating.
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Seeing turbulence from U.S. tariffs and a potential federal government change creating a “fluid situation” for Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T), National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev says he’s “ok to bide our time on the sidelines.”
“We of course understand that a lot of the macro dynamic is outside management’s control, but with 42 per cent of the backlog being fixed-price, any bottlenecks around the supply chain (typical contract will have 15-20 per cent of materials as COGS) and re-prioritization of spending priorities in case of a government change can lead to delays (Canadian elections are very much up in the air, potentially impacting spending continuity),” he said.
“At this point, it remains a fluid situation and whenever investors get compensated to take the risk, fine, but here visibility is murky, at best, given all the moving parts. We are ok to bide our time on the sidelines (recall we downgraded the shares already when they hit $28.00 on nuclear / AI mania [on Dec. 3, 2024].) Overall, we would like the sentiment to settle first as lower projections need to be reflected in consensus forecasts, pushing up the trading multiple to 6.9 times EV/EBITDA on 2025E, not exactly a bargain when considered in historical context. Lack of meaningful FCF and roll-over of names like Quanta/ MasTec in the U.S. also points to a more subdued sentiment.”
Shares of the Toronto-based construction company dropped 16.1 per cent on Thursday despite a fourth-quarter 2024 revenue beat as consolidated adjusted EBITDA came in at $76.3-million, missing the Street’s expectation by 7 per cent ($82.2-million). The miss was attributed to a decrease in gross margin in civil operations and a volume-related decline in urban transportation work. Adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents fell well short of both Mr. Sytchev’s 46-cent forecast and thee consensus estimate of 41 cents.
“2025 to be a ‘show-me’ year,” the analyst said. “Last year was widely acknowledged to be a transitional one for the company as management worked through the remaining pre-2018 fixed price portfolio, shifted the backlog towards lower-risk collaborative model contracts, and completed the tuck-in acquisitions to leverage exposure to the thematically growing energy transition space. However, even when factoring in the impact of the fixed price projects due to be completed by Q3/25E ($121-million now left in the backlog), a 171-per-cent year-over-year drop in the EBITDA margin was more significant than expected. The setup for 2025E appears broadly positive with a significant number of large project wins and 45-per-cent revenue exposure to the fast-growing and resilient utilities and nuclear sectors while the end of the aforementioned projects is within sight. That said, investors are likely to maintain a close eye on consistent execution to stabilize pro-forma margins and the prospects of an eventual FCF inflection ($28-million in 2024 (company definition) while dividends are a $47-million annual obligation).”
Citing management’s expectation for lower development revenue for the concessions segment, Mr. Sytchev reduced his EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting the decline to start recovering in the back half of 2026.
“Given mix change, our margins mathematically are also compressed, as a result,” he added. “On the positive side, given we saw 8-per-cent backlog growth in 2024 year-over-year, we expect mid-single digit revenue growth in 2025/2026 that should offset some of the declines in the concessions segment.”
Reiterating a “sector perform” rating for Aecon shares, Mr. Sytchev lowered his target to $23 from $30. The average is $30.64.
Elsewhere, Stifel’s Ian Gillies downgraded Aecon to a “hold” recommendation from “buy” with a $19 target, falling from $31.
“Aecon’s top line performance in 4Q was robust, and we expect strong revenue growth in 2025,” said Mr. Gillies. “However, our consolidated EBITDA margin assumptions have been pared back by 80/90 basis points in 2025 and 2026, to reflect weaker performance in the company’s Joint Venture operations. We have pared back our SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] methodology to 5.5 times 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA for the Construction business (prior: 6.0 times) and continue to value equity income at 14.0 times. As a result, our target price falls to $19.00/sh from $31.00/sh. We are downgrading our rating to HOLD given the 5.7-per-cent implied return. We believe the stock performance likely will remain sideways for the next 9-12 months given the lack of catalysts.”
Others making target changes include:
* Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien to $23 from $28 with a “market perform” rating.
“Our Market Perform rating on Aecon Group is maintained after 4Q24 results delivered a mixed bag,” said Mr. Bastien. “We were pleased to see ARE limit the bleeding on its remaining legacy fixed-price jobs, but at the same time were unimpressed by how certain other parts of the business performed. It is tempting to view [Thursday’s] 16-per-cent collapse in share price as a not-to-be-missed buying opportunity, that much is clear. But with Donald Trump’s trade and tariffs tantrums rattling the investment world all over, we would rather stick to sleep-well-at-night stocks.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $29 from $32 with a “buy” rating.
“Given the Concessions segment headwind and the tariff uncertainty/potential inflationary impact on material costs, we have remained conservative with our estimates,” said Mr. Poirier.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $30 from $35 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4/24 adj. EBITDA missed expectations, and ARE saw an additional operating loss ($35.8-milllion) on its three fixed-price legacy JV projects. Still, Q4 revenue growth was strong, and we see ARE as well-positioned going into 2025 (supported in part by its robust backlog, which is set to step-up notably again in Q1/25). We see [Thursday’s] 16-per-cent decline in the stock as creating an attractive entry-point,” he said.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $30 from $33 with an “outperformer” rating.
“While ARE reported Q4 earnings that came in below our and Street expectations, we believe that the 16 per cent decline in the share price was an overreaction and has created a buying opportunity for the stock. The legacy projects remain essentially on track in terms of timing and cost of completion, and while we appreciate there is some lumpiness in the Concessions business, we believe ARE is on a solid trajectory,” she said.
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While he thinks its outlook for the first half of 2025 looks “stressed,” Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen believes the “macro tide [is] turning” in the right direction for AG Growth International Inc. (AFN-T), leading him to upgrade his recommendation to “outperform” from “market perform” previously.
“We are upgrading our rating on Ag Growth International (AGI) back to Outperform (vs. Market Perform prior) based upon: 1) improving North American Ag. fundamentals; 2) AGI’s newly introduced 2025 guidance (appears achievable); 3) AGI’s record order book; & 4) the sharp retreat in AGI shares that introduces a more attractive risk-adjusted entry point, in our view,” he said.
Following Wednesday evening’s quarterly release, Mr. Hansen thinks the management of the Winnipeg-based farm machinery and equipment company “struck a confident tone” with respect to its 2025 guidance, “calling out: 1) its robust basket of ramping international projects (⇑ Brazil, ⇑ EMEA)’ & 2) its record order book. Notably, this guidance range assumes persistent North America Farm weakness through 1H25, and only flat to modest improvement in the back half. Against this backdrop, we view AGI’s implied 2Q25-4Q25 guide as reasonable (EBITDA: $197.5-million, down 8 per cent year-over-year), noting potential upside if the farm market recovers.”
“Notwithstanding persistent pressures with its high margin portable segment, management still expects to post very robust margins in 2025 (17-19 per cent), with a combination of operational efficiency initiatives, new higher margin profile Commercial projects, and cost structure adjustments expected to offset,” he said.
“AGI expects Commercial segment momentum to continue into 2025, with management highlighting several factors underpinning its confidence, including: 1) product transfer momentum (incl. India bin/permanent handling); 2) ramping large scale international projects, including a number of substantial wins from 2024 (15 total: $500-million in total value); 3) strong quoting pipeline (Brazil, EMEA); 4) record Commercial order book (up 46 per cent year-over-year); & 5) Commercial segment margin improvements.”
Mr. Hansen trimmed his target for Ag Growth shares to $47 from $52. The average is $54.38.
Other analysts making target changes include:
* National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev to $51 from $55 with an “outperform” rating.
“We made a wrong call on AFN by not grabbing the opportunity to exit the positioning when a bid emerged and shares rallied in anticipation of ‘something’ happening,” said Mr. Sytchev. “Now, however, we are left holding the bag amid weak farm macro (both in Canada and the U.S.) and tariff uncertainty. At the same time, we also believe the corn/wheat decline cannot persist indefinitely – hence why DE/MOS [Deere and Mosaic] have ALL been rallying in anticipation of an (eventual) rebound. As a result, we don’t want to make a bad capital allocation decision at likely closer to the trough market/potential sale of a company is also not a zero percent probability. We therefore reiterate our OP rating but compress the target to $51.00 (from $55.00) on once again walked down but hopefully more realistic guidance.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $49 from $57 with a “buy” rating.
“4Q results highlight what is also expected for this year—exceptional strength in International Commercial, more than offset by weakness in North American Farm. 2025 EBITDA guidance of $225-million-plus was below expectations and tariff impacts could remain an overhang near-term. However, we remain constructive on AFN’s ability to maintain an 18–20-per-cent margin (despite mix) and robust momentum in Commercial, while patiently waiting for signs of recovery in Farm,” said Mr. Ho.
* RBC’s Andrew Wong to $40 from $45 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We are encouraged by continued strong margin performance and growth in the International Commercial business, while continued strategic interest in AGI provides potential long-term optionality. However, we would like to see signs of a Farm segment recovery and have greater confidence on cash conversion before stepping off the sidelines,” said Mr. Wong.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello to $46 from $57 with a “sector perform” rating.
“All told, while we believe AFN’s longer-term strategic Commercial outlook is encouraging and provides upside potential to our estimates, we believe the risk/return profile for investors is challenged by our view of relatively modest 2025 FCF generation, worsening leverage, and an uncertain depth and duration of the downturn in North American agricultural equipment demand. Given a 6-per-cent reduction in adj. EBITDAS and a 10-per-cent reduction in FCF (before shareholder returns) over our forecast horizon we reduce our price target,” said Mr. Monachello.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $48 from $56 with an “outperformer” rating.
“It has been a challenging start to 2025 for AFN, with the company having to reduce its 2024 guidance in January and having to continue to contend with headwinds in the ag market,” she said.
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In other analyst actions:
* CIBC World Markets’ Robert Catellier downgraded South Bow Corp. (SOBO-T, SOBO-N) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a US$25 target (unchanged). Other changes include: RBC’s Maurice Choyto $38 from $34 with an “outperform” recommendation, TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard to $22 from $25 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to US$27 from US$26 with a “sector perform” rating an National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to US$25 from US$24 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $33.24.
“Although quarterly results were solid, the shares have previously reached our price target. Combined with weak 2025 guidance, we are downgrading ... We believe the weak marketing guidance for 2025 involves both market conditions and management’s intention to reduce exposure in a volatile period,” said Mr. Catellier.
* Citing an improved valuation, ATB Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello upgraded CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $11 target (unchanged). The average is $11.28.
“Operationally, CEU continues to demonstrate top-tier execution with revenue and adj. EBITDAS outpacing North American rig activity levels (down 2 per cent year-over-year in Q4/24), which we believe is a function of 1) market share expansion across its platform and 2) CEU’s exposure to increasing lateral footage per well across the industry,” he said. “Looking to 2025, we believe CEU is on a strong footing, with market shares in Canada and US drilling fluids approaching record levels and continued market share gains being made in production chemicals. Near-term, however, we expect moderate margin pressures in H1/25 due to a lag in Canadian segment pricing on inventories purchased in US dollars in previous periods. Nevertheless, we view CEU as among the highest quality businesses in the sector, and despite robust fundamentals, CEU shares are down 28 per cent year-to-date, among the most in the industry. CEU’s recent share performance has meaningfully improved its valuation, now trading at 4.9 times|4.2 times EV/EBITDAS with 12-per-cent|15-per-cent FCF yields in 2025|2026, down from 52-week highs at 6.5 times|5.8 times EV/EBITDAS with 9-per-cent|10-per-cent FCF yields (based on our current estimates).”
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen raised her Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) target to $59 from $55, exceeding the $49.97 average, with an “outperformer” rating, while Raymond James’ Frederic Bastien increased his target to $50 from $46 with an “outperform” rating.
“Badger Infrastructure delivered better-than-expected 4Q24 results even as election uncertainty weighed down construction activity in certain U.S. end markets,” said Mr. Bastien. “This tells us management’s pricing, commercial, and operational efficiency strategies continue to show potency. While the impact of the ongoing trade dispute on new hydrovac costs (and the broader economy) is uncertain, we take comfort in knowing BDGI already has ample fleet positioned in the right markets. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock and increase our target price to $50, keeping Badger’s outsized exposure to key U.S. industrial and infrastructure segments, market leadership, and compelling valuation in mind.”
* National Bank’s Giuliano Thornhill trimmed his Automotive Properties REIT (APR.UN-T) target to $12 from $12.75, maintaining an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to $12 from $13 with a “hold” rating, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $12.25 from $12.75 with an “outperform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $12 from $13 with a “buy” rating and CIBC’s Sumayya Syed cut her target to $12.50 from $13 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $12.98.
“APR’s Q4 results came in as expected on the operations front, with only some one-offs below the NOI line,” said Mr. Thornhill. “Obviously, heightened tariff threats do not bode well for a dealership REIT, and the implications of a drawn out trade war for dealers could be stark. In particular for APR, we believe increased prices for autos could lead to cheaper floor financing available on currently held inventory similar to what was witnessed during COVID on lower supply. To account for these risks, we are now setting our target at a greater discount to our NAV estimate. Given recent performance which has lagged its peers, a reduction in tariff related headlines would torque to units as APR maintains steady operational performance. We continue to adopt a view the actual tenant risk is lower than is perceived given its anchor tenant (Dilawri) and other sizable groups which we believe represent the bulk of base rent.”
* National Bank’s Matt Kornack raised his BSR REIT (HOM.U-T, HOM.UN-T) target to US$14 from USUS$13.50 with a “sector perform” rating. while RBC’s Jimmy Shan moved his target to US$15.50 from US$16 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$15.73.
“Results were below expectations on a surprising level of rent deterioration offset in part by occupancy gains,” said Mr. Kornack. “Operations continue to feel the pain from new supply, spreads on a blended basis saw meaningful deterioration, with Austin leading the way. While management didn’t provide formal guidance given expected timing-related volatility to earnings as a result of the AVB sale, it sounds like revenue will be at best flat in 2025 with spreads possibly inflecting positively in Q4. Expense growth will however eat into margins, likely resulting in negative SPNOI growth for the year. All this being said, disposition activity justifies a move higher in our NAV/target price on pricing relative to book value and our estimates.”
* Mr. Kornack reduced his target for Minto Apartment REIT (MI.UN-T) to $16.75 from $17 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $16.50 from $17.50 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $16 from $17.25 with an “outperform” rating, CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson to $18 from $20 with an “outperformer” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley to $15.50 from $16.50 with a “buy” rating and RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $19.50 from $20.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $18.08.
“From an earnings perspective, Q4 was relatively in line, although occupancy was a touch light, with the Alberta portfolio, commercial segment and furnished suites each contributing to the weaker print,” said Mr. Kornack. “Mark-to-market potential is softening as the REIT captures spreads on turnover and market rent expectations moderate (Calgary was particularly notable, although this has been felt broadly by the peers and is expected to inflect in H2/25). Capital allocation has been disciplined, the REIT waived purchase options in the CDL program, while recycling assets and repaying expensive variable rate debt / repurchasing shares. The acquisition of Lonsdale Square in Vancouver will be accretive, while inbound interest continues to come in at pricing at or above IFRS for disposition opportunities, making the NCIB an attractive destination for capital.”
* CIBC’s Nik Priebe increased his Guardian Capital Group Ltd. (GCG-T, GCG.A-T) target to $47 from $44 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $53.50.
“Guardian released its full annual report. The scale of outflows was greater than we had anticipated, and reinforces that 2024 was a challenging year for the asset management business. Otherwise, there are some green shoots emerging for some of the longer-term growth initiatives, including the buildout of the company’s presence in the direct retail channel and scaling of the infrastructure strategy,” said Mr. Priebe.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison cut his Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) by $1 to $12 with a “buy” rating. The average is $14.42.
“The Q4/24 results missed consensus, while 2025 guidance forecast an improving financial outlook with the midpoint for implied EBITDA in line with consensus,” said Mr. Morrison. “Despite a challenging year, Martinrea is maintaining its commitment of generating attractive annual FCF. While tariffs remain a cautionary headwind, we believe they will prove temporary and may lead to attractive returns in H2/25.”
* National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé reduced his NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE-T) target to $12.50 from $13.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.84.
* CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson cut his Northview Residential REIT (NRR.UN-T) target to $17, below the $17.75 average, from $19 with a “neutral” rating.
“NRR reported an as-expected Q4/24 as it continues to work toward a more peer-like balance sheet and the transformation from a predominantly high-yield vehicle to a more staid and conservative balance sheet entity. We believe that, in time, the normalization of the REIT’s leverage to be more representative of its direct peers should serve as a catalyst for continued unit price performance,” said Mr. Wilkinson.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang bumped his target for Parkland Corp. (PKI-T) to $50 from $49 with an “outperformer” rating, while National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar increased his target to $42 from $41 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $48.42.
“2024 was a disappointing year for PKI, which it openly acknowledges,” said Mr. Chiang. “For the year, EBITDA came in at $1.69-billion, a touch below its downwardly revised guidance of $1.70-$1.75-billion and versus its expectations at the start of the year of $1.95-$2.05-billlion. Looking ahead, our optimism on PKI is predicated on our view that we see a path for the company to reduce its valuation discount.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay lowered his Savaria Corp. (SIS-T) target to $25 from $27 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $24 from $27.50 with an “outperform” rating, Stifel’s Justin Keywood to $24 from $25 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $22 from $25 with a “sector outperform” rating and National Bank’s Zachary Evershed to $24 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $25.93.
“While potential tariff impacts prompted management to temper its 2025 outlook, we are confident that Savaria has the necessary operational and financial resources to navigate this short-term turbulence,” said Mr. Tremblay. “The goal of reaching the coveted 20-per-cent margin level may be slightly delayed, but it is certainly not forgotten — it remains top of mind across the organization, and management hinted at the potential to first reach it as early as 2H25. We are maintaining our Buy recommendation.”
* BMO’s Étienne Ricard initiated coverage of Sprott Inc. (SII-T) with an “outperform” rating and $75 target. The average is $64.83.
“Sprott is a differentiated alternative asset manager with a long-term track record for mid-single-digit net flows throughout precious metals cycles,” he said. “Further, SII benefits from a scalable business model, generating significant free cash flow and supporting valuations north of 20x earnings.
“With the stock offering long-term low-to-mid-teens annual return on investment prospects, we initiate coverage on SII at Outperform.”