Screens broadcast a news conference with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in October, 2025.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
The U.S.-Iran war has sent energy prices soaring on supply disruptions, while the prices of some other commodities have plunged on recession fears. Hope for a quick end to the conflict has been fluctuating. Insiders can help us figure out what may lie ahead.
Critically, insider activity suggests that the move upward in energy prices may represent a trend that investors have not fully appreciated. I say that based on the willingness of insiders to buy even as share prices are rising. Typically, we would expect to see profit-taking after a strong rally such as what we have seen with the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, which was up about 13.1 per cent over one month as of Friday.
Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE-T) is a case in point. Over the past month as of Friday, Baytex shares have rallied 9.1 per cent. During that period, four company insiders have spent a total of about $613,000 buying shares in the public market. CFO Chad Kalmakoff was the most recent buyer, picking up 15,000 shares at $5.73 on Friday.
Baytex has been transformed into a focused Canadian oil producer following the sale of its U.S. Eagle Ford assets for net proceeds of $3-billion in December, 2025. The company is targeting 2026 production of 67,000 to 69,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 3 to 5 per cent organic growth over 2025 levels. A core focus is Pembina Duvernay, where production is expected to increase 35 per cent this year with a target year-end exit rate of 14,000 to 15,000 boe per day.
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ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX-T) is one of Canada’s largest natural gas producers, with operations concentrated in the Montney formation. It has exposure to Canada’s LNG export opportunities via its BC projects that include Greater Dawson and Attachie.
In March, 2025, ARC announced a long-term LNG offtake agreement with an ExxonMobil affiliate through the Cedar LNG Project, where operations are targeted to begin in late 2028. Meanwhile, ARC’s committed takeaway capacity to U.S. markets helped it realize a natural gas price of $3.51 per thousand cubic feet in 2025, which was 89 per cent higher than the average AECO benchmark price, according to the company.
The stock dropped in early February after the company reported results from Attachie that were below expectations. Insiders bought the pullback. Nine company insiders spent a total of just over $2-million buying shares in the public market in February alone.
The accumulation continued in March, with one insider reporting the purchase of 1,763 shares at $27.86 on Mar. 17. I must stress that it is not the amount that is important here. It is the fact that we are still seeing insiders only on the buy side despite the stock being up 16.3 per cent over the past month as of Friday.
For 2026, ARC is guiding for production of 405,000 to 420,000 boe per day (61 per cent natural gas).
Metals stocks have taken it on the chin since the war began. We have been on the lookout for situations where insiders are buying the pullback, as that would signal that investors may be overreacting to the conflict.
One such situation is unfolding at Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T). Altius holds a diversified portfolio of royalty interests spanning potash, base and battery metals, electricity generation, iron ore, gold, lithium and nickel. According to the company, its royalty mines have, on average, remaining reserve lives of more than 35 years. Altius reported 2025 attributable royalty revenue of $69.9-million, up from $64-million in 2024, with contributions from base metals, potash, electricity generation and iron ore.
Notably, Altius holds six Saskatchewan potash mine royalties where operators Nutrien and Mosaic have grown combined production from about 11 million tonnes in 2014 to an estimated 17 million tonnes in 2025, increasing global market share from 18 to 24 per cent. Of all the fertilizers, the supply of urea is impacted the most by the Middle East conflict.
Global potash supply probably should not be taken for granted, given that Iran’s strategic partner, Russia, accounted for about 20 per cent of global exports in 2024, according to Natural Resources Canada. Despite the potash supply risk, Altius stock has tumbled 8.8 per cent over the past month as of Friday. Insiders have been buying the pullback. Three insiders who are either an officer or director spent just over $317,000 buying shares in the public market in the past week.
Regime change has received a lot of attention in this war. A key change insiders appear to be signalling is one where the world will likely confront higher prices for key commodities for longer.
Ted Dixon is CEO of INK Research which provides insider news and knowledge to investors. He owns shares in ARC Resources.