On January 5, Javed Mirza, managing director of quantitative/technical strategy at Raymond James, published his 2026 outlook for equity markets and highlighted 16 North American stock ideas.
Looking ahead, he expects the S&P 500 may deliver a 16 per cent return in 2026, closing out the year at 7,940. However, he notes that gains may not occur until the fourth quarter as the first 10 months of the second year of the four-year U.S. presidential election cycle have historically seen “choppy consolidation” or fluctuating sideways action.
Raymond James technical analyst flags a corrective phase ahead as a buying opportunity
He expects a sustainable rally may take hold in November and extend into the second half of 2027 or first half of 2028, at which point rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve may led to the end of the secular bull market for stocks.
Based on his analysis for the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the recent breakout to record highs is a “strong technical positive” with the next technical target marked around 35,000.
For 2026, 16 Canadian and U.S. stocks made his best ideas list. They are Aflac AFL-N, Avery Dennison AVY-N, Canadian National Railway CNR-T, Diamondback Energy FANG-Q, FedEx FDX-N, First Citizens BancShares FCNCA-Q, Global Life GL-N, Granite REIT GRT-UN-T, Interfor IFP-T, Ivanhoe Mines IVN-T, Jack Henry & Associates JKHY-Q, J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT-Q, Packaging Corporation of America PKG-N, Prologis PLD-N, Stella-Jones SJ-T and Targa Resources TRGP-N.
Last year, Mr. Mirza accurately anticipated the S&P/TSX Composite Index would outperform the S&P 500 in his 2025 outlook report.
He noted that the S&P/TSX Composite Index had an initial technical target of 27,500 and a breakout above this level could extend the rally to the next resistance level, which he pegged at 30,000. By the end of the third quarter, the TSX Index closed above 30,000.
However, his technical analysis for the S&P 500 proved to be too conservative. He expected a very modest gain for the index with his 2025 year-end target set at 5,935. The S&P500 closed at the year roughly 900 points above this target.
His closed list of 2025 best ideas posted a 6.9-per-cent return. Amongst the top contributors were Athabasca Oil ATH-T, The Estée Lauder Companies EL-N, International Petroleum IPCO-T, Peyto Exploration & Development PEY-T and Tamarack Valley Energy TVE-T. Amongst the detractors were Tourmaline Oil TOU-T and North American Construction Group NOA-T.