North American markets end down, but off lows, as oil rallies again
- Stocks fell on Tuesday as investors worried about how long the Middle East conflict may persist and its impact on inflation as oil prices extended gains. But indexes ended well off the day’s lows, especially on Wall Street, where the Dow was earlier down 1,200 points.
- Selling was broad-based, with materials down the most among the major sectors for both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index. The mining-heavy sector was down 7.2% in Toronto.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 403.51 points, or 0.83%, to 48,501.27, the S&P 500 lost 64.99 points, or 0.94%, to 6,816.63 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 232.17 points, or 1.02%, to 22,516.69.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended down 756.33 points, or 2.2%, at 33,784.94. It was its biggest decline since Feb. 12. The Canadian index had just closed at a record high on Monday and was vulnerable to profit-taking, particularly with gold prices easing on Tuesday.
- Heavily weighted financials lost 1.3% in Toronto and industrials ended 0.9% lower. Technology was the only one of 10 major sectors to end higher. It rose 1.2%, helped by a gain of 4.9% for Constellation Software.
- U.S. gold futures settled 3.5% lower at US$5,123.70 with a continued rise in the U.S. dollar - a safe haven for many investors - hurting the commodity.
- Brent futures settled up $3.66, or up 4.7%, at US$81.40 a barrel, its highest settlement since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up US$3.33, or 4.7%, at US$74.56, the highest settlement since June.
03/03/26 17:15
Galaxy Digital to delist from TSX and trade only on the Nasdaq
- Jameson Berkow
Canada’s main stock exchange is losing another listing.
Galaxy Digital Inc. GLXY-T, the self-described “Goldman Sachs of crypto,” announced plans Tuesday to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange as of March 19. Citing “additional associated expenses and administrative requirements,” Galaxy said it would be more efficient to maintain its public listing solely on the Nasdaq exchange.
The departure of Galaxy to southern pastures is a loss for TSX parent TMX Group Ltd. X-T and for the country more broadly given that the company represented the quintessential Canadian public market success story. Galaxy is leaving as Canadian issuers are increasingly being taken private amid a decades-long decline in the number of publicly-listed operating businesses globally.
- Read more: Galaxy Digital to delist from TSX
03/03/26 15:08
More Canadian fund managers reveal what they’ve been buying today
- Brenda Bouw
I have a couple more portfolio changes to report from Canadian fund managers today.
Daymon Loeb, partner and chief executive officer at Ravenstone Capital Management Inc. in Toronto, says that while his team isn’t making any major portfolio changes at this time, he says it has been using cash on hand to add to core holdings isuch as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT-Q), Visa Inc. (V-N), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI-N) and Brookfield Corp. (BN-T).
“Despite negative market sentiment, the long-term fundamentals of these companies remain intact,” he says.
Meanwhile, Paul Carter, chief investment officer at Capstone Asset Management Inc. in Langley, B.C., says that in his Canadian equity portfolios, he’s using cash to add to “high conviction positions that have underperformed” such as Open Text Corp. (OTEX-T) and B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T).
In his U.S. equity portfolios, he’s adding to more defensive names, including Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (PBH-N).
For my complete rundown on how Canadian fund managers are reacting to this week’s market turmoil, click here
03/03/26 14:54
Investors make a dash for cash
LSEG Lipper data showed global money market funds received US$47.9 billion in inflows on Monday, the highest since February 17, as investors sought refuge in short-term cash-like instruments.
By contrast, investors reduced exposure to equities, pulling US$9.6 billion from U.S.-focused equity funds, while global equity funds witnessed an outflow of US$9.1 billion on Monday, the highest in more than two months.
“There’s an interesting flight to quality happening, with the dollar rallying, but it’s not going to Treasuries or other dollar assets,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. “That’s indicative of growing demand for short-term cash.”
Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management in New York, said billions of dollars had gone into listed gold funds this year, and outflows had been small on Monday but could potentially be sizeable.
“I think in the case of gold, you’re seeing some profit taking, and you’re seeing just some liquidity, a cash raise, using gold as a liquid alternative hedge, in order to potentially offset margin calls, to offset stopped-out long positions and so forth.
“The focus has to be on the immediacy of when there’s a real geopolitical shock or when there’s very massive market uncertainty; your cash is king still,” Doshi said.
- Reuters
03/03/26 13:55
Algos and still buying the dip: More strategists react to today’s selloff
- Darcy Keith
More reaction from strategists is coming across our news desk. Here are some of them, including an explanation for why stocks were hit so badly at the open, but are now retracing some of those losses:
JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET CAPITAL, WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA
“I’ve been looking at data from the last 9 military actions we’ve seen over the last 20 years – Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Russia in Ukraine, October 7th in Israel, the Russia-Georgia war, the events of last summer in Iran – and it shows that inflation expectations tend to peak in the first 20 trading days after these start, and finish sometimes below the levels where they had started. So I think time’s on our side. Right now, though, it’s all about uncertainty. The broadening trade is doing better, at least on a relative basis, with value outperforming growth. But overall, risk appetites are lower as Iran hits out at non-military targets with drones, and go after regional oil facilities while trying to inflict chaos.”
STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT
“While I was somewhat surprised by the timing of the Iran attack, I was far more surprised by yesterday’s stock market reaction. I can’t imagine that many market participants had ‘up day’ on their bingo card for ‘Iran bombing and Straits of Hormuz closure,’ so I was very curious to see whether our customers were buyers or sellers into the anomalous reaction (today’s selloff is the more natural response, exacerbated by yesterday’s relative yawn). It appears that for the most part, they sold the bounce. The net stock activity over the past few days shows that our customers were indeed buying dips last week but took advantage of the stunning bounce off yesterday’s opening lows to lighten up positions.”
MARK HACKETT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, NATIONWIDE, PHILADELPHIA
“I’m encouraged by the action the past two days. This would be a great excuse for a substantial drawdown, but most of the pain was at the open driven by algos, with recoveries throughout both Monday and Tuesday, reminding us of the resilience of the market and the buy the dip instinct. We remain in a very tight trading range since December, and the lack of downside breakout is, so far, telling. We are in a dynamic environment, but unless there is a significant escalation, the market remains resilient.”
- With reports from Reuters
03/03/26 13:31
Investors are bargain hunting in software stocks
- David Berman
When major stock market indexes were pummeled early today, and even gold offered no protection from the broad selloff, one corner of the market rallied: Software stocks.
In Canada, Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) was up 3.9 per cent in midday trading, even as the S&P/TSX Composite Index slumped 2.5 per cent. Open Text Corp. (OTEX-T) gained 1.1 per cent.
In the United States, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV-A) gained 0.8 per cent.
The upward nudges follow a deep selloff among companies deemed by some investors to be potential casualties to artificial intelligence. As the bearish case goes, AI can disrupt businesses with cheap and easy workarounds.
This case has gained a significant foothold, given the severe declines in some stocks over the past year. Constellation’s share price, for example, has essentially been cut in half.
But not everyone is buying into the dominance of AI.
Michael Burry, the U.S. investor made famous in “The Big Short” with his money-spinning bet against the U.S. housing market before the financial crisis in 2008, made headlines last year with his bet against the AI theme.
He has sold short Nvidia Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc., according to reports, (meaning that he will profit if the share prices decline), based on his view that valuations are at bubble-like levels.
Now, he may be taking another approach by scooping up AI casualties on the cheap, and inspiring other bargain-hunting investors to make similar bets on a rebound.
On X, the Michael Burry Stock Tracker, which tracks hedge funds and has over 462,000 followers, reported Tuesday that Mr. Burry “went long” Adobe (ADBE-Q).
The stock was up 3 per cent in afternoon trading, though still down nearly 40 per cent over the past year. If the bet here is that the stock is cheap, it still is – and some investors may be taking notice.
03/03/26 12:58
Four stocks Canadian fund manager John Zechner has been buying today on the selloff
- Brenda Bouw
I’ve been busily contacting Canadian fund managers today to see what shifts they are making - if any - in their portfolios.
Here’s an interesting response from John Zechner, chairman and lead equity manager at Toronto-based J. Zechner Associates Inc.:
“We had high cash weights in the portfolio so we have been adding to positions in this weakness. Today we were buying some gold stocks (Barrick ABX-T and Torex Gold Resources (TXG-T) on the big selloff as well as adding to some tech stocks ( Microsoft MSFT-Q) and Salesforce CRM-N) on this recent weakness.
“Not selling any stocks in the portfolio today but we are selling our position in long-term U.S. bonds (TLT-Q) on the rally in bonds in the past month and in the U.S. dollar over the past few days. We are concerned that higher oil prices will keep inflation elevated and therefore reduce ability of central banks to cut interest rates in line with market expectations.”
03/03/26 12:25
‘Today is a golden opportunity’: What market strategists are saying as stocks sell off
Here’s what some U.S. market strategists are saying as markets sell off again today.
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:
“Markets are acting rationally about the effects of higher energy prices on the global economy. Many worry that the inflationary impact will take away the lower interest rates the markets were counting on in 2026. The VIX seems to be topping out around the October high, which signals to me that investors are a little skeptical that energy prices will rise more from here.”
EDWARD B. O’GORMAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, RIVER WEALTH ADVISORS LLC, CAMP HILL, PENNSYLVANIA:
“Today is a golden opportunity for investors to reposition into our investment theme for 2026 of bet on the economy and go underweight tech. Today is a day that the market is showing some increased fear, which is usually a buying opportunity. We bought emerging markets today after the big selloff.
“We expect countries around the globe will collaborate and put a plan in place to stabilize the oil markets. The costs are too high if not.”
CHUCK CARLSON, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, HORIZON INVESTMENT SERVICES, HAMMOND, INDIANA:
“Today, the biggest issue that (investors) are trying to weigh gets back to the intertwining of inflation and interest rates.
“That’s the difference between today and yesterday. There seems to be some notion that perhaps (the Iran war) will persist longer than people thought 24 hours ago, because it’s spreading and starting to potentially impact energy infrastructure. Are energy prices going to remain elevated for a longer period of time than people thought yesterday and then does that pass through?”
ALEX MORRIS, CEO AND CIO, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON, DC:
“I think this is a direct reflection of the administration’s uncoordinated response. …The market is now reacting that, OK, this isn’t actually going to be a three-day, one-week initiative. This is going to drag on a little longer. ...
“We weren’t exactly running around saying things were cheap a few weeks ago. Things were already a little expensive. The market was always kind of looking for an excuse to let some of the air out of the balloon.”
QUE NGUYEN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, EQUITY STRATEGIES, RESEARCH AFFILIATES, NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA:
“What typically happens in a Middle East crisis is that markets see a drawdown of 10% to 20% before they start to turn around. Right now we’re only off 2% so far, so this could be a much longer ride. That’s especially true because in the past when we have entered into conflicts, there was always an exit plan, even if we couldn’t execute it smoothly. This time, it’s not really clear how we are going to extricate ourselves from this.”
-Reuters
03/03/26 12:17
Gold retreats on strong dollar, tempered rate-cut bets
Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday, weighed by a stronger dollar and dimming prospects for rate cuts as inflation concerns intensified amid fears of a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict.
Spot gold was down 3.9% at US$5,121.69 an ounce at midday. Prices hit an over four-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures lost 3.4% to $5,132.60.
“The move lower in gold appears to be driven by a flight to liquidity - a flight to cash. We have a strong dollar and bond yields trading higher,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
The U.S. dollar, a competing safe-haven asset, posted sharp gains, making dollar-priced bullion less affordable for holders of other currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields rose for a second consecutive session.
“However, this dip in prices is likely to be short-lived, and flight to safety flows driven by geopolitical risk should support higher gold and silver prices,” Haberkorn added.
Despite being considered a hedge against inflation and turmoil, gold is typically preferred in low-rate environments, as it yields no interest. Spot gold has gained over 18% so far this year, supported by global turmoil, following a 64% surge in 2025. Meanwhile, silver was up 16% so far this year.
Spot silver Tuesday fell about 7% to $83.25 an ounce after climbing to a more than four-week high on Monday.
- Reuters
03/03/26 12:01
U.S.-Iran conflict is only one of nine wildcards that could upend markets in 2026
- Scott Barlow
Citi put a marketing push behind a new report featuring over 20 analysts detailing potential outlier events that could completely upend global markets. They emphasized that none of the scenarios is a base case but they are likely enough for investor consideration. The report is called “Wildcards: Tail Risks in an increasingly Fragile World”.
There are nine wildcards: global fragmentation, the narrative of the foreign buyer strike of U.S. Treasuries, faster pace of renminbi appreciation, Monroe Doctrine extreme, U.S.-Iran War or Iranian civil conflict (now unfolding, obviously), the end of the yen carry trade triggering structural trade unwinds, a bursting AI bubble, AI hits credit and EU exceptionalism.
The first four are trade-related and involve the changing relationship between the U.S. and the world (that’s the most charitable way I can describe it). A lack of foreign buyers for Treasuries would, of course, cause a U.S. economic catastrophe of spiking bond yields and sharply lower equities and currency.
The AI bubble bursting and AI-related credit issues have been covered before in my Market Factors newsletter and I doubt European equities are of much interest to Canadian investors, at least so far.
The unwinding of the Japanese carry trade - the boogeyman under the bed for global investors for decades - is the one that interests me most. Citi analyst Osamu Takashima thinks rising Japanese bond yields could push the yen much higher. This would force speculative investors that have borrowed money in yen to buy U.S. and other western assets to sell the assets and pay back the loan.
The scale of the yen carry trade is difficult to gauge and the source of apocalyptic guesses. Citi estimates the total at around ¥1,500-trillion or just under US$9.5-trillion. A sell-off on that scale would be problematic to say the least.
03/03/26 11:39
Bond yields are coming off their highs
- Darcy Keith
Government bond markets from the euro zone to the United States and Canada were selling off sharply today as the air war in the Middle East drove oil and gas prices higher and rekindled inflation fears.
But as the North American trading day progresses, losses in the bond market are starting to ease.
At 1118 ET, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield is up only a couple basis points, to 4.07 per cent. It had been up to near 4.12 per cent early today. Falling yields means bond prices are rising.
Canada’s 10-year yield is up about 5 basis points at 3.268 per cent, after peaking at about 3.31 per cent.
The MOVE Index, often called the “VIX of bonds,” is also coming off its highs. Some calmness seems to be entering credit markets.
Bond yields started rising notably Monday as equities sold off, underscoring that bonds rarely maintain their safe-haven status during episodes of high inflation.
Still, with equities down so much today, there could be some diversification into bonds going on. High demand for bonds will usually pressure yields to come down.
Sustained higher inflation would likely force central banks to turn more hawkish. Traders have lowered their bets on near-term rate cuts from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve and priced in a small chance of a European Central Bank hike by year-end. And on Monday, bond markets virtually erased any bets that the Bank of Canada would further cut interest rates this year.
With reports from Reuters
03/03/26 10:52
Oil shock finally hits global markets
- Tim Shufelt
If you, like me, were puzzled about Monday’s stock market action, today makes a lot more sense.
The rapidly expanding conflict in the world’s biggest oil-producing region has the potential to seriously disrupt global supply. Should the conflict last more than three weeks, which is how it’s shaping up, oil inventories in the Persian Gulf would be exhausted and producers would have no choice but to cease pumping oil, JPMorgan analysts said.
When oil shocks hit, stock markets crack
In that scenario, US$100-a-barrel oil would be likely to follow. That is tough to reconcile with the fact that North American stocks turned positive by the end of trading yesterday.
Oil shocks have a long history of dragging the economy and the stock market down with them. Investors seem to have awakened to that possibility today.
While the energy crisis of the 1970s seems like an eternity ago, the world is no less dependent on Middle East oil today than it was back then.
There’s an old rule of thumb that oil prices need to at least double over a one-year period to spark a recession. That’s still a very distant prospect, but now is the time to start contemplating worst-case scenarios.
03/03/26 10:43
TSX joins global sell-off, falling 3.5 per cent
Canada’s main stock index fell on Tuesday amid sector-wide losses, joining a global market slide driven by inflation fears as the Middle East conflict entered its fourth day.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 1,221.72 points, or 3.54 per cent, at 33,319.55 as of 10:43 a.m. ET, and looked set for its steepest single-day drop since April 2025, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.
Leading the sector-wide losses, the global gold index slumped 10.4 per cent and the materials sector, which includes metal miners, dropped 9.4 per cent.
Miners First Majestic and AYA Gold & Silver plunged more than 13 per cent each, while Capstone Copper slumped 13.3 per cent after reporting quarterly profit below estimates after the bell on Monday.
Spot gold fell more than 4 per cent, while silver dropped more than 9 per cent as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid escalations in the Middle East conflict.
- Reuters
03/03/26 10:13
Wall Street falls 2 per cent as Middle East conflict stokes inflation worries
Wall Street’s main indexes fell more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting its lowest in over two months, as investors braced for the impact of a widening Middle East conflict on oil prices, inflation and global trade.
Tehran’s threat to attack any vessel attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, combined with production halts by several Middle Eastern oil and gas producers, has driven up global shipping rates and prices of crude and natural gas.
The strait, a critical chokepoint, carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption.
“Investors worry about additional inflation coming down the road. The main concern is that (oil prices) goes to over $100 a barrel and stays there,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
“Hopefully this will be a quick and decisive war. But there are just a lot of questions, so I wouldn’t go out on a limb.”
Industries such as airlines and travel that are exposed to crude prices were knocked back for a second day. Delta and Royal Caribbean fell about 3 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.
At 9:50 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,083.69 points, or 2.22 per cent, to 47,821.09, the S&P 500 lost 141.91 points, or 2.06 per cent, to 6,739.71 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 483.41 points, or 2.12 per cent, to 22,265.45.
- Reuters
03/03/26 09:42
Some ‘strategic’ investment ideas from David Rosenberg amid the market selloff
- Darcy Keith
While there’s certainly a sense of unease in markets this morning, investors aren’t fearfully dashing for the exit in droves – at least not yet. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is sitting at about 26 as the trading day gets underway, up a couple points from yesterday – but no where close to levels above 50 seen during the Liberation Day presentation last year of Trump’s tariffs. Contrarians would suggest the VIX would need to get much higher before there’s true capitulation – the point at which we reach maximum pessimism and investors have historically been wise to put money back into the market.
Be that as it may, investors no doubt are looking for opportunities in this selloff. Economist David Rosenberg, in his morning newsletter, has some ideas on countries and sectors to ponder, stressing that this “is a time to be strategic, not to be a hero”:
“China (the Shanghai Composite at down 1.4 per cent, or less than half the carnage today across the continent) continues to outperform as its energy security is in far better shape after last year’s oil stockpiling move of cheap and sanctioned crude. The country can likely withstand four months of this global oil market constraint — not to mention the valve China enjoys from Russia and Kazakhstan… all of a sudden, Beijing’s push to renewable energy sources like solar is paying off. Remember, China also came out as a winner from the Supreme Court decision, with its tariff rate cut to 10 per cent under Section 122 from the average 20 per cent under IEEPA.”
“As for airline, travel and leisure stocks (the share of global flights heading to the Mideast has doubled in the past two decades to nearly 6 per cent) — they will undoubtedly remain in the penalty box until this war ends (though a pair-trade here may make sense in terms of going long the domestic regional carriers and short the internationally-exposed airlines), but at that point, a post-COVID type of buying opportunity is likely to present itself.”
“Until then, global investors should be focused on China as far as regions are concerned, and oil-producing countries (Mexico, Canada, Norway, Brazil) — though in a relative sense. Though being long the U.S. market relative to the rest of the world (in a reversal of what has happened these past fifteen months) makes sense too, because what makes America different is that it produces nearly all the natural gas it consumes.”
“As far as equity sectors are concerned, among the sectors that are not correlated with the oil price (or market interest rates for now), Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples can be added to the exposures in Energy, Gold, Miners, and, of course, Defense companies. This is a time to be super-selective and focused on hedging risk and engaging in pair-trade relative strength strategies (as in, long Consumer Staples and shorting Discretionary). Even getting more granular, one can entertain the notion of shorting Germany against the European equity basket, seeing as the country is, by far, the largest gas consumer, and its storage levels are down to a razor-thin 21 per cent of its capacity.”
03/03/26 09:35
North American stock markets drop on inflation, trade concerns
North America’s main indexes opened sharply lower on Tuesday as investors braced for the impact of a widening conflict in the Middle East on inflation and global trade.
At 9:32 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 2.26 per cent at 33,682.61 points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 411.7 points, or 0.84 per cent, at the open to 48,493.11. The S&P 500 fell 81.4 points, or 1.18 per cent, at the open to 6,800.26, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 456.5 points, or 2.01 per cent, to 22,292.37 at the opening bell.
- Reuters
03/03/26 09:26
Canadian dollar weakens, benchmark yield climbs
The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback on Tuesday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed.
The loonie was trading 0.2 per cent lower at $1.3707 to the greenback, or 72.96 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of $1.3661 to 1.3722.
Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 7.5 basis points to 3.296 per cent. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt rose to 4.1036 per cent.
- Reuters
03/03/26 08:59
Oil shock could strain emerging markets beyond inflation, analysts say
The war in Iran and the resulting surge in energy prices will impact emerging markets well beyond inflation to broader pressures on external balances, currencies and capital flows, analysts warn.
Brokerages, including J.P.Morgan and Bernstein, expect Brent prices to rise above the US$100 mark if the conflict continues as Tehran has vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz and said it would fire on any ship trying to pass the crucial shipping route for oil and gas.
Brent crude futures were up US$5.63, or 7.2 per cent, at US$83.36 a barrel after touching their highest since July 2024 at US$85.12.
“A mere 10-per-cent rise in oil prices can deteriorate current account balances (for emerging markets) by 40-60 basis points. Prolonged increases would only deepen these deficits,” analysts at ING said in a note, adding that Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines are the most exposed.
Goldman Sachs estimates that a supply driven jump in Brent crude from US$70 to US$85 would add roughly 0.7 percentage points to inflation across emerging Asia and knock about 0.5 points off economic growth, while widening current account deficits across almost every economy in the region, particularly Thailand, Singapore and South Korea.
Citigroup warned that a prolonged oil shock could “aggressively de-anchor” inflation expectations across emerging markets, with low-reserve countries such as Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Turkey facing heightened risks of capital outflows and currency slides.
Separately, J.P. Morgan’s analysts moved EMEA emerging market foreign exchange to “marketweight” on Tuesday and added Poland’s zloty to their list of “underweight” currencies.
- Reuters
03/03/26 08:05
Scotia analyst: These companies set to benefit from feds’ high speed rail plans
- Scott Barlow
Scotiabank analyst Patrick Bryden attempted to uncover the winners from the federal government’s high speed rail project,
“In September 2025, the Alto high-speed rail project was identified by the Government of Canada as a transformative strategy to be part of its Building Canada initiatives. The $60 billion-$90 billion project is the largest (nominal and inflation adjusted) ever undertaken in Canada’s history. Alto will create a modern 1,000 km transportation system in the country’s most populous economic corridor, from Toronto to Quebec City, and was confirmed in late 2025 with the support of the Major Projects Office (MPO) … Shovels in the ground expected by 2029-2030; the project is also expected to generate 50,000 jobs to construct the various segments of the route over a decade or more … the six-member Cadence Consortium has been selected by the Government of Canada as the developer partner for the project … AtkinsRealis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) is part of Cadence. Design and engineering comprise 13 per cent of precedent capital budgets, which, in theory, equate to annual net revenue over the next decade of 3.4-5.2 per cent of ATRL’s current annual revenue.
“We have estimated the amount of iron ore and steel required to complete the project and calculated how much of both commodities are likely required for all the major projects and transformative strategies confirmed by the Government of Canada to date. We expect such demand to be 6 per cent higher on an annual basis over the next decade. Sourcing domestically could be an emergent tailwind for iron ore producers Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. (LIF-T) and Champion Iron Ltd. (CIA-T), steel players Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL-T; not covered), Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T), and Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) for steel structures and pressure-treated wood materials … e believe Alto may potentially raise demand for equipment and service providers such as Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T), Wajax Corporation (WJX-T), and RB Global, Inc. (RBA-T; coverage suspended), and for construction-related interests such as Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T; not covered), Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T; not covered), and Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T; not covered).”
03/03/26 08:02
Retailer Pet Valu reports fourth-quarter profit up from year earlier, raises dividend
Markham, Ont.-based Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) raised its dividend as it reported a fourth-quarter profit of $29.4-million and a more than 10-per-cent increase in revenue compared with a year earlier.
The pet food and pet supply retailer says it will now pay a quarterly dividend of 13 cents per share, up from 12 cents per share.
The increased payment to shareholders came as the company said it earned 42 cents per diluted share for the 14-week period ended Jan. 3. The result compared with a profit of $28.9-million or 40 cents per diluted share for the 13-week period ended Dec. 28, 2024.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $326.4-million, up from $295.1-million, helped in part by the extra week. Excluding the extra week, Pet Valu says revenue totalled $305.5-million in its fourth quarter of 2025.
- The Canadian Press
03/03/26 07:50
Stocks selloff worsens as energy price jump revives inflation fears
A person stands in front of an electronic stock board with Japan's stock prices in Tokyo Tuesday, March 3.Shingo Fukuma/The Associated Press
A selloff in stocks and government bonds deepened while the dollar strengthened on Tuesday, as widening conflict in the Middle East fuelled a spike in energy prices and raised investor concern about inflation.
U.S. S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 1.4 per cent while Nasdaq e-mini futures fell 1.8 per cent, suggesting the selloff may engulf Wall Street later following a volatile session on Monday that saw the S&P 500 rally from an early slide to close flat and the Nasdaq Composite climb 0.4 per cent.
In Europe the STOXX 600 fell as much as 3.6 per cent in morning trading and was last down 2.8 per cent - on track for its biggest daily decline since April - following a 1.7 per cent drop on Monday.
Meanwhile, government bond markets from the euro zone to the United States and Britain sold off sharply on concerns that sustained higher inflation would likely force central banks to turn more hawkish.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump sought to justify a broad, open-ended war on Iran, saying the campaign was ahead of expectations.
In natural gas markets, benchmark European LNG prices leapt by 34 per cent, having jumped 39 per cent on Monday, while U.S. natural gas futures were up nearly 6 per cent.
Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on Monday, prompting precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East. Qatari LNG production makes up about 20 per cent of global supply. An official from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to marine traffic and the country would fire on any ship trying to pass.
Brent crude futures tacked on another 8.9 per cent to $84.64 on Tuesday, up more than 16 per cent on the week.
- Reuters
03/03/26 07:35
RBC commodity strategist expects $100 crude if conflict continues
- Scott Barlow
RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft sees oil reaching US$100 per barrel if the Iran conflict continues,
“Energy is now clearly in the crosshairs of the Iran war, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and key facilities directly targeted including Qatar’s LNG operations. The ultimate price trajectory will hinge on the duration and degree of disruption posed by the conflict, but Iran’s drone capabilities and missile stockpiles suggest that market participants should potentially prepare for cascading outages. In a prolonged conflict scenario, we see oil prices reaching into the $100s per barrel, as we and regional exports warned, and global gas prices could at least hit their highest since Q1 2023 (post the 2022 highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine). The lack of secure alternative export routes could render the majority of the Middle East’s energy exports stranded assets if there is no viable plan to incentivize shipping companies and insurers to move tankers through the Strait. We see the rise in European gas prices, i.e., TTF, as a more accurate reflection of the true risk profile from this conflict than the more
modest run-up in oil prices currently. At this stage, we view oil prices as a lagging rather than a leading indicator of the potential supply shock risk posed by an extended conflict”
03/03/26 07:32
Scotiabank strategist recommends these Quality-at-a-Reasonable-Price stocks
- Scott Barlow
Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie is recommending quality at a reasonable price stocks,
“A less risk-on market environment should favor Quality, especially given the length and scale of its recent underperformance. We would note two caveats though. First, if the start of a new Quality cycle typically sees strong performance from Top Quality names, it does not necessarily translate to top over bottom Quality outperformance (see exhibit 9), especially in the US. Moreover, while top Quality prevails more visibly vs. bottom Quality in Canada, a sustained commodity trade might keep investors interested in resource “quant junk” and make the average lie. Second, adding a Value twist to our Quality recommendation should help improve performance given this remains a risk-on market”
The stocks are Metro, Atco, Wesdome Gold Mines, Altagas, IGM Financial, CIBC, TD Bank, CCL Industries, Saputo, Centerra Gold, OceanaGold, Royal Bank, Peyto Exploration and Development, Headwater Exploration, Quebecor, Gibson Energy, Canadian Tire, Stella-Jones, Imperial Oil, Fairfax Financial Holdings, Suncor Energy, Keyera, Bank of Nova Scotia, Primaris REIT, Finning, Bank of Montreal, Russel Metals, Endeavour Mining PLC, Parex Resources and CES Energy Solutions .
03/03/26 06:32
Tuesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
- David Leeder
The Bank of Nova Scotia is pictured in the financial district in Toronto, Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.Andrew Lahodynskyj/The Canadian Press
TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca thinks Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) has made “significant strides” in improving its return on equity, however he’s “increasingly concerned” it will “lag its peers as investor focus shifts toward balance sheet growth.”
That prompted him to downgrade his rating to “hold” from “buy” previously, believing its current valuation “adequately reflects the bank’s improving ROE profile after recent re-rating.”
Read more: Here
Other companies mentioned include: AbraSilver; Agnico; Atco; BMO; CIBC; Canadian Utilities; EQB; Evertz; Kinross; K92 Mining; National Bank; Newmont; Power Corp.; RBC
03/03/26 05:54
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- Justin Dallaire
A sell-off in stocks deepened as widening conflict in the Middle East fueled a spike in energy prices that raised investor concern about the impact on the global economy.
Wall Street futures were in the red after the major U.S. stock indexes bounced back from early losses to finish the day higher on Monday. Dow futures were down 1.45 per cent, S&P 500 futures were down 1.54 per cent, and Nasdaq futures were down 2 per cent, as of 4:28 a.m. ET
TSX futures were lower after Canada’s main stock index ended Monday’s session at a record high.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Baytex Energy Corp. and Topaz Energy Corp.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Alibaba ADR, CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., Macy’s Inc., and Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
Read more: Here
03/03/26 05:39
U.S. dollar advances as Middle East tensions spur flight to safety
The U.S. dollar extended gains on Tuesday as the deepening conflict in the Middle East prompted a flight to safety, spurred a jump in oil prices and heightened inflation concerns.
The euro and the yen remained under pressure, weighed down by their countries’ reliance on energy imports and uncertainty over how central banks might respond to renewed price pressures.
While the dollar’s status as a dependable safe haven has been questioned over the past year, it has benefited from the latest bout of risk aversion.
“As a major oil producer with the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. is likely to be seen as a safe haven for investor funds,” said Schwab Center for Financial Research’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones.
The euro slid to its lowest level against the dollar since January and was last down 0.74 per cent at $1.1603. Against the yen, the dollar strengthened 0.22 per cent to 157.68 yen.
- Reuters
03/03/26 05:03
Wall Street futures fall as Middle East conflict stokes inflation worries
A selloff in stocks deepened and the dollar strengthened on Tuesday, as widening conflict in the Middle East fuelled a spike in energy prices that raised investor concern about the impact on the global economy.
Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index fell 2.7 per cent in early trading - on track for its biggest daily decline since April - following a 1.7 per cent drop on Monday.
U.S. S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 1.6 per cent, suggesting the selloff may engulf Wall Street later following a volatile session on Monday that saw the S&P 500 rally from an early decline to close flat and the Nasdaq Composite climb 0.4 per cent.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump sought to justify a broad, open-ended war on Iran, saying the campaign was ahead of expectations.
Front and centre on traders’ minds is a dramatic surge in oil and natural gas.
“For Western Europe, the most notable development is another surge in natural gas prices... which is bringing back quite a lot of fears of potentially a repeat of what we saw in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
- Reuters
03/03/26 04:58
Oil rises as expanding U.S.-Israel war with Iran heightens supply risks
Brent rose more than US$3 on Tuesday for a third day of gains as the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region.
Brent crude futures were at US$80.89 a barrel, up US$3.15, or 4.1 per cent, by 3:45 a.m. ET. On Monday, the contract surged to as high as US$82.37, its highest since January 2025, though it pared those gains to settle 6.7 per cent higher.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed US$2.55, or 3.6 per cent, to US$73.78 a barrel. In the previous session, the contract initially climbed to its highest since June 2025 before sliding back to settle up 6.3 per cent.
“With no quick de-escalation in sight, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Iran showing a willingness to target energy infrastructure in the region, upside risks remain and they grow the longer the conflict drags on,” Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst, said in a note.
- Reuters