Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Ahead of the release of a technical report for its Vicuña joint venture with BHP Group Ltd. on the Chile-Argentina border, Haywood Securities’ Pierre Vaillancourt raised his recommendation Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously to “reflect the potential that could be demonstrated from the mine economics of the project."
His revision comes after a meeting with CEO Jack Lundin last week to discuss the outlook for the company, in particular for Vicuña. “Encouraged” by the progress, he now expects the report to be released in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 alongside a financing strategy to be followed by more detailed engineering, which may lead to a construction decision in 2027 and the start of production in the early 2030.
“The JV is working to finalize the application for RIGI in Argentina, which will provide incentives for 30-40 years of stability and tax certainty, in support of President Milei’s focus on developing the private sector of the country,” he said in a client note titled Going All in on Vicuña . “Work [is] ongoing. There are 9 drills turning at site, and the program is actively adding tonnes at Filo del Sol, which contains gold, copper and silver oxide resources, as well as a sulphide resource. Metallurgical and hydrology testwork are ongoing to support throughput, grade and recovery improvements.”
“Jack Lundin mentioned the scale of operations at Vicuña of 175,000 tons per day, up from previous plans of 150ktpd, starting at Josemaria and integrating Filo del Sol in a second phase. The JV will leverage the location of Vicuña by making use of its existing assets in the area, using port facilities in Chile, and getting power from Argentina.”
Mr. Vaillancourt also suggested further expansion could be ahead for the Toronto-based company.
“Jack Lundin mentioned how the Lundin group is closely following Faraday’s (FDYT, not rated) Copper Creek project in Arizona, where the family trust has a 15-per-cent interest,” he said. “While not a priority for now, Copper Creek could eventually become part of LUN’s Made in America strategy in the heart of copper country, adding to its U.S. operations at the Eagle mine in Michigan. A partnership with BHP, who own the past producing Kalamazoo mine, located 100km away, and who is considering re-opening the mine as an underground operation, is an option.”
Noting Lundin’s valuation premium is “warranted given the long-term outlook for the company, diversified asset base and steady cash flow profile,” he hiked his target to $22.50 from $16.50. The average is $17.81.
“The stock is not cheap, and this target is at the upper end of the peer group but is supported by a resilient copper price and consistent production,” he noted. “We recognize the stock is up 57 per cent year-to-date, so near term upside is limited in the context of a flat production profile for the next few years. On the other hand, LUN is part of a small group of larger metals producers that will get attention from a broader investor base. Ultimately, we believe that while it will take time, it will pay to wait for the Vicuña project to come into focus and become the cornerstone of the company, as it pursues its most ambitious growth phase yet.”
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Following a site visit to its flagship Kamoa-Kakula coppr complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Scotia Capital analyst Orest Wowkodaw upgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
"Although we await a formal 2026-2027 guidance update this fall and an updated LOM [life-of-mine] integrated development plan in Q1/26, we are now significantly more comfortable with the outlook for the operation following seismic induced flooding at the high-grade Kakula mine in May,“ said Mr. Wowkodaw. ”We now see an achievable pathway for the complex to yield markedly improved Cu output of 500kt in 2027 (vs. 420kt in 2026), growing to a sustainable more than 550ktpy by 2028. Overall, we view the update as positive for the shares.
“Although geopolitical risk is elevated and near-term performance is likely to be weak, our upgrade is based on an attractive relative P/NAV valuation and a strong 2027+ growth outlook. Given the dearth of investable Cu assets, we believe IVN shares are poised for a meaningful re-rating ahead.”
The analyst raised his target to $17 from $12.50. The average is $15.56.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison bumped his target to $16 from $13 with a “buy” rating.
"On September 19-21, we attended a tour of IVN’s Platreef and Kamoa-Kakula operations. The tour revealed significant progress in addressing the operational challenges at Kakula with dewatering progressing well, the power situation improving, and the smelter targeted to start up in November. We have made some minor estimate revisions and raised our target to $16 on higher NAV multiples," said Mr. Hutchison.
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In response to an agreement to be taken private in a friendly deal valued at $2.2-billion, a group of equity analysts on the Street revised their investment theses and ratings for shares of Dentalcorp Holdings Ltd. (DNTL-T).
On Friday, the Toronto-based company, which went public in 2021, soared 31.8 per cent after the premarket announcement it will be acquired by private equity firm GTCR for $11 in cash per share, a premium of approximately 33 per cent to both the closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.
“The offer price is approximately 15 times below our previous rounded price target of $13 per share based on 11.0 times/12.0 times IFRS/GAAP 2026 EBITDA estimates and our long-term outlook for the business,” said RBC Dominion Securities’ Douglas Miehm. “The implied multiple is slightly below those seen in 2024 go-private transactions for other roll-up platforms (NBLY and PLC).”
Mr. Miehm lowered his recommendation to “sector perform from ”outperform" previously and reduced his target to $11 to reflect the sale price from $13. The average target is $12, according to LSEG data.
"dentalcorp owns the largest network of dental practices across Canada by a wide margin, with a greater market share than the next four largest competitors in the Canadian space combined,“ he noted. ”dentalcorp has shown a strong track-record of excess growth in the attractive Canadian dental industry, which exhibits recurring revenues from Canadians who routinely seek dental care. Dental service expenditures are highly recurring in nature, and support revenue visibility for dentalcorp, which underpins its growth trajectory.
“Established and repeatable acquisition strategy supports financial outlook. dentalcorp’s business model is highly scalable, having exhibited a solid history of growth via acquisitions. Since its inception, the company has achieved double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, which has been driven by its acquisition activity. The Canadian dental industry remains largely unconsolidated, providing dentalcorp with a long runway for growth via acquisitions in the future. Furthermore, we believe the company’s unique value proposition to targeted independent dental practitioners supports ongoing consolidation.”
Elsewhere, others making revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to “tender” from “buy” with a $11 target, down from $12.75.
“We remain lukewarm on GTCR’s take-private transaction at $11.00 and feel the bid is opportunistic as CDCP headwinds are tapering off, M&A activity is picking up and DNTL has a predicable/resilient business model,” said Mr. Ho. “While the 12.4 times multiple may seem fair in the context of recent transactions and a 5–15 per cent higher offer price may be more reasonable, our valuation considers the termination of its strategic review in 2023 and secondary offering at $9.50.”
* ATB Capital Markets’ Frederico Gomes to “tender” from “outperform” with a $11 target, down from $12.
“Given the premium to VWAP, all-cash consideration that gives certainty of value and liquidity, reasonable break fees, and strategic rationale of the transaction as set out by the Company (including the option for Partner Dentists to roll over all or a portion of their shares), we anticipate the proposed transaction will likely be viewed favourably by shareholders,” said Mr. Gomes.
* CIBC’s Erin Kyle to “tender” from “outperformer” with a $11 target, down from $13.
"Given the level of committed shareholder support, combined with the takeout premium, we view the likelihood of a competing bid as low and expect the transaction to move forward," said Ms. Kyle.
* TD Cowen’s David Kwan to “sell” from “buy” with a $11 target, down from $13.
“Although we believe there is room for a superior bid, we think the 61-per-cent lock-up (56-per-cent irrevocable) significantly reduces that likelihood. Accordingly, we believe investors should tender to the offer,” he said.
* Jefferies’ Brian Tanquilut to “hold” from “buy” with a $11 target, down from $11.50.
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While acknowledging the third-quarter update from NFI Group Ltd. (NFI-T) "was disappointing and certainly does not help the optics of the execution story," Scotia Capital Jonathan Goldman sees the two main issues – delivery slippage and battery recall – as “prove temporary and have limited impact on the trajectory of the earnings recovery in 2025/2026.”
“For the recall, key is we think NFI ultimately gets reimbursed by its supplier for most of the costs based on industry precedent,” he said in a note titled Another Bump in the Road, But No Change in the Destination. “This is why the recent refinancing was so important as it provided ample liquidity of $370-million to navigate inevitable disruptions of a large manufacturing operation. On deliveries, key is we believe there are a number of buses that are substantially complete and just awaiting delivery. Orders can always shift around quarter to quarter, and 4Q is typically a seasonally stronger quarter due to higher coach deliveries. Throughput should also ramp as seat supply improves. Bottom-line, we view these issues as temporal not structural – hence, why full-year guidance was unchanged – and still view NFI in a positive risk-reward skew."
On Friday, the Winnipeg-based bus manufacturer fell over 5 per cent after it reported delivery delays and a recall of certain zero-emission bus models that it said will impact its third-quarter results. In the same release, the company said it’s responding to “numerous bids” in all its markets and has seen a “marked improvement” in market demand in the United Kingdom. It also stated that it expects the fourth quarter to be strong.
"The reasons for slippage of deliveries into 4Q are: 1) announced battery recall; 2) delays due to ongoing seat supplier issue; 3) timing of private coach deliveries; and 4) timing of ZEB deliveries,“ said Mr. Goldman. ”On point 3), we note deliveries can shift around quarter to quarter in normal course; and on point 4), we note there are sometimes delays in customer acceptance due to extra paperwork involved for ZEBs.
“We lowered our estimates below consensus/guidance primarily on lower deliveries. We shift some 3Q deliveries into 4Q and 2026. 3Q margins come down due to mix, i.e., fewer ZEBs, and operating deleverage. We also reduced our valuation multiple to 7.5 times EV/EBITDA on our 2026E (from 8 times) to account for uncertainty related to the warranty provision (cost/timing of resolution) and heightened execution risk.”
Based on industry precedents, Mr. Goldman thinks “significant" cost recoveries from its battery recall are “highly likely,” however he trimmed his target for NFI shares to $22 from $23, which is the current average on the Street.
"With shares trading at 6.5 times on depressed 2026 EBITDA, we see limited downside to earnings/valuation (especially after consensus gets rebased) while upside optionality is significant," he concluded.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $22 from $23 with an “outperform” rating.
“We maintain our Outperform rating on NFI Group shares following the company’s Q3 update and announced battery-related bus recall that will impact near-term deliveries. While it is disappointing to see the company impacted by yet another supply chain-related issue, we nevertheless note the following: (1) NFI has a solid $13.5 billion backlog that should support bus delivery growth through 2026 and beyond; (2) ongoing tailwinds from better pricing in backlog; (3) more favourable competitive conditions in the U.S. market that we expect to persist; and (4) higher EBITDA and cash flows that over time will bring leverage down,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $20 from $23 with an “outperformer” rating.
"While NFI has maintained its guidance for the year, we have lowered our EBITDA estimate below its guidance, reflecting the number of unknowns that remain regarding the battery recall, as well as the timing of the improvement in seating supply. We have maintained our estimates for 2026, but lowered our multiple from 7.5 times to 6.5 times to reflect this level of uncertainty. Our price target moves from $23 to $20. Ultimately, we do see a path towards normalized operations, but it is certainly not linear," said Ms. Friesen.
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RBC Dominion Securities’ Greg Pardy thinks Parex Resources Inc.’s (PXT-T) “focus on improving its base operating performance has put the Colombian producer back on solid footing with higher impact exploration moving into sharper focus.”
The analyst, who also acts as the firm’s Head of Global Energy Research, said his recent meetings with Parex CFO Cam Grainger, and senior vice-president of capital markets and corporate planning Mike Kruchten were “quick and candid.” He emphasized the steps the Calgary-based company has taken over the past year to “stabilize/grow its base production and reduce its cost structure.”
“Parex’s production should climb from 42,542 boe/d (98-per-cent oil) in the second-quarter of 2025 into a higher production range in the third (circa 45,000 boe/d) and fourth (circa 47,300 boe/d) quarters,” said Mr. Pardy. “This is consistent with the company’s messaging earlier this year that the second-half would see growth supported in part by augmented secondary recovery schemes on select fields, including full-field polymer injection at Cabrestero (100-per-cent wi). Parex intends to replicate this approach at the adjacent block LLA-34 (55-per-cent wi, non-operated) following its success, with initial injection planned for this year.”
“Alongside Parex’s second-quarter results, the company trimmed its 2025 operating cost guidance from $15-$16/boe to $13-$15/ boe. About one-half of this cost improvement was structural in nature, involving everything from field optimization to headcount adjustments and enhanced logistics/efficiencies. The other half accrued from lower power costs in Colombia, owing to improved hydro-electric generation following the drought in late 2023 and 2024.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” recommendation for Parex, he raised his target by $2 (or 11 per cent) to $20 based on his 2026 outlook at mid-cycle prices. The average on the Street is $18.96.
“Under futures pricing, Parex is trading at a 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 2.6 times (vs. our North American & International E&P peer group at 3.8 times) and a free cash flow yield (on market cap) of 11 per cent (vs. our peer group at 12 per cent),” said Mr. Pardy. “We believe that Parex should trade at a discounted relative valuation given its strong balance sheet and commitment to shareholder returns, offset by its mixed operating performance over the past year.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Seeing it “advancing toward an inflection point,” Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay raised his target for Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T) to $47 from $41 with a “buy” rating. The average is $44.56.
“We hosted investor meetings with CEO Rob Brown and CFO Faiz Karmally in Montréal. Overall, the meetings reinforced our constructive stance on ADEN, with the company appearing to near an inflection point as it: (1) is strongly positioned to capture opportunities from an eventual sector recovery; (2) has tools to navigate a fluid tariff environment; and (3) is preparing the balance sheet for meaningful M&A,” said Mr. Tremblay.
“While the precise timing and magnitude of a recovery in the housing sector is difficult to forecast, we are encouraged by: (1) activity levels in August/September look to have improved slightly compared with comments made about July sales during ADEN’s 2Q25 conference call; and (2) rate cuts. ADEN’s competitive strengths and available capacity position it to capture stronger demand once the market rebounds from its cyclical lows.”
* CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson cut his European Residential REIT (ERE.UN-T) target to $1.25 from $3 with an “outperformer” rating. The average is $2.49.
* TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison increased his target for First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T) to $30 from $25 with a “hold” rating, while Jefferies’ Christopher LaFemina moved his target to $33 from $28 with a “buy” rating. The average is $26.42.
"Between September 22-24 we attended a site tour of First Quantum’s operations. The ramp up of Kansanshi’s S3 expansion appears on track, and operations more broadly are tracking in line with guidance. There is also positive momentum building at Cobre Panama with the environmental audit set to begin and encouraging comments by the government towards a restart," said Mr. Hutchison.
* CIBC’s Hamir Patel reduced his Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) target to $12 from $14 with a “neutral” rating. The average is $16.67.
"We are maintaining our Neutral rating on Interfor, while lowering our price target ... reflecting dilution from the equity issuance and reduced estimates given weaker lumber volume and realization assumptions. Although the equity raise improves IFP’s leverage profile, we continue to favor larger-cap names with stronger balance sheets and more diversified product mixes given duty/tariff headwinds for lumber, as well as continued uncertainty on when housing turnover will pick up again in the U.S. (key to fueling an R&R recovery)," he said.
* Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne raised his Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) target to $34 from $32 with a “buy” rating following an announcement of a new agreement with California Lottery and a iLottery and gaming contract in Belgium. The average is $33.50.
“We know the company continues to compete in new jurisdictions in the U.S. and Europe and look forward to potential catalysts around contract wins,” he said.
* National Bank’s Adam Shine increased his target for shares of WildBrain Ltd. (WILD-T) to $2.25 from $1.75 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $2.26.