Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine thinks Canadian bank stocks currently offer “positive investment attributes, including strong capital positions, tailwinds for the Capital Markets and Wealth segments, and expanding margins.”
However, after outperforming the broader market by almost 600 basis points thus far in 2025 and “trading at valuations not seen since before the Great Financial Crisis,” he warned those attributes are now fully reflected, “trading at over 13-times forward earnings, while offering limited compensation for downside risks, namely a persistently challenging credit environment.”
In a research report released before the bell on Monday, Mr. Dechaine pointed to four factors for investors to watch during the approaching fourth-quarter earnings season in the sector, which is set to begin on Dec. 2. They are:
* Upward pressure on performing provisions.
Analyst: “We believe several factors (rising unemployment, potential risks to USMCA) could push bank CROs to increase their weightings to downside scenarios. We have increased our Q4/25 sector performing PCL [provisions for credit losses] ratio to 6 bps from 4 bps previously, which is in line with the 6 bps average since Q3/22, excluding Q2/25 when banks added 16 bps amid the wake of “Liberation Day”.
* Capital markets “poised for another strong quarter.”
Analyst: “We expect another good quarter from this business, especially from FICC trading desks and advisory activities. We believe there are two other important considerations: 1) expense growth could reflect not only variable compensation increases, but potentially a “catch-up” on accruals; and 2) 2026 outlook commentary, notably on the potential for H1/26 growth given an incredibly high bar."
* Expense growth could be “a negative surprise.”
Analyst: Aside from higher variable compensation expense forecasts, we are also increasing our non-compensation expenses this quarter. In a year of strong revenue growth, banks could take advantage and accelerate efficiency improvement investments that will benefit future performance (e.g., AI tools).
* “Capital deployment: Are buybacks losing their appeal?”
Analyst: “The Big-6 repurchased nearly 45 million shares this past quarter, one of the most active periods on record. With the group trading at lofty valuations, we question whether this trend can or should continue. If anything, we believe M&A speculation will begin to intensify.”
Mr. Dechaine made modest adjustments to his forecast, including raising his quarterly projections to reflect stronger Capital Markets revenue expectations, higher net interest margins and buybacks that exceeded his previous assumptions.
While acknowledging it “may seem to be a counter-intuitive move, considering its premium valuation,” he raised his rating for Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a target of $231, rising from $203. The average target on the Street is $215.92, according to LSEG data.
“Although the RY investment case is well known, we believe its positive investment attributes are worth repeating,” he said. “These include: 1) scale advantages in nearly all of its key business lines and markets; 2) superior ROE generation, with potential upside beyond its 16-per-cent-plus medium-term target; and 3) despite superior ROE generation, a relatively strong CET 1 ratio with above-average internal capital generation.
“Flight to quality trade could become appealing. While we view RY’s upside potential as attractive (e.g., Capital Markets momentum, ROE upside), we also believe its potential as an outperformer in weaker markets as a draw. Over the past 35 years, RY’s stock has tended to outperform in severe market correction scenarios (e.g., down 10 per cent plus from peak levels), with outperformance actually widening in the most severe market corrections. While it’s always risky to call market tops and bottoms (and outside our capabilities), we believe the historical track record is one investors will value.”
Conversely, Mr. Dechaine lowered Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $181 target, up from $173. The average is $173.54.
“The tailwind of credit improvement that has driven the stock in 2025 could be fading, its U.S. loan growth is still lacking, and we believe its capital deployment strategy could re-emphasize M&A in the not-too-distant future.”
He also made these other target adjustments:
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “sector perform”) to $100 from $81. The average is $91.31.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “sector perform”) to $121 from $110. Average: $114.15.
- EQB Inc. (EQB-T, “sector perform”) to $96 from $89. Average: $103.90.
- Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB-T, “underperform”) to $27 from $26. Average: $30.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “sector perform”) to $116 from $110. Average: $115.77.
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In a research note titled Waiting for the smoke to clear, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong predicts “the combination of accounting questions and continued late-year guidance revisions stretching back to last year will continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment” toward Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T).
While he thinks its base business “remains solid, especially with a strong historical track-record of sales in North America,” he emphasizes recent results have been driven by Brazil, which is the subject of auditor questions. That led him to downgrade his recommendation to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
Shares of the Winnipeg-based company plummeted 40.2 per cent on Friday after it announced a delay to the release of its third-quarter results, requiring time to finalize its accounting treatment of its operations in Brazil.
“Due to the uncertainty regarding the review, the company has withdrawn previously issued 2025 guidance (more than $225-million adj. EBITDA),” said Mr. Wong. “Ag Growth has highlighted big project wins in Brazil as a significant driver for both Commercial sales and the broader company order book. Management has attributed the company’s ability to win big projects partly due to attractive financing options for customers. To facilitate these financings, the company has set up an investment fund to monetize the receivables. The company also changed the realization of large projects to track percentage of completion vs. realization when completed. The reason for the extended auditor reviews has not been detailed, but we think could relate to the above recent changes.
“Recent guidance revisions and audit review will likely weigh on investor sentiment: Going back to 2024, Ag Growth has seen multiple significant guidance revisions, including late-year downward revisions that have raised questions on business and market visibility. We think the combination of these revisions and the current review into accounting practices in Brazil may weigh on investor sentiment until there there is more clarity on the accounting issue and more consistent guidance.”
Despite his downgrade, Mr. Wong does not expect Ag Growth’s base business to be affected by review, calling it “still a solid performer.”:
“While Brazil is under the accounting spotlight, we note the country only accounts for 15 per cent of Ag Growth’s business,” he said. “The company’s other regions remain solid performers, especially the Farm segment in North America. Assuming $190-million EBITDA for the rest of the business (85 per cent of previous $225-million guide) and applying a still discounted 6-times multiple would result in $21/sh in value.”
The analyst dropped his target to $25 from $50. The average is $44.71.
Elsewhere, CIBC World Markets’ Krista Friesen downgraded her recommendation to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $33 target, falling from $58.
“Prior to AFN’s announcement that it was delaying the release of its Q3 earnings we had been hopeful that the company was starting to regain a level of credibility after a challenging 2024,” said Ms. Friesen. “Driving our positive sentiment on the stock was that despite the tumultuous year the ag industry has had thus far, particularly with regard to tariffs and trade wars, since issuing its 2025 guidance at the beginning of March the company has held its guidance. We attribute this to the company not baking in a recovery in North American Farm this year, and to the strength of its International Commercial business.
“With the delay in Q3/25 reporting driving the audit committee to review various matters relating to the company’s financial reporting and internal controls with respect to its operations in Brazil, we now have a number of questions around the Brazil operations and results; this is of concern to us given the importance of this part of the business.”
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TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil views the 21.1-per-cent drop in Superior Plus Corp.’s (SPB-T) share price on Friday following the release of weaker-than-anticipated third-quarter results and a reduction to its full-year guidance as “an overreaction” and recommends investors “should take advantage of current market capitulation.”
While he acknowledged “two consecutive quarters featuring significant misses versus consensus as well as two consecutive years of guidance misses does not instill confidence in the outlook,” Mr. MacNeill emphasized “the status quo is sufficient to become more constructive on this name and view year-over-year improvements as achievable” and raised his target to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“Note that we downgraded Superior in July in advance of Q2/25 results, given strong share price performance, two challenging quarters ahead and a lack of near-term catalysts,” he added. “We had previously viewed getting Q2/25 and Q3/25 in print, as well as a renewal of the NCIB and more visibility to Superior Delivers disclosures, as a potential path to a more positive outlook (Q2/25 Results).
“However, with two consecutive quarters featuring significant misses versus consensus, as well as two consecutive years of missed guidance, we characterized Superior Plus as a ‘show me’ story with our Q3/25 results note published [Thursday].”
The analyst maintained his estimates, price target of $8.50 per share and broader outlook for Superior, however he emphasized: “we are recognizing a meaningfully improved potential total shareholder return.” The average target on the Street is $9.15.
“The prevailing share price equates to a 6.0-times multiple on a 2025 estimated EV/EBITDA basis,” said Mr. MacNeill. “Note that our unchanged 2026E EBITDA estimate implies $35.0-million, or 7.5-per-cent year-over-year growth, which we view as achievable given its Superior Delivers initiatives, but note that valuation would look attractive even with no improvement year-over-year. Therefore, investors do not need to see an improvement in performance to become more constructive on this story in our view.
“Superior will renew its NCIB in the coming days and remains committed to deploying $135 million/year to the buyback, which we believe will positively influence near-term share price performance at current levels.”
Elsewhere, other analyst revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to $9 from $9.75 with a “buy” rating.
“3Q results were weak. While SPB’s 8-per-cent EBITDA growth guidance appear stretched (especially given a weaker WTI price impacting Certarus’s wellsite business), we had not expected a guidance cut to 2 per cent year-over-year, the delta being additional overtime costs from implementing its new delivery technology and wholesale supply disruption. SPB sits in the ‘show-me story’ camp with meaningful upside if management executes on its $75-million Superior Delivers initiatives,” said Mr. Ho.
* Scotia’s Ben Isaacson to $8.50 from $10 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We have cut our PT by 15 per cent to $8.50, on lower shareholder confidence in SPB’s ability to deliver on its ‘generational change’ commitments,” said Mr. Isaacson. “This is the only conclusion we can draw, post a more than 21 per cent one-day stock decline, where all segments missed + targets set in Q2 are now off track. As structural headwinds persist in both CNG and propane, shareholders are concerned the path to $570M in ‘27 EBITDA has derailed, which jeopardizes the US$1.00 to US$1.10 in ‘27 FCF that most are playing for. New setbacks to the ‘25 guide didn’t help, whether on Superior Deliversor on the B/S. Two misses in a row since the Investor Day, and an overall beat/miss record of 3-6-1, add fuel to the fire, as does a stock that is down 35 per cent to 40 per cent since the leadership change. On the call, the team repeatedly stated how pleased they are with their progress and that change is never linear. SPB has clearly now become a show-mestory, in our view, with no more credit given for a compelling story, deck, or positive narratives on progress. Until Superior delivers, we see no reason why the stock should outperform. That said, we left our SO rating unchanged, only to acknowledge that Q2/Q3 are off-season quarters. Q4 will be a litmus test, in our view.”
* Raymond James’ Luke Konschuh to $9.75 from $10 with an “outperform” rating.
“We view the price action on Friday as an overreaction,” he said.
* Stifel’s Daryl Young to $10 from $12 with a “buy” rating.
“Q3 was disappointing, with the quarter/outlook impacted by three factors: 1) prolonged impacts from Martinez refinery fire, 2) O&G weakness for Certarus, and 3) implementation challenges of the new propane delivery optimization tool. These factors led to a 6-per-cent reduction in full-year 2025 guidance which is disappointing, but does not alone warrant the 21-per-cent share price decline. However, the key issue is reduced investor confidence around SPB’s execution and skepticism around its ability to achieve the $75mm Superior Delivers target by 2027. Looking forward, we are encouraged to hear that Certarus has a fully sold-out fleet into Q4, and that management has tweaked its propane delivery route optimization tool, leading to better fill rates, with lower cost to serve. SPB clearly remains a ‘show-me’ story, but the more than 25-per-cent FCF yield implied by management’s 2027 targets signals compelling risk/reward,” said Mr. Young.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $6.50 from $7.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $9 from $11 with an “outperform” rating.
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Citing valuation concerns despite an “impressive” performance in the latest quarter, Raymond James analyst Michael Barth lowered CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” previously.
“We initiated coverage on CEU with our Strong Buy rating in early-2024, and the stock has since gone on to deliver a total shareholder return of 228 per cent (significantly outperforming both the TSX and S&P 500 at 44.0 per cent),” he said. “Even as we revise estimates higher (again), we now have CEU trading at a 9.5-per-cent 2026E sustaining FCF yield. To be clear, we still think that’s attractive with an underlevered balance sheet, the highest ROIC in the group, plenty of secular growth drivers unique to CEU, and a management team with a history of capital discipline… it’s just not in the same pound-the-table territory that we’ve seen for much of the last two years."
While he made a rating revision, Mr. Barth emphasized the Calgary-based manufacturer and provider of technically-advanced consumable chemical solutions continues to “outperform industry barometers” on oil field services activity, posting record third-quarter revenue results.
“New RFP wins suggest top line growth should continue to be healthy into 2026, even in a flat rig count environment,” he added. “With 3Q25 results the company announced a major onshore RFP win (3-5 year contract), with work expected to commence in December. In addition, CEU also won a small offshore RFP that puts them on 4 of the 54 targeted deepwater platforms in the Gulf. With this incremental work and what should be continued success on new bids, the company expects Adj. EBITDAC to grow 10 per cent year-over-year into 2026 assuming a flat activity environment. Our estimates move higher and now reflect 11-per-cent/12-per-cent Adj. EBITDAC growth in 2026/2027 respectively, which is a function of both top line growth and some margin recovery. While we’re comfortable with where we sit today, we can easily wrap our head around CEU delivering even better top line growth and margin recovery, particularly if the industry rig count starts to move even modestly higher next year.
Mr. Barth raised his target to $13.25 from $12.50. The average is $12.
“We view CEU as one of the highest-quality energy businesses in our coverage universe, with consistent capital discipline, an exceptional balance sheet, and secular CEU-specific tailwinds across the business. Our estimates and target move higher (again), but we’ve nevertheless elected to downgrade CEU from Strong Buy to Outperform on valuation. The stock has outperformed both the TSX and S&P 500 by more than 183 per cent since we initiated, and now sits at just a ~9.5% 2026E sustaining FCF yield. While this is no longer in pound-the-table territory, we still see reasonably attractive value in the shares and still view CEU as a staple in any energy portfolio,” concluded Mr. Barth.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman to $12.25 from $10.25 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“EBITDA beat by 8 per cent – and on the call, management said it was confident that new tender wins could support incremental EBITDA growth of 10 per cent in 2026 in a flat environment. We believe this was not reflected in consensus estimates, and certainly not ours. Yet, shares are only up 7 per cent intraday, implying multiple compression. If the market does not figure it out, we expect share repurchases to correct market inefficiency. The company expects to max out the current NCIB for a third consecutive year. Notably, we don’t think the new wins are one-time as increased scale (revenue 2 times 2019 levels) and new capabilities (offshore via the Proflow acquisition in 2022) has opened the door to new bidding opportunities and share gains with supermajors," said Mr. Goldman.
* RBC’s Keith Mackey to $13 from $11 with an “outperform” rating.
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National Bank analyst Maxim Sytchev thinks Stantec Inc.’s (STN-T) “strong fundamentals continue to shine through” following third-quarter results that featured “solid” organic growth and margin improvement, emphasizing “resilient end-market demand provides comfort around the persistence of the current infra cycle.”
“Concerns around the sustainability of growth was a hot topic for engineering consulting names going into quarterly reporting, and short-term share price reactions appeared to be driven by an almost knee-jerk reaction to the headline metric,” he said in a client note. “The uncertainty of the recent U.S. government shutdown exacerbated this dynamic, but we think management’s commentary (and TTEK’s – which is 20-per-cent exposed to the U.S. Federal government) of continued positive organic growth in the U.S. and confidence in the backlog should give investors a degree of comfort. Water, infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing remain thematically growing areas, regardless of which way the political winds are blowing, and management’s strong execution and clear margin expansion trajectory support continued earnings compounding for the foreseeable future."
On Nov. 13, the Edmonton-based sustainable engineering, architecture and environmental consulting firm reported net revenue for the quarter of $1.705-billion, up 12 per cent year-over-year and 5.6-per-cent organic expansion, falling in line with the Street’s $1.711-billion estimate and above Mr. Sytchev’s $1.665-billion projection. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.53 matched the consensus and was a penny above the analyst’s forecast.
“U.S. organic growth [is] expected to accelerate despite flat backlog year-to-date (but up 7 per cent year-over-year),“ said Mr. Sytchev. ”Management acknowledged that U.S. backlog has been flat so far in 2025 due to slower procurement cycles and delayed contract signings, but emphasized that this does not signal weakness in forward demand. Aging infrastructure, re-shoring of manufacturing, and mission-critical facilities remain strong structural drivers, and management expects organic growth in the U.S. to resume in 2026 as awarded projects convert to backlog (Q4/25 will be a tougher comp given 10-per-cent year-over-year growth in Q4/24). The near-term optics on backlog should not overshadow the underlying organic demand profile, and investors can expect a return to positive MSD U.S. growth as procurement bottlenecks ease now that the shutdown is lifted. The recent integration of Page is also ahead of schedule, delivering early synergies in the U.S.
“Water business continues to deliver outsized growth across geographies and is currently the strongest vertical. Stantec reported double-digit organic growth in water in both Canada and the U.S., with Canada exceeding 20 per cent and the U.S. tracking in the low-teens. Drivers include large public-sector wastewater projects (e.g., Metro Vancouver, Winnipeg biosolids), flood mitigation, PFAS regulation, and advanced manufacturing water needs. Recall TTEK (majority U.S. water-focused) expressed similar end market momentum when it gave its 8-per-cent year-over-year organic growth guide for F2026 this week. Investors should view water as a margin-accretive segment that underpins stability even in a mixed macro backdrop.”
Also seeing data centre exposure “growing fast but remaining disciplined” and its margin expansion and FCF conversion ahead of plan with “structural levers intact,” the analyst “moderated” his revenue growth expectation for the current quarter, citing tougher comps, but he increased margins to reflect recent productivity and execution driven progress. His full-year numbers continue to be “closely aligned with management’s updated guidance, with margins near the top end.”
Keeping an “outperform” rating for Stantec shares, Mr. Sytchev raised his target to $167 from $164. The average is $168.72.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $160 from $158 with a “buy” rating.
“We were pleased by STN’s 3Q results and impressed by the execution that led to impressive margin and FCF performance. While organic growth in the U.S. was softer than expected, this does not impact our positive view on the name. The robust M&A thesis remains unchanged, the fundamentals are strong and the balance sheet remains in great shape with leverage of 1.5 times. Leverage should further improve to 0.7 times by the end of 2026, leaving plenty of dry powder for incremental value creation opportunities (not in our numbers),” he said.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $157 from $155 with a “sector perform” rating.
“STN reported a solid quarter, with mid single-digit organic growth and operating leverage supporting 95bp of margin expansion, prompting management to increase its full-year margin guidance. While organic growth in the U.S. came in softer-than-expected on slower procurement and increasing levels of caution around larger, private market projects, management maintained that its backlog and pipeline position it to deliver organic growth in 2026. Management remained upbeat when discussing the M&A opportunity, with an acceleration in transaction volumes likely required over the near-term to meet its 2026 revenue target. While STN delivered good growth and impressive margins, elevated valuations and signs of normalizing levels of organic growth in core markets keep us neutral on the shares,” said Mr. Murray.
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $169 from $175 with a “buy” rating.
“Stantec posted a solid 3Q25, which we consider the strongest of the three engineering firms in our coverage. Our revenue and EBITDA estimates only undergo modest changes, while EPS is negatively impacted by higher lease depreciation expense. The investment thesis on this stock is unchanged and hinges upon MSD organic growth rates (which we view as achievable) and an active M&A program (which should kick off again in the next few months). We view Stantec as a core holding,” said Mr. Gillies.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $168 from $153 with an “outperform” rating.
“Stantec reported a solid quarter with strong organic growth, margin expansion, a record backlog, and a modest upward revision to 2025 Adj. EBITDA margin guidance. Looking ahead, Stantec noted that underlying demand drivers remain intact despite some investor concern (i.e., U.S. government shutdown, international uncertainty), and we believe the company can accelerate organic growth (M&A also remains a focus) and maintain margin expansion in 2026,” said Mr. Khan.
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Pointing to a “weakened” outlook, ATB Capital Markets analyst Tim Monachello lowered Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“MATR shares traded 21 per cent lower on November 13, 2025, following its Q3/25 results (after market on November 12, 2025) that included adj EBITDA of $34-million 9 per cent below consensus of $37-million, driven by below expectation margins, primarily in its Connection Technologies segment,” he said. “More impactfully, MATR offered a weakened outlook across much of its business for Q4/25 and 2026 as macro headwinds and geopolitical factors weigh broadly across its diversified platform. While management is working to fill capacity within its four newly minted manufacturing facilities, we no longer believe these efforts will be sufficient to overcome the mounting macroeconomic demand headwinds and cost pressures associated with cross border trade in the ‘age of tariffs’.
“Most notably, we highlight that 1) economic contraction in Canada has meaningfully reduced demand for industrial wire and cable products pressuring MATR’s Shawflex revenue and margin outlook for the foreseeable future, and 2) weak commodity prices continue to weigh on U.S. oil activity and demand for Flexpipe products. Given demand headwinds and margin pressures, we reduce our 2026e adj. EBITDAS estimate by 23 per cent, implying just 1-per-cent adj. EBITDAS growth year-over-year. Overall, while we continue to believe MATR shares offer potential upside longer-term, the Company faces a challenging near-term outlook with further downside risk to potential changes in U.S. copper tariffs that could come to include finished wire and cable products imported from Canada. Overall, given reduced estimates, a considerably weakened near-term risk-return profile and no clear visibility to improvements, we reduce our rating.”
Mr. Monachello’s target slid to $9 from $14. The average is $9.79.
Elsewhere, other revisions include:
* RBC’s Arthur Nagorny to $9 from $11 with an “outperform” rating.
“While Mattr is making progress with ramping up production at its new facilities, the company’s outlook is being weighed on by direct and indirect tariff impacts, and visibility to step-change improvements remains limited. We trim our forecasts to reflect our expectation for various headwinds to continue, though we continue to believe there is upside potential should the tariff backdrop improve,” said Mr. Nagorny.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $9 from $11 with a “hold” rating.
“MATR reported Q3/25 EBITDA 7 per cent below consensus, and calls for Q4/25 EBITDA to decline q/q. Management expects incrementally moderate customer buying during the seasonally slow year-end period due to macro weakness in key regions, with wire & cable demand likely subdued for several quarters. We see more notable upside in MATR as likely to be limited until macro uncertainty eases and margins show improvement,” said Mr. Tupholme.
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In other analyst actions:
* National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar lowered his Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) by $1 to $83 with an “outperform” rating ahead of the Nov. 24 release of its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The average is $86.11.
“We expect U.S. merchandising trends to be consistent quarter-over-quarter, partly reflecting an easier comparable base and market share gains, partly offset by concerns about consumer softness,” he said. “We anticipate positive Canada merchandising trends, largely reflecting ongoing optimization initiatives and promo. We expect resilient Europe & other merchandising trends primarily reflecting stable Europe performance and improvements in Asia. We model a U.S. fuel margin delta of 4.0 cents per gallon vs. OPIS and a Canada fuel margin delta of Canadian 3.3 cents per litre vs. Kalibrate based on our proprietary calculations.”
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme increased his AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) target to $125 from $124 with a “buy” rating. The average is $115.92.
“Q3/25 PS&PM EBITDA was above consensus, and AtkinsRéalis Services backlog hit a new record. While management lowered its 2025 ESR segment organic revenue growth guidance, it expects growth to reaccelerate in Q4/25 and remains confident in its medium-term outlook. Nuclear momentum continues to build, and ATRL raised its 2025 Nuclear revenue outlook (third time this year). ATRL remains our Top Pick,” said Mr. Tupholme.
* Following weaker-than-anticipated third-quarter revenue and earnings, CIBC’s Ty Collin cut his AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) target to $33 from $38, maintaining his “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $25 from $30 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $30 from $33 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $32.41.
“The revenue variance to ATBe was driven by lower-than-expected revenue and gross profit dollars, primarily around new and used vehicles, with the EBITDA impact mitigated by lower operating costs as the Company continues to roll out its ACX optimization program,” said Mr. Murray. “Management views the weaker volumes and underperformance versus the broader market as a byproduct of rightsizing efforts being undertaken with the lower new vehicle margin signalling softening demand conditions, in our view. ACQ remained cautious on its near-term outlook and views 2026 as a year to gradually rebuild volumes while remaining disciplined around managing costs. In addition, management noted delays in completing the divestiture of the U.S. business until mid-2026, which could weigh on leverage levels near-term. Volume pressures combined with softening macro conditions, delays in exiting the U.S. business and a lack of near-term catalysts keep us cautious on the name.”
* National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu raised his Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP-Q, BLDP-T) to US$3.15 from US$2 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$2.54.
“Q3 results highlight continued execution, clearer margin traction, and a solid liquidity position. The hydrogen market has rallied over the past few months, driven by supportive policy signals and improving project economics across the value chain. With this and revisions to our estimates, we have raised our target price,” said Mr. Sidhu.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy increased his Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T) target to $32 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $28.23.
“Our recent field trip to Cenovus Energy’s 151,000 bbl/d Toledo refinery made us believers in its resolute steps to overhaul its U.S. refining segment, as explored in detail in this note. Aside from the importance of upstream-downstream integration, the uneven operating/financial performance of the company’s U.S. refining segment has disproportionally impacted its market cap at times. Thus, getting its U.S. downstream humming on a sustained basis could support ongoing relative share price appreciation/outperformance,” said Mr. Pardy.
* RBC’s Pammi Bir increased his target for Crombie REIT (CRR.UN-T) to $16.50 from $16 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $16.61.
“Post in line Q3 results, we believe CRR remains well-equipped to handle a low growth economy. Its defensive grocery anchored portfolio should continue to deliver steady low-single-digit percentage organic growth through 2026, underpinned by its long-term leases with Empire (although do we have a suggestion on disclosure). As well, the post-quarter end acquisition provides another example of its ability to leverage its parental ties to drive growth. Combined with a modest growth outlook, we see valuation as well-supported,” he said.
* Mr. Bir also increased his Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T) target to $18 from $17 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $19.44.
“Overall, we see a few puts and takes post Q3 results. As broader office fundamentals regain traction, we expect operating momentum in D’s Toronto portfolio to gradually improve in the year ahead. The recent formation of a new development JV in Calgary also helps mitigate project risks. However, our earnings estimates took another step back on a shortfall in underlying results and an anticipated drag from its sole U.S. asset,” said Mr. Bir.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T) target to $6.75 from $6.50 with a “hold” rating. The average is $7.45.
“FSZ posted a solid 3Q EBITDA beat, with inflows benefiting from a sizeable private alts mandate win, providing management fee growth in 2026 and beyond as capital is deployed. We are also encouraged by the improving leverage and share buyback activity. Offsetting these, PineStone outflows continue, the 4Q performance fee outlook looks tepid and three-year equity fund performance is underwhelming (redemption risk),” said Mr. Ho.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch raised his Freehold Royalties Ltd. (FRU-T) target to $16 from $15 with a “hold” rating. The average is $16.25.
“We are increasing our target on Freehold ... following last week’s release of constructive 3Q25 financial results. Despite slowing stateside rig counts, drilling activity on the corporate land base remains robust, reflecting its strategic positioning in the most economic areas of the Permian and Eagle Ford. Meanwhile, drilling activity in Canada has also proven resilient in the face of softening oil prices, which positions the company to continue delivering modest organic production growth,” said Mr. MacCulloch.
* CIBC’s Mark Petrie raised his George Weston Ltd. (WN-T) target to $112 from $110, reiterating an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s John Zamparo to $100 from $99 with a “sector perform” rating, RBC’s Irene Nattel to $109 from $108 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $103 from $101.67 with a “buy” rating. The average is $104.52.
“Weston’s 19-per-cent sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) discount is much wider than normal, and is approaching two standard deviation levels (19.7 per cent). We continue to see a near-term trading opportunity as the discount seems much more likely to narrow than widen; however, identifying a catalyst proves challenging. Our estimates are mostly unchanged and involve greater proceeds from participation in L’s buyback and slightly higher corporate costs,” said Mr. Zamparo.
* After its Friday announcement of the conclusion of its strategic review without finding a buyer, CIBC’s Tal Woolley cut his H&R REIT (HR.UN-T) target by $2 to $11.50 with an “outperformer” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani to $11.50 from $14 with a “buy” rating, National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $10.50 from $12.50 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $13 from $13.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $11.86.
“While many investors were hoping for an en-bloc takeout at a reasonable premium following the initiation of a strategic review and inbound interest, this failed to materialize,” said Mr. Kornack. “We had noted the complexity and diversified nature of the portfolio as a risk but thought the discounted valuation may be enough to provide interested parties the buffer needed to take on a sum-of-the-parts exercise. In the end management has received interest in select assets and is under discussion to sell 25 per cent of the portfolio. We still think it is possible that they could pursue a roll-up themselves vs. giving away the upside to a consortium. Until then, execution risk remains high although selling the HFS properties plus industrial would probably be lower risk with the residual skewing heavily to U.S. apts.”
* RBC’s Sam Crittenden raised his Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) target to $26 from $24 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $23.78.
“We hosted the management of Hudbay for dinner with Investors in Toronto. The company continues to generate strong FCF and benefit from high copper and gold prices. We see further upside in the shares as they de-risk the Copper World project in Arizona and unlock regional opportunities in Manitoba and Peru,” said Mr. Crittenden.
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth bumped his Keyera Corp. (KEY-T) target to $62 from $61 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s trimmed his target to $52 from $53 with a “buy” rating. The average is $51.69.
“While 3Q25 disappointed on what we view as transient Marketing headwinds, the core fee-based businesses continue to perform very well, and we still view KEY as one of the best ways to play the theme of rising natural gas and NGL production across the WCSB. We still expect the Plains’ deal to close in 1Q26, and continue to believe that the market has under-reacted to the value creation there. We’ve tweaked our estimates following the quarter, our target moves modestly higher, and we reiterate our Outperform rating,” said Mr. Barth.
* TD Cowen’s Tim James raised his Magellan Aerospace Corp. (MAL-T) target to $24 from $22 with a “buy” rating. The average is $20.15.
“No change to bullish thesis,” said Mr. James. “EBITDA/EPS growth of 24 per cent/120 per cent and 160 basis points of gross margin expansion shows benefits of recent cost efficiencies and contract re-pricing initiatives. Q3 results support our view for strong EPS growth (42-per-cent CAGR 2025-2027). We believe increasingly underleveraged b/s points to further dividend increases and/or significant new growth investments not in our current forecasts.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier reduced his MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) target to $39 from $43 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $38 from $40 with a “sector outperform” rating and RBC’s Ken Herbert to $38 from $45 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $39.31.
“We believe the current share price already reflects risks tied to the reliance of MDA’s Globalstar contract on Apple, with an estimated downside of $25/share from multiple compression and loss of the contract. Conversely, a new constellation win would significantly boost investor confidence in MDA’s global standing, and comments on the call suggested the pipeline remains active,” said Mr. Poirier.
* CIBC’s Hamir Patel raised his Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) target to US$47 from US$44, keeping an “outperformer” rating. The average is US$48.40.
* National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu lowered his target for Northland Power Inc. (NPI-T) to $27 from $30 with an “outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Daniel Magder cut his target to $25 from $28 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $24.75.
“While Q3 results were broadly in line with expectations, the stock extinguished all year-to-date gains previously supported by the successful de-risking events of its two flagship offshore wind projects, Hai Long and Baltic Power,” said Mr. Sidhu. “Investor sentiment deteriorated following an unexpected 40-per-cent dividend reduction, commissioning delays at Hai Long, and a substantial writedown on the Nordsee One offshore wind platform.”
“Management is in the penalty box and will need to deliver at its Investor Day with focus on NPI’s long-term growth trajectory and capital allocation strategy, with particular interest in initiatives to enhance shareholder value—such as commentary on share repurchases. With that, shares lost a full turn on the day and now trade at 7.8 times 2026 estimates (was 9.0 times) or 13-per-cent implied IRR (was 10 per cent).“
* After its Matawinie Mine and Bécancour Battery Material plant were added to the second tranche of projects to be referred to the Major Projects Office (MPO) by the federal government, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé bumped his Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NOU-T) target to $5.25 from $5 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.85.
“Final steps will now require NMG to finalize its signed offtake agreements, confirm the support of its strategic investors and targeted lenders toward project financing prior to proceeding to FID for both the mine and plant or sequentially with the mine first followed by the plant,” said Mr. Sidibé. “We currently model a start of construction in mid-2026 with financing requirements of $1.1 bn funded in a 60:40 debt to equity ratio. We view this update as a positive for NMG with government support improving odds of the project becoming reality.”
* RBC’s Darko Mihelic bumped his Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. (SFC-T) target to $10 from $9.50 with an “outperform” rating, while Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic raised his target to $12 from $11 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $11.
“SFC reported another solid quarter with most operating segments coming in ahead of our forecasts. Notable positives included strong new business production in the U.S., a big 8% sequential jump in BVPS driven by favorable market variables, an elevated LICAT ratio, and favorable guidance that losses related to the tragic events unfolding in Jamaica and the Caribbean related to Hurricane Melissa will be manageable in Q4. We continue to see sizable upside for the shares over the medium-term with the market still not fully valuing the company’s potential earnings growth and ROE trajectory. We reiterate our SO-rating on the shares,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta raised his Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) target to $22.50 from $20 with a “sector outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Sam Damiani bumped his target to $29 from $28 with a “buy” rating. The average is $21.31.
“Occupancy reached a new 8-year high and leasing momentum remains strong. Likely Toys R Us vacancies are a small occupancy hit that should accelerate the capturing of higher market rents. NOI remains otherwise very steady with highly visible growth. With a 7-per-cent cash distribution yield and our 2-per-cent forecast AFFO CAGR [adjusted funds from operations compound annual growth rate], SRU’s growth+yield matches the peer group leaders yet trades at a below-avg multiple,” said Mr. Damiani.
* RBC’s Maurice Choy raised his South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N, SOBO-T) target to $41 from $39 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $37 from $35 with a “sector perform” rating and National Bank’s Patrick Kenny bumped his target to US$27 from US$26 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $37.79.
“With solid Q3/25 results, the realignment of market expectations with the release of its 2026 guidance, and South Bow’s unchanged capital allocation priorities (including the sustainability of its attractive dividend), investor attention now turns to the Investor Day on November 19. The company’s leverage today may limit its pace of growth in the near-term; however, we anticipate investors will walk away from the Investor Day with a better understanding of South Bow’s philosophy on and approach to growth (including its backlog), capital allocation, culture, particularly as it heads towards its 4.0 times debt/EBITDA target (potentially in 2028-2029),” said Mr. Choy.