Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
After tariffs “seldom left the spotlight in 2025,“ trade-related uncertainty is likely to continue to weigh on Canadian industrial companies in the year ahead, according to National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev, who sees a backdrop “set for more choppy waters.”
In a research report released Monday, he reviewed the past 12 months in his coverage universe and previewed 2026, emphasizing the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which he calls “a cornerstone of the North American economy for over 30 years and a key driver in Canada managing to avoid a recession thus far, is set to come up for renegotiation and predicts the U.S. is ”likely to use their (real and perceived) market power to extract further economic concessions.”
“We have discussed at length a number of themes that we believe will continue to shape 2026E (and beyond) such as nation-building projects/defence (positive, real impact likely to materialize in late 2027E/2028E), nuclear expectations (continue to accelerate amid growing electricity demands), tariffs (USMSCA opens up to renegotiation), IIJA spending velocity (still on track, but the U.S. Federal shutdown did push some things to the right) and how all that links into multiples, especially for engineers (perpetual expectations are now much more realistic and in line to long-term averages),“ he said.
”The AI narrative is never far away, oscillating between an enabler (i.e., higher margins) earlier in the year and demand driver for pretty much everything (copper, electricity, etc.) to now disruptor (’existential risk’ to time and material work consulting companies, even though professional liability, status quo procurement methodology and the absence of a Palantir-type category killer in existence make the violent change in narrative a sharp turn). To build on the above, we also wanted to take stock of what not to do based on some of our 2025 fumbles, while hopefully drawing correct conclusions for 2026E."
Mr. Sytchev made one rating revision, raising AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T) to an “outperform” rating from “sector perform” previously, seeing “tactical and thematic factors shift the risk/reward dynamic into attractive territory.”
“We downgraded ATRL shares mid-June 2025; since then, they have declined 9 per cent vs. the TSX advancing 19 per cent over the same time frame; importantly, the earnings expectations dynamic/velocity remained relatively intact, suggesting that a change in sentiment has been the bigger contributing factor than a material change in fundamentals,“ he explained.
“While organic growth in Engineering has been slower due to tougher comps and work scope roll-off in the Middle East, management made progress on margins, while Nuclear momentum has maintained its positive trajectory. We do expect a new build announcement in 2026 that could once again reinvigorate fund flows into the name; this also makes the name different vs. other consulting peers that all of a sudden got grouped into the ‘AI losers basket’; given accelerated Nuclear growth, the vertical now comprises 39 per cent of our target EV, a material and differentiated contribution. Net net, we are buyers of the shares again.”
Emphasizing that “ramping up” of margins for its core engineering business, Mr. Sytchev raised his target for the Montreal-based firm’s shares to $110 from $102. The average target on the Street is $119.42, according to LSEG data.
“In our downgrade five months ago, ATRL’s NTM[next 12 month] P/E (excluding – Capital) had expanded to almost 27 times as shares rose to all-time-highs of over $106, joining the ebullience of the sector (and equity markets as a whole),“ he added. ”Concerns around slowing organic growth and the long-term effects on AI on consultants’ business models weighed on the share prices of our entire coverage in recent months, however, and valuations have normalized to more attractive levels. In ATRL’s case, shares retreated 9 per cent since our downgrade, while 2026E consensus EBITDA has held firm (EPS estimates rose 7 per cent, likely due to the 407 ETR sale), and the NTM P/E now stands at a much more palatable 21 times, an attractive setup given the secular growth in engineering and nuclear and a net cash balance sheet."
“Balancing value/rebound potential,“ Mr. Sytchev named two companies as his ”best ideas" for the next 12 months:
* ATS Corp. (ATS-T, “outperform”) with a $57 target, rising from $54. The average is $49.50.
Analyst: “Hoping that the broken clock will be correct at least twice a day; it was too early of a call in 2025, and we hope that a 22-per-cent EPS rebound in F2026E (followed by 20 per cent in F2027E) will once again bring investors into the fold; a CEO announcement is required to provide strategic certainty (with the message being of continuity, focusing on defensive verticals in Healthcare, Food, and Nuclear). One of the few names trading at normalized multiples and trough earnings.
* RB Global Inc. (RBA-N/RBA-T, ”outperform") with a US$124 target (unchanged). Average: $126.33.
Analyst: “Initial re-rate post IAA integration stalled as GTV momentum has lapped tough comps; we recently upgraded the shares on hopes of better construction momentum (CAT inventory movements are leading here by six months), while market share gains at IAA are gaining traction. For a stock typically commanding 30 times P/E, 25 times on 2026E feels compelling to us amid further operational improvements. The Copart valuation deflation is a fact but at some point investors need to care about absolute value, and we believe there is plenty at these levels.”
Mr. Sytchev also made these target changes:
- AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T, “outperform”) to $29 from $31. Average: $33.
- Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q/CIGI-T) to US$185 from US$181. Average: US$177.51.
- Finning International Inc. (FTT-T, “sector perform”) to $72 from $66. Average: $83.67.
- North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T, “outperform”) to $28 from $26. Average: $24.33.
- Stantec Inc. (STN-T, “outperform”) to $161 from $167. Average: $170.15.
- Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T, “outperform”) to $107 from $95. Average: $91.60.
- Wajax Corp. (WJX-T, “sector perform”) to $27 from $25. Average: $27.
- WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T, “outperform”) to $301 from $299. Average: $322.60.
Citi analyst Steven Stroup has “conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts including an incrementally constructive fundamental and macro-backdrop.”
“We recommend investors/consumers maintain and maximize bullish copper exposure to capture/hedge 15-per-cent base case upside to $13k/t over the next 6-12 months (pt price forecast) plus potential bull-case upside to $15k/t,” he said in a report released before the bell titled Soaring Copper.
“The 15-per-cent share of copper demand from decarbonization and datacentres has driven close to 100 per cent of demand growth over the last three years. These sectors are alone sufficient to drive around trend growth in copper end-use consumption through 2026-2027. A stronger improvement in global manufacturing activity in 2026 (and the two-thirds of copper demand from traditional cyclical demand segments) can drive total copper demand growth well above trend but is not required for a deficit and further copper upside.”
Given that bullish view, Mr. Stroup initiated coverage of Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) and Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) with “buy” recommendations.
“We prefer HBM with its near-term production uplift and for its cheaper relative valuation,” he said. ”Citi Commodities team is bullish on copper and expects prices to push into record levels with 2026 averaging $5.78/lb Cu and potential bull case of $6.80/lb Cu.
“HBM and LUN are poised to grow production significantly (up 50 per cent) in the back half of the decade to early 2030s with greenfield projects (Copper World and Vicuna, respectively). Copper World is largely derisked via JV capital contributions and being in Arizona. HBM is optimizing the mill at Copper Mountain for 30-per-cent uplift in 2026/27 production. LUN is focused on derisking the massive Vicuna project and integrating the district-scale complex (FS expected 1Q26) while establishing incremental growth at Caserones and Chapada.”
Mr. Stroup set a target of $23 for Hudbay shares. The average target on the Street is $26.95.
“Hudbay is a mid-tier production growth story with significant gold exposure that has helped stabilize earnings,” he said. “The company was a diversified base metals/polymetallic producer before 2020 and the completion of mining at 777 mine. Afterward, HBM shifted further into copper and consolidated ownership of the Copper Mountain mine in early 2025 by acquiring the remaining 30-per-cent stake, which represents a near-term opportunity to gain 35kt of production growth in the next 2-3 years. Additional uplift could come from brownfield satellite deposits while Copper World is potentially developed following a sanctioning decision in 2026.”
“We rate HBM at Buy/High Risk. The stock screens as High Risk based upon our quantitative model, and we assign it a High Risk rating based on its volatility. Citi maintains a bullish long-term view on copper. We see more upside than downside from HBM with organic growth projects from Copper Mountain and Snow Lake. The Copper World project represents an opportunity for HBM step production up to 250kt/a Cu in the long-term and in a desirable jurisdiction. This does carry downside risks in terms of potential capital overrruns and execution risk..”
The analyst set a Street-high target of $32 for shares of Lundin, exceeding the $24.54 average.
“Lundin is a medium-term production growth story with an optimized portfolio looking to expand copper exposure through large greenfield (i.e. Vicuna) and smaller, capital efficient brownfield projects (i.e. Sauva),” said Mr. Stroup. “The equity path forward is catalyst-rich with 2026 building on the foundational 2025 that culminated in the company’s multi-year strategy to focus on copper production expansion and divesting non-core assets.”
“We rate LUN at Buy. Citi maintains a bullish long-term view on copper. We see meaningful upside in the current brownfield project and satellite deposits (e.g. Sauva at Chapada and Angelica at Caserones) being scoped while the long-term growth from Vicuna provides a significant uplift to NAV and thestock. Downside risks surround execution risk in aforementioned projects and capex overruns.”
Elsewhere, coming off restriction for a small charity flow-through share issuance, Desjardins Securities’ Bryce Adams raised his Hudbay target to $30 from $26 after updating his commodity price deck.
“With strong support from near-term gold prices and longer-term copper growth, we continue to have a favourable outlook on the HBM shares and reiterate our Buy rating,” said Mr. Adams.
CIBC World Markets analyst Stephanie Price says she sees valuations for Canadian software companies as “attractive” after a year of weakness.
“Our software coverage has returned negative 20 per cent year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P Software and Services average (up 10 per cent year-to-date) and the resource heavy TSX (up 26 per cent). Our small-cap coverage had the toughest year, with DND (down 78 per cent),DCBO (down 53 per cent), and CMG (down 54 per cent) seeing significant share price declines amid a tough macro environment, delayed enterprise sales cycles, and investor concerns on AI disruption. Our larger-cap tech names did not fare much better, with CGI (down 21 per cent) and CSU (down 25 per cent) seeing significant share price erosion on company-specific headwinds and AI concerns. Looking into 2026, we expect enterprise spending to continue to recover and AI revenue to begin to become more meaningful to our software names under coverage.”
In a client report released Monday titled Hoping For Better Days In 2026, Ms. Price made a pair of rating revisions.
Citing “increased confidence” in its growth profile, she upgraded Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $203 target, rising from $201. The average is $229.50.
Conversely, expecting “near-term volatility to continue amid government and private-sector demand uncertainty,” she downgraded CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $139 target, down from $149. The average is $146.49.
Ms. Price also unveiled her top picks for 2026:
* Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) with an “outperformer” rating and $5,260 target, down from $5,480. The average is $4,997.14.
Analyst: “We see Constellation as attractively valued at these levels. It had a rare down year in 2025 after the retirement of Mark Leonard for health reasons, with investors also concerned about AI disruption and slower M&A deployment. We view slower M&A deployment in 2025 as a function of the large deal pipeline, which can be lumpy. Constellation has a solid pipeline of deals and we forecast $2.3-billion in free cash flow available to shareholders (FCFA2S) in 2026. We expect that recent AI-related concerns potentially improve the valuation environment, especially for smaller vertical market software firms.
“We see limited potential for AI disruption given Constellation’s diversified business model (acquired over 600 vertical market software firms) and its public sector weighted customer base. We see opportunities for Constellation to use AI internally to improve efficiency to add AI capabilities to its offerings using a pragmatic, customer-focused approach. At this point, we see the stock as attractively valued, trading at a six-turn discount to its two-year average.”
* Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T) with an “outperformer” rating and $198 target (unchanged). Average: $267.84.
Analyst: “Despite market concerns, we view TRI as approaching AI from a position of strength. The company’s legal and tax software solutions are industry standards and we believe TRI is well positioned as it integrates GenAI tools into these platforms. Roughly 24 per cent of TRI’s large recurring revenue base is now coming from AI-enhanced products and TRI continues to release new AI solutions, announcing the launch of CoCounsel Legal, combining multiple legal solutions into a single product. We also expect a ramp up in product enhancements in its Tax & Accounting business over 2026. We view TRI’s proprietary content and distribution advantage as an incumbent as key competitive differentiators in the push for GenAI market share. We expect organic growth in TRI’s Big 3 segments to accelerate by 40 bps in 2026 to 9.4 per cent given market and GenAI tailwinds.”
“Despite TRI’s 81-per-cent recurring revenue, sticky product mix, resilient end customers, and GenAI upside, the stock is now trading roughly in line with information services peers versus a 0.6 times average premium over the past four years. We view the stock as attractively valued at these levels.”
* Docebo Inc. (DCBO-Q, DCBO-T) with an “outperformer” rating and US$33 target (unchanged). Average: US$35.63.
Analyst: “In our small-cap space, we view Docebo as attractively valued at current levels. The company’s shares underperformed in 2025, impacted by sector-wide concerns regarding AI-driven disruption and company-specific factors. Notably, AWS, a major enterprise customer, reduced its subscription level, although it continues to use Docebo for three smaller use cases. Additionally, the conclusion of Docebo’s OEM agreement with Dayforce resulted in a wind-down of associated SaaS revenue. While the termination of the Dayforce contract had been an overhang for some time, we now have greater visibility into the materiality and timing of its impact on ARR as the terms between the two companies have been finalized. Similarly, although the AWS downgrade negatively affects ARR, we have quantified and incorporated this impact into our models. Even after modelling these headwinds and the resulting lower revenue, we still see Docebo as attractively valued, with shares currently trading at 2.1 times sales.”
“We also view improving profitability as a positive catalyst for a potential re-rating. The company achieved a 20-per-cent adjusted EBITDA margin in the most recently reported quarter and is guiding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.5 per cent to 21.0 per cent for Q4. Looking ahead, we expect Docebo to deliver a 20-per-cent annualized margin in 2026 as the company continues to benefit from operating leverage, particularly in general and administrative expenses.”
In conclusion, Ms. Price said: “Our software coverage had a tough year in 2025. We look forward to a better 2026, with overall enterprise IT spending poised to improve and GenAI projects expected to move into the mainstream. From here, we see valuation upside to most of our SaaS coverage, including DCBO, D2L, and KXS. We see a solid setup for our software consolidators as well, with CSU, DSGX, and TRI poised to benefit from an attractive M&A environment, with incented sellers and reasonable valuations.”
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski says 2025 was “a year in which stock picking drove alpha” within his Canadian Diversified Financials coverage universe, and he predicts 2026 will “be no different.”
“Our coverage underperformed the S&P TSX Composite by 382 basis points on average, with 5 of 17 stocks outperforming,” he said. “Our coverage underperformed the S&P TSX Financials Composite by 660 basis points on average (we note Canadian banks are up 40 per cent year-to-date), with 5 of 17 stocks outperforming.”
In a client note released Monday, Mr. Dziarski reaffirmed his “top ideas” in the sector, believing “all three companies provide upside catalysts in 2026 in a favourable macro environment and defensive attributes if we experience macro volatility.”
His “top overall pick” remains Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$58 target, rising from US$57. The average is US$52.09.
“Although BN has re-rated in 2025, we believe the market is still overly discounting the business despite tailwinds into 2026, most notably carried interest realizations,” he said.
“Attractive valuation with multiple value creation levers. To frame the upside opportunity embedded in today’s share price, we highlight the investors are effectively paying 1.0x P/B for Brookfield’s non-real estate private investments (i.e. Brookfield Wealth Solutions invested capital, accrued carry), while $8/share value is given for (i) Brookfield’s real estate holdings (valued at $15/share @ 100% IFRS values); ii) Brookfield Wealth Solutions value above invested capital ($4/share), and iii) Target Carry ($5/share).”
Mr. Dziarski’s top growth pick is Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $47 target (Street high). The average is $42.33.
“Element continues to announce initiatives supporting an underlying mix-shift to a more capital-light, recurring, and higher ROE business underpinning our multiple re-rate thesis,” he said.
His top value pick is Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FRFHF, FFH-T) with an “outperform” and US$2,200 target. The average is US$2,158.50.
“We expect the valuation discount vs. peers to narrow as Fairfax continues to deliver solid operating results. Recent inclusion into the S&P/TSX 60 Index should build investor interest,” he said.
Mr. Dziarski added: “Our small-cap picks: (1) TSU - we believe risk-reward setup for investors skews well in 2026. (2) AGF - we believe both constructive equity markets and AGF’s net flows outperformance vs. industry persist. Our other Outperform-rated stocks include BAM (high-teens FRE growth entering 2026 fundraising cycle), TMX (mix shift toward recurring revenue), DFY (Traveler’s acquisition not fully priced in), and BBU (capital recycling activity continues and stock trades at an elevated discount to NAV).
“Where are we most cautious? (1) Goeasy - 2025 was a challenging year for the company with several management changes (CEO, CFO) and slowing earnings growth. While the stock has de-rated, we remain cautious as we believe guidance is at risk of being reduced and we are monitoring leverage ratios vs. bank covenants. (2) ONEX - we believe the company may announce further on-balance sheet acquisitions as the pivot from its core business towards an operating company continues.”
The analyst made two other target changes:
- Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N/BAM-T, “outperform”) to US$74 from US$76. Average: US$65.13.
- Onex Corp. (ONEX-T, “sector perform”) to $139 from $141. Average: $158.
In a client report released early Monday, TD Cowen analyst Derick Ma initiated coverage of ATEX Resources Inc. (ATX-X) with a “buy” rating, seeing its Valeriano exploration-stage, copper-gold project in Chile “offering significant resource upside potential from ongoing exploration and strong gold optionality” and seeing it as “a compelling acquisition target due to its jurisdiction, scale, high-grade mineralization, and proximity to other early-stage asset.”
“Based on the current resource and available exploration data, we believe Valeriano has the potential to become a 150kt+ CuEq underground block cave mine in the future,” he said. “There is no published preliminary economic assessment or pre-feasibility study for Valeriano.
:ATEX is unlikely to build the Valeriano block cave as a standalone company, in our view, due to the technical complexities and the large initial capital requirements. This type of project tends to either be joint ventured or acquired by a major mining company with a lower cost of capital, other operating assets and technical experience/expertise with block cave mining. District potential or collaboration opportunities. There are two other exploration properties adjacent to Valeriano; (i) El Encierro operated by Antofagasta and Barrick, and (ii) El Torrente operated by Codelco. There is strong industrial logic for capital intensive projects to share infrastructure, in our view. This trend of cost and risk sharing illustrated by several recent collaborative mining arrangements in Chile and Argentina, including; Lundin/BHP at the Vicuña JV, Teck/Newmont at NuevaUnión, and the contemplated synergies at Anglo American/Teck’s QB2 and Collahuasi mines."
Mr. Ma also thinks exploration at the project could “unlock a phased development, buildable by a mid-cap or a junior mining company.”
“We estimate that the high-grade, near-surface resource at Valeriano would need to expand to more than 100Mt at similar or higher grades as current high-grade ‘B2B’ breccia, to justify a ‘starter’ underground mine. (i.e., long-hole or panel cave) and the required infrastructure,” he noted. “A phased development approach lowers the initial project complexity, capex, and funding risk and could result in a project potentially buildable by standalone ATEX or a mid-cap mining company. A ‘starter mine’ also widens the potential pool of joint venture partners or acquirers for Valeriano, in our view.”
He set a target of $4.25 per share. The average is currently $4.30.
In other analyst actions:
* BMO’s Randy Ollenberger upgraded Birchliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with an $8.50 target, up from $7.50. The average is $8.75.
“The company has been one of the best performing gas names in 2025, and we suspect there is more to come,” he said. “We believe that BIR is better positioned than ever to achieve its 87.5 mboe/d growth target after years of delaying. Furthermore, we estimate material upside in its extensive Elmworth acreage that is unlikely appreciated in the current stock price.
“Lastly, BIR could be major beneficiary of a tighter NYMEX:AECO basis, which we see developing 2H/26.”
* In a report titled Been a Good Run, Mr. Ollenberger downgraded Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $129 target, down from $132. The average is $109.10.
“Imperial has delivered outstanding share price performance in 2025 along with consistent operational execution and financial results,” he said. “At current prices, the shares reflect a large valuation premium and with their 2025 NCIB coming to an end, we see limited upside versus peers without higher oil prices to support an SIB.
“The company continues to boast one of the strongest financial positions and continues to deliver superior ROCE, but several peers offer more compelling relative value.”
* BMO’s John Gibson lowered Ensign Energy Services Inc. (ESI-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $3.50 target (unchanged). The average is $3.
“ESI has done a solid job at paying down absolute debt levels, a trend we expect will continue through 2026, although shareholder returns are not expected to ramp until 2027 at the earliest,” he said. “With the stock up 30 per cent since August, we believe better near-term opportunities in the Canadian oilfield service space lie elsewhere.”
* Jefferies’ Sam Burwell upgraded South Bow Corp. (SOBO-T) to “buy” from “hold” and raised his target to $45 from $39. The average on the Street is $39.01.
* Following the release of its 2026 annual budget, which he thinks reflected “the strength and resilience of its portfolio,” National Bank’s Dan Payne raised his Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) target to $8.50 from $8, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $7.29.
“The company continues to reflect the resilience of its portfolio in support of strong risk-adjusted value creation (thermal at Leismer continues to carry near-term returns), which should resonate across its interests over the long term in support of outsized shareholder returns (again, principally through buybacks); ATH is poised for a 5-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 12 per cent) on leverage of negative 0.5 times (vs. peers 0.6 times), while trading at 7.8 times 2026 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 6.1 times),” said Mr. Payne.
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini cut his Telus Corp. (T-T) target by $1 to $25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $20.78.
“The issuance of $2.9-billion more hybrid debt securities (which get 50-per-cent equity treatment by rating agencies), and some increased disclosure on working capital, has refined our thinking about both debt leverage targets and our FCF forecasts. PT lowered $1.00 owing largely to more conservative Healthcare target multiple,” he said.