Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
TD Cowen analyst Tim James believes Bombardier Inc.’s (BBD.B-T) “unprecedented valuation expansion and resulting multiples may have staying power in 2026.”
“We think the factors driving the forward EBITDA multiple expansion of 3.8 times since moving to HOLD (July/25) and driving sector and industry sentiment to new highs are sustainable in 2026,” he said. “In the absence of earnings disappointments or defense order losses in 2026 (neither of which we expect), we believe risk of a material near-term correction in BBD’s historically strong valuation multiples is limited.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. James admitted he has been “underestimating market enthusiasm” for Aerospace and Defence sector investments as well “Bombardier’s Defence outlook (estimated 10 per cent of 2026 revenue), and slowing but still positive (and expected) fundamental progress in 2025.”
“We acknowledge that Canadian defence spending intentions, global military conflict, U.S. initiatives that are fraying international relations, and record equity markets all bode well for investor sentiment,” he added. “However, we also don’t believe fundamental outlook has changed materially, evidenced by 1.7-per-cent increase in our 2026 EBITDA estimate over the past 12 months and unchanged consensus.
“Looking beyond 2026, we believe risk to end of decade earnings potential has decreased, but upside hasn’t changed dramatically. We view Bombardier’s financial progress since 2020 as incredible and worthy of significant multiple expansion, though we are less convinced that improvements and industry backdrop shift since Apr/25 support the 155-per-cent increase in the fwd P/E multiple (vs 24 per cent for comps) and 100-per-cent increase in the forward EBITDA multiple (vs 22 per cent for comps).”
Maintaining his “hold” rating for Bombardier shares, Mr. James hiked his target to $278 from $203. The average target on the Street is $238.88, according to LSEG data.
“We see several potential catalysts that could cause a pullback in BBD’s multiple,” he said “However, we aren’t in a position to factor two of them into our investment recommendation, and the other two are unlikely, in our view. ... Not contemplated in our thesis: 1 Material equity market correction. 2 Significantly negative USMCA revisions with regard to civil and/or A&D trade. Potential catalysts we think are unlikely: 1 Earnings disappointments moving through 2026. 2 Loss of high profile defence orders.”
Seeing the consensus forecast for Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) as too high, given his lower forecast of consumer loan yield in 2026, TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding downgraded its shares to a “hold” rating from “buy” previously.
“We believe the run-off of higher-yielding loans and potential write-off of some interest receivables could weigh on the consumer yield and earnings,” he said. “A muted earnings growth profile could keep valuation compressed (we forecast a 6-per-cent two-year EPS CAGR through 2026.”
Mr. Ryding is now 5 per cent below the consensus earnings per share projection for the fourth quarter of 2025 ($4.44 versus $4.70) and 9 per cent lower for full-year 2026 ($18.75 versus $20.61).
“Although we are factoring-in management’s cautious outlook towards credit (from Q3/25) into our Q4/25 forecasts, we believe the primary difference between us and consensus for 2026 is our lower consumer yield forecast,” he said. “We are modelling 29.5 per cent (the lower end of current guidance of 29.0-31.0 per cent) vs. consensus of 30.2 per cent (we estimate). The introduction of a regulated rate cap of 35 per cent in 2025 contributed to goeasy’s consumer yield compressing 280bps (2025 YTD average vs. 2024). As of Q4/24, 33 per cent of goeasy’s loans had legacy rates above the 35-per-cent rate cap. This mix decreased to 18 per cent as of Q3/25. As the remaining higher-yielding loans roll off, we expect further yield compression in 2026.
“In addition, goeasy’s interest receivable remains elevated (2.6 per cent of loans vs. historical average of 1.3 per cent). We see potential for some interest receivable write-offs in 2026 to weigh against interest income and overall yield. Our forecast of a 9.0-per-cent charge-off rate in 2026 is in line with consensus (8.9 per cent) and towards the higher end of guidance (7.5-9.5 per cent). New three-year guidance (2026-2028) expected with Q4/25 results. We see potential for the consumer yield range and operating margin guidance to move lower. We are at the lower end of guidance for yield, and below guidance for operating margin.”
Mr. Ryding cut his target for Goeasy shares to $135 from $160. The average is $189.
“goeasy’s valuation has historically been highly correlated with earnings growth expectations,” he said. “Earnings growth has been soft in 2025, and we believe it could remain challenged in 2026; our estimates imply a 6-per-cent two-year EPS CAGR (2026/2024). We see potential for consumer yield compression to weigh on earnings (we are 9 per cent below consensus on 2026E EPS).
“Our estimates are unchanged. We have lowered our multiple to reflect the potential for consensus to move lower, and 2026 to be another challenging year for earnings growth.”
Ahead of fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canada’s life insurance companies, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Darko Mihelic is forecasting “significantly lower EPS growth into 2026 for all lifecos versus 2025 as experience ‘normalizes’, assets under management growth expectations normalize, and CSM [contractual service margin] simply amortizes into earnings at run rate pace.”
“We adjust our models modestly into Q4/25 reporting and our core EPS estimates decrease by an average of 0.6 per cent for the large Canadian lifecos we cover,” he said. “We expect core EPS to decrease 6 per cent quarter-over-quarter but increase 6 per cent year-over-year in Q4/25 on average for the group. Based on historical dividend cadences, we expect GWO, MFC, and SFC to declare common shared dividend increases this quarter.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Mihelic cautioned that life insurance companies do not typically release detailed full-year financial guidance with its fourth-quarter results, like its Canadian bank peers. However, he’s hoping for “slightly” more detailed forecasts following 2025, which he expects will be “a strong year for EPS growth in many cases aided by what appears to be better experience (credit, morbidity, etc.) with the exception of MFC.”
While he made estimates adjustments across his coverage universe, the analyst reiterated his ratings and target prices for their shares. They are currently:
* Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $60 target. The average target on the Street is $65.40.
Analyst: “Our base EPS estimate remains relatively unchanged and we expect GWO’s base EPS to decrease 5 per cent quarter-over-quarter but increase 6 per cent year-over-year. We expect a QoQ decrease in its base EPS as we expect lower insurance experience gains QoQ. We mostly update our estimates for higher U.S. pre-tax retirement base earnings, partially offset by lower estimates in Canada. We also increase our expected credit loss (ECL) charge estimates to reflect the normal range of quarterly ECLs expected by GWO.”
* IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $167 target. Average: $172.
Analyst: “Our core EPS estimate remains relatively unchanged and we expect its core EPS to decrease 7 per cent quarter-over-quarter but increase 6 per cent year-over-year. Our expectation for a QoQ decline is mostly due to a small sequential reduction in core net investment result and higher preferred dividends/other equity instrument distributions in the Investment segment. Our model updates include our estimated core earnings impact from interest rate and market movements in Wealth Management and Investment, partially offset by lower expected insurance earnings in Insurance, Canada and U.S. Operations.”
* Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) with an “outperform” rating and $52 target. Average: $56.17.
Analyst: “We lower our core EPS estimate by 0.9 per cent and we expect MFC’s core EPS to decrease 9 per cent quarter-over-quarter but increase 2 per cent year-over-year. We expect a normalized ECL charge mostly in the U.S. and lower our Asia estimates, partially offset by higher estimates in Canada.”
* Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. (SFC-T) with an “outperform” rating and $10 target. Average: $11.19.
Analyst: “Our underlying EPS estimate decreases by 2 per cent and we expect a 3-per-cent quarter-over-quarter decrease but an 8-per-cent tear-over-year increase. The QoQ increase is mainly because we do not expect insurance experience gains in Canada or ECL charges to repeat in the same magnitude as Q3/25. We reflect tracked AUM flows and balances and our Asset Management estimates slightly decrease. Our underlying earnings estimates in Canada and Corporate slightly decrease, partially offset by higher estimates in U.S. and Asia.”
* Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $84 target. Average: $89.79.
Analyst: “Our core EPS estimate decreases by 12 per cent and we expect its core EPS to decrease 39 per cent quarter-over-quarter mostly due to our expected core earnings impact related to Hurricane Melissa.”
Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman feels Savaria Corp. (SIS-T) is on course to be one of his top picks again this year while pointing to “upside risk to fourth-quarter numbers which provides a higher starting point and lends more credence to the rollout of Savaria 2.0 in April.”
“The new strategic cycle is expected to focus on top-line growth, and we think it’s possible the company will already have some easy wins under its belt by the time the plan is unveiled,” he said.
“Recall, Savaria 1.0, which ended up focusing more on profitability, was launched in 2Q23 and margins improved sequentially for next nine quarters expanding almost 500 basis points to approximately 20 per cent as of 3Q25 – without operating leverage. While top-line growth is always a heavier lift, with the addition of a full-time Chief Transformation Officer (one of the architects of S1), the company has internalized the capabilities and shifted the organizational culture for the next leg of growth."
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Goldman said his fourth-quarter 2025 financial expectations for the Laval, Que.-based accessibility solutions provider are in-line with consensus projections on the Street, but he does see upside risk to Accessibility margins. He added it is “typically a seasonally weaker quarter, but continued momentum on Savaria 1.0 could see results buck the trend.”
“End markets are stable, but at trough, and with interest rates coming down, we could see an uptick in new residential activity. Patient Care is lapping a really tough comp, but on the last call management noted the backlog was elevated and it was getting ready for a ‘busy 4Q’. We raised our multiple to 11.5 times EV/EBITDA (from 10.75 times), closer to the company’s 10-year average to account for potential reacceleration of organic growth (back to historical algorithm in mid-single-digits range) and capital optionality.”
“Growth, growth, growth. Management was quite candid that growth has been below their expectations. Initial guidance called for 5-8 per cent in 2025 vs. less than 1 per cent year-to-date. To be fair, part of the lower growth was due to intentional shedding of lower-margin accounts in Europe. The company provided a teaser of Savaria 2.0 initiatives on its last earnings call, including driving sales of newer products (Matot and Luma through-the-floor lift); expansion of R&D team (up to 62 from 50 last year); brand name change in Europe to reflect expanded product portfolio closer to one-stop shop; developing market for direct stores; price increases; and M&A. We also note the company is underpenetrated in stairlifts in NA while it has sufficient capacity for the next leg of growth. Making CTO Jean-Philippe De Montigny also President of Europe strikes a good balance of organizational knowledge and fresh perspective in a region that has been more challenged.”
Maintaining his “sector outperform” rating for Savaria shares, Mr. Goldman raised his target to $29 from $26. The average is $28.
“Shares are up only 13 per cent in the past four years (with all of that return back-end weighted) despite growing EBITDA/share by 70 per cent over the same period,” he explained. “Implementation of Savaria 2.0 and easy comps should support a reacceleration of organic growth and a potential re-rate closer to the 10-year average of 12 times from 10.4 times. The B/S is in the best shape since the transformational acquisition in 2021 with leverage at 1.2 times. We have leverage coming down further to 0.6 times exiting 2026 as consultant fees roll-off ($20 million drag in 2025) and FCF ramps. The tone around tuck-in M&A was much more bullish on the last call, in our view.”
“Following several operational challenges in 2022 and 2023, we think investors view Savaria One (S1) targets as overly ambitious. However, our analysis suggests that between conservative industry assumptions and success on internal initiatives achieved to date, the company can get most of the way to its goal of $200 million EBITDA in or exiting 2025 compared to $130 million in 2023. Even before considering potential upside from longer-cycle initiatives, such as procurement and cross-selling, we believe Savaria can comfortably compound EBITDA per share at 15 per cent through 2025 at least. Year-to-date results demonstrate that the S1 transformation program is much further along than previously thought. The opportunity with Savaria is that upside surprises could lift both Street estimates and drive multiple expansion.”
National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed thinks Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund’s (CHE.UN-T) 2026 guidance “highlights uncertainty, but may undersell opportunity.”
On Jan. 8, the Toronto-based trust announced it’s projecting record adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025, surpassing 2023 when it generated adjusted EBITDA of $502.6-million. It also said it expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA to range between $485-million and $525-million.
It also said it’s increasing its monthly distribution to 6 cents from 5.75 cents.
“Given the continued potential for geopolitical volatility, 2026 guidance is understandably cautious, and came in below Street expectations with the midpoint of 2026e roughly flat with 2025’s guide of $502.6-million,” said Mr. Evershed. “With multiple sources of lift this year, however (Polytec, Cairo, caustic), and the current management team’s history of conservatism, we believe the path to year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026e remains eminently possible. Taken in tandem with continued investment in organic growth, we believe the table is set for another series of guidance raises, provided macro and trade conditions do not collapse.”
Citing the expectation for “pressured” MECU (metric electrochemical unit) netbacks and “the continuation of a weaker chlorine market,” Mr. Evershed lowered his 2026 EBITDA projection to $513.0-million, still within the upper half of guidance but under the consensus expectation of $519.8-million. His assumptions for 2027 include 2-per-cent year-over-year EBITDA growth, but “allow CHE to remain on track to reach its Vision 2030 goal of $550-600-million in Adj. EBITDA by 2030.”
“While the complexities of repatriating all U.S. manufacturing may outweigh political will, we believe the growth runway remains substantial given the concentration of chip fabrication capacity among incumbents such as Intel and Samsung, both of which have invested significantly in the U.S.,” he said. “In 2021, it was projected that total North American demand would triple over five years. While the expected magnitude has since moderated, we believe this original tripling projection provides a strong baseline before even factoring in recent AI tailwinds.
“As Chemtrade ramps up production of ultrapure sulfuric acid (UPA) in its Cairo facility and strives to meet customers’ most stringent quality requirements for production of leading edge chips, the company is well-positioned to benefit from any favourable movement in domestic U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, such as the $250 billion to be invested by Taiwanese semiconductor and technology companies to expand U.S. production capacity as announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce on January 15.”
Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Chemtrade units, Mr. Evershed raised his target to $18 from $17.50. The average target on the Street is $19.13.
“Beyond the possibility of outperformance vs. guidance, we see potential for further upside to our target as CHE remains active on its NCIB, and it is worth highlighting that there is certainly room for multiple expansion,” he said.
“Given potential for upside surprise on the fundamentals, management alignment on addressing compressed valuation through the NCIB, and supportive transaction valuations in the space, we reiterate our Outperform rating..”
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting Metro Inc. (MRU-T) to report “solid” earnings per share growth in the first quarter despite elevated costs stemming from an outage at its Frozen Distribution Centre in Toronto.
He is now projected earnings per share for the quarter, which will be revealed on Jan. 27, of $1.17, up a penny from his previous estimate and 7 cents from the same period a year ago but 3 cents under the consensus forecast on the Street.
Mr. Shreedhar said his 6-per-cent year-over-year EPS growth expectation reflects positive same-store sales growth as well as “store network growth, share repurchases and a higher gross margin rate, partly offset by higher SG&A (direct costs related to the Frozen DC outage), higher D&A and higher interest.”
He also models a quarterly dividend increase of 9.7 per cent to 41 cents per share.
“We anticipate sssg of 1.8 per cent, reflecting ongoing strength in discount and good food store sales trends (Statistics Canada), partly offset by disruptions due to the Toronto Frozen DC (slight impact to assortment; normal operations resumed at the end of December),” he said. “MRU expects an after-tax impact of $15-$20 million, reflecting inventory losses and other direct costs (EPS drag of $0.07-$0.09).
“Our expectations for strong drug retail sssg reflects government data indicating that flu trends are significantly higher year-over-year, which we expect will benefit sssg, all else equal. Beyond the quarter, price increases are expected in February (MRU currently in a price freeze), albeit management expects inflation to remain in the range of 2-3 per cent.”
Maintaining his investment thesis for the Montreal-based company, he kept an “outperform” rating and $107 target. The average is currently $113.50.
“Our review of peer commentary suggests: (i) Resilience in consumer spending, and (ii) Moderating momentum in “Buy Canadian”, although we understand it continues to be higher than non-Canadian," he added.
“We believe MRU is a solid company which has delivered solid long-term returns over various economic cycles. However, our coverage presents investments which offer a better comparative investment proposition.”
In other analyst actions:
* Pointing to operational improvements at its Cauchari Olaroz facility, HSBC’s Ishan Jain upgraded Lithium Argentina Ag (LAR-N, LAR-T) to “buy” from “hold” with a US$9.60 target, rising from US$4.75 and exceeding the US$7.06 average.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Anthony Taglieri initiated coverage of Saskatoon-based CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. (CVV-X) with a “speculative buy” rating and a $1.35 price target. The average is $1.38.
“CanAlaska is an exploration-stage uranium company with a significant land package in the world’s most prominent basin for uranium discovery. In our view, CanAlaska is well positioned as a pure-play uranium explorer; the company is well on its way to defining a tier one resource at the Pike Zone, which is strategically located near Cameco’s operating McArthur River mine and provides free option value through additional discovery potential. Given a strong uranium fundamental backdrop, we believe investors will rotate into developers and quality explorers; we see CVV as set to benefit. The company has no shortage of prospective targets, boasts a strong balance sheet, and has the right team to execute, in our view,” he said.
* CIBC’s Luke Bertozzi initiated coverage of Hemlo Mining Corp. (HMMC-X) with an “outperformer” rating and $7.50 target, exceeding the $6 average.
“Hemlo Mining completed the acquisition of the Hemlo mine in November 2025. The acquisition was anchored by a technical study that highlights an average of 138koz attributable gold production per year at an AISC of $1,395/oz over a 14-year mine life. However, the mine plan is based on a reserve gold price assumption of $1,700/oz, and with the sustained strength in the price of gold, management intends to reoptimize the mine based on a higher gold price and lower cut-off grade. We have incorporated a lower cut-off grade in our model, resulting in a larger mineable resource, an improved production profile, and higher leverage to gold prices,” he said.
“Recent asset divestitures by large cap producers have provided opportunities for investors to gain exposure to historic assets operated by highly motivated management teams, with precedent companies outperforming the GDXJ by an average of 57 per cent in the six months post transaction announcement. At Hemlo, the biggest opportunity is optimizing the Hemlo mine plan for a higher gold price, in our view. We expect this will grow the resource, improve the production profile and add leverage to gold. The company ranks near the top of the small / mid cap producer peer group for NAV sensitivity to gold and we believe it is positioned to outperform in the current strong gold market.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Luke Hannan raised his AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T) target to $42 from $36, exceeding the $32.20 average, with a “buy” rating,
“We believe execution of the latest round of cost-cutting positions ACQ well to generate operating leverage on its base business going forward. With proceeds incoming from the previously announced US divestitures, the company is well situated to scale its collision repair business, which should provoke investors to reward the stock with a higher multiple as this higher margin and more ratable business makes up a greater proportion of ACQ’s overall EBITDA,” said Mr. Hannan.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello raised his Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (CFW-T) target to $5.25 from $4.25 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $5.50.
“We believe CFW’s strong share performance (up 17 per cent year-to-date and up 70 per cent since November 14, 2025) and uncertainty regarding both 2026 activity and the timing and scale of a resurgence in Argentina completions demand could limit upside in CFW shares over the medium-term. Further, we believe the illiquid nature of CFW stock could drive outsized volatility in stock performance through 2026,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Tim James hiked his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to $102 from $92 with a “buy” rating. The average is $94.43.
“We view recent share price strength and valuation multiple expansion as sustainable. Comp multiples are up more than Exchange since Dec/24. Exchange continues to secure new revenue sources while domestic and global industry conditions bode well for future government service-related opportunities. We view the operating companies as relatively resilient to unexpected economic or trade shocks,” said Mr. James.
* RBC’s Michael Harvey increased his target for Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX-T) by $1 to $11, maintaining a “sector perform” rating. The average is $9.87.
“Strong Q4/25 production volumes of approximately 24,250 boe/d compared to RBC/Street (23,736/23,707 boe/d) and drove CFPS of $0.33 (RBC/ Street: $0.32/$0.30). Reserves were up meaningfully and support a recycle ratio of approximately 4 times; PDP up 53 per cent to 44.5 mmboe, 1P up 59 per cent to 68.3 mmboe, and 2P up 54 per cent to 104.5 mmboe. We increase our price target to $11.00 on the back of favourable results and reserve growth,” said Mr. Harvey.
* In response to the announcement that first gold production from Montage Gold Corp.’s (MAU-T) flagship Koné gold project in Côte d’Ivoire has been accelerated to the fourth-quarter of 2026, Scotia Capital’s Ovais Habib raised his target for its shares to $10 from $8.50 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $10.75.
“We view the results as positive for MAU shares as the rapid construction progress since our November 2025 site tour and acceleration of first gold to late 2026 aligns well with prior commentary from management and affords the company improved operational and financial flexibility. With a significant drill program already completed in 2025, and a meaningful new program announced for 2026, we look forward to a corporate mineral resource estimate update planned for Q1/26 which could incorporate a maiden resource on the Petit Yao target,” he said.