Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber is expecting “healthy” fourth-quarter 2025 financial results for Canadian technology companies, but he warns earnings season is “unlikely to change poor software sentiment in the short term.”
“The macro environment appeared largely stable through the quarter,” he said in a client report. “Our U.S. Software team recently previewed calendar Q4 and expects upside to Q4 estimates. However, healthy Q4 results are unlikely to change negative software sentiment in the short term. Moreover, the market is risk-averse and any negative surprises may lead to a further and disproportionate downward valuation re-rating, in light of the market sensitivity regarding AI disruption.”
“Canadian software stocks, roiled by AI disruption fears, continue to see valuation multiples compress. While we expect Q4 results largely in line with consensus and believe the magnitude of the pullback in software valuations is an overreaction, we are reducing our price targets on 7 software stocks in our coverage, as negative sentiment may persist in the short term. Among our covered stocks, we believe the best positioned stocks for calendar Q4 results are Celestica, Shopify, and Kinaxis.”
Mr. Treiber noted the average software stock in his coverage universe has dropped 9 per cent thus far in 2026, following a 9-per-cent decline in 2025, given the uncertainty regarding the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the sector.
“Valuation for the average stock is 1.1 standard deviations below its historical average and ranks in the 13th percentile of its historical range,” he said. “While we believe that the pullback in software valuations is an overreaction, as we believe software will evolve to incorporate, rather than be disrupted by, new AI innovations, we are lowering our price targets to reflect higher risk premiums on software and reduced peer valuations.”
The analyst made these target revisions:
* CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T, “outperform”) to $150 from $165. The average target on the Street is $178.48, according to LSEG data.
* Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T, “outperform”) to $4,800 from $5,600. Average: $4,695.43.
Analyst: “We expect Constellation’s shares to be largely flat through Q4 results, even though the stock is already trading at a multi-year valuation low, as Q4 likely won’t eliminate AI disruption concerns. For Q4, we anticipate the quarter will be largely in line with consensus, with adj. EBITDA up 20 per cent year-over-year, despite slower-than-expected M&A, as a slightly stronger-than-expected FX tailwind and potential margin upside offset lower capital deployed on acquisitions.”
* Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T, “outperform”) to $200 from $235. Average: $227.40.
Analyst: “We believe Kinaxis will report healthy Q4 results, largely in line with consensus, and showing continued growth re-acceleration. We believe Kinaxis’s FY26 guidance will show further strengthening growth and profitability. With valuation at the low end of Kinaxis’s historical range, we see compelling risk-reward on the shares.”
* Lumine Group Inc. (LMN-X, “outperform”) to $42 from $50. Average: $49.
* OpenText Corp. (OTEX-Q/OTEX-T, “sector perform” to US$33 from US$35. Average: US$38.75.
* Topicus.com Inc. (TOI-X, “outperform”) to $160 from $190. Average: $194.99.
* Vitalhub Corp. (VHI-T, “outperform” to $12 from $13.
For his other “best positioned” stocks, his ratings and targets are:
* Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$400 target. The average is US$370.75.
Analyst: “We expect Celestica to report Q4 above consensus and may raise FY26 guidance, given strong demand against the company’s historically conservative outlook. Peer results (Broadcom, Accton) show continued strong hyperscaler demand. In light of likely upside to consensus estimates and continued robust growth, we anticipate Celestica’s valuation to remain above peers and toward the high end of its historical range.”
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q, SHOP-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$200 target. Average: US$180.64.
Analyst: “We believe Shopify is likely to report solid Q4 results, with likely upside to consensus estimates of a similar magnitude as the last several quarters. While Q1 is seasonally soft, we believe Q1 consensus estimates are overly conservative and Q1 guidance may exceed consensus. Given Shopify’s strong growth momentum and market enthusiasm for Shopify’s AI innovations, we believe the stock is likely to continue to trade at the high end of its 3-year historical range.”
With a surge in copper and spot uranium prices in December and January, Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams reaffirmed his “constructive” view on pricing, pointing to “improving demand optimism and anticipated supply constraints for both commodities.”
With those conditions, he predicts producers in his coverage universe will benefit from those “supportive” macro tailwinds, and noting “those with gold credits (FM, ERO, HBM, LUN) are also supported by record gold prices.”
“Copper prices jumped in December vs earlier in 4Q, reaching record levels of approximately US$5.67/lb, driven by continued supply concerns alongside increased U.S. rate-cut expectations, optimism around U.S.–China trade talks, and more speculative activities, partially tempered by slower expected demand growth in China,“ he said. ”4Q25 average LME copper prices were US$5.04/lb vs US$4.66/lb in our December outlook, supporting 4Q25 earnings and provisional pricing impacts. Copper prices continued to rise in January and have averaged US$5.92/lb ytd, extending the momentum seen at YE25. Spot uranium prices recovered earlier-quarter losses and moved steadily higher in December and January month-to-date, averaging US$78.50/lb and US$83.17/ lb, respectively, supporting market-linked contracts pricing, while term prices stayed at US$86/lb at year-end. Iron ore prices improved slightly in December for a 4Q average of US$106/t (vs US$105/t in our December outlook) and have averaged US$107/t ytd, demonstrating usual seasonal strength from restocking in China and potential weather supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil. 65-per-cent Fe [iron] averaged a 12-per-cent premium over 62-per-cent Fe in 4Q25 and has increased to 14 per cent year-to-date."
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Adams said most of the producers in his coverage universe met their full-year 2025 guidance, and many now have a “positive setup” for the 12 months ahead.
“Most of our covered producers (ex CIA, ERO) have pre-reported 4Q25 and full-year production. CS, FM, HBM, LUN and TECK all met 2025 guidance, with TECK reporting a 4Q25 beat and FM/HBM/LUN broadly in line, while NICU was slightly below its quarterly guidance,” he said.
“We model an EBITDA beat from TECK.B and expect the AAL merger to close later this year. Our EBITDA expectations are generally in line for other producers, but we expect slight beats from FM, LUN and HBM and are slightly below the Street on CIA, CCO, CS and ERO. ”
To reflect changes to his fourth-quarter 2025 estimates, Mr. Adams made a series of target revisions for stocks. They include:
- First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T, “hold”) to $40 from $34. The average target on the Street is $38.03.
- Cameco Corp. (CCO-T, “buy”) to $185 from $160. Average: $147.47.
- Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T, “hold”) to $74 from $65. Average: $70.44.
- Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T, “buy”) to $35 from $30. Average: $28.94.
- Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T, “buy”) to $36 from $30. Average: $31.11.
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T, “buy”) to $18 from $18.50. Average: $16.94.
- Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T, “hold”) to $45 from $37.50. Average: $40.11.
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is predicting “solid” gross margin expansion its in retail segment as well as the benefits of an extra week in its fourth quarter of 2025 are likely to drive earnings per share growth for Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) when it reports its financial results next month.
He’s now projecting earnings per share for the quarter of $3.72, which is 15 cents lower than the consensus estimate on the Street but a large gain from $3.24 a year ago. He attributes that 15-per-cent year-over-year gain to “revenue growth (positive same-store sales growth across all banners and an extra week, partly offset by lower dealer replenishment), Retail gross margin (excl. petroleum) expansion, share repurchases and lower interest expense, partly offset by retail SG&A deleverage, lower Financial EBT, higher D&A and a higher tax rate (12-cent drag to EPS).”
“We model Q4/25 CTR [Canadian Tire Retail] sssg to slightly moderate sequentially (albeit still positive; Q3/25 was 1.2 per cent) as CTC faced a longer Canada Post strike year-over-year (impacts flyer distribution), as well as cycles a sequentially less favourable comparable base (Q4/24 was 1.1 per cent and Q3/24 was down 2.2 per cent), partly offset by favourable weather trends and continued growth in e-commerce. Our data similarly suggests sales trends tapered,” said Mr. Shreedhar.
“Further, we expect revenue at CTR (up 5.5 per cent year-over-year) to outpace sssg, reflecting, among other factors, an extra week year-over-year, partly offset by weaker inventory replenishment at dealers. In Financial Services, we forecast pressured gross margin (down 100 basis points year-over-year) and SG&A deleverage (regulatory/strategic investments), albeit we interpret the macro backdrop to be supportive.”
The analyst emphasized peer commentary, particularly south of the border, “points to a continued focus on value.”
“Our review of peer commentary suggests: (i) A financially healthy homeowner cohort (positive outlook for home improvement), and (ii) A stressed middle-to-lower income cohort (continued focus on value). We highlight that many of these peers are U.S. based; readthroughs may not directly apply to CTC’s business in Canada,” he said.
While he maintained his investment thesis and “sector perform” rating to Canadian Tire shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target to $201 from $197 to reflect a roll-forward his valuation period. The average on the Street is $188.50.
“Given uneven operating performance, and ongoing disruption related to the implementation of the True North strategy, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,” he explained. “Indications of resilient consumer spending (which are constructive if sustained) are offset by expectations for heightened near term investments.”
Believing its fair value has been “realized”, TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil downgraded CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) a “hold” recommendation, seeing the return to his target price “no longer sufficient to justify a Buy rating.”
“CES continues to demonstrate best-in-class operational performance and market leadership, with a differentiated business model that consistently delivers EBITDAS margins at or above management’s guidance,” he said. “CEU’s ability to convert EBITDA into free cash flow also outpaces peers, supporting robust shareholder returns through a steady cadence of share buybacks and a growing dividend. Finally, the company’s production-weighted revenue mix and counter-cyclical balance sheet provide resilience and recurring cash flow, even in challenging industry environments.
“After a strong run (up 55 per cent in the last 12 months), CES’ shares are now trading at a 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.8 times, a significant premium to the peer average of 5.0 times. Our DCF-based price target of $16 per share is in line with the current price, suggesting limited upside from here. While the premium is justified by CES’ superior fundamentals, the current valuation leaves little room for further upside in our view, with the market seemingly pricing in meaningful growth which we expect in 2026. Given these factors, we are downgrading CES to HOLD.”
Mr. MacNeil raised his target to $16 from $12. The average is currently $13.49.
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch is “growing more constructive” on oil markets heading into earnings season, pointing to “stronger-than-expected winter price support due to rising geopolitical supply risk, which supported the flattening of our price deck, while reiterating our constructive outlook for natural gas price fundamentals.”
“We caution that sector multiples have continued expanding through the opening weeks of 2026, propelling the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index to an 11+ year high despite languishing oil prices, which diminishes the appeal of investment opportunities,” he added. “Given our more defensive outlook, we retain our bias toward integrated and natural gas–weighted producers, highlighting SU, CVE, PEY and AAV as top picks."
Mr. MacCulloch expects “strong” operational performance across his coverage universe with “quarterly output peaking for most producers.”
“In the oil sands, there were no material disruptions in 4Q25, which was free of planned maintenance, while mining operations were largely unaffected by a brief cold snap in northern Alberta, underscoring industry’s continued improvements in reliability and winter preparedness,” he said. “Meanwhile, natural gas producers were able to unwind voluntary production curtailments with support from rebounding prices, although some operators experienced modest disruptions from well freeze-offs. From a high level, we expect cash flows to closely mirror Street estimates. That said, we anticipate misses from AAV (12 per cent), FRU (5 per cent) and ATH (4 per cent), with beats from SDE (11 per cent) and TVE (4 per cent).”
With the analyst “growing less bearish on 2026 oil markets following stronger-than-expected winter price support due to rising geopolitical supply risk and recent production outages,” he adjusted his WTI price deck for 2026 and 2027 to US$60 per barrel and US$65 per barrel, respectively from US$55 and US$70 while adjusting his Canadian dollar forecast.
“However, we have expanded our 2026 WTI–WCS differential to US$12.50/bbl (from US$11/bbl), reflecting our expectation for increased competition in the U.S. Gulf Coast heavy oil market following the Trump administration’s takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry,“ he said. ”Although we retain our constructive outlook for refiners, we have trimmed our 2026 New York Harbor 3-2-1 crack spread forecast to US $25.00/bbl (from US$27.50/bbl), driven primarily by stronger benchmark oil prices.
“On the natural gas side, we maintain our US$4.00/mcf NYMEX price forecast in 2026–27 following the recent breakdown in the polar vortex, which could deliver record US storage withdrawals. However, we have slashed our 2026 AECO price deck to C$3.00/mcf (from C$3.75/mcf), reflecting mild winter conditions in western Canada which have been exacerbated by LNG Canada delays. Note that we also widened our 2027 NYMEX–AECO basis forecast at the margins. Overseas, we have trimmed our 2027 global natural gas price deck (NBP, TTF and JKM) to US$10.00/mcf (from US$10.50/mcf)."
With those changes, Mr. MacCulloch made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in his coverage universe. For senior producers, his changes are:
* Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, “buy”) to $33 from $33.50. The average is $29.26.
Analyst: “It was an active quarter for CVE, which completed the strategically transformative acquisition of MEG Energy and the sale of its non-operated working interest in the WRB Refining partnership in 4Q25, all while advancing organic growth projects, including West White Rose, and optimization initiatives across its thermal SAGD portfolio. Accordingly, we expect a relatively noisy quarter, with various puts and takes related to the timing and tax implications of recent transactions, which could widen the Street’s range of cash flow and net debt expectations. That said, upstream volumes appear robust, with CVE outlining 4Q25 production guidance of 910–920 mboe/d in conjunction with its 2026 capital budget release in mid-December, the upper end of which aligned with our forecast. Another key area to monitor is the downstream refining contribution; unfortunately, margins in Canada and the US compressed during 4Q25 as crack spreads weakened materially, with added pressure from FIFO inventory losses in the U.S.. By extension, we anticipate a return to negative EBITDA ($16-million) from the U.S. refining complex based on our assumption of a $125-million FIFO loss."
* Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T, “buy”) to $79 from $74. Average: $67.99.
Analyst: “After releasing robust operational results in early January that were positively received by the market, we expect a relatively thin corporate update prior to the investor day on March 31. That said, the company has considerable operational momentum, and management appears poised to continue building on that through the announcement of new performance targets at the investor day, with an overriding focus on delivering additional shareholder value. Given the continued emphasis on streamlining operations, we expect SU to outline new strategies to further ramp production at Fort Hills while potentially re-baselining nameplate capacities of its upgraders and refineries. Meanwhile, the company also plans to present an initial roadmap for long-term replacement of Base Mine volumes, likely through expanded SAGD development later this decade.”
* Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU-T, “buy”) to $70 from $68. Average: $71.90.
Analyst: “Despite strong results from recent B.C. Montney wells, we expect 4Q25 volumes to skew toward the lower end of guidance (655–665 mboe/d), reflecting well freeze-offs in December. However, elevated production, in tandem with improved natural gas pricing, should support rebounding 4Q25 cash flow generation. Otherwise, we expect the company to provide an update on winter M&A activity, including the Peace River High disposition process, with a merger review currently ongoing by the Competition Bureau of Canada for a proposed transaction with CNQ. Although we initially expected a $700–1,000-million price tag for the asset, speculation has recently gravitated toward the $750–800-million range. Looking ahead, we could see TOU decelerate capital spending in response to sustained weakness in western Canadian natural gas prices, although a formal decision is unlikely to surface until spring break-up, aligning with the release of 1Q26 financial results in early May."
* Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T, “buy”) to $14 from $13.50. Average: $14.
Analyst: “We do not anticipate major surprises from 4Q25 financial results coming fresh on the heels of the company’s investor day. Production is expected to be relatively stable vs the prior quarter’s levels, with a slight moderation in cash flow generation driven by softer commodity prices. However, the 2025 reserves update could be impactful following last year’s merger with Veren Energy, along with our expectation for positive technical revisions. Operationally, WCP has prudently elected to moderate asset development this year while emphasizing its ability to optimize capital spending in response to shifting commodity prices. On that note, we believe the company is pursuing several capital efficiency improvement initiatives that have been conservatively accounted for within current guidance, providing scope for positive estimate revisions.”
In a client note previewing fourth-quarter earnings season for Canadian diversified financial companies, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski outlined what he’s focused on as well as reaffirming his top investment ideas for the space.
“Our view for Q4/25 earnings: i) Brookfield entities (BN/BAM/BBU) - fundraising/deployment/ monetization environment. We are positive on BAM heading into Q4/25 earnings and neutral on BN ii) P&C insurance (DFY, FFH, IFC, TSU) - we don’t believe Q4/25 results will be enough to change currently subdued investor sentiment iii) TMX - we are positive on Q4/25 earnings given continued strong volumes and IPO activity iv) EFN - we believe 2026 guidance could drive upward consensus earnings revisions and v) GSY - we are cautious on Q4/25 earnings and believe guidance is at risk of being cut,” he said.
“Our top 3 best ideas remain: (1) Brookfield Corporation, (2) Element Fleet and (3) Fairfax.”
Mr. Dziarski made four target adjustments:
* Sprott Inc. (SII-T, “sector perform”) to $186 (Street high) from $132. The average is $156.67.
Analyst: “We expect robust 50-per-cent year-over-year growth in operating EPS following a significant move higher in commodity prices (i.e. gold, silver). Given inherent operating leverage in Sprott’s business model, we expect Q4/25 results to strike a positive tone.”
* IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T, “sector perform”) to $65 from $51. Average: $61.60.
Analyst: “We forecast EPS of $1.22, up 16 per cent year-over-year driven primarily by higher-than-expected share buybacks in Q4/25. AUM was pre-released so we are focused on underlying trends in IG Wealth Management, Mackenzie and strategic investments (notably Wealthsimple).”
* Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “sector perform”) to $69 from $68. Average: $68.
Analyst: “In our view, quarterly earnings are less important given investors focus on POW’s NAV and NAV discount. With the stock up 70 per cent in 2025, we believe capital allocation priorities will continue to be a focus (i.e. pace of buybacks, supporting potential M&A).”
* Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T, “sector perform”) to $22 from $21. Average: $24.75.
Analyst: “We expect Q4/25 Adj. EBITDA of $47-million, up 20 per cent year-over-year (excl. investment gains). Update on Alaris capital allocation priorities, notable monetization of investments and deployment of capital in a healthy macro and capital markets environment.”
For his best ideas, his ratings and targets are:
* Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$58 target. Average: US$51.99.
Analyst: “BN/BAM/BBU - fundraising/deployment/monetization with our expectation that all three should accelerate in 2026 given a healthy macro and capital markets backdrop. For BN, we expect cash carried interest realizations to be benign and BWS growth to also be subdued given elevated competition and continued pressure on spreads. For BAM we revised our estimates higher primarily reflecting BBU incentive fee payment following BBU’s price increase in Q4/25. We believe investors will focus on BAM’s fundraising outlook given several flagships (i.e. PE, Infrastructure) are in market in 2026.”
* Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $47 target. Average: $42.37.
Analyst: “2026 guidance where we believe there could be upside to consensus estimates. New client wins and VUM growth within management’s guided 2-4-per-cent range.”
* Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) with an “outperform” rating and $2,200 target. Average: $2,902.68.
Analyst: “Investor sentiment on P&C stocks is currently subdued and we don’t believe Q4/25 results will mark a turning point to make investors more excited on the sector. Lower re-investment rates are expected to pressure investment yields which we have reflected in our estimates. Recent Lemonade/Tesla announcement of 50-per-cent rate cuts for autonomous vehicle usage has added to the bearish sentiment on the space. For TSU specifically, we believe a clean quarter within Exited Lines could mark the beginning of turning investor sentiment more positive on the name.”
Scotia Capital analyst Ben Isaacson thinks “deep value investor inbounds on the Forestry space have accelerated recently."
In a research note, he justified his bullish stance by explaining stocks are trading at a 50-per-cent to 90-per-cent discount to replacement cost and he sees the group at 20 per cent to 40 per cent “below mid-cycle fair values, with EBITDA set to improve through ‘27. This assumes a feeble recovery in overall demand.
“On a P/TBV basis, the Trees are at multi-decade lows; while we see several years of trough-based liquidity for all names,” he added.
Mr. Isaacson reaffirmed his preview that lumber names should rally through spring, adding: ”Why: As U.S. channel inventory declines and buyers look to restock, SPF prices will need to move closer to replacement values, which some peg as high as US$550/Mbf (duties included)."
The analyst made a pair of rating upgrades:
* Canfor Corp. (CFP-T) to “sector perform” from “sector underperform” with a $16 target, up from $13. The average is $15.96.
“We have upgraded CFP to Sector Perform and raised our PT to a Street-high of $16/sh. First, CFP is trading at a 22-per-cent discount to our mid-cycle valuation, about a 75-per-cent discount to its replacement cost, and at a price to tangible book value well-below 1 times. This is balanced against liquidity of $1.2-billion, which offers investors multiple years of runway, assuming Q3 trough margins persist (they’re already improving). Second, CFP continues to control what it can, whether through: (1) ongoing improvements to its cost structure, both operationally and via portfolio high-grading; (2) its limited 15-per-cent (net) cross-border exposure to U.S. duties/tariffs; and (3) its 77-per-cent investment in Vida, which investors keep telling us is its crown jewel. Third, on capital allocation, watch for CFP to target no further deterioration to B/S leverage by the end of ‘26. Separately, we believe CFP has an opportunity to consider a small divvy, in part, to meaningfully unlock/broaden the scope of institutional (and retail) investor interest. Finally, and irrespective of pulp/paper conditions, investors like the CFX clean-up transaction,” he said.
Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a $14 target, up from $13. Average: $12.22.
He also raised his Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “sector perform”) target to $18, exceeding the $15.50 average, from $12.50.
“We have upgraded IFP to Sector Outperform and raised our PT to a Street-high of $14/sh,” said the analyst. “First, IFP is trading at a 35-per-cent discount to our mid-cycle valuation, about a 90-per-cent discount to its replacement cost, and at a price to tangible book value well-below 1 times. This is balanced against liquidity of $0.5-billion (Q3 liquidity + equity raise), which should be sufficient to operate at trough/Q3 levels through at least ‘27. Second, our upgrade is, in part, tied to IFP’s strong lumber torque, which we estimate is 2 times to 2.5 times better than CFP’s and WFG’s. This matters, as we see a tightening lumber market through spring. Third, IFP continues to navigate the bottom of the cycle well, through cost optimization initiatives and improved product mix. Also, watch for $30-million to $35-million in Q4 cash inflow, due to the sale of some B.C. assets.”
The analyst added: “To play a spring rally, we prefer WFG [“sector outperform” and US$90 target] overall, for diversification, capital allocation, B/S health and size/liquidity. Investors with more risk tolerance may consider IFP for maximum lumber torque or WEF for the biggest discount to mid-cycle fair value. We also like CFP for its Vida stake that minimizes U.S. duty exposure vs. the group.”
In other analyst actions:
* Expressing concern about the slow growth of its backlog, Goldman Sachs’ Noah Poponak downgraded Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) to “sell” from “neutral” with a $191 target, up from $184. The average target on the Street is $270.87.
* With changes to Scotia’s precious metals price deck, equity analysts made changes to targets in their coverage universe, while Tanya Jakusconek upgraded Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO-N, ELD-T) to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a US$59 target, up from US$43. The average target is US$47.22.
“The upgrade for EGO is mainly due to the Skouries project entering production in Q1/26. We expect the stock to re-rate as the company moves to operating from development (moving from negative FCF to positive FCF) with the mine adding growth. We have lowered our ratings on RGLD to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform. This downgrade for RGLD is solely on the share price appreciation and expected return to our target price,” the analysts said.
“Top picks also include AEM, AGI, AU, B, DPM, EDV, EGO, HMMC, KGC, KNT, NEM, OGC, OLA, and SSRM in the operators, WPM (best growth outlook) in the streamers, HOC and PAAS for silver-gold exposure, and CNL, MAU, SGD and TAU in the developers.”
* In their precious medals preview, analysts at Canaccord Genuity downgraded three stocks to “hold” from “buy” based on valuation: Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-T) with a $380 target (from $350), Hecla Mining Co. (HL-N) with a US$26.50 target (from US$16) and Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) with a $28 target (from $27). The averages are $336.01, US$17 and $28.40, respectively.
“CG precious metal best ideas: • Senior producers: EDV, BTO; • Intermediate/Junior producers: ORE, GMIN, CG, TXG, ARIS, KNT; • Royalty/streaming companies: RGLD, ELE,” they said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Katie LaChapelle upgraded Sigma Lithium Corp. (SGML-X) to “buy” from “hold” with a $28 target, jumping from $20.50. The average is $23.94.
“[Friday] morning, Sigma Lithium provided a corporate update, highlighting (1) the remobilization of mining on site (2) an additional sale of lithium fines, and (3) a response to recent media reports. We view the update as positive.”
“In our recent report Lithium Q4 preview: raising near-term price deck we downgraded Sigma to HOLD citing concerns around waste pile access and the ability to resume mining. With increased clarity on this key issue, we are upgrading Sigma to BUY from HOLD and taking our NAV multiple back to 1.0 times NAV, from 0.5 times previously. As a result, we are increasing our target price to $28.00, from $20.50 previously, and upgrading to BUY with an implied 37-per-cent return.”
* Ahead of the release of its third-quarter 2026 results on Feb. 4, TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne raised her ATS Corp. (ATS-T) target to $48 from $46 with a “buy” rating. The average is $49.18.
“Investors will clearly be focused on new CEO Doug Wright’s initial commentary to the Street regarding his high-level perception of ATS’ future potential, what attracted him to the role, etc. In fact, a positive outlook from Mr. Wright could outweigh any mild blemishes in ATS’ Q3/F26 results. That said, bookings need to reaccelerate to support revenue/earnings growth in F2027,” he said.
* In response to last week’s release of a preliminary economic assessment for its Kemess project in the Toodoggone District in the northern interior of British Columbia, Desjardins Securities’ Allison Carson hiked her Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T) target to $29 from $21 with a “hold” rating. The average target on the Street is $25.62.
“The PEA beat our expectations mainly due to slightly higher production and lower operating, initial and expansion capital costs. With this update, our NAVPS increased 11 per cent to $57.47 (from $51.68). We have also tweaked our 4Q25 estimates ahead of reporting and increased our NAV multiple to 0.6 times from 0.5 times as Kemess advances; this results in our target increasing,” she said.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Tim Monachello raised his CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) target to $16.50 from $14.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.49.
“We believe CEU’s strong stock performance (up 16 per cent year-to-date and up 54 per cent over the last year) is reflective of justified multiple expansion given CEU’s strong fundamental outlook for growth and margin expansion over the coming years, its track record of outperformance vs industry activity, its robust return profile and EPS growth trajectory, and its consistent returns to shareholder profile and strong FCF conversion. In addition, we believe CEU will likely be added to both the FTSE Global Small Cap index in the March reweighting and the S&P/TSX Dividend Aristocrat index in the January rebalancing, that our channel checks suggest could drive over 7-8 million shares of incremental demand from funds that benchmark against these indices. Overall, we remain constructive on CEU’s ability to drive growth across its increasingly diversified, high-margin, and lower cyclicality business lines (notably in both onshore and offshore production chemicals), and believe it is beneficially exposed to increasing drilling productivity. Tactically, we believe index-related funds flow and indications that management remains committed to share repurchases even given meaningful multiple expansion are likely to support continued upside to its valuation. While CEU is no longer a value stock, we believe it is among the highest quality SMID-Cap energy services stocks in the market and is deserving of a premium valuation relative to peers,” said Mr. Monachello.
* With Friday’s announcement of the completion of sale of its Brazil assets to a subsidiary of the CMOC Group for total consideration of up to US$1.015-billion, Stifel’s Ingrid Rico moved her Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) target to $25 from $24 with a “buy” rating. The average is $22.50.
“Post-sale of Brazil, we see an upgraded portfolio that has removed its highest-cost region and refocuses capital allocation to its value driver assets,” she said. “Canada now accounts for more than 60 per cent of EQX’s total production and approx. 65 per cent of operating NAVPS. Canada is the region that drives near-term growth from two new mines and improving year-over-year total cash costs. With reduced debt, we believe EQX will be in a position to enhance shareholders’ returns (potentially introducing a dividend) as it moves to net cash later this year.”
* In her quarterly earnings preview for base metals companies, Raymond James’ Judith Elliott adjusted her targets for Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) to $36 from $34 with an “outperform” rating and Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) to $27 from $30 with a “market perform” rating. The averages are $31.11 and $28.94, respectively.
“The majority of our copper producers under coverage have pre-reported 4Q25 production (CS, FM, HBM, IVN and LUN) and we expect each of these producers to meet overall guided opex ranges,” she said. “On ERO, we expect the company to report its strongest production quarter of the year; however, we expect it to miss the bottom end of guided Cu/Au ranges. We note that the average gold price was 20 per cent higher quarter-over-quarter which should benefit copper producers with meaningful gold production in the portfolio, namely HBM, ERO and FM.
”A number of our copper producers have released production and/or operating guidance (FM 2026-2028, IVN 2026-2027 and LUN 2026-2028). We highlight guided year-over-year copper production improvement for FM and IVN, and we expect improving y/y copper production for CS, ERO and HBM."
* Acumen Capital’s Nick Corcoran became the first analyst to initiate coverage of Saskatoon-based Pharamacorp RX Inc. (PCRX-X), setting a “buy” rating and 65-cent target.
“Recession-resistant industry with demographic tailwinds. PCRX operates in a recession-resistent industry with favourable demographic tailwinds from population growth, an aging population, and insurance coverage. In addition, regulatory changes have increased pharmacists scope of practice,” he said.