Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Mining equity analysts at Citibank think Anglo American PLC’s takeover of Vancouver-based Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK-B-T) will create a company with “80-per-cent earnings exposure copper where it will be a top-tier player, supported by substantial synergies and operational recovery.”
“Our sum-of-the-parts valuation indicates a £50 per share value for the combined entity – within which we estimate copper alone to be worth over £40/sh, higher than the current AAL share price,“ said the group, led by Ephrem Ravi. “We also deep dive into operational recovery at AAL copper assets which we estimate could be worth another £4.6/sh, near term growth another £2.5/sh and ‘adjacencies JV’s’ another £3.3/sh. Of course, higher prices for copper and iron ore could drive further upside to our valuation. Anglo American is now our top pick among global diversified miners."
Mr. Ravi upgraded his recommendation for Anglo American to “buy” from “neutral” previously, believing the merger “catalyzes significant upside.”
"We upgrade Anglo American (AAL) to Buy with a £45 target price, reflecting a potential 30-per-cent upside.,“ he said. ”The proposed merger with Teck to form AngloTeck is transformative, creating a top-tier copper producer with an 80-per-cent copper earnings exposure. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation of £50 per share highlights significant undervaluation, with the merged entity likely to see a re-rating from its current 6.2 times 2027 EBITDA multiple towards the 9-12 times range for global copper equities."
At the same time, analyst Alexander Hacking also raised his recommendation for Teck to “buy” from a “neutral” recommendation with a $104 target, up from $76 to reflect the terms of the deal. The average target on the Street is $72.46.
“Our base case is that the merger proceeds on current terms and thus maintain equivalent ratings and target prices. The merger not going through is a key risk,” he explained.
In justifying its bullish stance on the pro-forma company, the firm pointed to several operational recovery and organic growth drivers, and emphasized strategic joint ventures should “unlock transformational value.”
“We anticipate value accretion from operational normalization at key assets, potentially adding $1.2 billion in EBITDA,” the analyst said. “Organic growth at Collahuasi and Quellaveco copper assets could contribute an additional $1.4-billion in EBITDA over the next 5-7 years. Furthermore, strategic adjacencies, including the Los Bronces-Andina copper JV and Minas Rio iron ore JV, offer substantial EBITDA potential—we estimate $1.3-billion—enhancing the company’s long-term production profile and cost efficiency.
"We expect the Los Bronces-Andina JV with Codelco to unlock over $5-billion in value through synergies and capital deferral, contributing significantly to AAL’s NPV. The Minas Rio iron ore JV with Vale, integrating the Serpentina deposit, has the potential to double production capacity and reduce unit costs, generating an estimated $4-billion NPV, in our view. These partnerships are crucial for driving volume growth and cost optimization in the medium term."
While National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine says the “negative vibe” on the implications of artificial intelligence on software has reset valuations, he now thinks the correction for companies, like Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T, TRI-Q) has “gone too far.”
“The last time we wrote on TRI with the stock near or sub-$150 was in late fall 2022, a year when the company joined the Rule of 40 crowd and management continued its strong execution of steadily improving top-line growth and margin expansion,” he said. “This helped evolve its peer group and its valuation re-rated above 20 times forward EV/EBITDA. With the AI-theme emerging and being embraced by TRI post-2022, its multiple was above 26 times at its Investor Day on 3/12/24, and would peak at over 31 times last July amid rumours about its imminent inclusion in the NASDAQ-100. Since then, TRI’s multiple contracted to 16 times which it breached at the start of COVID and back in 2018 when it was reducing its exposure to Financial & Risk and producing organic growth of 2.5 per cent and an EBITDA margin ex-items of 30.7 per cent - organic growth in 2025 was to be 7.0-7.5 per cent with a margin of approximately 39 per cent (Big 3 9 per cent & 43 per cent vs. 33 per cent in 2018).
“What happened? ‘Hardware is the new software’ per CNBC, as investors focus on AI-fueled demand for compute, while elevating concerns that AI will trigger reduced headcount at corporations and ‘AI competitors and automation tools could erode demand for traditional software licenses and workflows’.’
Given the correction in the share price of Thomson Reuters as well as its peers, Mr. Shine reset his valuation metrics “and pulled back what had tended to be a valuation looking out beyond a year.” That led him to drop his target to $190 from $300 previously, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $245.74.
“Target’s now based on average of 2026 estimated DCF [discounted cash flow] & 2027 estimated NAV [net asset value] (was 26/27 DCF & 27/28 NAV) with 17.5 times (was 25.5 times) weighted average EBITDA applied to 5 segments (1.35 FX),” he explained. “TRI traded at an average of 16 times post-2009 (undermined by F&R struggles and weaker Professional segment metrics for a majority of this timeframe) and 22 times after 2018. We see peers trading at 10-20 tims consensus 2026E.
“Should TRI trade in the upper half of this range? We think so. It continues to have a solid moat for its Westlaw franchise in Legal, it’s integrating AI capabilities to enhance its strategic competitive positioning, and it doesn’t bill on a per-seat basis. When TRI reports its Q4/25 and updates guidance on 2/5/26, it will need to address AI-related concerns: size/growth of TAM, any impact from start-ups, and changes in buying patterns of clients. We think TRI has over-corrected.”
Citi analyst Ariel Rosa sees the 4.8-per-cent drop in U.S.-listed shares of Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI-N, CNR-T) on Friday in response to “soft” full-year guidance as “a modest overreaction” by investors, while he acknowledged “shares are likely to remain under pressure near-term.”
“CEO Tracy Robinson made the case that the railroad ‘sits atop an incredible natural resource base’, and we continue to see long-term value in CNI as we await EPS re-acceleration, rail M&A, and tariff resolution,” he said in a client note.
On Friday before the bell, CN reported adjusted earnings per share for its fourth quarter of 2025 of $2.08, up 14.5 per cent year-over-year and topping both Mr. Rosa’s $1.99 estimate and the consensus forecast of $1.98. He attributed the beat to “strong Canadian grain crop, solid network efficiency, and a relatively easy year-ago comp.”
“The 4Q beat was driven by both revenue and cost, as stronger-than-expected Grain/Metals/Auto revenue per RTM [revenue ton mile] drove revenue in those verticals above our estimates, partly offset by weaker-than-expected rev. in Intermodal/Coal/Forest Products,” he added. “Adjusted Operating Ratio of 60.1 per cent improved 260 basis points year-over-year and was 100 basis points ahead of our estimate, driven by lower-than-expected D&A on a depreciation study and purchase price allocations (if the $33-million. Year-over-year D&A variance on these were excluded, adjusted OR would have been 60.8 per cent). CN delivered strong operating performance on key metrics, with year-over-year improvement on workforce productivity (GTMs/employee up 14 per cent), locomotive productivity, and fuel efficiency, as well solid network fluidity.
“Management sees opportunity in metals movements within Canada and aluminum to the U.S. on inventory drawdown to partly offset tariffs with continued support from the strong Grain crop. Longer term, CEO Robinson made the case that CN would be the least impacted Class 1 from a potential UP-NS merger, but nevertheless argued that it falls short of the pro-competition test of the STB. Anticipated step-up in FCF on cuts to capex as well as its upsized buyback should support shares medium-term.”
While calling the results “solid,” Mr. Rosa said CN’s full-year 2026 outlook drew concern with volumes “flattish” year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share “only slightly exceeding volume growth.”
“Management noted headwinds from tariffs and trade uncertainty pressuring revenue mix, as well as a higher ’26 tax rate, FX headwinds, and inflationary cost pressures,” he added.
After reducing his 2026 and 2027 adjusted earnings per share estimates to $7.90 and $8.95, respectively, from $8.45 and $9.50 “given macro headwinds,” Mr. Rosa trimmed his target to US$115 from US$119, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is US$114.32.
“Muted investor expectations have created a favorable backdrop for CNI to outperform. CNI benefits from structural network advantages (long-haul lengths and tri-coastal access) which should enable higher incremental margins as the volume environment improves,” he added.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $156 (Canadian) from $160 with a “buy” rating.
“While CN’s guidance was softer than expected, the call highlighted meaningful headwinds heading into 2026, suggesting the weaker outlook reflects more than just simple conservatism after three years of cuts. We were also looking for a more assertive stance on share repurchases. With a $35-million tariff impact in 2025 (above CP’s $200-million), no merger synergies and greater exposure to lumber, metals and intermodal, CN’s network is bearing a higher share of macro pressures,” said Mr. Poirier.
* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to $151 from $153 with an “outperform” rating.
“CN has now strung together two successive earnings beats (with the latest on estimates that were revised higher pre-quarter). While the guidance was muted and some investor concerns (related to F/X headwind, tough H1 comps and discreet 2026 costs), we believe the strong operating momentum and cheap valuation ahead of a potential H2 macro inflection set CN up for a nice share performance trajectory in 2026,” said Mr. Spracklin.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $147 from $150 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We lowered our estimates to better reflect CN’s 2026 outlook and ongoing macro-headwinds. Based on our new 2026 forecast, CN shares are trading at 17.1 times P/E versus its five-year forward average of 21.2 times and the U.S. peer group average of 20.9 times. While the stock’s valuation is inexpensive, muted volume and earnings growth as well as ongoing macro uncertainty inform our neutral view on the stock,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne to $164 from $166 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4/25 EBIT was a 1-2-per-cent beat excluding a one-time dep’n reversal, but 2026 guidance was underwhelming vs. Street expectations. That said, a low bar should set the stage for outperformance/upward guidance revisions. The network is performing very well, commercial intensity has increased, and CN has the opportunity to close a large valuation discount vs. peers if it can rebuild investor confidence,” she said.
* Barclays’ Brandon Oglenski to $135 from $140 with an “equal-weight” rating.
“CN guidance implies below consensus outlook for 2026, but previously hinted at given management’s prior vacating of long-term growth ambitions on the 3Q25 earnings call; long-term opportunity remains, but like many rails, CN needs a stronger industrial economy to cooperate,” he said.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $155 from $163 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“While management is prudently assuming a stable macro/tariff environment, it also called out various headwinds to revenue and costs that largely account for the delta vs. Street expectations. On the flip side, the guidance is based on a slightly more favourable FX assumption than the current spot. However, we believe after three years of guidance cuts, management is taking a more pragmatic approach to outlook this year, which could limit any major downside risk from macro or weather events while there could be some upside risk if the environment gets better. In addition, we think that the valuation is already low enough to absorb any new shocks or to provide solid upward torque in the share price on any macro tailwinds. CNR is now trading at 17.0 times P/E and 4.7-per-cent FCF yield on our 2026E, below its historical averages and peers,” said Mr. Gupta.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $146 from $153 with a “sector perform” rating.
“While operations continue to improve, the outlook reinforces our view that headwinds in global trade and industrial production are likely to limit CN’s ability to deliver EPS growth in-line with peers,” said Mr. Murray.
In a client report released before the bell titled Valuation looks about right but Q4 consensus doesn’t, Canaccord Genuity analyst Yuri Lynk lowered his recommendation for Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) to “hold” from “buy” previously, citing a limited total return to his one-year target price of $81.
“We continue to view Badger as one of the most compelling organic growth stories within our coverage universe as hydrovac excavation remains under-penetrated in the US while the trend towards ‘safe digging’ only strengthens,” he said. “The macro setup continues to be supportive due to growing spending on infrastructure renewal and expansion (transit, civil, and water), electrical grid hardening, power generation, and mission-critical buildings (data centres, manufacturing). Meanwhile, management has been delivering on its growth strategy.
“However, companies don’t grow linearly, and Badger’s declining incremental margin over the last several quarters gives us pause ahead of the Q4/2025 print on March 5. We believe consensus estimates for Q4/2025, and potentially 2026, are ambitious in light of investments management appears to be making in support of the next leg of growth.”
Mr. Lynk’s $81 target for the Calgary-based company’s shares did not change. The average is $80.86.
“Badger trades at 22.1 times our 2026 adjusted EPS estimate versus peers at 23.0 times, and its 10-year average P/E (NTM) multiple of 18.8 times,” he explained. “Badger’s PEG (2026E) is about 0.9, so we don’t see valuation as overly stretched, but the stock arguably has less risk priced-in. We value Badger with a 20 times P/E ratio applied to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate converted into CAD at US$0.72.”
Ahead of the release of its quarterly results on Thursday, RBC Dominion Securities’ Irene Nattel reiterates her view that Saputo Inc.’s (SAP-T) fiscal 2026 is “proving to be a key inflection year on earnings and cash flow as the convergence of internal initiatives and more favourable regional operating backdrops help stabilize the business.”
The analyst is currently projecting earnings per share for its third quarter of 51 cents, up 29 per cent year-over-year but 3 cents below the current consensus on the Street but emphasizing a wide range of estimates reflects challenge of forecasting cadence of recovery outside Canada." Domestically, she says the result is driven by a “steady and solid” performance “underpinned by commercial initiatives/volume growth and mix, pricing should offset modest cost creep.”
South of the border, Ms. Nattel sees a “constructive” outlook despite persistent commodity price volatility.
“Commercial initiatives featuring prominently, underpinning volume growth and
helping to optimize mix, augmented by pricing, efficiencies, cost management, and lower duplicate costs," she said. “Commodity backdrop mixed, with spread negative but cycling peak weakness prior year, and lower cheese prices impacting both operating leverage and inventory realization. With the block temporarily below US$1.30/lb. at the beginning of the year, we remind investors that SAP could revalue quarter-end inventory as it has done in the past, but we expect the market to look beyond transient weakness in cheese prices. Key commodity offset is lower butterfat prices and related tailwind on the dairy foods division.
“International: Forecasting gradual recovery in Australia with production efficiencies from new plant configuration, and an optimized mix offsetting higher milk costs; Argentina stabilizing with volume growth underpinned by better macro backdrop and milk availability, higher export dairy prices, more favourable alignment between inflation and Peso devaluation resulting in lower milk costs.”
Emphasizing buybacks are “picking up,” lending support to her “cash flow inflection thesis,” Ms. Nattel raised her target for Saputo shares by 12 per cent to $47 from $42, keeping an “outperform” rating, based on higher valuation multiples. The average target on the Street is $44.
“As we move past peak capex related to the 2021-25 strategic plan, strong FCF and balance sheet provide ample funding for ongoing return of capital to shareholders: F26 is evolving as a key inflection year on earnings and cash flow as the convergence of internal initiatives and certain regional market factors should help stabilize the business, and on that basis we remain constructive on the outlook,” she explained. “With leverage comfortably below target 2.25 times, SAP is already exercising FCF optionality, including return of capital. Our model incorporates a cumulative buyback of 10 per cent of shares F26-F28, contributing 150 bps to our F25-F28E EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] 19.4 per cent with net debt/adjusted EBITDA stable below 2 times. We view M&A largely on the back burner, would be highly opportunistic and disciplined to ensure alignment with commercial strategy.
“With investment cycle virtually complete and a focus on high-impact dairy categories, financial performance should normalize/improve over F26+. Better utilization rates and disciplined brand focus underpin confidence in long-term
U.S. opportunity, particularly as spreads stabilize and export markets gain traction. The pivot from ‘fixing the base’ to ‘harnessing returns’ further aligns with deployment of the NCIB."
While investors are likely to remain focused on the progress of its integration of Hanesbrands following its acquisition last year, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) to continue to display “solid” earnings per share growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results later this month.
“Our expectations for solid growth in Activewear reflects new programs (plasma print, and benefits from previously launched programs in 2025), favourable product mix, and pricing (took effect Q2/25),” he said. “Prior Hosiery & Underwear softness reflected tighter inventory management and product/program resets (began Q2/25). We expect trends to sequentially improve, reflecting a stabilizing market; as resets are completed, we expect this to also be supportive all else equal.
“Our estimates are adjusted to reflect an earlier than modeled Hanes closing (was Q1/26 end vs. actual close in December 2025). GIL expects Hanes EBIT margin to be in line with Gildan long-term. Near-term, NBCM models 2026 Hanes EBIT margin of 15.7 per cent vs. 22.3 per cent for Gildan. We model Hanes EBIT margin improving to 18.7 per cent in 2027, reflecting benefits from investments in operations, manufacturing optimization and scale. All else equal, a 2027 Hanes EBIT margin in line with Gildan suggests upside of more than $0.50 to our 2027 EPS estimate.”
Mr. Shreedhar is projecting quarterly earnings per share of 93 US cents, matching the consensus estimate on the Street and up from 83 US cent during the same period a year ago. He attributes that 12-per-cent growth to higher sales, which he expects to jump 43.9 per cent year-over-year, as well as higher gross profit and the Hanesbrands acquisition, partly offset by higher SG&A.
“The medium-term fundamental drivers for GIL are organic growth in the Gildan business (2026-2028 outlook calls for mid-single-digit organic net sales growth) as well as growth and margin improvement in Hanes (low-single-digit organic net sales growth; 2026-2028),” he added. “GIL indicated synergies of $200-million (NBCM models $200-million) could be conservative, and drive upside to estimates (incremental $25-million adds $0.10 to our 2026 EPS).”
With that “solid medium-term outlook” and raising his valuation multiple, Mr. Shreedhar moved his target for Gildan shares to US$97 from US$92, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is US$83.68.
In other analyst actions:
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski raised his Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU-N, BBU.UN-T) target by US$1 to US$44 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Phil Hardie to US$40 from US$39 with a “sector outperform” rating, BMO’s Devin Dodge to US$43 from US$42 with an “outperform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to US$43 from US$41 with a “buy” rating.. The average is US$37.61.
" Following an active 2025 where capital recycling initiatives ramped, portfolio companies stabilized, and NCIB continued, BBU enters 2026 with solid momentum. Despite last year’s 50-per-cent-plus increase in the unit price, we continue to see attractive upside as BBU’s NAV compounding growth algorithm continues and units trade at a discount to NAV. We expect the corporate simplification will be a near- term catalyst," said Mr. Dziarski.
* National Bank’s Baltej Sidhu bumped his Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP-N, BEP.UN-T) target to US$34 from US$33 with an “outperform” rating, while Mizuho’s Anthony Crowdell moved his target to US$31 from US$30 with a “neutral” rating. The average is US$34.67.
* National Bank’s Ahmed Abdullah assumed coverage of Cascades Inc. (CAS-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $15 target, up from the firm’s previous $12 target and exceeding the $14.30 average on the Street.
“We view the core thesis as increasingly execution-led under the refreshed leadership agenda: extracting $100-million of run-rate profitability improvements by year-end 2026 via its ‘culture-of-excellence’ initiative and prioritizing deleveraging through lower capex and targeted asset monetization (more than $120-million raised with Richmond B.C. facility sale announced last week), following the heavy Bear Island build cycle,” he said.
“We maintain our Sector perform rating given uncertainty around price hike implementation success and demand recovery that unlocks full operating leverage; at current levels, we view shares as fairly valued and look for a more attractive entry point.
* Mr. Abdullah also assumed coverage of KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $11 target, up from $10 and matching the average.
“We view KP Tissue as a differentiated, income-oriented vehicle providing public-market exposure to Kruger Products (KPL), Canada’s leading tissue manufacturer,” he said. “KP Tissue represents an approximately 12-per-cent economic interest in KPL while Kruger Inc. retains control. The thesis is anchored by (1) the mature, non-discretionary staples nature of tissue supporting resilient cash generation and (2) KPT’s consistent shareholder return is highlighted by a long-standing $0.18/share quarterly dividend that supports a ‘bond proxy’ stance.
“We maintain our Sector perform rating given the control structure and its related limitations on liquidity and strategic optionality for public shareholders. While a re-starting capex cycle (TAD-3) is likely to pressure nearer-term free cash flow with returns skewed later in the decade; our valuation is in line with historical patterns given these offsets.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young raised his Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) target to US$430 from US$400, maintaining a “buy” rating. The average is US$371.75.
“Celesica served up a buffet of beats with Q4 ahead of its guidance, Q1 ahead of consensus, and F26 guidance bumped to above consensus,” said Mr. Young. “We anticipated a more positive initial reaction, which suggests that investor expectations have drifted ahead of consensus. The culprit is likely a large, unexpected increase (nearly 5 times year-over-year) to CapEx balanced against a robust, but ultimately short of expected increase to the F26 guidance (and rough guidance of similar growth in F27). There were other nits in the quarter such as flat HPS revenue QoQ and a QoQ decline in the third largest 10%+ customer, which we believe are related to timing and mix of programs. Management noted its customer demand outlook is above the current guidance and in some cases, extends beyond F26. We would note that Celestica has a long period of guiding conservatively and it also has a long track record of very careful deployment of capital into CapEx or M&A, which suggest that confidence is very high. Management noted that it will remain focused on maximizing ROIC which suggests the focus on margin expansion, working capital optimization, and asset utilization will continue. After the pullback, we argue the valuation is even more attractive given the outlook for continued earnings growth. Given higher visibility into the earnings growth outlook in 2026 and 2027, we remain comfortable with our target multiple after a modest reduction. We remain BUY rated given strong competitive positioning within leading custom ASIC compute and 400/800/1.6T switching tied to AI infrastructure.”
* Mr. Young cut his Docebo Inc. (DCBO-Q, DCBO-T) target to US$40 from US$46 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$34.93.
“Docebo announced a US$60-million substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) Thursday alongside preliminary Q4/25 results and 2026 guidance, underscoring management’s confidence in the company’s valuation, growth outlook, and margin trajectory,” he explained. “The preliminary guidance is light of our current forecast when considering the impact of 365Talents but in line with consensus. The ability to fund a US$30-million outflow for the SIB and a US$55-million outflow for the acquisition suggests that management is confident on near-term cash generation. On the other hand, it also signals a preference to return cash over internal investment in sales resources or R&D, and it increases the control position held by Intercap. At the midpoint of 2026 revenue guidance, the SIB offering price of US$20.40/share implies 1.7 times EV/C2026E sales, which is still at a significant discount to industry peers with a similar growth and EBITDA margin profile. We have raised our estimates to reflect the recent acquisition of 365Talents and the new guidance.”
* Raymond James’ Michael Barth raised his target for Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) to $107 from $106, keeping an “underperform” rating. The average is $113.33.
“We downgraded IMO to Underperform in late-2025, which was purely a valuation call with the stock trading well through our target. We continue to believe that valuation is rich on both an absolute and relative basis with IMO still trading 21 per cent through our target, and trading at the lowest FCF yields in the peer group; on our FY26 estimates, IMO is trading at just a 6.1-per-cent sustaining FCF yield and 5.0-per-cent FCF yield, which means the proportional shareholder return cadence in FY26 should be materially lower than other names in the large cap peer group. In addition, we don’t see any material operational catalysts until a potential EBRT-related FID later this decade, so we see little room for meaningful estimate revisions any time soon. While we like the business (low breakevens, long reserve life, strong balance sheet), we continue to believe that better ideas exist in our coverage universe at these valuations, and therefore reiterate our Underperform rating," said Mr. Barth.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Phil Ker initiated coverage of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA-X) with a “speculative buy” rating and $4.40 target. The average is $3.
“In recent years, Luca’s management and operating team has successfully demonstrated a financial and operational turnaround on the heels of optimization efforts at its Campo Morado operation and commissioning of its second Mexican-based operation, Tahuehueto. With an improving balance sheet and several potential catalysts on the horizon, we anticipate Luca to execute on NAV-accretive projects that will support increasing production and cash flow in the coming years. With a P/NAV metric of 0.32x and a discount to its peer group, we see ample upside for Luca to demonstrate and de-risk operational growth drivers to support a re-rate to trade more in line with its peer group average of 0.55 times,” said Mr. Ker.
* RBC’s Nelson Ng raised his Methanex Corp. (MEOH-Q, MX-T) target to US$55, exceeding the US$52.86 average, from US$50 with an “outperform” rating.
“We have updated our model for Methanex’s February reference prices and a slight tweak to CMA’s (Chemical Markets Analytics) methanol price outlook (down roughly 1 per cent). Despite the modest revision, CMA continues to forecast an upward price trend through 2028 driven by supply constraints and improving demand. We are reiterating our Outperform rating and increasing our PT to $55 (up from $50) as we continue to see strong cash flow generation deleveraging the balance sheet, positioning the company to restart share buybacks in H2/26,” said Mr. Ng.
* In a report titled Nice Rally! We’re Not Chasing It (Past Spring); A Deep Dive Into Why We’re Cautious the Ferts in 2H, Scotia’s Ben Isaacson raised his Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) target to US$70 from US$62 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$68.64.
“We see several reasons to be cautious on the ferts post-spring, although the price/margin starting point for the debate looks higher than previously thought, particularly for N+K. In other words, we’re revising ‘26 higher, but with little enthusiasm to chase stocks past spring. First, merchant ammonia outages are winding down, new export supply is ramping concurrently, and Trinidad hasn’t skipped a beat. Also, China could offer significant urea exports this summer - when global demand is weakest. That said, Iran remains the #1 wildcard, near-term. Second, we’re calling a P stripping margin bottom, as the market balance should tighten when demand recovers/normalizes. This is further supported by downside price risk to ammonia/sulphur. Third, strong K affordability should keep near-term markets tight, but new production in 2H with demand moderation at about the same time, keeps us cautious that prices will soon peak. Finally, we’re cautiously returning MOS to a Buy (P outlook, valuation), while CF moves closer to Sell territory (N outlook, valuation). We think NTR is now fairly valued, where idiosyncratic positive catalysts could be offset by 2H N+K margin compression. Both K+S and YAR look fairly valued, as well,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s David Kwan assumed coverage of Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) with a “hold” rating and US$28 target, down from the firm’s previous US$40 target. The average is US$38.50.
“We believe investor focus remains on signs of organic growth re-acceleration in H2/F26 and updates on the sale of its non-core assets. We believe investors will need to see improved execution before re-gaining conviction, which is why we are maintaining the HOLD rating. Our PT falls to $28 due to lower peer valuations,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay bumped his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to $30 from $24.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $27.
“An US$18.1-million grant from the U.S. government to VNP will support a large increase in domestic germanium refining capacity over the next four years. In our view, it further validates VNP’s status as a crucial participant in the strengthening of supply chains for critical materials outside of China. We like VNP’s proven track record in strategic end markets (eg solar energy, space, healthcare) and this latest endorsement from the defense sector. The defence and U.S. government funding themes support a valuation bump,” said Mr. Tremblay.