Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities’ Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy thinks Imperial Oil Ltd.’s (IMO-T) “strong performance over several years has earned itself a premium valuation, however at current levels we look upon its relative valuation as stretched.”
That led him to lower his rating for the Calgary-based energy large-cap to an “underperform” from “sector perform” on Monday following a “mixed” fourth-quarter 2025 performance.
“Our fundamentally constructive stance towards Imperial Oil reflects its solid leadership team, long-life, low-decline upstream portfolio, cash flow diversification via its refining and chemical segments, strong balance sheet, free cash flow generation, commitment to shareholder returns and solid operating performance,” he said. “That said, the relative outperformance and valuation of IMO’s common shares appears to have disconnected from its fundamentals. We have downgraded Imperial Oil to Underperform given higher expected relative returns elsewhere.”
In justifying his rating revision, Mr. Pardy noted Imperial Oil is now trading at an 2026 estimated debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 12.9 times (versus U.S. giant Exxon Mobil at 11.2 times and his North American major peer group average of 8.6 times). It also has a free cash flow yield of 5 per cent (versus 5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively).
“We believe that IMO should trade in line with our North American major peer group given its fundamentals,” he said.
“Imperial’s announcement to undergo restructuring activities is aimed at annual efficiency gains of about $150 million in 2028+ and will be executed over the course of 2026-27. It will involve headcount reduction but also the transfer of work to global capability centres, with some employees moving to operating areas (including the Strathcona refinery) in 2028. A sale-and-leaseback arrangement has been entered into for its Quarry Park campus into 2028. We are mindful that a reorganization of above-field employees of this magnitude in Canada over the course of the next two years could impact the company’s operating performance, which has been impressive in years past.”
Mr. Pardy maintained his 12-month target for Imperial Oil shares of $116. The average target on the Street is $120.03, according to LSEG data.
Elsehwhere, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof raised his target to $110 from $101 with a “sell” rating.
“While our $110-per-share target price represents a large, negative return, we highlight: 1) that our new target multiple continues to represent the top-end of the peer range (7.5-10 times), 2) significant oil price volatility, largely driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and 3) that our new target price is underpinned by US$62 per barrel of WTI for 2026/2027, which could prove conservative,” said Mr. Hulshof.
“IMO remains a very clean story—a best-in-class balance sheet, fiscal discipline and a strong commitment to returning the majority of FCF (ratable dividend hikes; recently completed its NCIB with potential renewal in June). It is also a stand-out name from an execution perspective with Kearl, Cold Lake (Grand Rapids Ph 1), and downstream performing well. Cost structure improvements (Kearl/Cold Lake opex, for example) could continue to drive its WTI breakeven lower (currently less than US$35 per barrel). Finally, it arguably remains the go-to name for investors looking to play defence amid numerous macro uncertainties, backstopped by integration."
In a separate report released before the bell, Mr. Pardy said he remains a “fan” of Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) “following its strong relative market outperformance over the past 12 months,” however, seeing higher relative returns elsewhere, he downgraded its shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
“Our constructive stance towards the company continues to reflect its capable leadership team, deep resource base, shareholder alignment, solid operating performance, strong balance sheet, organic growth profile and 100-per-cent payout of (thermal) free cash flow to shareholders,” he said.
His rating revision came after a recent meeting with the Calgary-based company’s President and CEO Robert Broen and CFO Matt Taylor ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter and year-end 2025 results on March 6. He called the discussion “candid and explored the company’s expansion progress at Leismer, contemplated 40,000 barrels-per-day Corner (100 per cent wi) development, and egress considerations.
“Priority wise, preserving a strong balance sheet and executing its $300-million Leismer expansion remain top of mind for Athabasca’s leadership team,” he added.
“Our production outlook sits at 38,200 boe/d [barrels of oil equivalent per day] in 2026 rising nearly one-third to 50,250 boe/d in 2027, anchored by capital programs of $311 million in 2026 and $275 million in 2027.”
Based on his 2027 outlook and other factors, Mr. Pardy raised his target for Athabasca shares to $9 from $7. The average target is $7.99.
“Under futures pricing, Athabasca is trading at a premium 2026E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 10.3 times (vs. our North American intermediate E&P peer group avg. of 6.3 times) and free cash flow yield (equity) of 2 per cent (vs. our peer group at 5 per cent),” he said. “In our minds, Athabasca should trade at an above average valuation vis-à-vis our peer group given its capable leadership team, strong balance sheet, favorable operating momentum, free cash flow generation and favorable shareholder returns.”
In a client report titled Plenty of runway left on this precious flightpath, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Bart Dziarski upgraded Sprott Inc. (SII-T) following “strong” Q4/25 results, seeing its valuation “appropriately reflects its growth outlook.”
Moving the Toronto-based global asset manager, which focuses on precious metals and critical materials investments, to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, he said last week’s release highlighted “the operating leverage inherent in the business to constructive commodity pricing compounded by net inflows and a product set that is hitting inflection points on growth and profitability, which we expect will continue into 2026 & beyond.”
“Our biggest takeaway from the quarter was the flywheel effect of products scaling within the business: i) every single fund in Sprott’s ETF line-up is now above its breakeven AUM [assets under management] level implying high incremental margins we view as accretive to Sprott’s mid-80s EBITDA margins in Exchange Listed Products and ii) institutions wait for a certain size threshold before allocating to funds given concentration limits and Sprott is seeing more momentum in this regard (e.g. in its Uranium Trust which has reached $6-billion AUM),” said Mr. Dziarski.
“Q4/25 carried interest of $38-million could give us a glimpse into the potential earnings power of this earnings stream as Sprott’s managed equities team and private lending strategies continue to outperform with constructive commodity markets. While management did not give any guidance on this number, we have increased our performance fees in 2026 and 2027 from $20-million/year to $40-million/year which is equivalent to what SII delivered in Q4/25.”
He hiked his target to $218 from $186 after raising his valuation multiple on “higher earnings estimates to capture operating leverage from higher AUM driven by higher commodity prices and a scaling product portfolio.” The average is currently $197.50.
A group of equity analysts downgraded Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) after its guidance for the next two fiscal years fell short of Street’s projections, sending its shares plummeting 18.4 per cent on Friday.
Those making rating revisions are:
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho to “hold” from “buy” with a $7 target, down from $8.75. The average is $8.83.
“4Q results in line, but the 2026–27 outlook fell short of our expectations, driven by the unexpected EBITDA decline at Certarus (CNG) from pricing pressures and loss of utility contract ancillary revenues,“ said Mr. Ho. ”Hiccups from ambitious Superior Delivers plans kept SPB from fully leveraging a colder winter, while US$260-million pref redemption adds an element of risk to SPB’s deleveraging plans. While we see attractive valuation, patience is required."
“We are moving to a Hold: (1) softer-than-expected FY26 outlooks gives us some pause; (2) no clear visibility on Certarus industry pricing dynamics recovering; (3) setbacks in Superior Delivers and questions surrounding customer churn; and (4) elevated leverage.”
* Scotia’s Ben Isaacson to “sector perform” from “sector outperform” with a $6.50 target, down from $8.50.
“We have downgraded SPB and lowered our PT to $6.50,” he said. “Simply put, the prospect for outperformance has become more elusive, following setbacks to both business lines, capital allocation, and B/S health. First, we cut ‘26/27 forecasts meaningfully, and to line up with SPB’s revised growth rate of 2 per cent through ‘27, vs. 8-per-cent forecast less than a year ago. This moves ‘27E EBITDA to $486-million, vs. the Street’s $515-million and the original $570-million. We have low conviction in our forecast, as we don’t know how low Certarus prices/margins can fall on increased competition (i.e., a cost-to-deliver curve), and this business is very hard to comp. Second, we have cut our target multiple by 0.5x to 6.0x, to acknowledge: (1) a reduction of investor confidence in SPB’s ability to deliver $1.00 to $1.10/sh in out-year or run-rate FCF; (2) a shift in capital allocation strategy, which could see a pause to buybacks; and (3) B/S leverage that could deteriorate further near-term, as SPB considers using debt to redeem pref shares. Together, these pull our PT down to $6.50, and in line with where the stock is trading. Accordingly, we don’t see now as the time to ‘buy the weakness’. We rather move to the sidelines, until Superior Delivers.”
* TD Cowen’s Aaron MacNeil to “hold” from “buy” with a $7 target, down from $8.50.
“There have been too many negative surprises recently and now view our upgrade to Buy at $6.22/share with Q3/25 results as premature. As such, we are moving to HOLD until we see a multi-quarter trend of meeting expectations. The silver lining (if you are looking for one), is that winter-seasonal propane demand has been strong, and we view the updated guidance as achievable,” said Mr. MacNeil.
* Raymond James’ Luke Konschuh to “market perform” from “outperform” with an $8.50 target, down from $9.75.
“While we are comfortable sticking with our base case forecasts and valuation ($8.50/ share) ... if we were to probability weight our base case at 70 per cent, the bear case at 20 per cent, and the worst case at 10 per cent, we’d get a hypothetical probability-weighted target of $7.60/share (17-per-cent upside to the current share price, which isn’t particularly attractive); we suspect this is the calculus investors will run until there is better visibility that those bear and worst case scenarios are no longer plausible. We don’t think the market will get that clarity any time soon, and therefore see better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere in our coverage universe,” he said.
Analysts making target changes include:
* Stifel’s Daryl Young to $9 from $10 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4/25 results were fine (first look), but this was overshadowed by the weak 2026 guidance (approximately 4 per cent below consensus) and deferral of the full $75-million EBITDA benefit under Superior Delivers into 2028,” said Mr. Young. “Heading into 2026, Superior is facing declining organic results at both divisions and leverage will stay higher for longer (expect to finish 2026 at 3.8x). The issues within propane reflect the cascading effects of the new propane delivery system; we continue to think that these issues can be fixed with time, but unfortunately full proof of concept won’t be possible until next winter. At Certarus, the O&G headwinds have been well-telegraphed, but the expiry of an unusually profitable utility agreement in January that was not replaced, is another body blow. On the one hand, this does feel like peak pessimism following Friday’s 20-per-cent share price sell-off, and we expect the stock will gap higher alongside the re-start of the NCIB in coming days.”
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny to $6 from $7 with a “sector perform” rating.
“With further downside risk associated with execution risk / heightened leverage ahead of refinancing the US$260-million of preferred shares, we maintain our Sector Perform rating and recommend investors await a more attractive entry point of below $5/sh,” said Mr. Kenny.
* RBC’s Nelson Ng to $10 from $11 with an “outperform” rating.
“We estimate that management’s updated outlook only reflects a growth rate that is 2 per cent lower than the consensus expectations,” said Mr. Ng. “However, it reflects a large change in management’s ambitious outlook, has a knock-on effect on leverage and capital allocation, and puts management credibility into question. We still see good value in the shares and forecast a FCF yield of 20 per cent in 2026, but we are lowering our PT to $10 (from $11) to reflect our updated financial forecast, weak sentiment and a slower pace of stock buybacks.”
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $8 from $9 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, we view the update as negative given soft 2026 guidance, lowered medium-term guidance and the extension of Superior Delivers benefits to 2028 from 2027. Q4/25 results were largely in line with expectations,” said Mr. Heywood.
Stifel analyst Martin Landry calls Gildan Activewear Inc.’s (GIL-N, GIL-T) release of its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Thursday “one of the most important and most anticipated in recent years for the company.”
“It will mark the first quarter post the closing of the HanesBrands acquisition and should include financial guidance for 2026,” he explained. “Gildan’s commentary on (1) the progress made integrating HBI, (2) the pace of synergy realization and (3) the revenue trajectory of Hanesbrands will go a long way in influencing the performance of the shares.
“Investors will seek details on integration plans, asset disposals and consolidation of manufacturing production.”
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Landry increased his fourth-quarter forecast to include one month of contribution from its US$2.2-billion takeover of HanesBrands Inc., which he sees adding an additional US$222-million to sales during the period. His EBITDA estimate increased by US$30-million to US$267-million, falling in-line with the consensus estimate of $26- million, while his earnings per share projection rose by 2 US cents to 96 US cents, exceeding the Street by a penny.
Conversely, he reduced his full-year 2026 EPS estimate by 17 cents, or 4 US per cent, to reflect a more conservative revenue profile for HanesBrands and explaining his forecast incorporates “a reasonable degree of conservatism, visibility remains limited given the scale of the HBI transaction.”
“Our model calls for 2026 EPS to reach $4.55, up 29 per cent year-over-year, and slightly higher than consensus of $4.52,” he added. “We model an accretion of 14 per cent on our 2026 EPS estimate from the acquisition of Hanesbrands, which is arguably conservative. However, our visibility is limited on (1) HBI’s revenue trajectory, (2) the impact, if any, of the conversion from U.S. GAAP to IFRS, (3) the purchase price allocation and asset revaluation and the impact on depreciation expenses.
“Synergies expectations for 2026. Recall that management expects to realize $50-million in synergies in 2026, rising to a cumulative $150-million in 2027 and to exceed a cumulative $200-million by 2028. We have modeled $50 million in synergies realized in 2026. Investors will pay close attention to the tone of the comments on the pace of synergy realization. No surprises or delays will be well received. Discussion on the transfer of production into Gildan’s facilities could be well received. Discussion on HBI’s shelf placement at mass retail for 2026 will be interesting.”
Also seeking further insights on HanesBrands’s revenue trajectory as well as Gildan’s legacy business, Mr. Landry raised his target for Gildan shares to US$80 from US$75, keeping a “buy” rating, after rolling forward his valuation. The average target on the Street is US$80.65, according to LSEG data.
“Gildan’s 2028 outlook calls for a 3-year EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] in the low 20 per cent, which is double the historical growth rate of 10 per cent in the last 10-years,” he said. “As a result, we believe that Gildan’s valuation could re-rate higher as investors are likely to assess higher valuation multiples due to the faster growth profile. At 14 times forward earnings (PEG ratio of 0.7 times), we believe that Gildan’s shares do not properly reflect the company’s growth prospect.”
TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst predicts investors will see “more moderate” same-store sales growth for Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) when it reports its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Wednesday, pointing to the grocer’s “high promo spend” a year ago, but he says it’s no cause for concern.
“Favourable positioning, store growth, solid execution, and tight cost management are all helping Loblaw gain share and deliver consistent EPS growth, despite new distribution centre/store headwinds,” he said. “It is doing so while acting rationally; SSSG is expected to slow in Q4 (tough comps, promo investments normalize), but we still see L achieving the upper end of its financial framework (8-10-per-cent EPS growth) in Q4 and 2026.”
However, Mr. Van Aelst does expect double-digit earnings per share growth on a same-week basis. He’s forecasting consolidated adjusted earnings per share of 65 cents, matching the Street’s expectation and up 10 cents from the same period in fiscal 2024.
“Year-over-year comparability of the Q4 results will be affected by: 1) the extra week; and, 2) PC Financial results being reclassified as discontinued operations, and results from the remaining businesses that were in the Financial Services segment are reclassified into the Retail segment (we will adjust our forecasts with the new segmentation post Q4 results),” he added. “On a consolidated, same-week basis, we see 10.5-per-cent EPS growth, similar to the 10.7 per cent seen year-to-date.
“Lightest Food SSSG of the year should not be concerning. We expect Food SSSG of 1.5 per cent (vs. 2.5 per cent year-to-date), reflecting a combination of: 1) lighter promo activity — L did not repeat the aggressive promo investments adopted in late-2024 to win back market share lost during the Q2/24 boycott of its banners; and 2) greater consumer trade-down to lower-costs products in the face of another step-up in food inflation — retail food CPI increased to 4.4 per cent in L’s Q4 (from 3.6 per cent in Q3) though we expect true basket inflation to be meaningfully lower for all grocers this quarter. We see SSSG re-accelerating to 2.5 per cent starting in Q1/26, as L laps."
Expecting few surprises from the company’s guidance for the current fiscal year, seeing its EPS forecast to fall within its 8-10-per-cent framework in a same-week basis, Mr. Van Aelst hiked his target for Loblaw shares to $75 from $65, keeping a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $69.58, according to LSEG data.
“Investors are placing a greater value on consistent, predictable growth, pushing valuation to new highs of 25.9 times consensus NTM [next 12-month] EPS [e.g., DOL (Buy, $192.15)/WMT (Buy, US$121.78)/COST (Buy,US$983.85) now trade at 36 times/42 times/47 times],” he said. “Without a negative catalyst — in fact, positive catalysts persist amidst higher food inflation (supporting consumers’ search for value) and impending generic GLP1s (driving L’s pharmacy sales/traffic) — we would struggle to downgrade on valuation alone. That said, we see greater potential returns in ATD (Buy, $84.06) and MRU (Buy, $98.02)."
Elsewhere, BMO’s Étienne Ricard raised his target to $68 from $63 with a “market perform” rating.
“Heading into Q4/25 reporting, Loblaw appears well-positioned to deliver on its full-year low-double-digit EPS growth outlook supported by 5-per-cent-plus organic topline growth, 2-per-cent-plus operating leverage benefits and 3-per-cent share repurchases. Within our Consumer coverage, Loblaw offers one of the best visibility into mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, which we believe is well-reflected in the stock’s premium valuation,” said Mr. Ricard.
While he thinks Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T) displayed “solid execution buoyed by improving commodity sentiment” in its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev cautions “it remains difficult to argue for a fundamentals-driven rally given the current supply/demand setup” despite geopolitical tensions around Iran presenting the possibility of “an upward inflection in WTI.”
“SES remains well run amid improving commodity sentiment that is attracting fund flow; with shares re-basing to a new level and in line to the Street’s 2026E projections, we believe at this juncture, risk/reward for the shares is balanced,” he added.
Shares of the Calgary-based waste management and energy infrastructure company rose 3.9 per cent on Friday after it reported net revenues of $372-million, narrowly below the Street’s expectation of $378-million and Mr. Sytchev’s $382-million estimate. However, it was a gain of 10 per cent year-over-year, which he attributed to the contributions of a recently acquired Edmonton-based recycling facility, increased scrap shipment volumes to the U.S., and the commissioning of the first of two water disposal facilities in the Montney region.
Adjusted EBITDA of $135-million topped forecasts ($134-million and $132-million, respectively), which displayed contributions from ongoing cost optimization initiatives and positive price realization across core operations. Earnings per share of 24 cents matched the consensus but beat Mr. Sychev’s projection by 5 cents.
“Conference call takeaways - scrap metal normalization underway but H2/26 activity is a key swing factor 1) Metals negative EBITDA impact estimated at 10–15 per cent in 2025; normalization expected by mid-2026E; 2) H1/26E to look similar to H2/25 based on drilling/completions dynamics being relatively unchanged entering 2026E, while customer budgets remain locked for the time being; 3) Lower growth CapEx for 2026E is a product of heavier growth CapEx investments in 2025,” said Mr. Sytchev.
Keeping his “sector perform” rating for Secure shares, he raised his target to $21 from $19. The average is $20.13.
“Looking forward, we are reflecting management’s view of lower CapEx intensity but adjust our D&A expectations upwards to reflect the larger asset base,” said Mr. Sytchev. “We expect low-single-digit volume growth through our forecast period, as we remain cautious on clients’ CapEx plans given a soft WTI backdrop and general macro weakness, though revenue growth should be supplemented by ongoing price increases at or above the rate of internal cost inflation.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $21 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We maintain our SP rating while slightly raising our target to $21 (was $20) as our EBITDA and FCF outlook has improved based on guidance. Q4 was largely as expected except for discretionary FCF, which beat expectations and guidance due to lower taxes. EBITDA guidance came in slightly ahead of us (met consensus). However, growth capex outlook was lower than expected, due partly to a pull-forward in December. Management is positive on 2026 despite an uncertain macro / commodity price environment, given ongoing production growth (drives 80 per cent of EBITDA), returns from capital deployment, and recovery in metals recycling. That said, SES expects 1H/26 to be relatively similar to 2H/25, reflecting customer plans,” said Mr. Gupta.
* BMO’s John Gibson to $20 with a “market perform” rating.
“SES’ Q4/25 results were in-line with expectations, as strength in the company’s metal recycling segment offset some softness in waste processing. The business continues to show stability, with 80 per cent of EBITDA tied to stable, production-backed volumes and only 20 per cent exposed to more volatile exploration activity, which faced commodity headwinds in 2025. Post quarter, we increase our target price to $20 ($19 prior) on the potential for commodity-driven activity upside, though we keep our Market Perform rating given the company’s valuation,” said Mr. Gibson.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $23 from $21 with a “sector perform” rating.
“2026 EBITDA guidance of $52-million-$550-million (ATBe: $532-million | consensus $535-million) captures volume growth through 2026 (largely an H2/26 story) and a recovery metals recycling activity following a rerouting strategy to the US. Capital allocation plans have shifted slightly given the 5-per-cent dividend increase and management talking to opportunity for additional growth in the future, which we think reflects management’s confidence in the underlying business and resilience of cash flows. Share repurchases will remain part of the story but are expected to be more discretionary and less regular than recent years. Management also continues to flag potential tuck-in M&A as part of its growth outlook, which is not currently captured in the 2026 capex guidance or annual EBITDA outlook,” said Mr. Heywood.
* RBC’s Arthur Nagorny to $21 from $18 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Q4 results came in largely as expected and although the midpoint of the 2026 Adj. EBITDA guide was in line with consensus heading into the quarter, we ultimately view it as a conservative starting point (potential upside from improving WTI backdrop + Metals business recovery + incremental growth capex + M&A),” said Mr. Nagorny.
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies to $26 from $23.50 with a “buy” rating.
“Our thesis on this stock is that the company’s attractive financial profile (20-per-cent EPS CAGR, low-double-digits ROIC [return on invested capital], 41-per-cent EBITDA-FCF conversion and self funded growth) will drive a material re-rate, especially in an environment where businesses that cannot be disintermediated by AI will be in higher demand,” said Mr. Gillies.
Citi analyst Spiro Dounis thinks Keyera Corp.’s (KEY-T) balance sheet capacity is being “underappreciated” by investors following the integration of Plains American Pipelines LLP’s Canadian NGL business.
Last June, the Calgary-based energy infrastructure company announced the acquisition, along with some U.S. assets, for $5.15-billion.
“We believe KEY has the ability to reinvest over $1.20-billion annually without breaching 3.0-times leverage after 2027, more than twice as much as the current annual growth capital spending cadence,” he added. “We estimate that level of reinvestment supports 8-per-cent annual EBITDA growth, the fastest among Canadian peers. KEY may not be able to invest all that capital annually in organic growth, thus we expect KEY seek out bolt-on M&A and potentially pursue share buybacks - two options that should be more accretive than simply paying down debt to inefficient capital structure levels.”
Reiterating his “buy” recommendation for Keyera shares, Mr. Dounis raised his target to $58 from $51. The average is currently $53.75.
“At 10.8 times 2027 estimated EBITDA, KEY is trading above historical average levels of 10.4 times; however, the accelerated growth compresses the multiple to less than 9.0 times by 2030,” he said.
“We expect impending capital efficient EBITDA growth. Importantly, capital deployed over the last several years underwrites this organic growth with limited spending from here to achieve growth targets. Accordingly, we expect KEY to generate excess FCF that can be used to repurchase shares, increase its dividend at an accelerated rate, or reinvest in growth – a stark contrast from several years of a cash flow deficit. The Canadian NGL asset acquisition materially increases KEY’s scale, brings in new customers, enhances the C3 offering, and adds market access to the east. KEY’s valuation spread and capital efficient growth outlook create a compelling valuation offering, in our view.”
In other analyst actions:
* In response to the release of a preliminary economic assessment for its Camino Rojo project, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Richard Gray upgraded Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $35 target, rising from $25 and above the $30.50 average.
“We are increasing the value we ascribe to the Camino Rojo underground to $2.8-billion, which is based on the NPV5% at $4,500/oz, from the previous value of $389-million, which was based on an in-situ value of $85/oz and the resource of 4.58 MMoz. The result is an increase in our NAV to $29.50 (from $21.00),” said Mr. Gray. “While there is some technical risk with this project, the inclusion of the Camino Rojo underground adds significant value to the Orla story and provides a longer-term growth asset in a familiar jurisdiction.”
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod increased his Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) target to $163, exceeding the $151.17 average, from $160 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our Jan/26 web traffic, app, and in-store analysis takeaways are positive. Web traffic growth remained strong (up 19 per cent year-over-year); both Canada (up 5 per cent) and the U.S. (up 32 per cent) were solid, with growth moderating slightly post-holiday quarter-over-quarter. App data shows continued strong engagement and Bloomberg Second Measure data show Jan/26 U.S. in-storesales were very strong (up 70 per cent). While trends can fluctuate q/q, the data indicate ongoing strong sales momentum. We continue to believe Aritzia remains wellpositioned to execute on its significant U.S. growth opportunity, reflecting its growing brand affinity and Everyday Luxury positioning,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Kyle Stanley lowered his Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust (BEI.UN-T) target to $78 from $79 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Michael Markidis to $76 from $77 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Mario Saric to $75.50 from $78 with a “sector perform” rating, National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $81 from $82.50 with an “outperform” rating and Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $82 from $83 with a “strong buy” rating. The average on the Street is $84.
“Seasonal weakness has weighed on leasing demand through the winter months, with the growth outlook hinging on a spring rebound,” said Mr. Stanley. “We reduced our SP NOI [same-property net operating income] growth forecast to 2.5 per cent (from 4.5 per cent) in response, which drove a 1-per-cent reduction in our 2026 FFOPU [funds from operations per unit] outlook. Notwithstanding a slower 3-per-cent earnings growth profile, the 3 times P/FFO discount vs LTA offers downside protection.”
* RBC’s Pammi Bir increased his target for units of CT REIT (CRT.UN-T) target to $18 to $17 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $17.25.
“On the back of in-line Q4 results, no significant changes to our outlook. In the face of slower economic traction and heightened macro uncertainty, we expect CRT’s fully-occupied, CTC-anchored portfolio to deliver steady organic growth. Though new investment announcements were muted in Q4, 2025 marked a strong year of CTC-related investment activity. As well, we expect deal flow to pick-up in the year ahead as the REIT leverages its parental ties. All said, its premium relative valuation remains well-supported,” he said.
* Mr. Bir raised his Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN-T) target by $1 to $15 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $15.09.
“Notwithstanding persistent macro volatility and trade policy clouds, DIR’s operating metrics have gained traction with velocity set to carry through 2026. Indeed, we expect organic growth to continue printing at a solid 5-6 per cent, outpacing broader sector levels. As well, the new CPPIB JV should yield multiple benefits, including validating its asset values while creating a new complementary channel for growth,” said Mr. Bir.
* Mr. Bir bumped his RioCan REIT (REI.UN-T) target by $1 to $22 with an “outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Brad Sturges increased his target to $21.75 from $21.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $21.58.
“On the back of largely in line results, we continue to see an attractive spot to build positions in REI,” said Mr. Bir. “In the midst of a leasing ‘supercycle’, we expect organic growth to print at solid levels supported by resilient demand, a substantial gap between in-place and market rents, and minimal new supply. The capital repatriation program is also making encouraging progress, with multiple accretive redeployment options. In short, as REI simplifies the business, we see a roadmap to more durable growth and multiple expansion.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar bumped his Dream Office REIT (D.UN-T) target to $19 from $18.50 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Mario Saric to $19.50 from $18.25 with a “sector perform” rating and National Bank’s Matt Kornack to $19.50 from $20 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $22.76.
“4Q results demonstrated what we believe appears to be the early innings of a recovery in D’s office portfolio, and management’s tone around the leasing environment was noticeably more optimistic. While the mid-point of 2026 guidance implies a 7-per-cent FFOPU decline, we view this target as being achievable based on the assumptions outlined. D remains our preferred Canadian office REIT; however, we remain on the sidelines until we have a greater degree of confidence in a resumption of earnings growth,” he said.
* Mr. Kalmar increased his target for Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) to $26 from $24, which is the average on the Street, with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $26 from $24.50 with a “buy” rating, Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to $25 from $24 with a “sector outperform” rating, BMO’s Tom Callaghan to $25 from $22 with an “outperform” rating and ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Sairam Srinivas to $25 from $23 with an “outperform” rating.
“SIA beat Street expectations once again in 4Q, while continuing to advance its acquisition, redevelopment and optimization programs. With same-property retirement occupancy stabilized, we see additional upside through rent growth/margin expansion, the stabilization of its growth/optimization portfolios, as well as continued execution on the LTC redevelopment front. Our revised forecast calls for 19 per cent (from 14 per cent) AFFOPS [adjusted funds from operations per share] growth in 2026, which ranks at the top of our REIT coverage universe,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Jeff Fenwick raised his Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) to $2,600 from $2,500 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $2,885.37.
“Q4 was another quarter of impressive underwriting results, with an added tailwind from elevated investment gains. Diluted EPS of $57.57 was well ahead of our $37.55, with ROE at 19 per cent. BVPS [book value per share] of $1,260 topped our $1,237, up 19 per cent year-over-year. Looking forward, we expect FFH’s strong fundamentals to continue, but growth has clearly slowed, resulting from the continued softening of global P&C markets,” said Mr. Fenwick.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Stefan Ioannou raised his Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) target to $37.50 from $26 with an “outperform” rating, while Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw cut his target to $35.50 from $37 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $38.26.
“Q4/25A CFPS of US$0.85 (US$337-million) beat analyst consensus at US$0.74 and our US$0.82 estimate,” said Mr. Ioannou. “The strong (record financial) performance, on the back of previously released production results, largely reflects higher-than-expected realized copper pricing. This year’s H2-weighted outlook stands to set the stage for a strong production profile going forward, further bolstered by significant organic growth potential—namely Hudbay’s advanced-stage Copper World project in Arizona.”
* After introducing his 2027 estimates National Bank’s Nathan Po raised his Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL-T) target to $45, above the $43 average, from $40.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“Given the nascent nature of the GLP-1 vertical, we do not incorporate a significant ramp-up in associated youtheory revenue over our forecast window, opting instead to tilt growth above the midpoint of management guidance for 10-20 per cent. For 2027e, relative to consensus (n=2), we sit above the current average by 2 per cent on revenue and EBITDA, placing us at Street high but in line with management’s long-term guidance,” said Mr. Po.
* TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison raised his Lundin Mining Corp. (LUN-T) target to $45 from $42, exceeding the $33.83 average, with a “buy” rating.
“LUN continues to deliver strong performance, ending 2025 with yet another beat supported by strong free cash flow, continued shareholder returns, and a net cash position,” said Mr. Hutchison. “Guidance for 2026 remains unchanged, and we look forward to a potential sanction decision for Vicuña along with an updated Chapada technical report.”
* After a call with CFO Mark Thompson following its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, RBC’s Andrew Wong raised his Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) target to US$80 from US$75 with an “outperform” rating. The average is US$70.62.
" We expect continued operational improvement driving steady organic Retail growth, improved costs and cash conversion, and consistent growth in FCF/sh. We see further upside in shares with an attractive upside/downside profile and strong defensive commodity exposure," said Mr. Wong.
* RBC’s Bart Dziarski reduced his Onex Corp. (ONEX-T) target to $133 from $139, which is the average, with a “sector perform” rating.
“Onex has completed the first step of its strategic pivot with the closing of Convex acquisition in February 2026,” said Mr. Dziarski. “Over the medium-term, we believe Onex will continue shifting the balance sheet adding 1-2 more businesses where Onex believes it can add value, which could include a higher percentage mix toward insurance operations given the company’s familiarity with the sector. Lowering our target to C$133 (from C$139) and maintain Sector Perform rating as we don’t see any near-term catalysts to drive a re-rating higher in the shares.”
* TD Cowen’s Derick Ma lowered his OR Royalties Inc. (OR-T) target to $64 from $67 with a “hold” rating. The average is $68.08.
“We have updated our estimates to reflect the royalty portfolio acquisition, the deferred obligations payments from Galiano, Q4/25 financials, asset updates, and the 2026/long-term guidance,” said Mr. Ma. “Our NAVPS estimate is 2 pee cent higher, 2026 EBITDA declined 15 per cent, and 2026 EPS estimates declined 18 per cent.”
* Citi’s Ariel Rosa increased his TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) target to a Street high of US$143 from US$131, exceeding the US$124.97 average, with a “buy” rating.
“We hosted CFO David Saperstein for a fireside chat at our annual Industrials Conference last Thursday, where he noted conservatism in the guide as 1Q profits are over-indexed to March and it lost $5-6-million in revenue on Jan./Feb. weather with higher overtime labor costs,” said Mr. Rosa. “He sees earnings upside ahead given portfolio additions since the prior peak and a lower share count on stepped-up buybacks. The 4Q beat was on technology advancements, including the implementation of Optym software that helped reduce costs by improving billing accuracy, driving fewer missed pickups, and enhancing efficiencies in on-time pickup and delivery.”
* National Bank’s Adam Shine, who is the lone analyst covering TVA Group Inc. (TVA.B-T), raised his target to $1 from 75 cents with a “sector perform” rating.
“While TVA reverted to net cash due to retroactive adjustments, challenges persist, and it’s not clear how cash will get used or what happens with TVA Sports after H1/26,” he said.