Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While acknowledging the immediate share price reaction to Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL-T) “may not show it,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Maurice Choy thinks its fourth-quarter 2025 results “delivered elements that investors who have been on the sidelines have been looking for.”
“These elements center on Pembina’s successes on the commercial front (which help improve the perceived competitiveness of its integrated value chain) and on delivering growth via incremental project FIDs,” he explained. “There remain favourable announcements ahead relating to additional project sanctionings, the delivery of ongoing developments, and the upcoming multi-year growth rate update on April 7, with these helping to firm up the investment case for Pembina’s stock.”
Shares of the Calgary-based company closed down 0.4 per cent on Friday after it reported largely in-line quarterly results with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.075-billion, falling narrowly under Mr. Choy’s $1.086-billion estimate and the consensus forecast of $1.087-billion due largely related to lower-than-expected Marketing & New Ventures results. Adjusted funds from operations of $1.26 was 4 cents under the analyst’s projection for the same reason.
However, Mr. Choy thinks Pembina is “keeping the momentum going” and is “adding more points to the board, with more to come.”
“Following a period of relatively unfavourable investor sentiment relating to Pembina’s stock, we like that the last few quarters have seen a return of positive headlines at the company,” he said in a client report. “These headlines largely relate to the company’s tangible evidence that: (1) it has competitively secured volumes across its integrated value chain, with the long-term agreements signed with Tourmaline Oil across major facilities offering the latest proof point; (2) it is moving forward growth projects that are underpinned by customer demand and robust commercial structures; and (3) its ongoing development projects continue to advance on time and on budget (if not trending under budget).”
“While in line with market expectations, we are pleased to see the FIDs on the $310 million Birch-to-Taylor NEBC expansion and the initial scope of the Taylor-to-Gordondale expansion for $115-million. Together with the $200-million Fox Creek-to-Namao Peace expansion, Pembina has now recently sanctioned more than $600-million of conventional pipeline projects in response to anticipated volume growth in the WCSB. In the coming months, investors should expect Pembina to potentially move ahead with the Greenlight Electricity Centre (FID in Q2/26) and infrastructure projects to support its ethane supply agreement with Dow (FID this year).”
Raising his forecast based on the results and management’s “slightly higher” Marketing outlook for 2026 as well as the sanctioning of new pipeline projects, Mr. Choy increased his target for Pembina shares to $64 from $62, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $59.99, according to LSEG data.
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $64 from $61 with an “outperform” rating.
“PPL shares traded off a modest 0.4 per cent during the session following its Q4/25 release and conference call. Q4/25 results were largely in line with expectations and the update was complemented with the sanctioning of two new conventional pipeline projects. The update included optimism for the broader macro environment with egress development supporting growth for crude, natural gas and NGLs. Management plans to provide a comp,” he said.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his target to $61 from $60 with an “outperform” rating.
“Overall, based on the accretion to our long-term estimates from the sanctioned conventional pipeline projects, our target taps up $1 to $61. Combined with 15-per-cent unrisked upside from the company’s unsecured backlog ahead of outlining its updated longer-term growth expectations on April 7th, we reiterate our Outperform rating with the name still trading at a 0.5-times discount to its 10-year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.7 times,” said Mr. Kenny.
Citing “impressive” wireless metrics and free cash flow, Canaccord Genuity analyst Aravinda Galappatthige upgraded Quebecor Corp. (QBR.B-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously.
“QBR reported notable strength in Q4/25, with wireless leading the way,” he said. “We were impressed with the dominant loading numbers alongside a faster and greater-than-expected improvement in pricing (ARPU). With cable also showing good stability, strong FCF and a steep dividend hike, we are upgrading the stock to BUY. Although we only downgraded to Hold as recently as last month, we believe QBR is shifting to a growth trajectory much faster than expected.”
His target for Quebecor shares rose to $60 from $51.25. The average is $59.14.
“Our target price increases $8.75/share as we tune up our estimates to reflect the better fundamentals in wireless as well as improving sub trends and profitability in cable. We have rolled forward to 2027e, further augmenting the target price increase. We continue to value cable at 6.25 times. We use 8.0 times for Videotron wireless and 10 times for Freedom given our growth projections. With the dividend increase and the sharper-than-expected strengthening in wireless, we return to a BUY rating,” he added.
While acknowledging the presence of “some puts and takes” in the outlook for AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (ATRL-T), National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev recommends to investors “the dip should be bought” and reaffirmed his “positive thesis” on the stock.
“The conference call was underpinned by a positive tone, especially around nuclear comments in 2027 that do not account for any potential new build wins in Ontario or Poland,” he said. “Given the primacy of CANDU tech for large-scale reactors and entrenched supply chain that also differs from other technologies - as it uses heavy water and unenriched uranium - we believe odds of ATRL getting the nod in Canada are better than good. M&A messaging was reiterated, creating another use for capital for an under-levered balance sheet (focus on AUS, U.S., water, defense).
“FCF is getting better as well, in line with our projections in 2026E and getting closer to the previously published targets of net income to FCF conversion (more than 80 per cent). While we acknowledged that the outlook for both 2026E and 2027E had some question marks in them, while LSTK losses were indeed bigger than expected, [a decline on Friday] should be bought as 37-per-cent NAV exposure to nuclear makes the name a ‘safe’ choice within the engineering cohort.”
Shares of the Montreal-based firm, formerly known as SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., fell 1.6 per cent on Friday despite reporting consolidated for its fourth-quarter of fiscal 2025 of $2.934-billion, a gain of 13 per cent year-over-year and above both Mr. Sytchev’s $2.826-billion estimate and the consensus forecast of $2.933-billion. While consolidated EBITDA fell under expectations “due to more pronounced (than expected) losses in the LSTK [ lump-sum turnkey] vertical due to revised estimate cost,” adjusted earnings per share of $1 was higher than anticipated (97 cents and 98 cents, respectively).
Following the company’s post-release conference call with analysts, Mr. Sytchev emphasized the presence of “solid visibility for organic core business growth” with the expectation that M&A activity is likely to pick up. He also sees artificial intelligence as a “net positive for the business model.”
“While Middle East spending reshuffling and U.S. state funding hesitancy amid political uncertainty weighed on organic growth, management is confident in achieving the 5-7-per-cent organic growth target for this year (of course, easy comps help here),” he said. “This is supported by strong backlog growth across all four geographic regions, with embedded margins also supporting this year’s targeted 70 basis points year-over-year expansion (midpoint of guidance), as well as more disciplined project selection, cost optimization and improved delivery.
“Nuclear business provides a long expansion runway. The updated $2.6-billion to $3.0-billion 2027 revenue target for the segment is likewise a very realistic goal, as it is based on firm commitments already in the backlog. Potential new build commitments in Ontario (where a firm commitment could be announced this year) and Eastern Europe would be incremental (and very material) and supportive of longer-term growth (the revenue ramp-up is gradual, with most revenues for the Cernavoda new build expected post-2027).”
After adjusting his estimates to align with the company’s guidance, which he said was “marginally massaged” for 2027, Mr. Sytchev raised his target to $113 from $110, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $120.19.
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman to $106 from $112 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“The main incremental in the quarter was higher LSTK losses, which in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal: 2026 cash flow guidance of negative $100-million to negative $150-million equates to negative $0.60/share to negative $0.90/share, pre-tax,” said Mr. Goldman. “Engineering Services results/guidance were in-line with expectations. Organic growth guidance of 5 per cent to 7 per cent is consistent with peers. While ATRL is lapping easier comps, book-to-bill suggests upside in Canada (1.21 times) and UKI (1.16 times). AMEA could be soft (0.91 times), but call commentary was encouraging around Transportation, Expo, World Cup, and property and buildings opportunities in UAE. Margin expansion also continues to keep pace with peers (up 70 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint).”
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Chris Murray to $122 from $121 with an “outperform” rating.
“Engineering Services (ES) and nuclear both reported strong organic growth in Q4/25, with the margin profile for ATRL Services trending higher. ATRL issued 2026 guidance calling for mid-single-digit organic growth and margin expansion in ES, and high-single-digit growth in Nuclear. Management was upbeat on ES-based demand conditions and hiked its 2027 Nuclear revenue target by ~20.0 per cent, with an expanding opportunity set providing further upside. We expect ATRL to be increasingly active around M&A and its buyback program in 2026, given its net cash position and the resetting of valuation multiples across the sector. We see compelling value in ATRL at current levels and would remain buyers,” he said.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan to $121 from $123 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q4 results reflected an improvement in Engineering Services organic trends and margin expansion, as well as continued standout performance in Nuclear. With a record backlog exiting Q4, we believe AtkinsRéalis is well-positioned for an acceleration in Engineering Services in 2026,” said Mr. Khan.
* TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme to $127 from $125 with a “buy” rating.
“Q4/25 adj. PS&PM EBITDA missed consensus, but ex-LSTK adj. EBIT ATRL Services beat slightly. ATRL expects ESR organic growth to reaccelerate in 2026 and remains confident in CANDU new-build opportunities, with a nuclear reactor tech decision for potential projects in Ontario expected in H2/26, which we view as a key potential near-term catalyst for multiple re-rating. ATRL remains our top pick,” said Mr. Tupholme.
TD Cowen analyst John Shao thinks the conference call that following Docebo Inc.’s (DCBO-Q, DCBO-T) fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release on Friday “provided a stable outlook,” leading him to predict a “stabilizing” of its stock and “investor sentiment to turn though continued execution.
“Traction in its AI-first strategy alongside rising wins in Enterprise and Federal remain key growth driver,” said Mr. Shao, believing the Toronto-based educational technology company comments on its “balance sheet, defensibility against AI disruptions, and normalized ARR growth should abate near-term concerns.”
Nasdaq-listed shares of Docebo slid 3 per cent on Friday after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the quarter of 45 cents, up 60.8 per cent year-over-year and above both Mr. Shao’s 38-cent estimate and the Street’s projection of 36 cents. It also introduced 2026 guidance of revenue growth of 10.8 per cent year-over-year (at the mid-point) and EBITDA margin of 19.9 per cent, both falling in-line with expectations.
“Starting with AI disruptions, apart from software companies’ common response such as data moat and hard-to-replicate products, one interesting angle comes from Docebo’s Enterprise and Government segments, both of which are considered primary growth drivers,” the analyst said. “The stringent data security and confidentiality of these segments turn out to protect Docebo from any potential AI disruptions. Additionally, with an ACV [average contract value] of $67k, we generally do not believe Docebo accounts for a significant portion of customer IT budget, undermining the cost savings argument for any AI threats.
“AI monetization remains in early innings. During a callback with the management, we were informed that AI monetization might not be a meaningful growth driver until F2027. On the proposed “AI credit” monetization, lots of moving parts at this point with bifurcated customer feedback. While a full AI credit model is unlikely to happen anytime soon, the current hybrid model (per-seat pricing plus AI credit) might be considered a safe alternative. Yet the company did acknowledge the situation was fast-moving and datapoints were limited.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for Docebo shares, Mr. Shao cut his target to $28 from $37 to reflect “recent weakness in the stock including pressure seen across the broader SaaS sector.” The average target is currently $34.04.
“We rate Docebo a Buy given the company’s momentum in the enterprise segment, a successful land-and-expand strategy, and a large government opportunity following FedRAMP certification,” he said. “We believe KPIs will continue to trend positively, which will drive both top-line growth and continued operating leverage, where EBITDA margin could reach 20 per cent for 2026.”
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Gavin Fairweather to $35 from $43 with an “outperform” rating.
“Docebo’s Q4 and C26 guides were relatively uneventful given the January pre-release. However, bookings trends and commentary on the call reaffirm our view that underlying sales momentum is strengthening, while we also see tailwinds building from 365Talents cross-sell and improved Government traction. Lastly, we suspect Docebo’s AI product execution is set to improve its competitiveness vs. midmarket and enterprise incumbents. With the stock trading at 1.8 times calendar 2026 ARR, 9.0 times C26 EBITDA, 7.3 times C27 EBITDA and a 12.6-per-cent FCF yield on C27, we see material upside as revenue growth accelerates into double-digits and margins push more than 20 per cent in H2,” he said.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Robert Young to US$36 from US$40 with a “buy” rating.
“Given 10-12-per-cent top-line growth and 20-per-cent FCF margins, DCBO shares are in a valuation purgatory where it is too profitable to be a burn story but not growing fast enough to be a growth story. Although we argue that Docebo has been at the front of the wave in AI learning, the market continues to put risk on software amid growing fears that AI will erode demand for traditional SaaS platforms. As such, we have reduced our target multiple to 3.5 times, from 4.0 times. The key reason to be positive on Docebo is the discount valuation and potential for recovery in top-line growth from current levels driven by 365Talents cross-sell, enterprise pipeline conversion, and FedRAMP. In our target calculation, instead of using the current share count in the sidebar, we assume 100-per-cent take-up of the SIB and base target valuation on the prospective cash and share count post the acquisition of 365Talents and funding of SIB,” said Mr. Young.
* Stifel’s Suthan Sukumar cut his target to US$28 from US$34 with a “buy” rating.
“While Docebo faces compounding headwinds this year from the AWS contract roll-off and ongoing Dayforce churn, the underlying business appears much healthier than headline metrics reveal. Broad-based bookings strength amidst sustained momentum in enterprise and government segments keeps us constructive around further market share gains and better revenue growth with stronger operating leverage ahead. Management reiterated expectations for ARR to re-accelerate looking out to 2027, though this will take time to show as underlying strength needs to offset headwinds over the course of the year,” said Mr. Sukumar.
* Scotia’s Kevin Krishnaratne to US$25 from US$32 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We look forward to better Enterprise trends as FY26 progresses, helped by management’s AI-first approach to building a broader Workforce Readiness Platform that leverages the company’s core LMS together with its recent acquisition of 365Talents. Our positive view on DCBO is unchanged with core metrics trending in the right direction and management indicating no signs of headwinds related to recent AI disruption fears, though this remains an area we will continue to monitor. Near-term, we expect the shares likely stay rangebound, with organic subscription growth expected to trend lower quarter-over-quarter (from 9.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent per our estimates) ahead of a reacceleration in 2H. With the stock now trading at 1.3 times CY27 sales there should also be support, with management indicating it will continue to buy back shares even after the completion of its SIB,” he said.
After closing the books on 2025 “on a high note,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Pammi Bir said he expects Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN-T) to log another “standout” year, featuring “robust organic growth supported by operational gains, accelerating demand, and rising market rents.”
“The sweet spot, locked in - frame it how you want, CSH is there,” he said in a client report titled In the zone.
“Minimal new supply through 2028 should translate to an extended period of momentum in fundamentals. Our estimates took another step up, reaffirming CSH’s sector-best earnings growth. Combined with disciplined balance sheet management, an attractive price/pound of growth, and insulation from AI- related fears, we see upside in valuation.”
Units of the Mississauga-based REIT, which the country’s largest operator in the seniors living sector, closed up 1.1 per cent on Friday after it reported same-property net operating income grew 16.9 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter (and 18.4 per cent thus far in 2026) with all regions logging double-digits increases.
“Accelerating demographic driven demand, muted new supply, improved sales/marketing, and stronger employee retention (agency staffing costs down 57 per cent year-over-year) have collectively fuelled impressive strides. Though Q1/26 will likely see a seasonal drop, CSH expects to maintain average same-property-occupancy at 95 per cent for the year. Combined with 4-per-cent rent growth (inflation-plus on existing residents, mid/high single-digits on turnover, partly offset by incentives), we see organic NOI growth in the high-single/low-double-digits in 2026. And let’s not forget, attractive NOI upside remains in the balance of the portfolio (38 per cent of suites) where occupancy sits at 91 per cent.
“Likely another year of active deal flow ahead. CSH closed $577-million of acquisitions in Q4 ($340K/suite), with 2025 total completed/announced at $1.7-billion (approx. high-5-per-cent cap rate). More deals are under review, with CSH reiterating its $2-billion target for acquisitions/developments from 2026-2028. Capital recycling should provide a partial source of funds ($1-billion non-core dispositions over next three years), while the ATM [at-the-market] will likely also remain active as CSH capitalizes on its improved cost of equity. All said, we expect net investment activity to drive upside in earnings and portfolio quality.”
After raising his 2026 and 2026 estimates, expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13 per cent from 2025 though 2027 (versus 8 per cent from Canadian peers and 11 per cent from U.S. providers, Mr. Bir increased his target for Chartwell unis to $26 from $22, reaffirming an “outperform” rating. The average is $19.
“Though absolute valuation may seem elevated, CSH’s price/pound of growth (i.e., 2026E P/AFFO over 2-year AFFO [adjusted funds from operations] CAGR) ranks among the lowest in our universe,” he said. “It’s also trading below its CDN (22-per-cent P/NAV) and U.S. (46 per cent) counterparts. In short, we see a good entry to a name that’s executing well with multi- year tailwinds at its back, compelling growth, and a strong balance sheet.”
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Sairam Srinivas to $25.50 from $25 with an “outperform” rating.
“We like CSH as a pure-play exposure to the retirement thematic. CSH is trading at 20 times 2026 AFFO which is above its long-term average of 17 times. US pure-plays albeit much bigger and with a bit more diversity in offering trade north of 25 times,” he said.
Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $24 from $22.50 with a “buy” rating.
“Fundamentals for seniors housing properties in Canada remain extremely robust, and with limited new supply being delivered and only increasing demand, operating income should continue to grow through our forecast period. For Q4/25, Chartwell Retirement Residences (Chartwell) achieved funds from operations (FFO) per diluted unit of $0.26, up 25 per cent year-over-year, just ahead of consensus of $0.25, and in-line with Canaccord’s forecast. Same-property NOI remains the key driver of growth, and was up 16.9 per cent in the quarter, or $0.04 per unit. While rental rates have risen, most of the growth was from improved occupancy as same-property occupancy reached 94.7 per cent at year-end 2025, up 430 basis points,” said Mr. Rothschild.
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $26 from $23 with a “buy” rating.
“4Q results were ahead of expectations and drove upward revisions to our forecast,” said Mr. Kalmar. “We see upside to management’s 2026 operational targets and expect CSH to remain active on the portfolio optimization front, with both new acquisitions and development announcements. While some investors may question how much more runway this story has, our view remains that we are still in the early innings of what should be a multi-year period of peer-leading earnings growth, including 18-per-cent FFOPU growth in 2026.”
* BMO’s Tom Callaghan to $25 from $22 with an “outperform” rating.
“While stock performance has been strong, we see further runway ahead, particularly given the multi-year durability in seniors housing S/D fundamentals,” said Mr. Callaghan.
* Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to $26 from $25 with an “outperform” rating.
“Despite the price move year-to-date, CSH has one of the lowest PEG ratios, and highest AFFOPU growth in our coverage,” said Mr. Gupta. “To that extent, 11-per-cent premium to NAV looks reasonable, especially in the context of embedded growth and relative to U.S. peers.”
* TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to $28 (Street high) from $24 with a “buy” rating.
“Chartwell continues to execute well in an environment of strong fundamentals,” said Mr. Kelcher. “Post quarter, our estimates, NAV, and price target all increase. We now forecast a 20-per-cent AFFO/unit CAGR [compound annual growth rate] (24A-27E), which is top among North American peers as we expect recent acquisitions to start to contribute more to FFO growth.”
RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich is “more constructive” on shares of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) following its Investor Day event on Thursday, pointing to " higher confidence in growth of the business and shareholder friendly capital allocation."
“We found management’s commentary around capital allocation and shareholder return incrementally positive,” he explained. “The company announced a return of buybacks for the first time since 4Q23 and expects to repurchase $500-million in ’26. And in the out years excess free cash flow will be deployed towards repurchases which likely ramps over time. From a TSR perspective, the company noted ‘26 could be 13 per cent with 4 per cent coming from dividends, 1 per cent from buybacks, and 8-per-cent-plus AOI growth, with room for upside in out years. As the company comes out of an investment cycle primarily in BK US, capex was guided to $300-million in ’28 from $400-million in ’26/’27. Of the $300-million, $150-million will be deployed in TH development/renovations, $50-million for company owned remodels, $50-million for corporate technology & supply chain, and $50-million for other investments. And management doesn’t anticipate the need to ramp capex to support growth long-term, which we found encouraging.
“Dividend payout ratio target was updated to 60 per cent from 50-60 per cent. In terms of leverage, the company is targeting low-mid 3-times range from 3-5 times previously which they expect to achieve through earnings growth and won’t require incremental debt repayments. Further, improving to investment grade rating is a goal which could provide QSR with lower credit spreads (historically 150 basis points delta between high yield and IG), access to bigger pools of capital, and opportunity to extend maturities. Lastly, M&A is currently not a priority.”
In a client note released before the bell on Monday, Mr. Reich pointed to eight key “highlights” coming from the presentations: " The company’s long-term growth algorithm was reiterated. 2) The company is returning to share buybacks with $500m in ’26 and will likely ramp over time as excess FCF will be allocated towards repurchases. 3) Management articulated the path back to 5 per cent net unit growth with majority of the improvement coming from BK China and Firehouse ramping materially. Further, dividend payout ratio target is now 60 per cent from 50-60 per cent previously. 4) BK U.S. commentary was positive where 97 per cent of franchisees voted to maintain the elevated ad fund contribution through 2027 and Sizzle remodel AUVs were $2.2-million in year 1 on average, 33.5 per cent above ’25’s system average. 5) Capex stepping down to $300-million in ’28 from $400-million in ’26/’27. 6) Leverage target now low-mid 3 times range from 3-5 times with goal of being investment grade. 7) BK refranchising will accelerate in ’27 with RH segment sunsetting at 300-500 units in ’27, with long-term target of 300 company owned BKs. 8) PLK comps were guided to positive territory in 2H26. 9) Higher confidence in BK China unit growth given $350-million capital and head of business is former KFC China."
After raising his 2026 earnings expectations while lowering his 2027 top-line and profitability estimates on refranchising, the analyst increased his target to US$83 from US$80, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is US$78.68.
“We roll out our estimates to FY28 given management’s updated targets,” he added. “We raise FY26 revenue slightly where we had previously mismodeled RH intersegment eliminations. We also tweak SSS higher for the year as we think the Popeyes will comp positive in 2H26 and correspondingly raise Q3 segment SSS by 100 bps. EPS comes up 40 bps to account for the company’s new $500m share buyback program. For FY27, our total revenue estimate is 4.3 per cent lower as the company refranchises Restaurant Holdings restaurants, lowering the segment’s contribution to company sales. As a result, AOI and EPS are 2.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent lower, partially offset by lower cost of sales given the refranchisings. We also lower our total unit growth estimate slightly by 33 basis points.”
Elsewhere, Stifel’s Chris O`Cull upgraded Restaurant Brands to “buy” from “hold” and hiked his target to US$90 from US$68.
“Following the company’s investor day presentations, we have gained stronger conviction in management’s ability to simplify the business model and achieve its long-term algorithm of 8-per-cent AOI growth,” he said. “While we previously argued the stock would trade at a “complexity discount” relative to highly-franchised QSR peers (e.g., MCD, YUM), we expect this valuation gap to disappear over the next 12-18 months. Moreover, we believe Burger King U.S. is at an inflection point for improved SRS performance, supported by initiatives to recapture its fair share of family traffic and the rollout of technology to enhance employee performance. [We reaffirm] our continued confidence in the growth outlooks for the International and Tim Hortons segments. Finally, we view the current capital allocation and deleveraging roadmap as a disciplined shift that will also support the valuation multiple."
In a client report released Monday titled Bootstrap to Build: Mispriced Mexican Growth Could Benefit Non Consensus Thinking, Stifel analyst Cole McGill argues “painting risk with a wide brush provides mispriced opportunities,” emphasizing “recent volatility (and violence) in Mexico is targeted and situational.”
“Mexico is a large and varied country and perceived contagion risk provides pockets of opportunities,” he said. “Acknowledging the unrest following last week’s events in Jalisco – we note many companies have resumed normal operations and think community relations, stakeholder engagement and strong relationships are key in navigating uncertainty and assessing risk."
Mr. McGill initiated coverage of three companies seeing “risk/reward slanted to the upside for junior precious metal producers via i) deleveraging, ii) financing/ constructing meaningful growth projects with competitive capital intensities and strong IRRs and iii) mine life extension opportunities.”
He recommends these companies:
* AXO Copper Corp. (AXO-X) with a “buy” rating and $2 target.
Analyst: “AXO’s San Antonio Project [Sonora, MX] represents a capital efficient, quick to cash flow vehicle capable of catapulting AXO to producer status (40kozpa at less than $1,450/oz AISC) as early as 2028. We see the higher grade, lower strip, low capital intensity (less than $1,300/oz pa) oxide resource able to largely organically fund the scalable sulphide resource, with a pathway to more than 100kozpa [thousand ounces per annum], where comparable growth profiles traditionally trade 0.50 times P/NAV (AXO current 0.29 times). Key risks include receipt of federal environmental permit.”
* GoGold Resources Inc. (GGD-T) with a “buy” rating and $5.25 target. $4.75.
Analyst: “GGD’s Parral Project [Chihuahua, MX] is a proven, steady state operation, and a significant FCF contributor ($60-million pa @ spot) to minimizing forward dilution for the portfolio ‘prize’ in Los Ricos [Jalisco, MX] - an asset that we think can benefit GGD equity holders from significant multiple expansion towards production. With Parral operatorship lowering LRN execution risk, we see a pathway to 10MMoz AgEq by 2029 (500-per-cent growth), where comparable production profiles traditionally trade 1.20 times P/NAV (GGD current 0.59 times). Key risks include receipt of federal environmental permit.”
* Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA-X) with a “buy” rating and $4 target. Average: $3.
Analyst: “LUCA Mining trades at a discount to peers, and we see a forward rerating of the stock as the company continues to leverage internal cash flows to optimize and expand the current portfolio. Near term we see a rerating driven by increased cash generation, which derisks longer term growth we think the market is discounting. Catalyzed by metallurgical optimization via the Campo Morado [Durango, MX] Expansion, we see an internally funded, organic 25-per-cent three year production CAGR, elevating the company’s profile. Key risks include cost stabilization at Tahuehueto, and metallurgical optimization at Campo Morado.”
In other analyst actions:
* Seeing investments in its Structures & Logistics (S&L) segment “paying off,” National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his target for Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T) to $57 from $54 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $69.
“With expectations of continued headline growth at its S&L business in conjunction with its upsized capital program through 2030, our target moves up $3 to $57 and is based on a risk-adjusted dividend yield of 4.00 per cent (unchanged) applied to our 2027e dividend of $2.14/sh, an 11.00 times multiple (was 11.25 times) of our 2027e Free-EBITDA and our DCF/sh valuation of $57.50 (was $55.25),” said Mr. Kenny.
* Ventum Financial’s Robin Kozar resumed coverage of Atex Resources Inc. (ATX-X) with a “buy” rating and $5.50 target, exceeding the $5.13 average.
“The combination of exploration success, scale, optionality, and exceptional financial backing is what makes Atex such a compelling investment. The story does not end here. The Valeriano project itself holds the potential to anchor a new copper district. The stock trades at a 65-per-cent discount to our NAV, and our one-year price target of $5.50 implies 27-per-cent upside from current levels. We believe higher targets are achievable as this story unfolds,” he said.
* Ahead of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release on Wednesday, RBC’s Irene Nattel increased her target for Canada Packers Inc. (CPKR-T) to $20 from $18 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $19.50.
“Normalizing commodity backdrop/spreads in Q4 suggests performance more consistent with the economics of the business than was the case with Q3/25, which was boosted by vertically integrated spread about double the long-term average,” said Ms. Nattel. “Commodity volatility notwithstanding, we reiterate our view of CPKR as a high-quality business with strong FCF/conversion, capital-light opportunity to close a capacity utilization gap, and with the $0.23 quarterly dividend, a relatively attractive yield of 4.8 per cent.”
* Barclays’ Brian Morton raised his target on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) to $141 from $137 with an “overweight” rating. The average is $150.76.
“Results again exceeded consensus, driven by better-than-expected fee income as well as NII, though also higher expenses, while PCLs were relatively inline. CM generated positive operating leverage for the 10th consecutive quarter resulting in an above target ROE of 17.4 per cent,” he said.
* Scotia Capital’s Jonathan Goldman increased his Cascades Inc. (CAS-T) target to $16.75 from $16 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $15.50.
“CAS shares are worth more today than they were yesterday – if only because management upsized its asset divestiture target by $100 million to $230 million by the end of 2026,” he said. “Investors may have missed this detail as it was not included in the press release. We see high probability the company hits the revised target as it has already generated $120-million from asset sales, surpassing the original target of $80-million set out in 2Q25. The Tissue miss was disappointing – and while the company has accumulated limited goodwill with investors, this issue truly was not in the company’s control, owing to external switchgear failure on utility company equipment. Unfortunately, it detracted from the great profitability improvement story. Recall the company is targeting $100-million improvement to annualized run-rate EBITDA by the end of 2026. It achieved $10-million in 3Q, and another $20-million in 4Q. Put that together with existing/planned asset divestitures, and you’re looking at $260-million value creation, or more than 20 per cent of CAS’s market cap.”
* Mr. Goldman raised his Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) target by $1 to $99, above the $96.49 average, with a “sector outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Michael Tupholme raised his target to $107 from $97 with a “buy” rating.
“We remain buyers post-4Q results,” said Mr. Goldman. “The company is trading off volumes for margin in Ties such that share loss should be EBITDA neutral. There are four Class 1 contracts up for renewal this year. Downside is limited, in our view, given Class 1s don’t want to be single-sourced, and there is a limit to how much share Koppers can actually take, given high market concentration: we believe SJ has 50-per-cent share while KOP has 35-40 per cent. Also, commentary on the commercial market was positive, which could backfill lower contract volume. Legacy Pole volumes inflected in 4Q (finally) and momentum has carried into 2026. The announcement of a new steel lattice greenfield in the U.S. underscores the positive outlook in T&D while incremental revenue contribution is not yet reflected in 2026–2028 targets.”
* National Bank’s Alex Terentiew trimmed his Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T) target to $28 from $29 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $19.20.
“After slightly increasing our near-term cost forecasts for Terronera and making minor adjustments to timing of settlements on Endeavour’s gold hedges, our 2026 EBITDA estimate is down 1 per cent, and we have trimmed our target to C$28 (from C$29),” he explained. 2026 guidance was pre-released and remains unchanged.
“We continue to view Endeavour Silver as our Top Pick within the silver coverage universe due to its continued discounted valuation (P/NAV of 1.37 times vs peers at 1.83 times and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 8.2 times vs peers at 9.6 times) and expected transition to a state of strong, positive FCF through the ramp-up of Terronera and increasing contribution from Kolpa. We look forward to costs at Terronera declining as the mine approaches steady-state and Kolpa expanding towards its targeted 2,500tpd [tonnes per day] rate in 2026. Resource updates at Terronera, Kolpa and a FS at Pitarrilla are also likely to be catalysts in 2026.
* National Bank’s Giuliano Thornhill increased his Street-high Extendicare Inc. (EXE-T) target to $31 from $29 with an “outperform” rating, while ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Kyle McPhee raised his target to $35 from $30 with an “outperform” rating.. The average is $24.
“EXE’s HHC [Home Health Care] segment once again beat our and Street expectations, performing beyond seasonality levels as demographics strain hospital capacity. Rising ALC cases and growing LTC wait lists continue to burden Canada’s healthcare system. ALC/acute care beds costing $750-$1,000/day versus $100-$125/day for regulated HHC and $200/day for LTC have significant financial implications. These structural drivers may take years to resolve, which EXE directly benefits from,” said Mr. Thornhill.
* RBC’s Ryland Conrad reduced his Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) target by US$1 to US$78, below the US$80.61 average, with an “outperform” rating, while Scotia’s John Zamparo raised his target to US$74 from US$72 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“While 2026 guidance was mixed versus expectations due in part to a trade-off of short-term capacity tightness for accelerated synergy capture, adjusted EPS was in line and the 2026-2028 outlook (including the more than 20-per-cent EPS CAGR) was reiterated. Following estimate revisions to reflect updated guidance and HanesBrands Australia shifting to discontinued operations, our price target decreases,” said Mr. Conrad.
* RBC’s Pammi Bir hiked his Granite REIT (GRT.UN-T) target to $100 from $90 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $98.20.
“On the back of a strong Q4 finish, our confidence in Granite continues to rise. In the face of turbulent macro conditions, a U.S. trade war, and normalizing industrial fundamentals, GRT has managed to deliver solid operating advances. From our lens, the progress speaks to strong execution and the quality of its assets, as management has found ways to succeed through less-than-ideal conditions. With good momentum carrying into 2026, a solid growth profile, and plenty of financial flexibility, we see levers to support a stronger valuation,” said Mr. Bir,
* National Bank’s Nathan Po trimmed his Jamieson Wellness Inc. (JWEL-T) target to $43.50 from $45 with an “outperform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Derek Lessard raised his target to $48 from $46 with a “buy” rating. The average is $44.75.
" We reiterate our Outperform rating as JWEL operates in the resilient VMS category and continues to deliver on ambitious growth plans, while navigating the current tariff regime and consumer uncertainty,"