Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) to display “accelerating momentum” when it releases financial results for the first quarter of its fiscal 2027 on July 9.
He’s currently projecting earnings per share of 87 cents, a penny less than the Street’s forecast but a steep jump from 42 cents during the same period a year ago. He attributes that 108-per-cent year-over-year gain largely to “strong and accelerating” same-store sales growth, which he sees jumping to 30.0 per cent (versus the 30.8 per cent consensus), up from 19.3 per cent in fiscal 2026. He also points to the impact of 16 net new store openings over the past 12 new months as well as gross margin expansion (2.75 per cent) and a lower tax rate.
“NBCCM models an acceleration in sssg (Q4/F26 was 27.7 per cent), supported by our data for Canada, and data from Bloomberg for the U.S,” said Mr. Shreedhar in a client note. “We believe that ATZ continues to gain market share in North America. We continue to expect benefits to eCommerce revenue from ongoing website enhancements, benefits from the new app and the new international eCommerce platform. Recall, ATZ expects Q1/F27 gross margin to improve by 225-275 basis points year-over-year and the SG&A rate by 50-100 bps year-over-year; we expect gross margin improvements from fixed cost leverage and IMU improvements, partly offset by 200 basis points headwind from tariff impacts.
“Our review of apparel retailer commentary suggests a possible tailwind to margins from lower tariffs than the IEEPA regime, at least until July 24, 2026, partly offset by expectations of higher freight costs (and in some cases, higher marketing/promotions).”
Reaffirming his bullish thesis for the Vancouver-based clothing retailer, Mr. Shreedhar increased his target for its shares to $175 from $171, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $177.25, according to LSEG data.
“ATZ’s strength is its superior store productivity (highest amongst our apparel group), supported by its brand promise and disciplined inventory control (primarily stocked with proven sellers),” he explained. “We believe that ATZ’s premium valuation is justified given its superior long-term operating performance, and opportunity for accelerated growth (sales and margins).”
The market backdrop for Canadian mortgage lenders is “stabilizing but risk remains elevated,” according to National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn.
“We are beginning to see some stabilization in housing activity as affordability improves,” he said. “Growth in the residential mortgage market has slowed versus its historical mid-single-digit pace, reflecting weaker transaction activity following the pandemic-era boom. While 275 basis points of BoC rate cuts and lower home prices have improved affordability, we remain cautious given still-elevated mortgage rates, affordability above long-term averages and slowing population growth. For the MICs, multi-family and commercial fundamentals are mixed, with office bottoming, multi-family NOI stabilizing, but rents, occupancy and condo presales still under pressure.
“Credit performance is mixed: Consumer credit conditions remain mixed as higher debt service costs continue to flow through, though resilient employment has helped avoid a more severe credit cycle. Mortgage delinquencies have increased as unemployment has softened, but remain below pre-pandemic levels, supporting our view that credit losses can stabilize if unemployment remains below 7 per cent through 2027. That said, risks are elevated as non-mortgage delinquencies are rising among mortgage holders, and MIEs have seen faster deterioration. This divergence is reflected in our our coverage, AI and FC’s greater GTA and multi-family exposure has driven higher impaired loans.”
Also emphasizing the regulatory climate is “favourable as regulation shifts from containing leverage toward improving affordability and supporting housing supply,” Mr. Gloyn initiated coverage of four companies in the industry on Monday.
"While all four are exposed to Canadian real estate, their business models differ," he said. “AI and FC are traditional mortgage investment corporations (“MICs”) that drive returns and dividends to shareholders through the mortgage portfolio. MKP maintains MIC tax treatment, but is regulated by OSFI and is an NHA MBS issuer allowing for funding through deposits and securitization vehicles. DLCG is a mortgage brokerage platform and a financial technology company that provides an integrated end-to-end operating platform to automate and streamline the entire mortgage process with earnings driven primarily by funded mortgage volumes."
Mr. Gloyn’s ratings and targets are:
* Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp. (AI-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $12 target. The average target is $13.17.
Analyst: “We have a favourable view of AI’s underwriting discipline, portfolio composition, track record and the stock yields an attractive 8 per cent for income seeking investors. While the credit outlook is manageable in our view, we see a more balanced risk reward given AI’s greater exposure to commercial and construction, as well as large portion of loans in stage 2 and 3.”
* Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. (FC-T) with an “outperform” rating and $12 target. The average is $13.
Analyst: “FC offers an attractive 8-per-cent yield and should benefit from a more stable real estate backdrop with improving credit conditions. That said, we believe the risk/reward is balanced given the company’s higher credit sensitivity vs peers, high construction exposure, and the high portion of loans in Stage 2 and Stage 3.”
* MCAN Mortgage Corp. (MKP-T) with an “outperform” rating and $27 target. The average is $25.33.
Analyst: “MKP is our preferred name among the lenders. Our view reflects MKP’s differentiated model that provides a structural funding advantage and higher quality return profile versus peers. Further, we believe MKP is better positioned in an adverse credit scenario.”
* Dominion Lending Centres Inc. (DLCG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $11 target. The average is $11.50.
Analyst: “We have a favourable view of the mortgage broker franchise model given: i) exposure to recovery in mortgage volumes / housing markets, ii) the strong operating leverage through the largely fixed cost base, and iii) limited exposure to credit risk. Further, we see a favourable growth outlook given the runway for broker channel share gains over the long term and the Canadian mortgage renewal cycle in 2026 and 2027.”
Mr. Gloyn added: “These initiations are complimentary to our existing coverage of Timbercreek Financial (TF: TSX, Sector Perform, $7 Target). Our more favourable view of DLCG and MKP reflect i) differentiated business models, ii) larger upside in a recovering real estate backdrop, and iii) lower downside risk in a less favourable credit scenario.”
RBC Dominion Securities’ Andrew Wong came away from recent investor meetings with Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) “more positive on uranium price direction, with the company highlighting strong interest from sovereign buyers and larger utilities, and confirming contract settlements at prices materially above the reported term prices.”
“Recent contracting activity reflects $70-80/$150-160/lb for market-related floors/ ceilings and $100/lb fixed-price term, which compare very favourably to the $85/lb spot and $93-95/lb term levels reported by UxC/TradeTech,” he said. “The company also noted major tech companies are interested in securing long- term uranium supply and have multiple term sheets exploring potential purchases. On uranium S&D outlook, Cameco sees continued demand growth with potential for a boost in coming years as new reactor projects look to secure initial reactor loads while new supply needed to address a looming deficit faces execution risks. We raise our uranium price forecasts by 10 per cent, with our long-term price rising to $110/lb, from $100/lb.”
Cameco sees big opportunities in Washington’s $17.5-billion loan package for new U.S. reactors
The equity analyst is also “encouraged” by recent U.S. and Canadian government policy initiatives that he sees as “supportive for deployment of the Westinghouse AP1000 large nuclear reactor design.”
“We see the Westinghouse AP1000 as the most technically viable, construction-ready large reactor design for a global nuclear build-out, with Cameco seeing 60+ potential projects in consideration. In the US, negotiations with the US DoC to deploy $80B for AP1000 builds remains ongoing and were complemented last week by the US DoE announcing a new $17.5B loan program to support early- procurement of long lead items for 10 reactors (see note ). In Canada, a new Nuclear Energy Policy was announced last week that we view as supportive for deploying the AP1000 both domestically and internationally. Additionally, Poland and Bulgaria could move to FID on announced AP1000 projects within the next 12-18 months. Cameco sees current Westinghouse capacity able to handle 2-4 construction starts annually, with potentially 20 concurrent builds at one time.”
Also seeing its current nuclear operations “running well,” Mr. Wong raised his 2028 earnings expectations, leading him to increase his target to $175 from $160 with an “outperform” rating (unchanged). The average is $173.39.
“Overall, we continue to see Cameco as best-positioned to benefit from strong nuclear growth momentum and a constructive uranium price outlook,” he said.
Despite seeing Quebecor Inc.’s (QBR.B-T) valuation “approaching peak levels,” TD Cowen analyst Vince Valentini thinks “this premium growth story seems to have no flaws, so we do not want to change our buy rating.”
In a note released before the bell, he made narrow adjustments to his second-quarter forecast, trimming his estimate for wireless subscription additions to 55,000 from 60,000, . That is a decline year-over-year, however he thinks it is “still a strong quarter amidst near zero population growth in Canada)” and offset by a slightly higher average revenue per user growth.
“Perhaps more important than EBITDA, we expect another strong quarter for service revenue growth in both wireless (up 9.6 per cent year-over-year) and internet (up 3.8 per cent year-over-year, which would be even better than 3.2 per cent posted in Q1/26),” he added. “Pricing discipline in wireline/internet in Quebec has been particularly encouraging in the last few months, and in May/June we saw much better pricing discipline in the national wireless market than we saw in February/March. We believe these trends all bode well for future revenue/EBITDA/FCF growth.”
After also introducing his projections for 2028, Mr. Valentini hiked his target for Quebecor shares to $78 from $69 with his “buy” rating. The average is $64.55.
“Quebecor continues to effectively manage both capex and FCF as it expands both revenue and EBITDA as a result of its acquisition of Freedom. In time, we are confident that QBR will accentuate Freedom’s quality with additional marketing initiatives, as opposed to relying on pricing. Meanwhile, Quebecor can continue to expand through a potential MVNO offering, its Fizz wireless brand, and bundling opportunities. In other countries, we have seen the newer entrant and faster growing wireless carrier trade at a meaningful premium to incumbents (notably T-Mobile in the U.S.), consistent with what we are currently seeing with Quebecor. However, the cable segment is growing at a much slower rate, which was never an issue for TMobile, and it still accounts for more than half of telecom segment EBITDA.”
RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle thinks Canadian airline and aerospace companies are continuing face an “evolving demand backdrop,” however he sees sees “strong signals across leading indicators” during the second quarter.
“Travel indexes remain solid signalling stable consumer travel demand, although Canadian Airfare CPI turned negative, something we will be keeping an eye on during the remainder of the year,” he explained. “Furthermore, fuel costs remain a key risk but recent WTI prices (to the extent they are sustained) point to upside to AC consensus estimates in our view.
“Additionally, we see geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East impacting near-term demand for CAE’s civil training solutions; however, this is reflected in the company’s F27 guide and near-term consensus estimates. In private aviation, bizjet activity remains a bright spot, with used inventory trending lower, a positive demand signal into the back half of the year. Chorus remains our top idea, representing a compelling value opportunity with management targeting $525-million in FCF through 2029 versus a $550-million market cap, offering in our view multiple paths to value creation and shareholder returns. ”
In a client report released on Monday, Mr. McGarragle increased his second-quarter expectations for Air Canada (AC-T), sitting above the Street’s projections.
“Our Q2 EBITDA moves to $688-million (from $653-million), above consensus of $661-million, driven by increased cargo revenue estimates resulting from disruptions in the Middle East,” he said. “Our updated estimate is within management’s guidance range of $575-725-million. Our 2026 EBITDA estimate also moves higher to $3.05-billion (from $2.99-billion), in line with consensus $3.06-billion, mainly driven by lower expected fuel costs and better than expected demand trends, although we flag potential upside here if fuel prices remain at current levels. We expect management to guide to Q3 EBITDA when they report results and believe guidance will come in ahead of Q3 consensus $950-million if fuel prices stay at current levels.
“We continue to view 2026 as a transitory year and anticipate a significant FCF inflection in 2028-2029 off normalizing capital expenditures. Our target multiple moves to 4 times (from 3.5 times) reflecting better visibility into fuel prices resulting in our higher price target.”
His target for Air Canada is now $28 from $22 with an unchanged “outperform” rating. The average is $23.34.
While he maintained his forecast for other companies in the industry, Mr. McGarragle made these target changes:
* Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) to $383 from $332 with an “outperform” rating. Average: $314.43.
Analyst: “Our Q2 EBITDA remains unchanged at $321-million, below consensus of $332-million due to margins. Our 2026E FCF estimate of $1.29-billion remains unchanged, above consensus $1.13B, and compares to guidance of more than $1-billion. This reflects our view that strong order activity is going to drive a book-to-bill more than 1 times and therefore upside to 2026 FCF. Our valuation multiple moves to 16 times (from 14.5 times) on robust demand signals resulting in our PT of $383 (from $332). We see runway for Bombardier to compound FCF at greater than a low-teen CAGR well into the 2030s - a compelling investment opportunity, in our view, for shares trading at a 5-per-cent FCF yield.”
* Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) to $150 from $127 with an “outperform” rating. Average: $129.33.
Analyst: “Our Q2E EBITDA remains unchanged into the quarter at $220-million, ahead of consensus $216-million, on the back of strong expected Manufacturing results, in our view. Our unchanged 2026 consolidated EBITDA of $880-million is above consensus $875-million and management’s guidance for EBITDA in the upper end of $825-875-million. We see potential upside to 2026 Manufacturing EBITDA estimates on stronger Canadian PMI readings and upside from defence-aligned capabilities.”
In other analyst actions:
* In their weekly metals analysis report, analysts at TD Cowen reduced their targets for Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T, “buy”) to $20 from $23 and Americas Gold & Silver Corp. (USA-T, “buy”) to $11 from $12. The averages are $28.72 and $13.95, respectively.
* In response to its agreement to acquire Oaktree’s 27.5-per-cent ownership interest in Aecon Utilities for $320-million, Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk bumped his Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) target to $57 from $56 with a “buy” rating. The average is $53.44.
“Aecon Utilities has meaningfully expanded since Oaktree’s initial investment in late 2023 through both organic growth and acquisitions, increasing its exposure to attractive electrical and communications infrastructure markets, while benefiting from long-term utility capital investment programs and growing demand driven by electrification and data centres. Management expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to adjusted EPS and plans to fund the purchase using existing cash resources and available capacity under its credit facility. The transaction is expected to close in Q4/2026, although Oaktree’s involvement in the business ceases immediately,” he said.
* With its deal to acquire Galaxy Broadband Communications from Crown Capital Partner, Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige increased his target for Calian Group Ltd. (CGY-T) to $105 from $103 with a “buy” rating. The average is $98.75.
“We believe Galaxy fits in well with Calian’s strategy and focus on serving essential industries. A key motivation here is that Galaxy helps Calian better position itself to serve Canada’s increased focus on Arctic security and surveillance. Galaxy’s communications solutions are ideally suited for challenging environments, and we believe that together with the prior AMS (Advanced Medical Solutions) acquisition, Calian is setting up a strong profile in catering to this key government initiative. Additionally, it also sets up Calian for the proposed modernization of NORAD (North American Aerospace Defence Command). We also note that this adds to Calian’s satellite ground station capabilities, allowing the company to extend its offerings in this area, given Galaxy’s expertise in satellite communications and LEO satellite deployment. Additionally, we understand that Galaxy brings incremental customer relationships, including infrastructure operators, provincial and local governments, etc.,” he said.
* Raymond James’ Michael Freeman raised his DRI Healthcare Trust (DHT.UN-T) target by $1 to $23.50 with a “strong buy” rating. The average is $21.33.
* Following a property tour of Oshawa Centre, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild hiked his Primaris REIT (PMZ.UN-T) target to $24.50 from $20.50 with a “buy” rating.
“We are raising our NAV estimate to $23.45 per unit from $22.72 to reflect both the positive impact of improved leasing and greater value attributed to excess land that could potentially be monetized over the next few years. Primaris currently trades at a 7.4-per-cent implied cap rate, or a 9.6-per-cent discount to our NAV estimate. Larger Canadian retail REITs trade at a weighted-average implied cap rate of 6.0 per cent, while U.S. mall REITs trade at 5.9 per cent. Reflecting the higher NAV and greater investor appreciation for management’s execution, our target price moves to $24.50,” he said.
* Coming off research restriction, ATB Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather trimmed his Sylogist Ltd. (SYZ-T) target to $5.50 from $6 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $3.75.
“Last week, we attended meetings between Sylogist’s new CEO Joel Leetzow and institutional investors. While the strategic plan is still taking shape, the company has already taken decisive steps to lower the cost structure and we expect rapid action on plans to revamp the go-to-market motion to capture more of the unit economics. Product work is underway, which should also improve competitiveness. While further patience will still be required, we think the risk-reward is skewed to the upside given the current market cap, improved growth outlook, and significant margin torque with greater scale,” said Mr. Fairweather.