Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks TMX Group Ltd.’s (X-T) operating results now “outweigh industry risks,” leading him to upgrade his rating for its shares to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We maintain a favourable view of TMX’s long-term growth outlook, strong track record of strategic execution (including recent acquisitions of CBOE and RAFI) and defensive attributes (e.g., over 50-per-cent recurring revenue, diversified/counter-cyclical revenue drivers, strong balance sheet and solid FCF generation),” he explained.
“Our estimates imply low double-digit EPS growth rates through 2027 as we anticipate continued solid growth from Derivatives, Trayport, VettaFi, Corporate Solutions and upside in trading volumes near term given volatility. This follows on EPS growth of 25 per cent in 2025 and 16 per cent in 2024. Despite the strong track record and outlook, TMX is down 4 per cent year-to-date vs. the S&P TSX Index up 11 per cent and Financials Index up 21 per cent.”
In a client report released alongside a previewing second-quarter earnings season for his Canadian Financial Services coverage, Mr. Gloyn acknowledged industry risks are “real, but manageable” for the Toronto-based company.
“Three themes have weighed on Securities Exchange industry mutliples,” he said. “Each risk is real, and early in their respective evolution, thus could present further downside in the shares. However, we believe TMX is well positioned to manage these risks. 1) AI may disrupt data consumption. We believe TMX’s market leading position in Canada (and in Europe for Trayport) provides an opportunity for TMX to meet clients where they are consuming that data. In addition, we believe TMX can upcharge AI applications and develop new products/services for AI driven clients (as NDAQ commented). 2) Tokenization will introduce 24/7 trading and instant settlement, which TMX built during its multi-year post-trade modernization. As the operator of the central registry and collateral management, TMX certainly has a right to play as these new markets develop. 3) Perpetual Futures can shift the way clients manage risk, however, early indications from CME suggest limited client demand, while NDAQ internal data shows no evidence of cannibalization in regions where perpetual futures exist.
The analyst reduced his target for TMX shares to $63 from $65. The average target on the Street is $68.86.
On the other companies he covers, Mr. Gloyn said: “Against strong year-to-date performance from the Canadian banks and life insurers, outperformance across our coverage has been narrow. Our large-cap top pick, IGM, has performed well and is the strongest name in our coverage. While we remain constructive, the implied valuation of the core platforms has increased materially. Accordingly, the risk/reward has become more balanced.
“Despite more muted share price performance, we remain positive on EFN and BN. For EFN, we continue to see an acceleration in services revenues as a catalyst to reverse the decline in shares. Q1 helped confirm that acceleration is underway, while overall revenue growth, EPS and FCF/share all continue to outperform expectations. For BN, the Just Group acquisition, improving real estate fundamentals and greater visibility into a carried interest inflection reinforce our confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook. We see an attractive risk/reward at 12 times NTM [next 12-month] P/DE.”
For IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T, “outperform”), Mr. Gloyn raised his target to $91 from $85. The average is $81.50.
“Our top pick has worked well,” he said. “IGM is up 36 per cent year-to-date and the strongest performer in our coverage. Our view was that the improving flows, better contributions from strategic investments and increasing capital return were not fully appreciated given the large discount implied for the core platforms when valuing strategic investments at their recent marks. Results have played out as expected, and we remain positive on the outlook as i) the HNW strategy at IG Wealth and rebound at Mackenzie have driven strong net flows, ii) strategic investments continue to scale and iii) IGM increased capital return through dividends and repurchases. That said, the strong share price performance in H1 has made the risk/reward somewhat more balanced. Stripping out the value of strategic investments such as China AMC, Wealthsimple, Rockefeller, Great-West, Northleaf, and cash suggests the implied valuation of core platforms has increased materially to more than 10 times, more in line with global wealth and asset manager peers currently trading at 10 times to 12 times. While we continue to expect solid earnings growth from core platforms and remain constructive on the shares, future upside is now more dependent on the future marks of strategic investments, the magnitude and timing of which are less predictable.”
His other target adjustments are:
- Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “outperform”) to $96 from $94. The average is $80.20.
- Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T, “outperform”) to $3,450 from $3,300. Average: $2,730.14.
- Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T, “sector perform”) to $5.50 from $6. Average: $6.
- Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T, “sector perform”) to $43 from $34. Average: $40.20.
- Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T, “outperform”) to $379 from $372. Average: $322.
- Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “sector perform”) to $102 from $85. Average: $87.
- Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T, “outperform”) to $60 from $59. Average: $57.58.
Jefferies analyst John Aiken believes a recovery in the valuations for Canadian personal and commercial insurers is “a positive but could indicate near-term volatility.”
“After facing pressure in the first quarter related to concerns regarding soft pricing in the broader global markets, the resiliency of Intact and Definity’s earnings forced the market to pay attention to the ongoing hard pricing in their domestic markets,” he said. “While technical issues, including ongoing flows into Canadian financials equities, supported the recovery in multiples, we view the strong valuation performance in the second quarter as rational. That said, with the potential Cat pressures continuing to weigh on earnings, current multiples on 2026 estimates are approaching ‘frothy’ levels. However, when viewed against 2027 expectations, the multiples are much more balanced and provide additional upside. However, should the second quarter earnings create some question about the run-rate level of earnings outside of weather events, we would expect to see some softness in valuations.”
In a client report released Monday, Mr. Aiken said he remains “quite constructive” on his outlook for the second quarter.
“The hard pricing experience in most domestic markets along with our expectation for continued yet modest volume growth, should be supportive to the top line,” he explained. “We also believe that current year claims ratios should be resilient, along with expense ratios. While investment income may not be facing incremental tailwinds with rates stabilizing, we are not anticipating any material pressure on that front either. Despite the challenged outlook for domestic GDP growth, the Canadian P&C insurers remain reasonably well-positioned, enjoying one of the more recession-proof business models in our coverage universe. Consequently, their relative valuation multiples reflect their defensive nature, with incremental upside should GDP growth accelerate.”
He raised his target for Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T) to $91 from $83 and Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) to $351 from $343, maintaining “buy” recommendations. The averages are $80.20 and $322, respectively.
“While these multiples appear stretched against our 2026 forecasts (22.5 times and 19.5 times, respectively) they are much more reasonable based on 2027 (19.0 times and 18.5 times, respectively), which will become our valuation year post Q2 reporting,” he noted.
Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff is “incrementally more bullish on lumber equities” heading into second-quarter earnings season.
“Amid reports of limited prompt-delivery lumber availability, North American lumber markets staged a counter-seasonal and counter-cyclical rally through 2Q26 and into July,” he said. “This supports our increasingly constructive view that lumber markets are entering the later stages of a multi-year downcycle. Western SPF continues to trade above US$500/mfbm [per thousand board feet], while Southern Yellow Pine remains well above US$400/mfbm, despite subdued housing activity and what is typically a seasonally weaker period for lumber demand. In our view, this is one of the clearest signals yet that structural supply constraints are beginning to offset cyclical demand weakness.
“With Western SPF and Southern Yellow Pine 2x4 pricing up approximately 4–6 per cent quarter-over-quarter, and composite prices up roughly 40–50 per cent year-over-year, we believe building materials earnings are reaching a material inflection point. Our 2Q26 estimates imply improved sequential results and dramatically stronger year-over-year performance, with most companies expected to meet or exceed current consensus expectations. Importantly, despite a challenging macro backdrop and punitive average duty rates of approximately 45 per cent, we estimate margins for larger North American lumber producers are approaching mid-cycle levels — reflecting the benefits of regional diversification, strategic asset repositioning, and the removal of uneconomic capacity."
Mr. Swetlishoff also emphasized the set-up for the second half of 2026 is also “surprisingly encouraging.”
“With benchmark CME SPF lumber futures breaking out, we remain constructive on 2H26. From a valuation viewpoint, stocks continue to trade near multi-year lows discounting just US$275/mfbm lumber prices,” he explained. “What’s more, we expect shipments of WSPF lumber to weaken further through the balance of the year as high-cost Cdn timber baskets remain heavily impacted by the combination of softwood lumber duties and Section 232 tariffs, with additional permanent closures announced of late. Coupled with resilient lumber prices and companies that have remained largely unexposed to wildfires (thus far), we recommend investors dip their feet into our lumber-levered top picks and build a full position ahead of the Halloween-to-Super Bowl seasonal trade.”
The analyst lowered his rating for Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” based on his below-consensus earnings outlook “coupled with the stock’s strong year-to-date performance despite a challenging macro backdrop.”
He kept a $12 target for Doman shares. The average is $12.32.
He also made these target changes:
- Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “outperform”) to $17 from $13. Average: $14.08.
- Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T, “outperform”) to $90 from $95. Average: $92.11.
- Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “market perform”) to $20 from $12.50. Average: $15.38.
“[We] highlight Outperform-rated Interfor and Canfor as our preferred lumber names. We see both companies as offering attractive torque to improving lumber prices and an eventual recovery in housing activity. The opposite is true for OSB. Recent and ongoing capacity expansion has left OSB prices near break-even levels, limiting near-term earnings upside. As such, we maintain our Market Perform rating on West Fraser, despite forecasting an approximately 3-per-cent earnings beat when the company reports on Wednesday, July 29,” he said.
Following “solid” second-quarter results, RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy thinks Ovintiv Inc.’s (OVV-N, OVV-T) “streamlined portfolio, resource depth and enhanced shareholder returns point toward relative multiple expansion and continued share price appreciation.”
“Ongoing solid performance, like what we saw in the second-quarter, along with potential S&P/TSX index inclusion, could accelerate this dynamic,” he added in a client report titled Quality at a Steep Discount.
On Friday, shares of the Denver-based energy producer rose 2.8 per cent after reported in-line production of 614,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including Permian “outperformance” as well as a “favorable” 2026 guidance update with its net debt now below $3-billion, falling 52 per cent sequentially due largely to the disposition of its Anadarko assets.
“Catalyst-wise, Ovintiv has fulfilled all S&P/TSX Composite eligibility criteria under a proposed framework published by S&P Dow Jones Indices on July 23, which would expand index eligibility to include TSX-listed foreign issuers with a meaningful Canadian presence,” he added. “Under this framework, a 50-per-cent foreign issuer factor would be applied to Ovintiv’s float-adjusted market capitalization, resulting in a theoretical composite weight of approximately 0.221 per cent. If adopted, changes would take effect at the September 2026 annual rebalancing (market open September 21, 2026), with market participant feedback due by August 21, 2026. Based on RBC Index Strategy Team’s estimate (as of July 23), this would equate to roughly 3.4 million shares of direct indexing demand for Ovintiv.”
With the bulk of its efforts to deleverage its balance sheet completed, Mr. Pardy thinks the company has “greater flexibility to allocate free cash flow to shareholder returns.”
“As such, Ovintiv is now targeting to return 60-per-cent-plus of free cash flow (across dividends + buybacks) to shareholders on an annualized basis (under current pricing) in 2026 versus its previous signal of returning 50-75 per cent. What this means is that the company’s buybacks could ramp up materially in the second half. In this regard, we have factored in $625-million of share repurchases for Ovintiv in the second half of 2026. Over the longer term, Ovintiv remains committed to returning 50-100 per cent of its free cash flow to investors across dividends and buybacks.
“Also notable in Ovintiv’s quarter was a $45-million restructuring expense (in connection with headcount downsizing), and a $20-million one-time interest expense related to the redemption of its 5.650 per cent ($700-million) notes due 2028. A $40-million sulphur revenue contribution supported a natural gas wellhead realization in Canada of $2.05/mcf, while pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian resulted in a U.S. gas realization of $0.03/mcf. Under our base outlook, U.S. natural gas production will account for just 8 per cent of Ovintiv’s second-half 2026 equivalent production.”
Seeing a “steep” discount in its current valuation, Mr. Pardy reaffirmed Ovintiv’s place on the “RBC Global Energy Best Ideas List” and hiked his target to US$85 from US$70 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is US$69.87.
“Under futures (priced as of July 22), Ovintiv is trading at a 2027E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 4.0 times (vs. our North American Senior E&P peer group avg. of 5.3 times) and a 12-per-cent free cash flow yield (enterprise value) (vs. peers at 9 per cent). We believe that Ovintiv should trade in line with our North American peer group given its capable leadership team, impressive execution capability, inventory depth in the Montney, enhanced shareholder returns and strong balance sheet.”
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Harvey came away from Headwater Exploration Inc.’s (HWX-T) second-quarter final results “positively, driven by continued results at its prospective regions in the Grand Rapids, Pelican and Seal.”
“Quarterly results were largely in line with waterflood supported volumes continuing to trend upwards - HWX flagged near-term visibility to corporate declines of 15 per cent,” he added. “Our estimates for 2026/27 increase modestly.”
On Friday, the Calgary-based company reported production of 24,567 barrels of oil equivalent per day, leading to cash flow per share of 49 cents. Both met Mr. Harvey’s projections (24,500 boe/d and 49 cents).
“The 2026 capital budget remains unchanged at $250-million with capital split between maintenance/growth ($110-million), secondary recovery ($65-million), exploration ($25-million), infrastructure ($25-million) and land ($25-million),” he said.
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating, the analyst raised his target by $1 to $15. The average is $12.07.
“A premium multiple is warranted in our view given very strong fundamentals, though we see less room for expansion vs peers at current levels,” he noted.
“Our $15.00 price target reflects execution of the company’s core development plan (including waterflood implementation) and successful exploration drilling across over 400 net sections in the Clearwater (risked at 25 per cent). We have modelled a 350 mboe type curve on the company’s core development and utilize a 100–150 mboe curve for exploration prospects.”
Heading into second-quarter earnings season for precious metals producers, Desjardins Securities analysts Bryce Adams and Allison Carson warn both lower prices and “increased pressure on costs due to higher diesel prices and consumables” are likely to weigh on results.
"In 2Q26, gold and silver prices pulled back sharply, with averages for the quarter of US$4,518/oz and US$73.24/oz, respectively," they said. “Gold was pressured by shifting expectations toward higher Fed rates for longer and the potential for additional hikes alongside firm real yields and a stronger USD. Silver also weakened due to its higher beta vs gold.”
“We also note that 2Q26 was the lowest quarter of production for several of our precious metals producers, putting further pressure on AISC on a per-ounce basis, with 2Q26 expected to be the highest-cost quarter for several of the producers under coverage.”
With the 12 of the 16 companies in their coverage universe having pre-released production results for the quarter, the analysts say their expectations largely fall in line with the Street’s forecasts.
“We estimate a beat vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA for OLA and MAI; however, we note that MAI’s consensus numbers may not reflect the recently released production results,” they said. “We model a miss vs consensus on both EPS and EBITDA estimates for USA, ITR and AGI, although we expect there are several analyst estimates not updated for production results from USA and ITR. For AGI, we are only modestly below the Street at 6 per cent for EBITDA and 5 per cent for EPS.”
In a client report released before the bell, Mr. Adams and Ms. Carson made only modest adjustments to their projections, leading to a pair of target reductions:
- Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG-T, “buy”) to $100 from $105. The average is $106.40.
- Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T, “buy”) to $29 from $30. Average: $28.20.
Their top picks are:
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) with a “buy” rating and $38 target. Average: $36.11.
Analysts: “For AYA, Zgounder’s production profile now reconciles well with the technical report, while the upcoming Boumadine MRE/PEA update can be a potential catalyst unlocking longer-term growth at a discounted valuation.”
* K92 Mining Inc. (KNT-T) with a “buy” rating and $36 target. Average: $37.42.
Analysts: “We see KNT offering a compelling combination of near-term production growth and above-average resource upside.”
* G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with a “buy” rating and $60 target. Average: $59.90.
Analysts: “For GMIN, we expect a strong 2H for production (60-per-cent weighted) from TZ and a catalyst-rich back half of the year to drive performance. We expect continued positive construction updates from Oko West, which remains on time and on budget. The company will also release an updated resource and PEA for Gurupi in 2H, which we expect to demonstrate the potential value for GMIN’s next development project.”
Ventum Financial analyst Daniel Lavoie thinks 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) is “benefiting from a powerful combination of secular growth, geopolitical realignment, and supply-chain scarcity.”
“At its core, 5N+ supplies highly specialized advanced materials that are critical to the functionality, reliability, and performance of its customers’ end products,” he said. “While these materials often represent a small portion of total system cost, their importance is disproportionate: without the required purity, consistency and qualification, the final product may not perform as intended. This is especially relevant in terrestrial solar modules, space solar cells, satellite power systems, infrared optics, medical imaging, and pharmaceutical materials.
“The Company’s geographic footprint, sourcing capabilities, technical know-how, and ability to add capacity in line with customer demand have positioned it as a supplier of choice in markets where reliability, qualification history, and security of supply matter. In addition, many of its key end markets are served by only a limited number of qualified suppliers outside China, creating a more disciplined competitive environment and supporting attractive long-term economics.”
In a client report released Monday titled From Solar Panels to Satellites: 5N+ Finds its Orbit, Mr. Lavoie initiated coverage of the Montreal-based company with a “buy” rating, projecting revenue growth of 26.5 per cent in 2026 followed by a gain of 16.5 per cent in 2027.
“While this implies a strong multi-year growth profile, we believe the assumptions are supported by contracted demand, ongoing capacity additions, strong end-market growth in terrestrial and space solar power, and favourable pricing dynamics tied to security of supply,” he added.
“Through our ownership lens, focused on identifying long-term compounders, what stands out is the shift toward greater durability and the quality of capital allocation since the turnaround. 5N+ has evolved into a structurally higher-quality business, with double-digit revenue growth materially expanded. We believe 5N+ remains in the early stages of a long-term transformation that began with the AZUR acquisition and the repositioning of Performance Materials. The Company’s growing role as a trusted Western supplier of mission-critical advanced materials remains underappreciated.”
He set a target of $44, pointing to a 31-per-cent expected total return over the coming 12 months. The average on the Street is $46.69.
In other analyst actions:
* Citing uranium market strength, UBS’ George Eadie upgraded Cameco Corp. (CCO-T) to “buy” from “neutral” with a $166 target. The average on the Street is $176.88.
* After an update to Citi’s precious metals price assumptions, analyst Alexander Hacking cut his targets for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N/AEM-T, “buy”) to US$200 from US$256 and Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N/ABX-T, “neutral”) target to US$41 from US$48. The averages are US$228.46 and US$53.81, respectively.
“We update our AEM model for Citi’s latest gold price forecasts (reduced in 2H26, but maintained at $5,000/oz in 2027E),” he said on Agnico. “2Q EBITDA is set at $2.7-billion with EPS of $2.98/sh. 2026E EBITDA is reduced 9 per cent to $11.1-billion (also accounting for lower guidance at Canadian Malartic) and 2027E EBITDA is reduced 2 per centto $12.5-billion. We lower our TP to $200/sh on 1.6 times NAV on $3,500/oz long-term gold (reduced from 2.0 times) - to account for lower spot gold prices. We maintain a Buy given Citi’s bullish 2027 gold price outlook & view that AEM is the best operator in the sector.”
* Ahead of the release of its quarterly results on Aug. 5 before the bell, TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne bumped her Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N, BAM-T) target to US$70 from US$69 with a “buy” rating. The average is US$60.63.
“BAM is set for strong DE/FRE growth in Q2/26, is on track for record 2026 fundraising and has a differentiated AI infrastructure platform. Investor concerns about private credit have arguably peaked, which is supportive of the whole sector,” she said. “The BEP/BIP corporate simplifications should increase the investor appeal/index eligibility of those affiliates, which is earnings accretive to BAM over time.”
* In response to better-than-anticipated second-quarter results and a raise to its guidance, Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier increased his target for Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) shares to $199 from $185 with a “buy” rating. Others making changes include: Wells Fargo’s Christian Wetherbee to US$145 from US$135 with an “overweight” rating, Barclays’ Brandon Oglenski to $185 from $155 with an “equal-weight” rating, Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $199 from $194 with a “sector outperform” rating, ATB Cormark’s Chris Murray to $185 from $166 with a “sector perform” rating, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $200 from $198 with an “outperform” rating, TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne to $205 from $191 with a “buy” rating, RBC’s Walter Spracklin to $205 from $195 with an “outperform” rating. and National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $192 from $173 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $175.20.
“Expectations were elevated for CN following earnings beats across the rail group and improving momentum in transportation markets. CN exceeded those expectations, delivering 11-per-cent year-over-year EPS growth driven by 5-per-cent RTM [revenue ton mile] growth, strength in grain and energy, and better fuel efficiency. CN modestly raised guidance to reflect sustained demand trends and provided details on the recently signed MOU with Union Pacific, which is expected to enhance CN’s access to Mexico-bound freight opportunities,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Wells Fargo analyst Shar Pourreza increased his Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) target to $75 from $72 with an “equal-weight” rating. The average is $77.73.
* In a report titled Execution Is The Meat Of The Matter, CIBC’s Ty Collin initiated coverage of Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) with an “outperformer” rating and $36 target. The average is $37.
“With the CPKR spin-off complete and major capex investments behind it, we view MFI as a simplified CPG business with strong brands that is transitioning into a phase of enhanced cash generation. The company has laid out a credible long-term growth framework, but achieving these targets would require a level of consistency that has not always been typical for MFI. The stock trades at a discount to branded CPG peers, and we see an opportunity for a valuation re-rate as MFI establishes a track record of consistent performance and shareholder-friendly capital allocation,” said Mr. Collin.
* TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher initiated coverage of Vital Infrastructure Property Trust (VITL.UN-T) with a “buy” rating and $6 target. The average is $6.34.
“We view Vital as a compelling healthcare infrastructure REIT in transition,” said Mr. Kelcher. “As capital is redeployed into North America, Vital is positioned to benefit from growing healthcare demand. However, with the units trading above the historical average discount vs peers and execution risk and potential earnings volatility on capital recycling, we view the current valuation as fair.”
“Vital is coming out of its 2024 strategic review with a new management team and focus. We believe there are a number of positive factors that could drive multiple expansion for the REIT over time, as well as a number of concerns investors may have.”