Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Subdued crude outlook but positive gas
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng is bullish on natural gas but is not expecting a rally in crude prices,
“We have lowered our 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecast as we think the higher geopolitical risk premium will be short-lived and will likely resume a bearish trend due to weaker supply/demand fundamentals. The U.S.’ actions in Venezuela could also mark the beginning of a new chapter for OPEC and lower longer-term oil prices. On the other hand, we remain enthusiastic about the North America natural gas outlook and believe the bull market is now here. We believe the ramp of the next wave of LNG projects, continued growth for gas-fired power generation demand, more normal winter weather conditions, and low rig count set the stage for strong NYMEX prices into 1H/27. We are also bullish on the AECO market versus the strip, provided LNG Canada ramps in a smooth and timely manner. We have kept our NYH 3-2-1 crackspread forecasts largely unchanged in 2026 and 2027, but have raised our assumptions in 2028-2030, up between $1-$1.3/bbl per year, driven by our expectation of higher RIN prices.”
The NYH crack spread is the expected refiner profits from crude oil.
New Aristocrats
Also from Scotiabank, strategist Jean-Michel Gauthier expects 11 new stocks to be added to the TSX Dividend Aristocrats index,
“We highlight our predictions for the upcoming annual TSX Dividend Aristocrats rebalance on January 30. S&P will use December 31st 2025 as the reference date for dividend and pricing data. Preliminary changes will be announced on January 23rd after the close. Five years after the COVID-19 induced dividend cuts of 2020, several companies now offer a pristine 5Yr history of growing dividends. We expect the largest number of adds since the January 2020 rebalance”
The stocks are Westshore Terminals Investment Corp., Mullen Group Ltd., Topaz Energy Corp., Brookfield Renewable Corp., MTY Food Group, Cenovus Energy Group, BRP Inc., Richelieu Hardware Ltd., Gildan Activewear Inc., CES Energy Solutions Corp. and OR Royalties Inc.
Mr. Gauthier expects Canada Packers Inc. to be removed.
Real estate
TD Analyst Sam Damiani summarized the highlights from the company’s seventh annual real estate conference,
“Retail: Incrementally more positive as leasing strength is showing no signs of slowing, the tenants-of-concern list remains scant, and today’s historically high SPNOI growth appears likely to continue.
“2 Apartments: Slightly more negative. Our base case is softer fundamentals through mid 2027. That is unchanged, but it appears that Q4 demand slowed in the seasonally weak period.
“3 Industrial: Slightly more positive as concerns have eased around USMCA negotiations and visibility of an eventual broad resumption in rent growth is improving.
“4 Seniors: Unchanged. Fundamentals remain very strong with limited new supply expected until 2029.
“5 Office: Slightly more positive as Allied and Dream Office both see quality/quantity of leasing pipelines improve.
“Our larger-cap pecking order is led by PMZ.un, FCR.un, BEI.un, DIR.un, and KMP.un. Our smaller-cap pecking order is led by DRM, HOM-u, and MHC-u.”
Bluesky post of the day
GOLDMAN DESK: ".. . I still believe the big dynamics are friendly for risk." But "there are times to go for the gas, there are times to go for the brake, and there are times to do neither. my instinct is the right judgement for the next few months is door number three." [Pasquariello]
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) January 14, 2026 at 7:54 AM
Diversion
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