A look at some small-cap stocks making news - or about to
Canada’s S&P/TSX Small Cap Index (TXTW-I) is up by about 80 per cent over the past 52 weeks. It hit a record 1,472.51 on March 2. The Russell 2000 in the U.S. is up about 26 per cent over the past 52 weeks. It hit a record of 2,735.10 on Jan. 22.
Small-cap summary:
North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA-T) shares sank in early Thursday trading after the company reported mixed results for its fourth quarter. The results led to at least one analyst downgrade.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the company reported revenue of $344-million, down from $372.7-million a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of $311.8-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Net income of $125,000 or nil per share compared to net income of $3.5-million or 13 cents per share a year earlier.
It reported an adjusted loss of $4.3-million or 14 cents compared to a profit of $27-million or $1.01 a share a year earlier. The company said the drop, “reflects our earnings and the impact of a higher average share count of 28.2 million (up from 26.8 million in 2024 Q4), driven by the issuance of 3.0 million shares from convertible debentures in February 2025, partially offset by share repurchases.”
Adjusted EBITDA was $77.6-million, down from $108.9-million a year earlier. The expectation was for adjusted EBITDA of $98.1-million.
“2025 marked a year of record revenue for NACG, reflecting the continued growth and diversification of our global platform,” stated CEO Barry Palmer.
“However, earnings during the year were severely impacted by a number of extraordinary one-time project-level adjustments. Specific to the fourth quarter, we recognized a life-to-date adjustment for updated cost-to-complete for the structures, railroads, and aqueducts within the Fargo-Moorhead flood diversion project. Notably, our portion of the project, the large-scale earthworks, [has] continued to perform well – as expected. In addition, above-average rain events in Queensland had a negative impact late in the quarter.”
He said the company is entering 2026 “with a very different, significantly more positive and stable outlook based on clear operational priorities and strong demand across our markets.”
BMO analyst John Gibson downgraded the stock to “market perform” (hold) from “outperform” (buy) and lowered his target to $23 from $26 after the earnings report.
“NOA posted softer Q4/25 results, driven by cost increases related to its Fargo Moorhead project. The company’s 2026 guide implies a solid lift in results, although we don’t expect a material ramp until 2H at the earliest,” he said, adding that “patience [is] required as the company looks to regain investor confidence post some guidance revisions in 2025.”
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev said in a note that joint-venture operations “drove the material top-line miss.”
Added Mr. Sytchev: “Looking forward to 2026E, management reiterated its guidance for full-year combined revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS, although it appears expectations for capex and adjusted EPS are no longer explicitly stated.”
He added that the repositioning of Canadian oil sands assets, “we (and investors) are looking forward to seeing a cleaner pro forma earnings profile from the company.”
He has an “outperform” (buy) rating and $28 target on the stock.
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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL-T) shares were down in early Thursday trading after the company reported a drop in revenue and a wider net loss for its fourth quarter ended Dec. 31.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the company reported revenue of $455-million, down from $590.3-million in the prior-year quarter. The result was below expectations of $474.3-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Its net loss of $364.7-million or $3.36 per share compared to net loss of $66.5-million or 61 cents in the prior-year quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $95.2-million compared to a loss of $60.3-million a year ago. The expectation was for a loss of $96.4-million.
Shipments of 378,533 tons compared to 548,802 tons in the prior-year quarter.
“The fourth quarter marked a pivotal moment in Algoma’s transformation,” stated CEO Rajat Marwah. “While the 50% U.S. Section 232 tariffs (S232 Tariffs) created real headwinds, closing the American market to Canadian producers and driving domestic pricing well below historical norms, we responded with decisive action and emerged with a clearer, stronger strategic path forward.”
Stifel analyst Ian Gillies, who has a “buy” and $11.50 target, described the quarter as “pretty uneventful all else equal,” noting the company pre-released its results on Jan. 8.
“We believe the current pricing constructs could allow for consensus 2026E EBITDA of -$117 mm to improve considerably, albeit breakeven may be a stretch. Our thesis that there is sufficient liquidity to get the business back to profitably is unchanged,” he wrote.
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NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T) shares were up in early Thursday trading after the company reported record fourth-quarter results that largely beat expectations.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the busmaker reported net earnings of US$166-million or US$1.39 per share, up from US$18.6-million or 16 cents US a year earlier.
Adjusted net earnings of US$59.6-million or 50 cents US per share were up from US$13.9-million or 12 cents US a year earlier. The result beat expectations of 30 cents US per share, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Adjusted EBITDA of US$121.3-million was up from US$67.9-million a year earlier. The result beat expectations of US$102.4-million.
Revenue of US$1.03-billion was up from US$837-million a year earlier. The result was below expectations of US$1.08-billion.
“During the quarter, we saw improvements in deliveries and revenue, alongside margin expansion as we converted our backlog into results,” stated CEO John Sapp in a release.
Stifel analyst Daryl Young, who has a “buy” and $23 target, said the company delivered a “strong” beat in the quarter.
“Overall, a strong print and encouraging 2026 outlook with few/no major supply chain concerns currently (including steel/aluminum),” he wrote. “NFI shares have continued to trade at a very depressed valuation following the string of operational challenges in 2024/2025, but we are cautiously optimistic that the business is stabilizing and that 2026 will see material.”
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Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) were higher in early Thursday trading after a fourth-quarter earnings report that showed weak growth but a strong backlog.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the company reported revenue of $877-million compared to $936.7-million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The result was below expectations of $907.1-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Its net loss was $14-million or 25 cents per share compared to net income of $32.5-million or 59 cents per share a year earlier.
Adjusted earnings were $31.8-million or 57 cents per share compared to earnings of $37.3-million or 67 cents a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of 54 cents.
Adjusted EBITDA of $66.2-million, roughly in line with expectations of $62-million, compared to $71.9-million a year earlier.
“As anticipated, revenue for the quarter was lower than 2024 driven by the ongoing impact of previously disclosed delays in the start of certain contracted projects, resulting in full-year revenue in line with last year,” the company stated.
It said its backlog remained at record levels of $5.1-billion at year-end, and pending backlog grew to more than $6-billion “with the renewal and award of several recurring revenue master service agreement (MSA) contracts and award of collaborative contracts in the quarter.”
The company said its “risk-balanced combined backlog reflects higher margins than a year ago, and along with the robust bidding environment in Bird’s key sectors gives the company confidence in achieving growth and further profitability enhancement in 2026 and 2027.”
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev said in a note that “despite some puts and takes, the backlog continues to grind higher and nation-building projects are still in the future.”
Added Mr. Sytchev: “We remain comfortable with Bird’s outlook and margin guidance, believe that delayed programs will ramp up starting in Q2/26E and overall continue to be bullish on CAD construction industry – no risk of AI, fund flow beneficiaries, expanding margins, and most end-markets (infra, oil & gas, mining, defense, nuclear, ports, etc.) are all seeing strong positive momentum.“
Stifel analyst Ian Gillies described the results as “positive” in a note.
“Bird’s strong margin performance and backlog growth should more than offset any concerns around weak 4Q25 organic growth,” he wrote. “We continue to believe BDT’s 2027E 8.0% EBITDA margin target is attainable and organic revenue growth should return to company’s guidance range of 8-12% beginning in 2Q26E. We view the company’s valuation as attractive as it trades at 6.7x EV/EBITDA and 10.2x P/E in 2027E, significantly behind its peer group at 9.8x and 19.0x, respectively while offering a similar 25-27E EPS CAGR (BDT: 28%, group: 31%).
Added Mr.Gilles: “Thematically, the company fits well within the Canadian reindustrialization and defence spending group.”
He has a “buy” and $36 target on the stock.
BMO Capital Markets analyst John Gibson increased his target price to $38 from $35 after the earnings report and maintained his “outperform” (buy) rating.
“Bird reported solid Q4/25 results, while recent project wins continue to drive the backlog higher (with higher embedded margins),” he wrote. “The quarter went largely as expected, with some project delays impacting results Y/Y. We don’t expect a material ramp in results until Q2/26, at which time several projects should pick-up, while maintenance work returns.”
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Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) shares were down in early Thursday trading after it announced a $150-million bought-deal financing.
After markets closed on Wednesday, Aecon said it has an agreement to sell about 3.8 million shares to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets and TD Securities Inc. for $39.25 each.
The stock closed at $41.45 on Wednesday.
Aecon said it granted the underwriters an overallotment option to purchase up to an additional 573,300 shares on the same terms for approximately $23-million.
Aecon said it intends to use the net proceeds to repay amounts drawn under its revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes.
On Monday, the company said its Aecon Utilities Group Inc. subsidiary bought Duna Services, LLC and its subsidiaries Arc American, LLC and C.A. Advanced, LLC, and a 49-per-cent interest in KNX Utility Services, LLC from Ryker Holdings Inc. for US$60-million. It said the deal includes potential for additional contingent proceeds and that the transaction is being financed through Aecon Utilities’ standalone committed revolving credit facility.
“This acquisition provides additional U.S. platforms to accelerate growth in the electrical distribution and transmission market, augments our self-perform offering with cross-selling opportunities, increases recurring revenue, and enhances our ability to expand into growing regions with attractive project pipelines,” said Aecon CEO Jean-Louis Servranckx.
National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev described it as the “right place, right time to expand the utilities platform” in a note.
“The Duna/KNX purchase follows the string of tuck-in M&A by management, which has picked up following Oaktree’s late-2023 investment,” he wrote. “Combined with a near-record backlog, an infrastructure-friendly Federal administration in Canada, and the runoff of problematic legacy projects de-risking the pro forma margin and earnings profile... we remain firmly bullish on the ARE thesis.”
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CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU-T) shares rose in early Wednesday trading after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations and a 29-per-cent increase to its quarterly dividend.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the company reported revenue of $664.5-million, up from $605.4-million a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of $633.6-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Net income of $68.3-million or 32 cents per share was up from $41.9-million or 18 cents per share a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of 23 cents for the latest quarter.
The company also increased its quarterly dividend from $0.0425 to $0.055 per share paid on April 15 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 31.
National Bank analyst Dan Payne maintained his “outperform” (buy) rating and increased his target to $20 from $15 after the “very strong quarter.”
“We maintain high confidence in CEU’s business, where its highly entrenched offering should continue to gain traction through emerging thematics (intensity) plus expanding market share, as unique in an otherwise anemic activity landscape,” he wrote. “Bottom line, its high-quality consumable chemicals business should continue to experience customer-driven product adoption, as referenced in recent new business wins, which should see it realize earnings momentum in support of meaningful free cash and a continued cadence of return of capital.
TD analyst Aaron MacNeil increased his target to $18 from $16 after the earnings and maintained his “hold” recommendation.
“CES beat our Q4 EBITDAS estimate by ~6% and consensus by ~10% as a result of stronger-than-anticipated margins,” he wrote. “Notably, the company also announced a 29% increase in its quarterly dividend. As a result of our increased estimates and continued multiple expansion, our PT has increased to $18/share representing a 9.6x EV/EBITDA target multiple.”
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Total Energy Services Inc. (TOT-T) reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the company reported revenue of $301.7-million, up from $246.8-million a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of $277-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Net income of $23.7-million or 63 cents per share compared to $10-million or 26 cents a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of 46 cents.
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Dorel Industries Inc. (DII-B-T) reported lower revenue and trimmed its loss for the fourth quarter.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the Montreal-based juvenile and home products company reported revenue of US$278.9-million, down from US$326.8-million a year earlier. The result was below expectations of US$295.5-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Its net loss was US$24.6-million or 76 cents per share, compared to a loss of US$73-million or US$2.24 per share a year earlier.
Its adjusted net loss of US$11.2-million or 35 cents per share compared to a loss of US$59.2-million or US$1.82 per share a year earlier.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Stephen MacLeod moved his target price up slightly to $2.25 from $2 and kept his “market perform” (hold) after the earnings report.
“Q4/25 results were below forecast, but the quarter represented the first return to profitable adj. EBIT since Q3/21,” he wrote. “Juvenile results were above forecast, while Home was below. Home restructuring largely completed in Q4 (some top-line noise continues into Q1/26E) is expected to drive a return to profitability H2/26E, though off a smaller revenue base (~$250-300mm annual run-rate vs. $516mm 2024A, single-digit operating margins). Juvenile momentum has improved and is expected to continue 2026E.”
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MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) said it plans to raise $300 million in an initial public offering in the United States. After markets closed on Tuesday, the company said it made an application to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange
It said the offering will be conducted through a syndicate of underwriters led by J.P. Morgan and RBC Capital Markets, who are acting as joint lead active bookrunners, and BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank Securities, Jefferies, Scotiabank, and Canaccord Genuity, who are acting as joint active bookrunners.
MDA Space stated in a release that it intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to pursue its growth strategies, “including expanding its customer base and solutions, supporting the growth of existing customers, and pursuing other strategic opportunities, which may include acquisitions or investments.”
MDA Space also said it may use the funds for general corporate purposes, including repaying debt.
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Pollard Banknote Ltd. (PBL-T) reported fourth-quarter results that improved from a year earlier but missed expectations.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the company said its revenue reached $150.8-million in the quarter, up 7.5 per cent from $140.3-million in the fourth quarter of last year. The result was below expectations of $151.2-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Net income was $4.6-million or 17 cents per share compared to a net loss of $1.8-million or 6 cents for the same quarter a year earlier.
Adjusted EBITDA of $27.7-million, up from $25.2-million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The result was below expectations of $30-million.
Acumen Capital analyst Jim Byrne described the results as “neutral” for the shares “as strong revenue growth and solid performance from iLottery is offset by lower-than-expected gross margins.”
Added Mr. Byrne: “With many of the headwinds impacting gross margins in 2025 abating, we anticipate improving margins over the next several quarters.”
He has a “buy” and $32 price target.
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Ballard Power Systems (BLDP-T) announced a commercial agreement with New Flyer, a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc. (NFI-T), for 50 megawatts (MW) of fuel-cell bus engines.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the company said the deal represents the “largest single commitment from New Flyer since the partnership began.”
It said deliveries will start this year and will power New Flyer’s Xcelsior CHARGE FC™ hydrogen fuel cell buses across North America.
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Transcontinental Inc. (TCL-A-T) made a series of announcements on Tuesday, including a special cash dividend, a new CEO and first-quarter financial results.
After markets closed on Tuesday, the company announced a special cash distribution of $20 per share in connection with the sale of its packaging sector to ProAmpac Holdings Inc. It said the distribution will be payable on March 20 to shareholders of record holding Class A and Class B shares as of March 18.
Earlier on Tuesday, the company announced it appointed Sam Bendavid as CEO, effective April 6. He’s currently the company’s chief corporate development and procurement officer. Mr. Bendavid will succeed Thomas Morin, who will be leaving the company on the same date.
“This transition stems from the sale of the corporation’s packaging business and is part of a rigorous succession planning process aimed at ensuring continuity and sustained growth,” it stated.
The company also reported revenue of $263.5-million for the quarter ended Jan. 25, up from $257.7-million a year earlier.
“This increase is mostly attributable to our recent acquisitions and the favourable exchange rate effect, partially mitigated by lower volume and price concessions in the Retail Services and Printing Sector,” it stated.
Its net loss from continuing operations of $200,000 or nil per share compared to a profit of $4.8-million or 6 cents last year.
Adjusted earnings of $6.7-million or 8 cents compared to $8.2-million or 10 cents a year ago.
“Despite soft fiscal Q1 results, management reiterated guidance for stable 2026 EBITDA from continuing operations,“ TD analyst Sean Steuart said in a note. ”Our constructive thesis is backstopped by robust FCF potential for the legacy Retail Services & Printing segment, bolstered by potential growth in the in-store marketing (ISM) and Educational Publishing sub-segments. Management seems biased towards growth after the special dividend.
Added Mr. Steuart: “TCL will be a much smaller equity going forward, but the pro forma valuation appears attractive. Depending on where the shares trade ex-dividend (based on tax status of Class A shareholders), we estimate a run-rate EV/EBITDA multiple range of 3.1x-3.8x and a FCF yield range of 19%-29%.”
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Transat A.T. Inc. (TRZ-T) reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
Before markets opened on Tuesday, the company said its revenue for the quarter ended Jan. 31 rose 5 per cent to $871-million year over year, which was ahead of expectations of $852.5-million.
Its first-quarter loss of $29.5-million or 73 cents a share compared with a loss of $122.5-million or $3.10 in the same period a year ago.
Traffic, measured by revenue-passenger-miles, rose by 2 per cent in the quarter, and planes were 81.5-per-cent full, compared with 80.6 in the year-earlier quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA of $33.6-million compared to $20-million last year and was ahead of expectations of $22.3-million.
Also on Tuesday, Quebecor Inc. chief executive officer Pierre Karl Péladeau lost his bid to take control of the Transat board at its annual meeting.
National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen said the outcome of the proxy battle was expected.
“Given the lack of relevant industry expertise of the proposed dissident board nominees and no detailed new strategic plan for Transat, we view this as a positive outcome,” he wrote in a note. “We still believe that Mr. Peladeau could seek to acquire Transat outright and take it private at some point in the future.”
He also maintained his “sector perform” (hold) and $3 target after the earnings.
“Although the company’s profitability improvement program should positively impact results in the coming quarters and travel demand broadly still remains positive, we have some concerns about a more competitive environment (higher industry capacity growth on Europe routes this summer), some headwinds for the remainder of the winter due to the cessation of flights to Cuba, and a recent spike in jet fuel prices,” he wrote.
TD analyst Tim James wrote in a note that he believes geopolitical headwinds are likely to impact margins in fiscal 2026, along with share price sentiment, “leading us to be cautious on the stock. ”
He noted the second-quarter results are expected to be impacted by Cuba flight suspensions and Mexico headwinds.
“We believe the war in the ME [Middle East] heightens downside risk for traffic, yields, and margin for H2/F26,” he wrote. “If jet fuel prices remain high for a prolonged period, the required fare increases could weigh on traffic and load factor. Management’s Q2/F26 guide suggests demand is holding up, though [the] environment remains volatile.”
The analyst added: “We believe there may be a time to acquire Transat shares when earnings visibility is higher. We may miss early upside in the stock, but prefer a lower risk/higher certainty entry point as we believe there will still be significant medium- to long-term upside potential.”
He has a “hold” and $3 target on the stock.
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Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) shares plunged this week after the personal lender for subprime borrowers shocked investors by announcing surging loan losses and suspending its dividend.
Goeasy said it will book an incremental $178-million charge for bad loans when it reports fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 at the end of the month, as well as a $55-million writedown for loan interest and fees.
The company also withdrew its previously reported fourth-quarter business outlook and its three-year financial forecast.
Read the full Globe story here
National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn reduced his rating to “sector perform” (hold) from “outperform” (buy) and lowered his target to $50 from $210.
“This update is a clearing event that shifts GSY into a full transition over the next several years,” he wrote. “While the update resets expectations, there remain significant risks to the story. Management pulled guidance and provided limited detail, which leaves investors (and us) with impaired visibility on the outlook and future earnings power of the business.”
Added Mr. Gloyn: “Beyond earnings power we see other sources of uncertainty, including: a) whether current allowances (~10%) are sufficient versus management’s expectation for mid-teens net charge-offs, b) stability of loan terms (e.g., cost, collateral) given negotiations with the lending syndicate, and c) risk of shareholder dilution if an equity raise is required to satisfy liquidity or leverage constraints.”
TD analyst Graham Ryding reduced his target price to $44 from $135.
“We are maintaining our ‘hold’ rating given the share price sell off and discounted current valuation (0.6x P/B),” he wrote. “The earnings outlook has materially weakened; we now forecast modest profitability in 2026 (improvement in 2027), albeit acknowledge earnings are sensitive to net charge offs. Q4/25 results and updated outlook will be released Mar. 25.”
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Parex Resources Inc. (PXT-T) announced it has a definitive agreement with Frontera Energy Corp. (FEC-T) to purchase its Frontera Petroleum International Holdings B.V., which includes all of Frontera’s exploration and production assets in Colombia, for US$500-million, the assumption of US$225-million of net debt and a contingent payment of US$25-million
It said the arrangement agreement between Frontera and GeoPark Ltd. entered into on Jan. 29 has been terminated.
It said the Frontera board recommends that Frontera shareholders approve the agreement.
“The addition of Frontera E&P’s upstream business to our high-quality portfolio establishes Parex as the largest independent Colombia-focused upstream company, providing greater scale, enhanced capital efficiency, and a more resilient platform for long-term growth,” said CEO Imad Mohsen.
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Upcoming small-cap earnings:
March 12: TerrAscend Corp. (TSND-T), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP-T), Haivision Systems Inc. (HAI-T), HLS Therapeutics Inc. (HLS-T), Blackline Safety Corp. (BLN-T), Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CPH-T)
March 17: Telesat Corp. (TSAT-T)
March 19: K-Bro Linen Inc. (KBL-T), Information Services Corp. (ISC-T), Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (HPS-A-T), Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T), Well Health Technologies Corp. (WELL-T)
March 23: GO Residential REIT (GO-U-T)
March 24: Aimia Inc. (AIM-T), Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T)
March 25: Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T)
March 31: Grown Rogue International Inc. (GRIN-CN)
April 10: Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR-B-T)
April 14: AGF Management Ltd. (AGF-B-T)