12/18/25 17:00
TSX snaps losing streak
- Reuters
Canada’s main stock index rose on Thursday as investors cheered softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
The S&P/TSX Composite index ended up 190.83 points, or 0.6%, at 31,440.85 after four straight days of declines, with the market moving back in reach of the record closing high it posted last Thursday.
Canadian retail sales data, due on Friday, could offer additional clues on the state of the domestic economy. Economists expect a flat month-over-month reading after a decline of 0.7% in September.
Cyclical sectors were among the biggest gainers on the TSX, with industrials and heavily weighted financials both adding 0.9% and consumer discretionary ending 1% higher.
Energy was a drag, falling 1.5%. The price of oil settled 0.4% higher US$56.15 a barrel as investors assessed the likelihood of further U.S. sanctions against Russia and the supply risks posed by a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.
12/18/25 16:46
FedEx posts higher quarterly results, raises low end of full-year profit forecast
- Reuters
FedEx (FDX-N) posted higher second-quarter profit and revenue on Thursday and lifted the low end of its full-year earnings outlook, as peak-season pricing actions and cost-cutting efforts helped offset softer shipment volumes.
The Memphis-based package delivery company reported an adjusted profit of $1.14 billion, or $4.82 per share, for the second quarter ended November 30, up from $990 million, or $4.05 per share, a year earlier.
Shares of the company were up 1.4% to $291 in after-hours trading.
FedEx now projects annual profit of $17.80 to $19.00 per share, raising the low end of its previous $17.20 to $19.00 range.
It also lifted its 2026 revenue outlook, calling for 5% to 6% year-over-year growth, versus its earlier forecast of 4% to 6%.
Second-quarter revenue climbed to $23.5 billion, from $22.0 billion in the same period last year, extending the company’s recent sales rebound.
FedEx also reaffirmed its capital spending and cost-savings plans, and said it remains on track to spin off FedEx Freight on June 1, 2026.
12/18/25 16:35
Nike’s margin decline overshadows second-quarter revenue beat
- Reuters
Nike (NKE-N) edged past Wall Street expectations for quarterly revenue, but tariffs and the sportswear giant’s efforts to clear out aged inventory at discounts hurt margins.
Its shares were down nearly 5% in extended trading, as China remained a sore point for Nike, which recorded a 16% fall in revenue in the market, compared with a 10% drop in the previous quarter.
The company manufactures a majority of its shoes in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and China, which have been hit by tariffs on imports into the U.S.
Besides tarrifs, its efforts to reposition itself as a sports-first company, phasing out some product lines under the lifestyle category, and increased exposure at wholesalers, which typically sell at a lower price than at its own stores, have also hit the company’s margins.
The company’s gross margin for the quarter ended November 30 fell 300 basis points, compared with a 320 basis points fall in the preceding three-month period.
The company reported second-quarter revenue of $12.43 billion, above analysts’ average estimate of $12.22 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Adjusted earnings per share of 53 cents also beat estimates of 38 cents.
12/18/25 16:10
Cannabis stocks retreat after earlier rally
- Darcy Keith
Most cannabis stocks reversed course in afternoon trading, and ended lower, after an early rally spurred by President Donald Trump signing an executive order to downgrade cannabis from the most restrictive category of drugs.
The order eased some limitations on cannabis and allows for more research. But the move does not decriminalize marijuana, and its details may have disappointed some investors in the highly volatile cannabis sector, especially after a rally in recent days in anticipation of the signing. The order doesn’t address banking access and interstate commerce, longstanding constraints on U.S. cannabis businesses.
Trump’s order would move marijuana from a Schedule I drug, the same category as heroin, to a Schedule III drug, the same category as ketamine. It does not legalize the drug, as some states have done, and would not affect law enforcement’s approach to making arrests connected to marijuana, a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the order told Reuters.
Canopy Growth (WEED-T) shares closed down 12.4%. Tilray Inc. (TLRY-T) ended down 4.8% in Toronto. Aurora Cannabis (ACB-T) ended down 3.5%.
Shares of Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (CURA-T) dropped 32%, giving back much of its recent sharp gains.
12/18/25 16:02
Wall Street closes higher fueled by tech rally, soft inflation data
- Reuters
Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher on Thursday as a soft inflation report fed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while chipmaker Micron’s blowout forecast signaled strong AI demand.
The Consumer Price Index report showed that consumer prices increased less than expected in the year to November. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish month-to-month CPI changes after the 43-day shutdown of the government prevented the collection of October data.
“The constructive CPI report ... starts to ease pressure on policymakers further to potentially get more comfortable cutting rates next year,” said Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank’s Asset Management Group. “We’ll want to see follow-through next month to ensure there wasn’t too much noise from the shutdown.”
The three major indexes rebounded from three-week lows. And the Russell 2000 index, tracking rate-sensitive smallcaps, also advanced.
A jobless claims report showed new applications fell last week, reversing the prior week’s surge and suggesting labor market conditions remained stable in December. Earlier this week, an official jobs report showed U.S. job growth rebounded in November and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%.
Traders now see a 58% chance for a dovish policy move by the Fed in March, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 52.48 points, or 0.78%, to end at 6,773.91 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 311.60 points, or 1.37%, to 23,004.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.36 points, or 0.14%, to 47,955.33.
12/18/25 14:35
Cannabis stocks climb after Trump signs order to ease curbs on marijuana
- Reuters
Shares of cannabis firms rose on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order loosening federal regulations, in the biggest shift in marijuana regulation since 1970.
The decision to reclassify cannabis as a less dangerous drug does not legalize cannabis, but eases the operating environment for companies by improving access to capital, reducing tax burden and accelerating research and development.
U.S.-listed shares of Tilray (TLRY-T) gained over 6 per cent, Aurora Cannabis (ACB-T) rose nearly 9 per cent, SNDL (SNDL-Q) rose 6 per cent, and Canopy Growth (WEED-T) gained nearly 12 per cent in afternoon trading.
Trump’s order directs his attorney general to quickly move ahead with reclassifying marijuana, according to senior administration officials, a process that could lead to the psychoactive plant being listed alongside common painkillers, ketamine and testosterone as a less dangerous drug.
“Without rescheduling, I don’t think a lot of shareholders would be buying my stock and a lot of other cannabis stocks,” said Irwin Simon, CEO of Tilray Brands, ahead of the order.
12/18/25 14:31
Canadian dollar edges higher ahead of retail sales data
- Reuters
The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday but the move was limited ahead of domestic retail sales data and after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney played down the chances of sectoral trade deals.
The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent higher at 1.3770 per U.S. dollar, or 72.62 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of $1.3757 to $1.3796.
On Tuesday, the currency touched a near three-month high at $1.3728. Carney said a planned trade deal with the United States on key sectors was unlikely, saying the issue would be covered in a review of the United States-Canada-Mexico trade pact expected next year.
“We still have this looming fear about what the future is going to bring us in Q1 both on the tariff tensions and how we progress on that side of things and then whether Canadian consumers are going to spend, spend, spend,” said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco.
“The market generally wants to see a little bit more evidence of strong household consumption to buy into the fact that Canadian GDP is going to fare a little better than estimated.”
12/18/25 11:57
Gold hovers near record high after soft U.S. inflation fuels rate cut bets
- Reuters
Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering near a record high after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Spot gold rose 0.6 per cent to US$4,366.62 an ounce as of 11:45 a.m. ET. Bullion hit a record high of US$4,381.21 on October 20.
U.S. gold futures also eased 0.2 per cent to US$4,366.80. U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent year-on-year in November, data showed, falling short of the 3.1-per-cent increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Futures on the federal funds rate factored in a slightly increased chance of the Federal Reserve trimming interest rates at its January meeting, after the data.
“(The CPI) report was dollar negative and gold positive... and really, the Fed is going to remain in focus going into 2026 as the market attempts to figure out how many rate cuts are on tap for next year,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Non-yielding assets such as gold typically benefit from a lower-interest-rate environment.
12/18/25 11:27
U.S. stocks jump after an encouraging inflation update, as Micron helps AI stocks stop their slide
- The Associated Press
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Dec. 17.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
U.S. stocks are jumping on Thursday following an encouraging report on inflation that could help the Federal Reserve keep cutting interest rates next year. A strong profit report from Micron Technology (MU-Q) also helped AI stocks halt their sharp slides, at least for now.
The S&P 500 rallied 1.2 per cent and is on track for its best day in three weeks, coming off a four-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 330 points, or 0.7 per cent, and the strength for tech stocks had the Nasdaq composite up 1.7 per cent.
Some relief came from a report showing that inflation was less bad last month than economists expected. That could soothe nerves at the Fed, which is responsible for keeping inflation low and for keeping the job market strong.
Inflation is of course still higher than anyone would like, at 2.7 per cent last month, but if it creeps closer to the Fed’s target of 2 per cent, Fed officials could feel more free to cut interest rates to help a slowing job market. Wall Street loves lower interest rates because they can boost the economy and prices for investments, even if they may also worsen inflation.
To be sure, some along Wall Street said Thursday’s inflation update may not move the needle much at the Fed given how noisy economic reports have been following the U.S. government’s earlier shutdown. Next month’s update on inflation could provide a better gauge of what’s actually happening. But a better-than-expected report on inflation is nevertheless better than the alternative.
Also helping to drive the U.S. stock market was Micron Technology, the seller of memory and storage for computers, which rallied 12.9 per cent after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said each of the company’s business units enjoyed stronger revenue and made more in profit off each US$1 of that revenue.
Another winner was Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT-Q), which jumped 35.6 per cent to carve into some of its steep loss for the year so far, 69.3 per cent coming into the day. The company, which began with President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform and then moved into cryptocurrencies, financial investments and various other lines of business, is now moving into nuclear power.
12/18/25 10:41
TSX gains as tame U.S. inflation data supports rate cut bets
- Reuters
Canada’s main stock index gained on Thursday, after a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The S&P/TSX Composite index was up 333.36 points, or 1.07 per cent, at 31,583.25 at 10:39 a.m. ET, rebounding after four straight days of modest losses.
Cannabis firms Curaleaf (CURA-T), Canopy Growth (WEED-T) and Tilray (TLRY-T) jumped, extending their recent rally, fueled by expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order easing federal regulations on marijuana.
The technology index led gains across Canadian sectors, mirroring Wall Street peers, after chipmaker Micron Technology’s upbeat forecast.
Data showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in the year to November, although economists expect an acceleration in December. Investors are betting that the Fed will ease borrowing costs by about 64 basis points by the end of next year, according to LSEG data.
Choppiness in oil prices due to geopolitical concerns and a selloff on Wall Street this week have weighed on sentiment, putting Toronto’s main stock index on course for a weekly loss.
Still, the commodity-heavy index remains on track for its best year since 2009, with a nearly 27% gain, driven by a surge in precious metal prices and signs of resilience in the Canadian economy despite the country’s tariff war with the U.S.
12/18/25 10:35
AI-related software stocks get blasted
- Scott Barlow
I’ve been using Evercore ISI’s AI Enablers, Adopters and Adapters list of stocks to track the AI capex trend. The last month has seen some previously popular companies take a serious beating as we can see in the table below.
Datadog Inc., a company providing software to monitor activity within a data center is down 24 per cent in the last month although still roughly flat for the past three weeks. Veeva Systems Inc. and Elastic NV, two companies selling software to help manage data, are also down big.
The top performer on the list (not shown) is ecommerce software maker Carvana Corp., up 38 per cent, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings which was higher by 22.9 per cent.
12/18/25 09:57
More signs of speculative excess
- Scott Barlow
Margin Debt as a % of M2 Money Supply jumps to highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨
— Barchart (@barchart.com) December 18, 2025 at 9:53 AM
[image or embed]
12/18/25 09:51
REIT outlook, top picks from a CIBC analyst
- Scott Barlow
CIBC analyst Dean Wilkinson published his 2026 outlook for the domestic real estate sector,
“We think 2026 is going to look not much different from what the market has grown accustomed to over the past few years: modest returns driven predominantly by yield, heightened sensitivity to long bond rates, average FFO growth from a historical context, and a backdrop of stable operating fundamentals …
In 2026, we once again see a path to high single-digit returns across the REIT sector, coming from a current average yield of 5 per cent, FFO growth on average of 4 per cent, and unchanged multiples and NAVs (by extension, cap rates) …
By asset class, we favour the ‘Boomers’, aka Seniors Housing (CSH and SIA), followed by the ‘Consumers’, aka Retail (FCR and PMZ), Multi-family (KMP in Canada, MHC and GO in the U.S.), and Industrial (GRT). We expect our neutral view on the Office sub-sector to evolve over 2026, with operating performance set to improve, but financial improvement to lag. In our diversified financials coverage, we tilt modestly toward BAM over BN as long-term core holdings.”
12/18/25 09:35
North American stock indexes rise as U.S. inflation eases
- Reuters
North America’s main indexes opened higher on Thursday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted expectations for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
At 9:30 a.m. ET, Toronto’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.4 per cent at 31,382.60 points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 215.2 points, or 0.45 per cent, at the open to 48,101.18. The S&P 500 rose 56.6 points, or 0.84 per cent, at the open to 6,778.06, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 318.7 points, or 1.40 per cent, to 23,012.063 at the opening bell.
The benchmark and tech-heavy indexes are now on track for their biggest two-week loss since tariff concerns sparked a rout in global markets between late March and early April.
Vancouver-based Lululemon (LULU-Q) gained 7.7 per cent in early trading as a report said activist investor Elliott has acquired more than a US$1-billion stake in the athletic-wear company.
A Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 per cent on an annual basis in November, lower than an estimated 3.1-per-cent rise, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 2.6 per cent on an annual basis, compared with expectations for a 3.0-per-cent advance.
However, traders also looked for clues into whether the data could potentially be distorted by the recent government shutdown, similar to the official jobs report that was released earlier this week.
Another report showed jobless claims were 224,000 for the week ended December 13, broadly in line with estimates of 225,000.
Traders added to expectations for a January rate cut after the data and are pricing in about 60 basis points worth of rate cuts next year, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Thursday’s data comes at a time when inflation expectations have had traders price in rate hikes in other developed economies for next year, while they also scrutinized rate decisions out of the
12/18/25 09:10
Birkenstock drops after forecasting muted sales growth and profit as tariffs hurt margins
- Reuters
A pair of shoes is pictured in a window of a Birkenstock footwear store in Berlin, Germany, January 21, 2021.Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters
Birkenstock (BIRK-N) on Thursday forecast fiscal 2026 profit below Wall Street expectations and annual revenue growth lower than the last two years as U.S tariffs hurt margins and cautious consumer spending dampen demand for its sandals and clogs.
Its shares fell nearly 10 per cent premarket after the German footwear company warned of a 100 basis-point hit to its annual gross margins from U.S. import duties.
Birkenstock, known for its higher-priced “Arizona” sandals and “Boston” clogs, joins a long list of global consumer companies whose business operations have been hobbled by sweeping U.S. tariffs, while hurting shoppers with elevated prices of food, furniture and other imported goods.
The Trump administration had imposed a 15-per-cent import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached with the 27-nation bloc in July.
“In 2026...we expect to see more impact from tariffs in COGS (cost of goods sold) than we did in 2025,” Chief Financial Officer Ivica Krolo said on a post-earnings call.
The company was able to offset most of the 2025 impact with targeted price hikes, while also benefiting from shipping a big share of its goods for 2025 before the tariff hike, Krolo said.
Birkenstock makes a majority of its products in Germany and has been focusing on measures like raising prices, as well as manufacturing efficiency to counter tariff impact.
It forecasts adjusted earnings per share between 1.90 and 2.05 euros, compared with expectations of 2.08 euros, according to data compiled by LSEG.
12/18/25 08:35
U.S. stock futures rise after softer CPI boosts rate-cut bets
- Reuters
U.S. stock index futures extended their gains on Thursday, as a softer-than-anticipated inflation report reinforced market expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
A Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 per cent on an annual basis in November, compared with an estimated 3.1-per-cent rise, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The core figure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, came in at 2.6 per cent on an annual basis, versus an estimated 3-per-cent increase.
Separately, a report showed jobless claims were 224,000 for the week ended December 13, versus an estimate of 225,000.
At 8:31 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 181 points, or 0.38 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 41.25 points, or 0.61 per cent and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 268.5 points, or 1.09 per cent.
12/18/25 08:33
The rare earth metals that really matter
- Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos de Alba prioritizes rare earth metals to help investors focus on the operations most likely to get U.S. government support,
“Moreover, not all critical minerals are created equal. Certain materials – particularly those without substitutes essential for advanced defense systems [Neodymium-Praseodymium, terbium, dysprosium] high performance electronics [Gallium, Germanium] – are vital not only to national security, but also for industrial output and overall economic stability, making uninterrupted access a top priority.
Others (copper, nickel, and more), while still important to domestic industries and technological development, are already produced in the U.S. and/or western countries and would not necessarily pose a significant national crisis if supply were temporarily constrained by China. This distinction underscores the need for a more nuanced policy approach that prioritizes the minerals most critical to U.S. security and resilience”
Mr. de Alba has an “overweight” rating on MP Materials Inc. (MP-N), a provider of rare earth materials.
12/18/25 08:21
Trump Media to merge with nuclear fusion company
- The Associated Press
Trump Media & Technology (DJT-Q) will merge with a fusion power company in an all-stock deal that the companies said Thursday is valued at more than US$6-billion.
Devin Nunes, the Republican congressman who resigned in 2021 to become the CEO of Trump Media, will be co-CEO of the new company with TAE Technologies CEO Michl Binderbauer.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology, the parent company of President Donald Trump’s Truth Social media platform, have tumbled 70 per cent this year but jumped 20 per cent before the opening bell Thursday.
TAE is a private company and the merger with Trump Media would create one of the first publicly traded nuclear fusion companies.
“We’re taking a big step forward toward a revolutionary technology that will cement America’s global energy dominance for generations,“ Nunes said in a prepared statement.
12/18/25 08:17
Small caps to watch: Transat earnings and updates from NFI Group, Dye & Durham and more
- Brenda Bouw
Canada’s S&P/TSX Small Cap Index (TXTW) is up about 45 per cent over the past 52 weeks. It hit a record 1,206.84 on Dec. 12. The Russell 2000 in the United States is up about 7 per cent over the past 52 weeks. It hit a record of 2,595.98 on Dec. 12.
- Companies mentioned include: ATS Corp., Bird Construction, Canopy Growth, Coveo Solutions, Dream Industrial, Dye & Durham, Enghouse Systems, NFI Group, Organigram Global, Pollard Banknote, Quipt Home Medical, Talisker Resources and Transat AT
- Read more: Small caps to watch
12/18/25 08:04
Transat reports first annual profit since 2018
- Eric Atkins
Transat AT Inc. (TRZ-T) posted its first annual profit since 2018 on Thursday, as revenue rose and a government agreement reduced its pandemic bailout debt.
The Montreal-based operator of Air Transat swung to a $242-million profit, or $6.06 a share, in the fiscal year ended on Oct. 31, compared with a loss of $114-million ($2.94) in 2024. Revenue rose by 3.5 per cent to $3.4-billion.
Transat chief executive officer Annick Guérard said new routes and the debt refinancing helped the airline overcome a volatile economy and the downtime of aircraft from the Pratt and Whitney engine recall.
“We have delivered on the objectives set for fiscal 2025 and continue to make progress toward the full execution of our business plan,” Ms. Guérard said in a statement accompanying the annual and fourth-quarter results, which were released before markets opened.
For the three months ending on Oct. 31, Transat lost $12.5-million (31 cents), compared with a profit of $41.2 million ($1.05) in the same period a year ago. Revenue fell by 2.2 per cent to $771.6 million, compared with the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Read more: Transat results
12/18/25 07:42
Top picks in precious metals stocks from a RBC analyst
- Scott Barlow
“Royalty valuations at spot have compressed sharply since September ; producer valuation has corrected from expansion post -spring . At spot gold prices, our royalty coverage trades at 1.66 times P/NAV [price to net asset value] compared to 1.83x/1.86x on a 1-year/3-year basis. Our senior producer coverage trades at 1.11x P/NAV, compared to 1 .05x/1.23x on a 1Y/3Y basis . At spot gold, producers are trading at forward 12 -month FCF/EV [free cash flow to enterprise value] yields of 7.4 per cent, while royalty companies are trading at 4.1 per cent.
“Notable company valuations : Discounted: Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, OR Royalties . Premium: Barrick Mining, Triple Flag.
“Select commentary:
“OR Royalties Inc., OR-T: After steady valuation expansion throughout 2025 , OR has underperformed alongside broader royalty group valuation compression . At current levels, we view the company’s 1-3-year outlook as compelling and continue to highlight OR as a best idea.
“Royal Gold Inc., RGLD-Q: Valuation compressed over the course of 2025 , further compounded by RGLD’s SAND acquisition announcement in July . More recently, RGLD shares have begun to close the valuation gap with its larger royalty peers, while shares still trade at a discount .
“Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., AEM-T: RBC previously revised our recommendation to SP, noting rising capital spending in upcoming years and consensus estimate risks into year -end guidance . However, we emphasize that AEM’s premium has already compressed relative to its peers in recent months .
“Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., TFPM-T: Valuation over 2025 has steadily improved, while peer royalty companies have compressed in valuation . TFPM valuation trades at the upper end of royalty valuation ranges, now in line with peer leaders FNV and WPM
“Barrick Mining Corp., ABX-T: Barrick shares have revalued higher post -strategic alternatives under evaluation and a resolution of the impasse in Mali . Shares continue to trade at a discount vs . peers, albeit a significantly narrower gap than historical levels”
12/18/25 07:32
Global crude surplus means lower prices in 2026
- Scott Barlow
Soft crude prices will remain in 2026, says BofA Securities commodity and derivatives strategist Francisco Blanch,
“A global projected surplus of 2 million barrels per day means that crude oil prices should average substantially less in 2026 than they did in 2025, but the scale of the price drop will determine how low U.S. shale output goes, in our view. Heading into next year, we remain only somewhat bearish on prices despite the large projected surplus, as we do not believe it is in OPEC’s self-interest to drive Brent below $50/bbl. Thus, while we see rising inventories and Brent averaging about $60/bbl next year compared to almost $69/bbl this year, we do not see a major crash unless conditions change. Similarly, we project WTI crude oil prices to average $57/bbl compared to $65/bbl this year. Given this price deck, US shale oil production may contract by 70 thousand b/d or 1 per cent year-over-year in 2026. What factors could lead to a more substantial drop in US shale output? We see mainly three downside oil price risks: peace in Ukraine, a pro-market government in Venezuela, and a worsening economic outlook.”
12/18/25 07:30
Bank of England lowers rates after tight vote but signals caution about further cuts
- Reuters
The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday after a narrow vote by policymakers but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further.
After a sharp drop in inflation in data this week and a new forecast from BoE staff that growth will stagnate in late 2025, five Monetary Policy Committee members voted to lower the BoE’s benchmark rate for the fourth time in 2025 to 3.75 per cent from 4.0 per cent.
The four other members supported no change as they worried about the potential for Britain inflation’s rate - still the highest among the Group of Seven economies - to remain too high.
Governor Andrew Bailey changed his view and voted for a cut, tipping the balance on the committee.
“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward,” Bailey said in a statement. “But with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call.”
UK equities dipped, leaving both the blue-chip FTSE 100 and the mid-cap FTSE 250 flat on the day.
12/18/25 07:18
Oil prices steady as market assesses reports of possible U.S. sanctions on Russia, Venezuela blockade
- Reuters
Oil prices steadied on Thursday as investors assessed the likelihood of further U.S. sanctions against Russia and the supply risks posed by a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.
Brent crude dropped 1 US cent to US$59.67 per barrel at 6:33 a.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 5 US cents at US$55.99 per barrel.
U.S. intentions to impose more sanctions against Russia and its threatened blockade of tankers under sanctions and carrying Venezuelan oil pushed prices higher, PVM analyst John Evans said.
On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is preparing another round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector in the event Moscow does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, citing people familiar with the matter. A White House official told Reuters President Donald Trump had not made any decisions on Russian sanctions.
Further measures targeting Russian oil could pose an even bigger supply risk to the market than Trump’s announcement on Tuesday that the U.S. would blockade tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela, ING analysts said in a note.
The European Union on Thursday imposed sanctions on 41 more ships in Russia’s shadow fleet, taking the total of designated vessels to almost 600.
Meanwhile, Britain imposed sanctions on 24 individuals and entities as part of its Russia sanctions regime, including on Russian oil companies Tatneft and Russneft, a government notice showed on Thursday.
12/18/25 07:02
Thursday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
- David Leeder
National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine thinks predicts earnings per share revisions will be the “primary driver” of Canadian banks of 2026 with the sector currently trading at 13.3 times forward EPS, which is a near record level.
“In terms of positioning for EPS revision, we believe a combination of factors is optimal: 1) a relatively lower bar in 2026 for the Capital Markets business, via a relatively lower contribution to fiscal 2025 consolidated PTPP growth; and 2) relatively lower consolidated revenue growth forecasts in 2025,” he said. “We acknowledge that the former could beget the latter.”
- Read more: Thursday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
- Companies mentioned include: Alaris Equity, Aya Gold & Silver, BMO, Blackline Safety, CIBC, CN Rail, Canadian Pacific KC, Computer Modelling Group, EQB, Manulife, Premium Brands, RBC, Scotia Bank, Sun Life, TD Bank, Tecsys, Trisura Group
12/18/25 06:36
Lululemon surges as Elliott takes a US$1-billion stake
- Reuters
A Lululemon store is pictured in Toronto, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025.Laura Proctor/The Canadian Press
Activist investor Elliott Management has amassed a stake of more than US$1-billion in Vancouver-based Lululemon Athletica (LULU-Q) and is lining up a potential CEO candidate as it pushes to revive the struggling athletic apparel retailer, a source told Reuters on Wednesday.
Elliott has been working closely for months with veteran retail executive Jane Nielsen, former chief financial officer and chief operations officer at Ralph Lauren (RL-N), and views her as a potential CEO candidate, the source added.
The hedge fund is now one of Lululemon’s biggest investors, with the move coming amid a busy year for Elliott that already includes a recent investment in PepsiCo and an earlier proxy fight at Phillips 66.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the stake. Elliott and Lululemon did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
Shares of Lululemon were up nearly 5 per cent at US$217.23 in premarket trading on Thursday.
Last week, Lululemon said CEO Calvin McDonald would step down in January after seven years in the role, without naming a successor. Its share price rose after news of McDonald’s impending departure but has dropped about 60 per cent from its peak two years ago.
12/18/25 05:32
Micron surges on upbeat profit forecast as chip prices soar
- Reuters
Micron Technology’s (MU-Q) shares rose 9 per cent in premarket trading on Thursday after the U.S. chipmaker delivered an outsized quarterly profit forecast, underscoring its leadership in the high-bandwidth memory chips market as prices surge.
Micron is one of only three major suppliers of high-bandwidth memory chips, alongside Samsung and South Korea’s SK Hynix. The chips are pivotal for training and deploying generative AI models.
The company forecast second-quarter adjusted profit at nearly double Wall Street expectations, underscoring how Micron is capitalizing on a global supply crunch for memory chips amid booming demand from data centres, propelling its shares higher by about 168 per cent so far this year.
In a conference call with investors, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said he expects memory markets to remain tight past 2026 and that in the medium term, Micron expects to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers.
Micron’s chief business officer declined to specify which customers would not receive the chips they sought.
“With supply tightness at unprecedented levels, MU is having to strike a fine balance between allocating wafer capacity to high-value bits while also providing adequate supply of less value-added bits to key strategic customers,” J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note.
Shares of chipmakers AMD (AMD-Q) and Nvidia (NVDA-Q) rose nearly 1 per cent each in premarket trade.
12/18/25 05:14
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global markets climbed in cautious trading ahead of European central bank interest rate announcements and crucial U.S. inflation data.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major U.S. markets closed lower yesterday as AI spending jitters weighed on tech stocks.
TSX futures edged lower after Canada’s main stock market closed down yesterday.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Transat AT Inc. and BlackBerry Ltd.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Accenture PLC, Cintas Corp., FedEx Corp. and Nike Inc.
“Softer [U.S. inflation] figures should keep [Federal Reserve rate] cut bets alive, supporting equities and bonds and weighing on the dollar, while stronger-than-expected data would threaten dovish Fed expectations, weighing on equities and bonds and boosting the dollar,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.28 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.32 per cent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.19 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.36 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.03 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.12 per cent.
- Read more: Before the Bell
12/18/25 05:14
Stocks recover from AI-led bruising; central banks in focus
- Reuters
Global shares crept higher on Thursday, after the tech sector got hit by renewed concern over AI spending, and investors prepared for a series of central bank meetings that will probably reflect the divergence in worldwide monetary policy.
Geopolitical tensions are roiling commodities markets. Oil prices extended a rebound from five-year lows after President Donald Trump ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Silver hit a new record that helped pull up gold.
Sterling fell for a second day, after an unexpected drop in UK inflation on Wednesday all but guaranteed a rate cut from the Bank of England later on Thursday.
The European Central Bank also delivers its policy decision on Thursday and is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, while traders expect Japan to raise rates on Friday but are less certain about the pace of tightening next year.
Shares in Europe rose broadly, lifting the STOXX 600 by 0.1 per cent, while U.S. stock futures rose 0.3-0.6 per cent, suggesting there may be some respite for the benchmark indexes after Wednesday’s wash-out.
Concern over record AI spending resurfaced after Oracle announced an equity deal to support a data centre project would not include a key partner, Blue Owl Capital. Its shares tumbled 5.4 per cent, meaning they have now lost 50 per cent of their value since mid-September, when a deal with OpenAI sparked a 35 per cent one-day rise.
12/18/25 04:30
Wednesday markets recap: Stocks fall as AI funding jitters drag tech stocks
- Reuters, Globe staff
An Amazon Web Services AI data centre in New Carlisle, Ind., in October. Worries about the tech sector taking on debt to develop AI have discouraged risk-taking.Noah Berger/Reuters
Major North American indexes closed lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq sinking to three-week lows as nagging worries about the artificial intelligence trade weighed on technology stocks.
Oracle ORCL-N dropped 5.4 per cent after a report said the cloud company’s largest data-centre partner Blue Owl Capital will not back a US$10-billion deal for its next facility. Amazon.com AMZN-Q fell 0.6 per cent after reports said the company is in talks to invest about US$10-billion in ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
Worries about the broader technology sector taking on more debt to develop artificial intelligence have discouraged risk-taking lately.
AI bellwether Nvidia NVDA-Q fell 3.8 per cent and chipmaker Broadcom AVGO-Q dropped 4.5 per cent, sending a broader chips index down 3.9 per cent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 228.29 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 47,885.97. The S&P 500 lost 78.83 points, or 1.16 per cent, to 6,721.43. The Nasdaq Composite lost 418.14 points, or 1.81 per cent, to 22,693.32.
Alphabet GOOGL-Q shares fell 3.2 per cent after a Reuters report said its Google unit is taking on a new initiative to erode Nvidia’s software advantage, and working with Meta META-Q to do so.
In Toronto, the S&P/TSX Composite index closed down 0.04 per cent to 31,250.02 points, continuing its four-day streak of losses.