Market update
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 289.24 points, or 0.61%, to 47,417.27, the S&P 500 lost 5.68 points, or 0.08%, to 6,775.80 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 19.03 points, or 0.08%, to 22,716.14.
- The S&P/TSX composite index ended down 150.82 points, or 0.5% at 33,119.83 points, after two straight days of modest gains. The technology sector fell 2.9%, with shares of Constellation Software down 8.1%. The materials group declined 1% and consumer staples ended 1.5% lower. Three of the 10 major sectors ended higher, including energy, which advanced 2.6%.
- The focus for markets remained on energy as further attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply-disruption fears. The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves into the global market in a bid to bolster supplies and calm markets. But analysts said the release of reserves was inadequate to ease those concerns. Brent futures rose $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session up $3.80, or 4.6%, at $87.25 a barrel.
- Gold prices edged lower, weighed down by an uptick in the U.S. dollar and looming inflation concerns that bolstered expectations of higher interest rates. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2% lower at US$5,179.10 per ounce.
- Canadian bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries after U.S. consumer prices picked up in February. The 10-year was up 7.4 basis points at 3.484%, marking its highest level since January 2.
03/11/26 17:24
Bird Construction reports mixed results
- Brenda Bouw
Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T) reported lower revenue and earnings for its fourth quarter ended Dec. 31.
After markets closed on Wednesday, the company reported revenue of $877-million compared to $936.7-million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The result was below expectations of $907.1-million, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Its net loss was $14-million or 25 cents per share compared to $32.5-million or 59 cents per share a year earlier.
Adjusted earnings were $31.8-million or 57 cents per share compared to $37.3-million or 67 cents a year earlier. The result was ahead of expectations of 54 cents.
03/11/26 16:50
Don’t assume coast is clear for oil prices: BMO
- Darcy Keith
Oil prices only moved about 4% Wednesday, with sense of calmness returning to the market. BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter cautions against complacency.
“While oil prices have calmed somewhat after the wild swings on Monday, and are well off that day’s highs, don’t assume the coast is clear. Looking back at past serious disruptions in the oil market reveal that it can takes weeks, or even months, for the market to fully sort out the landscape — and even more so this time, given the fluid timeline on the conflict. Using Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an example, note that after an initial peak — 12 days after the invasion — prices then climbed to a fresh high three months later, before truly relenting. (Gasoline prices peaked at the same time.) True, every oil shock has been different, and this one is unique in its own way, but the point is that aftershocks can still be very powerful," Porter said in a late day note.
03/11/26 16:32
Trump says will reduce strategic petroleum reserve a little: report
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that Washington will “reduce it a little bit” when asked whether he was looking at the threshold for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an interview with Cincinnati’s Local 12.
- Reuters
03/11/26 16:27
Aecon issues new equity through bought deal
- Brenda Bouw
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) announced a $150-million bought-deal financing.
After markets closed on Wednesday, Aecon said it has an agreement to sell about 3.8 million shares to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets and TD Securities Inc. for $39.25 each.
The stock closed at $41.45 on Wednesday.
Aecon said it granted the underwriters an overallotment option to purchase up to an additional 573,300 shares on the same terms for approximately $23-million.
Aecon said it intends to use the net proceeds to repay amounts drawn under its revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes.
03/11/26 16:10
Trump to invoke emergency law for California oil producer Sable: report
U.S. President Donald Trump plans to invoke emergency law for Sable Offshore (SOC-N) as it looks to restart production from a cluster of offshore platforms in California, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
Shares of Sable rose 16.3% to $16.75 in afternoon trading.
Trump is preparing to summon authorities under the Defense Production Act to preempt state laws and ease permitting for Sable, the report added.
The planned order would also pave the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast, in a bid to that would allow Trump to ease the global crude supply crunch spurred by his war with Iran, Bloomberg said in the report.
Sable Offshore and the White House Office did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
03/11/26 15:38
BoC’s next rate move ‘almost certain’ to be a hike, but it won’t happen for a while: Capital Economics
- Darcy Keith
Capital Economics, in a new report today, says the Bank of Canada’s next move in interest rates “now looks almost certain” to be a hike given the spike in oil prices and its impact on inflation. But it doesn’t expect any move by the bank for a while.
Money markets agree. Implied interest rate probabilities in overnight swap markets today suggest a roughly 20% chance of a rate hike by this June’s policy meeting, according to Bloomberg data. And traders are fully pricing in a quarter point hike by the end of this year.
Capital Economics’ North America economist Bradley Saunders still thinks the bar for any tightening this year remains high.
“Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would respond with rate hikes so soon before CUSMA renegotiations get underway in earnest,” says the economist.
“In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Bank estimated an output gap in the range of -1.5% to -0.5% – too large for even our most growth-positive scenario to comfortably close. Moreover, even if the boost to GDP were larger than we expect, it would not lay the groundwork for a more sustained economic recovery given we do not expect much of a response in investment, and the capital-intensive nature of the oil sector means there would be little benefit to employment or wage growth.”
“The best steer on how the Bank might react to a more sustained rise in oil prices comes from over a decade ago, when policymakers left the policy rate at 1.0% from 2010 to 2014 even as WTI rose from $75 to $100. Much like now (and unlike during the previous oil price spike in 2022), this was a time when core inflation was under control, the Bank estimated a sustained output gap, and an existential crisis – then the euro-zone debt crisis, today the upending of the US trading relationship – urged policymakers to act with caution.”
“That all said, were lasting damage to Gulf energy infrastructure to cause WTI to average nearer to $125 this year (as in our third scenario), hikes would simply be unavoidable,” Capital Economics said.
03/11/26 15:16
Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say
Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two sources familiar with the matter said, in a move likely to complicate the reopening of the narrow waterway, an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas.
Exports of oil and LNG through the strategic chokepoint along Iran’s coast have effectively been halted by the war launched 12 days ago by the United States and Israel, helping to drive a surge in world energy prices.
One source said the mines were deployed “in the last few days” and that most of their locations were known. But the source declined to say how the U.S. planned to deal with them.
CNN first reported the mining of the strait on Tuesday.
Iran has long threatened to retaliate against any military attack by mining the strait.
The U.S. military says it has targeted Iranian mine-laying vessels, eliminating 16 of them on Tuesday. But the U.S. Navy has so far declined to provide protective escorts to commercial ships through the strait.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday demanded that Iran immediately remove any mines deployed in the strait and he said that it would face unspecified military consequences if it failed to do so.
- Reuters
03/11/26 14:28
Time to buy cybersecurity stocks: Rosenberg Research
- Darcy Keith
Rosenberg Research is recommending investors buy cybersecurity stocks, believing they were unfairly punished during the recent AI scare trade.
Software stocks have faced a broad sell-off this year, ignited in part by fears that artificial intelligence will do the job of things like coding and even problem solving.
“But the de-rating has also become too indiscriminate,” said Mehmet Beceren and Zackary Young, analysts with Rosenberg Research, in a report today. “Software is increasingly being treated as one trade, even though AI does not affect every business model in the same way. Cybersecurity stands out as one of the clearest cases where the market may be over-generalizing. The question is no longer whether AI disrupts software. It does. The more important question is which parts of software become more essential as AI raises the cost of failure.”
Cybersecurity, the authors argue, is different. AI is not just lowering the cost of writing code, but also increasing threats and making them harder to manage.
“Security is not simply another workflow tool that can be rebuilt internally with better coding assistance. Its value lies in continuous visibility, shared monitoring, threat intelligence, and real-time response across networks and user endpoints. Those are capabilities that become more valuable, not less, when attacks move faster and the attack surface widens due to AI,” they said.
“This is visible in the latest news flow, company reports, and earnings calls. To cite a few examples, Zscaler’s (ZS-Q) management says that they are pushing into AI Security, AI Analytics, browser security, and data security modules. CrowdStrike (CRWD-Q) sees near-term cost pressures from AI, but the company also sees strong demand tailwinds for its services. Cloudflare (NET-N) is benefiting from AI traffic running through its network, creating additional demand for network and data security. Fortinet (FTNT-Q), by contrast, looks less exposed to AI commoditization itself and more exposed to the longer-run shift from appliance-heavy security toward cloud-delivered models.”
“The key point is that cyber is not moving in one direction only. AI is pressuring some cost structures, but it is also widening product opportunities and deepening customer needs.”
The Rosenberg Research analysts believe it is a good time to consider some cybersecurity stocks or an ETF such as the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG-Q).
03/11/26 14:01
Rosy U.S. earnings outlook in need of a rethink in light of oil’s rally
U.S. companies face structurally higher oil prices this year even if the Iran war ends soon, meaning investors may need to rethink those sunny 2026 corporate earnings forecasts.
Heading into the year, the consensus 2026 outlook for oil was fairly bearish, while the earnings forecasts for Wall Street were pretty optimistic.
The latter hasn’t changed. As of Friday, full-year 2026 earnings growth estimates, according to LSEG data, were nearly 16%, up from 14% last year and 12% the year before.
However, those rosy outlooks assume an average oil price this year close to US$60 per barrel – an expectation that disappeared into thin air with the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent supply disruption.
While oil will likely drift lower when the war eventually subsides, the damage is done. The finely tuned global energy system has been upended, infrastructure has been hit and the expected supply glut has evaporated.
Average oil prices this year will almost certainly be much higher than businesses were budgeting for on January 1. Companies will absorb part of that increase, and consumers will certainly feel the pinch. Either way, corporate earnings will be squeezed.
Equity strategists at Goldman Sachs reckon the direct impact of “modestly” higher oil prices on S&P 500 earnings should be fairly muted, but an extended period of supply disruption or uncertainty poses much greater risk to economic activity. For every one percentage point decline in real U.S. GDP growth, S&P 500 earnings per share could fall 3-4%, they posit.
Other estimates suggest a 30% rise in oil prices could knock as much as 4% off S&P 500 earnings, with the pain felt most acutely in transportation, industrial, and consumer discretionary.
There’s a flip side, of course. Sustained higher oil prices boost energy sector profits, and double-digit earnings growth for the sector is not out of the question. But energy only accounts for 4–5% of total S&P 500 earnings and thus is unlikely to offset the hit to margins elsewhere.
- Jamie McGeever, Reuters
03/11/26 13:33
Aluminum rallies, focus on supply disruptions from Middle East conflict
Aluminum prices rallied on Wednesday as market focus shifted to global supply losses from the Middle East conflict.
Benchmark aluminum on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.1% higher at $3,444 a metric ton at 1704 GMT. Earlier this week, it touched $3,544 a ton, its highest since April 2022.
The war has effectively frozen shipments due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened global supplies of aluminum used in transport, construction and packaging. The Middle East is home to around seven million metric tons of aluminum smelting capacity, or roughly 9% of the global total. Last week, Aluminium Bahrain or Alba, which runs one of the world’s biggest smelters, declared force majeure warning customers of delays to shipments, while Qatari smelter Qatalum started to shut down.
Reinforcing concerns about supplies are aluminum stocks in LME-approved warehouses. Canceled warrants or metal earmarked for delivery stood at 177,325, or 40% of the total on Tuesday, compared with 9% on February 27, before the turmoil in the Middle East started. Worries about tight aluminum supplies have created a premium or backwardation for the cash contract over the three-month forward on the LME.
Industrial metals overall are under pressure from concerns about global economic growth as a result of soaring oil prices and a firmer dollar. A rising U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could subdue demand.
Copper Wednesday 0.7% to $13,046 a ton, zinc slipped 0.9% to $3,314, lead retreated 0.3% to $1,937, tin was down 1% to $49,950 and nickel gained 1.4% to $17,725.
- Reuters
03/11/26 13:15
HSBC strategist says go maximum overweight global equities
- Scott Barlow
HSBC chief multi-asset strategist Max Kettner is now “maximum overweight” global equities with the belief that the peaks in investor fear are now in the rearview mirror.
Mr. Kettner firmly believes that the outlook is as bad as it’s going to get right now and indicators are set to improve. In his words, “For us to turn bearish on risk assets now, we’d have to expect things to get even worse from here, not just stay the same ... we are now maximum overweight and fade the [negative] moves from the last few days.” The market is poised to climb, requiring only news that is slightly less bad than last week’s, he said in a Tuesday report.
The strategist points to the CBOE Volatility (VIX) index futures as a sign of peak fear. He notes that backwardation, the extent that future date derivative prices point to lower levels for the index, is as severe as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Futures markets, in predicting lower levels for this primary gauge of equity market volatility in the near future, clearly expect that investor sentiment is set to improve.
Mr. Kettner expects flare-ups in military activity in the Middle East but believes that U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about the imminent end of the conflict signal a change in tone, even if the U.S. has trouble extracting their defence assets from the region in the near term.
The regional markets that have held up best since the initial bombing of Iran at the end of last month are set to underperform, according to HSBC, and this is not great news for the TSX. Canadian equities, along with Brazil and the U.S., have “outperformed a little too much,” according to Mr. Kettner, and can expect less of a rebound if the conflict ends. (The TSX has had the benefit of a heavy weighting in energy stocks. The Brazilian benchmark no doubt benefited from the outsized influence of oil and gas giant Petrobras SA).
The markets that were hit hardest since late February were Korea, Japan and Taiwan and the strategist expects these market to recover most quickly as the Middle East situation cools. The Korean and Taiwanese markets are dominated by technology stocks - Samsung and SK Hynix in Korea and Taiwan Semiconductor in Taiwan - so this is also very much a call on the resumption of the AI rally, at least initially.
In terms of global equity sectors, materials stocks sold off hardest in the past two weeks and Mr. Kettner expects them to bounce higher. Canadian investors will have to be careful with this information. Domestically the materials index is basically a precious metals benchmark thanks to Barrick, Agnico Eagle and other gold producers, but in the U.S., for example, the materials index includes industrial gases, paint, construction aggregates, water management and food processing.
The strategy report also contained recommendations on foreign exchange levels but I doubt Canadian investors will be too interested to buy the Egyptian pound as it suggests.
Mr. Kettner is not expecting the breakout of broader world peace - bad news from the Middle East is still likely in the cards - but he expects that the market outlook will trend positive from this point and that the stocks hit hardest since the bombing are the ones to acquire in the coming days.
“Maximum overweight” is a bold prediction and shows a level of conviction rarely seen at major investment firms.
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03/11/26 11:37
TSX slides as weakness in tech, materials counters energy gains
Canada’s main stock index was lower on Wednesday, as declining technology and mining shares outweighed gains in energy, while investors continued monitoring developments in the Middle East.
At 11:36 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 189.93 points, or 0.57 per cent, at 33,080.72
Energy was the top gainer, rising 2.4 per cent as crude oil prices remained elevated even after the International Energy Agency recommended the release of 400 million barrels of oil to restrain prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains choked.
“Oil is likely to hover in the mid-$80s to around $90 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, but if tankers can sail through, you could see WTI drop back into the low $70s almost immediately,” said Allan Small, senior investment adviser at Allan Small Financial Group.
“I’d be very surprised to see it above $100 without something new and negative from the war.”
Offsetting gains, information technology stocks fell 2 per cent, while materials lost 1 per cent, as prices of most base and precious metals came under pressure.
The benchmark TSX is down about 3 per cent from levels seen before the conflict that has sent crude prices soaring and lifted Canadian energy stocks. The energy sector is the best-performing sector so far this year, while information technology has lagged.
- Reuters
03/11/26 10:53
Non-prime lender Goeasy extends slide after major charge-off, forecast withdrawal
Canadian non-prime consumer lender goeasy’s shares slumped 20 per cent on Wednesday after more than halving in value in the previous session, as the company flagged a charge-off of about $178-million and write-downs tied to its LendCare unit.
The division mainly lends to customers with weaker financial profiles and focuses on financing in the auto and powersports businesses. LendCare, which was acquired in 2021, had expanded its loan book through third-party merchants.
Goeasy on Tuesday also pulled its forecast for the quarter and the next three years. The company also plans to address a recently identified error in LendCare’s historical reporting practices when it reports after markets close on March 25.
See also: Wednesday's analyst upgrades and downgrades
“We view the development as unambiguously negative for the near-term financial outlook and a major blow to management credibility and investor sentiment,” analysts at Scotiabank said in a note.
Total net charge-offs across its units are expected to be about $331-million , the company said. It also expects its allowance for credit losses on gross consumer loans receivable to rise by about $86 -million in the fourth quarter, from the level reported on September 30.
“We expect pressure on net charge-offs and higher delinquency reporting for the coming quarters, before an anticipated improvement in 2027,” said Felix Wu, who was named permanent Chief Financial Officer on Tuesday.
- Reuters
03/11/26 10:48
IEA proposes record release of strategic stocks in response to Iran war oil price surge
- Jeffrey Jones and Emma Graney
International Energy Agency member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves into the global market – the largest-ever move in its history – in a bid to bolster supplies and calm markets amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
The release, announced by IEA executive director Fatih Birol Wednesday morning, is in response to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The narrow waterway normally provides a route to market for 15 million barrels per day of the world’s crude oil supply and another 5 million barrels per day of oil products – roughly a quarter of the world’s oil trade via sea.
Without sufficient routes to market and with no more available storage, Middle East oil producers have started to reduce production, Dr. Birol said. There have also been attacks and damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions to refinery operations, with “major implications” for jet fuel and diesel supplies, he said.
Oil prices have surged to near four-year highs since U.S. and Israeli forces began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.
Dr. Birol said while the barrels being released aim to alleviate the immediate effects of the current disruption in markets, “the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the strait.”
Details on how the oil will make it to market will be released soon, he said, and the IEA will continue to monitor the situation and make further recommendations if need be.
03/11/26 09:36
TSX opens slightly lower as investors await IEA decision on crude release
Canada’s main stock index opened slightly down on Wednesday as investors awaited a pivotal announcement from the International Energy Agency on a potential release of crude oil reserves, while assessing the latest U.S. inflation data.
At 9:31 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.3 per cent at 33,212.91 points.
Group of Seven energy ministers met Tuesday at IEA headquarters in Paris. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said afterwards they had discussed all available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market.
The largest-ever previous collective release of emergency stocks by IEA member countries was 182.7 million barrels, in the wake of the energy shock prompted by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
IEA members currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.
Wall Street’s main indexes opened mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed a key inflation report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 15.7 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 47690.76. The S&P 500 rose 8.6 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 6790.09, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 74.2 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 22771.267
Inflation stayed stubbornly elevated last month as gas prices rose in a snapshot of what consumer prices looked like before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran sent energy costs soaring.
Consumer prices rose 2.4 per cent in February compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, matching January’s 2.4-per-cent increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices climbed 2.5 per cent from a year ago, also matching January’s level, which was the lowest in five years. Both figures are above the Federal Reserve’s 2-per-cent target.
- Reuters and The Associated Press
03/11/26 08:36
U.S. consumer prices increase as expected in February
U.S. consumer prices picked up in February as the cost of gasoline increased in anticipation of an escalating war in the Middle East, and with the conflict driving up oil prices, a further rise in inflation is expected in March.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 per cent last month after gaining 0.2 per cent in January, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI climbing 0.3 per cent. Gasoline prices in the CPI report had declined for two straight months.
Prices at the pump have jumped by more than 18 per cent to US$3.54 per gallon since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran started at the end of February, data from motorist advocacy group AAA showed.
Oil prices shot up well above US$100 per barrel, before pulling back on Tuesday after President Donald Trump stated the war could end soon. The CPI also rose amid the continued, but staggered pass-through from Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies that have since been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
In the 12 months through February, the CPI advanced 2.4 per cent matching January’s increase, and reflecting last year’s high readings dropping out of the calculation.
The Federal Reserve tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes for its 2-per-cent inflation target, and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week.
- Reuters
03/11/26 08:06
Conflicting signs in the rental market leaves one recommended apartment REIT at Scotiabank
- Scott Barlow
Scotiabank REIT analyst Mario Saric is dealing with contradictory data in the apartment sector,
“OUR TAKE: Hard to Say. Yesterday’s Rentals.ca February asking rent data fell 1.3 per cent month-over-month, double 3-month avg. and worse than negative 0.9 per cent last year; National 1-and-2 BR each fell 0.6 per cent. That said, specific REIT markets (which we estimate = 65 per cent of Canada) show an avg. 0.8 per cent positive asking rent growth, ranging from BEI (0.6 per cent) to MI (1.0 per cent), well above the 0-per-cent 3-month avg, with Toronto, Halifax, & Montreal at 2-per-cent growth. The avg. 0.8-per-cent growth is contrary to the 10 basis points higher implied cap rate vs. last month, though spreads to 10-year remain mostly tighter-than-avg. We’re left scratching our heads a bit and feeling like an Economist. The individual market data looks encouraging (i.e., for a Spring rent inflection) and consistent with BEI new lease spreads getting better through Q1, but the aggregate national data is getting worse; we’ve reached out to Rentals.ca to help bridge the gap (could be new construction rents, data can be volatile m/m, methodology change). We’re still preaching patience. Our odds to a concrete trough Spring asking rent had fallen YTD, and we still see the Apartment REITs as a 2H/26+ story. KMP [Killam Apartment REIT, KMP-UN-T] is our only SO [’sector outperform’], but even there, we think you have time.”
03/11/26 07:59
Rising energy prices roil global bonds as traders tear up rate cut bets
Global bond markets were under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, as the U.S.-Iran war drove up oil prices and traders increased their bets that central banks would have to abandon rate cuts this year and instead consider hiking.
Short-dated bond yields - which are sensitive to interest-rate expectations - shot higher as bond prices tumbled in the euro zone and Britain. Yields also rose in the United States.
“What the rates markets is saying is that this war leads to a prolonged rise in oil, and the path that central banks are on will have to shift to a more hawkish one,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Energy prices have risen dramatically this week as flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a halt and Iran has hit its neighbors’ exporting infrastructure.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that the war was “very complete” helped cool prices on Tuesday, but they were volatile on Wednesday and last up around 2% following reports that vessels were struck by projectiles in the key Strait of Hormuz.
Prices neared US$120 a barrel on Monday and last traded at around US$90, up roughly 25 per cent since the start of the war.
Germany’s 2-year bond yield rose as much as 8 basis points, Britain’s and Italy’s jumped more than 12 bps, while those in the United States climbed 3 bps. Longer-dated bond yields also rose.
- Reuters
03/11/26 07:56
Morgan Stanley offers free research for DIY investors
- Scott Barlow
I don’t want this to sound like an advertisement for a global financial giant that doesn’t need any help, but DIY investors might find useful information at the newly opened Morgan Stanley Institute (even if they need to watch for bias towards Morgan Stanley clients and capital markets activity),
“Today marks the launch of The Morgan Stanley Institute—a new platform that draws expertise from across the firm and transforms it into integrated thought leadership, providing actionable solutions for financial decision makers. As clients and investors face increasingly complex challenges, The Institute is designed to meet those needs, leveraging Morgan Stanley’s intellectual capital to deliver premium, cross-divisional insights through a differentiated, content-rich platform. Each perspective we offer is rooted in long-term, thematic discussions that go beyond short-term market noise, helping shape smarter investment decisions.”
03/11/26 07:49
Hedge funds pour hopes into tech even as AI jitters rattle
Global hedge funds’ most crowded long trades in February centered on technology stocks, data from securities lending provider Hazeltree showed on Wednesday.
The S&P info tech index, which tracks some of the biggest global technology firms, has fallen around 4 per cent so far this year. The broader S&P index is down almost 1 per cent.
Here are some details about hedge fund positioning in tech:
* Global tech companies such as Tencent, Nvidia and Microsoft attracted high amounts of hedge fund buying in February, said the Hazeltree report.
* Hazeltree’s report is based on data from 600 asset managers tracking 16,000 global stocks.
* Hedge funds have continued to buy technology stocks through the beginning of this month to March 6, separate data from a Goldman Sachs client note also showed.
* U.S. tech was the most bought region in the sector, said Goldman’s note.
* Hedge fund buying in software companies mainly comprised of short covering, when traders must exit losing bets that wagered the asset prices would fall, said Goldman.
* Hedge funds held crowded short tech stocks in February including in payments firm, Wise, file storage company Dropbox and AI scaler, Oracle, showed the Hazeltree data. The firms did not immediately respond to requests for contact.
- Reuters
03/11/26 07:46
Biggest stock winners from PM Carney’s trip to India
- Scott Barlow
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands following the presentation of agreements and joint statements in New Delhi, India on Monday, March 2.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
RBC Capital Markets analyst Walter Spracklin identified the biggest domestic stock winners from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to India,
“Our view: We believe the recent trip by Prime Minister Carney, his team and Canadian business leaders to meet with officials in India delivered tangible agreements that positively impact our coverage, along with the framework for potential future agreements that could impact several companies in our coverage universe. With the sheer size of the Indian market, we believe the groundwork for a meaningful improvement in what had been a frosty relationship between Canada and India is a positive for Canadian companies. This report provides the Canadian Research Department’s views on stocks that could be impacted and in particular, we highlight Cameco (CCO), AltaGas (ALA), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), CN Railway (CNR), and Bombardier … Lots of opportunities on the energy front, including uranium, oil, LNG and LPGs. With India currently being the third largest consumer of oil and fourth largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the countries see “significant potential” to expand bilateral energy trade. On top of oil and LNG, Canada could increase its exports of uranium and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to India, with Canada potentially importing refined petroleum products from India”
03/11/26 06:32
Wednesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
- David Leeder
An office building for Goeasy Ltd, a personal lender for subprime borrowers, in Mississauga, Ontario, on Tuesday.Nick Iwanyshyn/The Globe and Mail
A group of equity analysts on the Street downgraded shares of lender Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) and others made significant reductions to their target prices on Wednesday.
The moves come in the wake of the Mississauga-based company plummeting almost 57 per cent on Tuesday after it revealed it will book an incremental $178-million charge for bad loans when it reports fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 at the end of the month, as well as a $55-million writedown for loan interest and fees.
“While the update resets expectations, there remains significant risks to the story,” said National Bank Financial’s Jaeme Gloyn. “Management pulled guidance and provided limited detail which leaves investors (and us) with impaired visibility on the outlook and future earnings power of the business.
“Beyond earnings power we see other sources of uncertainty, including: a) whether current allowances (approximately 10 per cent) are sufficient versus management’s expectation for mid-teens net charge-offs, b) stability of loan terms (e.g., cost, collateral) given negotiations with the lending syndicate, and c) risk of shareholder dilution if an equity raise is required to satisfy liquidity or leverage constraints.”
Mr. Gloyn lowered his recommendation to a “sector perform” rating from “outperform” previously, citing “reduced earnings visibility and elevated uncertainty.”
Read more: Here
Other companies mentioned include: CES Energy Solutions; Flagship Communities REIT; Logan Energy; Pan American Silver
03/11/26 06:18
Oracle rallies as strong revenue forecast eases concerns over massive AI bets
Oracle (ORCL-N) shares surged about 10 per cent before the bell on Wednesday after the software giant’s upbeat revenue forecast calmed worries over faster returns from its hefty spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The company has poured billions of dollars toward building data centers for partners like OpenAI and Meta (META-Q), while trimming staff and using smaller, AI-assisted teams and tools to develop software for its traditional customer base and businesses.
Oracle raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 to US$90-billion, above analysts’ estimates of US$86.6 -billion.
Remaining performance obligations (RPO), a key indicator of future contracted revenue, jumped 325 per cent from a year earlier to US$553-billion in the third quarter, compared with US$523-billion in the prior quarter and beating market estimates.
Oracle looks “like one of the more direct ways for investors to tap into the ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure. It’s a higher-risk, higher-reward stock, and effectively a leveraged play on the AI theme, which means it’s the first in line to take some punishment should the AI story lose steam,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
For its current fiscal fourth quarter, the company projected adjusted profit between US$1.96 and US$2.00, above analysts’ estimates of US$1.94.
Oracle’s stock is trading at over 19.17 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, compared with Microsoft’s 22.05.
- Reuters
03/11/26 06:01
IEA to recommend huge release of strategic oil stocks because of Iran war: reports
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is recommending a large-scale release of oil from strategic reserves that would exceed 100 million barrels over the first month, two sources with knowledge of IEA discussions said on Wednesday, to help restrain soaring crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
Spain’s Energy Minister Sara Aagesen said the proposed release would be the largest in IEA history, more than double the level from the start of the Ukraine war four years ago.
The IEA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In 2022, IEA member countries released 182.7 million barrels in two waves, which was the largest in IEA history, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that the IEA had proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history.
Western economies coordinate their strategic oil stockpiles through the Paris-based IEA, which was formed after the 1970s oil crisis.
- Reuters
03/11/26 05:45
Wall Street futures subdued as investors eye crude prices, inflation report
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Tuesday.Spencer Platt/Getty Images
U.S. stock index futures were subdued in choppy trading on Wednesday as investors assessed the outlook for crude prices and looked ahead to a key inflation report, while tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.
At 4:57 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 131 points, or 0.27 per cent, and S&P 500 E-minis were down 9.75 points, or 0.14 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 38.5 points, or 0.15 per cent.
Energy prices whipsawed as traders weighed a report that the International Energy Agency was looking at releasing oil reserves to stabilize supply, in the face of intensifying air strikes in the Middle East that are likely to ground shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz for a while.
Still, remarks from President Donald Trump earlier this week offered markets some reassurance that the war might not be drawn out for months. Oil prices have fallen to under $90 a barrel from nearly US$120 earlier in the week.
Later in the day, a report is expected to show consumer prices likely picked up in February as tariffs were passed through to individuals, which could add to worries of rising gasoline costs in the months ahead. The levies were deemed unconstitutional late last month.
Worries that higher energy costs could fan price pressures pushed back expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to September from July, according to LSEG-compiled data.
Signs of a softening jobs market are likely to further complicate the central bank’s monetary policymaking.
“The big concern for the markets is to what extent this supply shock leads to higher inflation, weaker growth, interest rates that are higher than they would otherwise have been, and lower profitability,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE volatility index, edged higher 0.72 points to 25.65.
Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL-N) predicted that the AI data centre boom will power its revenue above estimates well into 2027, sending its shares up 10 per cent in premarket trading.
Semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices were marginally higher.
- Reuters
03/11/26 05:24
Stocks sink as volatile oil prices, Middle East conflict weigh on trading
Global shares edged lower on Wednesday as oil prices fluctuated and mixed signals about the U.S.-Israeli stance on Iran heightened investor anxiety over inflationary pressures and risks to economic growth.
Beyond the Middle East, investors were reminded of the vulnerabilities within private credit after the Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported JPMorgan Chase JPM.N had marked down the value of some loans held by private-credit groups and was tightening its lending to the sector.
Oil had another volatile day, although price movement was relatively muted compared to the record price swings of Monday’s session.
The Wall Street Journal reported the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of reserves in its history to bring down crude prices, while energy ministers from the G7 nations said they supported the principle of using stockpiles to deal with the situation.
Brent crude futures were last up around 2 per cent at US$89.47 a barrel, having traded as low as US$86.24 overnight.
The MSCI All-World index eased a touch on the day as losses in European shares mounted, leaving the STOXX 600 down 0.7 per cent, shrugging off gains in Asia, where the Nikkei rose 1.7 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.75 per cent.
U.S. stock futures were virtually flat on the day .
- Reuters
03/11/26 05:21
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global markets slid as contradictory signals from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kept investors anxious over the risks to inflation and global growth.
Wall Street futures were in the red ahead of a key U.S. inflation report for February – before escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted energy prices.
TSX futures pointed lower after Canada’s major stock market closed marginally higher yesterday.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Descartes Systems Group Inc. and Bird Construction Inc.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Campbell’s Co.
“If the war ends and the worst – in terms of an energy price spike – is behind us, investors could return to a more constructive mode," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “But uncertainties loom, and there is a chance that the Iran war will not be done and dusted quickly.”
Read more: Here
03/11/26 05:01
Oil prices seesaw as markets weigh IEA reserves release, persistent supply concerns
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as markets doubted whether the International Energy Agency’s reported plan for a record release of oil reserves could offset potential supply shocks from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent futures traded up 59 US cents, or 0.7 per cent, at US$88.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded 98 US cents higher, or 1.2 per cent, at US$84.43 a barrel.
Both contracts extended losses in early Asian trade, after plunging more than 11 per cent on Tuesday, despite U.S. crude prices leaping 5 per cent at the market’s opening.
The IEA’s proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market in two releases in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the WSJ said, citing officials familiar with the matter.
In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs analysts said that a stockpile release of that size would offset 12 days of the investment bank’s estimated 15.4 million barrel-per-day Gulf exports disruption.
- Reuters
03/11/26 05:00
Tuesday markets recap: TSX gains back ground as fears lessen of prolonged war in Middle East
Israeli tanks and armoured personnel carriers near the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sparked a jump in crude prices, which has fuelled worries over inflation.Amir Cohen/Reuters
Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Tuesday as fears lessened of a prolonged Middle East war, with gains for financial and metal mining shares offsetting declines for energy after oil prices pulled back.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 81.33 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 33,270.65. On Monday, the index touched its lowest intraday level since Feb. 6 before ending higher.
“Prices have recovered somewhat after the initial fears of a prolonged conflict,” said Michael Sprung, president at Sprung Investment Management.
“Going forward we’re going to see high volatility as long as this war continues. Perhaps the best thing investors can do is just be confident in the companies they own in terms of their financial integrity and their management integrity.”
The materials index, which includes precious metal miners, added 1.2 per cent. The price of gold was up 1.2 per cent as the safe-haven U.S. dollar gave back some recent gains.
Heavily weighted financials were up 0.8 per cent despite a near 57-per-cent plunge in the shares of Goeasy Ltd. GSY-T The lender forecast a fourth-quarter incremental charge-off of $178-million and suspended its quarterly dividend as well as share repurchases.
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks lost steam, with the S&P 500 giving up early gains to skid into negative territory as investors weighed the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran against continuing worries of economic stagflation.
The Dow joined the S&P 500 in negative territory, while the Nasdaq eked out a nominal gain.
“The market was showing some strength and it has given all that back,” said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. “There’s a lot of confusion among investors.”
“You see these headlines coming out of the White House that give the market hope, and then clearer heads prevail and markets realize this is nowhere near over,” Mr. Ghriskey added. The indexes wavered through early-session trepidation as U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Tuesday would be the most intense day thus far of strikes against Iran.
The conflict has sparked a jump in crude prices, which has fuelled worries over inflation against a backdrop of a weakening labour market – a toxic combination of rising costs and a softening economy called stagflation.
U.S. and Brent front-month crude futures settled down over 11 per cent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.29 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 47,706.51, the S&P 500 lost 14.51 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 6,781.48 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.16 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 22,697.10.
Moves in Treasury yields were mixed and modest.
- Globe staff and wires