Markets today
- Stocks rose, supported by a New York Times report that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out indirectly to the CIA the day after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began, with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. However, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva on Tuesday had ruled out for now any negotiations with the United States.
- Stocks also got a boost from increased hopes for the U.S. economy. One report said growth for U.S. businesses in the real estate, finance and other services industries accelerated last month at the fastest pace since the summer of 2022. Encouragingly for inflation, it also said prices for such businesses are increasing at a slower rate. A second report suggested U.S. employers outside of the government picked up their hiring last month.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 points, or 0.49%, to 48,739.41, the S&P 500 gained 52.87 points, or 0.78%, to 6,869.50 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 290.79 points, or 1.29%, to 22,807.48.
- The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 157.92 points, or 0.5%, at 33,942.86. The technology sector rose 2.2%, led by a 6% gain for the shares of e-commerce company Shopify Inc. Four of the 10 major sectors ended lower, including industrials and consumer staples, which both lost 0.7%.
- The VIX — Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” which tracks expected stock-market volatility — slipped to around 21, down roughly 10% on the day, signaling that traders were pricing in less near-term turbulence despite the conflict.
- Oil prices saw a volatile trading session, as escalating U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran widened regional tensions and paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth day, disrupting vital Middle East oil and gas flows. Brent crude settled at $81.40 per barrel, flat to Tuesday’s close and at its highest since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 10 cents, or 0.1%, higher at $74.66, closing at its highest since June for the second day in a row.
- Gold prices rose as the escalating conflict in the Middle East attracted safe-haven bids, while a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rally also lent support. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.2% higher at US$5,134.70.
- Bitcoin gained 7.77% to a one-month high of US$73,338.07 as investors regained an appetite for risk assets.
03/04/26 16:20
Broadcom forecasts second-quarter revenue above estimates
Chip designer Broadcom (AVGO-Q) forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, a sign of strong demand for advanced chips used in data centers powering artificial intelligence applications.
It also announced a new share repurchase program of up to US$10 billion through the end of the year.
“Our AI revenue growth is accelerating, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to be $10.7 billion in Q2,” CEO Hock Tan said in a statement.
The company expects quarterly revenue to be about $22.0 billion, above analysts’ average estimate of $20.56 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Broadcom said last month that it expects to sell at least 1 million chips by 2027 based on its stacked design tech, marking a new product and a sales target that could represent a revenue stream potentially worth billions of dollars.
Growth in Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment slowed down to around 1% at $6.80 billion in the first quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of 2.6% growth to $6.88 billion.
Shares of Broadcom were up 3.8% in extended trading.
- Reuters
03/04/26 15:36
The discount on Canadian crude oil is quickly narrowing as Iran conflict disrupts oil markets
Prices for heavy crude produced in the Americas have been rising, as the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran stymied exports of similar oil produced in the Middle East.
The discount on heavy Canadian oil to WTI has tightened by US$1.25 a barrel since last Friday, as buyers in India and China squeezed by the Middle East supply shortage are likely turning in part to Canada, one of the world’s largest producers of heavy crude, analysts said. The Trans Mountain pipeline, which ships heavy crude from Alberta’s oil sands to the British Columbia coast for export overseas, is currently not full.
“We could see significant uptake of the remaining spot capacity on the Trans Mountain pipeline within weeks to a month if the Iran situation continues,” said Patrick O’Rourke of ATB Cormark Capital Markets.
On Tuesday, Western Canadian Select for April delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, settled at US$12.40 a barrel below the U.S. benchmark WTI, according to brokerage CalRock, compared to US$12.70 on Monday. The Canadian crude product trades at a discount to WTI because it requires more complex refining than lighter crude types.
Refiners are scrambling to deal with higher costs that could translate to higher consumer prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, and with Middle Eastern supply curtailed, the price of heavy oil produced in the United States, Canada and Venezuela has risen.
- Reuters
03/04/26 15:27
BoC’s Macklem says market repricing ‘relatively orderly’ but valuations stretched
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech in Toronto today that the repricing in the market has been “relatively orderly” and doesn’t reflect dysfunction in the financial system.
Macklem said geopolitical risks are high right now, compounded by trade uncertainty and risks around the rapid rise of artificial intelligence. He said equity and credit markets are seeing stretched valuations that raise the risk of “sharp reversals and increased volatility.”
“Risks may be growing faster than our ability to understand and mitigate them. Economic uncertainty is already high – we cannot afford to add financial instability to the mix,” he said.
- The Canadian Press
03/04/26 15:18
Trump says oil is beginning to flow from Venezuela
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez was “doing a great job” and that oil was beginning to flow from Venezuela.
“Delcy Rodríguez, who is the President of Venezuela, is doing a great job, and working with U.S. Representatives very well. The Oil is beginning to flow, and the professionalism and dedication between both Countries is a very nice thing to see!,” Trump said on Truth Social.
Trump posted the statement after U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with Rodriguez in Venezuela on Wednesday.
- Reuters
03/04/26 15:12
Nvidia CEO hints at end of investments in OpenAI, Anthropic
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA-Q) CEO Jensen Huang said the latest investments in OpenAI and Anthropic might be the chipmaker’s last in those companies, as the AI companies prepare to go public this year.
The opportunity to invest US$100 billion in OpenAI is probably not in the cards, Huang said at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom conference on Wednesday.
Nvidia and OpenAI had announced a US$100 billion deal in September last year. Nvidia has instead finalized a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, which might be the last time it has the opportunity to “invest in a consequential company like this,” Huang said.
Nvidia’s US$10 billion investment in Anthropic probably will be the last as well, Huang added.
The Financial Times reported in February that Nvidia and OpenAI had abandoned their US$100 billion deal amid doubts about the health of the AI sector. Some analysts had raised concerns about the circular arrangement, as the large investment in Anthropic would have made Nvidia a major investor in one of its biggest customers and the money it would pour into the startup was likely to be spent on its own AI processors.
- Reuters
03/04/26 14:57
The top 10 TSX stocks of February - and four names with the biggest boosts to analyst targets
- Jennifer Dowty
February was a remarkable month for the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which surged 7.6 per cent. Importantly, it was a broad-based rally.
In February, nine sectors delivered positive price returns and just two sectors reported losses. Sectors that rallied were materials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, health care, utilities, industrials, communication services, and financials with price returns of 21.6 per cent, 10.4 per cent, 10 per cent, 8.5 per cent, 8.4 per cent, 8.1 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 2.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.
Sectors detractors were real estate and technology with negative price returns of 0.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively.
The top 10 performers in the S&P/TSX Composite Index in February were:
- First Majestic Silver (AG-T), up 54 per cent
- Novagold (NG-T), up 53 per cent
- Alamos Gold (AGI-T), up 47 per cent
- Orla Mining (OLA-T), up 44 per cent
- SSR Mining (SSRM-T), up 41 per cent
- Fortuna Mining (FVI-T), up 40 per cent
- Seabridge Gold (SEA-T), up 40 per cent
- Perpetua Resources (PPTA-T), up 39 per cent
- Silvercorp Metals (SVM-T), up 38 per cent
- IAMGOLD (IMG-T), up 36 per cent
Stocks with material positive revisions to their average target prices over the past month include:
- Enerflex (EFX-T), increased 36 per cent to $34.35 from $25.17
- 5N Plus (VNP-T), increased 25 per cent to $35 from $27.92
- Sprott (SII-T), increased 24 per cent to $196.35 from $157.80
- Magna (MG-T), increased 24 per cent to $93.88 from $75.66
As of February 27, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 17.8 times the 2026 consensus earnings estimate, up from 16.9 times last month, according to Bloomberg. Earnings estimates have been rising with earnings growth of 16.1 per cent expected over the next 12 months, up from 15.3-per-cent forecast last month.
Click here for my report today on analysts’ current target prices, recommendations, forecast returns and yields for all securities in the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
03/04/26 14:31
Fed report points to positive U.S. economic outlook, stable employment
U.S. economic activity rose a bit, prices continued to increase and employment levels were stable in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in a report that may leave central bank policymakers puzzling about the path of inflation as they prepare for their next policy meeting in two weeks.
“Overall, economic expectations were optimistic, with most (Fed) districts expecting slight to moderate growth in the coming months,” the U.S. central bank said in its latest “Beige Book” report, a roundup of qualitative economic data from across the country including surveys of and interviews with business leaders and community organizations.
“On balance, firms expected prices to rise at a somewhat slower pace in the near term,” according to the report, which is designed to give Fed officials a granular look at the economy’s health in the runup to their eight yearly rate-setting meetings.
The information in the latest report was gathered on or before February 23, just after the Supreme Court’s invalidation of many of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and prior to the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The Fed held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range at its January 27-28 meeting, citing a stabilizing labor market and continued elevated inflation as reasons to pause a string of interest rate cuts in the last three meetings of 2025.
With data since then showing steady growth in the manufacturing sector, a surge in wholesale prices in January, and no obvious labour market deterioration, the central bank is widely expected to leave rates on hold again at its March 17-18 meeting even before the Iran conflict sent oil prices higher. That new development could leave the central bank on hold for longer due to inflation concerns.
Traders currently don’t expect the Fed to deliver another rate cut until its July 28-29 meeting, when former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is expected to already be installed as the central bank’s new chief. Trump submitted his nomination of Warsh to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the U.S. Senate on Wednesday. Powell’s term as Fed chief ends in mid-May, and Warsh is expected to support the rate cuts that Trump wants.
- Reuters
03/04/26 12:59
Big moves for small caps MDA Space, Canada Packers, and VersaBank
- Brenda Bouw
Several small caps in Canada are seeing notable moves today. Among them:
MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) shares rose in volatile trading after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and an improved outlook for 2026.
Canada Packers Inc. (CPKR-T) shares jumped after the company largely beat expectations for its fourth quarter.
VersaBank (VBNK-T) shares started the session higher but have since turned down sharply, after the company reported stronger results for its first quarter ended Jan. 31, which largely beat expectations.
For more details, see my full writeup today on small caps to watch
03/04/26 12:13
Capital Power shares decline despite a no-surprise earnings report
- Darcy Keith
Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) shares are down 2 per cent at midday and pushing lower as the trading session progresses, despite an earnings report this morning that seemed fine - at least on the surface.
Adjusted EBITDA of $414 million matched consensus estimates. Normalized adjusted funds from operations of $1.57 exceeded the consensus of $1.29. Guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed.
TD Cowen analyst John Mould said the results were neutral for the stock.
“This was a relatively quiet quarter for CPX in terms of business updates, which is unsurprising after a fulsome update at the December 2025 Investor Day. The morning of the Investor Day the company announced 1) the Apollo partnership for potential U.S. merchant gas-fired M&A and 2) the 250 MW data center offtake MOU in Alberta,” he said in a note.
One possible reason for the poor reception today: dividend-heavy utility stocks in general are a bit weaker, with a modest rise in bond yields not helping their performance.
03/04/26 12:13
Gold flubs its lines amid Middle East mayhem
The most peculiar market move in an alarming week of Middle East conflict was how the most obvious “safe haven” - gold - flubbed its lines. Instead of piling into gold, investors seemed to sprint for dollar cash, offloading anything that caught a speculative head of steam before last weekend’s attacks.
Three days after Saturday’s attacks on Iran, the initial bid for precious metals faded quickly. On Tuesday, there was a major reversal, with gold suddenly falling 4% and silver dropping as much as 10%.
A return of the dollar’s long-lost “safety bid,” which saw the greenback climb this week despite heavy losses in U.S. stocks and bonds, was cited as one basic reason for gold’s reversal.
Both public and private funds in the Middle East region now facing Iranian retaliatory strikes may be opting for dollar liquidity. A spike in dollar-denominated oil and gas prices may also have spurred demand for cash in the world’s reserve currency.
The main reason for the dollar rise, however, is most likely the hit to major European and Asian economies from a protracted energy supply disruption and price spike compared with the relatively insulated U.S.
Either way, a rebounding dollar takes the shine off gold.
But there are other possible reasons for gold’s “no-show” so far this week.
One is gold’s correlation with the Swiss franc. Both are traditionally the safest of safe havens in stressful times and get bid up in tandem - especially now that others such as Japan’s yen and U.S. Treasuries have been neutralized as such in recent years.
But an extraordinary warning of franc-selling intervention from the Swiss National Bank on Monday quickly reversed the currency’s gains against both the dollar and the euro. The resulting unwind of haven trades may have added pressure on gold.
A more prosaic explanation is that investors who loaded up on gold in a speculative frenzy - one that almost doubled its price to fresh records over the past year - are simply cashing out of their best-performing trades as risk and volatility rise.
- Mike Dolan, Reuters
03/04/26 11:55
Value stocks are getting their revenge. Are you ready for it?
- Scott Barlow
“Buy low, sell high” has been the investing cliche since the dawn of time but it hasn’t worked for at least a decade. Instead, “buy high, sell higher” has been the path to riches as the winners kept on winning. Until last month.
I am not declaring that a new value market is underway although that is possible based on the current market backdrop. What I am suggesting is that few of us will be mentally prepared when the value market comes.
Since September 2010 when the Vanguard Russell 1000 growth and value ETFs became available, the cumulative 781 per cent cumulative return for the growth index crushed the 281 per cent cumulative return for the value index. There were few periods, even shorter time frames like 12 months, when the value index beat growth.
February market returns did not follow the same pattern. BofA Securities chief U.S. quant and equity strategist Savita Subramanian emphasized that the Russell 1000 value index outperformed the growth index by 6.0 percentage points (2.6 per cent versus -3.4 per cent), a significant margin. High cash flow yield was the best performing market factor.
Utilities, energy and materials were the top performing U.S sectors for the month while consumer discretionary (dominated by Amazon.com and Tesla Inc.), communication services (Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms are the biggest companies in this subindex) and technology were the laggards.
U.S. and global manufacturing data will be a key determinant of growth versus value returns. Even in services dominated developed economies, manufacturing activity is more sensitive to changes in the economic cycle and therefore can signal changes in equity market leadership.
I share more of my thoughts on this in today’s Market Factors newsletter.
03/04/26 10:42
TSX rises on tech, mining strength
Canada’s main stock index edged higher on Wednesday, lifted by mining and tech shares, while investors weighed a report that Iranian operatives reached out to the U.S. to pursue talks to end the conflict.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 206.57 points, or 0.61 per cent, at 33,991.51., as of 10:43 a.m. ET. The index nearly fell 4 per cent in the previous session before recovering, as fears of inflation rippled across global markets.
“The market is expecting things to de-escalate. We’ve seen multiple global conflicts impacting the availability of oil over the last several years. Throughout all that, we’ve come through with a reasonably strong global economy, measured oil prices and good stock performance,” said Josh Sheluk, portfolio manager at Verecan Capital Management.
Tech stocks led the sectoral gains with a 2.6 per cent jump, as blockchain farm operator Bitfarms climbed 9 per cent after bitcoin prices hit more than a three-week high.
The gold index rose 0.5 per cent as spot gold gained 1.4 per cent. On the broader materials sector, base metal miners gained 0.6 per cent as silver and copper prices also climbed.
The heavily weighted financial index rose 0.5 per cent.
Energy shares traded 0.6 per cent lower as oil prices eased, retreating from gains made early in the day amid the Middle East conflict.
- Reuters
03/04/26 10:33
Fed’s Miran: Risks from Iran conflict no reason to delay continued rate cuts
Inflation and other risks from the U.S. military conflict with Iran haven’t changed the need for the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates this year, with price pressures expected to ease and the job market still at risk, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
Higher oil prices due to the conflict “will feed into headline inflation, but the evidence that it feeds into core inflation ... is quite limited. ... It is difficult for me to get very excited about a policy implication of what’s happened so far,” Miran said, adding that the Fed in his view should make four quarter-point rate cuts this year to reach a roughly neutral level, a point some of his more hawkish colleagues believe has been reached already with the policy rate in a 3.5-3.75-per-cent range.
Unlike 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a global jump in oil and other commodity prices and helped stoke broader price pressures, Miran said the current situation was different because monetary policy was tight and fiscal policy less expansionary, lowering the risk of persistent inflation.
- Reuters
03/04/26 10:21
Wall Street holds steadier as oil prices stop spiking, for now at least
The U.S. stock market is holding steadier on Wednesday, for now at least, following two days of punishing swings driven by worries about how high oil prices will go because of the war with Iran.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7 per cent in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6 per cent, as of 10:23 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.2 per cent higher.
Travel stocks that are sensitive to oil prices were mixed, having gained in premarket trading. American Airlines rose 1.2 per cent and Norwegian Cruise was flat, while Carnival and Delta slipped 1.2 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively.
Oil and gas producers such as ConocoPhillips and Cheniere Energy lost 2.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent, while the S&P 500 Energy sector dropped 1.8 per cent and led sectors lower.
Investors also scooped up tech stocks that sold off heavily in February. Nvidia added 1 per cent and other chip stocks such as Sandisk and Applied Digital were up 2.7 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.
The CBOE volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, dropped 1.03 points to 22.51, while the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index was marginally higher.
- The Associated Press and Reuters
03/04/26 09:56
Goldman says global equities face correction risks, but bear market unlikely
Goldman Sachs sees “correction risks” to global stocks in the near term due to worries about geopolitics, AI disruption and elevated valuations, though the Wall Street bank sees limited room for a bear market.
“We see correction risks as high given current valuations, but expect this to present a buying opportunity with relatively low risk of a more protracted and deep bear market,” Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equities strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Wednesday.
A bear market is confirmed when an index closes at least 20 per cent below its most recent record high finish, according to a widely used definition. It confirms a correction if the index closes 10 per cent or more below that level.
Global equities have been rattled since the start of the year by fears of AI disruption to businesses, massive AI spending from Big Tech and most recently, the Middle East conflict.
The U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran has heightened fears of an oil price shock, higher inflation and economic uncertainty. That, combined with elevated equity valuations, has prompted investors to shun risky assets in favor of safer ones.
- Reuters
03/04/26 09:35
North American stock indexes open higher on on report of Iran’s secret outreach to U.S.
North America’s main indexes opened higher on Wednesday as investors weighed a report that Iranian operatives secretively reached out to the U.S. to pursue talks to end the conflict, while President Donald Trump’s assurance to stabilize oil markets also boosted sentiment.
Canada’s main stock index was lifted by mining shares as gold prices rose.
At 9:31 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.51 per cent at 33,958.92 points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 134.33 points or 0.28 per cent to 48,629.08. The S&P 500 rose 15.1 points, or 0.22 per cent, at the open to 6,831.69, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 104.2 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 22,620.89 at the opening bell.
- Reuters
03/04/26 09:24
David Rosenberg is becoming ‘more bullish now than in many years’, has a stock pick
- Darcy Keith
Market bulls may be a bit surprised where to look for some encouragement this morning among the daily commentors.
One of the Street’s best-known bears, economist David Rosenberg, says he’s feeling upbeat about the outlook for the market and prospects that the conflict in the Middle East won’t last much longer. He believes oil prices are going to come down in the not-too-distant future, as will inflation. He even has one specific stock pick to convey in his morning Breakfast with Dave newsletter:
“Eradicating the Iranian regime and the future stability this brings to the Mideast in particular, and the world in general, is beginning to make me more bullish now than in many years. I expect oil prices to be far lower in the coming months and quarters. Along with peak tariffs, the Fed’s concerns will be alleviated, and the inflation nervous nellies who came out of the woodwork over the weekend will hopefully either be silenced or moved back into hibernation. One thing you can take to the bank is that Israel and the White House are not going to back down due to any political pressure, here or abroad. The regime may not change, but it will be a toothless tiger that will have no means to threaten world stability any longer. There are no off-ramps, folks, despite what Thomas Friedman and CNN anchors would yearn for.”
“We remain long of bonds, gold, and the miners, and in the equity market, if there is one specific company that does stand out as attractively priced with solid GARP characteristics, it is Microsoft (MSFT-Q) — like Walmart, though in a different sector, it is the poster child for defensive growth but with far more compelling valuations.”
“I was thinking and hoping that this war with the Iranian regime would last four or five weeks, but I’m now thinking it could be over in days. There is nowhere for the heads of the snake that are still kicking around to hide — as we saw yesterday with the IDF wiping out several who had gathered in one room to select a new leader. The military and naval capabilities are being seriously degraded by the day, and the daily bombings of Israeli cities have subsided dramatically in a sign of depleted launching capacity. And now the regime (that is, who the war is being waged against) has seen its ability to attack ships in the Gulf practically eradicated. It is very clear that this mission to save the world from decades of evil was in the works for many months and meticulously planned out. All the talk about soaring oil prices never did factor in that the U.S. can step up production and that there is a massive amount of oil at sea just sitting — as it is sanctioned, so it can be released if needed. Ergo, there is no shortage of crude oil, and that will come to bear as the initial sharp hiccup reversed course.”
03/04/26 08:53
Korean stocks record worst day, won sinks on Iran conflict
People pass by a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) at the Korea Exchange in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, March 4.Ahn Young-joon/The Associated Press
As South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI stock index dived more than 12 per cent to its worst-ever sell-off on Wednesday, a district known as the Korean Silicon Valley was eerily quiet when it would normally be bustling for the lunchtime rush.
Workers were instead hunkered over smartphone screens, feverishly checking trading portfolios as they watched the world’s hottest market - which had doubled over the past year - go into freefall.
“I heard some of my colleagues gasping ‘What the hell?’ as the KOSPI’s losses widened past 8 per cent in the morning,” said Jessica Chung, who was one of many tapping intently on phone screens in the Pangyo area of Seongnam, a high-tech hub just south of Seoul.
“I went to the bathroom to find a quiet corner to trade and, guess what, people were queuing outside,” she said, describing the atmosphere as a collective sense of dread.
The widening war in the Middle East and resulting spike in oil prices have triggered a rethink about the AI boom that has driven the KOSPI to a succession of record peaks in recent months, because South Korea is almost completely reliant on imports for its energy needs.
Chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - the poster children of a rally that had accelerated this year - have plunged some 20 per cent each this holiday-shortened week.
The KOSPI is down a combined 18.4 per cent after Tuesday’s 7.2-per-cent tumble, wiping out a total of 817.6 trillion won (US$553.82 billion) in market value.
Overnight, the won briefly breached a psychological barrier of the 1,500 mark to hit its weakest level since March 2009 at 1,505.8 per dollar, before closing the session down 3.1 per cent at 1,485.7. It was up 0.6 per cent at 1,476.2 on Wednesday.
- Reuters
03/04/26 08:23
BofA strategist suggests not enough U.S. Navy protection for Strait of Hormuz
- Scott Barlow
BofA Securities commodity strategist Clifton White assessed energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,
“Nearly 20 per cent of global LNG supplies must pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global gas consumers, and vessel traffic was halted starting Monday due to risks associated with passing through the Strait … We could see even higher global gas prices if Iran disrupts LNG flows through Hormuz (see Frozen gas heats up on cold weather). Even though Europe receives most of its LNG supplies from the US, Europe is still at risk of higher global gas prices. LNG is fungible and any consumers that have not locked in LNG supplies in advance will likely have to compete with other LNG consumers that are trying to replace any lost Qatar volumes … President Trump claims to have ordered the U.S. Development and Finance Corporation to provide insurance at a “very reasonable price” for maritime trade traveling in the Gulf and that the U.S. Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, yet there is a conflicting industry report from Lloyd’s that claims there is currently no availability for naval escorts”
If my choice is whether to believe President Trump or Lloyd’s of London, I will go with the latter.
03/04/26 08:14
Top investor takeaways from Scotiabank’s 54th annual global energy conference
- Scott Barlow
Scotiabank held its 54th annual global energy conference last week and Wednesday published the most important takeaways from the event,
“Upstream capex is down year-over-year across the board as companies leverage greater efficiencies to maximize FCF. Production is anticipated to be flat or see modest growth at most … Canadian Oil-Weighted E&P/Integrated: Focused on capital efficient growth and debottnecking. IMO and WCP are working on several debottlnecking and growth projects with strong capital efficiencies. New technologies are continuing to drive efficiencies and unlock incremental cost saving opportunities. Pipeline egress runway extends to 2030s. Producers believe that pipeline optimization and debottlenecking projects will add enough capacity for the WCSB to be long pipeline capacity into the 2030s … The natural gas producer group agreed that western North American prices have underwhelmed during Q1/26, while Midwest and Eastern prices have provided significant wins during the mid-winter cold snaps. The producers see potential for AECO and California prices to improve as the year progress and LNG Canada ramps to full capacity. Longer term, continued LNG and power generation growth will be required to keep demand ahead of supply. Notably, ARX, BIR, TOU, and WCP all spoke to a suite of gas focused growth opportunities in their portfolios … The global outlook for nuclear power has arguably never been better, driven by the Western World agendas of decarbonization, energy independence, and power security. To overcome the first-mover barrier, the U.S. government (USG) has shifted strategy on nuclear from waiting on utilities to move forward projects to actively underwriting new plants, as demonstrated by the recent $80B agreement with Westinghouse”
03/04/26 08:12
Goldman CEO says markets may take a ‘couple of weeks’ to digest Iran war impact
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said on Wednesday that he was surprised at the “benign” reaction in financial markets over the conflict in the Middle East, and it may take a “couple of weeks” for investors to more fully digest the impacts.
“I look at the market reaction, and I’m actually surprised that the market reaction has been more benign given the magnitude of this as you might think,” Solomon said in a speech at a business summit in Sydney.
Solomon said markets tend to react in a muted way to geopolitical events unless they have a direct impact on economic growth.
“There’s a cumulative effect of everything that’s happening and a much harsher reaction. Up to this point, we haven’t seen that cumulative effect,” he said. “But it’s very hard to speculate because there is so much that is unknown at this point.”
“I think it’s gonna take a couple of weeks for markets to really digest the implications of what has happened both in the short term and medium term, and I can’t speculate as to how that would play out,” he said.
Read more: Here
- Reuters
03/04/26 07:55
BofA Securities strategist upgrades her top U.S. stock picks for growth and value
- Scott Barlow
There are six changes to BofA Securities U.S. quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian’s top picks for growth and value among U.S. stocks. In the growth section, Palo Alto Networks (PANW-Q) replaces Gilead Sciences inc. (GILD-Q), and Expand Energy Corp (EXE-Q) replaces Sandisk Corp. (SNDK-Q). Expand Energy replaces Pacific Gas and Electric Co (PCG-N) in the top ten value picks.
The top ten growth picks are now Allstate Corp. (ALL-N), AppLovin Corp. (APP-Q), Axon Ent Inc. (AXON-Q), Expand Energy, Meta Platforms (META-Q), Merck & Co. (MRK-N), Palo Alto Networks, TKO Group (TKO-N), Take Two Interactive (TTWO-Q) and Welltower (WELL-N).
The top ten for value are Arch Capital (ACGL-Q), Aflac (AFL-N), Allstate Corp., Edison International (EIX-N), Expand Energy, Metlife (MET-N), Merck, Nucor (NUE-N), Pinnacle West capital (PNW-N) and Synchrony Financial (SYF-N)
The criteria for the growth list is high earnings surprise potential, a BofA buy rating, and high projected five year earnings growth estimates by BofA analysts. For value, earnings surprise potential is also a factor, along with a buy rating and low trailing PE ratio.
03/04/26 06:40
Wednesday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
- David Leeder
Seeing Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.’s (PET-T) 2026 guidance as “uninspiring” alongside a “tepid” industry backdrop, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar downgraded his rating for the retailer’s shares to “sector perform” from “outperform” following the release of “light” fourth-quarter 2025 financial results.
“While the pet industry has historically been characterized by stable growth, we believe the current pressured backdrop (tepid consumer and heightened industry competition, etc.) is unfavourable for premium priced retailers (motivates trade down). We downgrade to Sector Perform from Outperform,” he explained. “We view our rating change to be tactical and remain constructive on the industry long term; however, we believe the stock could be range-bound in the near term.”
Read more: Here
Other companies mentioned include: Blue Ant Media; CAE; European Residential REIT; Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT; Paramount Resources; Plaza Retail REIT; Wajax
03/04/25 06:21
Gold gains as Middle East conflict revives safe-haven bid
Gold prices climbed 2 per cent on Wednesday, rebounding from their lowest in more than a week reached in the previous session, as the dollar took a breather and mounting tensions in the Middle East drove investors toward safe havens.
Spot gold gained 2.2 per cent to USUS$5,198.58 per ounce by 5:17 a.m. ET, after falling more than 4 per cent on Tuesday.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery added 1.7 per cent to US$5,211.20.
The U.S. dollar fell 0.2 per cent, making greenback-priced gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies.
“After the past few days of position unwinds and dollar strength, markets are back to a more typical macro risk-off stance, with silver higher too. A pause in the rise of the dollar and Treasury yields helps with their opportunity costs,” said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money.
“Gold and silver’s safe-haven characteristics can shine again.”
- Reuters
03/04/26 06:05
Wall Street futures inch up after report on Iran-U.S. talks to end war
U.S. stock index futures reversed losses and were marginally higher on Wednesday as investors assessed a report that suggested Iranian operatives were discussing terms to end the five-day conflict with Israel and the United States.
A New York Times report said operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. a day after the attacks began, according to officials briefed on the outreach.
However, U.S. officials are skeptical, at least in the short term, that either the Trump administration or Iran is really ready for an off-ramp, the report said.
After two volatile sessions for Wall Street, investors scooped up technology stocks that sold off heavily in February such as Nvidia, up 1.4 per cent on the day.
At 05:28 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 19 points, or 0.04 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 11 points, or 0.16 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 56 points, or 0.23 per cent.
Travel stocks that are sensitive to oil prices and bore the brunt of losses earlier this week turned higher after the report on Wednesday. Delta Airlines added 1 per cent in premarket trading and Carnival edged up 0.4 per cent.
- Reuters
03/04/26 05:58
TSX futures rise as Middle East crisis boosts oil, gold prices
Futures tracking Canada’s main stock index rose on Wednesday as rising tensions in the Middle East pumped up oil prices for the fourth straight day, while safe-haven demand boosted gold prices.
March futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were up 0.36 per cent, as of 5:20 a.m. ET.
The conflict has jolted investors worldwide as it heads into its fifth day. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said it would take a couple of weeks for the markets to digest the impact of the war on Iran.
Oil prices gained but at a slower pace than in previous sessions as traders weighed concerns of supply disruption from the Middle East.
- Reuters
03/04/26 05:32
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global equities were mixed as markets took a breather after a global equities rout on concerns about a widened and prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Wall Street futures were muted as investors awaited a fresh slate of economic data for cues on the interest rate outlook, while surging oil prices added to inflation pressures.
TSX futures edged higher as commodity prices climbed.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Athabasca Oil Corp., Capital Power Corp., George Weston Ltd., Kinaxis Inc., Linamar Corp., and Vermilion Energy Inc.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Broadcom Inc.
Read more: Here
93/04/26 05:18
Oil prices rise 3 per cent as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply
Oil prices rose 3 per cent on Wednesday as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from past sessions after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent rose USUS$2.67, or 3.3 per cent, to USUS$84.07 a barrel, after closing on Tuesday at its highest since January 2025.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose USUS$2.24, or 3 per cent, to USUS$76.8, after settling at its highest since June. Both benchmarks have risen about 5 per cent or more in the past two sessions.
“The primary near-term driver for oil prices remains the U.S.-Iran conflict,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.
- Reuters
03/04/26 05:09
Oil shock fear hits Asian tech stocks while European selloff pauses
Selling in hard-hit European shares paused on Wednesday as the focus shifted to Asia - including a record-breaking crash in Seoul, where investors dumped chipmakers on fears the widening Middle East war will create an oil price shock, raising inflation and delaying interest rate cuts.
Traders’ rush to unload different asset classes around the world has at times threatened to become chaotic this week as they process the consequences of energy prices remaining elevated for an extended period of time.
Plunges in one part of the market have spilled over into others as investors try to cover for losses elsewhere and cut down on risks.
Even safe-haven gold for example fell more than 4 per cent on Tuesday, though it was back up 1.5 per cent on Wednesday at USUSUS$5,155 an ounce. At the heart of it all, benchmark Brent crude was at USUSUS$83.76 a barrel on Wednesday, up for a third straight day, though off its Tuesday highs, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort tankers through the key Strait of Hormuz if necessary.
Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.6 per cent and Taiwan stocks dropped 4.3 per cent as investors raced out of what has been one of the hottest bets of the last few months in semiconductor makers.
But in a sign markets can still surprise in both directions, Europe’s broad STOXX 600 rose 0.6 per cent on Wednesday, albeit after falling 4.6 per cent on Monday and Tuesday, its biggest two-day fall since April 2025’s tariff turmoil. Helping Europe, benchmark gas prices also steadied on Wednesday, though they are roughly 75 per cent higher than Friday’s close. Spanish stocks and bonds lagged somewhat after Trump threatened to impose a trade embargo on the country.
Wall Street meanwhile has dodged the worst of the selling, and the S&P 500 is down just under 1 per cent so far this week. Futures were last down 0.3 per cent
- Reuters
03/04/26 04:30
Tuesday markets recap: Broad sell-off hits markets as investors fear prolonged Iran conflict
- Andrew Galbraith
Stock market numbers are displayed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on Tuesday.Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Major North American stock indexes fell Tuesday along with bond prices and the price of gold as investors worried that a spiralling war in Iran may be growing into a drawn-out regional conflict with global economic implications.
While markets pared earlier losses after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that the U.S. would insure oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and escort them if necessary, analysts said that investors remained concerned about further escalation of the three-day-old conflict.
“The market is still nervous ... risk sentiment will remain very tempered until we get some more concrete signs of de-escalation or negotiation,” George Davis, chief technical strategist, global markets at RBC Capital Markets, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Canada’s broad TSX/SPX Composite Index fell more than 4 per cent before paring losses to end 2.2 per cent lower at 33,784.94 . It was weighed down by materials companies, with a subindex tracking the sector slumping more than 7 per cent on the day.
The S&P 500 index closed down 0.9 per cent and the tech-heavy NASDAQ index lost 1 per cent.
With reports from Meera Raman and Reuters