Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Pointing to what is “likely to remain a complex investment landscape,” Scotia Capital analyst Phil Hardie continues to recommend taking “a barbell approach” to investing in Canadian diversified financial companies, “balancing quality defensive with attractive value opportunities.”
“Rising uncertainties and tariff-related risks have strengthened our conviction in the barbell approach we recommended heading into 2025,” he said in a report previewing earnings season. “We prefer stocks with relatively low valuations that offer attractive returns with upside driven by a combination of earnings, book value, or NAV growth and dividend yields. Stocks under our coverage with quality-defensive attributes have unsurprisingly generated some of the strongest outperformance through 2025. While expected returns for our quality defensive names are narrowing, a “winning by not losing” strategy may still have merit at this point of the cycle. That said, we think valuation disparities are too wide to ignore and believe value-oriented names offer the biggest upside opportunities over the coming 12 to 18 months.
“Near term stock performance expected to continue to be impacted by shifts in investor risk appetite, and we also believe we will see increased stock selectivity and some trade-offs with respect to comfort levels with valuations. The Diversified Financials don’t directly import or export physical goods that are subject to tariffs, and with maybe one or two exceptions, the primary impacts relate to the health of the economy and to a degree FX.”
Mr. Hardie made a series of target price adjustments to stocks in his coverage universe on Thursday. They include:
- Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU-N/BBU.UN-T, “sector outperform”) to US$29 from $33. The average on the Street is US$31.86, according to LSEG data.
- Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “sector perform”) to $62 from $61. Average: $63.56.
- Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T, “sector outperform”) to $2,500 from $2,400. Average: $2,458.33.
- First National Financial Corp. (FN-T, “sector perform”) to $44 from $45. Average: $43.60.
- Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T, “sector perform”) to $7 from $8.75. Average: $7.45.
- Guardian Capital Group Ltd. (GCG.A-T, “sector outperform”) to $54 from $55. Average: $53.
- Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T, “sector perform”) to $215 from $240. Average: $230.10.
- Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T, “sector outperform”) to $298 from $295. Average: $298.46.
- IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T, “sector perform”) to $49 from $56. Average: $50.83.
- Onex Corp. (ONEX-T, “sector outperform”) to $130 from $145. Average: $144.
- Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “sector outperform”) to $61 from $62. Average: $55.29.
- Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T, “sector outperform”) to $38 from $44. Average: $44.55.
“Power Corp. is our top pick for 2025 and Trisura is our top small cap idea given what we view as a compelling risk-reward trade-off. Our top value-ideas include: Fairfax, Onex, Brookfield Business Partners and Guardian. For defensive quality, our top name remains Intact. We believe mid-cap GARP investors looking for a combination of resilience and growth will find Element as an attractive opportunity. We see Propel as a solid small-cap growth play. ”
“We expect the Non-bank Financial space to remain a strong source of alpha generation. The sector includes a diverse range of companies and business models with varying degrees of macro sensitivities. From a tariff perspective, we think the subsectors that will be viewed as winners are those that have relatively low macroeconomic sensitivity and able to generate solid returns through a combination of earnings growth and dividends if multiples become constrained or pressured. This likely puts some of the classical defensives such as P&C insurers into the winner’s circle. We think middle ground are names that offer a combination of solid growth and resilience. An interesting subsector in the North American context, is the exchanges. This is a sector where you have seen a shift in earnings towards recurring revenues from data-type businesses. Interestingly, this could be an area where you see many of them benefit from elevated uncertainty through higher stock and derivative trading volumes even if financings drop off. If things escalate to a prolonged trade war that impacts the health of labour markets, we think you would get a negative read-through for the more economically sensitive sectors such as the alternative lenders.”
=====
After Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) reported largely in-line first-quarter financial results before the bell on Wednesday, National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen sees its valuation as “compelling,” however he warned it “faces some ongoing challenges with tepid freight demand and the risk to the broader economy from tariffs.”
“With the Q1 release, Mullen management effectively reiterated its 2025 targets for revenue of $2.2-billion and EBITDA of $350-million while also acknowledging heightened macro risk,” he said in a research note. “The recently announced acquisition of Cole Group is the main contributor towards reaching the 2025 goals. As for the business outlook, management notes that end market conditions were largely unchanged in Q1 from prior quarters and the recent tariff challenges have so far not resulted in any material change to end market demand. However, the company may have experienced some pull-forward of freight in Q1 ahead of tariffs so management’s expectation is that trade uncertainty could result in a choppy Q2.
“Management’s 2025 financial targets assumed $150-million deployed towards acquisitions, but the pending acquisition of Cole Group is for a reported sale price of $190-million, which would take total M&A in 2025 above the target. At the end of Q1, Mullen had $131-million in cash on hand and only $7-million drawn on its available credit facility of $525-million. We therefore believe the company can make additional acquisitions this year and into 2026 as opportunities arise while still maintaining a comfortable financial position.”
Shares of the Okotoks, Alta.-based trucking and logistics provider closed up 0.8 per cent on Wednesday after it reported revenue rose 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $497-million, exceeding Mr. Doerksen’s $493-million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share of 21 cents was 3 cents higher than his expectation.
“Given the deterioration in trucking end market fundamentals in recent months due to the tariff-induced economic slowdown, we have trimmed our forecast for Mullen in both 2025 and 2026,” he said. “As an offset, we have incorporated the Cole Group acquisition into our estimates starting in Q3/25 assuming an annualized EBITDA run rate of $30-million as a best guess for earnings contribution for now. We expect additional financial details on the acquisition once it closes later in Q2.”
With the reduction to his financial projections, Mr. Doerksen lowered his target for Mullen shares by $1 to $18, maintaining an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $16.65, according to LSEG data.
“On our updated 2025 estimates, Mullen trades at 5.6 times EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year forward average of 7.0 times (weighted average U.S. peers currently at 8.7 times),” he said. “We forecast Mullen’s free cash flow at $144 million for an attractive FCF yield of 14 per cent. Finally, the dividend yield is an attractive 6.9 per cent.”
Elsewhere, while calling it a “tough” quarterly print, Raymond James analyst Michael Barth upgraded Mullen to “outperform” from “market perform” previously.
“Despite the headline EBITDA miss, we did see continued improvement in organic revenue growth trends this quarter, and it’s that improvement that gives us confidence that organic EBITDA growth could turn a corner later this year,” he said. “We’ve been cautious on MTL since initiating last year, but with the stock underperforming the TSX by 15 per cent year-to-date and 26 per cent over the last year, we think risk/reward has improved. We now have MTL trading at a 13-per-cent/14-per-cent sustaining FCF yield on our FY25/26 estimates, which strikes us as compelling for a business that owns significant real estate, has a strong balance sheet, and minimal cross-border volume exposure. Our target declines, but represents 36-per-cent upside to the current share price, and we upgrade MTL to Outperform as a result.”
Mr. Barth’s target slid to $16.75 from $17.
Other analysts making target changes include:
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $16.50 from $17 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“While we have lowered our Q2 expectations given management’s caution about tariff and macro uncertainties in the short term, we have improved our 2025-2027 annual outlook (still below guidance) assuming MTL will successfully close the acquisition of Cole by the end of Q2,” said Mr. Gupta. “We continue to like MTL given its modest cross-border exposure (less than 5 per cent), well-diversified business with 39 business units across various verticals, solid balance sheet to weather any storm or to take advantage of M&A opportunities, and very attractive valuation with EV/EBITDA multiple back to the pre-pandemic trough of approximately 6 times. MTL also offers high FCF yield of 15 per cent (net of leases) and dividend yield (safe) of 6.8 per cent.”
* Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds to $18.25 from $18.75 with a “buy” rating.
“MTL reported Q1 results that came in slightly below our estimates but were up year-over-year as a result of acquisitions and overall steady performance from most business lines,” said Mr. Reynolds. “Overall outlook and guidance remain intact with additional details and closing of the Cole Group acquisition expected over the coming weeks.”
=====
While acknowledging “ongoing demand strength,” TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison thinks it “sees appropriate” to reduce his forecast for Aritzia Inc. (ATZ-T) given “the consumer outlook has been muddied by economic uncertainty.”
“Aritzia appears to be outperforming peers as new products resonate/new stores achieve attractive paybacks,“ he said. ”That said, we are proactively lowering our financial outlook due to rising consumer risks, but view the pullback as an opportunity to own an industry leader with a dislocation to its EPS potential.”
Ahead of their May 1, Mr. Morrison did maintain his forecast for the Vancouver-based clothing retailer’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, expecting earnings per share to more than double from the same period a year ago, despite one less week. He expects 23-per-cent revenue growth as “new products resonate driving positive SSSG, square footage increases from wrap stores/flagships, and initiatives support eCommerce growth.”
His EPS estimate is currently 71 cents, exceeding the consensus on the Street by a penny.
“Exposure [to tariffs] seems to oscillate for Aritzia as the U.S. administration implements/updates applied tariff rates,” he said. “Despite notable tariff exposure to U.S. imports, we feel Aritzia has a many options available to mitigate exposure including sourcing, tariff sharing with vendors, and as required modest price increases. We view the greater risk to be the economic outlook leading to a decline in disposable discretionary spend. We feel it is prudent to address this prior to the quarter, as we surmise management will take a cautious approach to F2026 guidance in light of the uncertain consumer/economic outlook. While we are lowering our financial forecasts, we note current data indicates demand trends remain favourable.”
Despite his reduction, Mr. Morrison thinks a recent decline in the company’s shares.
“Aritzia has its brand strength back after a logistics misstep postpandemic,” he explained. “This is illustrated in F2025 by new store expansion, revenue growth, margin expansion and strong EPS growth. This led to management confidence improving last quarter in its F2027 guidance metrics that infer $3.50 in EPS. While the timing of this target may be pushed out, we believe its growth strategy supports it being achieved in time. Recall also Aritzia has more than $200-million in net cash, and a positive FCF outlook aided by a declining capital expenditure profile.”
Keeping a “buy” recommendation, he lowered his target for its shares to $66 from $74. The average is $69.60.
Elsewhere, Stifel analyst Martin Landry thinks “investors should buy Aritzia ahead of the Q4FY25 print.
“We expect Q4FY25 results to come above sell-side consensus expectations, but closer to buyside expectations,” he said. “Management is expected to introduce a financial guidance for FY26 and we believe the guidance will be above expectations reflected by our above-consensus FY26 EPS estimate of $2.60. We have assumed that import tariffs will have a limited impact on Aritzia’s margins as the company offset these impacts with price increases and concessions from suppliers. While this may be a ‘blue-sky scenario’, some peers have taken this approach. Cash is building on the balance sheet, with approximately $250-million cash at fiscal year-end, providing flexibility for an aggressive buyback program. Valuation is compelling with shares trading at 13x forward earnings and hence, we recommend investors buy ahead of the quarter in anticipation of strong Q4FY25 results and FY26 guidance above expectations.”
Mr. Landry maintained his “buy” rating and $73 target.
=====
CIBC World Markets analyst Mark Jarvi and Robert Catellier made a series of target price adjustments to energy infrastructure companies and power producers in their coverage universe on Thursday ahead of earnings season.
“We have modified estimates for the Midstreamers under coverage to reflect colder weather in Q1/25 and lower marketing margins going forward, including frac spreads and crack spreads, largely due to concerns on tariffs,” they said. “Notably, the forward curve for oil prices is $10/Bbl lower since ‘Liberation Day’ and is in backwardation. We expect solid results for the regulated utilities (should meet/beat consensus), which would sustain the momentum in names that are benefiting from a flight to stability in these uncertain times. For Power companies, we expect mixed results but overall we’re biased to the downside given unfavourable weather trends and moderating power prices in key regions (e.g., Alberta). As much as we see more value and upside in the Power names, Q1 results/updates likely won’t be catalysts to help surface this value. Clarity on tariffs and U.S. clean energy policy is likely needed for a meaningful Renewables or Midstreamers sub-sector recovery.”
Mr. Jarvi made these changes:
- Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N/AQN-T, “neutral”) to US$5.25 from US$5. The average is US$5.39.
- Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “outperformer”) to $64 from $63. Average: $59.73.
- Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “neutral”) to $69 from $68. Average: $66.17.
- TransAlta Corp. (TA-T, “outperformer”) to $19 from $19.50. Average: $18.05.
"We are above consensus for AQN — we assume solid load, O&M control and new rates at some utilities will drive slightly better-than-expected results. Further, we don’t expect AQN to provide its multi-year outlook and growth plan until post its Q1 results (late May or early June). While we expect H to post a stronger quarter (we raised our Q1 EPS estimate by 5 per cent), we believe that’s being reflected in consensus, and to announce an annual dividend increase of approximately 6.0 per cent. For ACO.X/CU, EMA and FTS, we are in line with consensus," he said.
Mr. Catellier’s revisions are:
- Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, “outperformer”) to $47 from $48. Average: $46.39.
- Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T, “outperformer”) to $26 from $27. Average: $25.42.
- TC Energy Corp. (TRP-T, “neutral”) to $71 from $70.
"On average, our Q1 EBITDA estimates are 0.6 per cent below consensus (excluding TWM and LCFS), but there are some wider variances on a per share basis due to below-the-line items. We are materially below consensus for TWM and LCFS due to crack spreads, both off a small base," said Mr. Catellier.
=====
Seeing Kraken Robotics Inc. (PNG-X) “democratizing cutting-edge technology,” National Bank Financial analyst John Shao initiated coverage of the Mount Pearl, Nfld.-based marine technology company with an “outperform” rating, projecting a 10-20-per-cent EBITDA growth over a 10-year horizon, 3-per-cent terminal growth rate and a 9-11-per-cent discount rate.
“In the past decade, Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) has been an emerging technology in both military and commercial markets,“ he explained. ”Although it was considered costly, Kraken’s years of research efforts have effectively democratized this technology by lowering the entry barriers and broadening its use cases.
“Our detailed benchmark analysis suggests Kraken’s MINSAS is leading the market with exceptional performance metrics, while other considerations, such as pricing and ease of use, make this product a well-rounded one to be integrated with its own or partner platforms. Leveraging the same MINSAS technology, Kraken offers a towed SAS platform called KATFISH that combines accuracy and speed to replace traditional vehicles with limited flexibility. This platform has been trusted by customers such as the Royal Danish Navy and the Polish Navy.”
In a research report titled Unleashing the Kraken: Riding the Waves of Autonomous Innovation, Mr. Shao pointed to several factors in justifying his bullish stance, including limited competitors providing advanced subsea batteries, a “solid track record of consistent execution in commercializing its market-leading products and services” and strong market momentum.
“Multiple macro and geopolitical considerations, such as the imminent navy upgrade cycle, an increasing occurrence of unmanned equipment in modern warfare and Europe’s shift towards large military spending, have created multi-year market tailwinds for the Company,” he said.
“As a product company, Kraken has a history of making select acquisitions to expand into adjacent verticals. That acquisition strategy, coupled with the Company’s internal development of next-generation products, further entrenched Kraken’s market leadership.”
Seeing Kraken as an “attractive target of industry consolidation” given its “market-leading technologies on a relatively small but fast-growing platform,” Mr. Shao set a $3 target for its shares. The consensus on the Street is $3.33.
“All in, considering the existing cash balance and proceeds from the recent offering, we believe Kraken has a healthy balance sheet with ample financial flexibility to pursue its growth opportunities,” he said.
=====
In a report titled Betting on the bull, Desjardins Securities analyst Allison Carson initiated coverage of Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) with a “buy” recommendation, expecting its stock to re-rate as the Media Lune mine at its Morelos Gold Property in Mexico achieves commercial production and becomes free cash flow-positive in the second half of the year.
“Torex is led by a strong management team, with Jody Kuzenko having served as CEO since 2020,“ she said. ”The company has achieved guidance for the past six years, demonstrating consistent operating capabilities. The self-funded Media Luna build has tracked relatively on schedule and within the revised budget of US$950-million. Mining at Media Luna is ahead of schedule, with the potential for a quicker-than-anticipated ramp-up. With management’s track record of execution, we believe future M&A by this team would be well-received and could help diversify the company’s single-asset risk and grow its production profile beyond what could be achieved organically.“
”Torex has demonstrated exploration upside both nearmine and with additional deposits. At ELG underground, the company has been able to extend the minelife to 2029. In addition, through the delineation of the EPO project, the company has improved its production profile to 2035, with average production of 422koz per annum. As the Media Luna build comes to completion, Torex has a renewed focus on exploration, with a budget of US$45-million in 2025. We believe the Morelos complex has significant exploration upside remaining and expect Torex will be able to find additional ounces to extend the minelife beyond 2035. The operation is well-positioned for additional ounces in the mine plan through minimal capex as mining infrastructure was built to accommodate additional throughput from new mining areas."
Seeing a “solid” balance sheet and expecting Torex to return capital to shareholders through either a dividend or share buybacks as liquidity increases, Ms. Carson sees a “good entry point with re-rate potential” for the Toronto-based company.
“Torex has nearly completed the Media Luna build, a key derisking milestone which we believe offers a good entry point,” she said. “We expect Torex to continue to re-rate as (1) Media Luna construction concludes in 1H25 and ramps up into 2026; and (2) Torex returns to positive free cash flow in 2H25. We believe Torex should trade in line with peers given it is a consistent operator with a renewed focus on exploration and with the potential to extend the minelife beyond the current reserve life of 2035.”
Her target of $60 exceeds the $50 average.
=====
In other analyst actions:
* Canaccord Genuity’s Doug Taylor initiated coverage of HEALWELL AI Inc. (AIDX-X) with a “speculative buy” rating and $2.50 target. The average on the Street is $3.66.
“The company has emerged from a series of transactions, culminating with the recently completed Orion acquisition that we project transforms HEALWELL into a profitable pure-play on the theme of artificial intelligence applied to improving healthcare outcomes,“ he said. ”This is delivered through a platform that brings together emerging high-growth artificial intelligence technologies with more traditional clinical services businesses to improve outcomes for patients, healthcare systems, and the life sciences companies servicing them. We rate the company as SPECULATIVE as its strategy requires the company to depend on transactions (financing and M&A) that support this vision in an accretive manner. Such models inherently carry a higher risk profile until the M&A program and self-funding motion are better established.”
* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti initiated coverage of Vancouver-based Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Ltd. (SXGC-X) with a “buy” rating and $6.25 target, exceeding the $5.38 average on the Street.
“We view Sunday Creek as a uniquely positioned project among a scarce peer group of attractively valued, independently-owned, Tier-1 greenfield assets, with high grade potential for a multimillion ounce deposit and a call option on antimony prices,” he said. “SXGC’s strategy has been highly-focused and capital efficient, fully funded for its 2025 exploration program and pre-development planning, with approx. $16-million in cash and no warrants outstanding. With its drilling program now exceeding 73,000m and major mineralized zones increasingly showing more significant continuity with increasing grade, SXGC is entering a pivotal phase in 2025 as it targets a maiden resource, pre-feasibility study (PFS) planning and a pathway toward development.”
* Previewing quarterly earnings for Canadian auto industry participants, CIBC’s Krista Friesen cut her targets for Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) to $278 from $286 with an “outperformer” rating, Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T) to US$33 from US$36.50 with a “neutral” rating and Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) to $8.50 from $8 with a “neutral” recommendation. The averages are $267.54 and $11.63, respectively.
“Unsurprisingly, we expect the main focus will be on tariffs, specifically what tariffs are in play at the time of reporting, how the industry is looking to manage tariffs and what the near-term impact to sales and production is estimated to be, and therefore 2025 guidance,” said Ms. Friesen. “We will also be looking for comments around capital allocation and how companies are thinking about their NCIBs given where their share prices are currently trading. Depending on if additional auto tariffs are enacted on May 3, there could be a significantly different tone at the beginning of earnings season versus the end.”
“BYD Is Our Favoured Name Into The Quarter: Our top pick heading into the quarter is BYD [”outperformer" rating and US$278 target]. We believe it is more sheltered than the other names from tariffs, and could potentially even benefit from tariffs in the event they drive up used car prices. For BYD we will be looking for commentary around claims volumes and if they think the bottom is in sight, and for some colour around when the company thinks it might start to see positive SSSG. The company is trading at ~9.7x 2026 consensus EBITDA and we have historically viewed sub-10x as an attractive entry point for the name.”
* National Bank’s Zachary Evershed cut his Cascades Inc. (CAS-T) target to $11 from $14 with a “sector perform” rating ahead of its May 8 quarterly release. The average is $13.17.
“While CAS is insulated from direct tariff impacts with CUSMA compliance, the drag from second-order impacts as cross-border shipments of tariffed goods slow (and consumer sentiment craters) frames growing uncertainty in our outer year forecasts, as we note CAS’ Packaging profitability is highly sensitive to economic conditions,“ he said. ”As such, we lower our valuation multiples in our sum-of-parts methodology to 4.0 times for Containerboard (was 4.5 times) and 6.0 times for Specialty Products (was 7.0 times), seeing our target fall ... While the company has continued to improve the quality of its asset base, and we believe the renewed focus on profitability maximization will bear fruit in a stable operating environment, we see undue risk given the sensitivity of Containerboard profitability to a potential economic slowdown and opt to remain on the sidelines, reiterating our Sector Perform rating despite the increasingly attractive compressed valuation.”
* In a report previewing quarterly reports from Canadian property and casualty insurance providers, Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young raised his targets for Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) to $320 from $315 with a “buy” rating and Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T) to $67 from $64 with a “hold” rating. The averages are $298.46 and $63.56, respectively.
“Catastrophic (CAT) weather-related (and non-weather-related) events in Canada, the U.S. and Europe negatively impacted results for IFC and DFY in 1Q25 (we do not expect TSU to be materially impacted), although the impact was not overly material and was somewhat expected in our view,” he said.
“We expect P&C insurance market (pricing) conditions to remain favourable for the most part and for inflation to moderate sequentially, specifically in personal auto. All three companies do not seem concerned about potentially inflationary pressures from U.S. tariffs—any change to this point of view?"
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay dropped his Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) target to 30 cents from 60 cents with a “hold” rating. The average is 25 cents.
“2Q FY25 missed expectations as macro headwinds are impacting consumer demand,” he said. “A large contraction in the number of active customers weighed on results, although gross margin protection enabled slightly positive adjusted EBITDA. FOOD is seeing some stability in the customer count so far in 3Q. While we are pleased that no further deterioration has been observed, we also believe a sharp positive reversal is unlikely in the current environment.”
* In response to Wednesday’s quarterly release, National Bank’s Adam Shine trimmed his Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) target by $1 to $52 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini to $56 from $60 with a “buy” rating, Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to $44 from $41 with a “buy” rating and Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $48.50 from $49.50 with a “sector perform” rating.. The average is $51.54.
“The factors that drove us to be more tepid in our recommendation on the stock have not reversed,“ he said. ”The underlying cash generation of the business still needs to improve and the factors pressuring subscriber growth in wireless and broadband are factors that are hard for the company to reverse as they are affecting the whole industry. There is however, a large upside between the current stock price and our target. That difference, mostly related to the value that we attach to the sports franchise, can only close when either of two things happen: 1) MLSE is taken public or 2) a material part of the business is sold to a minority shareholder crystallizing the value of the assets. We believe these two avenues to crystallize value are possible, but the timing is hard to forecast."
* In reponse to in-line quarterly results, Raymond James’ Brad Sturges moved his StorageVault Canada Inc. (SVI-X) target to $4.75 from $4.70 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $4.93.
“The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) updated its Canadian housing activity forecast in April, which now suggests relatively stable housing resale transaction activity year-over-year in 2025. CREA also noted that an increasing number of homebuyers remain on the sidelines and are deferring housing decisions amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Our Outperform rating for StorageVault reflects: 1) StorageVault’s NAV/share and P/AFFO multiple discount valuation; 2) reduced selling pressure in StorageVault’s shares following its S&P/TSX Composite Index deletion event in March; and 3) the potential for StorageVault to generate improving 2026E AFFO/share growth year-over-year,” he said.
* In a note previewing quarterly results for Canadian heavy equipment dealers, TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne lowered her targets for Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T) to $143 from $150 and Wajax Corp. (WJX-T) to $21 from $22 with “buy” ratings for both. The averages are $136.28 and $21.75, respectively.
“Tariffs should have a limited direct impact on Finning/Toromont/Wajax,” he said. “The indirect effects are uncertain, but strong backlogs and product support provide a source of ballast. Toromont is historically the most defensive of the three stocks, and we see no reason for that to change, but Finning [”buy" rating and $50 target] is already trading at a trough-like multiple and may get to demonstrate its improved earnings resiliency."