Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Anticipating Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) will reach a free cash flow inflection point as earnings begin to recover, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong raised his rating for the Winnipeg-based farm machinery and equipment company to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We think North American Farm has reached a low-point and should eventually recover while the Commercial segment continues to perform well,” he said. “Ag Growth has also managed to maintain higher margins through broader market and ag market volatility, giving us greater confidence in underlying operations. As earnings recover and investment spending declines, we anticipate a FCF inflection in 2026/2027 (10-per-cent/14-per-cent FCF yield.”
In a note released before the bell, Mr. Wong predicted the “softness” scene in the company’s Farm segment likely reached a low point in the first quarter with revenues dropping 50 per cent year-over-year, and he also emphasized the performance of its Commercial business “continues to impress.”
“Crop prices have remained stable through H1/25, 2025 planted crop acreage and crop production are relatively high, and dealer- held inventories have declined according to management,” he added. “Visibility into H2/25 remains low, but we expect a modest recovery off recent lows and likely normalization into 2026. We forecast 5-per-cent year/year growth in H2/25 off easy comps and 8 per cent in 2026 as Farm demand recovers.”
“Commercial segment growth has been underpinned by large project wins in Brazil and strong performance in India, and 2025 sales growth is supported by a healthy order book despite broader macro volatility. As the company delivers on large projects and invests in manufacturing capabilities in India, we see building momentum complemented by the broader food security thematic that should provide a longer term tailwind to the segment’s growth.”
Also expecting margins to remain stable, seeing the impact of tariffs to be “minimal,” Mr. Wong did lowered his 2026 and 2027 estimates due to “more conservative Farm segment forecasts and slightly lower margins, but raise our valuation multiple to 7 times (from 6.5 times) on improving cash generation and moving off the ag market bottom.”
That led him to raise his target for Ag Growth shares to $50 from $40. The average target on the Street is $48.75, according to LSEG data.
=====
Expecting the impact of tariffs on Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) to go “most likely backward and down,” National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine raised his rating for the Toronto-based toymaker to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“We’ve been waiting on at least three key developments,” he said. “Besides news of TOY finding a new CFO (announced April 24, starting mid-May) after a process which began last summer, we also wanted to get through 1Q reporting to hear what TOY and its two key peers, Hasbro [HAS:NASDAQ, not rated] and Mattel [MAT:NASDAQ, not rated], had to say about U.S. tariffs and mitigating actions being pursued. On Tuesday, after China and the European Parliament agreed to lift restrictions on mutual exchanges between their legislative bodies, it was revealed that the United States and China would engage this weekend in Switzerland on trade & economic issues - a rather important first step toward diffusing the recent escalation in tensions.”
While Mr. Shine cautioned tariff rates are likely to remain “quite fluid” and there will likely will not be special exemptions for toys, he predicts “gravity is likely to set in” and emphasized Spin Master’s exposure to China is declining.
“The White House has noted that 145 per cent on China isn’t sustainable and will come down,” he said in a research note. “We’ll see if a 90-180-day pause occurs to allow for negotiations or if the rate gets dropped initially to 50 per cent. A rate of 10 per cent now applies to the EU and especially other Asian countries where TOY outsources manufacturing (Vietnam, India, Indonesia), with Trump suggesting he may set rates in the next 2-3 weeks which are expected to be below the April 2 figures. As fewer containerships arrive at U.S. ports in May and comments about future empty shelves ratchet up, there’s a growing sense of the need for a reset on tariffs, as retailers ready orders through 2Q ahead of expected 2H sales.
“The Toy Association advocates for a zero-to-zero global tariff policy on toys. In the meantime, TOY aims to reduce percent of China-sourced products imported to United States from 55 per cent to 30 per cent by 4Q25 and 20-25 per cent by 4Q26. This plus SKU & cost management, pricing actions, and deferral of some 2025 capex (we see capital intensity at 6-7 per cent vs. prior 8-9 per cent guide) is to deliver over $100-million in cash flow savings this year. We reduced 2025E Adj. EBITDA by $67-million but this will prove too conservative if China rate falls to 50 per cent.”
Despite the earnings forecast reduction, Mr. Shine raised his target for Spin Master shares to $29 from $26. The average on the Street is $33.14.
=====
National Bank Financial analyst Matt Kornack thinks the catalysts for Minto Apartment REIT (MI.UN-T) “look light” in 2025 and its valuation is “not enough to inspire investor demand.”
Accordingly, following Tuesday’s release of weaker-than-anticipated first-quarter financial results, he lowered his rating for the Ottawa-based REIT to “sector perform” from “outperform” previously.
Minto reported funds from operations per unit of 22 cents, falling a penny below the estimates of both Mr. Kornack and the Street, as same-property net operating income slid 0.4 per cent year-over-year.
“Q1 results were light given a lower-than-expected NOI print and management’s outlook for 2025 was less than rosy,” said Mr. Kornack. “While operating stats seem to be holding in from an AMR and post-quarter occupancy standpoint, it appears that this is being achieved on the back of pricing adjustments and incentive usage. The REIT’s higher quality offering is competing against urban condo deliveries in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. While valuation is attractive and medium-term outlook remains positive, REIT investors aren’t starved for choice when it comes to discounted names and MI’s catalysts are uncertain.”
After reducing his forecast for both 2025 and 2026, Mr. Kornack trimmed his target for Minto units to $14 from $15. The current average is $16.
“We adjusted our net effective rent expectations lower given more competition at the higher end for multi-family offerings in Canada’s largest urban centres,” he said. “We expect incentives usage to eat into the MTM [mark-to-market] opportunity as the market absorbs excess supply. On the development front, the push out of delivery timelines combined with lower capitalized interest negatively impacted the earnings trajectory. On NAV, our estimate was less impacted due to our occupancy normalization assumption, and we moved our NOI estimate one quarter forward.”
Elsewhere, Raymond James analyst Brad Sturges downgraded Minto to “market perform” from “outperform” and reduced his target to $15 from $15.75.
“We adjust our rating for Minto to MP3 (prior: OP2) to reflect: 1) expectations for relatively stable SP-NOI and AFFO/unit results in a tougher operating environment over the balance of 2025; 2) the potential for operating headwinds to persist given Minto’s above-average exposure to Canadian urban MFR markets such as Toronto and Calgary that are expected to experience greater leasing competition from new purpose-built rental and shadow condo supply deliveries; and 3) possibly greater affordability challenges within the higher-end segment of its MFR portfolio. While we highlight that Minto’s unit price is deeply discounted to estimated NAV/unit, we suggest that potential near-term positive catalysts may appear to be more limited,” he said.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $17.50 from $19.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“MI did not sugarcoat its 2025 outlook – it is likely going to be a more challenging year. Occupancy is being pressured by condos and new rentals in Toronto and Calgary. MI is relatively more exposed than peers given weakest part of rental market is the most expensive cities and higher end markets. That said, it feels like a lot of bad news (though perhaps not all) are baked into the stock. MI trades at the widest discount to peers at 34 per cent or implied cap rate of 5.75 per cent. Low- expectation stories can inflect upon glimpses of trough,” said Mr. Shan.
* CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson to $17 from $18 with an “outperformer” rating.
“The REIT has made significant progress in its efforts to strengthen its balance sheet through various initiatives, and has all but eliminated its variable rate exposure,“ he said. ”At a steep discount to NAV (and with the balance sheet being cleaned up), we believe that the overhang on the unit price may still be rooted in concerns regarding the potential for dilutive acquisitions stemming from the convertible development loan (CDL) options with Minto Properties, which, all else equal, could take leverage up from its current 42-per-cent mark and reduce near-term FFO/unit growth. We believe that patience may be its own reward on this front, with management clearly articulating that any remaining options will only be exercised if and when they make economic sense."
* Scotia’s Mario Saric to $15.50 from $16.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
* TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to $17 from $18 with a “buy” rating.
=====
Raymond James analyst Luke Davis raised his rating for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” following first-quarter financial results that “underpinned by a consistent waterflood program that continues to yield favourable results and enhance capital efficiencies.”
“While the oil macro remains uncertain and we generally have a preference for gas-weighted names, we believe the company is positioned to outperform current guidance for the balance of the year and has flexibility to defer capital to improve the free cash profile in the event that pricing continues to deteriorate,” he added. “By our math the business is sustainable to sub-US$50/bbl WTI pricing, providing plenty of buffer near-term.”
Increasing his 2025 production forecast to the upper end of the company’s guidance, Mr. Davis raised his target to $5 from $4.50. The average is $5.61.
“Management noted the operational momentum created in 1Q25 is expected to serve as a tailwind through the remainder of the year — driving volumes to the higher end of the guidance range of 65-67 mboe/d,” he said. “At the same time, capital spending is now expected to trend toward the lower end of the $430-$450-million range, freeing up an incremental $20-million for shareholder returns and debt repayment. Management has also shortlisted a number of projects that could be deferred without materially impacting 2025 volumes, though likely to have an impact longer-term.”
=====
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Michael Siperco sees Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-X) as “a top-tier emerging producer with significant scale and growth potential in a secure jurisdiction, which lends itself to strategic value and takeout potential.”
Following commercial production being achieved at its Blackwater mine in central British Columbia and its subsequent initial guidance, which he saw as “strong,” he gave the Vancouver-based company an “outperform” recommendation.
“Artemis achieved commercial production at Blackwater three months after the January first pour,” he said. “Throughput has progressed well with the mill operating above capacity (16.8ktpd [thousand tonnes per day] last 2 weeks), and grade reconciliation progressing to plan according to management. 2025 guidance was set at 190-230koz (200koz RBCe), including 30koz pre-commercial output while H2/25 guidance is 130-160koz at AISC of US$645-725/oz ($680/oz RBCe). These results surpassed both our prior forecasts and consensus resulting in upward revisions to our estimates as our model previously assumed a more conservative ramp-up.
“Accelerated development plan could unlock additional value The 2024 expansion study highlights the potential for an accelerated Phase 2 expansion, which could elevate production to over 500kozpa by Year 3 through a plant expansion to 15Mtpa ($600-million in capex), followed by a Phase 3 expansion to 25Mtpa by Year 7 ($850-million in capex). This accelerated expansion is not currently factored into our base case valuation but offers significant upside potential (12 per cent/13 per cebt accretion to NAV at RBCe/spot). We model substantial FCF generation, which could support the accelerated Phase 2 expansion through internal cash flows while refinancing the project facility could provide the remaining bridge."
After recalibrating his valuation to reflect Artemis’ move to producer status, Mr. Siperco set a target for its shares of $28, rising from $20 previously. The average on the Street is $25.11.
“At spot gold prices, we see significant upside potential, with our base case NAVPS [net asset value per share] rising 60 per cent to $33.16, resulting in an implied target of $38/sh,” he noted. “Artemis trades at 0.7 times NAV at spot, a 10-per-cent discount to peers at 0.8 times, with re-rating potential through operational execution and FCF delivery while an accelerated expansion and exploration could be accretive to NAV. We remove our Speculative Risk qualifier given the project is now de-risked and commercial production is achieved.”
=====
In other analyst actions:
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison upgraded Linamar Corp. (LNR-T) to “buy” from “hold” and increased his target to $66 from $59, while Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman increased his target to $66 from $61 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $64.50.
“Linamar has the potential for elevated tariff risk should the USMCA agreement not be renewed/renegotiated on unfavorable terms. We take a more optimistic view on the outcome due to supply-chain complexity, and therefore believe that the share price decline is sufficient. Despite our well below guidance forecast, we believe its valuation/FCF profile/ Industrial assets are currently underappreciated,” said Mr. Morrison.
* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay lowered his target for Adentra Inc. (ADEN-T) to $41 from $46 with a “buy” rating. The average is $40.44.
“ADEN posted solid 1Q25 results as the company continues to efficiently navigate difficult market conditions in 2025,” said Mr. Tremblay. “ADEN trades at 5.9 times our 2026 estimate, which is below its historical average of 6.2 times (range of 4.5–8.6 times) and peers at 6.9 times. Our view is that investors can lean on the sector’s positive long-term fundamentals and its valuation contraction to find compelling risk/reward propositions. We believe ADEN fits the bill.“
* RBC’s Maurice Choy raised his Atco Ltd. (ACO.X-T) target to $53 from $51 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $54.33.
“We believe that the stronger-than-expected results in Q1/25 highlight the resilience of ATCO’s earnings, from the low-risk Canadian Utilities, to the rebuilt base business of Structures & Logistics (S&L). While certain investors may be concerned that activity levels may slow down at S&L given broad macro and capital cost uncertainties, the evidence thus far suggests otherwise. Looking ahead, as we keep an eye on S&L’s financial performance, we anticipate ATCO’s diverse portfolio of infrastructure assets may give rise to a myriad of potential growth opportunities for the company,” said Mr. Choy.
* Mr. Choy also increased his Canadian Utilities Ltd. (CU-T) target to $41, above the $40.17 average, from $39 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Backed by its in line Q1/25 results, we continue to positively view Canadian Utilities’ low-risk regulated utility growth in Alberta, with the 5.4-per-cent three- year rate base CAGR supporting a sustainable earnings growth for the company. Further growth from its unregulated business remains on the table, and we expect policy and regulatory clarity to emerge in the coming quarters that may support incremental capital deployment, particularly in hydrogen and power generation. As these growth plans materialize with supportive risk-adjusted returns, CU’s current stock valuation discount versus its immediate Canadian regulated utility peers may be increasingly difficult to justify,” he said.
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges raised his Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN-T) target to $84 from $80 with an “outperform” rating, while TD’s Jonathan Kelcher bumped his target to $85 from $84 with a “buy” rating. The average is $80.35.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his CareRx Corp. (CRRX-T) target to $4.25 from $4 with a “buy” rating. The average is $3.69.
“CRRX reported a slight 1Q miss vs our forecast. However, management remains confident in bed count growth throughout 2025, which should drive operational efficiencies and lead to EBITDA margin improvement (to 10 per cent by 2H25),” Mr. Ho said. “CRRX remains attractively valued, trading at 5 times our 4QF EBITDA; this compares with U.S. peer Guardian (GRDN, NYSE, not rated) at 15–16 times EBITDA. Continued buybacks should provide share price support.”
* Mr. Ho also increased his Dominion Lending Centres Inc. (DLCG-T) target to $9.50 from $9.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $10.
“DLC delivered an outsized 1Q beat,” he said. “While housing activity has slowed in recent months, refi activity has picked up the slack. This coupled with greater broker productivity and higher Velocity penetration should lead to healthy EBITDA growth. Organic and inorganic opportunities exist to bolster the platform. We raised our 2025 and 2026 FMV and estimates.”
* RBC’s James McGarragle bumped his Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) target to $27 from $25 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to $29 from $28 with an “outperformer” rating and TD Cowen‘s Tim James to $29 from $27 with a “buy” recommendation. The average is $27.54.
“Q1 results came in strong, and we came away positive on the quarter given solid performance in Voyageur, buyback momentum, and our view that fleet refurbishments will likely lead to re-leasing of aircraft set to expire post 2026,” said Mr. McGarragle. “Therefore, we are surprised the shares are trading flat today and see year-to-date weakness as unwarranted given CHR has little to no tariff exposure. We see CHR shares as a solid value opportunity (10-per-cent FCF yield on our 2026 estimates), with low debt (1.6 times) and potential upside from M&A, organic investments, and aircraft sales.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Brent Stadler increased his Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) target to $71 from $70, exceeding the $67.95 average, with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: Scotia’s Robert Hope to $70 from $66 with a “sector perform” rating an RBC’s Maurice Choy to $72 from $69 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We like the FTS story and believe its diversification provides exposure to a number of exciting energy themes, including transmission growth, load growth (including data centres) and the broader energy transition,” said Mr. Stadler. “We believe wildfire mitigation plans are being well-received by S&P, which could open the door for the rating agency to reverse its November 2023 decision. Reducing regulatory lag in Arizona would also be well-received by investors.”
* National Bank’s Jaeme Gloyn cut his Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) target to $235 from $240 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $222.60.
"This is a noisy quarter," he said. “While we expect the shares to react negatively to the 16-per-cent EPS miss, the underlying performance is actually quite good. GSY delivered a solid quarter of growth as well as sequential charge-off and delinquency improvement that should calm investor concerns regarding the credit picture and uncertainty regarding the impacts of trade wars. In addition, the Q1 miss is primarily attributable to non-cash provisioning impacts tied to third-party macro forecasts and higher other expenses. Positively, while these factors drove a year-over-year adjusted operating margin decline, the efficiency ratio improved year-over-year (a sign that operating expenses remain well contained despite a miss this quarter). Moreover, management reiterated long-term guidance and provided Q2-25 mini-guidance that largely aligns with our forecasts. Lastly, the financial position and liquidity profile remain exceptional, allowing GSY to repurchase over 423k shares in Q1 and another 176k so far in Q2 (or 3 per cent of shares outstanding year-to-date).”
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young increased his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) target to $330 from $320 with a “buy” rating, while Scotia’s Phil Hardie raised his target to $305 from $298 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $314.92.
“We think Intact is off to a strong start to 2025, with core earnings coming in 13% ahead of the street, benefiting from stronger than expected underwriting profitability. Intact delivered an operating ROE of ~16.5% for over the past twelve months despite elevated catastrophe losses. We think this reflects the diversification of its earnings sources and the overall resilience of the business model that continues to underpin a compelling reason that Intact should be a core holding for investors. Following a strong run, valuation remains the key investor hold back. Questions about what valuation multiple is reasonable and sustainable over the coming 12 to 24 months dominate the investor narrative rather than any deep concerns related to business fundamentals. Management noted that the company is well-positioned to play offence in an uncertain environment and articulated its solid capital position and appetite for M&A, which we believe could serve as an embedded catalyst for the stock,” said Mr. Hardie.
* In response to “a universally positive update,“ National Bank’s Dan Payne raised his target for Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. (KEC-T) to $24 from $22.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $20.30.
“The company continues to positively advance value through its high-impact development in the Duvernay & Montney, and which should maintain momentum towards critical mass and a depth of shareholder value,” said Mr. Payne. “KEC is poised for a 52-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 18 per cent) on leverage of 0.3 times (vs. peers 0.4 times), while trading at 1.8 times 2025 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 3.9 times).”
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine reduced his Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T) target to $49 from $50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $48.15.
"We reduced our forecasts to reflect more conservative expectations for MFC’s WAM business (market-driven), along with lower earnings on surplus," said Mr. Dechaine
* Mr. Dechaine also cut his Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T) target to $52 from $53 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $55.22.
“We are cutting our forecasts to reflect higher expense growth and lower short-term insurance earnings,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca increased his IA Financial Corp. Inc. (IAG-T) target to $147 from $140 with a “buy” rating. The average is $141.63.
“Core EPS was in line with our estimates, supported by stronger results in the U.S. (dealer services, insurance), offset by weaker WM results. Top-line momentum (including U.S. dealer services) remains strong across the company. Growth in high-ROE WM business and excess capital support the meaningful raise in ROE guidance from the investor day. U.S. dealer service could be impacted by higher auto prices,” said Mr. Mendonca.
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch cut his Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (PNE-T) target to 95 cents from $1 with a “buy” rating. The average is 94 cents.
“We are trimming our target on Pine Cliff ... reflecting downward revisions to our production forecast prior to a resumption in drilling activity later this year,” said Mr. MacCulloch. “Despite our more cautious outlook, we still see the company generating material discretionary FCF at strip prices following its recent dividend cut, which should support rapid balance sheet deleveraging. We therefore continue highlighting the stock as the most exposed Canadian producer to structurally improving AECO natural gas prices.”
* Mr. MacCulloch cut his Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) target by $1 to $62 with a “buy” rating, while Raymond James’ Michael Barth increased his target to $56 from $54 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $59.63.
“Although the company posted another strong quarter by any reasonable account, the market appears to have been conditioned for even loftier beats based on yesterday’s negative reaction in the stock. Regardless, we continue to view SU as a beacon of stability in a volatile commodity price environment to the extent that it benefits from vertical integration and structural improvements in operations,” Mr. MacCulloch said.
* RBC’s Rob Mann cut his Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE-T) target to $9 from $10 with a “sector perform” rating, while Raymond James’ Luke Davis moved his target to $9 from $10 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $9.50.
“Obsidian Energy’s measured approach to development this year amid its revised first-half 2025 guidance is a sensible move in our view, however a lack of any near-term meaningful catalysts for the shares gives us pause until we have greater visibility on the road ahead,” said Mr. Mann.
* Following in-line first-quarter results and seeing management’s tone as “constructive,” National Bank’s Vishal Shreedhar increased his Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T) target by $1 to $97 with a “sector perform” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Ty Collin to $95 from $98 with an “outperformer” rating., Scotia’s John Zamparo to $91 from $88 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Ryland Conrad to $99 from $97 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $103.50.
“The primary takeaway from Q1 is sterling growth in the U.S. supports a bullish long-term argument for the stock, though we expect some lumpiness this year,” sai Mr. Zamparo. “In Q1 the positives clearly outweighed the negatives: capacity additions are nearly complete, product launches are being executed and this pace of U.S. growth should inspire confidence from the Street. On the other hand, margins were a bit soft (meaning higher sales didn’t trickle down to earnings/cash flow), leverage remains elevated, and Clearwater faces more struggles. Still, Q1 was a clear step forward. Ultimately, we still believe the optimal time to buy the stock will be later this year, when PBH’s Tennessee facility fully ramps and investors can gain visibility to stronger FCF in 26.”
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his RB Global Inc. (RBA-N, RBA-T) target to US$125 from US$118, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is US$110.95.
“We are increasing our target price on RB Global „,and reiterating our Outperform rating based upon: 1) another strong quarter demonstrating solid operating momentum; 2) another marquee contract win (UK-based) and global market share gains; and 3) upward commensurate revisions to our financial forecast,” said Mr. Hansen.
* Stifel’s Ian Gillies moved his Russel Metals Inc. (RUS-T) target to $53 from $54 with a “buy” rating. The average is $51.50.
“Russel reported a strong 1Q25, proving out its chops as a tariff winner. The company has experienced solid demand trends through the early part of 2Q25E, which would suggest another strong quarter ahead. Stepping back, many of the elements that drive our positive bias are unchanged which include: (1) an active M&A mandate; (2) consistent activity on the buyback; (3) annual dividend increases; and (4) an inexpensive valuation,” he said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar raised his Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) target to $20 from $18, above the $19.22 average on the Street, with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson to $19 from $18 with a “neutral” rating and TD Cowen’s Jonathan Kelcher to $21 from $20 with a “buy” rating.
“We expected a positive response from the stock on the back of 1Q reporting given the strong operational results, which saw SIA increase its 2025 retirement home SP NOI guidance, plus the announcement of another retirement home acquisition. With the wind at its back from a fundamental standpoint, the acquisition and development sides of the business firing on all cylinders and a fortified balance sheet, we expect earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 and remain elevated for the foreseeable future,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier lowered his target for Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T) to $94 from $98 with a “buy” rating, while RBC’s James McGarragle bumped his target to $76 from $75 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $83.25.
“We view this long-anticipated acquisition as positive, as Locweld adds a new adjacent growth vector for SJ. It marks a strategic shift into the $5-billion steel transmission structure market, complementing SJ’s utility poles and unlocking a new, attractive segment where wood poles have limited use. This move also opens the door to a potential re-rating opportunity down the road if SJ further transitions from a commodity-linked forest products firm to an electrical component provider—typically valued at higher multiples,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Following first-quarter results that fell “slightly” below his expectations, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny reduced his target for TransAlta Corp. (TA-T) to $16 from $20 with an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Mark Jarvi to $19 from $18.50 with an “outperformer” rating, ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $18 from $19 with an “outperform” rating, Scotia’s Robert Hope to $16 from $17 with a “sector perform” rating and RBC’s Maurice Choy to $20 from $23 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $16.45.
“With the stock currently reflecting a long-term AB power price of $60/MWh, well below our marginal cost of new baseload capacity, combined with potential near-term upside from securing commercial support for a life-extension project at Centralia and/or a data centre co-location opportunity at Keephills, we maintain our Outperform rating,” said Mr. Kenny.
* RBC’s Greg Pardy cut his Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T) target to $14 from $16 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD’s Menno Hulshof reduced his target to $12 from $14 with a “buy” rating. The average is $13.68.
“We are struggling to find a catalyst for Vermilion, despite its exploration success in Germany which has proven up about 60 bcf of natural gas that is awaiting infrastructure debottlenecking over time to fully ramp-up. The company also has a circa 15,000 boe/d disposition process underway for its U.S. and southeast Saskatchewan properties which could surprise us,” said Mr. Pardy.