Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
As Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-N, QSR-T) prepares to release its third-quarter 2025 financial results before the bell on Oct. 30, Citi analyst Jon Tower believes investor focus remains on its plan to revive growth in China.
“QSR’s primary profit centers (Tim Hortons Canada, Burger King International) likely continued to post solid growth in 3Q, while secondary drivers felt the pinch of a U.S. consumer pulling back from the category during the period,” he said.
“China/Carrol’s refranchising remain catalysts for capital intensity, though both likely require time before meaningfully adding to top-line/AOI growth. The 8-per-cent AOI [average operating income] growth in ’25 looks within reach (G&A cuts, lower marketing spend, lapping bad debt expense), but it is more challenging to get there in ‘26/’27 without more cost savings and/or outsized comp growth, and, with limited visibility here, we expect multiple expansion will remain capped.”
The analyst is currently projecting earnings per share of the quarter of US$1, exceeding the consensus estimate on the Street by 3 US cents and representing a gain of 7 US cents from the same period a year ago.
In a research note released late Wednesday, Mr. Tower laid out what he will be looking for in the quarterly release: “Key topics/questions — (1) Beverage innovation at Tims & implications for balance of portfolio. Are espresso machines on track to roll by end of year at TH? What innovation could this open up, and is there the sense that younger consumers need a faster pace of menu news? Can innovation at TH CAN inform BK US/CAN beverage plans (if not globally)? (2) Looking at 2026+, how quickly could net unit growth at Tims Canada ramp? Are there new incentives in place to encourage growth? (3) Updates on the China sale process and what shape QSR’s involvement after could take. (4) Performance of value platforms/mix trends at BK US (in 2Q, QSR said at pre-pandemic levels). Have competitors’ value efforts/attempts to account for varied costs structures informed any discussions with your own franchisees? (5) Remodel plans into 2026 (BK/PLK [Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Inc.]) and the potential for ‘sizzle’ remodels to play a larger role at BK. Are there test cases outside Miami of markets that have largely remodeled and are seeing a larger benefit?
“What the data says — (1) Yr/Yr BK US footfall slipped by 150 basis points quarter-over-quarterr (to down 3.6 per cent) though share vs the Big 3 ticked higher in Sept. (2) Second Measure data suggests both BK and PLK US sales growth slowed Qtr/Qtr mostly on weakening transaction growth. (3) Canada’s unemployment has ticked higher since 2Q."
To reflect “slight tweaks” to his same-store sales expectations, Mr. Tower trimmed his full-year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share projections to $3.68 and $4.04, respectively, from $3.70 and $4.18 previously.
However, he raised his target for Restaurant Brands’ NYSE-listed shares to US$74 from US$72, reiterating a “neutral” rating. The average target on the Street is US$76.95, according to LSEG data.
“The company has demonstrated an ability to improve franchisee profitability in core home markets across the portfolio, and we expect this broadly continues, along with strong unit growth for Burger King International, ramping of PLK brand globally and solid comp growth at TH Canada,” he said. “However, limited visibility into the economics of nascent businesses outside core markets (eg, PLK INTL, TH INTL, FHS) means it is difficult to underwrite NRG (new restaurant growth) returning to and sustaining at more than 5 per cent and layering this into valuation. At the same time, we see above-average room for near- to medium-term estimate volatility related to the Burger King U.S. brand repositioning/reinvestment (including the integration of the TAST business), particularly as the competitive set struggles to drive traffic.”
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Scotia Capital analyst Phil Hardie thinks the recent sell-off in shares of Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) has “improved the risk/reward profile of owning the stock and created an attractive entry point for investor.”
Accordingly, he raised his recommendation for the Mississauga-based alternative lender to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“The stock is now down more than 20 per cent since the publication of the ‘short report’ with valuations now nearing what we expect to be solid support levels,” said Mr. Hardie.
“We believe the central theme of the short report follows a well-worn path for short-sellers that target lenders during transitioning economies. The author alleges that GSY uses ‘pretend and extend’ practices to avoid reporting delinquencies and uses accounting approaches that delay reporting of loan losses and other expenses. We don’t buy into the report’s bearish view that delayed net-charge-offs are likely to drive a significant earnings miss for 2026, or that GSY is engaged in questionable practices. We think the key to removing the valuation overhang will be to demonstrate solid results with the charge-off rate remaining within targeted range, late stage delinquencies trending down, and interest receivable stabilizing. We see upcoming Q3/25 results as the first potential catalyst for the stock to recover.”
Mr. Hardie reiterated a $225 target. The average on the Street is $234.70.
“We think valuation levels are now approaching stronger support levels with catalysts on the near-term horizon,“ he noted. ”We remained on the sidelines following the initial 10-per-cent sell-off given our view that (1) valuation levels were near historical average but above stronger support levels and (2) an initial “show me” approach will be required for investors to come off the side lines and re-rate the stock. We believe strong support levels are likely to be found near 7-7.5 times P/E. The stock now trades at 7.6 times consensus EPS (NTM) and 7.9x our more conservative forecast. We estimate the stock trades at an 22-per-cent discount to its U.S peers, compared to 5-year average of premium of 5 per cent. On P/B the stock trades at just 2 times our Q3/25E BVPS, slightly above typical historical support levels estimated in the 1.75 to 2 times range. We expect upcoming Q3/25 to serve as a strong catalyst but believe it will likely take several quarters for the stock to fully re-rate.
“goeasy is uniquely positioned as a high-return high growth stock in the Canadian Financial services space. It is the only national, publicly traded company providing full suite of credit products to the large and underserved non-prime customer base while generating 23-per-cent ROE. With a clear runway for double-digit growth, a de-risking business model, and a favourable competitive landscape, we believe its long-term value proposition is strong.”
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National Bank Financial’s Vishal Shreehar expects to see a “moderation” in sales growth from stores under the Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd. (CTC.A-T) banner when its parent company reports third-quarter financial results next month as it “cycles a sequentially less favourable comparable base.”
The equity analyst is currently projecting earnings per share for the quarter of $2.95, which is 4 cents above the consensus estimate on the Street but a decline from $3.56 during the same period in the last fiscal year, when it benefitted from a real estate gain and insurance recoveries. Excluding those factors, the decline is 6.2 per cent, which he attributes to “SG&A deleverage, Retail (excluding Petroleum) gross margin contraction, and lower financial EBT, partly offset by positive sssg at all banners, lower interest expense, lower D&A, and share repurchases.”
“We model Q3/25 CTR sssg [same-store sales growth] to moderate quarter-over-quarter (albeit still positive; Q2/25 was 6.4 per cent) as CTC cycles a sequentially less favourable comparable base (Q3/24 was down 2.2 per cent and Q2/24 was down 5.6 per cent),” said Mr. Shreedhar. “Our data similarly suggests sales trends tapered.
“Our review of retail sales data (of the relevant categories) from Statistics Canada (until July 2025) indicates that retail sales in Q3/25 for: (i) CTR grew 4.5 per cent year-over-year (vs. 4.5 per cent in Q2/25; weighted basket); our data suggests trends improved through the quarter, albeit ending softer q/q, (ii) Mark’s grew 8.5 per cent year-over-year (vs. 10.7 per cent in Q2/25) and (iii) SportChek grew 1.5 per cent year-over-year (vs. 3.3 per cent in Q2/25).”
Also projecting retail EBITDA margin contraction and a “slight deterioration” in delinquency rates for Glacier Credit Card Trust, the analyst said peer commentary continues to emphasize a focus on value from consumers, suggesting “(i) A financially healthy homeowner cohort (positive outlook for home improvement), and (ii) A stressed middle-to-lower income cohort (continued focus on value).”
“Notwithstanding an expected moderation in Q3/25 sssg, our review of customer reviews suggests that CTR continues to drive favourable customer sentiment (even versus select global retailers in Canada),” he added. “We view this to suggest that CTR is a well-positioned retailer overall from a customer sentiment standpoint.”
Maintaining his investment thesis and “sector perform” recommendation for Canadian Tire shares, Mr. Shreedhar lowered his price target to $185 from $190 due to lower financial estimates. The average target on the Street is $175.60.
“Given uneven operating performance, and ongoing disruption related to the implementation of the True North strategy, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage universe,“ he said. ”Indications of resilient consumer spending (which are constructive if sustained) are offset by expectations for heightened near term investments.”
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After hosting investor meetings with BRP Inc. (DOO-T) executives, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Sabahat Khan thinks the targets laid out in its recently unveiled Mission 28 (M28) Strategic Plan are “a conservative starting point (with a number of potential upside drivers), and the company is well positioned to deliver sustained top-line and earnings growth looking ahead”
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“After a period of channel de-stocking and incremental uncertainty caused by tariff announcements, BRP appears well positioned for top-line growth and margin improvement looking ahead,” he said. “Recall the company introduced its M28 Strategic Plan at its recent Investor Day which reflects revenue of $9.5-billion (7-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] vs. F2025) and Normalized EPS of $8.00 (20 per cent CAGR), both of which were ahead of consensus heading into the Investor Day. Management expects to achieve top-line growth through a combination of market share gains in ORV (targeting 30 per cent/25 per cent plus in SSV/ATVs) and growth in the international business (more than $2.5-billion, or up 25 per cent vs. F2025), while profitability is also expected to be supported by cost savings/operational efficiencies ($350-million-plus opportunity).”
At the meetings, which included chief financial officer Sébastien Martel, Mr. Khan said investors were “looking to better understand the building blocks for both the top-line and EPS targets, and the degree of conservatism reflected in this outlook.”
“Our takeaway is that the targets are a conservative starting point as the company assumes no share buybacks (vs. 30 per cent of shares repurchased since F2020), a flat interest rate environment (rate cuts appear likely, in our view), a flat retail environment, and no dealer inventory build (we believe there is upside potential to the latter two assumptions, particularly in a rate cut scenario or in the case of an improving macro backdrop),” he noted.
“The company will be making investments across its business to support its growth outlook (reflected in outlook). Refinancing of its debt should drive $0.10/share of upside to F2026 Normalized EPS guidance and $0.30/share of benefits in F2027, while future rate cuts could potentially drive additional upside. Looking beyond the M28 targets, investors also honed in on the mid-cycle targets of $10-billion of revenue and $10.00 of Normalized EPS. The incremental drivers to reach $10.00 of EPS include the industry normalizing to a precovid cadence, and the benefit of dealer additions (company is looking to add +100 dealers by F2028).”
Seeing “a number of levers to drive margin improvement,” including identifying savings within the bill of materials and optimizing operations at plant level after “a multi-year period of acceleration growth,” Mr. Khan raised his target for the Valcourt, Que.-based company’s shares to $107 from $100, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $104.
“We believe BRP’s culture of innovation distinguishes the company from its peers and positions it for long-term growth. We see runway for continued growth and believe the company is well positioned to deliver strong results through the cycle,” he concluded.
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In a research report titled Harvesting Efficiency For Future Gains, National Bank Financial analyst Ahmed Abdullah assumed coverage of Lassonde Industries Inc. (LAS.A-T) with a “sector perform” recommendation, seeing “early signs of progress” from its ongoing turnaround process while warning of growing capital expenditures.
“In early 2022, Lassonde began a multi-year strategy focused on three pillars: building a growth-oriented portfolio, driving sustainable performance and improving operational agility,” he explained. “The plan targets accelerated sales growth, margin enhancement and overall profitability, aiming for a $3-billion sales run rate by the end of 2026 via organic expansion, M&A and capital investments. LAS executed early operational improvements through investments and production relocations at underperforming U.S. sites, aiding margin recovery since 2022 (Adj. EBITDA margin 2022 at 7.3 per cent & 2024 at 10.6 per cent).
“Notable progress on LAS’ strategy comes with an elevated capex profile in the near term. Capex rose to 4.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent in the last two years (roughly 2 per cent prior), supporting margin gains and organic growth of 5.4 per cent and 6.9 per cent in 2023 and 2024. Combined capex and M&A spending since 2023 totals approximately $670 million, with more planned ahead (e.g., US$200 million new plant in New Jersey, project just began). As capex remains elevated, EBITDA-to-FCF conversion is forecast to drop to around 7 per cent in 2026–2027.“
Mr. Abdullah also sees an turbulent macroeconomic backdrop as a potential obstacle to growth as well as the timing of the Quebec-based company’s ability to add capacity and “efficiently ramp up.”
“A key consideration is the uncertain macro backdrop and its impact on the state of the consumer in North America,” he explained. “Trade protectionist measures are continuously evolving, however, early signs point to a gradually weakening consumer, which may impact the timing of Lassonde’s added capacity and its ability to efficiently ramp up.
“Beverages still dominate LAS sales (approximately 80 per cent), staying on trend will be key to drive future growth. Health trends have impacted demand for traditional juices in favour of healthier options. Lassonde’s effort in pivoting its portfolio towards growth segments will be paramount in helping diversify its revenue base to drive mid-single digit growth. The Summer Garden Acquisition is a step in that direction which grew its Specialty Food category and added a solid branded portfolio with on trend brands (e.g., G Hughes Sugar Free - early entrant and leader in the growing sugar-free segment of BBQ sauces)."
Seeing an “attractive” valuation versus its peers but believing “a rerate will require execution results,” the analyst set a Street-low target of $237. The average is $255.50.
“Lassonde trades at EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.4 times 2025E and 6.0 times 2026E versus peers that are at an average of 10.6 times and 10.3 times, respectively,“ sai Mr. Abdullah. ”LAS has always traded at a discount, partly due to its exposure to lower growth segments, margin erosion (now improving), operational issues, ongoing investments and limited trading liquidity. A rerate higher would require demonstrated improvements and portfolio diversification over time."
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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Greg Pardy thinks Strathcona Resources Ltd. (SCR-T) “marches to the beat of its own drum,” emphasizing it is wasting no time in launching its planned $10 per share special distribution and undertaking further steps to boost its float shares outstanding following the termination of its takeover bid for MEG Energy Corp. (MEG-T).
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“Strathcona Resources has galvanized its market visibility in recent months amid its takeover bid for MEG Energy,” he said in a note titled Stirred, Not Shaken. “With its organic growth initiatives in hand, no hesitation at launching its special distribution and taking steps to boost its float, Strathcona (and Waterous Energy Fund) have pivoted and moved forward with their alternative game plan. It remains an open question to us as to whether Strathcona will pursue further select oil sands consolidation opportunities, but we would not dismiss that possibility.”
Maintaining a “sector perform” rating for its shares, Mr. Pardy raised his one-year target to $40 from $36. The average on the Street is $37.75.
“Under futures pricing on an ex-dividend adjusted basis, Strathcona is trading at a 2026 estimated debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 7.0 times (vs. our North American Intermediate E&P peer group avg. of 4.0 times) and a free cash flow yield (on enterprise value) of 1 per cent (vs. peers at 8 per cent),” he said. “We believe that Strathcona should trade at a modest valuation discount vis-àvis our peer group given its early-stage track record in public markets and limited public float, partly offset by its extensive reserve life and robust shareholder alignment.”
Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof hiked his target to $35 from $27 with a “hold” rating.
Mr. Hulshof said: “Met with management following termination of MEG bid. Committed to pure-play oil sands/heavy oil strategy following Montney exit. Strong commitment to paying $2.1-billion Special Distribution by year-end points to no material acquisitions waiting in the wings. Considers growth to 195mbbl/d by 2031 low-risk as largely driven by modular (repeatable) CPF construction. Float to grow from 20 per cent to 33 per cent in H1/26.”
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In other analyst actions:
* Seeing Brookfield’s intention to acquire the remaining 26 per cent of Oaktree Capital Management Ltd. it does not currently own as “an accretive deployment of capital into one of the world’s preeminent private credit managers,” RBC’s Bart Dziarksi raised his targets for Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM-N, BAM-T) to US$76 from US$74 and Brookfield Corp. (BN-N, BN-T) to US$57 from US$55 with an “outperform” rating for both. The averages are US$64.35 and US$50.56, respectively.
* Calling it a “scaled and reliable hardware tech solutions provider with growing design opportunity,” Goldman Sachs’ Michael Ng initiated coverage of Celestica Inc. (CLS-N, CLS-T) with a “buy” recommendation and US$340 target, exceeding the US$238 average.
* Raymond James’ Stephen Boland increased his target for Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) target to $3,050 from $2,900 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $2,896.92.
“We expect Q3 to be another solid quarter for Fairfax’s investment portfolio — based on Fairfax’s known public equity positions, we expect mark-to-market gains of $337-million, while the balance of the portfolio may also benefit from broader strength in equity markets during the quarter," he said.
“As certain positions are equity-accounted, not all market gains on publicly-traded holdings will be reflected in reported book value. With this in mind, we expect the gap between the carrying value and fair value for Fairfax’s equity portfolio has widened further to $2.8-billion (from $2.4-billion in 2Q25), following another strong quarter for Eurobank (shares up 15.5 per cent in Q3 in US$).