Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin sees the third-quarter earnings release from Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) as a “largely a neutral event” and continues to “look to signs of life on the macro front as we move into 2026.”
After the bell on Wednesday, CPKC reported quarterly revenue of $3.66-billion, falling in line with both Mr. Spracklin’s $3.64-billion estimate and the consensus projection of $3.67-billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.10 was a gain of 11 per cent year-over-year but a penny below the Street’s forecast and 2 cents under the analyst’s expectation as derailments weighed on results.
While the company maintained its guidance maintained, which he called “reassuring,” Mr. Spracklin sees risk “to the downside,” noting fourth-quarter trends “have not started off strong.”
“Management reiterated its 2025 guidance of 10-14 per cent, however we do not see much buffer in that guide and our modeling right at the low end of the range,” he explained. “Management gave some commentary about 2026 trends in the context of the double-digit multi-year guidance - suggesting that mid-teen EPS growth is achievable (for context, consensus is at 14 per cent). While this outlook seems positive on the surface, with the weak start to Q4 and lack of any clear signs of macro improvement into 2026; we see downside risk to that forecast.
“Consolidation discussion. CP management reiterated its cautionary language regarding the reservations it has regarding many of the key hurdles the proposed UNP/NSC deal faces. Moreover, the company was adamant that if the deal were to be approved, it is likely to come with significant concessions (which CPKC would be keen to secure) The company continued to emphasize that it does not see competitive threat from the establishment of a TransCon railroad. Finally, we continue to see CPKC as an active participant in the consolidation of the industry - should the regulator give the nod.”
With the results meeting expectations and 2025 guidance maintained alongside the “indication that mid-teen EPS growth in 2026 was achievable,” Mr. Spracklin trimmed his full-year estimates for both years, leading him to trim his target for CPKC shares to $127 from $129 with an “outperform” rating (unchanged). The average target on the Street is $121.34, according to LSEG data.
“Our target multiple remains at 20.5 times to reflect solid operating momentum that gives us increased confidence in management’s long-term targets; and which also reflects near to medium-term uncertainty related to tariffs,” he said. “Our unchanged target multiple applied to our lower 2027 EPS estimate results in our target price of $127. Our target multiple represents a premium to peers, reflecting the power of CPKC’s operating model and compelling opportunity related to the KCS integration.”
Other analysts making target changes include:
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to $123 from $122 with an “outperformer” rating.
“We still see CPKC getting to 10-per-cent EPS growth despite the slow start to the quarter. We also remain optimistic over the long-term in the company’s ability to leverage its unique growth prospects,” he said.
* JP Morgan’s Brian Ossenbeck to $124 from $137 with an “overweight” rating.
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In a client report titled Maximizing the Megawatt..., National Bank Financial analyst Patrick Kenny said he sees Capital Power Corp. (CPX-T) “gearing up for post-2026 Alberta market rebound.”
“To capitalize on recovering Alberta market fundamentals post-2026, the company expects a 40-per-cent increase in outage days in 2026 as it opportunistically accelerates maintenance activities to capitalize on future widening spark spreads.,” he said. “As such, our 2026 estimated AFFO/sh taps down to $6.87 (was $7.00), while D/EBITDA bumps up to 3.6 times (was 3.5 times), while our longer-term estimates (2027+) edge higher on slightly stronger utilization being experienced across the PJM [Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection] assets.”
Before the bell on Wednesday, the Edmonton-based company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation of $477-million, exceeding both Mr. Kenny’s $474-million estimate and the consensus projection of $476-million. It also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, including adj. EBITDA of $1.5-$1.6-billion (versus Mr. Kenny’s $1.611-billion projection) and adjusted funds from operations of $950-million to $1.1-billion (versus $1.073-billion).
“On the heels of inking a 10-year contract extension for 75 per cent of capacity at MCV [Midland Cogeneration Venture] for 2030-2040, CPX has entered into a term sheet with a leading colocation developer for a 250 MW data centre project adjacent to the facility, eyeing a 15-year PPA,” he added. “Meanwhile, the company is pursuing other expansion/colocation opportunities across its U.S. FlexGen fleet including its PJM (Hummel, Rolling Hills), Arizona (Arlington, Harquahala) and California (La Paloma) footprints representing more than 4.3 GW of net existing capacity. In Canada, CPX continues testing solutions to achieve ultimate generation of 666 MW/unit at Genesee (current MSSC restriction: 466 MW/unit) ahead of the Phase 2 Large Load Allocation process. Recall, CPX is pursuing VPPA opportunities with developers as part of the 1.2 GW Phase 1 allocation.”
Reaffirming his “outperform” rating for Capital Power shares, Mr. Kenny raised his target to $73 from $66. The average target on the Street is $67.67.
“With U.S. FlexGen comps having re-rated to 11.5 times (from 10.5 times), we highlight a refreshed SOTP [sum-of-the-parts] valuation of $73 (was $66),” he said. “Combined with new expansion/colocation opportunities, as well as $200-million of ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ cash tax savings over the next seven years, we have trimmed our cost of equity assumption by 50 bps, moving our target up to $73 (was $66). Combined with a further 20-per-cent valuation upside from the potential re-rate of the Canada FlexGen segment towards 12.0 times (from 9.0 times) upon executing long-term contracts at Genesee, we maintain our OP rating ahead of the company’s December 10 Investor Day.
Elsewhere, other adjustments include:
* RBC’s Maurice Choy to $80 from $67 with an “outperform” rating.
“The Q3/25 results and related commentary offered investors the notion that their expectations for stronger long-term power pricing at Capital Power are credible, and that the company’s stock valuation has yet to meet its intrinsic value based on its existing assets, let alone the incremental value of its platform to capture further growth,” he said. “Upcoming catalysts related to contracts and expansions are underpinned by Capital Power’s approach to collaboratively find balanced energy solutions for its range of load-serving entities - a theme that we anticipate will be reinforced at its upcoming December Investor Day.”
* TD Cowen’s John Mould to $80 from $78 with a “buy” rating.
“CPX is on track to meet 2025 guidance and continues to make progress on commercial optimization of existing assets (i.e., potential 250 MW data centre offtake at Midland). We continue to view CPX’s multiple points of potential exposure to growing demand for electricity (Alberta, PJM, re-contracting) as attractive,” said Mr. Mould.
* CIBC’s Mark Jarvi to $83 from $85 with an “outperformer” rating.
“While CPX did not directly contract a data centre customer in the phase 1 process, we still believe it has material options to maximize value at Genesee and on its Alberta assets. 2026 is likely a more muted year, but we don’t see that as an impediment to own CPX. We still see upside pricing in Alberta. Long-term contracts would help and we remain positive on CPX’s strong U.S. position,” said Mr. Jarvi.
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Ahead of the Nov. 5 release of the third-quarter financial results for Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T), National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar has decided to take a “more conservative” view, lowering his forecast to reflect his expectation for “more challenged” prepared meats margins based on input cost inflation and pricing lag.
“Our proprietary index of select pork cuts (weighted average prices of bellies, hams and trims) suggests MFI is experiencing heightened input cost pressure,” he said. “Specifically, USDA data (until partway into Q4/25) on pork cost inflation suggests gross margin pressure in H2/25, all else equal. We understand that input cost pricing of pork cuts may be absorbed and/or passed on with a lag of one to three months; notwithstanding, we believe this might, in part, adversely impact margins/volumes.”
Mr. Shreedhar is now projecting consolidated earnings per share of 51 cents, which is a penny below the Street’s expectation but up from 12 cents during the same period in the last fiscal year. His full-year 2025 EPS estimate is $1.15 now, down from $1.29, while his 2026 EPS estimate is slid by 8 cents to $1.65.
“We highlight recent peer commentary, noting: (i) continued growth of protein category, driven by consumer preference, (ii) heightened input cost inflation, and (iii) more selective spending by lower-income households (suggesting stretched budgets),” he added.
Keeping an “outperform” rating for Maple Leaf shares, Mr. Shreedhar trimmed his target to $36 from $39 to reflect his lower estimates as a decline in his valuation multiple. The average target is $36.76.
“MFI is a company undergoing transformative change, and we are intrigued by the prospects. We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution (given a long-term track record of underperformance) and commodity volatility; recent results, notwithstanding, have been strong,” he said. “We believe that MFI can re-rate higher if it demonstrates stable sales growth and EBITDA margin improvement over time. (3) MFI currently trades at 8.5 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA (excl. 16-per-cent stake in CPKR [Canada Packers Inc.]; 8.6 times including the stake). Certain branded consumer packaged protein companies trade at 9-12 times consensus NTM EBITDA (IFRS adjusted).
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In response to Monday’s announcement of its Donlin project in Alaska being included in the U.S. federal government’s FAST-41 infrastructure program, which signals broad alignment to advance the project, and pointing to its valuation following recent depreciation in its share price, National Bank Financial analyst Rabi Nizami upgraded Novagold Resources Inc. (NG-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.
“While not widely reported, we see significance in the October 27 notice from the U.S. Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council that Donlin has been included in the FAST-41 program,” he said. “Projects included in FAST-41 are entitled to comprehensive permitting timetables and transparent, collaborative management of those timetables on the Federal Permitting Dashboard. We see inclusion in the program as a vote of confidence, highlighting its importance to advancing domestic mining. This follows President Trump’s Executive Order on “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production”, and the ongoing narrative of the administration’s support of development in the State of Alaska.
“It is worth noting that NOVAGOLD already received federal permits for the Donlin project in 2018. The FAST-41 inclusion is in reference to the company’s undertaking of a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement to bolster its work, as previously reported. The supplemental analysis is to address a remand from the Federal District Court in Alaska (June 10, 2025) regarding an analysis of tailings storage. All federal and state permits granted to date remain in place while proceedings continue, including the Joint Record of Decision, 404 permit and ROW lease over Federal lands.”
Mr. Nizami emphasized his upgrade is “primarily on a valuation basis given the recent pullback” and a 32-per-cent current return to his unchanged $15 target. The average target on the Street is $13.50.
“We continue to derive our target price for from a US$175/oz total resource multiple,” he noted. “NG is currently trading at US$123/oz. expect that the company can earn a premium valuation over time based on the rare Tier 1 scale of the project.
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After “navigated the highs and lows of the housing market in recent years,” Desjardins Securities analyst Frederic Tremblay sees Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T) “solidifying its place as a leading producer of pressure-treated lumber and distributor of building products, mainly to the residential end-market,“ leading him to initiate coverage with a ”buy” recommendation on Thursday.
“We have a positive stance on Doman’s largest revenue generator—pressure-treated products,“ he said. ”In addition to its superior margin profile (vs commodity products), we like that this value-added category remains a go-to material for outdoor living spaces (eg decks, patios), which are a preferred type of renovation project. We believe Doman’s expertise, scale and portfolio of treated wood products position it nicely. Additionally, the company mitigates risks by distributing wood’s main alternative: composites.
“Given that 90 per cent of Doman’s sales are in the residential market, we see compelling upside as housing conditions progressively improve. While we are optimistic that additional rate cuts would energize home building activity, we also note that other actions taken by governments to address deep housing deficits could accelerate and augment the sector’s turning point. Home renovations are expected to be on a steadier trajectory, with market growth of 2 per cent expected in 2026.”
In a report released before the bell, Mr. Tremblay said the deployment of “excess” cash flow is “at the core” of the Vancouver-based company’s success.
“Healthy cash flow from operations and a capex-light model are providing financial ammunition for DBM’s attractive dividend (6.5-per-cent yield) and its acquisition-and-deleveraging cycles,” he added. “After peaking at 5.8 times, leverage was 4.7 times in 2Q25 and further declines are expected in the short term.
“After completing 17 acquisitions since 2007, management sees several years of runway for Doman to keep expanding its pressure-treated and specialty product operations in the US. Continuing to act as a consolidator in the treated lumber space, especially if adding new regions to its U.S. footprint, should provide new revenue opportunities with large customers and unlock cost synergies.”
Touting “compelling characteristics and opportunities to build on,” he set a target for Doman shares of $11, exceeding the average on the Street by 7 cents.
“The 27.1-per-cent potential return to our target (excluding the 6.5-per-cent dividend yield) and our constructive views on Doman’s pressure-treated wood products business, upside from an eventual housing market recovery, cash flow profile and M&A all support our Buy recommendation,” he concluded.
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In a third-quarter earnings preview for Canadian lifecos, CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden downgraded Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with a $94 target, rising from $88 and above the $92.23 average on the Street.
“Our downgrade is based on ongoing questions around Medicaid funding, U.S. medical cost inflation, and our expectation for another quarter of material net outflows for MFS [MFS Investment Management],” he said. “Q3 is seasonally a higher-utilization quarter for dental claims and that could lead to another quarter of unfavourable experience. We are concerned about stop-loss results for Q4 (not Q3) based on commentary we have read on medical cost trends. We assume MFS net outflows of US$13-billion, similar to the US$14-billion last quarter. SLF has given up all of its premium valuation as it trades at an 11.1 times P/E (NTM consensus), which is a 2-per-cent discount to the group average, vs. a historical premium of 11 per cent.”
His other target revisions are:
* Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO-T, “outperformer”) to $65 from $57. Average: $60.64.
* Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC-T, “neutral”) to $49 from $44. Average: $49.86.
“We expect the group to post a strong set of results based on rising equity markets, CSM growth and share buybacks. We assume annual actuarial reviews are neutral to positive given trailing insurance experience. The discount to banks is not that different from the historical average and consensus estimates look more fulsome than they did earlier this year. We like the group, but see more upside with the banks given potential for positive EPS revisions and banking deregulation. Our favourite lifeco going into Q3 results is GWO,” he said.
“GWO has performed exceptionally well since Q2 results (up 14 per cent) and we expect another set of strong results with Q3. Equity markets and expected new plan wins should benefit Empower retirement. We also like near-term fundamentals in the Europe and CRS segments and expect strong earnings growth in both of these. Relative valuation is reasonable as the stock trades at an 11.5 times P/E (NTM consensus), a 1-per-cent premium to the group, vs. a historical premium of 8 per cent.”
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In other analyst actions:
* RBC’s Matthew McKellar cut his Acadian Timber Corp. (ADN-T) target to $17 from $18 with a “sector perform” rating, while Raymond James’ Daryl Swetlishoff cut his target to $18.50 from $20 with an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $18.50.
“Acadian reported Q325 Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5-million, below our forecast of $5.7-million and FactSet consensus of $4.8-million,” said Mr. McKellar. “Acadian’s pivot to internal harvesting operations in Maine continued to weigh on results, although the company noted it expanded its workforce in Q3 and saw improving production levels as it ended the quarter, and we remain optimistic about an internal model helping Acadian ramp up its harvest levels in the state over time. We expect a slightly negative reaction in trading tomorrow and see better relative opportunities in our coverage group for now.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch trimmed his Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) target to $14.50 from $15 with a “buy” rating to reflect higher corporate debt levels. The average is $14.27.
“Although depressed western Canadian natural gas prices provided an immense headwind during the quarter, we believe the company took the appropriate steps to limit the damage while preserving future resource value. We remain focused on developments from the board’s special committee review of strategic alternatives, which we ultimately expect to unearth a corporate buyer,” said Mr. MacCulloch.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho bumped his Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T) target to $25 from $24.50 with a “buy” rating. The average is $24.46.
“AD reports 3Q results after market on November 5, with a call the following day,” said Mr. Ho. “We factored in modest FV gains as well as FX tailwinds for this quarter. We also took the opportunity to factor in new US$52.7-million in capital deployment and AD’s new 9-per-cent distribution increase (attractive 7.6-per-cent yield). With US$150-million in dry powder, AD has ample financial flexibility. ... Our investment thesis follows: (1) AD’s diverse portfolio is well-positioned to weather an economic downturn; (2) its foray into managing third-party capital adds another revenue stream; (3) a strong balance sheet supports continued pace of deployment; (4) healthy sub-70-per-cent payout ratio; and (5) it is attractively valued at 0.83 times P/BV, with a 7.6-per-cent distribution yield.”
* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof moved his Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH-T) target to $7 from $6.50 with a “hold” rating, while Raymond James’ Luke Davis bumped his target to $7 from $6.50 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $7.17.
“Another solid quarter of performance, including a 4-well DEC pad boasting IP30 rates that more than held their own vs. peers in August. Leismer expansion spending 50-per-cent complete by year-end and targeting substantial completion by YE26 (initial ramp to 32mbbl/d from 28mbbl/d in H2/26). Path forward for Corner becoming more clear with a potential organically funded first phase (15mbbl/d) by 2029,” he said.
* CIBC’s Luke Bertozzi raised his Centerra Gold Inc. (CG-T) target to $21 from $20 with an “outperformer” rating, while Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur moved his target to $16.75 from $16.50 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $17.
“Centerra delivered strong Q3 results, exceeding expectations on both EPS and FCF. However, a slight miss at Mount Milligan tempered the stock’s upward move. The company has reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and continues to advance value maximization initiatives across its extensive portfolio. Centerra’s project pipeline differentiates it from its peers and, in our view, remains underappreciated,” said Mr. Bertozzi.
* TD Cowen’s Brian Morrison moved his Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) target to US$74 from US$73 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Barclays’ Paul Kearney to US$70 from US$64 with an “overweight” rating and Scotia’s John Zamparo to US$66 from US$62 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is US$71.10.
“The Q3/25 results were in line, but more important, we view the HBI acquisition as the key catalyst,” said Mr. Morrison. “Combining the brand strength of HBI with Gildan’s low-cost advantage/innovation should support attractive innerwear share gains. Further benefits from material cost synergies, debt refinancing, strong FCF, and a sale of non-core assets should accelerate Gildan’s standalone EPS growth outlook.”
* Following third-quarter results that included “strong” free cash flow generation, TD Cowen’s Steven Green bumped his target for New Gold Inc. (NGD-T) to $7.50 from $7 with a “hold” rating, while National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé bumped his target to $12.50 from $11.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $10.41.
“We believe the increased exposure to New Afton better positions NGD by increasing its exposure to a higher-quality asset and increasing its ability to reduce debt, and generate strong cash flow. However, the stock continues to trade at a premium NAV to its peer group, and given the limited mine life of Rainy River’s open pit, we view the stock as fully valued,” said Mr. Green.
* In a note titled Business Transformation Takes Center Stage, Citi’s Steven Enders raised his Open Text Corp. (OTEX-Q, OTEX-T) target to US$38 from US$31 with a “neutral” rating ahead of the release of its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Nov. 5. The average is US$38.69.
“OTEX faces a myriad of questions and evolving narratives into F1Q, with a leadership transition (new CFO, interim CEO), business simplification (divesting 15-20 per cent of biz), and guidance for a return to growth,” said Mr. Enders. “Relative to stronger forward-looking metrics in F4Q, we could see a step back given the execution distractions and our CIO survey indicating moderating IT budgets. We see logic to the business simplification approach, addressing long-standing investor criticisms and potential to build a more coherent narrative around content/AI/security, yet see potential for execution missteps relative to rising expectations, with OTEX outperforming year-to-date. We are raising our TP to $38 (from $31) on 16 times CY27 EV/FCF on a potential value unlock from divestitures and an updated val regression.”
* In response to a seventh consecutive quarterly beat, National Bank’s Dan Payne his Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) target to $8 from $7.50, keeping an “outperform” rating. Other changes include: CIBC’s Jamie Kubik to $8 from $7.25 with an “outperformer” rating, Raymond James’ Luke Davis to $7 from $6.50 with an “outperform” rating, ATB Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $7.25 from $7 with an “outperform” rating and Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds to $7.50 from $7.25 with a “buy” rating. The average is $7.38.
“Another very solid period from TVE, accentuating value through positively progressing & high-return trends across its assets, which should continue to translate to maximum value creation (re-rate on-going with upside); TVE is poised for a 14-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 12 per cent) on leverage of 0.4 times (vs. peers 0.9 times), while trading at 4.2 times 2026 estimated EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] (vs. peers 2.4 times),” said Mr. Payne.
* Scotia’s Jonathan Goldman reduced his TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK-T) target to $165 from $171 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $178.50.
“Wabash National Corporation (WNC-US; not rated), a hyper-commoditized version of TVK’s EnTrans business, reported 3Q results below expectations and lowered full-year revenue guidance (down 6 per cent at the midpoint) for the third time this year. The company noted demand eased across most end markets as freight activity, construction, and industrial sectors slowed further. We reduced our TVK estimates for EnTrans and now sit 8 per cent below consensus for F4Q. Our estimates may prove conservative as we assume similar decrementals to WNC, which may be too high. Further, we model no trailer market recovery in F2026 despite the fact that trailers have a finite life and industry production is at 10-year lows (even lower than COVID),” said Mr. Goldman.