Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
National Bank Financial analysts Shane Nagle and Rabi Nizami see supply shortfalls supporting the near-term price outlook for copper heading into 2026, while they warn “some cracks” in the demand outlook persist.
“Supply disruptions at several major copper mines combined with stronger than expected economic activity led to a small copper deficit and support for higher copper prices throughout 2025,” they said. “We forecast a larger deficit for 2026 as supply continues to fall short of demand growth. The biggest swing factor remains Cobre-Panamá - which continues to progress towards a resolution (we model contributions by H2/27). Producers most sensitive to copper prices are TKO, CS and ERO for producers, and OM, TMQ and MARI for developers.”
“Despite strong U.S. data centre demand (approximately 6 per cent of capital costs allocated to copper), a softer Chinese housing sector, impacts on consumer demand from escalated tariffs and softer manufacturing outlook are all signs of weakness in underlying copper demand that could materialize. For the time being, COMEX spread remains favourable at a 3.5-per-cent premium to LME - most meaningfully positive for TKO and IE, within NBCM coverage.”
In a client report released Thursday titled Make Hay While the Sun Shines, the analysts also emphasized the investment cycle in the space is “coming back around as projects line up” and now see a “supportive” environment for merger and acquisition activity for developers.
"Government support for critical minerals projects (including copper) remains positive, capital is readily available and several Companies are looking to sanction shovel-ready projects in 2026,“ they said. ”We could see some risks to prices from rising supply; however, from a Company perspective, a wave of development tends to lead to elevated capital cost pressures, potential for delays and emerging funding gaps. At this point in the cycle, balance sheets for producers are in good shape and well supported by copper prices. TKO and ERO exhibit the highest pace of deleveraging in the current price environment.
“A compelling valuation differential exists between producers/developers, and a lack of project pipeline for several majors is expected to drive strategic M&A. Given current equity valuation, it’s most cost-effective to build rather than buy existing production. The most compelling copper developers within our coverage include FOM, IE, MARI, OM, SLS and WRN.”
Also noting the firm’s “constructive” outlook for precious metals prices is likely to “drive another year of revenue tailwinds for those names with significant precious metal by-product production,” Mr. Nagle and Mr. Nizami updated their target prices for companies in their coverage universe and revealed their top picks for the year ahead. They are:
Top Producer Picks
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $16.50 target, rising from $15. The average target on the Street is $14.42, according to LSEG data.
Mr. Nagle: “We reiterate our positive long-term growth outlook for CS as we see expansion opportunities and potential cost savings through the MV-SD district integration plan as well as several near-mine exploration opportunities to provide further scale. The Company sold a 25-per-cent stake and provided a comprehensive path forward for Santo Domingo in 2025. We believe further de-risking related to infrastructure development would be a further positive catalyst in H1/26. After lagging peers in 2025, CS shares are now trading comparably cheap at 5.9 times EV/2026E CF relative to peers at 7.3 times EV/2026E CF and are expected to benefit from positive FCF inflection point beginning in Q4/25.”
* Taseko Mines Ltd. (TKO-T) with an “outperform” rating and $8.50 target, up from $7.25. Average: $6.99.
Mr. Nagle: “Our positive outlook for TKO remains based on its transformational growth outlook from completion of the Florence development project, lower operating costs in 2026 at Gibraltar given higher grades and increased pace of deleveraging at current copper prices. With Florence at full capacity, TKO consolidated production effectively doubles, with a commensurate 20-per-cent decline in operating costs. Despite strong performance through 2025, of which TKO was one of our top picks, we anticipate a continued re-rating as the market gains confidence in thein situleach operation at Florence as production ramps up throughout 2026. Reinstatement of U.S. copper tariffs in 2026 would serve as a significant catalyst given the Company’s growth in domestic refined copper production."
Top Developers
* Solaris Resources Inc. (SLS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target, up from $17. Average: $15.38.
Mr. Nagle: “We continue to view the Company’s Warintza project as a World-class development project. With a large-scale/near-surface resource, attractive project economics, support from the Government of Ecuador and Impact & Benefits Agreements signed with local communities, we see little to deter a large-scale mining company from looking to acquire the project following technical approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) anticipated in H1/26.Precedent acquisition multiples in the base metal developer space have taken place as high as 0.8-1.0 times, with higher multiples ascribed to more advanced projects within stable jurisdictions.”
* Osisko Metals Inc. (OM-T) with an “outperform” rating and $1.25 target (unchanged). Average: $2.
Mr. Nizami: “We bring attention to the incoming resource update, which is a significant catalyst and only a few months away in Q1 2026. We expect the mineral resource estimate (MRE) to set the course for a re-rating in the next 12 months with (1) conversion of nearly the entire current 12 billion lb CuEq resource (Nov. 2024, approximately 50-per-cent Inferred) to the higher-confidence M&I classification; (2) addition of new resource areas at depth and on strike, with (3) shallow mineralized zones to reduce strip ratio, and (4) set the stage for engineering and an economic study to be released in H2 2026 that could see the project at a scale similar to Canada’s current largest copper mine (Teck’s Highland Valley). We expect the next 12 months to be pivotal for the Gaspé project to gain wider recognition towards an eventual M&A takeout, and to potentially be recognized among Canada’s national priority projects.”
* Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE-T) with an “outperform” rating and $26.50 target, up from $24.50. Average: $27.59.
Analyst Andrew Dusome: “[Foran] is set to become Canada’s newest copper VMS mine and anticipated to re-rate towards producer status over the coming year. Construction of McIlvenna Bay is 72 per cent completed as of the end of October and is tracking to begin commercial production by mid-2026. Once ramped up, McIlvenna Bay is expected to produce approximately 30-40kt/yr CuEq [copper equivalent] under the currently designed 4,900 tpd Phase 1 scenario, with ambitions to expand thoughput under a future Phase 2 scenario. While final stretch of construction remains to be de-risked over the coming months, we anticipate Foran’s ongoing stockpile buildup should support the early mill ramp up in terms of grade and costs and help drive an early FCF inflection (8-per-cent FCF Yield in 2027) and help deleverage quickly. In addition to the near-term production, Foran holds a district scale land package with highly prospective VMS targets, notably the Tesla zone where a maiden resource is in H2/26 is expected to provide further clarity to underpin expectations for Phase 2. Foran tends to trade at a premium versus developer peers due to its near-term development, future growth ambitions, Tier 1 jurisdiction, and supportive backers including Agnico Eagle and Canada Growth Fund, and the company was included in the inaugural priority list for PM Carney’s Major Projects Office.”
* Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-T) with an “outperform” rating and $5.25 target, up from $4.50. Average: $5.
Mr. Nizami: “We believe that IE is well on track to being one of the USA’s next copper producers and, importantly, providing a source of fully domestic copper cathode into the U.S. market. With the ongoing positive sentiment from U.S. Government Agencies for the development of domestic critical metal mines, we expect IE to continue to receive strong Government support, as well as interest from potential project-level strategic partners in funding the development of Santa Cruz. Permitting is largely de-risked as the project is situated on private land (no Federal approvals), with management guiding to receipt of initial permits to begin construction in H1/26. The Company is well funded to advance Santa Cruz through early works construction, and with an experienced leadership team, including Executive Chair Robert Friedland, we believe IE will continue to trade at a premium over developer peers.”
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Seeing “a relatively more attractive risk/reward profile,” BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Tim Casey upgraded BCE Inc. (BCE-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” on Thursday.
“BCE’s dividend has been derisked with reasonable FCF payout ratios,” he said. “We believe the company has achievable leverage targets driven by modest growth, synergies, a declining capex profile, and small-scale asset sales.”
His target for BCE shares remains $37. The average on the Street is $36.06.
Conversely, Mr. Casey downgraded Telus Corp. (T-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” previously, pointing to “lower growth prospects” and seeing “debt and valuation risks.”
“Despite recent share price declines, TELUS continues to trade at a premium valuation to its incumbent peers,” he said. “We believe the core telecom business is growing in line with peers and the outlook for TELUS Digital (now wholly-owned) is unclear.
“TELUS recently announced it will phase out its discounted DRIP in 2028. Payout ratios remain elevated compared to peers and dividend growth has been paused.”
His target fell to $19, falling under the $20.98 average, from $23.
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After Canadian banks topped expectations for a fourth consecutive quarter with “strong” results, CIBC World Markets analyst Paul Holden remains “positive” on the outlook for the sector, citing “excess capital, conservative credit provisioning, an expectation for improving economic conditions into F2027 and potential for regulatory capital relief.”
“2025 results got a huge lift from capital markets, wealth management and NIM expansion,” he said. “We expect the primary drivers of F2026 EPS growth will be somewhat different: NIM expansion (again), expense efficiencies and capital deployment. We think our two Outperformers are well positioned across these drivers.”
However, Mr. Holden cautioned he’s “increasingly challenged to paint significant upside for the group given valuation multiples and rising consensus estimates.
”Our two Outperformers are TD and BMO, where we believe consensus estimates remain low and where relative valuation multiples look reasonable," he said.
“The banks are trading at 12.2 times P/E (F2027 consensus), which is 1.8 standard deviations higher than average. In our FQ4 preview note we showed that P/E was in line with the historical average after adjusting for excess credit allowances and excess regulatory capital. When we make that same adjustment now, the group is still trading 8 per cent above the historical average P/E. TD is the least expensive on this basis, at a 3-per-cent premium to its historical level.”
The analyst updated his models for the banks to reflect the results, noting the outlook for credit was “not quite as positive as we were hoping.” With those adjustments, he made these target changes:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “outperformer”) to $199 from $192. The average is $184.20.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, neutral") to $103 from $100. Average: $100.22.
- National Bank Of Canada (NA-T, “neutral”) to $179 from $174. Average: $169.11.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “neutral”) to $229 from $220. Average: $232.70.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “outperformer”) to $129 from $122. Average: $123.83.
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While the Street wasn’t impressed by Capital Power Corp.’s (CPX-T) Investor Day presentations on Wednesday, sending its shares down 4.7 per cent, ATB Capital Markets analyst Nate Heywood saw it as “a positive update surrounding two MOUs [memorandum of understandings] and a robust growth outlook.”
That led him to raise his rating for the Edmonton-based to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously, pointing to “supportive” fundamentals and a growth strategy centred on M&A and optimizations.
“The presentation included a deep dive on management’s growth outlook, which will continue to heavily focus on M&A opportunities and optimization efforts,” he said “The growth portfolio includes an aggregate 25GW, with 16GW of potential M&A, 1GW of greenfield development opportunities and 8GW of optimization (uprates, expansions repowerings). Management’s optimism for growth is being driven by supportive underlying natural gas generation fundamentals, a fast and cost-effective solution for reliable generation in a North American market hungry for reliable incremental capacity.”
Mr. Heywood now expects Capital Power’s near-term focus to be on the integrating of its 2.2 gigawatt acquisition in the PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland) interconnection. He also emphasized the 2025 investor day pointed to “a continued focus on expansion through U..S natural gas M&A in the current environment.”
“As illustrated by recent acquisitions, management has a clear strategy around natural gas generation M&A between its acquired stakes in six facilities over recent years and an 16GW potential M&A backlog,” he said in a client note. “Management’s strategy has been centred on acquiring mid-life assets with attractive contracting profiles and favourable interconnection infrastructure that diversifies its cash flow base; however, appetite for merchant exposed assets in core markets has been increasing with a supportive outlook for power prices, spark spreads and recontracting opportunities. These trends should be amplified with data centre development, as CPX is positioning itself in growth markets. While CPX initially took a step back from phase 1 allocations in Alberta as it works toward a glide path for a 1GW project at Genesee, the company signed an MOU for a 250MW long-term energy supply agreement in Alberta. CPX continues to voice an appetite for further growth and has illustrated its access to capital markets with two recent equity issuances and a strategic MOU with Apollo Global Management (APO-N; not rated). With a 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA of 8.9 times, CPX is trading at a discount to IPP peers near 10-11 times.”
He kept a target of $75 for Capital Power shares, which sits below the $79.13 average on the Street.
Elsewhere, BMO’s Ben Pham cut his target by $1 to $78 with an “outperform” rating.
“While the market took a double-take on the lower-than-expected 2026 guidance and increased appetite for U.S. merchant power exposure (shares down 5 per cent), key here is we expect CPX to maintain a highly-contracted mix and significant upside optionality persist on capital light fleet optimizations,” said Mr. Pham.
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Naming Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) to TD Securities’ “Best Ideas 2026” list, equity analyst Aaron Bilkoski sees it “defensive near-term but poised to capture upside.”
“WCSB natural gas prices should improve through late-2026+,” he said. “PEY provides a strong combination of limited near-term downside risk to CF and among the highest medium-term WCSB exposure. We expect PEY to continue to achieve the highest cash margins among peers and, with significant spare processing capacity, this is truly a lower-risk, gas manufacturing machine that trades at an attractive FCF-yield.”
In justifying his bullish view, Mr. Bilkoski argued investors typical view of the Calgary-based company as “a well-hedged, dividend (6-per-cent yield) vehicle “understates Peyto’s competitive position as one of Canada’s best natural gas producers.”
“If investors look beyond the hedge-supported CF and dividend yield, they’ll find that Peyto leads the Canadian gas-weighted peers on an array of key performance indicators,” he added. Despite the positive attributes, Peyto remains one of the most attractively valued Canadian gas-focused E&Ps on the basis of FCF yield (even before the benefit of hedges).
“What Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? The investment community’s focus on Peyto’s dividend yield and hedging strategy overlooks the superior position it holds relative to its peers on key performance indicators including; costs, full-cycle margins, industry low portion of cash flow required to sustain production, industry-leading underutilized gas processing capacity, robust medium-term growth, and significant inventory depth.”
Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Peyto shares, he raised his target to $25 from $23, which is the current average on the Street, to reflect his view " that the market should focus on the company’s relative FCF yield (after all capex)."
“Peyto is well-hedged through 2026, which provides stability to its currently high dividend yield,” he concluded. “We expect Peyto to continue to post stronger-than-historical well performance from the Repsol assets, drive down unit costs, and benefit from a unique supply agreement with the Cascade power plant. Given the company’s reduced fixed natural gas price exposure in 2027E, we see significant potential upside to CF as LNG Canada continues to ramp up and basin supply dynamics improve in late-2026 and beyond.”
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TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof took a “neutral” view on the vision laid out during Vermilion Energy Inc.’s (VET-T) virtual Investor Day event on Wednesday, seeing the focus on the potential for growing excess free cash flow generation, but he stressed the achievement of its $1.7-billion target is “contingent on approximate strip gas prices and closer to historical pricing for oil.”
“Five-year plan points to EFCF inflection in 2028+ through growth (approximately 2-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] over 2026-2030) driven by liquids-rich Montney and Deep Basin, and European Gas,” he said. “Nearly 85 per cent of 2026-2030 E&D capex is expected to be allocated to VET’s global natural gas portfolio, with total production growing to 130mboe/d [thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day] in 2030 from 120mboe/d in 2026. VET expects annual capex to average $600-$630mm/annum over this timeframe, driving 8-10% annual PPS growth, while generating $1.7-billion in cumulative EFCF. However, this $1.7-billion estimate is backstopped by approximate strip gas prices and f/x, and closer to historical average pricing for oil (US$74/bbl Brent, US$70/bbl WTI, $3.50/mcf AECO, US$4/ mmBtu HH).”
In a client note titled Divesting and Investing, With FCF Inflection Focus In 2028+, Mr. Hulsof said the Calgary-based company also “emphasized a streamlined, refocused global natural gas portfolio” as “asset-level focus remains three key plays (liquids-rich Deep Basin & Montney, Euro Gas).”
“We already consider the VET story a lot simpler, but we’re hoping there’s potential for more,” he added. “As we’ve talked about in recent reports, VET has taken strategic steps to exit non-core jurisdictions, with the country count having fallen to 8, from 10 in 2024. While this has already resulted in a more streamlined portfolio, we believe further rationalization would benefit fund inflows as VET remains a complex story for its size, in our view. While it continues to operate in 8 countries, its key focus areas have been distilled down to liquids-rich Deep Basin, liquids-rich Montney, and European Gas.”
Also noting “positive readthrough for management bench-strength with numerous executives showcasing VET’s various business units,” Mr. Hulshof raised his target for Vermilion shares by $1 to $14 after revising his estimates, reaffirming a “buy” rating. The average target on the Street is
“Following the Westbrick acquisition, several asset sales and regional exits have allowed VET to reduce net debt to $1.4-billion exiting Q3/25 (1.4 times ND/trailing FFO),” he said. “While it is running a more streamlined portfolio, we believe further rationalization would benefit fund inflows as we still consider it to be a relatively complex story for its size. Following a period of significant Montney infrastructure spending, growth is accelerating while well costs have fallen materially (now $8.5-million vs. prior $9-$9.5-million guide) with no performance impact. Its Euro gas strategy is taking shape (Germany, in particular), but we are cognizant of the range of long-term outcomes (including additional Euro gas acquisitions). There are clear expectations for growing EFCF in 2028+ with management guiding to $1.7-billion through 2030 (but based on approx. strip gas prices and f/x, and oil prices more in line with historical averages).”
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* ATB Capital Markets’ Amir Arif to $16 from $14 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Key messaging was the repositioning of the portfolio in the past year with expectation for a pickup in durable free cashflow from Germany after 2027 and from the Montney after 2028 as infrastructure capex in these two plays drops off. At the same time, the Deep Basin will continue to provide additional flexibility for growth either during this period or especially after 2028 once spending in Germany and the Montney reduces. The key incremental takeaways include (1) strong IP rates for Deep Basin drilling which will show up with Q4/25 results and suggest production coming in at the upper end of Q4/25 and 2026 guidance, (2) willingness to sell its Eastern European gas assets, and (3) improved inventory expectations in the Deep Basin and Montney. While the Company did not lay out a multiyear corporate outlook, the Company did provide free cashflow outlook for 2028 and production estimate for 2030. Based on these two data points, we have updated our corporate estimates ... Our thesis on the name remains that VET is a midcap value name with room for the current multiple to expand over time as Deep Basin execution continues and as the visibility on the upcoming switch to a greater free cashflow profile in 2028+ begins to materialize,” he said.
* BMO’s Jeremy McCrea to $13 from $12 with a “market perform” rating.
“Vermilion has experienced significant share price volatility amid uncertainty around European gas pricing, leverage, A&D activity, and exploration risk. That backdrop may now be shifting,” he said.
“The company’s first Investor Day since 2018 outlined a five-year outlook anchored by structural tailwinds and disciplined execution. Management emphasized improved asset economics, strong well performance in core areas, and a focus to achieving its debt target — after which shareholder returns are set to increase meaningfully. Overall, the update should be well-received by the investor community.”
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In other analyst actions:
* RBC’s Michael Harvey raised his Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) target to $14 from $12 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $13.84.
“AAV announced its 2026 budget, featuring a capital spend of $300-$330mm set to drive annual volumes of 81,000-85,000 boe/d (15-per-cent liquids) - both figures were largely aligned with street expectations of $320-millionand 83,700 boe/d. Included in the release was an updated 3- year plan - the framework remains largely unchanged, with AAV targeting annual production growth of 5-10 per cent. Our estimates (on volume and margin improvements) and target increase,” said Mr. Harvey.
* In a report titled Canadian Cannabis 2026 Outlook: A Stock Picker’s Market, ATB Capital Markets’ Frederico Gomes cut his targets for Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB-T, “outperform”) to $8.50 from $9 and Canopy Growth Corp. (WEED-T, “underperform”) to $1.40 from $1.60. The averages on the Street are $6 and $8, respectively.
“Following 2025’s high return dispersion—exemplified by Village Farms’ 360-per-cent year-to-date surge on produce privatization/international growth vs Canopy Growth’s 60-per-cent decline on share dilution — we view the 2026 Canadian Cannabis outlook as a stock picker’s market where operational execution is paramount," he said. “Despite wide stock volatility, sector fundamentals have generally firmed up, and we expect continued improvement in 2026 driven by rapid growth in international sales and mature-market growth in Canada. With global cannabis demand outstripping supply, select LPs are expanding cultivation capacity; however, we view a low risk of near-term oversupply as operators have been cautious and disciplined in their plans. The foremost sector risk is a potential stalling of international growth due to changing regulations, but we think this would likely be temporary and not impact the long-term thesis of secular international growth. As high-margin export revenue and a healthy supply-demand balance domestically support positive FCF and net earnings for certain operators, we anticipate a re-acceleration of institutional capital flows (which we have seen early signs of) to support more efficient price discovery in the sector. Individual stock performance will likely continue to bifurcate based on international exposure, lowcost production capabilities and capacity, and ability to preserve margins and generate FCF. Consequently, we favour operators with proven international leverage, credible paths for growth, sustained profitability, and optionality.
“Among LPs, Village Farms is a top pick (leading margins, scale, Netherlands presence, material 2026 capacity expansion) alongside Decibel (highly attractive valuation, accelerating exports). We remain constructive on retailers and favour High Tide and SNDL as vehicles to play domestic consolidation, also offering embedded optionality on international and US markets, respectively.
* RBC’s Paul Treiber increased his target for Evertz Technologies Ltd. (ET-T) by $1 to $13 with a “sector perform” rating, while BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos raised his target to $15 from $14 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $13.13.
“Evertz reported healthy Q2 results, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA above RBC and consensus,” he said. “The upside reflects better than expected software & services revenue. Backlog implies quarterly bookings effectively in line with Evertz’s TTM [trailing 12-month] average. Additionally, Evertz raised its regular dividend by 2.5 per cent and announced a $1.00/share special dividend.”
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod lowered his target for North West Co. Inc. (NWC-T) to $56 from $57, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average is $58.
“Q3/25 results were in line; however, the stock sold off (down 4.5 per cent) due to ongoing near-term headwinds (primarily lower FNCFS [First Nations Child and Family Services Program] program funding, ICFI changes) and modest year-to-date FNCFS settlement payments (expected to contribute more meaningfully Q1/26E),” he said. “We continue to believe the longer-term outlook remains positive. FNCFS settlement payments expected to lead to accelerated SSSG through 2026E, combined with community-support spending programs providing longer-term demand tailwinds.
“Next 100 benefits contributed to Q3 earnings, with incremental EBIT ramping through 2025E (50 per cent of program) and 2026E (large majority) before achieving full run-rate 2027E.”