Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Shares in Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) are up a whopping 212% since the start of 2025, far surpassing the 82% rise in the TSX Global Base Metals Index. With it now trading at a premium valuation versus peers, National Bank analyst Shane Nagle downgraded the stock to “sector perform” from “outperform” even as he jacked up his price target.
According to Mr. Nagle, HudBay now trades at 1.25 times net asset value, above peers at 1.19 times, with an enterprise value of 10.9 times estimated 2026 cash flow versus peers at 8.4.
The analyst is also cautious ahead of the company’s upcoming guidance.
“HBM pre-released strong Q4/25 operating results of 33,069 t of copper production and 84,298 oz of gold production - we see Q4/25 EBITDA ofUS$460mln (Cons:US$432mln). Alongside Q4/25 financials, the Company is expected to provide 2026 operating guidance followed by a full three-year outlook later in March. Our copper production estimates are currently ~5%-10% below Consensus over that period, allowing for depletion of Pampacancha ore in Q4/25 and more conservative throughput ramp-up assumptions from Copper Mountain,” he said in a note.
Mr. Nagle raised his price target to C$40 from C$28, which would still mean a total return of about 9% over the coming 12 months.
He says the long-term growth outlook remains compelling.
“We anticipate a Definitive Feasibility Study on the Copper World development project to serve as a significant catalyst later in 2026 outlining longer-term copper growth pipeline to 235,000 tpa by 2029. There’s also some long-term optionality to be better defined including: Constancia mill expansion, Flin Flon tailings reprocessing and accelerated advancement of New Ingerbelle at Copper Mountain,” he said.
The average analyst price target is C$36.52, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Expect a modestly positive share price reaction in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP-T) today following its earnings last night, says Benoit Poirier, analyst with Desjardins Securities.
“After bearish macro commentary from CSX and UNP reset expectations lower, investors should be more than satisfied with CP guiding to industry-leading low-double-digit EPS growth despite macro weakness and tariff headwinds. Additional positives include greater buyback capacity (5% of shares outstanding vs 4% completed in 2025) and cash flow upside from lower-than-expected capex. Overall, CP continues to deliver best-in-class results in a challenging environment.”
He maintained a C$130 price target a “buy” rating after reviewing the results.
RBC analyst Walter Spracklin, meanwhile, reiterated an “outperform” rating but cut his price target to C$124 from CC$127 after reviewing the results.
“While Q4 and full year guide came in slightly below expectations, we believe management struck the right balance between conservatism around the macro outlook, optimism on its integration opportunities and confidence in the sustainability of the strong operating momentum the company delivered as it closed out 2025. On that basis, we remain encouraged by the company’s opportunity set; and we find very compelling the upside potential resulting from powerful operating leverage should the freight environment inflect in the back half, which we believe it will. Continue to favour CPKC in the rail space,” Mr. Spracklin said in a note to clients.
There was a price target cut over at Citi as well this morning.
“We maintain our Buy but lower our adj. EPS ests. to C$5.15/C$5.95 from C$5.30/C$6.00 given the cautious macro-outlook,” said Citi analyst Ariel Rosa. “We trim our price target to $86 from $88, holding our 23x target PE on our US$ ’26 adj. EPS est. As with other rails, we fear CP shares may remain under pressure given rail M&A uncertainties, but few stocks in our coverage offer such compelling growth at a reasonable valuation.”
And elsewhere, TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne cut her price target to C$112 from C$116.
The average analyst price target is C$121.45.
Organic growth in CGI Inc.’s (GIB-A-T) latest quarter showed weakness and the company now faces risks given the possibility of another U.S. government shutdown, says Canaccord Genuity analyst Robert Young. He lowered his price target on the stock to C$150 from C$155 but maintained a “buy” rating.
“CGI reported in line FQ1 results with 8% sales growth but a small organic top-line decline driven by US Federal and Canada. CGI sees sequential improvement through F26 and expanding revenue per employee but warned of continued US Federal volatility, particularly a risk of a second shutdown when the current continuing resolution, which keeps the government funded, ends this Friday, January 30,” Mr. Young told clients in a note.
“On the positive side, bookings were strong in the quarter (1.1x B2B), even considering weakness in the US Federal business (B2B was 1.18x ex US Fed). CGI estimated its global government pipeline is up ~30% YoY driven by the new focus on national resilience, while managed services mandates remain strong with B2B 1.17x alongside a ~20% pipeline expansion. This provides confidence in management’s expectation of sequential improvement through 2026 and a return to positive organic growth.”
“On the AI front, CGI continues to advance its capability, and we believe its is well suited to the less sexy side of AI like governance and data architecture and quality. CGI noted it remains active on a pipeline of potential M&A but was more implicit on its intention to be active on its buyback given the current valuation. Our estimates are largely unchanged except to incorporate the recent acquisition of Winnipeg based Online Business Systems. We remain positive overall on CGI’s durable cash generation, disciplined capital deployment, position to benefit from sector consolidation, and strong recent bookings performance despite headwinds.”
Given multiple compression in the IT Services sector, he reduced his enterprise value/next 12 months EBITDA target multiple to 10x from 11x.
CGI shares reacted negatively to the quarterly results on Wednesday, with the stock declining 2.3%. Some analysts were taken a bit offguard.
“Management’s surprisingly cautious optimism on the call and the company’s in-line results contrasted with the negative share price reaction,” commented Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil. “The AI trade (which has been affecting the sector) is alive and well this week, which may have contributed to IT services weakness. While we cannot completely rule out an AI-related effect on current organic growth weakness, CGI’s value proposition is about helping its clients evolve. Therefore, we are confident the company will adapt in the new environment.”
Mr. Dubreuil has a “buy” rating on CGI and C$157 price target.
Elsewhere, TD Cowen analyst David Kwan raised his price target to C$153 from C$145 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
The average analyst price target is C$151.15.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Doug Taylor has increased his valuation multiple on MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T), commenting that the “stars are aligning” for the company’s momentum to continue.
His price target accordingly went up to C$51 from C$37, and he reiterated a “buy” rating.
In increasing his valuation multiple, he noted a combination of better visibility to material bookings and increased space market attention for the company.
“The list of discrete potential substantial bookings was expanded this week with the K-LEO news,” Mr. Taylor commented. MDA signed a memorandum of understanding with the Korean A&D technology firm, Hanwha Systems, to explore a potential Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation. According to the analyst, the opportunity comprises up to 150 satellites, potentially representing a C$1-2 billion in booking opportunities.
Meanwhile, valuations in the sector are improving.
“In the past two months, aerospace and defense peer valuations that we track have expanded from ~15.6x NTM EBITDA to ~18.4x presently. While valuations range widely for space-specific names and can only be evaluated based on EV/Sales (3x – 50x NTM Sales), MDA would be among the least expensive on this metric (2.9x), yet with the most established financial track record. Talk of several high-profile Space IPOs (i.e., SpaceX) is reinforcing the high valuations placed on this thematic,” he said.
“We now apply 18x NTM+1 EBITDA (from 13x) in arriving at our new C$51.00TP and believe that MDA could continue to ride this latest wave of positive sentiment,” the analyst added.
Elsewhere, Beacon Securities raised its price target to a Street high C$60 from C$50 and reiterated a “buy” rating.
The average analyst price target is C$44.94.
TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison lowered his financial forecasts for Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) in advance of fourth quarter results, concerned that ongoing industry and economic headwinds are continuing to weigh on consumer demand.
“This is likely to limit near-term catalysts to the share price and in turn investor enthusiasm. At current levels there is too much value to downgrade, but we caution Spin is geared currently toward longer-term value investors,” Mr. Morrison said in a note to clients.
His price target went to C$26 from C$30 and he still rates the stock as a “buy”.
“The high-level industry data for the holiday season appears to illustrate that the uncertain macroeconomic outlook and bifurcation amongst consumers continues to weigh upon North American Toy retail sales. This may place incremental pressure upon promotional activity, in addition to a cautious approach toward inventory management by retailers,” Mr. Morrison explained. “We expect these trends to persist through H1/26, and mitigate its 2026 growth outlook despite softness in 2025.”
TD Cowen is now forecasting fourth quarter 2025 EBITDA of $106 million, and EPS of 40 cents. That’s below consensus of $120 million and 49 cents, respectively.
The analyst thinks consensus estimates may come down ahead of the company’s fourth quarter results.
The average analyst price target is C$26.95.
In addition to raising its price target on HudBay, National Bank raised its targets on many base metal stocks it covers as it revised its commodity price assumptions.
On the back of strong commodity price performance year to date, it raised its 2026 forecast for copper to US$5.75 a pound from US$5.25, while nickel went to US$8.50 from US$6.75.
Here’s how price targets were affected:
Target changed for ALS from C$45.00 to C$52.50
Target changed for BRVO from C$7.50 to C$7.75
Target changed for CS from C$16.50 to C$19.50
Target changed for ERO from C$43.00 to C$56.00
Target changed for FM from C$42.50 to C$47.00Target changed for FOM from C$5.25 to C$8.50
Target changed for IE from C$26.50 to C$33.00
Target changed for LUN from C$30.00 to C$40.00
Target changed for MARI from C$13.25 to C$15.00
Target changed for NGEX from C$34.00 to C$35.00
Target changed for OM from C$1.25 to C$1.50
Target changed for PCU from C$2.25 to C$2.50
Target changed for S from C$0.20 to C$0.35
Target changed for SLS from C$20.00 to C$22.50
Target changed for TECK.B from C$70.00 to C$80.00
Target changed for TKO from C$8.50 to C$13.50
Target changed for TMQ from C$7.00 to C$9.50
Target changed for WRN from C$5.50 to C$7.50