Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Seeing “more upside potential,” National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine raised his rating for shares of Cogeco Communications Inc. (CCA-T) to “outperform” from “sector perform” ahead of the April 9 release of its second-quarter financial results, expecting investor attention to pivot toward a “better” second half of the fiscal year.
“We’re pushing out our valuation six months and now base our target on average of f2026E/f2027 estimated DCF [discounted cash flow] and f2027/f2028 NAV, with implied EV/EBITDA 5.8 times f2026, 5.6 times f2027 & 5.4 times f2028,” he said.
“We increased Canadian Cable multiple in NAV by 50 basis points to 5.5 times as Internet loading & execution remain solid (5x too low). We also doubled terminal growth rate in DCF to 0.50 per cent (0.25 per cent too low as C.I. falls). As we look for EBITDA trend to improve in 2H26 and FCF to elevate to $600-million in f2027, CCA’s well positioned to resume buyback activity in f2027.”
Believing its fiscal 2026 guidance and commentary points to EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter, Mr. Shine raised his target for Cogeco Communications shares to $80 from $71. The average is $74.69.
Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young concluded the first-quarter 2026 financial results from Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) were “slightly positive” with “no big surprises in the divisional composition of results, and credit trends were better than expected.”
BMO shares rose 3.8 per cent on Wednesday after cash earnings per share of $3.48 topped both Mr. Young’s estimate of $3.28 and the Street’s expectation of $3.20. Adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision earnings also exceeded projections by 2 and 4 per cent, respectively.
“Relative to us, capital markets and Canadian banking beat, while U.S. banking, wealth management and corporate missed,” he explained.
“.Positives. (1) A decent cash EPS and adjusted PTPP earnings beat. (2) PCLs [provisions for credit losses] were below our estimates and consensus, and new gross impaired loan formations and net write-offs declined sequentially and vs last year. No change to management’s impaired PCL rate guidance for FY26. (3) Solid Canadian banking results, driven by higher-than-expected NIMs and non-interest income. Note: there are pockets of credit weakness in Canada (eg GTA), which we’ve heard from others. (4) Strong capital markets results. While we wouldn’t annualize this quarter when estimating FY26, the backdrop for this segment remains good.”
While he did express concern over a decline in U.S. banking earnings, driven by higher expenses, Mr. Young raised his cash earnings per share projections for 2026 and 2027 to $13.85 and $15.90, respectively, from $13.65 and $15.60.
That led him to raised his target for BMO shares to $208 from $195, keeping a “hold” rating. The average is $203.16.
Elsewhere, other target revisions include:
* Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $208 from $191 with a “sector perform” rating.
“We view BMO’s results as positive this quarter, which featured another strong performance in Capital Markets, solid upside to lending NIM on both sides of the border, roughly in-line performance on credit with guidance for losses this year remaining unchanged, and better-than-expected fee-based revenue that was aided by a one-time jump in card fees that will normalize in Q2,” said Mr. Rizvanovic. “With those dynamics, both our EPS forecasts and PT increase for BMO coming out of the quarter. Our Sector Perform rating, however, is unchanged, as we await (1) more evidence of progress in the U.S. Banking segment, which saw a modest sequential decline in ROE this quarter to less than 9 per cent; and (2) a return to stronger balance sheet growth, which was very modest in Canada quarter-over-quarter across loan categories and slightly negative in the U.S. as management works through the final stages of its optimization strategy for the latter business. We note BMO’s strong relative share price performance so far in 2026, which we believe reflects investors’ expectations for an improving ROE towards management’s target of 15 per cent exiting F2027, a key area of focus that we expect to get an update on during the bank’s next Investor Day in March of this year.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $224 from $218 with a “buy” rating.
“Overall, we came away from the quarter incrementally more positive with our model raised on the back of stronger investment banking and U.S. commercial banking revenues,” said Mr. Lee.
* Barclays’ Brian Morton to $199 from $196 with an “equalweight” rating.
“Adjusted EPS exceeded consensus estimates on better-than-expected PCLs, fees and NII partially offset by higher-than-modeled expenses. Adjusted PPPT rose 6 per cent linked quarter. Still, credit quality was benign, with GILs down 3.2 per cent and formations decreasing 21 per cent. It expects to achieve a 15-per-cent ROE by 2027,” he said.
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine raised his target to $205 from $186 with a “sector perform” rating.
Following “slightly soft” fourth-quarter 2025 results that included lower-than-expected same-store sales growth and EBITDA, National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks Loblaw Companies Ltd.’s (L-T) guidance for the current fiscal year also looks “slightly light,” but he cautioned the grocer “tends to outperform.”
“Excluding PC Financial and the 53rd week, in 2026, Loblaw expects Retail earnings to grow faster than sales, EPS growth in the high-single digits (National Bank estimate is 10 per cent) and gross capex of $2.4-billion (NBCM is $2.4-billion),” he noted. “We believe guidance is slightly conservative; L has exceeded its initial guidance in recent years . 2026 gross margin rate is expected to be flat to slightly favourable (Shoppers shrink improvement), and SG&A rate is to be flat.
[Food Retail] sssg improved through Q4/25 and momentum continued into Q1/26 (NBCM models 2.0 per cent). An offset is slower Q1/26 DR [Drug Retail] sssg (cough/cold season pulled forward to Q4/25). We believe slowing sales growth (5.2 per cent in Q2/25, 4.6 per cent in Q3/25 and 3.5 per cent in Q4/25 excl. extra week) is partly weighing on investor sentiment.“
Loblaw shares fell 5.5 per cent on Wednesday after it reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the quarter of $1.885-billion, up from $1.698-billion a year ago but below both Mr. Shreedar’s $1.941-billion estimate and the consensus of $1.906-billion. Consolidated revenue of $16.612-billion also fell short of expectations ($16.92-billion and $16.772-billion, respectively).
With the results and guidance, he maintained his 2026 EPS forecast of $2.60 while raising his 2027 projection by 6 cents to $2.82.
His target for Loblaw shares to $67 from $66 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $71.
“We maintain a favourable view on L reflecting: (i) Benefits from improvement initiatives; (ii) Ongoing stable EPS growth; and (iii) Favourable medium-term trends in discount and drug store (where L over-indexes). Given an uncertain macro backdrop, we favour proven staples such as L to add resiliency to portfolios,” he said.
Elsewhere, other changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li to $70 from $67 with a “buy” rating.
“We believe L’s premium valuation (approximately 24 times forward P/E vs 18 times for MRU and 14 times for EMP.A) is supported by its consistent execution, high earnings visibility and attractive asset mix,” said Mr. Li. “Tailwinds from genericization of GLP-1 drugs, automated DC efficiencies, supply chain as a service, T&T etc also make the story appealing for long-term investors. We believe further multiple expansion is likely limited, with share price appreciation driven by EPS growth (8–10 per cent). Funds flow and increasing competition are key risks.”
* Scotia’s John Zamparo to $70 from $68 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Loblaw faces the same industry headwinds as peers, though missing on all SSS metrics and, importantly, GM%, paired with an 26 times forward P/E multiple set the stock up for a very different reaction in this quarter (down 5 per cent) compared to Q3’s food SSS miss (up 3 per cent),” said Mr. Zamparo. “Another key difference this quarter vs. last was Shoppers, which saw a slowing of Rx SSS and a front-end miss. We still expect L to hit a 9-per-cent EPS CAGR through ‘27 (when adjusting for fiscal year lengths), and our EPS estimates for ‘26 and ‘27 are barely changed. We doubt investors’ views on long-term growth drivers have wavered, and ours haven’t either, though a higher valuation raises the bar for a stock that’s done extremely well over the LTM. We maintain our SO rating; our target moves to $70 on similar EPS but a turn higher on our P/E multiple to reflect those superior long-term growth drivers.”
While Ventum Capital Markets’ Amr Ezzat concluded Exchange Income Corp.’s (EIF-T) fourth quarter of 2025 was “already a quality print,” he thinks the conference call with analysts “added two important layers that support a higher long-term earnings trajectory.”
“First, management reinforced that 2026 guidance remains grounded in contracted wins and funded investments, with the new bias to the mid-to-upper end explicitly tied to the Mach2 acquisition and the expanded Air Canada agreement,” he said. “Second, the call materially broadened the defence and nation-building narrative beyond Aerospace and Aviation. Management was clear that sovereign priorities are increasingly portfolio-wide, with Manufacturing positioned to participate through northern logistics, tower and radar infrastructure, precision components for defence and space, and enabling infrastructure tied to critical minerals and transmission build-out.”
Shares of the Winnipeg-based company jumped 6.8 per cent on Wednesday after it reported revenue of $929.5-million for the quarter, up 35.2 per cent year-over-year and exceeding both Mr. Ezzat’s $899-million estimate and the consensus of $877-million. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share of $1.04 was lower than the analyst’s $1.25 estimate but higher than the Street’s projection of $1.02.
However, Exchange Income’s guidance caught the most attention as it expressed a bias toward the mid-to-upper end of its adjusted EBITDA range of $825-$875-million following the recent acquisition MnM Aircraft Component Holdings Inc. (MACH 2) and the extension and expansion of the Air Canada commercial agreement.
“They repeatedly returned to the principle that guidance is based on contracted wins and funded investments, and that incremental defence-related initiatives, ISR awards, radar tower build-outs, and northern development activity would be additive rather than pre-baked into the base case,” said Mr. Ezzat.
“Defence and sovereign themes are now being positioned as portfolio-wide, not segment-specific. The call leaned heavily into a ‘Made in Canada’ Arctic security and sovereignty solution, with active discussions underway and an emphasis on Indigenous partnerships and existing northern operating infrastructure. Importantly, management broadened the conversation beyond ISR aircraft, highlighting that defence and nation-building priorities can translate into incremental demand for northern logistics and mobility, digital mission systems, training, in-service support, and a growing set of manufacturing-led infrastructure opportunities.”
Keeping his “buy” rating for its shares, Mr. Ezzat raised his target price to a high on the Street of $135 from $110 on higher forecasts, “reflecting improving visibility across Canadian North integration, stronger Manufacturing momentum, and a structurally better capital position following investment grade status and the new unsecured $3.5-billion facility.” The average target is $104.57.
“Our target implies a 2026/2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.9 times/9.7 times, which we view as conservative given the durability of the base business, rising embedded ISR optionality, and EIF’s expanding capacity to deploy capital accretively,” he concluded.
Elsewhere, others making target revisions include:
* RBC’s James McGarragle to $133 from $103 with an “outperform” rating.
" Q4 results came in strong and management tightened guidance to the mid to high end on contract wins and M&A, in addition to strong trends in Manufacturing in our view. Key is that we believe guidance is conservative given the breadth of opportunities and defence strategy tailwinds that align well with EIF’s core competencies in both aerospace and manufacturing. Furthermore, we see the company’s IG credit rating supporting growth long term, giving the company access to cheaper fixed rate debt and therefore reducing the likelihood of equity raises associated with large organic investments and/or M&A," said Mr. McGarragle.
* National Bank Financial’s Cameron Doerksen to $125 from $110 with an “outperform” rating.
“Our positive view is based on the following: (1) EIC has strong visibility on growth with 2026 EBITDA expected to be $825-$875 million versus $754 million in 2025; (2) Beyond 2026, we see numerous new organic growth opportunities related to new aerial surveillance contracts, growth in Northern Canada, and activity related to Canada’s ’Nation-Building’ projects; (3) With the recent extension and upsizing of the company’s credit facility and improved access to debt capital markets with a recent investment-grade rating, the company is well positioned to continue to pursue M&A as well as organic growth initiatives,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* TD Tim James’ to $125 from $102 with a “buy” rating.
“No change to bullish view. Exchange provides exposure to numerous growth and longterm investment themes that also limit consumer or tariff-related risk. Recent contract wins, acquisitions, U.S. composite mat demand, Canadian rental mat outlook and Precision Manufacturing should contribute to growth in 2026. We think multiple expansion justified and view stock as attractive in current environment,” said Mr. James.
* Raymond James’ Steve Hansen to $125 from $110 with a “strong buy rating.
“We are increasing our target price on Exchange Income Corporation (EIC) to $125.00 (vs. $110.00 prior) and reiterating our Strong Buy rating based upon the firm’s: 1) record 4Q25 print; 2) unique exposure to accelerating defense & security tailwinds; 3) rich embedded growth prospects; 3) catalyst-rich outlook; and 4) longstanding track record. While we recognize EIF’s shares have surged 37.5 per cent over the past 3 wks (vs. the S&P/TSX Comp: up 10.4 per cent), we don’t view the company’s valuation as excessive. In fact, with a broad range of transformative growth opportunities still on the horizon (none built into estimates) we continue to see solid value,” said Mr. Hansen.
* Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $121 from $105 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“We maintain our SO rating while raising our target ... on our increased long-term forecasts and a slight multiple expansion to 9.5 times (was 9.0 times), reflecting EIF’s rising growth opportunities, particularly from Arctic surveillance, geopolitical developments, critical minerals in the North, infrastructure buildout in Canada, and global aircraft/engine parts/leasing,” said Mr. Gupta. “In addition, the company remains well-positioned to make more acquisitions in both aviation and manufacturing end-markets, with a strong balance sheet. We continue to view EIF as a growth compounder, which is trading at an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x-10x on our three-year estimates.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $116 from $109 with a “buy” rating.
“The quarter largely reinforced our belief that EIF is becoming an increasingly catalyst-rich story as we step into F26 with contributions from new ISR contracts, CN synergies, and northern Canadian infrastructure projects creating the potential for significant upward estimate revisions. Post-quarter, we have modestly raised our numbers and now sit slightly above the high end of guidance,” said Mr. Lee.
* BMO’s Michael Goldie to $100 from $80 with a “market perform” rating.
“Momentum for EIC appears to be building, particularly into 2027 and beyond. Despite this, we remain Market Perform on valuation concerns with shares having now expanded 12-turns on a P/E basis to 26 times. While we think there is upside potential to numbers, we see markets as having already priced in this opportunity,” said Mr. Goldie.
* ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Jeff Fenwick to $125 from $120 with a “buy” rating.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $120 from $106 with an “outperformer” rating.
Following a “strong finish” to 2025 and “solid” outlook for the current year, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Pammi Bir thinks Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) “remains well-positioned amid fragile equity markets.”
“Organic growth should remain in solid shape across its core LTC [long-term care] and retirement segments, supported by demand/supply imbalances that will likely extend through our forecast period,” he said. “After a productive year of acquisitions and developments, portfolio high-grading will likely also continue. All said, valuation seems well-supported by a strong growth outlook, while insulation from AI-related fears is likely also driving inflows; that said, we would prefer a better entry.”
Last week, Sienna reported same-property net operating income grew 10.1 per cent year-over-year and 9.1 per cent year-to-date, excluding one-time charges, which Mr. Bir attributed to “robust advances from retirement” (up 15.4 per cent year-over-year) and LTC (rising 5.6 per cent).
“Higher occupancy, rents, and care revenue carried the load in retirement, with SP NOI [same-property net operating income] margins rising to 40.6 per cent (up 300 basis points year-over-year) and 39.8 per cent year-to-date (up 250 basis points year-over-year),” he added. “For 2026, SIA sees SP retirement NOI growth at more than 10 per cent and up 100-150 bps in NOI margins, supported by occupancy in the 95 per cent plus range and 4-per-cent rent growth. With demand tailwinds at its back, muted new supply, and 3-4-per-cent operating expense growth, the guide looks achievable. As well, January SP-occupancy was 95.2 per cent, while flu season appears to have had limited impact. In LTC, SIA’s call for low-single-digit percentage organic NOI growth seems fair, supported by inflationary-type govt funding increases.”
In a client report released Thursday titled Firmly planted amid fragile markets, Mr. Bir predicted the Markham, Ont.-based company will have “likely another active year of capital deployment ahead.”
“SIA completed $193-million of retirement and LTC acquisitions at a 6-per-cent cap in Q4 ($595-million year-to-date at 6.2 per cent), alongside $208-million of mostly LTC developments (8.3-per-cent yield) in the year. A further $79-million of acquisitions are closed/under contract through Q1/26, including a GTA retirement home (The Bartlett) for $59-million ($461K/suite, 5.75-per-cent cap rate). With SIA citing a ‘robust’ pipeline, 2026 could be another active year of acquisitions, with partial funding through its upsized $150-million ATM. Improved govt funding will also enable SIA to kick-off its largest LTC redevelopment to date, a $250-million project in Toronto at an attractive 7.5-8-per-cent target yield (2030 completion)."
Maintaining his “sector perform” rating for Sienna shares, Mr. Bir raised his target to $25 from $22. The average target is $25.57.
“As AI disruption fears escalate in other corners of the market, inflows to seniors housing/healthcare REITs/REOCs appear to have picked-up, adding to the already strong appetite from solid fundamentals,” he said. “SIA trades at 10-per-cent P/NAV (18 times 2026 estimated AFFO/6.5-per-cent implied cap), below its peer (27 per cent P/NAV) but ahead of our universe (negative 9 per cent). We see valuation as well-supported by its improving growth profile, portfolio mix, and strong balance sheet.”
Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti says intermediate and mid-tier gold producers are his preferred group for growth at a reasonable price (GARP) exposure, “along with selected high-quality developers with favorable jurisdictional appeal.”
“In a market that prices gold in response to geopolitical risks and structural shifts in financial asset diversification, we believe underlying fundamentals remain supported by four themes: (1) monetary easing cycles; (2) strategic Central Bank accumulation; (3) increasing institutional asset allocation; and (4) gold’s role as an essential hedge against fragmentation in regional economic and financial markets and as a necessary defensive hedge against ‘Big Tech’ cyclical growth exposure in 2026,” he added.
“While senior producers remain the ‘blue-chip’ anchors, we believe well-capitalized, growth-oriented, intermediate (0.5-2.0Moz/year) and mid-tier (0.1-0.5Moz/year) gold producers are best positioned to offer a compelling risk reward tradeoff on relative valuation, leverage to higher gold prices, upside to reserves life, exploration catalysts and M&A re-rating potential. We estimate intermediate and mid-tier gold producers are trading at a P/ NAV of 0.81 times and a 20-per-cent discount vs. senior gold producers (more than 2.0Moz/year) compared to the historical average discount of 32 per cent.”
In a client report released Thursday, Mr. Profiti initiated coverage of a pair of companies with “buy” ratings.
* Hemlo Mining Corp. (HMMC-X) with a $12 target. The average target is $9.75.
Analyst: “HMMC is transitioning the historic Hemlo Complex from a non-core Barrick asset into an undervalued, high-beta, optimization and exploration focused mid-tier gold producer within a Tier-1 Canadian jurisdiction. The current reserve statement represents a 45-per-cent increase over the 1.6Moz (32Mt @ 1.60g/t Au) previously reported by Barrick. HMMC is well-funded with $140-million in current cash and a $225-million debt facility supported by strong industry partners: Orion Mine Finance (7.8 per cent) and Wheaton Precious Metals (4.7 per cent), with management and Board maintaining a 4.4-per-cent stake. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating at TP $12.00 anchored on five core investment catalysts: (1) potential to grow mineable ounces by 40 per cent; (2) mine/mill and infrastructure optimization opportunities targeting throughput increases of 20 per cent to 4,800tpd by end-2026 and 25 per cent to 6,000tpd by end-2027; (3) priority resource-to-reserve conversion through targeted infill drilling and selective confirmation drilling; (4) underappreciated near-term, near-surface B-Zone Footwall, and B-Zone and C-Zone exploration upside at depth; and (5) significant district-scale exploration upside from its 45,000ha land package.”
* Fuerte Metals Corp. (FMT-X) with a $14 target. Average: $14.
Analyst: “FMT is positioned as a premier Canadian gold developer whose primary focus is advancement of the newly acquired, preliminary economic assessment (PEA) level Coffee Project in Yukon, Canada, which secures a high-grade, multi-millionounce oxide gold asset that benefited from over $300-million in historical investment, advanced permitting status and established infrastructure. We expect successful advancement through permitting and technical studies, including a recently released PEA and future feasibility studies, with a construction decision in early-2027 and first gold production in 2030. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating at TP 14.00 anchored on five core investment catalysts: (1) leveraging a robust high-grade resource with upside potential; (2) strong First Nations support to advance the project through permitting; (3) a clear path to production with technical de-risked (straightforward) parameters; (4) strong project cash flow generation potential and leverage to gold prices; and (5) significant district-scale exploration upside.”
Following a “high-quality” fourth-quarter 2025 beat with adjusted EBITDA exceeding the Street’s forecast by 19 per cent “despite industry-wide pressures,” ATB Cormark Capital Markets analyst Frederico Gomes raised his rating for Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTII-CN) to “top pick” from “outperform” previously.
“Green Thumb delivered a robust Q4/25 beat, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding consensus by 5 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively,” he said. “Top-line strength was fueled by retail sales growth (up 5.4 per cent year-over-year; up 8.6 per cent quarter-over-quarter), bolstered by the Minnesota adult-use launch and momentum in OH, NY, and FL which more than offset price compression and intensified competition (SSS [same-store sales] down 1.8 per cent year-over-year). The quarter’s centerpiece was a sharp reversal in gross margins; after four consecutive quarters of compression (sliding from 53.7 per cent in Q4/24 to 49.4 per cent in Q3/25), we estimate adjusted gross margins rebounded to 52.7 per cent after normalizing for RYM licensing fees and non-cash catchup leasehold depreciation adjustments. This recovery propelled adj. EBITDA margins to 30.0 per cent, significantly outperforming the 26.5 per cent consensus and prior guidance (below 30 per cent), even as the company initiated RYM licensing payments of $6.8-million (expected to scale to $10.5-million/quarter in 2026e).
“While results were strong, the decision to cease 280E tax payments introduces a new Uncertain Tax Position (UTP) overhang, eliminating a historical differentiator for the stock. We remain cautious on the 2026 outlook, as full-quarter RYM fees and persistent price compression could pull adjusted EBITDA margins toward the 25 per cent level. Nevertheless, even factoring this, we believe GTII offers the most compelling risk-reward among MSOs given its superior balance sheet, consistent FCF generation, and track record of operating efficiencies.”
Mr. Gomes increased his target for Green Thumb shares to $19 from $16.50. The average is $17.43.
“Green Thumb is distinguished by a strong balance sheet (net cash) and track record of FCF generation,“ he concluded. ”While industry-wide price compression and competitive pressures have recently impacted margins, Green Thumb’s financial flexibility acts as a moat, enabling investment in innovation, opportunistic M&A, and share repurchases while certain capital-starved competitors struggle"
In other analyst actions:
* Citing valuation concerns, Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild downgraded BTB REIT (BTB.UN-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $4.25 target (unchanged) following the release of in-line fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. The average target on the Street is $3.67.
“We now utilize a blended cap rate of 7.20 per cent to value BTB’s portfolio, and our NAV per unit estimate is $4.12, from $3.97 previously,” he said. “Our price target remains $4.25, set at a slight premium to our NAV estimate. Over the past year, BTB units have generated a return of 37.8 per cent, above the average of 11.7 per cent for diversified peers and the REIT index of 14.9 per cent. Reflecting the more modest total return expected, we are reducing our rating to HOLD from BUY.
“BTB’s units currently trade at an implied cap rate of 7.2 per cent or a 1.4-per-cent premium to our NAV estimate of $4.12. This compares to the REIT’s peers, which trade at a discount to NAV of, on average, 27.8 per cent. On cash flow multiple basis, BTB currently trades at 10.9 times our estimate of 2027 AFFO, compared to, on average, 13.1 times for its peers.”
* National Bank’s Gabriel Dechaine raised his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $120 from $111 with a “sector perform” rating, while TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca cut his target to $132 from $138 with a “buy” rating. The average is $114.56.
“EPS beat consensus by $0.08 (lower by $0.03 vs. our estimate) on much better operatin leverage. However, the credit picture deteriorated. While overall PCLs were down q/q, we think investors will focus on higher early stage personal loan delinquencies and another large formation in commercial loans. We like EQB on strong buying activity (buybacks/Loblaw) & PC deal, but acknowledge that credit is an issue,” said Mr. Mendonca.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier raised his Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) target to $126 from $117, exceeding the $112.66 average, with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: BMO’s Fadi Chamoun to $94 from $90 with a “market perform” rating, Scotia’s Konark Gupta to $118 from $115 with a “sector outperform” rating and Stifel’s Daryl Young to $120 from $100 with a “buy” rating.
“While uncertainties remain in 2026, Cargojet remains disciplined, agile and on the lookout for new revenue opportunities using its current fleet (mostly international). While the sustainability/timeline of tailwinds from the MD-11 retirement at UPS remains unclear, the new revenue mix remains favourable on profitability, causing us to revise upward our margin assumptions. We expect management to continue to be disciplined in terms of capex (gross capex of $190–210-million for 2026) and in terms of capital deployment,” said Mr. Poirier.
* BMO’s John Gibson raised his Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) target to $35 from $27 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $26.
“Enerflex delivered another excellent quarter, with deliveries appearing strong into 2026. On that note, the company received a power generation order in the U.S. during Q1/26 (size not disclosed), and has completed additional work for several other data center projects across its Engineered Systems (ES) division. Given the strong quarter and outlook, we expect EFX to continue delivering on ES growth, while its recurring businesses continue moving forward,” said Mr. Gibson.
* Raymond James’ Steven Li reduced his Knet.com Inc. (KSI-T) target to $5.50 from $7 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $5.75.
* TD Cowen’s Mario Mendonca raised his National Bank of Canada (NA-T) target to $182 from $175 with a “hold” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee to $191 from $180 with a “hold” rating, BMO’s Sohrab Movahedi to $195 from $177 with an “outperform” rating, Barclays’ Brian Morton to $183 from $177 with an “equalweight” rating, Scotia’s Mike Rizvanovic to $202 from $188 with a “sector outperform” rating, Raymond James’ Stephen Boland to $200 from $179 with a “market perform” rating and Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young to $200 from $182 with a “buy” rating. The average is $180.45.
“We believe NA put out a very good set of results this quarter with the key highlights being (1) a big beat in Canadian P&C Banking on top-line growth, expense improvement, and slightly better PCLs; (2) strength in market-sensitive businesses with constructive guidance moving forward; (3) an updated pathway to a 17-per-cent ROE in F2027 that now looks more achievable; (4) very positive context on CWB-related cost/funding synergies that we believe can potentially go beyond the current target of $270-million by the end of F2026; (5) strong balance sheet growth far exceeding peers that have reported Q1 results; and (6) an upsized share buyback program to 4 per cent, which we believe investors will view favorably. With that said, our EPS forecasts for NA move higher through F2027, our PT increases, and our positive bias on the stock remains as we still rate the shares Sector Outperform,” said Mr. Rizvanovic.
* Acumen Capital’s Trevor Reynolds raised his Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) target to $10.50, exceeding the $9.16 average, from $7.50, with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller to $9 from $8.50 with a “hold” rating, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $11.50 from $9.50 with an “outperform” rating, Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch to $10.50 from $10 with a “buy” rating and National Bank’s Dan Payne to $11.50 from $10 with an “outperform” rating.
“Results for the quarter were generally inline with expectations. Strong reserves update driven by extensions and improved recovery in the Clearwater (Primary & Waterflood) along with positive technical revisions,” said Mr. Reynolds.
“The focus remains on continued execution of the capital plan and return of capital framework.”
* Seeing Timbercreek Financial Corp. (TF-T) “still in transition,” National Bank’s Jaime Gloyn cut his target to $8 from $8.25 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $7.88.
" This is a difficult quarter that reflects a loan portfolio still in transition (EPS miss, elevated impaired loans, FV losses). That said, the portfolio delivered healthy growth (net mortgage investments up 17 per cent quarter-over-quarter) and stable distributable income that exceeded the common dividend," said Mr. Gloyn.
* In a post-earnings update titled Staying the Course, RBC’s Michael Harvey increased his Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T) target by $2 to $34 with an “outperform” rating, while Desjardins Securities’ Chris MacCulloch raised his target to $32.50 from $31 with a “buy” rating.. The average is $32.79.
“TPZ announced Q4/25 results that were largely in line with street expectations, posting volumes of 23,399 boe/d (Street: 23,140) to drive CFPS of $0.52 that was ahead of Street estimates of $0.50. During quarter, TPZ completed the acquisition of several small GORR and mineral title royalty interests for total cash consideration of $8-million. The dividend was maintained at $0.34/sh, representing a 65-per-cent payout ratio. We maintain our Outperform rating and increase out target price to $34 on increased estimates and potential for multiple expansion as the company builds on a record of successive strong quarters,” said Mr. Harvey.
* RBC’s Paul Treiber cut his Topicus.com Inc. (TOI-X) target to $150 from $160 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $145.
“In a software market where beats are ignored and misses are punished, Topicus reported a largely in line Q4,” said Mr. Treiber. “Organic growth and margins were slightly ahead of our expectations, while contribution from M&A was marginally light. As a result, our estimates are effectively unchanged. Maintain Outperform, given Topicus’s likely continued compounding of capital at high rates. Our price target moves from C$160.00 to C$150.00 to reflect the continued downwards valuation re-rating of software peers.”
* Ventum Capital Markets’ Amr Ezzat raised his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to $35 from $30 with a “buy” rating. Other changes include: Raymond James’ Michael Glen to $35 from $29 with an “outperform” rating and Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk to $34 from $31 with a “buy” rating. The average is $30.50.
“The Q4 call reinforced that 2025 was not a one-off phenomenon, and that the next leg of the story is increasingly about duration. Management used the call to sharpen the framework around what matters from here,” said Mr. Ezzat. “First, 2026 growth is being underwritten by contracted demand in renewable energy and space, with release timing driving the expected H2 weighting and the remainder of the portfolio framed deliberately and conservatively. Second, incremental strategic programs, particularly germanium recycling and refining and broader defence-adjacent opportunities, are real and expanding, but the financial contribution is staged and weighted to 2028 and beyond. Third, the Q4 step-down in Specialty Semiconductors margin was largely self-inflicted and consistent with what was telegraphed in Q3, tied primarily to accelerated preventive maintenance with only a modest mix impact.”